politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big moves in the referendum betting – follow the changes LI

Pulpstar said:

Numbers don't lie:

Episode one (May 29): 4.3million viewers; 21% audience share
Episode two (June 5): 2.8million viewers; 14% audience share
Episode three (June 12): 2.4million viewers; 10% audience share
Episode four (June 19): 2.3million viewers; 10% audience share

Titter.

It's a HIT! FACT!!!

logical_song said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

tyson said:

You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.

To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.

Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.

Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.

Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.

They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.

I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.

I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.

But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.

How do you know what 'Brits' want?
As Southam says "It's never a good idea to take voters for granted."

The evidence in poll after poll, and social attitudes surveys, is that Britons want a much looser relationship with the EU. It is economic risk that will secure Remain a win.

Roger said:

RobD said:

LadyBucket said:

Stephen Kinnock in his tribute has just mentioned that BLOODY POSTER. THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST UNBELIEVABLE. THEIR TRIBALISM AND SANCTIMONIOUS ARROGANCE, JUST KNOWS NO BOUNDS. I'M DISGUSTED. IT'S NOT ABOUT THEM.

Shift key stuck?

SHoCkiNG!!!!!!

Looks like yours is on the blink

I'm in a totally safe Labour seat, so I can vote Ukip even if led by Count Dracula.

Yet even here, the oldies are revolting. A friend who works for the council (a Corbynite) reckons that no one over fifty is voting for Remain; he can't bring himself to vote Remain because of Cameron, so will probably abstain.

I'm a Leaver, my wife is edging to Remain because she feels sorry for the refugees (she does the empathy in our house). My son is working for a Danish company on secondment to the USA, and would vote Remain because of the exchange rate worries, and my daughter who lives in Sydney would have voted Leave.

But generally the split is old or poor vs young or rich and the rancour is getting worse. Probably a Leave vote will be best because that will end it (or not).

RobD said:

LadyBucket said:

Stephen Kinnock in his tribute has just mentioned that BLOODY POSTER. THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST UNBELIEVABLE. THEIR TRIBALISM AND SANCTIMONIOUS ARROGANCE, JUST KNOWS NO BOUNDS. I'M DISGUSTED. IT'S NOT ABOUT THEM.

Shift key stuck?

You're shouting at the wrong person!

Good afternoon, my fellow xenophobic racist divisive toxic scum of the earth.

Mr. Pulpstar, FACT?

OllyT said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.

It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....

Nothing we can do about it mate.

I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.

The wailing and gnashing of teeth re Farage would have a lot more credibility if Leave hadn't descended into a Farage-like campaign.

A couple of weeks ago when the Leave campaign was tanking they took a deliberate decision to refocus the campaign on exploiting anti-immigration feeling.

It may yet work, I think it's in the balance, but if Leave do now manage to win it won't be Britain's finest hour IMO.

Farage like campaign....this will be studied by students of far right politics for years to come and it has nothing to do with Farage. People with young children be warned.....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07d6f8y/eu-referendum-campaign-broadcasts-vote-leave-23052016

Casino_Royale said:

I want Remain to win - but by a tiny margin of a couple of thousand votes. A country split right down the middle. We'd stay in, for now, until the PM whether it's this one or the next, negotiates a better deal. In the meantime no Eurocrat could plausibly argue that Brits had clearly voted for more of the same.

Where that desire leaves my vote on Thursday I'm still not 100%. But as I instinctively want to stay in a better EU, and I'm scared of the risks of Leave, I think I have to vote Remain, on principle.

If that's your position, you should consider close examination of the final polls.

If they show a very clear Remain win, you may wish to tactically vote Leave.

I am sorry Bob but this simply will not happen. It is arrogant of the British to believe that after any sort of vote to Remain the EU will either want or be able to change its course or allow us to change our relationship. If we decide to set sail on the Titanic we will be stuck on board until she hits the iceberg.

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

tyson said:

You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.

To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.

Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.

Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.

Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.

They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.

I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.

I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.

But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.

I want Remain to win - but by a tiny margin of a couple of thousand votes. A country split right down the middle. We'd stay in, for now, until the PM whether it's this one or the next, negotiates a better deal. In the meantime no Eurocrat could plausibly argue that Brits had clearly voted for more of the same.

Where that desire leaves my vote on Thursday I'm still not 100%. But as I instinctively want to stay in a better EU, and I'm scared of the risks of Leave, I think I have to vote Remain, on principle.

You could take my father's approach: that the British people, en masse, are rational and therefore will vote for Remain.

You therefore have a duty to vote against your instincts and vote Leave in order to ensure that the result is as close as possible.

*innocent face*

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Antanas Guoga, a Lithuanian MEP better known as the former poker champion “Tony G,” challenged Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage to a €1 million bet Monday on the outcome of the U.K.’s EU referendum.

Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his poker-playing days and his subsequent online poker empire, has seized on a recent Farage stunt of betting £1,000 on Brexit, and is upping the stakes a thousand-fold.

http://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-e1-million-bet-on-uk-referendum-brexit-antanas-guoga/

I've actually been logged in as Tony G on his own website once playing poker. He passed me his laptop whilst he went to do something else, rather shamefully I lost about a hundred quid for him !

