I'm trying incredibly hard to be sanguine. A good poll for Leave or Remain naturally lifts or dents my moods a bit - but given how many pollsters have fiddled about with their methodologies, I'm not taking any to heart.
Whatever the result, I'll remain amazed at how tight it's all been. I didn't think we had a scooby. Now we're a contender.
You are a contender if the postal votes were heavily in your favour. You may still get over the line but the momentum seems to be changing
Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment
I am furious with Farage.
There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.
It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....
Farage of course would probably secretly prefer a very narrow Remain win, ideally dependent on Scotland, than an actual Leave win as a narrow Remain win ensures he becomes even more the centre of attention and UKIP leads the resistance!
I don't believe this, any more than Nicola Sturgeon wanted No to win the IndyRef in 2014 so she could be el presidente of Scotland. Nigel Farage has dedicated a large part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU, rightly or wrongly. There is no reason to think he is anything other than sincere.
I don't think Farage intended the poster to be racist. I suspect he was embarrassed about it. When you objectify people as Farage does with immigrants (they are coming in waves) you lose your human touch that guides other people away from using a poster like that.
''And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !! ''
Knockout out blow? Gamechanger? Just like the Obama intervention, eh Mr G?
This is about the thirtieth event you have heralded as the clinching move. It really is pretty nonsensical.
I am surprised no one is bringing up the fact that Brexit could initiate a catastrophic destabilization within Europe, encouraging other countries to pander to their 'Nationalistic characteristics'.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
A couple of months ago I argued that Remain needed to have big industrialists saying exactly this - a vote to Leave is a vote for US to Leave. If all the big car manufacturers said "we need to stay in the EU, be warned what we'll do if you vote out" then yes thats a powerful argument. Project fear with industry making the threats not Osborne and Cameron would have been far better.
But they aren't saying that and its not anywhere near strong enough. Reportage from places like Sunderland had it that Nissan workers were voting to Leave regardless of what their managers said - they simply don't believe their factory would go.
''I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know ''
Yes but Mr G. a few months ago you claimed Obama's 'back of the queue' comments were a knockout blow for Remain.
They were actually a boost for Leave, and Obama has now been rebuked by Congress for his comments, which it turns out were an empty and untrue threat.
On that occasion you really could not have been more wrong in your instincts. You have to admit, your track record is not good.
We all get it wrong from time to time but I do get it right more than wrong and I am sure you can see the logic in today's financial moves
''And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !! ''
Knockout out blow? Gamechanger? Just like the Obama intervention, eh Mr G?
This is about the thirtieth event you have heralded as the clinching move. It really is pretty nonsensical.
I'd imagine her beatification in the Vatican on Wednesday will be the killer blow - and probably decide the next election for Labour too.
Well if Farage did intend sinking leave he could't have chosen a better poster to stand in front off. Both Sky and BBC leading with it and tying in the Warsi story and, knowing the media they will keep going on and on about it. Is this Farage's 'Ed Stone' moment
I am furious with Farage.
There's a reason that two months ago we were saying Farage needed to be locked in a cellar for two months.
It's always me-me-fucking-me with him.....
Nothing we can do about it mate.
I have a feeling this is going to be a looooong week.
I think Leave's lead evaporated last Thursday. With inevitable swingback in the hours leading up to vote, it might even be 65/35 Remain in the end. Just gut feel. As a result, all this Farage/Warsi stuff is inconsequential in my mind. Gallows humour's already kicked in. It's a great shame, but alas the referendum's probably come 2-3 years too early.
The polling industry would be dead if it were 65-35.
Those type of numbers are nowhere to be seen. They are not in the headlines, the 10/10s, the the follow-ups. Nowhere.
I know they have their failings, but the pollsters aren't that bad.
''And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !! ''
Knockout out blow? Gamechanger? Just like the Obama intervention, eh Mr G?
This is about the thirtieth event you have heralded as the clinching move. It really is pretty nonsensical.
Where have I ever said anything is a clinching move. Indeed look at my most recent posts and you will see I have generally thought that leave may just win. Maybe you are becoming a bit worried
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
Well, no-one from the EU had the right to settle anywhere else in the EU until the EU enforced that right. If we leave the EU, UK citizens will, of course, lose that right.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
A couple of months ago I argued that Remain needed to have big industrialists saying exactly this - a vote to Leave is a vote for US to Leave. If all the big car manufacturers said "we need to stay in the EU, be warned what we'll do if you vote out" then yes thats a powerful argument. Project fear with industry making the threats not Osborne and Cameron would have been far better.
