''A couple of weeks ago when the Leave campaign was tanking they took a deliberate decision to refocus the campaign on exploiting anti-immigration feeling.''
The debate has moved to the point where remain have more or less admitted that EU immigration is unlimited and always will be.
Disagree? feel concerned? you are a racist.
Faced with this, the country has fallen silent. Nobody knows what people are really thinking.
Jim Pickard This is my nth vox pop of referendum campaign: no one, anywhere, has cited a politician for why they are In or Out. https://t.co/bWg0qheJ12
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.
I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.
But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.
How do you know what 'Brits' want? As Southam says "It's never a good idea to take voters for granted."
The evidence in poll after poll, and social attitudes surveys, is that Britons want a much looser relationship with the EU. It is economic risk that will secure Remain a win.
Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment
I am furious with Farage.
There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.
It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....
Nothing we can do about it mate.
I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.
The wailing and gnashing of teeth re Farage would have a lot more credibility if Leave hadn't descended into a Farage-like campaign.
A couple of weeks ago when the Leave campaign was tanking they took a deliberate decision to refocus the campaign on exploiting anti-immigration feeling.
It may yet work, I think it's in the balance, but if Leave do now manage to win it won't be Britain's finest hour IMO.
it will be fine if we manage to break the shackles from the EU
Stephen Kinnock in his tribute has just mentioned that BLOODY POSTER. THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST UNBELIEVABLE. THEIR TRIBALISM AND SANCTIMONIOUS ARROGANCE, JUST KNOWS NO BOUNDS. I'M DISGUSTED. IT'S NOT ABOUT THEM.
I'm in a totally safe Labour seat, so I can vote Ukip even if led by Count Dracula.
Yet even here, the oldies are revolting. A friend who works for the council (a Corbynite) reckons that no one over fifty is voting for Remain; he can't bring himself to vote Remain because of Cameron, so will probably abstain.
I'm a Leaver, my wife is edging to Remain because she feels sorry for the refugees (she does the empathy in our house). My son is working for a Danish company on secondment to the USA, and would vote Remain because of the exchange rate worries, and my daughter who lives in Sydney would have voted Leave.
But generally the split is old or poor vs young or rich and the rancour is getting worse. Probably a Leave vote will be best because that will end it (or not).
Stephen Kinnock in his tribute has just mentioned that BLOODY POSTER. THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST UNBELIEVABLE. THEIR TRIBALISM AND SANCTIMONIOUS ARROGANCE, JUST KNOWS NO BOUNDS. I'M DISGUSTED. IT'S NOT ABOUT THEM.
Somehow that news from Switzerland last week missed the main news channels here. "Switzerland Withdraws Application To Join EU: Only "Lunatics May Want To Join Now" "Christoph Blocher, the Swiss former MP who led the charge to keep Switzerland out of the EU in 1992, said that Project Fear was deployed in that referendum, too. One politician predicted at the time that if it didn’t join, within five years it would be begging to do so “on its knees”. In fact, those predictions never came to pass. “The Monday after the Sunday, the Bourse rose,” Mr. Blocher recalls. But he agrees that Britain wouldn’t get the same deal as the Swiss post-Brexit: “No, you’d get a much better deal.” His conclusion: “I think if you [Britain] leave the EU it will be very good for you.”"
Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment
I am furious with Farage.
There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.
It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....
Nothing we can do about it mate.
I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.
The wailing and gnashing of teeth re Farage would have a lot more credibility if Leave hadn't descended into a Farage-like campaign.
A couple of weeks ago when the Leave campaign was tanking they took a deliberate decision to refocus the campaign on exploiting anti-immigration feeling.
It may yet work, I think it's in the balance, but if Leave do now manage to win it won't be Britain's finest hour IMO.
Farage like campaign....this will be studied by students of far right politics for years to come and it has nothing to do with Farage. People with young children be warned.....
I want Remain to win - but by a tiny margin of a couple of thousand votes. A country split right down the middle. We'd stay in, for now, until the PM whether it's this one or the next, negotiates a better deal. In the meantime no Eurocrat could plausibly argue that Brits had clearly voted for more of the same.
