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TheScreamingEagles

First like Remain. I hope

kle4

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

Roger

There's always the possibility that Thomas Mair might call himself 'Britain Stronger in Europe'

TheScreamingEagles

It's real money. £40 million matched so far, which makes me wonder if this is an indicator for high turnout ?

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

Casino_Royale

If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.

Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?

We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

First like Remain. I hope

It's the hope that hurts.

On both sides.

CarlottaVance

Full moon tonight......just sayin'......

Pong

Roger said:

There's always the possibility that Thomas Mair might call himself 'Britain Stronger in Europe'

"On reflection, I've decided to abstain"

kle4

Roger said:

There's always the possibility that Thomas Mair might call himself 'Britain Stronger in Europe'

LOL

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

After such big swings the other way it makes sense - but personally I think the direction of travel overall remains clear.

Scott_P

Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!

http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum

nunu

I don't see how there can be anything other than a big Remain poll lead today or tomorrow. Perhaps 7 points.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's real money. £40 million matched so far, which makes me wonder if this is an indicator for high turnout ?

How many punters?

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

First like Remain. I hope

It's the hope that hurts.

On both sides.

Could be worse - as a more pessimistic Leaver, I'm pretty sure it'll be awful in the short term no matter what happens!

Jebediah_Beane1

Private polling is a possibility. Boris's damascene conversion to the plight of immigrants yesterday and Warsi's "defection" today suggest the actions of people who have seen data we haven't. Boris, especially, appears to see a need to attract people who may have been turned off by last week's events. Add in today's strengthening of the pound makes private polling data a real suspect here.

MarqueeMark

On the question of postal votes from the previous thread, no doubt postals will represent a higher proportion of the Electoral Register now that all the dead and moved away and duplicates have been stripped out. (Although if there was large-scale abuse of the postal vote system, maybe some of that abuse has been weeded out too, which would travel in the opposite direction.)

Marco1

The establishment will never allow a Leave vote

Jobabob

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

After such big swings the other way it makes sense - but personally I think the direction of travel overall remains clear.

Are you still going to vote Leave despite accepting the economic chaos it will visit on a generation?

I had hoped you would have seen sense by now.

Blue_rog

There may be an undercurrent of hard headed realism that will appear in the ballot box rather than the natural sympathy for the murdered MP

Big_G_NorthWales

Casino_Royale said:

If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.

Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?

We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.

The movement today is very surprising as apart from a couple of polls I do not see what is accounting for it. Markets across Europe up over 3% and strong rises in currencies and oil. I would like to know what is driving this sudden change

TGOHF

Casino_Royale said:

If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.

Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?

We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.

From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.

Could be a Bismark..

MarqueeMark

nunu said:

I don't see how there can be anything other than a big Remain poll lead today or tomorrow. Perhaps 7 points.

Telephone?

Jobabob

TGOHF said:

Casino_Royale said:

If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.

Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?

We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.

From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.

Could be a Bismark..

How is mayor Zac working out for you? LOL.

Luckyguy1983

Jobabob said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

After such big swings the other way it makes sense - but personally I think the direction of travel overall remains clear.

Are you still going to vote Leave despite accepting the economic chaos it will visit on a generation?

I had hoped you would have seen sense by now.

Remind us which party you support again?

Casino_Royale

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.

Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?

We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.

The movement today is very surprising as apart from a couple of polls I do not see what is accounting for it. Markets across Europe up over 3% and strong rises in currencies and oil. I would like to know what is driving this sudden change

This is starting to feel a bit Rubio-y.

I may top up on Leave.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. P, I'm not sure a democratic vote to leave to leave a supra-national political organisation is necessarily the moral equivalent of annexing another country.

Jobabob

So we have Marquee Mark forecasting mass dismissals from the Times newsdesk and Plato quoting from comments from a Katie Hopkins article.