But they aren't saying that and its not anywhere near strong enough. Reportage from places like Sunderland had it that Nissan workers were voting to Leave regardless of what their managers said - they simply don't believe their factory would go.
Today's collective warning by the car manufacturers must have an effect on the communities thought processes especially as it is being backed up by the Unions. It is very brave to gamble with your job, especially well paid jobs
''And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !! ''
Knockout out blow? Gamechanger? Just like the Obama intervention, eh Mr G?
This is about the thirtieth event you have heralded as the clinching move. It really is pretty nonsensical.
Where have I ever said anything is a clinching move. Indeed look at my most recent posts and you will see I have generally thought that leave may just win. Maybe you are becoming a bit worried
Im getting a bit bored. Its like watching fans arguing with each during a third division 0-0 draw on a damp Novemnber day.
Im tempted to just ignore everything now until the returning officer stands up in Sunderland on Thursday night.
Sorry, I don't have the luxury of time to track down your old posts, but I would have thought that you have provided me with a nice example for my argument - I did note your earlier posts today about National asprirations.
I am surprised no one is bringing up the fact that Brexit could initiate a catastrophic destabilization within Europe, encouraging other countries to pander to their 'Nationalistic characteristics'.
Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!
That's the longest piece I've ever read by JK. It's very good
She should try telling that to the Mexicans getting rid of the Spanish or the Americans getting rid of the British. I am sure they would agree that life would be so much better if they were still ruled by a distant unelected elite.
She is an establishment mouthpiece , a peddlar of lies.
I struggle to believe the sudden swing in the polls one day leave are 7 to 10 points ahead then remain swing back into the lead. My past experience of elections is that once peeps have made their mind up it stays made up. Only a real major event can swing it....And this murder however sad is not that major. I can't help thinking those shy folks who had been emboldened to say leave have now become shy again....but will still vote leave.
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
Well, no-one from the EU had the right to settle anywhere else in the EU until the EU enforced that right. If we leave the EU, UK citizens will, of course, lose that right.
I personally know people who migrated and settled prior to the UK being in the EU.
There is a middle ground between "unlimited uncontrollable migration" and "no migration whatsoever". I am sure the UK will find a good balance once we Leave.
I posted my views earlier, but this thread seems more apropos. I've included handy italicised suggestions for how to spin it below.
Remain will win. Congratulations to the Remain campaign.
Leading Brexit proponent concedes defeat
Financially, I have no stake in the market - I come here for the politics and the chat. Given that we're due another million people in the next three years, I expect significant appreciation of my asset portfolio, and there will be no financial shock to adversely affect my investments. Like most affluent people, I'll prosper.
Pretends they don't care. But probably crying inside.
My one positive is that I feel much more educated and informed across a whole range of European topics, partly due to the help of the regulars on here. So thank you.
Confesses to being a giant nerd-like anorak.
Most of the old hands know I'm a butterfly. I only come here when there's something that interests me. Unless you all know something I don't, the next event will be GE2020, assuming my health lasts, insha'Allah. Take care of yourselves, and do try and be more civil to each other. We are all, after all is said and done, human beings.
Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
Well, no-one from the EU had the right to settle anywhere else in the EU until the EU enforced that right. If we leave the EU, UK citizens will, of course, lose that right.
I personally know people who migrated and settled prior to the UK being in the EU.
There is a middle ground between "unlimited uncontrollable migration" and "no migration whatsoever". I am sure the UK will find a good balance once we Leave.
Having sufficient money and/or qualifications to convince a bureaucrat to allow you to settle elsewhere in the EU isn't the same as having the right to settle elsewhere in the EU. It's a right we'll lose if we leave the EU.
I think when this is over it will be interesting to see if the might of the Press Barons held sway or it was the broadcast media that actually had the biggest influence. You would expect leave to win relatively easily with the comprehensive support of the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express but the broadcast media, in my opinion, may just have been more pro remain.
I struggle to believe the sudden swing in the polls one day leave are 7 to 10 points ahead then remain swing back into the lead. My past experience of elections is that once peeps have made their mind up it stays made up. Only a real major event can swing it....And this murder however sad is not that major. I can't help thinking those shy folks who had been emboldened to say leave have now become shy again....but will still vote leave.
