It will be either one way or another. Either a Remain supporter will win and make clear the matter is closed, or a true believing Eurosceptic will and another referendum will be in the 2020 manifesto. What would be interesting is which way someone like Boris goes. I think he will ride the Eurosceptic path to power and then abandon them once in office, as Cameron did.
Or May who will try and keep the fence post up her ar*e, hoping to be all things to all people, and result in managing to piss off everyone.
A lot of people are putting out the idea that if we vote to remain the "Eurocrats" will take it as a green light to force us into new integration projects. Aside from the fact that much the same thing was said in Scotland (baselessly as it turned out) this simply doesn't make any sense given the way EU decisions are made. Nobody can force the UK to take part in new integration projects it opposes - all of these decisions require unanimity (i.e. we have a veto).
This kind of view of how the EU actually works, which I blame personally on politicians refusing to discuss the subject openly for decades, is one of the underlying factors that makes people so angry about the EU in the first place. If I thought the EU worked the way the average leave campaigner does (as a kind of corrupt dictatorship of bureaucrats) then I'd be furious as well, but it simply isn't reality.
Sorry but this is just unrealistic. The Eurozone is in deep trouble and needs political union to survive long term. The fact that this is also the basic aim of the European Union is just a matter of convenience. For this to work they need to make full use of all the institutions of the EU - something we have tried to block in the past but have now effectively ceded control of.
It is true that we cannot be forced into the Euro. But we can do nothing to prevent the Eurozone from dominating the EU and running it according to their needs. We are going to see far more rapid movement towards more rather than less EU over the next few years and when we do eventually find we can no longer stand it, leaving will be far more painful than it would otherwise have been.
Richard hi glad you're on.
Thanks for your link the other day.
Now...
I have read the annex you referred me to and for all the world it looks as though it states that non-members of the banking union ("at least one member of the Council that does not participate in the banking union") who object to the special treatment that the UK is getting from the deal (Section A = Economic Governance, namely eurozone discrimination and banking union), shall not have a veto ("cannot result in a situation which would amount to allowing a Member State a veto").
In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved.
Not the other way round.
ie nothing I can see in that Annex contradicts the opt outs and protections achieved in the deal.
This infographic is doing the rounds from Matt Smith, based on YouGov. Seems if we have turnout in 60-70% then Remain need to be 5+ ahead.
Really. Why were people so concerned Leave needed a clear lead of 4-5 in order to be sure of winning then? If that's right, Leave will get home easily.
That factors differential turnout, but it does not factor in other things, for example, last minute switching which will favour Remain; or DK breakers (probably also assisting Remain).
If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.
Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?
We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.
From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.
Could be a Bismark..
The big change (only one) I've detected since last week is previously unenthusiastic/soft Remainers suddenly firming up and going full-on on social media, and sticking up Remain posters in their windows.
At the same time, I have scaled back due to the amount of heat and flak I was getting. And so have other Leavers.
Don't go quieter. When people don't hear the other argument they will go for what everyone else is saying.
Don't mean to be harsh but exactly how much can Casino have been doing? He seems to spend every waking moment posting on here.
I'm just waiting for you to show up, hun.
Can't match you for obsession that's for sure, 50 posts a day, same old, same old, , what are you going to do after Thursday?
The main thing I've learned from this campaign is that Louise mensch is not someone to follow on Twitter. Not ground breaking I admit but there you go.
She's a nightmare. Constantly fills up your Twitter feed by her incessant tweeting and retweeting. I no longer follow her. Mrs Mensch is it is fair to say is clearly under employed,
I think I'm getting to be a big old softy in my old (late 20s) age. I remember being entirely unmoved and baffled by Diana, and have railed against the loss of a bit of stiff upper lip reserve in general in society. But while I do still believe that, I find I get a little more irritated at the automatic push back at those who are soppy about such things than peopel getting soppy themselves.
Oh, I still feel it gets overblown on so many situations, but I feel we can sometimes get into a kind of contest to see who wants to show they give less of a shit, or mock those who get perhaps overly emotional about it for too long.
I can cry over pet food ads. I can't get upset over the tragic deaths of people I've never heard of. I can feel sorry for their friends and family.
