You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
But less than a week ago you were convinced that Leave would win and that civilisation was about to collapse. The fact is that we won't really know until about 4am on Friday morning. Everything else is just speculation and 'polling'.
"8 Days a week doesn't make."
My favourite line from Neil Simon's sublime Barefoot in the Park
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
No. We don't belong in the EU. Either we are sidelined as the EMU federalises and turns into a single country, or we are forced into it by a series of court and QMV losses. I fully expect that the EC will propose anti-referendum legislation after the vote, something along the lines of single market suspension while the campaign takes place, just enough to put nations off ever having a referendum, but not enough to cause protests and condemnation which would force them to reverse it.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
I've been in a meeting. Planning for Brexit. Leave will win. It's a shame - our European growth matched our Asian growth last FY, it turns out, and beat our US growth (though US is by far our biggest market). Looks like we will be downgrading London and building in HK and DC, and perhaps getting ourselves a hedge office in Barcelona so that we stay inside the single market.
We need to recognise that people have been pulled up short by Jo Cox’s death and it is now time to make a very positive case for why we want to be in the European Union… to call out the other side for what they have done to stir division and resentment in the UK. That is something we must all do… This is what we think is the closing argument of the campaign, reflecting all the arguments that we have been setting out for many months but also the new context that we’re in. What we want to say is people should vote Remain on Thursday for more jobs, lower prices, workers’ rights, stronger public services and a decent, tolerant United Kingdom.”
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
If remain win it will not be possible to prove what it was that swayed people - I severely doubt hundreds of thousands of swing voters will say it was because of the late Jo Cox. In which case speculating that is the reason is pointless, and an excuse - apparently data was moving back to Remain anyway, which makes sense as there was a massive swing to leave which was likely to get some pushback.
Remain winning by a small margin won't settle it no matter if everyone who votes Remain swears on the bible it was for clear and concise reasons of substance. The only that that will settle it is an unexpected massive win for Remain, since that would show the public is not as completely divided as it appears.
I don't believe for a single second if Remain had done everything Leave wanted - Cameron taking a back seat, no dodgy stats, no dodgy mail pouts, no black swan events - and Remain still won, that people would have let it lie, if it was close. Remain don't really have a choice - if they lose, their chances to fight on are slim - but Leavers know we will have other chances, even if it takes a long time.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
A 55% vote share would have led to a vast 'Tory' majority in the HoC, but that's the only world I can think of in which 55% and vast majority would go together.
270k arrivals from the EU and 155k arrivals from outside the EU. Using the net figure makes no sense when working out the proportions.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
I've been in a meeting. Planning for Brexit. Leave will win. It's a shame - our European growth matched our Asian growth last FY, it turns out, and beat our US growth (though US is by far our biggest market). Looks like we will be downgrading London and building in HK and DC, and perhaps getting ourselves a hedge office in Barcelona so that we stay inside the single market.
I'm assuming that's tongue-in-cheek? Or has group-think got the better of you all?!
''We all get it wrong from time to time but I do get it right more than wrong and I am sure you can see the logic in today's financial moves ''
Sure I'll take my cue from you. After a thirty year career as a bond trader and professional financial journalist, what do I know, after all.
I thought we didn't listen to experts !
The rally in the stock market is a bear squeeze. All it signifies is the existence of speculative short positions. When the shorts run for cover they have to buy. It does not signify anything more than that, one way or the other. There is nothing 'in the air'.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
I've been in a meeting. Planning for Brexit. Leave will win. It's a shame - our European growth matched our Asian growth last FY, it turns out, and beat our US growth (though US is by far our biggest market). Looks like we will be downgrading London and building in HK and DC, and perhaps getting ourselves a hedge office in Barcelona so that we stay inside the single market.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
A 55% vote share would have led to a vast 'Tory' majority in the HoC, but that's the only world I can think of in which 55% and vast majority would go together.
270k arrivals from the EU and 155k arrivals from outside the EU. Using the net figure makes no sense when working out the proportions.
Even with your trying to pick out a lesser used stat, 270k / 425k still does not a vast majority make.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
I've been in a meeting. Planning for Brexit. Leave will win. It's a shame - our European growth matched our Asian growth last FY, it turns out, and beat our US growth (though US is by far our biggest market). Looks like we will be downgrading London and building in HK and DC, and perhaps getting ourselves a hedge office in Barcelona so that we stay inside the single market.
I'm assuming that's tongue-in-cheek? Or has group-think got the better of you all?!
Southam Observer has always thought Leave would win.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
I've been in a meeting. Planning for Brexit. Leave will win. It's a shame - our European growth matched our Asian growth last FY, it turns out, and beat our US growth (though US is by far our biggest market). Looks like we will be downgrading London and building in HK and DC, and perhaps getting ourselves a hedge office in Barcelona so that we stay inside the single market.
Remain will win (narrowly).
The most entertaining result will be Remain win but England votes to Leave.... We might at least get an English Parliament out of that. Or else England votes to expel Scotland from the Union!
