politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thursday could end up becoming a referendum on Nigel Farage
Comments
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£20 for me @Jobabob.Jobabob said:
The drift on Leave this morning is something to behold. Presumably the Leave boosters on here will be putting their lives' savings and their house on the 4.9...?Roger said:
Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suitAlastairMeeks said:Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
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The pound started falling BEFORE the polls shifted towards Brexit. If it's now moving up again it suggests that private polling is heading back to Remain. You also have to bear in mind the momentum shift. I still struggle to see how Leave is not over-priced though at 4.4. The awful events last week could well be noise not signal.0
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Old skool. In a good way.marke09 said:Labour Leave on fire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0KMk0kdO5i80 -
Good comment. Pity we cant 'up vote'.Alanbrooke said:
Ford dont make any cars in this countryScott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
Also they're not the biggest carmaker in the world by a long way0 -
I'll take Remain at 4.7 :Prottenborough said:6K just went on Remain at 4.7
edit - sorry meant leave0 -
you are only saying that because you don't like they way they report things.PlatoSaid said:
Sky is beyond stupid since Thursday.Morris_Dancer said:Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
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A bit of recovery for Leave. Now at 4.60
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Beginning to think the Farage/UKIP poster was the turning point. What was he thinking? Leave were winning, no need to scare the horses like that.0
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rottenborough said:
Interesting tweet on @britainelects about turn-out (its a graphic).
Looks like Remain need to be several points ahead.
Pollsters try to adjust for turnout before giving results.0 -
They make engines which they have said previously will get sold round the world no matter whether were in our out. They have closed down or disposed of all their other UK manufacturing assets.TheWhiteRabbit said:
They make car parts though.Alanbrooke said:
Ford dont make any cars in this countryScott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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It must be very large sums.TheWhiteRabbit said:How much money has it taken to shift Leave from ~3.8 to ~5?
Interestingly, oddschecker doesnt show that many more bets. Implication is large bets are being placed.0 -
Is this the same company that relocated a Transit plant to Turkey using our money?TheWhiteRabbit said:
They make car parts though.Alanbrooke said:
Ford dont make any cars in this countryScott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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£40 million matched now.0
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Farage did not know Jo Cox was going to be mudered and LEAVE blammed.DanSmith said:Beginning to think the Farage/UKIP poster was the turning point. What was he thinking? Leave were winning, no need to scare the horses like that.
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@LadPolitics: £25,000 bet on REMAIN from a Ladbrokes shop in Newport, https://t.co/Qj3B0u4inB.
Odds now:
1/4 REMAIN
3/1 LEAVE
https://t.co/Fg2y5EyA2S0 -
I don't bet with money I couldn't afford to lose, but by my standards I have a lot of money on Leave now. I don't want it to win but I think it has a much better chance than the odds suggest.Jobabob said:
The drift on Leave this morning is something to behold. Presumably the Leave boosters on here will be putting their lives' savings and their house on the 4.9...?Roger said:
Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suitAlastairMeeks said:Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
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Because it is running stories you don't like. Tough luck.PlatoSaid said:
Sky is beyond stupid since Thursday.Morris_Dancer said:Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
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Mr. Root, do you think the 'defection' of Warsi is the most significant story in both the EU referendum campaign and the world generally?0
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He was thinking, if we leave, I'll lose my job and allowances, and given his track record in becoming an MP, you can see why he's a closet Remainer.DanSmith said:Beginning to think the Farage/UKIP poster was the turning point. What was he thinking? Leave were winning, no need to scare the horses like that.
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I think the shitstorm that Farage and UKIP are getting now was merely delayed by what happened to Jo Cox, not caused by it.David_Evershed said:
Farage did not know Jo Cox was going to be mudered and LEAVE blammed.DanSmith said:Beginning to think the Farage/UKIP poster was the turning point. What was he thinking? Leave were winning, no need to scare the horses like that.
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27% postal votes is higher than most were predicting, I thought it was 27%. What sort of lead do remain need on the day to win do u think?Paul_Bedfordshire said:27% of electorate have voted by post.
73% will vote on Thursday of which about 60% will turn up.
60% of 73 % is 44%.
So we have 71% turnout of which 44% vote on the day and 27% voted before that poster or Thursdays dreadful event.
Thst means that JUST UNDER 40% OF THOSE WHO WILL VOTE HAVE ALREADY VOTED.
Its over - remain have already lost, hence all the signs of bitterness and capitulation.