Top mail comment on the article about this afternoon in HoC
'Sad about her death but hope this will now happen for any service personnel who dies in the service of our country
This will be controversial, but I disagree with the commenters on the Mail. Like most people I will put soldiers ahead of MPs every time, but the reason for the extravagant displays is precisely because the event is rare and therefore significant, unheard of in decades, a whole generation of MPs and voters never contemplating it would happen. Soldiers, in their heroism, face the prospect of death in service much more obviously and it happens a lot more, it is no denigration to them that this rare event is receiving a lot of focus.
Also I bet the same commenters would like a comment criticising the frequent paying tribute to dead soldiers by the PM and LOTO and other leaders at PMQs as pointless posturing.
I am not sure how betfair works but presumably for odss to shift so much money has been changing hands. Would it be possible that the massive shift in one direction was capped by people profit taking leading to the odds shifting back again?
In other words, have some people lost money this morning?
If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.
Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?
We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.
From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.
Could be a Bismark..
The big change (only one) I've detected since last week is previously unenthusiastic/soft Remainers suddenly firming up and going full-on on social media, and sticking up Remain posters in their windows.
At the same time, I have scaled back due to the amount of heat and flak I was getting. And so have other Leavers.
Don't go quieter. When people don't hear the other argument they will go for what everyone else is saying.
Don't mean to be harsh but exactly how much can Casino have been doing? He seems to spend every waking moment posting on here.
I'm just waiting for you to show up, hun.
Can't match you for obsession that's for sure, 50 posts a day, same old, same old, , what are you going to do after Thursday?
I think I'm getting to be a big old softy in my old (late 20s) age. I remember being entirely unmoved and baffled by Diana, and have railed against the loss of a bit of stiff upper lip reserve in general in society. But while I do still believe that, I find I get a little more irritated at the automatic push back at those who are soppy about such things than peopel getting soppy themselves.
Oh, I still feel it gets overblown on so many situations, but I feel we can sometimes get into a kind of contest to see who wants to show they give less of a shit, or mock those who get perhaps overly emotional about it for too long.
I can cry over pet food ads. I can't get upset over the tragic deaths of people I've never heard of. I can feel sorry for their friends and family.
Nothing wrong with that, I'm the same. But I find I'm more forgiving now of those who do, even when it gets into the virtue signalling competition face, as reverse signalling seems to cancel it out, as people compete to show contempt for those do get all mushy, even garishly mushy. I've cried more over the death of fictional characters than some real people, each to their own.
So, I reckon we'll now get a whole bunch of better than expected Leave numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday morning... which'll swing the odds back towards 50:50.
Late Wednesday and early Thursday, will see the polls swing once more towards Remain, averaging a four point lead. Enough! We'll say, Remain has gotten this.
Then at 11pm, just an hour after polls close, the Sunderland result will come in. 62% for Leave! Hartlepool and Newcastle follow. Good good, these are great numbers for Leave. Betfair now shows an 85% chance for Leave and growing. Southam says "I told you so".
And then London and Scotland start rolling in in the early hours. Turnout is staggering, and so are the Remain vote shares. The early lead taken by Leave begins to be rolled in. Betfair's price starts surging the other way. By 5am, it's 50:50 in terms of votes cast, with just six council areas to declare.
If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.
Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?
We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.
From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.
Could be a Bismark..
The big change (only one) I've detected since last week is previously unenthusiastic/soft Remainers suddenly firming up and going full-on on social media, and sticking up Remain posters in their windows.
At the same time, I have scaled back due to the amount of heat and flak I was getting. And so have other Leavers.
Don't go quieter. When people don't hear the other argument they will go for what everyone else is saying.
Don't mean to be harsh but exactly how much can Casino have been doing? He seems to spend every waking moment posting on here.
I'm just waiting for you to show up, hun.
Can't match you for obsession that's for sure, 50 posts a day, same old, same old, , what are you going to do after Thursday?
An interesting case has been published by the judicial committee of the Privy Council. It relates to a Scottish baronetcy so JackW might be interested.
It has decided that DNA testing can be used historically to determine who is entitled to a baronetcy. In the case itself whether the first born son in wedlock (in 1903) was actually the blood son of the then baronet, and hence a couple of generations later who should succeed.
This opens up a potential can of worms, can you be certain that your 19th century ancestor was legitimate?
So, I reckon we'll now get a whole bunch of better than expected Leave numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday morning... which'll swing the odds back towards 50:50.