DYOR.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

Although both the headline numbers and the supplementaries in last week's Sunday Times poll, and this week's Sunday Times poll were almost identical. What was surprising was the Yougov poll jumping from level pegging (where it's been more or less throughout the campaign) to a 7% Leave lead on Monday night.

Casino_Royale

TGOHF said:

Casino_Royale said:

If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.

Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?

We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.

From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.

Could be a Bismark..

The big change (only one) I've detected since last week is previously unenthusiastic/soft Remainers suddenly firming up and going full-on on social media, and sticking up Remain posters in their windows.

At the same time, I have scaled back due to the amount of heat and flak I was getting. And so have other Leavers.

Roger

Scott_P said:

Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!

http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum

That's the longest piece I've ever read by JK. It's very good

Pulpstar

4.25 4.15 - odds lurching round like a drunken sailor.

(Only the leave midpoint needs to be given in all honesty)

chestnut

FPT

MikeL said:

2015 GE electorate = 46.4m

2015 GE Votes Cast = 30.7m

Postal votes issued = 7.6m

Postal votes cast = 0.858 * 7.6m = 6.5m

Postal votes cast = 6.5/30.7 = 21% of votes cast

Postal votes cast = 6.5/46.4 = 14% of electorate

No chance whatsoever that the proportion of postal votes has doubled between 2015 GE and EU Ref 2016.

The overall size of the electorate isn't especially pertinent; it's the proportion of those who actually vote that is.

Besides, the electorate itself was down nearly three million in December, and there are also two or three million ineligible EU citizens in the national electorate, mostly in London.

Adjusting for lower registration and barring by citizenship, it is conceivable that close to a quarter of the vote is already in.

Postal Vote by Region last May (nearest percentage point):

North East 35%
Yorkshire and Humber 24%
North West 23%
Wales 22%
Scotland 21%
East Mids 21%
South West 21%
South East 20%
East England 19%
London 18%
West Mids 17%
Northern Ireland 2%

Scott_P

Roger said:

That's the longest piece I've ever read by JK. It's very good

Maybe she should take up writing...

Jobabob

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jobabob said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

After such big swings the other way it makes sense - but personally I think the direction of travel overall remains clear.

Are you still going to vote Leave despite accepting the economic chaos it will visit on a generation?

I had hoped you would have seen sense by now.

Remind us which party you support again?

None of them. I'd spoil my ballot if there were a general election tomorrow.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/neiledwardlovat/status/744845821494059008

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

"Most of us" have got the direction of travel hopelessly wrong throughout this campaign...why should the endgame be any different?

It does seem that the Remain camp are investing everything in the hope that the Farage poster/death of Jo Fox has swung things. That the innate goodness of people will make people turn away from Leave in their millions because of a weird piece of fatal coincidence and linked to that, an unfortunate piece of timing from Farage's ego.

But really? It has just meant that people who were uncertain and were looking for facts have lost five days of opportunity to learn more.

kle4

Jebediah_Beane1 said:

Private polling is a possibility. Boris's damascene conversion to the plight of immigrants yesterday and Warsi's "defection" today suggest the actions of people who have seen data we haven't. Boris, especially, appears to see a need to attract people who may have been turned off by last week's events. Add in today's strengthening of the pound makes private polling data a real suspect here.

Jobabob said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

After such big swings the other way it makes sense - but personally I think the direction of travel overall remains clear.

Are you still going to vote Leave despite accepting the economic chaos it will visit on a generation?

I had hoped you would have seen sense by now.

I think there will be a lot of chaos regardless. It will be a hit, if not as much as Remainers fear, but still a big hit. I'm even more worried given it looks like out politics is effed as well, but it would be hypocritical of me to vote Remain when fundamentally I don't like where the EU is heading and don't believe it will change. It is not capable of genuinely changing.

Taking a longer term view, better to take some hits now than we suffer more later and at the same time upset the EU in doing what it wants to do.

The options are not very palatable, but disruption, chaos and pain will come anyway - the fact 50% give or take a few want to leave, and the reasons behind that, will not go away. Staying in won't fix that, ergo there will be continued pain.