This is why BMG are my favourite pollster. Their 10-15 June polls produced both a 10 point lead for Leave, and a 6 point lead for Remain.
(One was online, the other was telephone. Same company, same date range.)
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
I keep hearing this from people. Someone told me they'd voted Remain because they travel to Europe a lot (on holiday). She seemed to be labouring under the misapprehension that were the UK to leave the EU travel to the Continent from the UK would no longer be possible.
Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!
I struggle to believe the sudden swing in the polls one day leave are 7 to 10 points ahead then remain swing back into the lead. My past experience of elections is that once peeps have made their mind up it stays made up. Only a real major event can swing it....And this murder however sad is not that major. I can't help thinking those shy folks who had been emboldened to say leave have now become shy again....but will still vote leave.
This is why BMG are my favourite pollster. Their 10-15 June polls produced both a 10 point lead for Leave, and a 6 point lead for Remain.
(One was online, the other was telephone. Same company, same date range.)
Could it possibly be that over the telephone people are shy whereas online they're not?
And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !!
No doubt many people are going to be sick at this overegging by the establishment. Could easily be counter-productive. She was killed - yes and a tragedy - but how many other lives could be ruined as a result.
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
I keep hearing this from people. Someone told me they'd voted Remain because they travel to Europe a lot (on holiday). She seemed to be labouring under the misapprehension that were the UK to leave the EU travel to the Continent from the UK would no longer be possible.
We're talking about the right to settle, not tourism. Most people understand the difference.
I think when this is over it will be interesting to see if the might of the Press Barons held sway or it was the broadcast media that actually had the biggest influence. You would expect leave to win relatively easily with the comprehensive support of the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express but the broadcast media, in my opinion, may just have been more pro remain.
Do you mean that the broadcast media were/are biased? That's quite a big claim. Now, if you've got evidence.....
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
I keep hearing this from people. Someone told me they'd voted Remain because they travel to Europe a lot (on holiday). She seemed to be labouring under the misapprehension that were the UK to leave the EU travel to the Continent from the UK would no longer be possible.
We're talking about the right to settle, not tourism. Most people understand the difference.
And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !!
I think it's right that she should be remembered in the HoC but the rest is just getting too much. I'm sure the silent majority in this country feel the same but won't say so of course.
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
I keep hearing this from people. Someone told me they'd voted Remain because they travel to Europe a lot (on holiday). She seemed to be labouring under the misapprehension that were the UK to leave the EU travel to the Continent from the UK would no longer be possible.
We're talking about the right to settle, not tourism. Most people understand the difference.
She evidently did not.
When the Remain campaign kicked off - there were claims that tourists wouldn't get back into the UK.
I don't suppose there are any stats available on the people placing bets (age, income etc.) so we could attempt to weight the prediction in line with assumed inclinations of those groups?
I think when this is over it will be interesting to see if the might of the Press Barons held sway or it was the broadcast media that actually had the biggest influence. You would expect leave to win relatively easily with the comprehensive support of the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express but the broadcast media, in my opinion, may just have been more pro remain.
Do you mean that the broadcast media were/are biased? That's quite a big claim. Now, if you've got evidence.....
No not really - just when you compare their balance to the Daily Mail it is refreshing to see the broadcast media maybe being fairer
I struggle to believe the sudden swing in the polls one day leave are 7 to 10 points ahead then remain swing back into the lead. My past experience of elections is that once peeps have made their mind up it stays made up. Only a real major event can swing it....And this murder however sad is not that major. I can't help thinking those shy folks who had been emboldened to say leave have now become shy again....but will still vote leave.
Opinion isn't swinging wildly in my view; pollster methodologies are.They are scared senseless of a repeat of last year.Stand back and we have headlines:
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and all the experts say you are Mad are you really That Stupid. I wouldn't volunteer it up right now either.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
I keep hearing this from people. Someone told me they'd voted Remain because they travel to Europe a lot (on holiday). She seemed to be labouring under the misapprehension that were the UK to leave the EU travel to the Continent from the UK would no longer be possible.
We're talking about the right to settle, not tourism. Most people understand the difference.
She evidently did not.
When the Remain campaign kicked off - there were claims that tourists wouldn't get back into the UK.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I was midway writing up a response (purely anecdotally, I've heard plenty of silly things about tourists needing visas) etc and wanted to mention Ireland as well but you've beaten me to it.