Where that desire leaves my vote on Thursday I'm still not 100%. But as I instinctively want to stay in a better EU, and I'm scared of the risks of Leave, I think I have to vote Remain, on principle.
If that's your position, you should consider close examination of the final polls.
If they show a very clear Remain win, you may wish to tactically vote Leave.
I am sorry Bob but this simply will not happen. It is arrogant of the British to believe that after any sort of vote to Remain the EU will either want or be able to change its course or allow us to change our relationship. If we decide to set sail on the Titanic we will be stuck on board until she hits the iceberg.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.
I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.
But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.
I want Remain to win - but by a tiny margin of a couple of thousand votes. A country split right down the middle. We'd stay in, for now, until the PM whether it's this one or the next, negotiates a better deal. In the meantime no Eurocrat could plausibly argue that Brits had clearly voted for more of the same.
Where that desire leaves my vote on Thursday I'm still not 100%. But as I instinctively want to stay in a better EU, and I'm scared of the risks of Leave, I think I have to vote Remain, on principle.
You could take my father's approach: that the British people, en masse, are rational and therefore will vote for Remain.
You therefore have a duty to vote against your instincts and vote Leave in order to ensure that the result is as close as possible.
Antanas Guoga, a Lithuanian MEP better known as the former poker champion “Tony G,” challenged Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage to a €1 million bet Monday on the outcome of the U.K.’s EU referendum.
Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his poker-playing days and his subsequent online poker empire, has seized on a recent Farage stunt of betting £1,000 on Brexit, and is upping the stakes a thousand-fold.
I've actually been logged in as Tony G on his own website once playing poker. He passed me his laptop whilst he went to do something else, rather shamefully I lost about a hundred quid for him !
''I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know ''
Yes but Mr G. a few months ago you claimed Obama's 'back of the queue' comments were a knockout blow for Remain.
They were actually a boost for Leave, and Obama has now been rebuked by Congress for his comments, which it turns out were an empty and untrue threat.
On that occasion you really could not have been more wrong in your instincts. You have to admit, your track record is not good.
Indy now leading with the fact that Nissan are taking legal action against the Leave campaign.
If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.
Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?
We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.
From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.
Could be a Bismark..
The big change (only one) I've detected since last week is previously unenthusiastic/soft Remainers suddenly firming up and going full-on on social media, and sticking up Remain posters in their windows.
At the same time, I have scaled back due to the amount of heat and flak I was getting. And so have other Leavers.
Don't go quieter. When people don't hear the other argument they will go for what everyone else is saying.
Don't mean to be harsh but exactly how much can Casino have been doing? He seems to spend every waking moment posting on here.
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...
He called the 2015 general election correctly, too.
We are clutching at straws!!
Both sides are
Who knows what the country really thinks. Even my polling models are as good as a blamange right now..
I genuinely have no idea what the result will be. I was just talking on the phone to a friend of mine who who's an Outter in Wandsworth. And he's wavering. Not because he doesn't want to leave the EU, but because he thinks that maybe this time isn't the right time...
But then I think of Rochdale and large chunks of rural Britain and I think, the dispossessed will come out for Out... It's an incredibly hard call.
A lot of people are putting out the idea that if we vote to remain the "Eurocrats" will take it as a green light to force us into new integration projects. Aside from the fact that much the same thing was said in Scotland (baselessly as it turned out) this simply doesn't make any sense given the way EU decisions are made. Nobody can force the UK to take part in new integration projects it opposes - all of these decisions require unanimity (i.e. we have a veto).
This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.
I think Leave have to do something very radical to win this now.
A big, safe, economic offer and pledge if they want to win over enough waverers to cross the line.
Also needs to be done in a way that HMG and EU can't immediately unpick.
Nah - if done in a general way it looks like panic.
To win, all that is necessary is to ensure the working class Leave vote turns out.
If the working class do turn out en-masse and override the economic interests of the middle-upper middle class (huge if) then that will be revolutionary.
It will probably also be very healthy for our politics, because they won't ever be able to be sneered at, maligned or dismissed again.