It's not easy for me. But that's why I have tried to look at it more abstractly.

But hold out hope - there's still time for me to waver further!

Richard_Tyndall

Roger said:

Scott_P said:

Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!

http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum

That's the longest piece I've ever read by JK. It's very good

She should try telling that to the Mexicans getting rid of the Spanish or the Americans getting rid of the British. I am sure they would agree that life would be so much better if they were still ruled by a distant unelected elite.

Pulpstar

4.05

GIN1138

It looks like the betting markets think the referendum is all over.

madasafish

Scott_P said:

Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!

http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum

It's all rather 1930s.
Big economic crash.
Weak economic growth.
Rise of anti establishment parties..

Usually ends in tears..

TheScreamingEagles

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

First like Remain. I hope

It's the hope that hurts.

On both sides.

It'll be fine, whatever the result, on Friday morning I shall still be an Englishman and a citizen of Le Royaume-Uni, that's all I need in life.

PlatoSaid

All those gravy train passengers are getting nervous

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/gloomy-leaders-fear-brexit-domino-effect-could-mean-end-of-the-eu-kbxr5dt8l

MarqueeMark

Roger said:

Scott_P said:

Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!

http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum

That's the longest piece I've ever read by JK. It's very good

Typical. She is taking no responsibility for having created the Dementers and the Death-Eaters in the first place...

SandyRentool

Scott_P said:

Roger said:

That's the longest piece I've ever read by JK. It's very good

Maybe she should take up writing...

Perhaps she could offer a thread header to PB?

Pulpstar

Did we just see Peak Remain in the betting markets ?

Roger

Baroness Warsi's leading the 1.00 pm News. If only she could have reached these heights when she was alive

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Baroness Warsi's leading the 1.00 pm News. If only she could have reached these heights when she was alive

LOL

Casino_Royale

madasafish said:

Scott_P said:

Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!

http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum

It's all rather 1930s.
Big economic crash.
Weak economic growth.
Rise of anti establishment parties..

Usually ends in tears..

Articles like JK Rowling's demonstrate to me that Remainers will learn nothing and forget nothing from this referendum result, if they win.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

First like Remain. I hope

It's the hope that hurts.

On both sides.

It'll be fine, whatever the result, on Friday morning I shall still be an Englishman and a citizen of Le Royaume-Uni, that's all I need in life.

You will still hold a winning lottery ticket in life. Just the Lotto if it is Remain, when it could have been Euromillions!

Big_G_NorthWales

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

Roger said:

That's the longest piece I've ever read by JK. It's very good

Maybe she should take up writing...

@GeneralBoles:

'People in this country have had enough of experts' - Michael Gove (co-founder of Policy Exchange)

KentRising

madasafish said:

Scott_P said:

Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!

http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum

It's all rather 1930s.
Big economic crash.
Weak economic growth.
Rise of anti establishment parties..

Usually ends in tears..

Nationalism isn't the problem. Nationalism means putting your own country's priorities before another's.

Imperialism is the problem, is what started two world wars. I don't see much of that across Europe, apart from in the far east of it, where Russia wants bits of the old SU back.

Big_G_NorthWales

GIN1138 said:

It looks like the betting markets think the referendum is all over.

Assume they are not going to pay out yet

Casino_Royale

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

First like Remain. I hope

It's the hope that hurts.

On both sides.

It'll be fine, whatever the result, on Friday morning I shall still be an Englishman and a citizen of Le Royaume-Uni, that's all I need in life.

No you won't. You will have sold your country out like a common Frenchman.

TheScreamingEagles

You know the EURef is still too close to call.

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have yet to do an early payout.

MarqueeMark

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.

It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....

CarlottaVance

Curious....Roy Greenslade has spotted that The Times amended their Warsi headline before finally going to press:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/jun/20/why-did-the-times-change-its-mind-over-a-brexit-headline

Casino_Royale

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.

It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....