Edit: incidentally, I have read quite a lot US-based coverage of the referendum and their journalists seemed to make these mistakes a lot. Academic/think-tank types seemed no less prone.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Whatever the UK vote is, we must take long hard look on the future of the Union. Would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal
Mind what people do, not only what they say, for deeds will betray a lie.
Actually that's unkind - I'm sure he believes what he is saying there. Which, notably, is not that the signal won't be ignored. Just that it would be foolish to do so.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
I believe George Osborne is on LBC tonight at about the same time as Jeremy Corbyn on SKY. I think I will watch SKY because I want to see how Faisal Islam, who IMO has made a fool of himself with some of his tweets over recent weeks, handles this. There is no doubt he is a Remainer and given the current climate (i.e Jo Cox) I'm not sure his second-rate impersonation of Paxman will work. He was far too aggressive with the PM and was rightly criticised for letting ego get the better of him.
It will be interesting to see whether he goes for JC on immigration. I think we can guarantee JC will mention "Worker's Rights" as many times as he can get away with. Likewise Ms O'Grady on the BBC debate tomorrow.
I don't understand this Warsi 'defection'? Surely it was obvious from the beginning that the leave campaign would devolve into this kind of xenophobic nonsense? I thought a number of things upon seeing Farage's poster but I certainly wasn't surprised. No one can have possibly thought it wouldn't be immigration focused from Leave at the end, whether that's your reason for supporting leave or not. I struggle to understand how she can change her mind over something like this.
She's no fan of Cameron and as a member of the lords I can't see why she would do the government any favours, so the conspiracy angle doesn't play out, but am genuinely puzzled by it.
I'm trying incredibly hard to be sanguine. A good poll for Leave or Remain naturally lifts or dents my moods a bit - but given how many pollsters have fiddled about with their methodologies, I'm not taking any to heart.
Whatever the result, I'll remain amazed at how tight it's all been. I didn't think we had a scooby. Now we're a contender.
A contender for what. The Out fraternity will be put in their box and sent out to the outer fringes of politics where they belong for decades to come.
If there is a big change, I'd really like to know how and to where all those sizeable Leave leads of a week ago have gone to.
Remainers firming up? Defectors? Swingback?
We need details. And some supplementaries would be good too.
From overt to shy given the events of last week I suspect.
Could be a Bismark..
The big change (only one) I've detected since last week is previously unenthusiastic/soft Remainers suddenly firming up and going full-on on social media, and sticking up Remain posters in their windows.
At the same time, I have scaled back due to the amount of heat and flak I was getting. And so have other Leavers.
Don't go quieter. When people don't hear the other argument they will go for what everyone else is saying.
I believe George Osborne is on LBC tonight at about the same time as Jeremy Corbyn on SKY. I think I will watch SKY because I want to see how Faisal Islam, who IMO has made a fool of himself with some of his tweets over recent weeks, handles this. There is no doubt he is a Remainer and given the current climate (i.e Jo Cox) I'm not sure his second-rate impersonation of Paxman will work. He was far too aggressive with the PM and was rightly criticised for letting ego get the better of him.
It will be interesting to see whether he goes for JC on immigration. I think we can guarantee JC will mention "Worker's Rights" as many times as he can get away with. Likewise Ms O'Grady on the BBC debate tomorrow.
''I'd imagine her beatification in the Vatican on Wednesday will be the killer blow - and probably decide the next election for Labour too.''
My instinct is the public that isn;t more interested in the footie is looking on at the Cox wailfest with utter bemusement. But there it is.
My instinct is most are not getting caught up by it, although it did provoke quite strong feeling in the moment, despite how we feel about our MPs, and won't have a direct impact on anything.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Who are you kidding? If we remain this will all fester on and on. I'm under no illusions. If we stay in I'll take in a sigh of relief but only a fool would think this has settled anything.
And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !!
This is why it is completely inappropriate to hold a vote on the UK's future for the next 40 years in a week of national mourning. No one has yet explained to me why the voter registration deadline can be extended for two days when it was interrupted for an hour, when the vote itself does not get a delay at all when it has been interrupted for three days.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
As I understand it, customs checks would be put in place, but those with Republic of Ireland passports would be able to live and work in the UK without a visa, as now.
I am sceptical of the sudden rush to Remain. We had the awful slaying of Jo Cox and then the bonkers statements from the suspect. We had campaigns formally suspended but Remain informally pinning her death directly on Farage. So on paper the momentum is now with Remain.