Late Wednesday and early Thursday, will see the polls swing once more towards Remain, averaging a four point lead. Enough! We'll say, Remain has gotten this.
Then at 11pm, just an hour after polls close, the Sunderland result will come in. 62% for Leave! Hartlepool and Newcastle follow. Good good, these are great numbers for Leave. Betfair now shows an 85% chance for Leave and growing. Southam says "I told you so".
And then London and Scotland start rolling in in the early hours. Turnout is staggering, and so are the Remain vote shares. The early lead taken by Leave begins to be rolled in. Betfair's price starts surging the other way. By 5am, it's 50:50 in terms of votes cast, with just six council areas to declare.
If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.
Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?
We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.
From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.
Could be a Bismark..
The big change (only one) I've detected since last week is previously unenthusiastic/soft Remainers suddenly firming up and going full-on on social media, and sticking up Remain posters in their windows.
At the same time, I have scaled back due to the amount of heat and flak I was getting. And so have other Leavers.
Don't go quieter. When people don't hear the other argument they will go for what everyone else is saying.
Don't mean to be harsh but exactly how much can Casino have been doing? He seems to spend every waking moment posting on here.
I'm just waiting for you to show up, hun.
Can't match you for obsession that's for sure, 50 posts a day, same old, same old, , what are you going to do after Thursday?
Can I come round yours?
Please do, we can crack open a bottle and toast our future life as part of the EU
An interesting case has been published by the judicial committee of the Privy Council. It relates to a Scottish baronetcy so JackW might be interested.
It has decided that DNA testing can be used historically to determine who is entitled to a baronetcy. In the case itself whether the first born son in wedlock (in 1903) was actually the blood son of the then baronet, and hence a couple of generations later who should succeed.
This opens up a potential can of worms, can you be certain that your 19th century ancestor was legitimate?
This infographic is doing the rounds from Matt Smith, based on YouGov. Seems if we have turnout in 60-70% then Remain need to be 5+ ahead.
Really. Why were people so concerned Leave needed a clear lead of 4-5 in order to be sure of winning then? If that's right, Leave will get home easily.
That factors differential turnout, but it does not factor in other things, for example, last minute switching which will favour Remain; or DK breakers (probably also assisting Remain).
That actually gives me comfort. Maybe Leave can win after all. Let's GOTV.
So, I reckon we'll now get a whole bunch of better than expected Leave numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday morning... which'll swing the odds back towards 50:50.
Late Wednesday and early Thursday, will see the polls swing once more towards Remain, averaging a four point lead. Enough! We'll say, Remain has gotten this.
Then at 11pm, just an hour after polls close, the Sunderland result will come in. 62% for Leave! Hartlepool and Newcastle follow. Good good, these are great numbers for Leave. Betfair now shows an 85% chance for Leave and growing. Southam says "I told you so".
And then London and Scotland start rolling in in the early hours. Turnout is staggering, and so are the Remain vote shares. The early lead taken by Leave begins to be rolled in. Betfair's price starts surging the other way. By 5am, it's 50:50 in terms of votes cast, with just six council areas to declare.
Which way will they go?
Ar you planning on writing a thriller or just hoping to stir up some interest on pb. I hope you have sufficient bandwidth for Thursday by the way. Why are you expecting the polls to go back to leave? I just don't believe many people are going to change their minds when it's obviously so close. Most people don't look at detailed polls. What they see is that it is neck and neck.
From another Forum: (Not my post, but an insightful one I think)
"OK ... accepting I may end up with egg on my face in a few days time ....
My belief is the mainstream polls are wrong to be showing essentially a 50:50 split, I think the polling organisations are making major errors of judgement in the social cohesion of voters (aka the populus indices that samford71 referenced www.populus.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-index-whos-remain-leave-supporters/ ). This article in the Telegraph (link) explains a bit more about the potential risks of assuming social cohesion.
Self selection polls, such as the one I have referenced in this thread, and those run by almost every newspaper website are showing 70% plus leave. Such polls are known to be unreliable, but I'm struggling to remember a case when they were so fundamentally adrift from public opinion. I'm hypothesising that those responding to such online polls are the better educated or more intelligent (in the sense of questioning the world around us) in society. The less educated / less intelligent that are motivated by the political process enough to vote are in this case (I'd suggest) more likely to vote leave than remain. However the poll I have referenced is limited to UK residents only so will miss the huge remain majority in Gibraltar and the expat communities.