Nothing we can do about it mate.

I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.

Luckyguy1983

Scott_P said:

Roger said:

That's the longest piece I've ever read by JK. It's very good

Maybe she should take up writing...

That would make a change.

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

Curious....Roy Greenslade has spotted that The Times amended their Warsi headline before finally going to press:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/jun/20/why-did-the-times-change-its-mind-over-a-brexit-headline

Surely the headline should have been "Brexit united in going "Huh? Who?"

MarkHopkins

So Warsi, who didn't campaign for Leave, is switching sides to not campaign for Remain?

PlatoSaid

KentRising said:

madasafish said:

Scott_P said:

Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!

http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum

It's all rather 1930s.
Big economic crash.
Weak economic growth.
Rise of anti establishment parties..

Usually ends in tears..

Nationalism isn't the problem. Nationalism means putting your own country's priorities over another's.

Imperialism is the problem, is what started two world wars. I don't see much of that across Europe, apart from in the far east of it, where Russia wants bits of the old SU back.

Some ages ago described the Eurocrats as "imperialists who lack self-confidence".

I thought it was spot on and very perceptive. Same desires - but use rules and regs to squash other nations instead.

TheScreamingEagles

Donald Tusk has just tweeted

Whatever the UK vote is, we must take long hard look on the future of the Union. Would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal

RochdalePioneers

I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.

But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.

We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.

HYUFD

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.

It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....

Farage of course would probably secretly prefer a very narrow Remain win, ideally dependent on Scotland, than an actual Leave win as a narrow Remain win ensures he becomes even more the centre of attention and UKIP leads the resistance!

PlatoSaid

CarlottaVance said:

Curious....Roy Greenslade has spotted that The Times amended their Warsi headline before finally going to press:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/jun/20/why-did-the-times-change-its-mind-over-a-brexit-headline

Curious? We were all over it on here by 10pm last night. Even Sky paper review noted it.

Big_G_NorthWales

MarkHopkins said:

So Warsi, who didn't campaign for Leave, is switching sides to not campaign for Remain?

She is campaigning to remain and explains her change on Sky news at 1.00

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Donald Tusk has just tweeted

Whatever the UK vote is, we must take long hard look on the future of the Union. Would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal

So let's send him - and the whole EU - a message that really CAN'T be ignored.

It's your duty - your duty to your fellow Europeans. They need help. Only we can give them that help, in their hour of need.

As bloody usual...

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Donald Tusk has just tweeted

Whatever the UK vote is, we must take long hard look on the future of the Union. Would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal

They will any way

john_zims

@PlatoSaid

'Jean Asselborn, Luxembourg’s foreign minister, yesterday described David Cameron’s decision to hold an in/out referendum as a “historic mistake” that could tear apart the EU.'


Amazing how much they hate democracy..

PlatoSaid

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Donald Tusk has just tweeted

Whatever the UK vote is, we must take long hard look on the future of the Union. Would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal

So let's send him - and the whole EU - a message that really CAN'T be ignored.

It's your duty - your duty to your fellow Europeans. They need help. Only we can give them that help, in their hour of need.

As bloody usual...

"Whatever the UK vote is, we must take long hard look on the future of the Union. Would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal"

Yes, by making it virtually impossible for another member state to hold a referendum on exit again.

Big_G_NorthWales

RochdalePioneers said:

I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.

But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.

We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.

I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know

PlatoSaid

john_zims said:

@PlatoSaid

'Jean Asselborn, Luxembourg’s foreign minister, yesterday described David Cameron’s decision to hold an in/out referendum as a “historic mistake” that could tear apart the EU.'


Amazing how much they hate democracy..

There are some great quotes in that article.

MP_SE

The poster unveiled by Farage was incredibly idiotic. I know many accuse politicians in the Remain camp of not "getting it". However, I think Farage equally doesn't "get it".

UKIP could have gone with a poster showing Greeks rioting in Greece or French farmers rioting in France. It would still make the point of the EU not working without being so repellant.