What odds, do we think, would be fair on a 2016 and/or 2017 exit for Cameron even if Remain win?
I am beginning to think a decent chance.
Cameron won't be PM for longer than about 18 months if Remain win, IMHO. He'll want to get a few more bills through, make a few more speeches, and then call it a day.
I'd say he'd stand down in Autumn 2017 or Spring 2018.
This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.
It has been noted that one of the main sources of stories about EU interference and nonsense laws was a young journalist named Boris Johnson.
Given that the current betting odds show REMAIN as being 1/4 and LEAVE as being 3/1, what polling numbers are PBers expecting to see which would subtantiate such odds?
My own view fwiw is that a REMAIN lead of 2% or more would mean their present odds holding firm or shortening, since it would indicate that the trend is continuing to go going their way. A dead heat or a small lead for LEAVE and I would expect REMAIN's odds to lengthen appreciably, since it would then seem that the result is still up for grabs with three days to go.
If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.
Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?
We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.
From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.
Could be a Bismark..
The big change (only one) I've detected since last week is previously unenthusiastic/soft Remainers suddenly firming up and going full-on on social media, and sticking up Remain posters in their windows.
At the same time, I have scaled back due to the amount of heat and flak I was getting. And so have other Leavers.
Don't go quieter. When people don't hear the other argument they will go for what everyone else is saying.
Don't mean to be harsh but exactly how much can Casino have been doing? He seems to spend every waking moment posting on here.
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...
I have a mixed record: I got Boris winning in London in 2008 right, I got the hung parliament in 2010 right, I got the Tories winning most seats in 2015 right (though not the overall majority), I get EdM and Jeremy Corbyn being disasters right (though they were gimmes), I got UKIP doing best in the East in the Euros right, I got the Spanish GE right and I got the Spurs choke right. I got the 2012 US presidential election horribly wrong and the Scottish Indy vote wrong - though I do think that call was fair enough. The thing is that when I do go down I go down loudly. No-one on here is going to forget I predicted a Leave win, or that I stuck to that prediction. Again, with this vote given where things started from I don't think I have done too badly. Whatever happens I have been absolutely right about it being all about immigration.
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...
I love Southam's unswerving self belief once he gets an idea into his head- one of pbCOM's redeeming features. He strikes me as the kind of chap you want around in a crisis, unlike me who flaps ever so slightly.
On the basis of his posting here (and that's all you have to go on as well, I assume), he offers wailing and blame-spreading, not solutions. An inverse Corporal Jones, if you like.
We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.
Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.
As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.
And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.
If mere rumours and polls shift markets so much, one does have to wonder how big the impact of the actual result will be - especially if it's a surprise Leave win. Pretty brutal, I imagine.
We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.
Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.
As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.
And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.
C'mon, if we can't swing from irretrievable doom to unvarnished triumph on here in a matter of minutes then what is pb.com for?
If mere rumours and polls shift markets so much, one does have to wonder how big the impact of the actual result will be - especially if it's a surprise Leave win. Pretty brutal, I imagine.
Actually, that's a good point.
The fallout from the murder may have significantly up'ped the social stigma of declaring as a Leaver, which could disproportionately affect phone polls. So if ORB does show a big Remain swing tonight that could be reason to be cautious.
A lot of people are putting out the idea that if we vote to remain the "Eurocrats" will take it as a green light to force us into new integration projects. Aside from the fact that much the same thing was said in Scotland (baselessly as it turned out) this simply doesn't make any sense given the way EU decisions are made. Nobody can force the UK to take part in new integration projects it opposes - all of these decisions require unanimity (i.e. we have a veto).
This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.
Sorry but this is just unrealistic. The Eurozone is in deep trouble and needs political union to survive long term. The fact that this is also the basic aim of the European Union is just a matter of convenience. For this to work they need to make full use of all the institutions of the EU - something we have tried to block in the past but have now effectively ceded control of.
It is true that we cannot be forced into the Euro. But we can do nothing to prevent the Eurozone from dominating the EU and running it according to their needs. We are going to see far more rapid movement towards more rather than less EU over the next few years and when we do eventually find we can no longer stand it, leaving will be far more painful than it would otherwise have been.
