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  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Since Austria have equalised, the possibility of playing Portugal hoves into view for England if Portugal can equalise again.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    HurstLlama said:

    @Peter_From_Putney

    "... Big population growth in Putney & Wandsworth over the last 2 - 3 years, mainly into new build flats ..."

    Crikey, Mr. Putney, that was my home turf and I don't remember any space (other than Wimbledon Common and Putney Heath) for new builds. Where have all those new flats been built?

    Huge riverside builds in Wandsworth, and in Putney, on the Upper Richmond Rd, west of of the High St. and also on Roehampton Lane.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    John_N4 said:

    image .

    sweetheart, those are movements of a fraction of a cent. It's probably because a trader paused to smell his fingers after scratching his butt
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    And Portugal have duly equalised!
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Since Austria have equalised, the possibility of playing Portugal hoves into view for England if Portugal can equalise again.

    When I looked at this two nights ago, I thought the possibility of Portugal overtaking Iceland with both teams drawing looked remote. Not now.
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Baskerville said:

    Wandsworth: postal votes received by one hour ago, 37,000, turnout 78%.

    Is that 78% of those who applied for a postal vote? I don't know why you'd go to the trouble of applying for one if you're not going to use it.
    The days when 90%+ of postal votes came back are long gone. Postal votes are essentially issued on demand nowadays, and lots of people have postal votes who don't use them, especially people who wanted one once but end up signed up in perpetuity - typical turnout would be around 75%, but for this referendum I think 80% would be a reasonable estimate.
    I believe 86% were returned in 2015.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Four goals in 15 mins :o
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    I've finally stuck some money on Leave. The Indyref veteran in me thinks it will be 55-45...
  • Jason
    Jason Posts: 1,614
    First great match of the tournament - about time!!!!!!!
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Freggles Unless either Iceland or Austria score, we won't play either Portugal or Hungary.

    We're now playing Portugal.
  • Jason
    Jason Posts: 1,614
    OK Hill's just shifted - no much, though - 2/7
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Several bookies now have LEAVE down to 3.5 (5/2). Shortest price for a week.
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    FrankBooth said:

    It's odd. The odds aren't that different to the Scottish referendum yet the polls are much more favourable to leave than was the case with the Indyref - did they ever lead in more than one YouGov poll?

    Thing is the polls were WRONG last year. Plenty of people would have been kicking themselves for not going with their instincts - Miliband no chance, Lib Dems massacre because the polls said otherwise. But what if the polls are RIGHT this time? And we have a set of punters trying to read the tea leaves thinking that the British are surely far too small c conservative to consider leaving. Aren't they?

    Apart from a period in the middle of the month where Leave was higher the average poll for this referendum has been split essentially 50/50 for a couple of months, with variation for individual polls. Indyref at a similar point was 53% for No. The actual result came in at 55%. If this referendum follows a similar pattern it will be a dead heat. But the two referendums haven't behaved in completely the same way so far.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Charles said:

    John_N4 said:

    image .

    sweetheart, those are movements of a fraction of a cent. It's probably because a trader paused to smell his fingers after scratching his butt
    Too much information, thank you!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2016
    El_Dave said:

    HYUFD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA

    Quel surprise?

    I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.
    TNS had a bigger Leave lead in their poll last week
    Different numbers. Last week was likely voters, this week is all registered voters.

    Likely voters is 49% vs 42%.

    https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/745663086711943168/photo/1


    That was what they were showing last week too. The poll also started on 16th June so about a week ago
  • El_Dave
    El_Dave Posts: 145
    This looks interesting:

    "To understand any potential ‘last minute swing’ on Thursday 23rd June, TNS have set up an Election Day Voter Panel, consisting of 200 people who intend to vote in the EU Referendum.

    Panellists have submitted a video during the last week outlining how they intend to vote in the referendum on Thursday and the reasons for their voting intention. After voting on the 23rd, they will submit a second video confirming their voting behaviour and explaining the reasons behind any late change. TNS will release the initial findings at 10:00pm on Thursday 23rd June."

    http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/press-release/turnout-key-eu-referendum
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I've finally stuck some money on Leave. The Indyref veteran in me thinks it will be 55-45...