But really? This referendum has never been based on facts its about people's instinctive views on (partially) what the EU does and (mainly) how they feel about modern life and the UK. The macro factors driving their decision making haven't changed because of a micro factor event late on. What has changed is their social ability to state their intention.
We've talked about shy Tories in previous elections, we must have shy Leavers now. If you vote Leave you are Stupid you are Racist you are with Farage and his Nazi poster and with Mair who Murdered that MP and aer.
I think the most dangerous thing for leave today is the statement by all the car manufacturers they need to stay in Europe coupled with the huge rise in markets at the expectation of a remain win. It's the economy you know
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin
Which applies very well to those who would give up the liberty of our youth to seek their fortunes across Europe in order to purchase the illusion of safety from the immigrant hordes.
Because no-one ever went anywhere in the world before the EU existed to 'permit' us to. Right.
I keep hearing this from people. Someone told me they'd voted Remain because they travel to Europe a lot (on holiday). She seemed to be labouring under the misapprehension that were the UK to leave the EU travel to the Continent from the UK would no longer be possible.
We're talking about the right to settle, not tourism. Most people understand the difference.
She evidently did not.
When the Remain campaign kicked off - there were claims that tourists wouldn't get back into the UK.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
Irish citizens can stand for parliament too can't they? I don't think other EU citizens can?
I don't understand this Warsi 'defection'? Surely it was obvious from the beginning that the leave campaign would devolve into this kind of xenophobic nonsense? I thought a number of things upon seeing Farage's poster but I certainly wasn't surprised. No one can have possibly thought it wouldn't be immigration focused from Leave at the end, whether that's your reason for supporting leave or not. I struggle to understand how she can change her mind over something like this.
She's no fan of Cameron and as a member of the lords I can't see why she would do the government any favours, so the conspiracy angle doesn't play out, but am genuinely puzzled by it.
The only possible explanation is that she is telling the truth - she started out with an open-minded desire to see a strong UK outside the EU but then realised her travelling companions, this weekend being the, um, breaking point.
But I realise this requires you to believe what she said, which is probably a big ask.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Nationalism is on the march across the Western world, feeding upon the terrors it seeks to inflame. Every nationalist will tell you that their nationalism is different, a natural, benign response to their country's own particular needs and challenges, nothing to do with that nationalism of yore that ended up killing people, yet every academic study of nationalism has revealed the same key features. Your country is the greatest in the world, the nationalist cries, and anyone who isn't chanting that is a traitor! Drape yourself in the flag: doesn't that make you feel bigger and more powerful? Finding the present scary? We've got a golden past to sell you, a mythical age that will dawn again once we've got rid of the Mexicans/left the EU/annexed Ukraine! Now place your trust in our simplistic slogans and enjoy your rage against the Other!
Perhaps remain should mock up Farage's poster with the cast of Benidorm and a long queue of elderly and infirm Britons snaked behind them with the logo 'Our nhs's REAL BREAKING POINT'
I know the discussion about the ongoing right of residence on this thread is saying things are not so black and white, but does anyone seriously think the deal on health insurance continuation will be in any way beneficial?
I don't understand this Warsi 'defection'? Surely it was obvious from the beginning that the leave campaign would devolve into this kind of xenophobic nonsense? I thought a number of things upon seeing Farage's poster but I certainly wasn't surprised. No one can have possibly thought it wouldn't be immigration focused from Leave at the end, whether that's your reason for supporting leave or not. I struggle to understand how she can change her mind over something like this.
She's no fan of Cameron and as a member of the lords I can't see why she would do the government any favours, so the conspiracy angle doesn't play out, but am genuinely puzzled by it.
She's changed her mind once or twice on this before.. "People who vote BNP have some quite legitimate concerns.", Sept 2007 "it’s not racist to limit immigration and our aim has always been to cut it", "it’s time to make the economic case for less immigration.", May 2013
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
Then the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Cameron and Osborne will be put to the sword.
I don't understand this Warsi 'defection'? Surely it was obvious from the beginning that the leave campaign would devolve into this kind of xenophobic nonsense? I thought a number of things upon seeing Farage's poster but I certainly wasn't surprised. No one can have possibly thought it wouldn't be immigration focused from Leave at the end, whether that's your reason for supporting leave or not. I struggle to understand how she can change her mind over something like this.