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.
I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.
But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
The probability implied by Betfair is several percent higher than 25% because the value of the betting token is affected by the outcome. If you think the probability of Leave is (just over) 25%, betting on Leave at 25% would be a horrible deal, because a losing bet costs you what would have been increased-value Remainian pounds, whereas a winning bet pays in devalued Brexit pounds.
This is probably why USD-denominated markets have Leave several points higher.
If remain win it will not be possible to prove what it was that swayed people - I severely doubt hundreds of thousands of swing voters will say it was because of the late Jo Cox. In which case speculating that is the reason is pointless, and an excuse - apparently data was moving back to Remain anyway, which makes sense as there was a massive swing to leave which was likely to get some pushback.
Remain winning by a small margin won't settle it no matter if everyone who votes Remain swears on the bible it was for clear and concise reasons of substance. The only that that will settle it is an unexpected massive win for Remain, since that would show the public is not as completely divided as it appears.
I don't believe for a single second if Remain had done everything Leave wanted - Cameron taking a back seat, no dodgy stats, no dodgy mail pouts, no black swan events - and Remain still won, that people would have let it lie, if it was close. Remain don't really have a choice - if they lose, their chances to fight on are slim - but Leavers know we will have other chances, even if it takes a long time.
As I said, even if it was a somewhat fair win, not on the back of a dead MP and an odd week of national mourning for her, then I think most people would have accepted it and moved on. I probably would have. A small loss a week after some nationalist nutter kills an MP and then seeing the remain side exploit it over and over, while pretending not to, makes me want to keep going because I know the argument can be won, it was lost to a black swan rather than the failure of the arguments to leave.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
No. We don't belong in the EU. Either we are sidelined as the EMU federalises and turns into a single country, or we are forced into it by a series of court and QMV losses. I fully expect that the EC will propose anti-referendum legislation after the vote, something along the lines of single market suspension while the campaign takes place, just enough to put nations off ever having a referendum, but not enough to cause protests and condemnation which would force them to reverse it.
I don't see how they can propose anti-referendum legislation. (Not to say it won't be discussed, but I can't see how the treaties could be stretched to cover it.)
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.
I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.
But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.
Given the changes in polling methodologies, we have continually been comparing apples with Toyota headlights. I always expected them to herd around a narrow Remain win. I still expect many to do that.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?.
Yes. Any price is not worth it, not when there will be other chances. But judging the price is not easy, and done on gut.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
No. We don't belong in the EU. Either we are sidelined as the EMU federalises and turns into a single country, or we are forced into it by a series of court and QMV losses. I fully expect that the EC will propose anti-referendum legislation after the vote, something along the lines of single market suspension while the campaign takes place, just enough to put nations off ever having a referendum, but not enough to cause protests and condemnation which would force them to reverse it.
I don't see how they can propose anti-referendum legislation. (Not to say it won't be discussed, but I can't see how the treaties could be stretched to cover it.)
QE shouldn't have been possible under the treaties, yet the ECJ gave it the go ahead. EU treaties can be ignored whenever necessary. They only seem to apply when it suits them.
One of the findings from the latest and final Ashcroft focus groups.
The Totnes Question – how will you feel if you wake up next Friday and the country has voted for Brexit – turned out to be a revealing one for our wavering voters. More often than not, it was a sobering thought: “Nervous”, “anxious”, “apprehensive”, even “alone”; “I just wonder what is going to happen next. If that does happen there will be five or six years of change.”
But some said their apprehension would be tinged with excitement, and even surprised themselves with their answer to the opposite question – how they would feel on hearing Remain had won? “I’ve just realised I would be disappointed. And before that I had no idea what I was going to do;” “I’d be a bit more anxious. Part of me thinks we’d be better outside. I find a new challenge quite exciting. If we hadn’t got that, I’d think, ‘have we made a mistake?’ ”
There’s not a lot to choose between the sides, is there? It’s been, and will probably keep on being a squalid debate, started for purely partisan reasons.
"The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight".
If remain win it will not be possible to prove what it was that swayed people - I severely doubt hundreds of thousands of swing voters will say it was because of the late Jo Cox. In which case speculating that is the reason is pointless, and an excuse - apparently data was moving back to Remain anyway, which makes sense as there was a massive swing to leave which was likely to get some pushback.
Remain winning by a small margin won't settle it no matter if everyone who votes Remain swears on the bible it was for clear and concise reasons of substance. The only that that will settle it is an unexpected massive win for Remain, since that would show the public is not as completely divided as it appears.
I don't believe for a single second if Remain had done everything Leave wanted - Cameron taking a back seat, no dodgy stats, no dodgy mail pouts, no black swan events - and Remain still won, that people would have let it lie, if it was close. Remain don't really have a choice - if they lose, their chances to fight on are slim - but Leavers know we will have other chances, even if it takes a long time.