    To leave ?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Polls are looking "interesting"
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    brokenwheel said:

    https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/745663954576351233

    Clear as mud.

    It's worse for REMAIN.

    Put a gun to my head now and I'd probably call this for LEAVE.
    Yep, not good polls for Remain. Still great value for Leave (but falling so better move quick!)

    See, is that the fourth time you've changed your mind over recent weeks?
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    peter_from_putney said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @Peter_From_Putney

    "... Big population growth in Putney & Wandsworth over the last 2 - 3 years, mainly into new build flats ..."

    Crikey, Mr. Putney, that was my home turf and I don't remember any space (other than Wimbledon Common and Putney Heath) for new builds. Where have all those new flats been built?

    Huge riverside builds in Wandsworth, and in Putney, on the Upper Richmond Rd, west of of the High St. and also on Roehampton Lane.
    Thanks for that, Mr. Putney, I'll have to come up and have a look day.
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    HurstLlama said:

    FF43 said:

    HurstLlama said:

    FF43 said:



    Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.

    OK, I disagree with your view on the point of this site, but let us leave that alone for the moment.

    No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?

    This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.
    These are the kind of issues that pollsters grapple with. Older, better educated people don't necessarily fall out at the half way point. It's in their handling of that sort of aggregation that separates the more consistently accurate polling companies from those vaguely in the ballpark. Is polling a useless exercise? That's a point of view.
    If the polling can't get close to the actual result (in terms of the essentials) then perhaps it is a pointless exercise.

    However, I think it gets worse than that. Polling is now, and not just in politics, driving the narrative and investment decisions. It is becoming the news, the deciding factor, perhaps the shifter of opinion. If it is consistently wrong and, as demonstrated in 2015, even suppressing results because they don't fit what the company wants, then perhaps it becomes positively malignant.
    As I say, it's a point of view. The alternative to polling is wet seaweed.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Why can't pollsters keep their f**ing methodologies unchanged? This is confusing enough as it is.
  • John_N4
    John_N4 Posts: 553
    Weighting the TNS figures by likelihood to vote gives

    Leave 49%
    Remain 42%

    and surprisingly

    Men
    Leave 46%
    Remain 47%

    Women
    Leave 52%
    Remain 37%

    (Source.)
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm more and more pleased that I ordered that claret - gf so pleased she made some fresh houmous.

    Less pleased when I explained it wouldn't be here for a couple of years. Not sure how to break it to her that we won't be drinking it until at least 2020.

    I did wonder when @rcs1000 suggested using it to drown our sorrows...
    In 2020, you can raise a glass to Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn. Gulp!
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    El_Dave said:

    This looks interesting:

    "To understand any potential ‘last minute swing’ on Thursday 23rd June, TNS have set up an Election Day Voter Panel, consisting of 200 people who intend to vote in the EU Referendum.

    Panellists have submitted a video during the last week outlining how they intend to vote in the referendum on Thursday and the reasons for their voting intention. After voting on the 23rd, they will submit a second video confirming their voting behaviour and explaining the reasons behind any late change. TNS will release the initial findings at 10:00pm on Thursday 23rd June."

    http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/press-release/turnout-key-eu-referendum

    But being on such a panel may well influence your behaviour - eg you may not want to say you changed your mind.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    @jburnmurdoch: .@Cardtronics have been asking ATM users which way they'll vote in #EUref. 85,000(!) responses have it at 52-48 for Leave

    @jburnmurdoch: NEW: The companies finding new ways to poll #EUref, including ATM operator asking Remain or Leave while u wait for https://t.co/ntUReL5yXN
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Postal votes may well come back late. I was once involved in shredding them. The boss was most insistent that the evidence be destroyed.

    Huh??
    In knew it! They won't let us leave, even if we win!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. N4, those gender figures do look counter-intuitive.
  • El_Dave
    El_Dave Posts: 145
    John_N4 said:

    Weighting the TNS figures by likelihood to vote gives

    Leave 49%
    Remain 42%

    and surprisingly

    Men
    Leave 46%
    Remain 47%

    Women
    Leave 52%
    Remain 37%

    (Source.)

    The women figure looks unusual. I would expect that to lean remain if anything.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. N4, those gender figures do look counter-intuitive.