We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.
Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.
As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.
And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.
I hope your right Paul, I think you could be, all the anecdotes I am getting in the North seems leave is well ahead up here, I think after last week there are now an increased number of shy leavers, who don't want to be thought of as racist because they are concerned about immigration in this country, Cameron was shifty last night over Turkey on QT and the Chamberain comment didn't help him either , the audience were angry with him, and Corbyns no upper limit on immigration isn't a vote winner either. I think once in the privacy of the polling booth it will go Leaves way, the polls I believe are understating Leave
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
We Remainers will not lose now. The Great British public are glutton for a mourning over a public figure going back to Diana in the 1990s. We will win, but in such a shameful manner. The way David Cameron and the Remain campaign so cynically exploited a young woman's death means our side have completely lost any sense of a moral victory.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
We Remainers will not lose now. The Great British public are glutton for a mourning over a public figure going back to Diana in the 1990s. We will win, but in such a shameful manner. The way David Cameron and the Remain campaign so cynically exploited a young woman's death means our side have completely lost any sense of a moral victory.
If mere rumours and polls shift markets so much, one does have to wonder how big the impact of the actual result will be - especially if it's a surprise Leave win. Pretty brutal, I imagine.
Alternatively, this is the reversion to business as usual and the markets have assumed remain wins. Anyone buying on Friday following a remain vote would lost the significant profit opportunity.
You're correct then that a (surprise or otherwise) leave result would lead to quite a correction.
Given that the current betting odds show REMAIN as being 1/4 and LEAVE as being 3/1, what polling numbers are PBers expecting to see which would subtantiate such odds?
My own view fwiw is that a REMAIN lead of 2% or more would mean their present odds holding firm or shortening, since it would indicate that the trend is continuing to go going their way. A dead heat or a small lead for LEAVE and I would expect REMAIN's odds to lengthen appreciably, since it would then seem that the result is still up for grabs with three days to go.
I would agree, lets say that YouGov (if they release a poll tonight) have a 2 point lead for LEAVE, I'm sure the odds with lengthen. Seeing as the last two YouGov polls showed a 2 point lead for leave and a 1 point remain lead, it wouldn't be completely unexpected, but I think the betting markets have already forgotten about those polls....
However I'm going to predict a 5 point lead for remain (if there's a YouGov poll tonight) so I wouldn't be surprised to see the remain price tighten further.
A lot of people are putting out the idea that if we vote to remain the "Eurocrats" will take it as a green light to force us into new integration projects. Aside from the fact that much the same thing was said in Scotland (baselessly as it turned out) this simply doesn't make any sense given the way EU decisions are made. Nobody can force the UK to take part in new integration projects it opposes - all of these decisions require unanimity (i.e. we have a veto).
This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.
Welcome.
Yes. Those who know how the EU work, such as Michael Dougan, have been so incensed at the misrepresentation and fantasy from Leave about what the EU does and doesn't or can or can't do, that they have come out for Remain.
I think Remain will win and have done since Thursday. However I find all this talk of foregone conculsions perplexing. Just as the despair amongst remainers seemed OTT last week, so does the exuberance for remain now. One thing I will say is that although I'm a definite remainer and think the vote is of great significance, if we do lose I'll be far less disappointed than I was with the GE result last year.
The main thing I've learned from this campaign is that Louise mensch is not someone to follow on Twitter. Not ground breaking I admit but there you go.
A lot of people are putting out the idea that if we vote to remain the "Eurocrats" will take it as a green light to force us into new integration projects. Aside from the fact that much the same thing was said in Scotland (baselessly as it turned out) this simply doesn't make any sense given the way EU decisions are made. Nobody can force the UK to take part in new integration projects it opposes - all of these decisions require unanimity (i.e. we have a veto).
This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.
Welcome.
Yes. Those who know how the EU work, such as Michael Dougan, have been so incensed at the misrepresentation and fantasy from Leave about what the EU does and doesn't or can or can't do, that they have come out for Remain.