As I said, even if it was a somewhat fair win, not on the back of a dead MP and an odd week of national mourning for her, then I think most people would have accepted it and moved on. I probably would have. A small loss a week after some nationalist nutter kills an MP and then seeing the remain side exploit it over and over, while pretending not to, makes me want to keep going because I know the argument can be won, it was lost to a black swan rather than the failure of the arguments to leave.
You seem to have missed my opening - we may disagree on whether after a 'fair' win people would have accepted it. My principal point, however, is we cannot know why people vote a certain way or not. Leave and Remain can pitch to the heavens on their points of preference, but people will vote for their own reasons. ANd sometimes pretty stupid ones. And even if people are using poor Cox as a political tool, if Remain win we cannot know, know for certain, that that is what swing it, particularly since the data was heading back to remain anyway
It remains, ha, an excuse. How many time were Tories on here told that just because they won a majority does not mean everyone who voted for them supported everything that was in their manifesto for example? Plenty, and it's true. Unless people come out and say 'I did this for Jo' we don't know if it had an effect - and I will bet good money when Leave win there will be plenty of people saying it had no effect after all - and it is an excuse to use that as a presumption for further grievance.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
The probability implied by Betfair is several percent higher than 25% because the value of the betting token is affected by the outcome. If you think the probability of Leave is (just over) 25%, betting on Leave at 25% would be a horrible deal, because a losing bet costs you what would have been increased-value Remainian pounds, whereas a winning bet pays in devalued Brexit pounds.
This is probably why USD-denominated markets have Leave several points higher.
Unless you live in England, in which case the pound in your pocket is worth no more and no less than it was before...
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
The probability implied by Betfair is several percent higher than 25% because the value of the betting token is affected by the outcome. If you think the probability of Leave is (just over) 25%, betting on Leave at 25% would be a horrible deal, because a losing bet costs you what would have been increased-value Remainian pounds, whereas a winning bet pays in devalued Brexit pounds.
This is probably why USD-denominated markets have Leave several points higher.
Unless you live in England, in which case the pound in your pocket is worth no more and no less than it was before...
@GuardianAnushka: Corbyn calls murder of Jo Cox an act of extreme political violence.
Is that not sub judice (just like this post)?
Presumably not if the Speaker has allowed it - and anyone can report the events of parliament without fear of the sanction providing that it's done accurately.
Bloody hell Southam. I hadn't heard from you calling a Brexit for a couple of hours...I was getting really worried and going to call the Police and report you as a missing person.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
I've been in a meeting. Planning for Brexit. Leave will win. It's a shame - our European growth matched our Asian growth last FY, it turns out, and beat our US growth (though US is by far our biggest market). Looks like we will be downgrading London and building in HK and DC, and perhaps getting ourselves a hedge office in Barcelona so that we stay inside the single market.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
No. We don't belong in the EU. Either we are sidelined as the EMU federalises and turns into a single country, or we are forced into it by a series of court and QMV losses. I fully expect that the EC will propose anti-referendum legislation after the vote, something along the lines of single market suspension while the campaign takes place, just enough to put nations off ever having a referendum, but not enough to cause protests and condemnation which would force them to reverse it.
Only way out is through a UK Government led exit negotiation, which means things getting so bad they win a GE on that basis through a manifesto commitment, IMHO.
One of the findings from the latest and final Ashcroft focus groups.
The Totnes Question – how will you feel if you wake up next Friday and the country has voted for Brexit – turned out to be a revealing one for our wavering voters. More often than not, it was a sobering thought: “Nervous”, “anxious”, “apprehensive”, even “alone”; “I just wonder what is going to happen next. If that does happen there will be five or six years of change.”
But some said their apprehension would be tinged with excitement, and even surprised themselves with their answer to the opposite question – how they would feel on hearing Remain had won? “I’ve just realised I would be disappointed. And before that I had no idea what I was going to do;” “I’d be a bit more anxious. Part of me thinks we’d be better outside. I find a new challenge quite exciting. If we hadn’t got that, I’d think, ‘have we made a mistake?’ ”
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
None. Remaining in the EU is worse than any possible reasonable projection of our future outside.
In fact I do believe that we are going to be forced out at some point in the next decade or so because our vision of a future EU is so fundamentally different from both the vision of the rest of the EU and, far more importantly, what is actualy going to have to happen for them to survive.
The big difference being we could have left now with relatively little shock or we can be forced out in the future with a huge shock and probably a lot more harm to our country politically and financially before it happens.
If remain win it will not be possible to prove what it was that swayed people - I severely doubt hundreds of thousands of swing voters will say it was because of the late Jo Cox. In which case speculating that is the reason is pointless, and an excuse - apparently data was moving back to Remain anyway, which makes sense as there was a massive swing to leave which was likely to get some pushback.
Remain winning by a small margin won't settle it no matter if everyone who votes Remain swears on the bible it was for clear and concise reasons of substance. The only that that will settle it is an unexpected massive win for Remain, since that would show the public is not as completely divided as it appears.