    Would women be more likely to switch to the status quo in the polling booth?
  • Blueberry
    Blueberry Posts: 408
    Interesting...

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 6m6 minutes ago
    Signs of a late gamble on 'Leave' which has attracted 70.4% of all bets struck on the outcome; Hills cut Leave from 3/1 to 11/4. Remain 1/4.

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 9m9 minutes ago
    Here's a nice stat from the William EU Ref book - average stake per Leave bet £77.54; average stake per Remain bet £408.45. #EURef
  • RoyalBlue
    RoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:

    @jburnmurdoch: .@Cardtronics have been asking ATM users which way they'll vote in #EUref. 85,000(!) responses have it at 52-48 for Leave

    @jburnmurdoch: NEW: The companies finding new ways to poll #EUref, including ATM operator asking Remain or Leave while u wait for https://t.co/ntUReL5yXN

    I guess Remainers are less likely to dirty their hands with cash, so probably tells us little.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That @Cardtronics approach is intriguing. One wonders how they weight it for demographics.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Cameron is such a muppet.

    Utter cock

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Ha, this made me smile (also Isabel Hardman was talking much sense on the Sky Papers the other night):
    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/745670551771938821
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    FF43 said:

    The alternative to polling is wet seaweed.

    The alternative to polling is insight, understanding, with a smattering of anecdote.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    nunu said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I've finally stuck some money on Leave. The Indyref veteran in me thinks it will be 55-45...

    To leave ?
    OK, I'll be serious and say Leave 52/53%. Swingback doesn't seem to be happening to the extent Remain needs, think the maths favours Leave.

    Level of EURef engagement in my bit of Edinburgh anecdote: I've seen a 2nd sign (LibDem Remain). There are still more signs left up from Indyref than any from this referendum. Suspect low turnout in Scotland, which doesn't help Remain.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Floater said:

    Cameron is such a muppet.

    Utter cock

    What has he done to displease you?
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Blueberry said:

    Interesting...

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 6m6 minutes ago
    Signs of a late gamble on 'Leave' which has attracted 70.4% of all bets struck on the outcome; Hills cut Leave from 3/1 to 11/4. Remain 1/4.

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 9m9 minutes ago
    Here's a nice stat from the William EU Ref book - average stake per Leave bet £77.54; average stake per Remain bet £408.45. #EURef

    I've backed Leave at a reasonable amount. A modest hedge against armageddon and the idiocy of my fellow countrymen a Leave vote.

    I can tell you right here that it doesn't betoken my voting Leave.

    I can't be the only one.
  • John_N4
    John_N4 Posts: 553
    El_Dave said:

    John_N4 said:

    Weighting the TNS figures by likelihood to vote gives

    Leave 49%
    Remain 42%

    and surprisingly

    Men
    Leave 46%
    Remain 47%

    Women
    Leave 52%
    Remain 37%

    (Source.)

    The women figure looks unusual. I would expect that to lean remain if anything.
    I thought they were peculiar too. They are on page 5.

    "Weighting if turnout pattern is similar to a General Election* - excluding those not registered to vote"

    "Voting intention for the EU referendum (including those leaning in a direction) - weighted by likelihood to vote Base: All adults in UK 18+ registered to vote"
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Ha, this made me smile (also Isabel Hardman was talking much sense on the Sky Papers the other night):
    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/745670551771938821

    I bet he put that jumper on expenses....
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jburnmurdoch: .@Cardtronics have been asking ATM users which way they'll vote in #EUref. 85,000(!) responses have it at 52-48 for Leave

    @jburnmurdoch: NEW: The companies finding new ways to poll #EUref, including ATM operator asking Remain or Leave while u wait for https://t.co/ntUReL5yXN

    That looks quite significant. It will be a *slightly* self-selecting group as LEAVERS may be more inclined to answer these questions, but the enormous size of the sample and the broad nature of it - all classes, everywhere - makes it salient.