Labours famous Postal Vote machine has won it for Brexit.
Also are the polls taking into account anyone who has already voted.0 -
@marks_hallam: Ford says media misrepresentations of company views prompted them to speak up. Decision "up to UK voters", though. https://t.co/oa6yLA6VjF
Maybe they read PB...0 -
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?Scott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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"Leave has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale".TheScreamingEagles said:
He saidStark_Dawning said:
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
Then included a link to this video
https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y0 -
Did Brexit just hit 6 on Betfair?!0
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Exactly.TheScreamingEagles said:
He was thinking, if we leave, I'll lose my job and allowances, and given his track record in becoming an MP, you can see why he's a closet Remainer.DanSmith said:Beginning to think the Farage/UKIP poster was the turning point. What was he thinking? Leave were winning, no need to scare the horses like that.
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That's not fair. They were industrially dishonest from Day 1logical_song said:"Leave has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale".
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Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.0
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Lady Warsi really has moved the betting markets this morning
Shadsy: £25,000 bet on REMAIN in a Ladbrokes shop in Newport.0 -
I've said it before. Farage is in it for Farage.DanSmith said:Beginning to think the Farage/UKIP poster was the turning point. What was he thinking? Leave were winning, no need to scare the horses like that.
A narrow REMAIN win is ideal for him and keeps him in the game. UKIP will thrive over the next few years as all Cameron's promise's turn to ashes and he also gets to keep his place on the EU gravy train.
REMAIN is a win, win for him.0 -
SKY describe Farage response to Warsi as 'angry' when it was no such thing.0
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5 I think. Back down to 4.4 now.david_herdson said:Did Brexit just hit 6 on Betfair?!
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Paul_Bedfordshire - how do you know that 27% of the electorate have already voted by post? That's a huge number. If 27% have asked for a postal vote that doesn't mean they will use it.0
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Lol!TGOHF said:0 -
A plague on both your houses is likely to be a vote for the status quo.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
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Ah ha......TheScreamingEagles said:£40 million matched now.
Last week the great British public looked into the abyss, as Brexit gathered up momentum, and saw Farage's huge mug standing in front of a racist poster.
Thank goodness we live in a tolerant country after all.
And John O- my long time political betting sparring partner, his dad has put up a remain poster, at the young age of 88. My heart melts.
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Turkey is not a member of the EU, nor likely to be in the near future. Can you explain why the EU would subsidise a van plant in a non-EU country?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?Scott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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The movements in the betting markets are far too febrile if based on rumours of a poll. Unless the poll is a big outlier. But who here believes outliers?
Preposterous? Or simply pre-posterior? @AlastairMeeks0 -
I have a mental image of people in the city cheering each other on to ever bigger "remain" bets (At any odds)
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That question is wrong. It's not why would it's why did?logical_song said:
Turkey is not a member of the EU, nor likely to be in the near future. Can you explain why the EU would subsidise a van plant in a non-EU country?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?Scott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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What might prove decisive this week is a very crowded and well co-ordinated Remain grid.
It's pretty clear what they spent Friday and Saturday doing and we seem to have effectively reverted to a pre-purdah period for the last 72 hours, which should see Remain comfortably over the line.0 -
It's a very good quote and an interesting cliplogical_song said:
"Leave has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale".TheScreamingEagles said:
He saidStark_Dawning said:
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
Then included a link to this video
https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y0 -
Why should that mean Brexit win?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Thst means that JUST UNDER 40% OF THOSE WHO WILL VOTE HAVE ALREADY VOTED.
Its over - remain have already lost, hence all the signs of bitterness and capitulation.
Labours famous Postal Vote machine has won it for Brexit.0 -
The graph shows the red line hitting 6 at the most recent?TheScreamingEagles said:
5 I think. Back down to 4.4 now.david_herdson said:Did Brexit just hit 6 on Betfair?!
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There's a spike in the graph that hit 6. I haven't seen anything longer than 5.TheScreamingEagles said:
5 I think. Back down to 4.4 now.david_herdson said:Did Brexit just hit 6 on Betfair?!
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I was quoting from the video, which is worth watching.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
He also criticises the Remain campaign, but emphasises that Leave "has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale, on an industrial scale"0 -
@RobDotHutton: Kate Hoey disowns @vote_leave's "Turkey is joining the EU" poster. Says Turkey accession is "an absolute possibility", though.