FF43

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Can't see what would drive that. The mood, despite the histrionics, does not seem that different - the only massive movement was last week to leave, and other than that it's just ebbs and flows. That being the case, and in my view Leave being stronger in support where it will count (ie older people), should see them win. I should get more money on this.

YouGov saying the fundamentals were moving back to Remain even before Thursday's events might explain it.

Most of us were existing a swing back to Remain.

"Most of us" have got the direction of travel hopelessly wrong throughout this campaign...why should the endgame be any different?

It does seem that the Remain camp are investing everything in the hope that the Farage poster/death of Jo Fox has swung things. That the innate goodness of people will make people turn away from Leave in their millions because of a weird piece of fatal coincidence and linked to that, an unfortunate piece of timing from Farage's ego.

But really? It has just meant that people who were uncertain and were looking for facts have lost five days of opportunity to learn more.

Funnily enough I think this turned onto a referendum that was Leave's to lose. If they do lose it, I think it will mainly be because of three intertwined reasons:

1. They don't believe Leave on immigration. Cameron has been caught out with his never could be achieved pledge to reduce immigration. Michael Gove repeats the claim for Leave. Why should we believe you just because the other side lied about the same thing?

2. Leave leadership don't have a plan. EEA? FTA? WTO? Immigrants can stay? More non-EU immigrants?

3. Cameron and Osborne are dreary prospects, but Johnson, Gove and maybe Farage inspire no confidence at all. This referendum is fundamentally an internal Tory fight. For the rest of the political spectrum you are substituting the intolerable for the just about tolerable.

Alanbrooke

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.

But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.

We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.

I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know

Oh don't be daft, the multinats have all been lined up to release statements. Ford's is perhaps the most stupid Ive seen.

This is simply coreographed by Remain.

And later they'll call in the favour.

KentRising

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.

It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....

Nothing we can do about it mate.

I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.

I think Leave's lead evaporated last Thursday. With inevitable swingback in the hours leading up to vote, it might even be 65/35 Remain in the end. Just gut feel. As a result, all this Farage/Warsi stuff is inconsequential in my mind. Gallows humour's already kicked in. It's a great shame, but alas the referendum's probably come 2-3 years too early.

chestnut

The Tories can't win.

logical_song

FTSE now up 195 points, 3.23%!
Why so much confidence in Remain all of a sudden?

MarkHopkins

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.

But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.

We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.

I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin

Scott_P

@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes: 95% of money staked today has been for REMAIN #EUref https://t.co/lkiIg0en5G

Pulpstar

KentRising said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.

It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....

Nothing we can do about it mate.

I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.

I think Leave's lead evaporated last Thursday. With inevitable swingback in the hours leading up to vote, it might even be 65/35 Remain in the end. Just gut feel. As a result, all this Farage/Warsi stuff is inconsequential in my mind. Gallows humour's already kicked in. It's a great shame, but alas the referendum's probably come 2-3 years too early.

65 - 35 ?! Doubt it.

tyson

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

Listen Casino- the nature of the beast. Farage had to one big, blundering gaffe. It's a pity for leave it was just as they were gathering momentum, and on the day of the Jo Cox tragedy. But it was a beautiful gaffe, you have to credit him for that.

Just as leave stood on the cusp of shaking up Europe, in stepped Nigel.

I would say I'm laughing all the way to the bank, but I'm not since I'm on the losing market on betfair. Oh well, I'm just laughing.

chestnut

I've just received a leaflet telling me my neighbours will be voting Remain.

I'd be surprised if they are voting for anyone as they are Bulgarian.

HYUFD

KentRising said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.

It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....

Nothing we can do about it mate.

I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.

I think Leave's lead evaporated last Thursday. With inevitable swingback in the hours leading up to vote, it might even be 65/35 Remain in the end. Just gut feel. As a result, all this Farage/Warsi stuff is inconsequential in my mind. Gallows humour's already kicked in. It's a great shame, but alas the referendum's probably come 2-3 years too early.