    Another good poll for LEAVE.
    No, it's completely meaningless. For a start, Leavers will definitely be more inclined to answer. On the other hand, the demographics will be miles out (not enough oldies). One for the bin.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jburnmurdoch: .@Cardtronics have been asking ATM users which way they'll vote in #EUref. 85,000(!) responses have it at 52-48 for Leave

    @jburnmurdoch: NEW: The companies finding new ways to poll #EUref, including ATM operator asking Remain or Leave while u wait for https://t.co/ntUReL5yXN

    I guess Remainers are less likely to dirty their hands with cash, so probably tells us little.
    That's what I'm thinking. Cash in hand merchants vote leave.
  • El_Dave
    El_Dave Posts: 145
    williamglenn said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. N4, those gender figures do look counter-intuitive.

    Would women be more likely to switch to the status quo in the polling booth?
    Perhaps it just reflects that Leave have succeeded in neutralising the 'risky' tag that Project Fear have selling. Leave is not perceived as a risky option.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    El_Dave said:

    John_N4 said:

    Weighting the TNS figures by likelihood to vote gives

    Leave 49%
    Remain 42%

    and surprisingly

    Men
    Leave 46%
    Remain 47%

    Women
    Leave 52%
    Remain 37%

    (Source.)

    The women figure looks unusual. I would expect that to lean remain if anything.
    No way the gap is that big.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Glenn, I was more thinking that I'd expect (and prior polling supports) men being more for Leave and women being more for Remain, but the opposite is indicated in the figures below.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    I will believe the polls when I see the result. Late Changes of methodologies, wild swings etc etc etc...Basically nobody has a f##king clue in a two horse race.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    AlastairMeeks said:

    That @Cardtronics approach is intriguing. One wonders how they weight it for demographics.

    Presumably they can do something with the location of the ATM / the amount of money withdrawn?
  • DeClare
    DeClare Posts: 483
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jburnmurdoch: .@Cardtronics have been asking ATM users which way they'll vote in #EUref. 85,000(!) responses have it at 52-48 for Leave

    @jburnmurdoch: NEW: The companies finding new ways to poll #EUref, including ATM operator asking Remain or Leave while u wait for https://t.co/ntUReL5yXN

    That looks quite significant. It will be a *slightly* self-selecting group as LEAVERS may be more inclined to answer these questions, but the enormous size of the sample and the broad nature of it - all classes, everywhere - makes it salient.

    Another good poll for LEAVE.
    No, it's completely meaningless. For a start, Leavers will definitely be more inclined to answer. On the other hand, the demographics will be miles out (not enough oldies). One for the bin.
    Having fewer old-timers and rural folk makes it even better for Leave.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jburnmurdoch: .@Cardtronics have been asking ATM users which way they'll vote in #EUref. 85,000(!) responses have it at 52-48 for Leave

    @jburnmurdoch: NEW: The companies finding new ways to poll #EUref, including ATM operator asking Remain or Leave while u wait for https://t.co/ntUReL5yXN

    That looks quite significant. It will be a *slightly* self-selecting group as LEAVERS may be more inclined to answer these questions, but the enormous size of the sample and the broad nature of it - all classes, everywhere - makes it salient.

    Another good poll for LEAVE.
    No, it's completely meaningless. For a start, Leavers will definitely be more inclined to answer. On the other hand, the demographics will be miles out (not enough oldies). One for the bin.
    I was thinking with fewer oldies and poor people in the sample, that was a significantly bad "poll" for Remain....
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, I was more thinking that I'd expect (and prior polling supports) men being more for Leave and women being more for Remain, but the opposite is indicated in the figures below.

    Women live longer - more likely to be older?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    edited June 2016
    Mr. Urquhart, also worth noting long odds can still win. Perez was 6 for a podium in Azerbaijan, but he still got it.

    Edited extra bit: average age of women will be higher for that reason, but that's been the case throughout and earlier subsamples had women more for Remain, men more for Leave.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited June 2016
    tlg86 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jburnmurdoch: .@Cardtronics have been asking ATM users which way they'll vote in #EUref. 85,000(!) responses have it at 52-48 for Leave

    @jburnmurdoch: NEW: The companies finding new ways to poll #EUref, including ATM operator asking Remain or Leave while u wait for https://t.co/ntUReL5yXN

    I guess Remainers are less likely to dirty their hands with cash, so probably tells us little.
    That's what I'm thinking. Cash in hand merchants vote leave.
    Cash in hand merchants don't need to use ATMs - us bank transfer folk need to.
  • Fenster
    Fenster Posts: 2,115
    I must confess, even as a Brexiteer, that I thought the polls would've converged around a 53-47 (and growing) Remain victory split by now. The fact they haven' must be worrying for the Remain camp.