@RobDotHutton: Say what you like about Nigel Farage, at least he doesn't go on TV and deny knowledge of his own campaign materials.0 -
Since they're a very highly-reputed pollster and there's a huge amount of money hanging on the result of this vote, I'm guessing they mean that they won't be doing any more *public* polls.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: Just to reconfirm for those who missed it, there will not be further online/phone polls from @ICMResearch prior to the referendum.
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Quite. He's also suggesting that all 27% cast their postal vote before last Tuesday, which is preposterous.FrankBooth said:Paul_Bedfordshire - how do you know that 27% of the electorate have already voted by post? That's a huge number. If 27% have asked for a postal vote that doesn't mean they will use it.
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If the Remain leads look too large tonight, voters will recalibrate to narrow it again, IMHO.Pulpstar said:I have a mental image of people in the city cheering each other on to ever bigger "remain" bets (At any odds)
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Remain price now 1/5 and still tightening. Let's not beat around the bush Cox aligned with the Farage poster has sunk Leave below the waterline. Could now be 55-45 Remain or better.0
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South Wales Argus Poll
1336 respondents
68% Leave
30% Remain
2% Undecided
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
I think she could be on the money with that!0 -
Does his repeating his statement make it more true?logical_song said:
I was quoting from the video, which is worth watching.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
He also criticises the Remain campaign, but emphasises that Leave "has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale, on an industrial scale"
I think a few porkies have been told on both sides, in truth.0 -
It doesn't, but it does increase their chances.JessieShamus said:
Why should that mean Brexit win?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Thst means that JUST UNDER 40% OF THOSE WHO WILL VOTE HAVE ALREADY VOTED.
Its over - remain have already lost, hence all the signs of bitterness and capitulation.
Labours famous Postal Vote machine has won it for Brexit.0 -
Can you provide a link?eek said:
That question is wrong. It's not why would it's why did?logical_song said:
Turkey is not a member of the EU, nor likely to be in the near future. Can you explain why the EU would subsidise a van plant in a non-EU country?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?Scott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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I guess REMAIN can all start celebrating.
I suggest REMAIN supporters show their support and plough ALL savings into REMAIN.
We got "Ding Dong Witch is Dead" to No 1. We can get LEAVE odds up to 10/1.
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UKIP does well in Wales.Fenster said:South Wales Argus Poll
1336 respondents
68% Leave
30% Remain
2% Undecided
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
I think she could be on the money with that!0 -
JHB also tweeted that Britain paid for n ireland's EU redevelopment funds because we were one of only two net contributors 'at the time'. Don't know when 'the time' was but in 2000, just after the Peace Process was being implemented, there were 6-8 net contributors (two are very marginal cases), of which the UK was 6th by proportion of GDP.Casino_Royale said:
As with so much of this campaign (on both sides) a half-decent point is undermined by exaggeration.0 -
Most people use their postal vote the same day it arrives through the letter box so they don't forget.Jebediah_Beane1 said:
Quite. He's also suggesting that all 27% cast their postal vote before last Tuesday, which is preposterous.FrankBooth said:Paul_Bedfordshire - how do you know that 27% of the electorate have already voted by post? That's a huge number. If 27% have asked for a postal vote that doesn't mean they will use it.
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Yes you're right. I was just looking at the app and not the graphdavid_herdson said:
The graph shows the red line hitting 6 at the most recent?TheScreamingEagles said:
5 I think. Back down to 4.4 now.david_herdson said:Did Brexit just hit 6 on Betfair?!
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There are no marginals in this referendum; in fact, marginals may lean more Remain than safe seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.chestnut said:All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
They were very accurate last May
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On my Facebook there's 65 people so far set to attend the 'More in common:Cardiff festival of action to celebrate the life of Jo Cox' on Wednesday evening. I think this is extremely unwise.
It just so happens that I've just started reading Marlon James' 'A History of seven killings' a novel about Jamaica in 1976 where Bob Marley is set to host a peace concert before the upcoming election.0 -
Farage was - and clearly still is - Brussel's Useful Idiot. They will put his dumb, gurning fizzog on the 50 Euro note.TheScreamingEagles said:
He was thinking, if we leave, I'll lose my job and allowances, and given his track record in becoming an MP, you can see why he's a closet Remainer.DanSmith said:Beginning to think the Farage/UKIP poster was the turning point. What was he thinking? Leave were winning, no need to scare the horses like that.
