Sky Business were saying that the strong market rally started in Tokyo and has continued into the European markets with rises in both the stock markets and the currencies and that this is attributed to the polls last Friday showing a lead for remain. The increasing confidence that remain is going to win must be based on something more than one or two polls showing a trend and maybe the feeling is that immigration, leave's strong case, is being seriously compromised by Farage's poster and the wide scale condemnation from all sides.
The good side of the electorate is that they are fair minded and this may be having a negative impact on the leave immigration argument. Also Jo Cox will play out right up to and including polling day with the HOC tribute this afternoon then the world wide event from Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday.
I still believe leave will win on the strength of the postal votes but if the economic warnings and the effect of Jo Cox's tragic killing take hold, there could be a last minute surge for remain - I think the pen hovering over the ballot paper on Thursday and it coming down for the status quo may just alter the result to remain
Piers Corbyn and The Express have a symbiotic relationship. He pretends to be a weather forecaster and provides The Express with eye-catching dramatic meteorological predictions; The Express pretends he is a weather forecaster and gives him money.
It is to my mind a philosophical failure - instead of actively investing in Eastern Europe to promote jobs and rebuild and restructure the post-Communist economies after 1989 which might have impoverished us slightly in the short term but would have paid dividends in the longer term, we frittered away our "Peace Dividend" on tax cuts for ourselves.
We created in areas like Southern England and Germany areas of such overwhelming economic attraction they have pulled in people in such numbers that in order for these areas to maintain their prosperity they need even more people as cheap labour. That has impoverished many other areas of Europe and has now come back to us in terms of social problems.
It's absurd, short-termist and ultimately doomed to failure.
And yet you bleat on about a poster..
I was astonished by the figure of Lithuania losing a third of its population since joining the EU.
With the UK debate focussed on immigration we ignore the effects on emigration on poorer countries.
The Poles (terrible fertility rate AND high emigration) are wrestling with the issue of how to attract their own people 'home' and how/whether to bring in Belorussians to do things like care for the Polish elderly.
With our fixation on immigration we're often looking down the wrong end of the telescope. I depend on immigrants for my health care (a bunch of visits this week. My endocrinologist is from Ghana. His assistant is Greek. My psychiatrist is Iraqi, her assistant is Spanish. And so on). Good for me. However, we should always spare a thought for the source countries. By and large, we get their best and brightest.
I wrote yesterday that free movement of labour is Europe's 2nd amendment issue. In both cases I don't believe the originators could have seen how time would render their intent harmful. Sadly, we're going to struggle with it for years to come, just as the Americans will struggle with gun control.
I think a supporter of a campaign which has talked about war if we vote to LEAVE, has threatened pensioners with cuts to their pensions if we vote to LEAVE and which has threatened to slash public spending if we vote to LEAVE needs to re-adjust his perception of "squalid".
Cameron and Osborne have threatened, cajoled, intimidated and harassed the people of Britain all to save their worthless political hides. They have been aided by international groups who are terrified that if we vote to leave the EU project, other countries will follow and the whole edifice, from which they have prospered, will collapse around them.
Let's talk about immigration then - if it reaches a point where two jobless Lithuanians would rather sleep rough under the A13 than be taken home at the tax payers' expense we have a problem but the problem is not immigration per se.
It is to my mind a philosophical failure - instead of actively investing in Eastern Europe to promote jobs and rebuild and restructure the post-Communist economies after 1989 which might have impoverished us slightly in the short term but would have paid dividends in the longer term, we frittered away our "Peace Dividend" on tax cuts for ourselves.
We created in areas like Southern England and Germany areas of such overwhelming economic attraction they have pulled in people in such numbers that in order for these areas to maintain their prosperity they need even more people as cheap labour. That has impoverished many other areas of Europe and has now come back to us in terms of social problems.
It's absurd, short-termist and ultimately doomed to failure.
Tyson. Merkel offers a million Muslim immigrants a place in Germany, a few years later they have German passports and a right to live next door to Mrs Duffy. The EU refuses to enforce its own external borders. So the EU is an issue, a massive issue, in Middle-Eastern migration to the UK. This country's downtrodden WWC plebs are bright enough to see this. Not a judgment call but a statement of the obvious.
FWIW I think we should encourage immigration but to a numerical limit effected by a points system - and this is not possible within the EU.
Why should we allow our freedom to live where we like in the EU be sacrificed to in order to appease Mrs Duffy's distaste for neighbours of a certain type? Doesn't her freedom end where mine begins?
Have you, Mr FE ever been to Rochdale? I lived there in the early 60’s and still go occasionaly. It’s a very different town to what it was. The architecture is a bit better, the town hall is clean, and even more impressive, but the people are very different.