She's no fan of Cameron and as a member of the lords I can't see why she would do the government any favours, so the conspiracy angle doesn't play out, but am genuinely puzzled by it.
The only possible explanation is that she is telling the truth - she started out with an open-minded desire to see a strong UK outside the EU but then realised her travelling companions, this weekend being the, um, breaking point.
But I realise this requires you to believe what she said, which is probably a big ask.
Perhaps she wants to be a minister in a post-Cameron government. I've wondered whether we'll get others 'switching' as polling day gets closer for career reasons.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Robert there is so much you seem to disagree with about the VoteLeave campaign I am surprised you didn't make a pitch to be the official one yourself.
If Rob was running the vote leave campaign I think it would be very much like mine or Richard Tyndall's, in which case we would have gone down in flames with an honourable 30% concentrating on non-EU trade and independence from the ECJ. Like it or not, immigration is the argument that brings in the masses and having seen how dirty the Remain side have fought, especially since the death of the MP, having one side fight the honourable fight while Osborne stabs the other in the back isn't something I'd be on board with.
Is there any Brexit scenario for the next 10-20 years of British history that you would regard as worse than remaining in the EU?
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
Remain showing there are no depths to which they'd not plumb: Will Straw Ordered Remain to Attack Vote Leave Over Jo Cox Death - recording http://order-order.com/2016/06/20/will-straw/
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
I still think Leave will win. At least until tomorrow.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
But less than a week ago you were convinced that Leave would win and that civilisation was about to collapse. The fact is that we won't really know until about 4am on Friday morning. Everything else is just speculation and 'polling'.
I don't understand this Warsi 'defection'? Surely it was obvious from the beginning that the leave campaign would devolve into this kind of xenophobic nonsense? I thought a number of things upon seeing Farage's poster but I certainly wasn't surprised. No one can have possibly thought it wouldn't be immigration focused from Leave at the end, whether that's your reason for supporting leave or not. I struggle to understand how she can change her mind over something like this.
She's no fan of Cameron and as a member of the lords I can't see why she would do the government any favours, so the conspiracy angle doesn't play out, but am genuinely puzzled by it.
The only possible explanation is that she is telling the truth - she started out with an open-minded desire to see a strong UK outside the EU but then realised her travelling companions, this weekend being the, um, breaking point.
But I realise this requires you to believe what she said, which is probably a big ask.
Farage isn't part of the official Vote Leave organisation. So not part of her "travelling companions".
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Leaving the EU would almost certainly mean leaving the CTA if immigration control is a serious priority for a future post-Brexit government. The passport union wasn't affected by the entry into the EEC as both countries joined at the same time but if one was in and the other out of the EEA - which would be necessary to control intra-EEA migration to the UK - the CTA would become unsustainable.
Not that that would be likely to affect the residency rights of those already living and working here.
And just to help leavers mood - Sky now switching to the HOC tribute to Jo Cox, no doubt televised in full before they start setting up their cameras in Trafalgar Square for the Jo Cox International tribute on Wednesday afternoon !!
This is why it is completely inappropriate to hold a vote on the UK's future for the next 40 years in a week of national mourning. No one has yet explained to me why the voter registration deadline can be extended for two days when it was interrupted for an hour, when the vote itself does not get a delay at all when it has been interrupted for three days.
Because extending voter registration helps Remain. Delaying the vote does not, and would probably cause legal problems anyway.
It's easier to choreograph worldwide eulogies and make political capital from it.
Irish citizens can stand for parliament too can't they? I don't think other EU citizens can?
As I understand it, because of the passport union since 1922, people born in Northern Ireland can - for whatever reason (political/religious etc) - exchange their right to a UK passport for a Republic of Ireland one. If those holding a Republic of Ireland passport were suddenly to be re-classed as (for want of better term) 'foreign' citizens, that fate would befall a number (who knows how many) of people living in (and who were born in) Northern Ireland.
In short, Ireland's more hassle than it's worth. The passport union would continue.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
Leaving aside which way the vote goes does anyone have the slightest idea what happens from Friday onwards?
I'll be recovering from my hang over, and start looking to buy some currency. Then hopefully we'll have the football, Glasto, Wimbledon and some nice weather to look forward to.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
And it will make immigration the number one issue at the next GE, which might not be the most edifying experience.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
What if you lose?