London is assumed to be heavily pro remain. Where I am its very hard to tell, there are no posters / banners etc out for either side as such are banned under local bylaws (its very difficult even to put for sale signs up here). However there is some evidence in a neighbouring borough the remain majority isn't going to be huge. I've seen no effort at canvassing in my immediate area, despite the fact that remain should be targeting this area.
Its generally accepted that leave supporters will be more highly motivated to actually get out and vote than remain supporters.
A couple of days ago I read an article about how to interpret the early result declarations. One will be Sunderland (as usual) and it was suggested a leave vote there of 55-57% would imply a national breakeven, and the other (excluding the City which will be huge remain) will be Wandsworth in south London where a remain majority of 60-66% will also imply a national breakeven.
So after all that waffle (and an admission I've not looked at todays headlines yet) I'm expecting a vote for leave."
Top mail comment on the article about this afternoon in HoC
'Sad about her death but hope this will now happen for any service personnel who dies in the service of our country
This will be controversial, but I disagree with the commenters on the Mail. Like most people I will put soldiers ahead of MPs every time, but the reason for the extravagant displays is precisely because the event is rare and therefore significant, unheard of in decades, a whole generation of MPs and voters never contemplating it would happen. Soldiers, in their heroism, face the prospect of death in service much more obviously and it happens a lot more, it is no denigration to them that this rare event is receiving a lot of focus.
Also I bet the same commenters would like a comment criticising the frequent paying tribute to dead soldiers by the PM and LOTO and other leaders at PMQs as pointless posturing.
A handful of bookies are now quoting LEAVE at 3.75 ...... that's quite a way in from 4.75 before lunch. Sounds like there's a lot of guesswork going on.
An interesting case has been published by the judicial committee of the Privy Council. It relates to a Scottish baronetcy so JackW might be interested.
It has decided that DNA testing can be used historically to determine who is entitled to a baronetcy. In the case itself whether the first born son in wedlock (in 1903) was actually the blood son of the then baronet, and hence a couple of generations later who should succeed.
This opens up a potential can of worms, can you be certain that your 19th century ancestor was legitimate?
I trust they'll grant an exemption for royalty - I suspect in the course of 1500 years even the twisty connections that we think are there may not be genuine.
An interesting case has been published by the judicial committee of the Privy Council. It relates to a Scottish baronetcy so JackW might be interested.
It has decided that DNA testing can be used historically to determine who is entitled to a baronetcy. In the case itself whether the first born son in wedlock (in 1903) was actually the blood son of the then baronet, and hence a couple of generations later who should succeed.
This opens up a potential can of worms, can you be certain that your 19th century ancestor was legitimate?
A handful of bookies are now quoting LEAVE at 3.75 ...... that's quite a way in from 4.75 before lunch. Sounds like there's a lot of guesswork going on.
We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.
Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.
As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.
And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.
I think people really exaggerate shy electors effect. Why would you lie to someone phoning from a polling company. I mean what are they gonna do to you. Nothing.
Top mail comment on the article about this afternoon in HoC
'Sad about her death but hope this will now happen for any service personnel who dies in the service of our country
Deaths of forces personnel, maybe even police officers and other emergency service staff can sort of be factored in to the job description, so I don't think that comparison stands. I do agree that it is a bit over the top for my liking, Mrs Cox was by all accounts a thoroughly decent person, and a daughter, wife and mother to be proud of. I'm not sure that this afternoon in the HoC was really neccessary, though. It just highlights to me just how rarefied the air is in Westminster.
An interesting case has been published by the judicial committee of the Privy Council. It relates to a Scottish baronetcy so JackW might be interested.
It has decided that DNA testing can be used historically to determine who is entitled to a baronetcy. In the case itself whether the first born son in wedlock (in 1903) was actually the blood son of the then baronet, and hence a couple of generations later who should succeed.
This opens up a potential can of worms, can you be certain that your 19th century ancestor was legitimate?
I trust they'll grant an exemption for royalty - I suspect in the course of 1500 years even the twisty connections that we think are there may not be genuine.
I think they are more secure than that, since the basis of succession is the Act of Settlement.
From another Forum: (Not my post, but an insightful one I think)
"OK ... accepting I may end up with egg on my face in a few days time ....