And, just to be clear, I’m voting Remain.
I'm not sure how your comment relates to my point, which was that would I resent the curtailment of my freedom to live where I like in the EU in order to appease the sensibilities of those who would prefer neighbours of a certain type.
I’m saying, Mr FE, that Mrs D, assuming she's a born & bred Rochdalian, has seen the “typical;” population of her home town change enormously. You and I may wish to choose to live elsewhere in the EU, but that’s our choice, and when we do, we have to remember that some of our new neighbours may not welcome change.
Which, I suppose, explains why the old tend to favour Leave while the young tend towards Remain. It's the desire of the old for stability versus the desire of the young for opportunity.
I think that could be true. Doesn’t stop me, getting towards 80, voting Remain, though. As you rightly say, the young need opportunity.
An excellent opening post, spoilthedog and welcome along to the madhouse.
This board is a microcosm of modern debate - generally well-mannered, civil and with a huge range of knowledge and perspectives. I have learnt a lot passively from reading the posts of lawyers, engineers, scientists and the gamut of other professional and non-professional people who post here and enrich the site.
Yet, debate is also about passion and intensity and believing in the cause and yes at times the price of that passion is a deterioration in civility but the anger is a part of us and expressing it is part of what makes us human. We anger, we move on, we apologise or we don't.
My response to your post would be that we are all able (indeed far more so than we have ever been) to do our own research and our own thinking, Browse, read, listen and think would be my advice. Get as many viewpoints as you can and think about them.
Ultimately while there is right and left, there is no right and wrong on this one. Neither LEAVE nor REMAIN has the monopoly of truth or wisdom.
Thanks Stodge. That is pretty much what Im trying to do, and as I said to Plato, I intend to spend time digging deeper into the arguments on both sides, rather than relying on referendum discourse .Im finding information free from vested interest is actually quite hard to come by though. This shouldn't really be a debating contest -- the team with the best debaters and tactics wins. It should really be a decision made on fact and cold, indisputable information as much as possible. In my fantasy world.
Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.
New poster, so please be gentle. I'm still undecided on how I'll vote (I've been wobbling drunkenly from one side to the other) but I find it inexplicable to suggest anyone should be swayed by either the murder of Jo Cox or whether or not they can bear to be on the same side as Nigel Farage. For the record I dislike Nigel Farage and his poster, but they do not define the case for Brexit.
Equally Im trying not to allow my repulsion over the horrible milking of Jo Cox's death to sway my attitude toward the case to stay in the EU, though Im becoming angrier by the day at how my intelligence is being insulted. The Remain case should be intellectual and factual. Unlike Brexit, they have the full resource of government and the big business, media and political establishments behind them. They should be easily persuading me out of my apprehension over Britain's direction in the EU, by appealing to my common sense. But the way the deification of Jo Cox is so blatantly being used to foster gut-emotion and guilt, and particularly toward swaying women (who are clearly seen as weak-minded and sentimental) is infuriating me as it goes on, day after relentless day.
I'm having to actively force myself to remember that the manner in which the campaign is being fought should not matter to my ultimate decision. I don't want anyone, least of all myself, to vote on an issue as vital as this, out of spite, or imposed guilt, or mawkish sentimentality or dog whistle accusations of racism or personal dislike.
Somebody I work with from the Remain campaign's ideal demographic (young female professional, high earner, inner London resident, always votes Labour) who's changed her mind repeatedly just told me how she voted.
It was Leave
Anecdote Alert .
Met a young professional woman high earner inner London professional . She told me she works with an obsessed Leaver who is such a political geek he even posts on a political website . To get him off her back and let her concentrate on her job she told him she had already voted Leave despite the fact she does not have a postal vote .and will be voting Remain on Thursday .
Anecdote Alert . A coin dealer voting Lib Dem, once met a Conservative voter that they liked. Complete fiction.
Tyson. Merkel offers a million Muslim immigrants a place in Germany, a few years later they have German passports and a right to live next door to Mrs Duffy. The EU refuses to enforce its own external borders. So the EU is an issue, a massive issue, in Middle-Eastern migration to the UK. This country's downtrodden WWC plebs are bright enough to see this. Not a judgment call but a statement of the obvious.
FWIW I think we should encourage immigration but to a numerical limit effected by a points system - and this is not possible within the EU.
Why should we allow our freedom to live where we like in the EU be sacrificed to in order to appease Mrs Duffy's distaste for neighbours of a certain type? Doesn't her freedom end where mine begins?
Have you, Mr FE ever been to Rochdale? I lived there in the early 60’s and still go occasionaly. It’s a very different town to what it was. The architecture is a bit better, the town hall is clean, and even more impressive, but the people are very different.