I think now that outcome is quite unthinkable. Even Southam hasn't been on here the last 5 minutes telling us leave will win and he was right all along. Something is up.
You demonstrate what is the main feature of this site during election campaigns. Endless swings between panic and over-confidence.
For the record, I do expect a small win for Remain.
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
I see no evidence on here or elsewhere that UK Remain supporters will learn any lessons from it at all.
Which means the issue will continue to seriously feature in British politics.
Another common one is Ireland. A Remainer I know was under the illusion that if we voted to leave the EU, his Irish fiance would no longer be eligible to live in England. I'm fairly certain the UK and Ireland have had a passport union since 1922....
I though the official Leave policy - which I disagree with - is to also leave the Common Travel Area.
Leaving the EU would almost certainly mean leaving the CTA if immigration control is a serious priority for a future post-Brexit government. The passport union wasn't affected by the entry into the EEC as both countries joined at the same time but if one was in and the other out of the EEA - which would be necessary to control intra-EEA migration to the UK - the CTA would become unsustainable.
Not that that would be likely to affect the residency rights of those already living and working here.
Residency rights would remain the same. They'd simply have to go through customs/passport checks etc when crossing the border.
I don't understand this Warsi 'defection'? Surely it was obvious from the beginning that the leave campaign would devolve into this kind of xenophobic nonsense? I thought a number of things upon seeing Farage's poster but I certainly wasn't surprised. No one can have possibly thought it wouldn't be immigration focused from Leave at the end, whether that's your reason for supporting leave or not. I struggle to understand how she can change her mind over something like this.
She's no fan of Cameron and as a member of the lords I can't see why she would do the government any favours, so the conspiracy angle doesn't play out, but am genuinely puzzled by it.
The only possible explanation is that she is telling the truth - she started out with an open-minded desire to see a strong UK outside the EU but then realised her travelling companions, this weekend being the, um, breaking point.
But I realise this requires you to believe what she said, which is probably a big ask.
Farage isn't part of the official Vote Leave organisation. So not part of her "travelling companions".
Even the Sainted Kate today on DP acknowledged the connections between the Leavers.
Irish citizens can stand for parliament too can't they? I don't think other EU citizens can?
As I understand it, because of the passport union since 1922, people born in Northern Ireland can - for whatever reason (political/religious etc) - exchange their right to a UK passport for a Republic of Ireland one. If those holding a Republic of Ireland passport were suddenly to be re-classed as (for want of better term) 'foreign' citizens, that fate would befall a number (who knows how many) of people living in (and who were born in) Northern Ireland.
In short, Ireland's more hassle than it's worth. The passport union would continue.
I was going to make a cheeky comment about racist immigration policies... But I have work to do
You have to hand it to the BBC- featuring Farage claiming that Cameron is exploiting the Jo Cox murder, Warsi discussing the Farage poster, Branson, the Cox tributes, the stock market bouncing back. The establishment is a tough beast to fell.
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Tyson, if remain win on the back of a dead MP, it won't settle the argument. If remain had won on the merits of its arguments, overblown though they are, then I think a lot of people would have let sleeping dogs lie for a long time. Now that it was a black swan event that has seemingly swung it back in favour of remain, I don't see how it will result in any kind of real settling of the issue, it will just fester on and when next year's net migration figures show 350k people have arrived in the country with the vast majority from the EU, it will all flare up again, and again, and again. Like it or not, around half of the country are not comfortable with high levels of migration, especially no unskilled migration from the EU, a remain vote won without winning that argument will not last very long.
A 55% vote share would have led to a vast 'Tory' majority in the HoC, but that's the only world I can think of in which 55% and vast majority would go together.
Comments
I don't think Farage intended the poster to be racist. I suspect he was embarrassed about it. When you objectify people as Farage does with immigrants (they are coming in waves) you lose your human touch that guides other people away from using a poster like that.
Knockout out blow? Gamechanger? Just like the Obama intervention, eh Mr G?
This is about the thirtieth event you have heralded as the clinching move. It really is pretty nonsensical.
But they aren't saying that and its not anywhere near strong enough. Reportage from places like Sunderland had it that Nissan workers were voting to Leave regardless of what their managers said - they simply don't believe their factory would go.
Sure I'll take my cue from you. After a thirty year career as a bond trader and professional financial journalist, what do I know, after all.
My instinct is the public that isn;t more interested in the footie is looking on at the Cox wailfest with utter bemusement. But there it is.