Afternoon Topping
I didn't see any reply from you when I posted up the link to all the negotiation documents a couple of days ago. Have you had a chance to look at them yet?
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
We Remainers will not lose now. The Great British public are glutton for a mourning over a public figure going back to Diana in the 1990s. We will win, but in such a shameful manner. The way David Cameron and the Remain campaign so cynically exploited a young woman's death means our side have completely lost any sense of a moral victory.
were alriiighhhhhtttt!!!
Before my time, that - I want my own 'We're alllllrigght ' moment.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
We Remainers will not lose now. The Great British public are glutton for a mourning over a public figure going back to Diana in the 1990s. We will win, but in such a shameful manner. The way David Cameron and the Remain campaign so cynically exploited a young woman's death means our side have completely lost any sense of a moral victory.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
We Remainers will not lose now. The Great British public are glutton for a mourning over a public figure going back to Diana in the 1990s. We will win, but in such a shameful manner. The way David Cameron and the Remain campaign so cynically exploited a young woman's death means our side have completely lost any sense of a moral victory.
If mere rumours and polls shift markets so much, one does have to wonder how big the impact of the actual result will be - especially if it's a surprise Leave win. Pretty brutal, I imagine.
Actually, that's a good point.
The fallout from the murder may have significantly up'ped the social stigma of declaring as a Leaver, which could disproportionately affect phone polls. So if ORB does show a big Remain swing tonight that could be reason to be cautious.
Or I could be clutching at straws..
I think we need at least 3 new mixed polls (i.e. phone and online) to be able to identify the present trend.
We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.
Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.
As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.
And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.
I think people really exaggerate shy electors effect. Why would you lie to someone phoning from a polling company. I mean what are they gonna do to you. Nothing.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
We Remainers will not lose now. The Great British public are glutton for a mourning over a public figure going back to Diana in the 1990s. We will win, but in such a shameful manner. The way David Cameron and the Remain campaign so cynically exploited a young woman's death means our side have completely lost any sense of a moral victory.
were alriiighhhhhtttt!!!
Before my time, that - I want my own 'We're alllllrigght ' moment.
Oh wait, the EdStone. Never mind.
I think the Lib Dem Budget was just as through the looking glass as the Ed Stone. I would love to know what happened to the Yellow Box.
Yes. Those who know how the EU work, such as Michael Dougan, have been so incensed at the misrepresentation and fantasy from Leave about what the EU does and doesn't or can or can't do, that they have come out for Remain.
Given that the current betting odds show REMAIN as being 1/4 and LEAVE as being 3/1, what polling numbers are PBers expecting to see which would subtantiate such odds?
My own view fwiw is that a REMAIN lead of 2% or more would mean their present odds holding firm or shortening, since it would indicate that the trend is continuing to go going their way. A dead heat or a small lead for LEAVE and I would expect REMAIN's odds to lengthen appreciably, since it would then seem that the result is still up for grabs with three days to go.
I would agree, lets say that YouGov (if they release a poll tonight) have a 2 point lead for LEAVE, I'm sure the odds with lengthen. Seeing as the last two YouGov polls showed a 2 point lead for leave and a 1 point remain lead, it wouldn't be completely unexpected, but I think the betting markets have already forgotten about those polls....
However I'm going to predict a 5 point lead for remain (if there's a YouGov poll tonight) so I wouldn't be surprised to see the remain price tighten further.
Yes I'm thinking a 4 - 7 % Remain lead perhaps more.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
No. We don't belong in the EU. Either we are sidelined as the EMU federalises and turns into a single country, or we are forced into it by a series of court and QMV losses. I fully expect that the EC will propose anti-referendum legislation after the vote, something along the lines of single market suspension while the campaign takes place, just enough to put nations off ever having a referendum, but not enough to cause protests and condemnation which would force them to reverse it.
Only way out is through a UK Government led exit negotiation, which means things getting so bad they win a GE on that basis through a manifesto commitment, IMHO.
To be honest, I think we need a government advocated Leave, because then the destination would be clear. Which would make for a much more honest and open discussion about the compromises and costs of every action.