He's a top chap though and a very nice man.

Here's a vid of him at the table:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW1YOluDM3M

Ha ha! That's a great anecdote Pulpstar

What odds, do we think, would be fair on a 2016 and/or 2017 exit for Cameron even if Remain win?

I am beginning to think a decent chance.

PlatoSaid said:

0_o

Neil Kinnock Wants Baroness Warsi To Be EU Commissioner

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5573457.html?edition=uk

Oh my.

taffys said:

weejonnie said:

Looks like this commons eulogy is the Remainers Sheffield Rally moment.

Comment of the day, in my book.

No doubt gone down well in the LeaveB.com echo chamber

TheWhiteRabbit said:

What odds, do we think, would be fair on a 2016 and/or 2017 exit for Cameron even if Remain win?

I am beginning to think a decent chance.

I went through the next Tory leader options with my parents yesterday, they'd both prefer May of the big beasts.

A lot of people are putting out the idea that if we vote to remain the "Eurocrats" will take it as a green light to force us into new integration projects. Aside from the fact that much the same thing was said in Scotland (baselessly as it turned out) this simply doesn't make any sense given the way EU decisions are made. Nobody can force the UK to take part in new integration projects it opposes - all of these decisions require unanimity (i.e. we have a veto).

This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

What odds, do we think, would be fair on a 2016 and/or 2017 exit for Cameron even if Remain win?

I am beginning to think a decent chance.

Cameron won't be PM for longer than about 18 months if Remain win, IMHO. He'll want to get a few more bills through, make a few more speeches, and then call it a day.

I'd say he'd stand down in Autumn 2017 or Spring 2018.

Given that the current betting odds show REMAIN as being 1/4 and LEAVE as being 3/1, what polling numbers are PBers expecting to see which would subtantiate such odds?

My own view fwiw is that a REMAIN lead of 2% or more would mean their present odds holding firm or shortening, since it would indicate that the trend is continuing to go going their way.
A dead heat or a small lead for LEAVE and I would expect REMAIN's odds to lengthen appreciably, since it would then seem that the result is still up for grabs with three days to go.

JonnyJimmy said:

Labour has form for racist and divisive, for sure..

Isn't the whole point of equality that all are treated equal?

Mr. Yorkatz, welcome to pb.com.

That does disregard that the flow of powers has been towards devolution within the UK, but centralisation within the EU.

My favourite line from that Kinnock piece was this:

He also said the fact Warsi was “manifestly a woman”

tyson said:

Pulpstar said:

Jobabob said:

@Tyson

Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.

Examine the following Southam predictions:

US Presidential election 2012
Romney victory

European elections 2014
Labour pushed into third place*

Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Yes victory

*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this

Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...

I love Southam's unswerving self belief once he gets an idea into his head- one of pbCOM's redeeming features. He strikes me as the kind of chap you want around in a crisis, unlike me who flaps ever so slightly.

On the basis of his posting here (and that's all you have to go on as well, I assume), he offers wailing and blame-spreading, not solutions. An inverse Corporal Jones, if you like.

Mr. 86, watch out Sappho, there's a new poet in town

If mere rumours and polls shift markets so much, one does have to wonder how big the impact of the actual result will be - especially if it's a surprise Leave win. Pretty brutal, I imagine.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Can some of the Brexiters here calm down.

We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.

Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.

As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.

And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.

C'mon, if we can't swing from irretrievable doom to unvarnished triumph on here in a matter of minutes then what is pb.com for?

Scott_P said:

In other news

@mattkatz00: Just got call from pollster testing Paul Ryan & John Kasich against Clinton. Hmmm. From Opinion Access Corp. cc: @PollsterPatrick

What grounds could they have to stop Trump. He has won the primaries fair and square, surely?

yorkatz said:

A lot of people are putting out the idea that if we vote to remain the "Eurocrats" will take it as a green light to force us into new integration projects. Aside from the fact that much the same thing was said in Scotland (baselessly as it turned out) this simply doesn't make any sense given the way EU decisions are made. Nobody can force the UK to take part in new integration projects it opposes - all of these decisions require unanimity (i.e. we have a veto).

This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.

Sorry but this is just unrealistic. The Eurozone is in deep trouble and needs political union to survive long term. The fact that this is also the basic aim of the European Union is just a matter of convenience. For this to work they need to make full use of all the institutions of the EU - something we have tried to block in the past but have now effectively ceded control of.

It is true that we cannot be forced into the Euro. But we can do nothing to prevent the Eurozone from dominating the EU and running it according to their needs. We are going to see far more rapid movement towards more rather than less EU over the next few years and when we do eventually find we can no longer stand it, leaving will be far more painful than it would otherwise have been.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave sub 4 now.

What a bonkers morning.

I do wonder if a private poll was being reported inaccurately.

Scott_P said:

In other news

@mattkatz00: Just got call from pollster testing Paul Ryan & John Kasich against Clinton. Hmmm. From Opinion Access Corp. cc: @PollsterPatrick

Oh tell me this is true!! I am still sitting on a small Ryan bet.