In the words of Vic Reeve "You wouldn't let it lie, would you? You wouldn't let it lie..."0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: Is this the late goal that David Cameron needs? Premier League bosses come out against quitting the EU https://t.co/lCwWTMFihl0
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Is it that or the expected swingback Remain have been predicting.RobC said:Remain price now 1/5 and still tightening. Let's not beat around the bush Cox aligned with the Farage poster has sunk Leave below the waterline. Could now be 55-45 Remain or better.
In either case the events of the last week mean the issue wont go away.
Surprisingly while I had been expecting a split Tory party, it seems Labour are trying to join them . This contest has just torn up the rule book.0 -
What is your source for this?Paul_Bedfordshire said:27% of electorate have voted by post.
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A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.
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Maybe, but they might also turn down private commissions. Sounds to me as if they're twitchy about their methodology or being undermined by late swings, and that they'd rather protect against reputational damage than bring in some extra revenue. If so, private polling (that might be leaked) could be just as bad.edmundintokyo said:
Since they're a very highly-reputed pollster and there's a huge amount of money hanging on the result of this vote, I'm guessing they mean that they won't be doing any more *public* polls.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: Just to reconfirm for those who missed it, there will not be further online/phone polls from @ICMResearch prior to the referendum.
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If I had a pound for every time someone had said on here Leave/Remain is now a done deal..RobC said:Remain price now 1/5 and still tightening. Let's not beat around the bush Cox aligned with the Farage poster has sunk Leave below the waterline. Could now be 55-45 Remain or better.
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I can't actually think of one truthful thing the Out team has said. It is quite something, even by the levels of modern politics, that an entire political campaign lasting (excruciatingly weeks) could be filled entirely on untruths, lies, slander and racism.Roger said:
It's a very good quote and an interesting cliplogical_song said:
"Leave has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale".TheScreamingEagles said:
He saidStark_Dawning said:
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
Then included a link to this video
https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y
OK- the only thing the In campaign has really said (apart from pointing out the lies in Out) is that an Out vote will hurt the economy- judging by todays markets bounce, and the IMF predictions, and by major business leaders saying that they could no longer invest in the UK post Brexit, that seems entirely plausible.
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Ashcroft's post Sindy Review was told there had been a 22% postal vote.
Over half the votes were from 55+ voters . The inferred Remain lead was 62-38 by post.
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I thought something similar. Yes Ford make engines here. They have their innovation centre here which designed their turbo-blowing 1 litre engine. But car manufacturing and now vans have long gone. Then again, flip the argument over and you have James Dyson who off-shored all his manufacturing arguing for Leave.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?Scott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
All these businesses have literally no concern for British jobs. Bankism means take the profit now and forget about tomorrow, and if that means and end to British industry then who cares - we still have retail. And we are heading towards Douglas Adams' Shoe Event Horizon, the only difference being that instead of shoe shops its fucking coffee bars.0 -
<
I read it here from a poster yesterday.TCPoliticalBetting said:
What is your source for this?Paul_Bedfordshire said:27% of electorate have voted by post.
........
A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.0 -
Multi-millionaires back Remain. Good for them!Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Is this the late goal that David Cameron needs? Premier League bosses come out against quitting the EU https://t.co/lCwWTMFihl
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Euroscepticism always was a fringe movement. It will be a measure of the general discontent with politicians and the way of things that such a narrow-minded and essentially extreme right-wing position got as close as it did to commanding a majority in a referendum. For there are no other circumstances in which a majority of the U.K. Population would contemplate handing the country over to a movement within which Gove, IDS and Boris are the sensible wing.Patrick said:
In your dreams maybe. A narrow Remain win fires the starting gun for the next one. A Neverendum ensues.Stark_Dawning said:
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.Fenman said:Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
UKIP will fight on, and the splits in the Tory party will continue, but otherwise a Remain vote buries the issue for a generation.0 -
Pulpstar said:
Err ?chestnut said:Ashcroft's post Sindy Review was told there had been a 22% postal vote.
Over half the votes were from 55+ voters . The inferred Remain lead was 62-38 by post.
Scottish referendumPulpstar said:
Err ?chestnut said:Ashcroft's post Sindy Review was told there had been a 22% postal vote.
Over half the votes were from 55+ voters . The inferred Remain lead was 62-38 by post.0 -
There are numerous voodoo polls running on football sites as well.Fenster said:South Wales Argus Poll
1336 respondents
68% Leave
30% Remain
2% Undecided
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
I think she could be on the money with that!