My belief is the mainstream polls are wrong to be showing essentially a 50:50 split, I think the polling organisations are making major errors of judgement in the social cohesion of voters (aka the populus indices that samford71 referenced www.populus.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-index-whos-remain-leave-supporters/ ). This article in the Telegraph (link) explains a bit more about the potential risks of assuming social cohesion.
Self selection polls, such as the one I have referenced in this thread, and those run by almost every newspaper website are showing 70% plus leave. Such polls are known to be unreliable, but I'm struggling to remember a case when they were so fundamentally adrift from public opinion. I'm hypothesising that those responding to such online polls are the better educated or more intelligent (in the sense of questioning the world around us) in society. The less educated / less intelligent that are motivated by the political process enough to vote are in this case (I'd suggest) more likely to vote leave than remain. However the poll I have referenced is limited to UK residents only so will miss the huge remain majority in Gibraltar and the expat communities.
London is assumed to be heavily pro remain. Where I am its very hard to tell, there are no posters / banners etc out for either side as such are banned under local bylaws (its very difficult even to put for sale signs up here). However there is some evidence in a neighbouring borough the remain majority isn't going to be huge. I've seen no effort at canvassing in my immediate area, despite the fact that remain should be targeting this area.
Its generally accepted that leave supporters will be more highly motivated to actually get out and vote than remain supporters.
A couple of days ago I read an article about how to interpret the early result declarations. One will be Sunderland (as usual) and it was suggested a leave vote there of 55-57% would imply a national breakeven, and the other (excluding the City which will be huge remain) will be Wandsworth in south London where a remain majority of 60-66% will also imply a national breakeven.
So after all that waffle (and an admission I've not looked at todays headlines yet) I'm expecting a vote for leave."
"Self selection polls, such as the one I have referenced in this thread, and those run by almost every newspaper website are showing 70% plus leave. Such polls are known to be unreliable, but I'm struggling to remember a case when they were so fundamentally adrift from public opinion. "
Erm literally every time. I'm yet to ever see a Voodoo poll with a 50/50 split that hasn't been conducted by BBC Sport.
If Remain really is neck and neck or perhaps 1 or 2 ahead, then under the model turn out needs to late 70s - 80s.
According to the most recent YouGov, 10 out of 10 certain to vote is 73%, 5 out of 10 or more is 90%. I don't believe turnout will be as high as 73% let alone into the high 70s or 80s.
The question is who will differential turnout help? Many DEs not voting will help remain, however many young people under 30 not voting will help leave.
Also now is the time to track the weather forecasts, according to Google, typing in 'London Weather' the weather on Thursday between 0700-2100 is THUNDERSTORMS. Perfect weather for a lower turnout, in a particularly densely populating Remain stronghold, this is good for leave. Reasonably fair weather across, Northern England, Midlands, South-West and South Wales, this could help leave.
I think I'm getting to be a big old softy in my old (late 20s) age. I remember being entirely unmoved and baffled by Diana, and have railed against the loss of a bit of stiff upper lip reserve in general in society. But while I do still believe that, I find I get a little more irritated at the automatic push back at those who are soppy about such things than peopel getting soppy themselves.
Oh, I still feel it gets overblown on so many situations, but I feel we can sometimes get into a kind of contest to see who wants to show they give less of a shit, or mock those who get perhaps overly emotional about it for too long.
I can cry over pet food ads. I can't get upset over the tragic deaths of people I've never heard of. I can feel sorry for their friends and family.
Nothing wrong with that, I'm the same. But I find I'm more forgiving now of those who do, even when it gets into the virtue signalling competition face, as reverse signalling seems to cancel it out, as people compete to show contempt for those do get all mushy, even garishly mushy. I've cried more over the death of fictional characters than some real people, each to their own.
The thing that bites is that she was a mother to two very young children. Children that age need their mothers more than anything. Given the vast majority of people can empathise with the mother-child relationship I think that's what makes it extra shocking and so very sad.
The fact a representative of the people got gunned and knifed and murdered in a quiet, ordinary British village in broad daylight would've been shocking enough. But the mother thing... it's awful.
My children and six and three. I can't imagine how the Dad found a way of explaining it to them.
