politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boost for Farage in the Ipsos satisfaction ratings on the d

Just done Ipsos poll. Unsure if just a snapshot poll as seemed rather short (10-12 questions or so. Whether this is private, public etc I don't know.

The 18-34 is reweighted in Opinium poll from about 500 to 800 what does this mean. Also their turnout is 61% and 65+ is 90%! Huge difference.

Actually Mr. Meeks, still England vs Iceland at the mo.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.

That's become the traditional warm up music for a Trump rally.

You are Joking?

Ode to Joy (Rise O Voices of Rhodesia) was the National Anthem of UDI Rhodesia under the Smith Government which famously said it was making a stand to preserve "Christian Civilization" in Africa!

A while back an EU delegation went to Zimbabwe and they played Ode to Joy for them and it nearly caused all hell to break out.

Is Trump sending out dogwhistles?

Mind you swap "Rhodesia" for "New Europe" and it might soon be our national anthem if we vote Remain!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuUHixVSyLk

Mr. v9, welcome to pb.com (although your username does make you sound like a sophisticated doodlebug).

FrankBooth said:

There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.

PB, of course

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm assuming that Portugal will snatch an equaliser, meaning that I'll be in Hungary for an England v Hungary last 16 match.

That will be fun.

Not correct. As it stands it is eng vs Iceland.

brokenwheel said:

Amazing how many on this site get polled...

It's like as if polls are some what self selecting....

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.

Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.

It seems incredible that we aren't getting a public one given it is standard for GE & the importance of this vote. It isn't like we are waiting to find out if Margaret in margate has got her council seat.

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.

Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.

Since I'll be at a count and unsure when I'll get a break to check my phone, I'm going to have to get by through looking at the faces of Leave and Remain campaigners and measure the glumness factor through the night.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.

Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.

It seems incredible that we aren't getting a public one.

Because it will be ridiculously inaccurate and meaningless.

FrancisUrquhart said:

brokenwheel said:

Amazing how many on this site get polled...

It's like as if polls are some what self selecting....

All the polls are vastly oversampling the opinionated.

The question is whether or not that matters.

SeanT said:

INCOMING!

All odds on LEAVE are shortening. Must be an imminent good poll for OUT?

TNS is out imminently

Leave hasn't won in a phone poll since June 15th.

Are any of the ones due today phone polls?

Freggles said:

Leave hasn't won in a phone poll since June 15th.

Are any of the ones due today phone polls?

ComRes tonight

Baskerville said:

Wandsworth: postal votes received by one hour ago, 37,000, turnout 78%.

One of those is mine! Big population growth in Putney & Wandsworth over the last 2 - 3 years, mainly into new build flats, so an increasing number of City-types which has to be good for Remain. On the other hand this is now a safe Tory Parliamentary seat.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.

Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.

It seems incredible that we aren't getting a public one.

I think there is a distinction in terminology. There will be at least one post vote opinion poll, but not an exit poll as you get in general elections. With exit polls the pollster samples voters in particular constituencies and compares the vote shares with the previous results in those constituencies. This gives a very accurate prediction of the vote across the election. Referendums are one-offs with no historical data to compare against, so the pollster has to weight his sample in the same way as the pre-vote polls. He now knows about turnout so that has reduced one of his potential inaccuracies but he still has weighting uncertainties.

@michaelsavage: Final @tns_global #EUref poll has #LEAVE ahead.

#Remain 41%
#Leave 43%
Undecided/Would not vote 16%

Online survey of 2,320 adults.

HurstLlama said:

FF43 said:

Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.

OK, I disagree with your view on the point of this site, but let us leave that alone for the moment.

No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?

This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.

At the last election the richer and older you were the more likely you were to vote Tory

@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.

Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.

Correct. I'll be watching Sterling carefully from mid-afternoon onwards.

Unless it's a huge win for either side, a mid-afternoon poll is going to be very hard to interpret.

HUNGARY!!!!

Mr. JS, they may have been unable to decide (but are out of the country on polling day).

I do wonder how this will go.

HYUFD said:

The Evening Standard has come out for Remain

Lebedev not doing the Kremlin's bidding.

@Peter_From_Putney

"... Big population growth in Putney & Wandsworth over the last 2 - 3 years, mainly into new build flats ..."

Crikey, Mr. Putney, that was my home turf and I don't remember any space (other than Wimbledon Common and Putney Heath) for new builds. Where have all those new flats been built?

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

INCOMING!

All odds on LEAVE are shortening. Must be an imminent good poll for OUT?

Probably the Opinium poll already been released

Yes,two hours ago you could get 4.2 against LEAVE, the best odds now are 3.75. That said, REMAIN are still the short odds-on favourites to win.

SeanT said:

TNS

43: LEAVE
41: REMAIN

The previous equivalent TNS poll was

47: LEAVE
40: REMAIN

So encouraging... for both sides.

Basically 4% were leave 75% of them not sure.

Over 1 in six voters don't know.

Scott_P said:

@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA

Quel surprise?

I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.

HurstLlama said:

FF43 said:

Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.

OK, I disagree with your view on the point of this site, but let us leave that alone for the moment.

No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?

This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.

These are the kind of issues that pollsters grapple with. Older, better educated people don't necessarily fall out at the half way point. It's in their handling of that sort of aggregation that separates the more consistently accurate polling companies from those vaguely in the ballpark. Is polling a useless exercise? That's a point of view.