I don't believe for a single second if Remain had done everything Leave wanted - Cameron taking a back seat, no dodgy stats, no dodgy mail pouts, no black swan events - and Remain still won, that people would have let it lie, if it was close. Remain don't really have a choice - if they lose, their chances to fight on are slim - but Leavers know we will have other chances, even if it takes a long time.
As I said, even if it was a somewhat fair win, not on the back of a dead MP and an odd week of national mourning for her, then I think most people would have accepted it and moved on. I probably would have. A small loss a week after some nationalist nutter kills an MP and then seeing the remain side exploit it over and over, while pretending not to, makes me want to keep going because I know the argument can be won, it was lost to a black swan rather than the failure of the arguments to leave.
You seem to have missed my opening - we may disagree on whether after a 'fair' win people would have accepted it. My principal point, however, is we cannot know why people vote a certain way or not. Leave and Remain can pitch to the heavens on their points of preference, but people will vote for their own reasons. ANd sometimes pretty stupid ones. And even if people are using poor Cox as a political tool, if Remain win we cannot know, know for certain, that that is what swing it, particularly since the data was heading back to remain anyway
It remains, ha, an excuse. How many time were Tories on here told that just because they won a majority does not mean everyone who voted for them supported everything that was in their manifesto for example? Plenty, and it's true. Unless people come out and say 'I did this for Jo' we don't know if it had an effect - and I will bet good money when Leave win there will be plenty of people saying it had no effect after all - and it is an excuse to use that as a presumption for further grievance.
I can't help but think that people who are voting "Remain for Jo" would have done so anyway.
Antanas Guoga, a Lithuanian MEP better known as the former poker champion “Tony G,” challenged Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage to a €1 million bet Monday on the outcome of the U.K.’s EU referendum.
Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his poker-playing days and his subsequent online poker empire, has seized on a recent Farage stunt of betting £1,000 on Brexit, and is upping the stakes a thousand-fold.
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Bloody hell Southam. I hadn't heard from you calling a Brexit for a couple of hours...I was getting really worried and going to call the Police and report you as a missing person.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
I've been in a meeting. Planning for Brexit. Leave will win. It's a shame - our European growth matched our Asian growth last FY, it turns out, and beat our US growth (though US is by far our biggest market). Looks like we will be downgrading London and building in HK and DC, and perhaps getting ourselves a hedge office in Barcelona so that we stay inside the single market.
As ever, I hope to be wrong. But best to plan.
It's never a good idea to take voters for granted.
Antanas Guoga, a Lithuanian MEP better known as the former poker champion “Tony G,” challenged Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage to a €1 million bet Monday on the outcome of the U.K.’s EU referendum.
Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his poker-playing days and his subsequent online poker empire, has seized on a recent Farage stunt of betting £1,000 on Brexit, and is upping the stakes a thousand-fold.
QE shouldn't have been possible under the treaties, yet the ECJ gave it the go ahead. EU treaties can be ignored whenever necessary. They only seem to apply when it suits them.
Firstly, I'm not sure it's as simple as that. The treaties allow the ECB a lot of latitude in actions takes to achieve price stability and to ensure the "transmission of monetary policies". What was prohibited was monetary financing of deficits. Clearly, the ECB - in its daily business - will find itself owning government bonds from time to time (indeed, I doubt there's a central bank in the world that doesn't own some of its government's debt at any given moment). So, to be in breach of the treaties you have to say that the wholesale secondary purchase of government bonds - with the explicit purpose of changing the shape of the yield curve - is monetary financing. At most, it's a grey area.
Secondly, I don't think it's comparable. In the one case, the ECB is acting as an agent, and doing something that might or might not be allowed by treaties. In the other, it would be the EC/ECJ attempting to prevent national governments from doing something. I read the Lisbon Treaty, and I simply don't see where they would be able to get the power from. Which the ECJ continually seeks to interpret the treaties in the context of "ever closer union", they can only do that by using and twisting the words that are already there. I simply don't see how they could do that here. Indeed, Article 5 - on the Principe of Conferral - would seem to explicitly prevent it.
If remain win it will not be possible to prove what it was that swayed people - I severely doubt hundreds of thousands of swing voters will say it was because of the late Jo Cox. In which case speculating that is the reason is pointless, and an excuse - apparently data was moving back to Remain anyway, which makes sense as there was a massive swing to leave which was likely to get some pushback.
Remain winning by a small margin won't settle it no matter if everyone who votes Remain swears on the bible it was for clear and concise reasons of substance. The only that that will settle it is an unexpected massive win for Remain, since that would show the public is not as completely divided as it appears.
I don't believe for a single seconblack swan events - and Remain still won, that people would have let it lie, if it was close. Remain don't really have a choice - if they lose, their chances to fight on are slim - but Leavers know we will have other chances, even if it takes a long time.
As I said, even if it was a somewhve.