Swansea City are leave at the moment.
Sunderland were also showing as leave.0 -
Sounds about right for the Greed is Good League. Perhaps they are worried about the affect it might have on Sky.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Is this the late goal that David Cameron needs? Premier League bosses come out against quitting the EU https://t.co/lCwWTMFihl
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I think the latent support is absolutely there, but a majority of the public simply won't take a leap of faith and vote for Brexit unless there's a ready made deal on the table and a government to back it.david_herdson said:
Maybe, but they might also turn down private commissions. Sounds to me as if they're twitchy about their methodology or being undermined by late swings, and that they'd rather protect against reputational damage than bring in some extra revenue. If so, private polling (that might be leaked) could be just as bad.edmundintokyo said:
Since they're a very highly-reputed pollster and there's a huge amount of money hanging on the result of this vote, I'm guessing they mean that they won't be doing any more *public* polls.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: Just to reconfirm for those who missed it, there will not be further online/phone polls from @ICMResearch prior to the referendum.
In this sense, the EU and UK Remainers are their own worst enemies. I suspect the former to make only cosmetic changes in the event of a UK Remain vote, and the latter to crow and sneer unbearably.0 -
That's the percentage of actual voters right, not the whole electorate?TCPoliticalBetting said:
What is your source for this?Paul_Bedfordshire said:27% of electorate have voted by post.
........
A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.0 -
A post with much to recommend it, particularly the last few paras.John_M said:Good morning all.
If I ever wondered what the conversation was like in courts of the 18th century ancien regime I need look no further than PB this morning. Good grief.
I do want to pick up on Southam's point about crocodile tears from Tory voters. Deficit reduction is key for me. I think Osborne has been too slow, and we're increasingly paying the price for that slowness.
However, only stupid people think that Brexit wouldn't be a shock to the UK's financial system. Given that, only stupid people would think that the appropriate response would be Osborne's punishment budget. A mild fiscal stimulus would be better. Pragmatism over ideology if you will.
That said, I think Southam is one of the few remainers on here who 'gets' it.
rcs1000 pointed out (and I agree) that our economy isn't in great shape. It's a shame we're having a referendum now. Brown's maladministration and Osborne's caution have done us few favours.
Finally, and I think I'm going to bow out after this (there are only so many times you can take people masking their own self-interest while shrieking "racism"), I'm simply going to assert that trying to win the argument based on moral taint is daft. That's not to say it doesn't work, it might, see my next paragraph
Every time I go to the ballot box, I'm aware that I'm in the virtual company of bigots of every stripe, morons, sheeple and ignoramuses. To require moral purity before voting for or against a cause is hilariously confused thinking.
PS Just read stodge's post. Superb. Kudos to you sir.0 -
If Im wrong on reading 27% I can only apologise. Im sure I didnt imagine it.0
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Those City boys are evidently betting on some tip off or other, rightly or wrongly.
Has there been a leak on a forthcoming poll which is favourable to REMAIN?
Has there been a leak as regards postal voting in one particular area perhaps? - Personally I can't see how this can happen on the dual sealed envelope system in use, short of brazenly opening the inner ballot paper envelopes.0 -
I am off. There is too much guff being sprayed about and dont want to be infected.
Guess that makes me a shy LEAVE on PB0 -
Not really. A remain vote will be a repudiation of the nauseous, vile, mendacious Out campaign, and a huge political victory for David Cameron and George Osborne and their campaign. I'll probably even be tempted to lend hopefully PM George Osborne my vote for the 2020 election if Labour doesn't get its act together by then.FF43 said:
A plague on both your houses is likely to be a vote for the status quo.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
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The Cox Wail fest is the establishment talking to themselves, in my view.
The death of Jo Cox is no more tragic than a single soldier dying in Afghanistan to joe public, I reckon.
Whisper it, but maybe less.
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The likelihood is that a significant majority - those who post as soon as it arrives - will have voted at a time when Brexit was at its strongest in the polls and before Farage and THAT poster and the killing of Jo Fox. With a vote on a knife-edge, it could be crucial.JessieShamus said:
Why should that mean Brexit win?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Thst means that JUST UNDER 40% OF THOSE WHO WILL VOTE HAVE ALREADY VOTED.
Its over - remain have already lost, hence all the signs of bitterness and capitulation.