The 2020 Conservative manifesto will be an interesting one.
It will be either one way or another. Either a Remain supporter will win and make clear the matter is closed, or a true believing Eurosceptic will and another referendum will be in the 2020 manifesto. What would be interesting is which way someone like Boris goes. I think he will ride the Eurosceptic path to power and then abandon them once in office, as Cameron did.
I think I'm getting to be a big old softy in my old (late 20s) age. I remember being entirely unmoved and baffled by Diana, and have railed against the loss of a bit of stiff upper lip reserve in general in society. But while I do still believe that, I find I get a little more irritated at the automatic push back at those who are soppy about such things than peopel getting soppy themselves.
Oh, I still feel it gets overblown on so many situations, but I feel we can sometimes get into a kind of contest to see who wants to show they give less of a shit, or mock those who get perhaps overly emotional about it for too long.
Yes. Those who know how the EU work, such as Michael Dougan, have been so incensed at the misrepresentation and fantasy from Leave about what the EU does and doesn't or can or can't do, that they have come out for Remain.
We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.
Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.
As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.
And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.
I think people really exaggerate shy electors effect. Why would you lie to someone phoning from a polling company. I mean what are they gonna do to you. Nothing.
This infographic is doing the rounds from Matt Smith, based on YouGov. Seems if we have turnout in 60-70% then Remain need to be 5+ ahead.
Really. Why were people so concerned Leave needed a clear lead of 4-5 in order to be sure of winning then? If that's right, Leave will get home easily.
Top mail comment on the article about this afternoon in HoC
'Sad about her death but hope this will now happen for any service personnel who dies in the service of our country
Thing is, that's part of the job description for service personnel. Not so much MPs. When soldiers are murdered, it's another matter (Lee Rigby, for instance)
PB mods - The widget in the thread header seems to be broken. It fails to load for me, and causes my CPU to rail at 100% for several minutes while trying to load.
Comments
The debate has moved to the point where remain have more or less admitted that EU immigration is unlimited and always will be.
Disagree? feel concerned? you are a racist.
Faced with this, the country has fallen silent. Nobody knows what people are really thinking.
This is my nth vox pop of referendum campaign: no one, anywhere, has cited a politician for why they are In or Out. https://t.co/bWg0qheJ12
A good move by Trump.
Yet even here, the oldies are revolting. A friend who works for the council (a Corbynite) reckons that no one over fifty is voting for Remain; he can't bring himself to vote Remain because of Cameron, so will probably abstain.
I'm a Leaver, my wife is edging to Remain because she feels sorry for the refugees (she does the empathy in our house). My son is working for a Danish company on secondment to the USA, and would vote Remain because of the exchange rate worries, and my daughter who lives in Sydney would have voted Leave.
But generally the split is old or poor vs young or rich and the rancour is getting worse. Probably a Leave vote will be best because that will end it (or not).
To win, all that is necessary is to ensure the working class Leave vote turns out.
Mr. Pulpstar, FACT?
"Switzerland Withdraws Application To Join EU: Only "Lunatics May Want To Join Now"
"Christoph Blocher, the Swiss former MP who led the charge to keep Switzerland out of the EU in 1992, said that Project Fear was deployed in that referendum, too. One politician predicted at the time that if it didn’t join, within five years it would be begging to do so “on its knees”.
In fact, those predictions never came to pass. “The Monday after the Sunday, the Bourse rose,” Mr. Blocher recalls. But he agrees that Britain wouldn’t get the same deal as the Swiss post-Brexit: “No, you’d get a much better deal.” His conclusion: “I think if you [Britain] leave the EU it will be very good for you.”"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07d6f8y/eu-referendum-campaign-broadcasts-vote-leave-23052016
Personally, I think the remain campaign is doing that all by themselves in the HoC today.
If they show a very clear Remain win, you may wish to tactically vote Leave.
I am sorry Bob but this simply will not happen. It is arrogant of the British to believe that after any sort of vote to Remain the EU will either want or be able to change its course or allow us to change our relationship. If we decide to set sail on the Titanic we will be stuck on board until she hits the iceberg.