You seem to have missed my opening - we may disagree on whether after a 'fair' win people would have accepted it. My principal point, however, is we cannot know why people vote a certain way or not. Leave and Remain can pitch to the heavens on their points of preference, but people will vote for their own reasons. ANd sometimes pretty stupid ones. And even if people are using poor Cox as a political tool, if Remain win we cannot know, know for certain, that that is what swing it, particularly since the data was heading back to remain anyway
It remains, ha, an excuse. How many time were Tories on here told that just because they won a majority does not mean everyone who voted for them supported everything that was in their manifesto for example? Plenty, and it's true. Unless people come out and say 'I did this for Jo' we don't know if it had an effect - and I will bet good money when Leave win there will be plenty of people saying it had no effect after all - and it is an excuse to use that as a presumption for further grievance.
I can't help but think that people who are voting "Remain for Jo" would have done so anyway.
Certainly a possibility - and another reason blaming the defeat directly on the event, and thus branding it unfair (on that basis at least, other reasons may lead people to think it unfair), is unreasonable. You could perhaps argue it impacted the national narrative, the mood music, and that may have swayed people, but how do you calculate that? Why is it unfair even if it does? NickPalmer told a story of someone who voted for him because they liked he was taller than his opponent, would that have made his victory unfair if he won by one vote?
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...
'Only way out is through a UK Government led exit negotiation, which means things getting so bad they win a GE on that basis through a manifesto commitment, IMHO.'
With a Brexit Tory leader and the EU rapidly backsliding on Cameron's pathetic deal,plus EU army and the rest of the garbage that won't take long.A good chance it will be in the 2020 manifesto.
If remain win it will not be possible to prove what it was that swayed people - I severely doubt hundreds of thousands of swing voters will say it was because of the late Jo Cox. In which case speculating that is the reason is pointless, and an excuse - apparently data was moving back to Remain anyway, which makes sense as there was a massive swing to leave which was likely to get some pushback.
Remain winning by a small margin won't settle it no matter if everyone who votes Remain swears on the bible it was for clear and concise reasons of substance. The only that that will settle it is an unexpected massive win for Remain, since that would show the public is not as completely divided as it appears.
I don't believe for a single second if Remain had done everything Leave wanted - Cameron taking a back seat, no dodgy stats, no dodgy mail pouts, no black swan events - and Remain still won, that people would have let it lie, if it was close. Remain don't really have a choice - if they lose, their chances to fight on are slim - but Leavers know we will have other chances, even if it takes a long time.
As I said, even if it was a somewhat fair win,
You seem to have missed my opening - we may disagree on whether after a 'fair' win people would have accepted it. My principal point, however, is we cannot know why people vote a certain way or not. Leave and Remain can pitch to the heavens on their points of preference, but people will vote for their own reasons. ANd sometimes pretty stupid ones. And even if people are using poor Cox as a political tool, if Remain win we cannot know, know for certain, that that is what swing it, particularly since the data was heading back to remain anyway
It remains, ha, an excuse. How many time were Tories on here told that just because they won a majority does not mean everyone who voted for them supported everything that was in their manifesto for example? Plenty, and it's true. Unless people come out and say 'I did this for Jo' we don't know if it had an effect - and I will bet good money when Leave win there will be plenty of people saying it had no effect after all - and it is an excuse to use that as a presumption for further grievance.
I can't help but think that people who are voting "Remain for Jo" would have done so anyway.
As far as i can tell, it has allowed voluble virtue-signalling on that basis from previously inclined Remainers on my timeline.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.
I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.
But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.
I want Remain to win - but by a tiny margin of a couple of thousand votes. A country split right down the middle. We'd stay in, for now, until the PM whether it's this one or the next, negotiates a better deal. In the meantime no Eurocrat could plausibly argue that Brits had clearly voted for more of the same.
Where that desire leaves my vote on Thursday I'm still not 100%. But as I instinctively want to stay in a better EU, and I'm scared of the risks of Leave, I think I have to vote Remain, on principle.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
No. We don't belong in the EU. Either we are sidelined as the EMU federalises and turns into a single country, or we are forced into it by a series of court and QMV losses. I fully expect that the EC will propose anti-referendum legislation after the vote, something along the lines of single market suspension while the campaign takes place, just enough to put nations off ever having a referendum, but not enough to cause protests and condemnation which would force them to reverse it.
Only way out is through a UK Government led exit negotiation, which means things getting so bad they win a GE on that basis through a manifesto commitment, IMHO.
To be honest, I think we need a government advocated Leave, because then the destination would be clear. Which would make for a much more honest and open discussion about the compromises and costs of every action.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.
I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.
But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.
I want Remain to win - but by a tiny margin of a couple of thousand votes. A country split right down the middle. We'd stay in, for now, until the PM whether it's this one or the next, negotiates a better deal. In the meantime no Eurocrat could plausibly argue that Brits had clearly voted for more of the same.
Where that desire leaves my vote on Thursday I'm still not 100%. But as I instinctively want to stay in a better EU, and I'm scared of the risks of Leave, I think I have to vote Remain, on principle.