    If Comres goes with Leave then I do think Brexit is a possibility tomorrow. Earlier on today I thought Remain was going to edge it relatively comfortably.

    My Facebook page colours my view though - I see a lot of LEAVE posts and hardly anyone backing Remain.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    edited June 2016
    peter_from_putney said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    brokenwheel said:

    https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/745663954576351233

    Clear as mud.

    It's worse for REMAIN.

    Put a gun to my head now and I'd probably call this for LEAVE.
    Yep, not good polls for Remain. Still great value for Leave (but falling so better move quick!)

    See, is that the fourth time you've changed your mind over recent weeks?
    I still want Remain to win!! I've always been heavyweight on Leave from a betting perspective.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    tick tock...

    we get Portugal still... need a goal any goal...
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    tlg86 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jburnmurdoch: .@Cardtronics have been asking ATM users which way they'll vote in #EUref. 85,000(!) responses have it at 52-48 for Leave

    @jburnmurdoch: NEW: The companies finding new ways to poll #EUref, including ATM operator asking Remain or Leave while u wait for https://t.co/ntUReL5yXN

    I guess Remainers are less likely to dirty their hands with cash, so probably tells us little.
    That's what I'm thinking. Cash in hand merchants vote leave.
    Cash what is that? Never use the stuff, remind me how it works again?...

    Remember that nonsense at the general election over paying people in cash.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AlastairMeeks said:

    That @Cardtronics approach is intriguing. One wonders how they weight it for demographics.

    Mr. Meeks, isn't all the weighting done to get around the fact that one does not have a random sample? Would you therefore consider that a random sample of adults might be of more interest than an non-random sample that has been manipulated to fit someone's idea of what it should have been?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Ha, this made me smile (also Isabel Hardman was talking much sense on the Sky Papers the other night):
    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/745670551771938821

    That's an angle - who is Sebastian Payne?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Are we in the horrible position of wanting Portugal to get a late winner?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I will believe the polls when I see the result. Late Changes of methodologies, wild swings etc etc etc...Basically nobody has a f##king clue in a two horse race.

    Without the polls, most things to judge it on seem positive for Leave. 54-46 seems about right.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    MarqueeMark said:

    Are we in the horrible position of wanting Portugal to get a late winner?

    Come on Ronaldo, you beep beep beep beeeeeep .
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    I was thinking with fewer oldies and poor people in the sample, that was a significantly bad "poll" for Remain....

    It may be, but who knows? I'm not sure you will get fewer poorer people in the sample - I suspect they go to the cash machine more often, taking out small amounts, than the better off.

    It's impossible to say without anything to compare it to and without a detailed profile of respondents. As I said, one for the bin.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Fenster said:

    I must confess, even as a Brexiteer, that I thought the polls would've converged around a 53-47 (and growing) Remain victory split by now. The fact they haven' must be worrying for the Remain camp.

    If Comres goes with Leave then I do think Brexit is a possibility tomorrow. Earlier on today I thought Remain was going to edge it relatively comfortably.

    My Facebook page colours my view though - I see a lot of LEAVE posts and hardly anyone backing Remain.

    My Facebook heavily for "remain". I've posted some stuff relating to betting odds and told people to buy stuff priced fundamentally in USD sooner rather than later, oh and told everyone to vote but haven't done some of the ridiculous preaching I've seen going on.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Remain just tightened again.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Are we in the horrible position of wanting Portugal to get a late winner?

    Come on Ronaldo, you beep beep beep beeeeeep .
    I'm listening to it on the radio.

    A bit like being on here during one of the debates.

    Most of the atmosphere, some interesting analysis, but not like actually watching the thing.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @HurstLlama But this won't be a random sample for the reasons @Richard_Nabavi gives.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    SeanT said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That @Cardtronics approach is intriguing. One wonders how they weight it for demographics.