Neil Kinnock Wants Baroness Warsi To Be EU Commissioner
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5573457.html?edition=uk
You therefore have a duty to vote against your instincts and vote Leave in order to ensure that the result is as close as possible.
*innocent face*
I am beginning to think a decent chance.
@JournoStephen: Potent words from @SKinnock about Jo Cox and the present political climate. https://t.co/In8YUtJzv5
@paulwaugh @JoeMurphyLondon My god, we're being governed by the sort of people who lay cuddly toys at scenes of murdered strangers for TV.
But then I think of Rochdale and large chunks of rural Britain and I think, the dispossessed will come out for Out... It's an incredibly hard call.
This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.
It will probably also be very healthy for our politics, because they won't ever be able to be sneered at, maligned or dismissed again.
I'd say he'd stand down in Autumn 2017 or Spring 2018.
Whatever happened to him?
My own view fwiw is that a REMAIN lead of 2% or more would mean their present odds holding firm or shortening, since it would indicate that the trend is continuing to go going their way.
A dead heat or a small lead for LEAVE and I would expect REMAIN's odds to lengthen appreciably, since it would then seem that the result is still up for grabs with three days to go.
What a bonkers morning.
That does disregard that the flow of powers has been towards devolution within the UK, but centralisation within the EU.
I got Boris winning in London in 2008 right, I got the hung parliament in 2010 right, I got the Tories winning most seats in 2015 right (though not the overall majority), I get EdM and Jeremy Corbyn being disasters right (though they were gimmes), I got UKIP doing best in the East in the Euros right, I got the Spanish GE right and I got the Spurs choke right.
I got the 2012 US presidential election horribly wrong and the Scottish Indy vote wrong - though I do think that call was fair enough.
The thing is that when I do go down I go down loudly. No-one on here is going to forget I predicted a Leave win, or that I stuck to that prediction. Again, with this vote given where things started from I don't think I have done too badly. Whatever happens I have been absolutely right about it being all about immigration.
He also said the fact Warsi was “manifestly a woman”
It's all about them
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28656874 a previous flounce.
We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.
Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.
As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.
And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.
@mattkatz00: Just got call from pollster testing Paul Ryan & John Kasich against Clinton. Hmmm. From Opinion Access Corp. cc: @PollsterPatrick
The fallout from the murder may have significantly up'ped the social stigma of declaring as a Leaver, which could disproportionately affect phone polls. So if ORB does show a big Remain swing tonight that could be reason to be cautious.
Or I could be clutching at straws..
It is true that we cannot be forced into the Euro. But we can do nothing to prevent the Eurozone from dominating the EU and running it according to their needs. We are going to see far more rapid movement towards more rather than less EU over the next few years and when we do eventually find we can no longer stand it, leaving will be far more painful than it would otherwise have been.
And F1 tips.
MEP referring to El Pais article saying Cameron asked for controversial EU measures to be delayed until after the ref.
Both were very moving. Mitchell spoke beautifully.
It must be an awful, surreal time for her parents in the gallery but I hope they are able to bear it enough to be super proud of their daughter.
You're correct then that a (surprise or otherwise) leave result would lead to quite a correction.
However I'm going to predict a 5 point lead for remain (if there's a YouGov poll tonight) so I wouldn't be surprised to see the remain price tighten further.
Yes. Those who know how the EU work, such as Michael Dougan, have been so incensed at the misrepresentation and fantasy from Leave about what the EU does and doesn't or can or can't do, that they have come out for Remain.
I didn't see any reply from you when I posted up the link to all the negotiation documents a couple of days ago. Have you had a chance to look at them yet?
Oh wait, the EdStone. Never mind.
'Sad about her death but hope this will now happen for any service personnel who dies in the service of our country
Oh, I still feel it gets overblown on so many situations, but I feel we can sometimes get into a kind of contest to see who wants to show they give less of a shit, or mock those who get perhaps overly emotional about it for too long.
Getting shot at might be assumed to be part of the job description for service personnel. It's not for elected representatives