If that's your position, you should consider close examination of the final polls.
If they show a very clear Remain win, you may wish to tactically vote Leave.
Antanas Guoga, a Lithuanian MEP better known as the former poker champion “Tony G,” challenged Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage to a €1 million bet Monday on the outcome of the U.K.’s EU referendum.
Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his poker-playing days and his subsequent online poker empire, has seized on a recent Farage stunt of betting £1,000 on Brexit, and is upping the stakes a thousand-fold.
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...
He called the 2015 general election correctly, too.
'Only way out is through a UK Government led exit negotiation, which means things getting so bad they win a GE on that basis through a manifesto commitment, IMHO.'
With a Brexit Tory leader and the EU rapidly backsliding on Cameron's pathetic deal,plus EU army and the rest of the garbage that won't take long.A good chance it will be in the 2020 manifesto.
It will be up to us to hold both to account.
I'm afraid there's nothing on here, or elsewhere, that gives me any confidence that lessons will be learnt.
Antanas Guoga, a Lithuanian MEP better known as the former poker champion “Tony G,” challenged Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage to a €1 million bet Monday on the outcome of the U.K.’s EU referendum.
Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his poker-playing days and his subsequent online poker empire, has seized on a recent Farage stunt of betting £1,000 on Brexit, and is upping the stakes a thousand-fold.
I've actually been logged in as Tony G on his own website once playing poker. He passed me his laptop whilst he went to do something else, rather shamefully I lost about a hundred quid for him !
If remain win it will not be possible to prove what it was that swayed people - I severely doubt hundreds of thousands of swing voters will say it was because of the late Jo Cox. In which case speculating that is the reason is pointless, and an excuse - apparently data was moving back to Remain anyway, which makes sense as there was a massive swing to leave which was likely to get some pushback.
Remain winning by a small margin won't settle it no matter if everyone who votes Remain swears on the bible it was for clear and concise reasons of substance. The only that that will settle it is an unexpected massive win for Remain, since that would show the public is not as completely divided as it appears.
I don't believe for a single second if Remain had done everything Leave wanted - Cameron taking a back seat, no dodgy stats, no dodgy mail pouts, no black swan events - and Remain still won, that people would have let it lie, if it was close. Remain don't really have a choice - if they lose, their chances to fight on are slim - but Leavers know we will have other chances, even if it takes a long time.
As I said, even if it was a somewhat fair win,
You seem to have missed my opening - we may disagree on whether after a 'fair' win people would have accepted it. My principal point, however, is we cannot know why people vote a certain way or not. Leave and Remain can pitch to the heavens on their points of preference, but people will vote for their own reasons. ANd sometimes pretty stupid ones. And even if people are using poor Cox as a political tool, if Remain win we cannot know, know for certain, that that is what swing it, particularly since the data was heading back to remain anyway
It remains, ha, an excuse. How many time were Tories on here told that just because they won a majority does not mean everyone who voted for them supported everything that was in their manifesto for example? Plenty, and it's true. Unless people come out and say 'I did this for Jo' we don't know if it had an effect - and I will bet good money when Leave win there will be plenty of people saying it had no effect after all - and it is an excuse to use that as a presumption for further grievance.
I can't help but think that people who are voting "Remain for Jo" would have done so anyway.
As far as i can tell, it has allowed voluble virtue-signalling on that basis from previously inclined Remainers on my timeline.
I haven't been on Facebook since Thursday morning. I'd only be sick into my hand.
Antanas Guoga, a Lithuanian MEP better known as the former poker champion “Tony G,” challenged Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage to a €1 million bet Monday on the outcome of the U.K.’s EU referendum.
Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his poker-playing days and his subsequent online poker empire, has seized on a recent Farage stunt of betting £1,000 on Brexit, and is upping the stakes a thousand-fold.
I've actually been logged in as Tony G on his own website once playing poker. He passed me his laptop whilst he went to do something else, rather shamefully I lost about a hundred quid for him !
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
The probability implied by Betfair is several percent higher than 25% because the value of the betting token is affected by the outcome. If you think the probability of Leave is (just over) 25%, betting on Leave at 25% would be a horrible deal, because a losing bet costs you what would have been increased-value Remainian pounds, whereas a winning bet pays in devalued Brexit pounds.
This is probably why USD-denominated markets have Leave several points higher.
Unless you live in England, in which case the pound in your pocket is worth no more and no less than it was before...
Even if you agree with Harold Wilson on this point (ie you don't buy anything imported) you'd still be better off making the bet at the same odds on a USD-denominated market then changing your winnings back to pounds. Of course this doesn't work because the market has already priced this in, by demanding a premium on GPB-denominated Leave bets.
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...
He called the 2015 general election correctly, too.