    I don't think you need to. It surely weights itself. Everyone, of all ages, everywhere, uses ATMs. It must be an almost perfectly random sample, apart from the very old and infirm.
    Quite so, Mr. T. and I should not be surprised if 52-48 to Leave was not the final result based on this simple polling method.

    Anyone who fancies a modest wager on the point will find me here again in an hour or two because now I have to go and cook dinner.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That @Cardtronics approach is intriguing. One wonders how they weight it for demographics.

    I don't think you need to. It surely weights itself. Everyone, of all ages, everywhere, uses ATMs. It must be an almost perfectly random sample, apart from the very old and infirm.
    It's an interesting approach, for sure.

    We'd need to know if certain demographic groups get considerably more ATM impressions - and opportunities to give their opinion - than others.

    Some people take a chunk of cash out every fortnight, others take tenner out every lunchtime etc etc.

  • Pauly
    Pauly Posts: 897
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was thinking with fewer oldies and poor people in the sample, that was a significantly bad "poll" for Remain....

    It may be, but who knows? I'm not sure you will get fewer poorer people in the sample - I suspect they go to the cash machine more often, taking out small amounts, than the better off.

    It's impossible to say without anything to compare it to and without a detailed profile of respondents. As I said, one for the bin.
    Aren't older people more likely to use cash too, so there will be so many factors who really knows...
  • YBarddCwsc
    YBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was thinking with fewer oldies and poor people in the sample, that was a significantly bad "poll" for Remain....

    It may be, but who knows? I'm not sure you will get fewer poorer people in the sample - I suspect they go to the cash machine more often, taking out small amounts, than the better off.

    Surely they have a filter meaning you can only vote once. In which case, frequency of visits does not matter.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was thinking with fewer oldies and poor people in the sample, that was a significantly bad "poll" for Remain....

    It may be, but who knows? I'm not sure you will get fewer poorer people in the sample - I suspect they go to the cash machine more often, taking out small amounts, than the better off.

    It's impossible to say without anything to compare it to and without a detailed profile of respondents. As I said, one for the bin.
    These days people use contactless to buy anything from a skinny latte to a pound of apples at Sainsburys.

    Not sure you can draw any conclusion from who queues up at a cashpoint. Problem FOBT gamblers, perhaps?
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA

    Remain are dead unless the polls have been getting likelihood to vote wrong somehow. Not a hope. Postal votes probably for Leave and no more time for any convincing equals very good or Leave
    Don't forget DKs!
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I will believe the polls when I see the result. Late Changes of methodologies, wild swings etc etc etc...Basically nobody has a f##king clue in a two horse race.

    Without the polls, most things to judge it on seem positive for Leave. 54-46 seems about right.
    I honestly haven't a clue. Initially I thought remain would win easily, as I expected the campaign we got of the government leveraging it's power backed by all those who don't want change / uncertainty. But instead the polls have gone the opposite way the more the establishment throw their weight behind remain.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    edited June 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I will believe the polls when I see the result. Late Changes of methodologies, wild swings etc etc etc...Basically nobody has a f##king clue in a two horse race.

    Without the polls, most things to judge it on seem positive for Leave. 54-46 seems about right.
    I honestly haven't a clue. Initially I thought remain would win easily, as I expected the campaign we got of the government leveraging it's power backed by all those who don't want change / uncertainty. But instead the polls have gone the opposite way the more the establishment throw their weight behind remain.
    Yep it's a coin toss between an actual change of opinion, and braveheart poll responders.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Topping, isn't that mostly a London-thing, or has the witchcraft of contactless easytheftpayment spread elsewhere?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Pong said:

    SeanT said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That @Cardtronics approach is intriguing. One wonders how they weight it for demographics.

    I don't think you need to. It surely weights itself. Everyone, of all ages, everywhere, uses ATMs. It must be an almost perfectly random sample, apart from the very old and infirm.
    It's an interesting approach, for sure.

    We'd need to know if certain demographic groups get considerably more ATM impressions - and opportunities to give their opinion - than others.

    Some people take a chunk of cash out every fortnight, others take tenner out every lunchtime etc etc.