I want Remain to win - but by a tiny margin of a couple of thousand votes. A country split right down the middle. We'd stay in, for now, until the PM whether it's this one or the next, negotiates a better deal. In the meantime no Eurocrat could plausibly argue that Brits had clearly voted for more of the same.
Where that desire leaves my vote on Thursday I'm still not 100%. But as I instinctively want to stay in a better EU, and I'm scared of the risks of Leave, I think I have to vote Remain, on principle.
If that's your position, you should consider close examination of the final polls.
If they show a very clear Remain win, you may wish to tactically vote Leave.
I am sorry Bob but this simply will not happen. It is arrogant of the British to believe that after any sort of vote to Remain the EU will either want or be able to change its course or allow us to change our relationship. If we decide to set sail on the Titanic we will be stuck on board until she hits the iceberg.
Fine. Providing we're prepared for the iceberg and are sitting in the lifeboat when she hits!
We had exactly this glee from remainers here and gloomy panic here after Obamas intervention, however the public are not stupid.
Leaving ethics aside to have any chance of getting votes out of this tragedy remainers have to be subtle otherwise you enrage and repel people.
As Guido and events in HoC show they have been as subtle as a brick.
And ignore the polls, if I get a telephone poll to day Im telling them remain. I dont want to risk the hassle at a time like this and who knows who is actually at the other end of the line.
I think people really exaggerate shy electors effect. Why would you lie to someone phoning from a polling company. I mean what are they gonna do to you. Nothing.
Big difference between do you wank? And how will you vote in referendum? Anyway only 3 days to go before we know.
Not if the question is received as the difference between "do you wank" and "are you a racist with far-right sympathies that is prepared to condone WW3 and economic collapse of his country"?
" I can't get upset over the tragic deaths of people I've never heard of. I can feel sorry for their friends and family."
Me neither, Miss P.. Perhaps it is my upbringing and work experience but I tend to think that there are about 600,000 deaths in the UK each year, each a tragedy for the family (though sometimes a relief as well). Of those there are about 50* unlawfully killings a month in England and Wales, everyone a tragedy for the families. I get about three emails a week telling me of people that worked for the same organisations that I did have shuffled off this mortal coil, and these days I go to a lot more funerals than weddings.
I cannot feel any emotion about the death of someone who I have never known, or even heard of. Why on earth should I?
That I should feel that I should change the way I would want this country to be governed because of a death of someone I had not previously heard of is an idea I find bizarre.
*the fifty a month is a figure I remember from my time at the Home Office and may not be currently accurate
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
I keep hearing this from people. Someone told me they'd voted Remain because they travel to Europe a lot (on holiday). She seemed to be labouring under the misapprehension that were the UK to leave the EU travel to the Continent from the UK would no longer be possible.
We're talking about the right to settle, not tourism. Most people understand the difference.
She evidently did not.
Unless she's on another forum right now saying something like 'I tried to make it simple for him but he just didn't understand what I was saying.'
Comments
Thanks for your link the other day.
Now...
I have read the annex you referred me to and for all the world it looks as though it states that non-members of the banking union ("at least one member of the Council that does not participate in the banking union") who object to the special treatment that the UK is getting from the deal (Section A = Economic Governance, namely eurozone discrimination and banking union), shall not have a veto ("cannot result in a situation which would amount to allowing a Member State a veto").
In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved.
Not the other way round.
ie nothing I can see in that Annex contradicts the opt outs and protections achieved in the deal.
I, of course, ANAL.
I was sure Raikkonen would pass (but still had over 80/1 for second place so wasn't too disappointed), but then began to hope the 250/1 might come in.
'twas a pleasant moment.
Also I bet the same commenters would like a comment criticising the frequent paying tribute to dead soldiers by the PM and LOTO and other leaders at PMQs as pointless posturing.
In other words, have some people lost money this morning?
Late Wednesday and early Thursday, will see the polls swing once more towards Remain, averaging a four point lead. Enough! We'll say, Remain has gotten this.
Then at 11pm, just an hour after polls close, the Sunderland result will come in. 62% for Leave! Hartlepool and Newcastle follow. Good good, these are great numbers for Leave. Betfair now shows an 85% chance for Leave and growing. Southam says "I told you so".
And then London and Scotland start rolling in in the early hours. Turnout is staggering, and so are the Remain vote shares. The early lead taken by Leave begins to be rolled in. Betfair's price starts surging the other way. By 5am, it's 50:50 in terms of votes cast, with just six council areas to declare.