Labours famous Postal Vote machine has won it for Brexit.
I still have no idea which side is going to win. One thing's for sure though - I wouldn't be wanting to pile my banker bonus on Remain at the Betfair odds today....0 -
It was a post independence vote review - Ashcoft asked how many voted by post, and then he asked how they voted.Pulpstar said:
Err ?chestnut said:Ashcroft's post Sindy Review was told there had been a 22% postal vote.
Over half the votes were from 55+ voters . The inferred Remain lead was 62-38 by post.
No (Remain) to Independence was 24 points ahead on the postal vote going into Scottish referendum day. On the day it was 52-48 to No.
Yes to Indepenence would have needed an eight point win on the day to claw back their postal deficit.0 -
If Yougov release a poll tonight, they'll still be polling. I'm not sure if ORB would still be polling if they release a poll tonight.peter_from_putney said:Those City boys are evidently betting on some tip off or other, rightly or wrongly.
Has there been a leak on a forthcoming poll which is favourable to REMAIN?
Has there been a leak as regards postal voting in one particular area perhaps? - Personally I can't see how this can happen on the dual sealed envelope system in use, short of brazenly opening the inner ballot paper envelopes.0 -
A Remain vote buries the issue until five seconds after the EU does something we were told they would NEVER do, no sirreeeee.....IanB2 said:
Euroscepticism always was a fringe movement. It will be a measure of the general discontent with politicians and the way of things that such a narrow-minded and essentially extreme right-wing position got as close as it did to commanding a majority in a referendum. For there are no other circumstances in which a majority of the U.K. Population would contemplate handing the country over to a movement within which Gove, IDS and Boris are the sensible wing.Patrick said:
In your dreams maybe. A narrow Remain win fires the starting gun for the next one. A Neverendum ensues.Stark_Dawning said:
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.Fenman said:Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
UKIP will fight on, and the splits in the Tory party will continue, but otherwise a Remain vote buries the issue for a generation.0 -
Mr. Eagles, why would he shoot Stalin or Hitler? They're both dead already.
On a more serious note: finding people saying silly things on Twitter isn't hard. A Call of Duty developer got death threats (and some aimed at his family) over Twitter because a patch was released altering the reload times of various weapons.
There have been some less than subtle suggestions that the Leave campaign is responsible for Jo Cox's murder. Neither campaign is exactly shimmering with purity.0 -
And 16.9% of voters at 2015 GE = 11% of the electorate.TCPoliticalBetting said:
What is your source for this?Paul_Bedfordshire said:27% of electorate have voted by post.
........
A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.
It is totally inconceivable that the number voting by post has gone from 11% to 27% in the space of one year.0 -
My guess is that the 16.9% figure is the proportion of electors register to vote by post (of which I would guess about 80% will return their ballots). The higher 27% figure is probably an estimate of the proportion of people who actually turn out are postal voters. The easy mistake to make in doing such a calculation is to reduce the non-postal voters by the assumed polling station turnout and then divide it by the total of the turnout and the registered postal voters. Whereas of course non-returning postal voters also need to be allowed for. To know whether the figure is likely to be accurate, or not, we would need to see the workings......Paul_Bedfordshire said:If Im wrong on reading 27% I can only apologise. Im sure I didnt imagine it.
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Presumably because Stalin and Hitler are dead.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
There were people (3-5?) waving Leave placards on one of the M4 bridges in Newport this morning. Meaningless per se of course, but top marks for dedication as it was sheeting it down.KentRising said:
UKIP does well in Wales.Fenster said:South Wales Argus Poll
1336 respondents
68% Leave
30% Remain
2% Undecided
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
I think she could be on the money with that!0 -
They may be involved but I think it's more about SJWs. The left wing version of the Diana fans.taffys said:The Cox Wail fest is the establishment talking to themselves, in my view.
The death of Jo Cox is no more tragic than a single soldier dying in Afghanistan to joe public, I reckon.
Whisper it, but maybe less.0 -
You'd be lying to yourself if you don't suspect something's definitely changed this time. It all hinges on the flaky 10% if you like. They want to go with the mood. the mood now has turned.Casino_Royale said:
If I had a pound for every time someone had said on here Leave/Remain is now a done deal..RobC said:Remain price now 1/5 and still tightening. Let's not beat around the bush Cox aligned with the Farage poster has sunk Leave below the waterline. Could now be 55-45 Remain or better.
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