    It might undersample remainers, but who knows.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    edited June 2016
    Well uncle Roy that decision to rest 6 players looks like it was tactical genius. At least the players will get a longer holiday & be fresh for next season.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    edited June 2016
    TOPPING said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I will believe the polls when I see the result. Late Changes of methodologies, wild swings etc etc etc...Basically nobody has a f##king clue in a two horse race.

    Without the polls, most things to judge it on seem positive for Leave. 54-46 seems about right.
    I honestly haven't a clue. Initially I thought remain would win easily, as I expected the campaign we got of the government leveraging it's power backed by all those who don't want change / uncertainty. But instead the polls have gone the opposite way the more the establishment throw their weight behind remain.
    Yep it's a coin toss between an actual change of opinion, and braveheart poll responders.
    Braveheart? :lol:

    In the Year of Our Lord 2016, English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef.

    They fought like warrior poets.

    They fought like Britons.

    And they won their FREEDOM!
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TOPPING said:

    These days people use contactless to buy anything from a skinny latte to a pound of apples at Sainsburys.

    Not sure you can draw any conclusion from who queues up at a cashpoint. Problem FOBT gamblers, perhaps?

    In addition, these aren't bank ATMs. That's going to skew it even more:

    http://www.cardtronics.com/about/united-kingdom.asp
  • Blueberry
    Blueberry Posts: 408
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Topping, isn't that mostly a London-thing, or has the witchcraft of contactless easytheftpayment spread elsewhere?

    You still need cash for the farmers' market.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
  • mwjfrome17
    mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    its about 74-26 on betfair.....
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Iceland!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Hah!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Go Iceland!!
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    Iceland - never in doubt
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was thinking with fewer oldies and poor people in the sample, that was a significantly bad "poll" for Remain....

    It may be, but who knows? I'm not sure you will get fewer poorer people in the sample - I suspect they go to the cash machine more often, taking out small amounts, than the better off.

    It's impossible to say without anything to compare it to and without a detailed profile of respondents. As I said, one for the bin.
    These days people use contactless to buy anything from a skinny latte to a pound of apples at Sainsburys.

    Not sure you can draw any conclusion from who queues up at a cashpoint. Problem FOBT gamblers, perhaps?
    Contactless has a limit of £30 in the UK.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Iceland :o
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    Looks for the edit button....come on England, we can do it...
  • Fenster
    Fenster Posts: 2,115
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    I must confess, even as a Brexiteer, that I thought the polls would've converged around a 53-47 (and growing) Remain victory split by now. The fact they haven' must be worrying for the Remain camp.

    If Comres goes with Leave then I do think Brexit is a possibility tomorrow. Earlier on today I thought Remain was going to edge it relatively comfortably.

    My Facebook page colours my view though - I see a lot of LEAVE posts and hardly anyone backing Remain.

    My Facebook heavily for "remain". I've posted some stuff relating to betting odds and told people to buy stuff priced fundamentally in USD sooner rather than later, oh and told everyone to vote but haven't done some of the ridiculous preaching I've seen going on.
    My Facebook (just checked, a grouping of 1948 people) is about as representative of the working classes as you can get. I doubt any of my 'friends' follow politics as much as I do and none will earn above £80k per annum. Most below £25k.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Dr. Prasannan, let us not ape a film so historically wrongheaded it makes Mr. Eagles appear a scholar of history.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Go Iceland!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    We're going to be humiliated by a nation the size of Coventry xD
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited June 2016
    Would be sooo sweet if Portugal go out. Hah!

    Ah, they won't.. the table on the wiki hasn't been updated :(
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    Hodgson far sighted strategic genius? - Titters
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.

    Wish I could see it.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.

    There's a few Brexiters on my Facebook but most people are pro-EU. However all the Brexiters are working class. I don't know any middle class proud Brexiters.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2016
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA

    Remain are dead unless the polls have been getting likelihood to vote wrong somehow. Not a hope. Postal votes probably for Leave and no more time for any convincing equals very good or Leave
    Don't forget DKs!
    Indeed, undecideds almost always go more for the status quo in referendums in the end. ORB actually had Remain with a bigger lead with those certain to vote on Monday, with fieldwork which overlapped with TNS', the polls are all over the place again! The one thing we know is it will be close
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I'm not sure who out of Iceland or Portugal we should be more scared to face...
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