Starfall said:

Sean_F said:

tyson said:

You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.

To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.

Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.

What if you lose?

We Remainers will not lose now. The Great British public are glutton for a mourning over a public figure going back to Diana in the 1990s. We will win, but in such a shameful manner. The way David Cameron and the Remain campaign so cynically exploited a young woman's death means our side have completely lost any sense of a moral victory.

were alriiighhhhhtttt!!!

Richard_Nabavi said:

If mere rumours and polls shift markets so much, one does have to wonder how big the impact of the actual result will be - especially if it's a surprise Leave win. Pretty brutal, I imagine.

Alternatively, this is the reversion to business as usual and the markets have assumed remain wins. Anyone buying on Friday following a remain vote would lost the significant profit opportunity.

You're correct then that a (surprise or otherwise) leave result would lead to quite a correction.

yorkatz said:

A lot of people are putting out the idea that if we vote to remain the "Eurocrats" will take it as a green light to force us into new integration projects. Aside from the fact that much the same thing was said in Scotland (baselessly as it turned out) this simply doesn't make any sense given the way EU decisions are made. Nobody can force the UK to take part in new integration projects it opposes - all of these decisions require unanimity (i.e. we have a veto).

This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.

Welcome.

Yes. Those who know how the EU work, such as Michael Dougan, have been so incensed at the misrepresentation and fantasy from Leave about what the EU does and doesn't or can or can't do, that they have come out for Remain.

I think Remain will win and have done since Thursday. However I find all this talk of foregone conculsions perplexing. Just as the despair amongst remainers seemed OTT last week, so does the exuberance for remain now. One thing I will say is that although I'm a definite remainer and think the vote is of great significance, if we do lose I'll be far less disappointed than I was with the GE result last year.

taffys said:

''To win, all that is necessary is to ensure the working class Leave vote turns out.''

Personally, I think the remain campaign is doing that all by themselves in the HoC today.

Once people make up their mind if it has no effect or all the effect.

kjohnw said:

Starfall said:

Sean_F said:

tyson said:

You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.

To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.

Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.

What if you lose?

We Remainers will not lose now. The Great British public are glutton for a mourning over a public figure going back to Diana in the 1990s. We will win, but in such a shameful manner. The way David Cameron and the Remain campaign so cynically exploited a young woman's death means our side have completely lost any sense of a moral victory.

were alriiighhhhhtttt!!!

Before my time, that - I want my own 'We're alllllrigght ' moment.

Oh wait, the EdStone. Never mind.

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If mere rumours and polls shift markets so much, one does have to wonder how big the impact of the actual result will be - especially if it's a surprise Leave win. Pretty brutal, I imagine.

Actually, that's a good point.

The fallout from the murder may have significantly up'ped the social stigma of declaring as a Leaver, which could disproportionately affect phone polls. So if ORB does show a big Remain swing tonight that could be reason to be cautious.

Or I could be clutching at straws..

I think we need at least 3 new mixed polls (i.e. phone and online) to be able to identify the present trend.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Can some of the Brexiters here calm down.

We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.

Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.

As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.

And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.

I think people really exaggerate shy electors effect. Why would you lie to someone phoning from a polling company. I mean what are they gonna do to you. Nothing.

Top mail comment on the article about this afternoon in HoC

'Sad about her death but hope this will now happen for any service personnel who dies in the service of our country

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

In other news

@mattkatz00: Just got call from pollster testing Paul Ryan & John Kasich against Clinton. Hmmm. From Opinion Access Corp. cc: @PollsterPatrick

Oh tell me this is true!! I am still sitting on a small Ryan bet.

It's probably meaningless (or perhaps trouble-stirring), I'm actually on both!

betfair down to 3.9

I think I'm getting to be a big old softy in my old (late 20s) age. I remember being entirely unmoved and baffled by Diana, and have railed against the loss of a bit of stiff upper lip reserve in general in society. But while I do still believe that, I find I get a little more irritated at the automatic push back at those who are soppy about such things than peopel getting soppy themselves.

Oh, I still feel it gets overblown on so many situations, but I feel we can sometimes get into a kind of contest to see who wants to show they give less of a shit, or mock those who get perhaps overly emotional about it for too long.

rottenborough said:

This infographic is doing the rounds from Matt Smith, based on YouGov. Seems if we have turnout in 60-70% then Remain need to be 5+ ahead.

Really. Why were people so concerned Leave needed a clear lead of 4-5 in order to be sure of winning then? If that's right, Leave will get home easily.

peter_from_putney said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

In other news

@mattkatz00: Just got call from pollster testing Paul Ryan & John Kasich against Clinton. Hmmm. From Opinion Access Corp. cc: @PollsterPatrick

Oh tell me this is true!! I am still sitting on a small Ryan bet.

It's probably meaningless (or perhaps trouble-stirring), I'm actually on both!

There's been rumours of a convention mutiny against Trump. Maybe somebody is trying to gather some data to help that process.

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/744888968710324224