Im tempted to just ignore everything now until the returning officer stands up in Sunderland on Thursday night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/06/20/101183580_Dagens-Industri-news-large_trans++K96jFipRmA3u8vuxyHmQSXuo2TpXwfRUpLzaWyn1CO8.jpg
I can't help thinking those shy folks who had been emboldened to say leave have now become shy again....but will still vote leave.
I personally know people who migrated and settled prior to the UK being in the EU.
There is a middle ground between "unlimited uncontrollable migration" and "no migration whatsoever". I am sure the UK will find a good balance once we Leave.
Remain will win. Congratulations to the Remain campaign.
Leading Brexit proponent concedes defeat
Financially, I have no stake in the market - I come here for the politics and the chat. Given that we're due another million people in the next three years, I expect significant appreciation of my asset portfolio, and there will be no financial shock to adversely affect my investments. Like most affluent people, I'll prosper.
Pretends they don't care. But probably crying inside.
My one positive is that I feel much more educated and informed across a whole range of European topics, partly due to the help of the regulars on here. So thank you.
Confesses to being a giant nerd-like anorak.
Most of the old hands know I'm a butterfly. I only come here when there's something that interests me. Unless you all know something I don't, the next event will be GE2020, assuming my health lasts, insha'Allah. Take care of yourselves, and do try and be more civil to each other. We are all, after all is said and done, human beings.
Flounces off in a huff.
(One was online, the other was telephone. Same company, same date range.)
Looks like this is going the same way as the ScotsRef.
Leave:Ipsos, ICM Phone, ICM Online, BMG Online, ORB Online, Yougov (ITV), TNS
Level:Opinium
Remain:Survation , ORB Phone, BMG Phone, Yougov (Sunday Times), Comres
On 10/10 Remain lead with Survation and BMG Phone. Leave have the rest.
The reshuffle is going to be interesting after the vote to see who is "up" and who is "down."
Edit: incidentally, I have read quite a lot US-based coverage of the referendum and their journalists seemed to make these mistakes a lot. Academic/think-tank types seemed no less prone.
The problem with that statement is of course the Establishment are in charge of both campaigns.
Vote Leave, to make Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Eton and Oxford, your next PM. Really stick it to the establishment...
To think I was genuinely worried last week that Leave had the momentum. They never stood a chance.
Thankfully, the Euro debate can be kicked to the sidelines for a generation, and slime balls like Gove and Patel will be put to the sword.
Actually that's unkind - I'm sure he believes what he is saying there. Which, notably, is not that the signal won't be ignored. Just that it would be foolish to do so.
It will be interesting to see whether he goes for JC on immigration. I think we can guarantee JC will mention "Worker's Rights" as many times as he can get away with. Likewise Ms O'Grady on the BBC debate tomorrow.
She's no fan of Cameron and as a member of the lords I can't see why she would do the government any favours, so the conspiracy angle doesn't play out, but am genuinely puzzled by it.
Nick Herbert was simply pointing this out.
Will Straw Ordered Remain to Attack Vote Leave Over Jo Cox Death - recording
http://order-order.com/2016/06/20/will-straw/
BREAKING: Sky sources: Ched Evans to sign for Chesterfield later today. #SSNHQ
But I realise this requires you to believe what she said, which is probably a big ask.
I know the discussion about the ongoing right of residence on this thread is saying things are not so black and white, but does anyone seriously think the deal on health insurance continuation will be in any way beneficial?
"People who vote BNP have some quite legitimate concerns.", Sept 2007
"it’s not racist to limit immigration and our aim has always been to cut it", "it’s time to make the economic case for less immigration.", May 2013
But in between those, June 2012, we had this http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cabinet-split-as-baroness-warsi-attacks-racist-curbs-on-immigration-7873596.html
Normal service resumed after June 23rd, another nag
So Cypriots and Maltese can.
Looking forward to it.
Bloody hell.....all that effect, that campaign, the outrage, the national debate to play for........Chesterfield Rovers.
Farage isn't part of the official Vote Leave organisation. So not part of her "travelling companions".
Not that that would be likely to affect the residency rights of those already living and working here.
It's easier to choreograph worldwide eulogies and make political capital from it.
In short, Ireland's more hassle than it's worth. The passport union would continue.
Oh....you weren't talking about me.
For the record, I do expect a small win for Remain.
Which means the issue will continue to seriously feature in British politics.