I can't see Remain winning much more than 52% 48%. The committed Leavers are at least 40%+

Big_G_NorthWales

Alanbrooke said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.

But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.

We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.

I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know

Oh don't be daft, the multinats have all been lined up to release statements. Ford's is perhaps the most stupid Ive seen.

This is simply coreographed by Remain.

And later they'll call in the favour.

Why daft - and why blame remain - leave use Bamford and Dyson for their case. Remember David Cameron plays to win and that is why you have a referendum in the first place

CarlottaVance

Last EURef Ashcroft focus group:

“My mum always said if you don’t know what to do, don’t do anything. I’ve lived by that.” How did you vote at the general election? “Liberal Democrat.”

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-my-final-eu-referendum-focus-groups-i-cant-make-my-mind-up-its-a-lot-of-responsibility-and-i-really-want-to-get-it-right.html

NoEasyDay

Stock market is also up around 3.5 % so something is in the air.

peter_from_putney

It's not entirely one way traffic on Betfair. After LEAVE eased out to 4.9 around 11.30a.m., it has since come back in to 4.1, suggesting there's at least some element of herding involved in the betting markets Baaa ..... Baaa!

john_zims

@TheScreamingEagles

'Donald Tusk has just tweeted

Whatever the UK vote is, we must take long hard look on the future of the Union. Would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal'


Yeah ,yeah how many times and years have we heard that one before ?

Remember the long hard look after Holland & France rejected the constitution,that went well.

FeersumEnjineeya

MarkHopkins said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.

But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.

We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.

I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin

Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.

PlatoSaid

chestnut said:

The Tories can't win.

I'm trying incredibly hard to be sanguine. A good poll for Leave or Remain naturally lifts or dents my moods a bit - but given how many pollsters have fiddled about with their methodologies, I'm not taking any to heart.

Whatever the result, I'll remain amazed at how tight it's all been. I didn't think we had a scooby. Now we're a contender.

Big_G_NorthWales

And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !!

taffys

''I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know ''

Yes but Mr G. a few months ago you claimed Obama's 'back of the queue' comments were a knockout blow for Remain.

They were actually a boost for Leave, and Obama has now been rebuked by Congress for his comments, which it turns out were an empty and untrue threat.

On that occasion you really could not have been more wrong in your instincts. You have to admit, your track record is not good.

chestnut

KentRising said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment

I am furious with Farage.

There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.

It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....

Nothing we can do about it mate.

I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.

I think Leave's lead evaporated last Thursday. With inevitable swingback in the hours leading up to vote, it might even be 65/35 Remain in the end. Just gut feel. As a result, all this Farage/Warsi stuff is inconsequential in my mind. Gallows humour's already kicked in. It's a great shame, but alas the referendum's probably come 2-3 years too early.

The polling industry would be dead if it were 65-35.

Those type of numbers are nowhere to be seen. They are not in the headlines, the 10/10s, the the follow-ups. Nowhere.

I know they have their failings, but the pollsters aren't that bad.

MarkHopkins

FeersumEnjineeya said:

MarkHopkins said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.

But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.

We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.

I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin

Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.

Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.

Duderooster

I am surprised no one is bringing up the fact that Brexit could initiate a catastrophic destabilization within Europe, encouraging other countries to pander to their 'Nationalistic characteristics'. I should imagine Putin, ISIS and other bodies are delighted to see this country pulling the region apart to their benefit. Putin's cohorts are attempting to disrupt the Euros - how satisfying it must be for them to witness the UK attempting to do the same to Europe on their behalf. If I lived in the Baltic States or Eastern Europe I would be most concerned.
Incidentally, despite the French being part of the Eurozone for many years, who would deny that the French are still adamantly French - and all the better for it. No-one loses their National identity, but now is the time to look at security amongst friends rather than attempting to carve out an isolated future in a fragmenting world.