Wanderer said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

TNS

43: LEAVE
41: REMAIN

The previous equivalent TNS poll was

47: LEAVE
40: REMAIN

So encouraging... for both sides.

7% lead amongst most likely to vote.

What do they prefer as their headline number?

Not sure.

I'm more and more pleased that I ordered that claret - gf so pleased she made some fresh houmous.

Less pleased when I explained it wouldn't be here for a couple of years. Not sure how to break it to her that we won't be drinking it until at least 2020.

Is Shadsy getting cold feet? That Laddies' offer of the margin of victory by either side to be < 1% has come in over the last few hours from 16/1 to 10/1.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Scott_P said:

@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA

Quel surprise?

I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.

bank

Richard_Tyndall said:

Quick question about the law and absolutely not trying to make a political point.

Ryanair has said that it will offer its 'biggest ever sale' on Friday if Remain wins.

Looking at the ruling earlier about treating voters by the Electoral Commission with relatuion to the croissants at St Pancras, is that legal?

You should ping the Electoral Commission to bring it to their attention. Does sound bribey to me.

It's odd. The odds aren't that different to the Scottish referendum yet the polls are much more favourable to leave than was the case with the Indyref - did they ever lead in more than one YouGov poll?

Thing is the polls were WRONG last year. Plenty of people would have been kicking themselves for not going with their instincts - Miliband no chance, Lib Dems massacre because the polls said otherwise. But what if the polls are RIGHT this time? And we have a set of punters trying to read the tea leaves thinking that the British are surely far too small c conservative to consider leaving. Aren't they?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Football

Bloody Hell

Game of the tournament so far.

Can we play portugal not hungary plz

In Rough Figures

46 million electorate.

England Outside London 33 Million
London 5 Million
Wales 2 Million
NI 1 Million
Scotland 5 Million.
Gib 0.022 million (so ignoring)

If London & Scotland (10 million between them) vote 70% Remain then that means 3 Million of them vote leave

To win leave need 23 million votes.

So they need 20 million votes in Rest of England + Wales + NI (as they get 3 million from Scotland and London). Population is 33+2+1. Therefore they need 20 million out of 36 million population = 55.5% Leave.

If London and Scotland vote 60% Remain, then Rest of England+Wales+NI need 19 million out of 36 million population = 52.7%

If London and Scotland vote 55%% Remain, then Rest of England+Wales+NI need 18.5 million out of 36 million population = 51.3%

That is based on 100% turnout.

If you factor in the turnout differetials from Yougov the other day which said Remain need to be 5% ahead due to differential turnouts then to win Leave in rest of England & Wales need 50.5% if Scotland and London poll 70% Remain, 47.7% if Scotland and London poll 60% Remain and 46.3 for 55%

That is why I think the maths show its all over for Remain.

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Quick question about the law and absolutely not trying to make a political point.

Ryanair has said that it will offer its 'biggest ever sale' on Friday if Remain wins.

Looking at the ruling earlier about treating voters by the Electoral Commission with relatuion to the croissants at St Pancras, is that legal?

You should ping the Electoral Commission to bring it to their attention. Does sound bribey to me.

I would expect they are already aware of it.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/ryanair-promises-biggest-ever-sale-on-friday-to-reward-voters-if-remain-wins/ar-AAhsSul?ocid=spartandhp

FrankBooth said:

It's odd. The odds aren't that different to the Scottish referendum yet the polls are much more favourable to leave than was the case with the Indyref - did they ever lead in more than one YouGov poll?

Thing is the polls were WRONG last year. Plenty of people would have been kicking themselves for not going with their instincts - Miliband no chance, Lib Dems massacre because the polls said otherwise. But what if the polls are RIGHT this time? And we have a set of punters trying to read the tea leaves thinking that the British are surely far too small c conservative to consider leaving. Aren't they?

Comres had the Tories on 35%, the LDs on 9% in their final general election poll which was pretty close to the actual result, their final referendum poll is at 10pm tonight

RobD said:

John_N4 said:

.

So the Weather moves the markets more than voting Leave?

Not as much as spurious tweets from OGH move the market

Mortimer said:

I'm more and more pleased that I ordered that claret - gf so pleased she made some fresh houmous.

Less pleased when I explained it wouldn't be here for a couple of years. Not sure how to break it to her that we won't be drinking it until at least 2020.

I did wonder when @rcs1000 suggested using it to drown our sorrows...

FF43 said:

HurstLlama said:

FF43 said:

Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.

OK, I disagree with your view on the point of this site, but let us leave that alone for the moment.

No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?

This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.

These are the kind of issues that pollsters grapple with. Older, better educated people don't necessarily fall out at the half way point. It's in their handling of that sort of aggregation that separates the more consistently accurate polling companies from those vaguely in the ballpark. Is polling a useless exercise? That's a point of view.

If the polling can't get close to the actual result (in terms of the essentials) then perhaps it is a pointless exercise.

However, I think it gets worse than that. Polling is now, and not just in politics, driving the narrative and investment decisions. It is becoming the news, the deciding factor, perhaps the shifter of opinion. If it is consistently wrong and, as demonstrated in 2015, even suppressing results because they don't fit what the company wants, then perhaps it becomes positively malignant.

Postal votes may well come back late. I was once involved in shredding them. The boss was most insistent that the evidence be destroyed.

@Freggles Unless either Iceland or Austria score, we won't play either Portugal or Hungary.

3-3!!