Stephen Kinnock in his tribute has just mentioned that BLOODY POSTER. THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST UNBELIEVABLE. THEIR TRIBALISM AND SANCTIMONIOUS ARROGANCE, JUST KNOWS NO BOUNDS. I'M DISGUSTED. IT'S NOT ABOUT THEM.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Apparently the polls were moving in Remain's direction before the tragic death of Jo Cox. I can't find the quote from a pollster but others must have seen that.
They weren't, both the polls taken over the time of the event showed a large leave lead before and level pegging after. I still think leave has a good chance, better than the 25% implied by betfair, but remain is surely the favourite now.
I'm not sure. Survation had Leave 3% ahead, and then Remain 3% ahead. That could be a reaction to the murder, or just normal variation. Yougov had Leave 2% ahead, and then Remain 1% ahead.
I expect the polls will show a further swing to Remain tonight.
But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.
How do you know what 'Brits' want? As Southam says "It's never a good idea to take voters for granted."
Stephen Kinnock in his tribute has just mentioned that BLOODY POSTER. THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST UNBELIEVABLE. THEIR TRIBALISM AND SANCTIMONIOUS ARROGANCE, JUST KNOWS NO BOUNDS. I'M DISGUSTED. IT'S NOT ABOUT THEM.
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...
He called the 2015 general election correctly, too.
We are clutching at straws!!
Both sides are
Who knows what the country really thinks. Even my polling models are as good as a blamange right now..
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
No. We don't belong in the EU. Either we are sidelined as the EMU federalises and turns into a single country, or we are forced into it by a series of court and QMV losses. I fully expect that the EC will propose anti-referendum legislation after the vote, something along the lines of single market suspension while the campaign takes place, just enough to put nations off ever having a referendum, but not enough to cause protests and condemnation which would force them to reverse it.
Only way out is through a UK Government led exit negotiation, which means things getting so bad they win a GE on that basis through a manifesto commitment, IMHO.
To be honest, I think we need a government advocated Leave, because then the destination would be clear. Which would make for a much more honest and open discussion about the compromises and costs of every action.
The 2020 Conservative manifesto will be an interesting one.
Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment
I am furious with Farage.
There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.
It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....
Nothing we can do about it mate.
I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.
The wailing and gnashing of teeth re Farage would have a lot more credibility if Leave hadn't descended into a Farage-like campaign.
A couple of weeks ago when the Leave campaign was tanking they took a deliberate decision to refocus the campaign on exploiting anti-immigration feeling.
It may yet work, I think it's in the balance, but if Leave do now manage to win it won't be Britain's finest hour IMO.
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012 Romney victory
European elections 2014 Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
Southam's recent record has been very good recently - Jeremy Corbyn; Spurs...
I love Southam's unswerving self belief once he gets an idea into his head- one of pbCOM's redeeming features. He strikes me as the kind of chap you want around in a crisis, unlike me who flaps ever so slightly.
Stephen Kinnock in his tribute has just mentioned that BLOODY POSTER. THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST UNBELIEVABLE. THEIR TRIBALISM AND SANCTIMONIOUS ARROGANCE, JUST KNOWS NO BOUNDS. I'M DISGUSTED. IT'S NOT ABOUT THEM.
Comments
My favourite line from Neil Simon's sublime Barefoot in the Park
@GerryHassan: Labour MP Kate Hoey & Nigel Farage earlier today on the Thames campaigning for #Brexit. #EUref https://t.co/DL39o0j2BZ
We need to recognise that people have been pulled up short by Jo Cox’s death and it is now time to make a very positive case for why we want to be in the European Union… to call out the other side for what they have done to stir division and resentment in the UK. That is something we must all do… This is what we think is the closing argument of the campaign, reflecting all the arguments that we have been setting out for many months but also the new context that we’re in. What we want to say is people should vote Remain on Thursday for more jobs, lower prices, workers’ rights, stronger public services and a decent, tolerant United Kingdom.”
Remain winning by a small margin won't settle it no matter if everyone who votes Remain swears on the bible it was for clear and concise reasons of substance. The only that that will settle it is an unexpected massive win for Remain, since that would show the public is not as completely divided as it appears.
I don't believe for a single second if Remain had done everything Leave wanted - Cameron taking a back seat, no dodgy stats, no dodgy mail pouts, no black swan events - and Remain still won, that people would have let it lie, if it was close. Remain don't really have a choice - if they lose, their chances to fight on are slim - but Leavers know we will have other chances, even if it takes a long time.
'Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.'
Dream on.
The BBC online front page actually more balanced then the skynews one both today and tommorow.
Oh well I guess we can't win when the government's line is for ever closer union, which will happen now.
I rather see a Jeremy Corbyn government then a europhile Tory one. Wont be voting until we have a Tory party that is led by an outer.
You forgot this one.
Apologies if already posted.
But, I then expect a convergence as that is reported. Brits do not want a clear Remain win, and nor do I think they will vote on a massively ramped-up sentimental reaction, a hand which Remain are shamelessly overplaying at the moment.
This is probably why USD-denominated markets have Leave several points higher.