Which way will they go?
It has decided that DNA testing can be used historically to determine who is entitled to a baronetcy. In the case itself whether the first born son in wedlock (in 1903) was actually the blood son of the then baronet, and hence a couple of generations later who should succeed.
This opens up a potential can of worms, can you be certain that your 19th century ancestor was legitimate?
https://www.jcpc.uk/cases/docs/jcpc-2015-0079-judgment.pdf
Quite what a hardened Corbynista makes of the minutiae of inheritance and hereditary titles is anyone's guess.
"OK ... accepting I may end up with egg on my face in a few days time ....
My belief is the mainstream polls are wrong to be showing essentially a 50:50 split, I think the polling organisations are making major errors of judgement in the social cohesion of voters (aka the populus indices that samford71 referenced www.populus.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-index-whos-remain-leave-supporters/ ). This article in the Telegraph (link) explains a bit more about the potential risks of assuming social cohesion.
Self selection polls, such as the one I have referenced in this thread, and those run by almost every newspaper website are showing 70% plus leave. Such polls are known to be unreliable, but I'm struggling to remember a case when they were so fundamentally adrift from public opinion. I'm hypothesising that those responding to such online polls are the better educated or more intelligent (in the sense of questioning the world around us) in society. The less educated / less intelligent that are motivated by the political process enough to vote are in this case (I'd suggest) more likely to vote leave than remain. However the poll I have referenced is limited to UK residents only so will miss the huge remain majority in Gibraltar and the expat communities.
London is assumed to be heavily pro remain. Where I am its very hard to tell, there are no posters / banners etc out for either side as such are banned under local bylaws (its very difficult even to put for sale signs up here). However there is some evidence in a neighbouring borough the remain majority isn't going to be huge. I've seen no effort at canvassing in my immediate area, despite the fact that remain should be targeting this area.
Its generally accepted that leave supporters will be more highly motivated to actually get out and vote than remain supporters.
A couple of days ago I read an article about how to interpret the early result declarations. One will be Sunderland (as usual) and it was suggested a leave vote there of 55-57% would imply a national breakeven, and the other (excluding the City which will be huge remain) will be Wandsworth in south London where a remain majority of 60-66% will also imply a national breakeven.
So after all that waffle (and an admission I've not looked at todays headlines yet) I'm expecting a vote for leave."
It's almost as though they are campaigning.
Erm literally every time. I'm yet to ever see a Voodoo poll with a 50/50 split that hasn't been conducted by BBC Sport.
The question is who will differential turnout help? Many DEs not voting will help remain, however many young people under 30 not voting will help leave.
Also now is the time to track the weather forecasts, according to Google, typing in 'London Weather' the weather on Thursday between 0700-2100 is THUNDERSTORMS. Perfect weather for a lower turnout, in a particularly densely populating Remain stronghold, this is good for leave. Reasonably fair weather across, Northern England, Midlands, South-West and South Wales, this could help leave.
I'm not letting those straws go yet!
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
The fact a representative of the people got gunned and knifed and murdered in a quiet, ordinary British village in broad daylight would've been shocking enough. But the mother thing... it's awful.
My children and six and three. I can't imagine how the Dad found a way of explaining it to them.
Fine. Providing we're prepared for the iceberg and are sitting in the lifeboat when she hits!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/lets-just-scrap-the-eu-referendum-and-let-the-bankers-decide-wha/
" I can't get upset over the tragic deaths of people I've never heard of. I can feel sorry for their friends and family."
Me neither, Miss P.. Perhaps it is my upbringing and work experience but I tend to think that there are about 600,000 deaths in the UK each year, each a tragedy for the family (though sometimes a relief as well). Of those there are about 50* unlawfully killings a month in England and Wales, everyone a tragedy for the families. I get about three emails a week telling me of people that worked for the same organisations that I did have shuffled off this mortal coil, and these days I go to a lot more funerals than weddings.
I cannot feel any emotion about the death of someone who I have never known, or even heard of. Why on earth should I?
That I should feel that I should change the way I would want this country to be governed because of a death of someone I had not previously heard of is an idea I find bizarre.
*the fifty a month is a figure I remember from my time at the Home Office and may not be currently accurate