Remain advocates think all leave supporters are racists. No ifs no buts. Racists.
The Totnes Question – how will you feel if you wake up next Friday and the country has voted for Brexit – turned out to be a revealing one for our wavering voters. More often than not, it was a sobering thought: “Nervous”, “anxious”, “apprehensive”, even “alone”; “I just wonder what is going to happen next. If that does happen there will be five or six years of change.”
But some said their apprehension would be tinged with excitement, and even surprised themselves with their answer to the opposite question – how they would feel on hearing Remain had won? “I’ve just realised I would be disappointed. And before that I had no idea what I was going to do;” “I’d be a bit more anxious. Part of me thinks we’d be better outside. I find a new challenge quite exciting. If we hadn’t got that, I’d think, ‘have we made a mistake?’ ”
See
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-my-final-eu-referendum-focus-groups-i-cant-make-my-mind-up-its-a-lot-of-responsibility-and-i-really-want-to-get-it-right.html
Still voting Remain, though!
Sounds about right.
It remains, ha, an excuse. How many time were Tories on here told that just because they won a majority does not mean everyone who voted for them supported everything that was in their manifesto for example? Plenty, and it's true. Unless people come out and say 'I did this for Jo' we don't know if it had an effect - and I will bet good money when Leave win there will be plenty of people saying it had no effect after all - and it is an excuse to use that as a presumption for further grievance.
Still normal service resumed.
In fact I do believe that we are going to be forced out at some point in the next decade or so because our vision of a future EU is so fundamentally different from both the vision of the rest of the EU and, far more importantly, what is actualy going to have to happen for them to survive.
The big difference being we could have left now with relatively little shock or we can be forced out in the future with a huge shock and probably a lot more harm to our country politically and financially before it happens.
Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his poker-playing days and his subsequent online poker empire, has seized on a recent Farage stunt of betting £1,000 on Brexit, and is upping the stakes a thousand-fold.
http://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-e1-million-bet-on-uk-referendum-brexit-antanas-guoga/
Southam has a long and distinguished track record of making entirely wrong predictions based upon what he least wants to happen. In other words, he's a pessimist punter.
Examine the following Southam predictions:
US Presidential election 2012
Romney victory
European elections 2014
Labour pushed into third place*
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Yes victory
*He is, however, a gentleman and a scholar, and immediately paid £20 to my favourite charity Amnesty having lost a bet with me on this
It's never a good idea to take voters for granted.
Secondly, I don't think it's comparable. In the one case, the ECB is acting as an agent, and doing something that might or might not be allowed by treaties. In the other, it would be the EC/ECJ attempting to prevent national governments from doing something. I read the Lisbon Treaty, and I simply don't see where they would be able to get the power from. Which the ECJ continually seeks to interpret the treaties in the context of "ever closer union", they can only do that by using and twisting the words that are already there. I simply don't see how they could do that here. Indeed, Article 5 - on the Principe of Conferral - would seem to explicitly prevent it.
'Only way out is through a UK Government led exit negotiation, which means things getting so bad they win a GE on that basis through a manifesto commitment, IMHO.'
With a Brexit Tory leader and the EU rapidly backsliding on Cameron's pathetic deal,plus EU army and the rest of the garbage that won't take long.A good chance it will be in the 2020 manifesto.
Where that desire leaves my vote on Thursday I'm still not 100%. But as I instinctively want to stay in a better EU, and I'm scared of the risks of Leave, I think I have to vote Remain, on principle.
Grandchildren
If they show a very clear Remain win, you may wish to tactically vote Leave.
I'm afraid there's nothing on here, or elsewhere, that gives me any confidence that lessons will be learnt.
He's a top chap though and a very nice man.
Here's a vid of him at the table:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW1YOluDM3M
"All generalizations are dangerous, even this one"
One of my favourite places. No cars!
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sark-the-channel-islands-hcbz9cgv5?shareToken=7a173692ea8d2d2523d867ed0bf9693e
A big, safe, economic offer and pledge if they want to win over enough waverers to cross the line.
Also needs to be done in a way that HMG and EU can't immediately unpick.
"Stop eating them then."
LOL
As Southam says "It's never a good idea to take voters for granted."
Who knows what the country really thinks. Even my polling models are as good as a blamange right now..
A couple of weeks ago when the Leave campaign was tanking they took a deliberate decision to refocus the campaign on exploiting anti-immigration feeling.
It may yet work, I think it's in the balance, but if Leave do now manage to win it won't be Britain's finest hour IMO.
I don;t think they have. I doubt very much if the wave of Coxsteria in the HoC is mirrored in any way by the feeling in the country.
It is the establishment honouring one of its own.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/284090-trump-fires-campaign-manager
Episode one (May 29): 4.3million viewers; 21% audience share
Episode two (June 5): 2.8million viewers; 14% audience share
Episode three (June 12): 2.4million viewers; 10% audience share
Episode four (June 19): 2.3million viewers; 10% audience share
Titter.