And, just to be clear, I’m voting Remain.
I'm not sure how your comment relates to my point, which was that would I resent the curtailment of my freedom to live where I like in the EU in order to appease the sensibilities of those who would prefer neighbours of a certain type.
I’m saying, Mr FE, that Mrs D, assuming she's a born & bred Rochdalian, has seen the “typical;” population of her home town change enormously. You and I may wish to choose to live elsewhere in the EU, but that’s our choice, and when we do, we have to remember that some of our new neighbours may not welcome change.
Which, I suppose, explains why the old tend to favour Leave while the young tend towards Remain. It's the desire of the old for stability versus the desire of the young for opportunity.
Not in my social circle it isn't. Most of the pensioners I know are voting for change because they see that as providing a better future for their children and grandchildren. In my experience the elderly are seldom more concerned about themselves than they are for their offspring and will vote accordingly.
Even those who don't fancy the Guardian may be inclined to concede that she makes some good points.
Good article. We're back to the '70s in more ways than one, aren't we?
I'm calling it for Remain now. However, I have no idea how Cameron (or his replacement) is going to get through any kind of substantive legislative program between now and 2020. I guess we're going to go for the full Belgian experience.
Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.
Sky Business were saying that the strong market rally started in Tokyo and has continued into the European markets with rises in both the stock markets and the currencies and that this is attributed to the polls last Friday showing a lead for remain. The increasing confidence that remain is going to win must be based on something more than one or two polls showing a trend and maybe the feeling is that immigration, leave's strong case, is being seriously compromised by Farage's poster and the wide scale condemnation from all sides.
The good side of the electorate is that they are fair minded and this may be having a negative impact on the leave immigration argument. Also Jo Cox will play out right up to and including polling day with the HOC tribute this afternoon then the world wide event from Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday.
I still believe leave will win on the strength of the postal votes but if the economic warnings and the effect of Jo Cox's tragic killing take hold, there could be a last minute surge for remain - I think the pen hovering over the ballot paper on Thursday and it coming down for the status quo may just alter the result to remain
Clearly the markets see a Remain vote as positive and a Leave vote as negative. But I would be very surprised if there were too much behind the scenes knowledge motivating current movements. They have seen the polls and they have reacted. When Leave wins there will be a massive sell off.
With our fixation on immigration we're often looking down the wrong end of the telescope. I depend on immigrants for my health care (a bunch of visits this week. My endocrinologist is from Ghana. His assistant is Greek. My psychiatrist is Iraqi, her assistant is Spanish. And so on). Good for me. However, we should always spare a thought for the source countries. By and large, we get their best and brightest.
Quite. Mass Immigration is immoral.
It is immoral to force it on the native population. Certainly no benefits to Native Americans or Tazmanian Aborigines.
It is also immoral to poach desperately needed talent from poor countries. Poor countries use scant resources to train professionals. Rich countries poach them to cut costs (wages & training). It perpetuates underdevelopment. It is a modern day unholy scandal.
Vote Leave are scarcely better than Nigel Farage. Their posters blare "Turkey is joining the EU", but while finding themselves without the space to explain what they mean by this, they find the space to include "(population 76 million)". When showing maps of applicant countries, they highlight Iraq and Syria.
Vote Leave are merely the lace curtain version of Nigel Farage. They are following his strategy. If Leave wins, it will do so on his terms and it will be his victory.
Do you think it's legitimate to campaign against free movement of people, and highlight the possible extension of this right to future EU applicant states, or not?
If so, how would you do it?
a) Yes I do think it's legitimate.
b) Not by telling straightforward untruths to stir up fear of immigrants.
If I were opposed to membership of the EU I would be unutterably ashamed of how this campaign had been fought by the Leave campaign. I'm incredibly disappointed that so few Leave supporters can see just how disgraceful this campaign has been.
Yeah, but you'd have preferred them to meekly roll over and lose by 40 points.
Interesting you think Leave would have lost by 40 points if they had stuck to the truth.
No, if they'd have meekly rolled over and accepted BSE's lies and scaremongering.
Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.
Times said yesterday that Javid was on-board for a Crabb leadership bid, with a promise of Chancellorship.
Glad I took Crabb up at 19 a couple of months ago.
Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.
Times said yesterday that Javid was on-board for a Crabb leadership bid, with a promise of Chancellorship.
Glad I took Crabb up at 19 a couple of months ago.
It would still be a meteoric rise. The Tory system does allow for that, but it's difficult to rely on.
Somebody I work with from the Remain campaign's ideal demographic (young female professional, high earner, inner London resident, always votes Labour) who's changed her mind repeatedly just told me how she voted.
It was Leave
Anecdote Alert .
Met a young professional woman high earner inner London professional . She told me she works with an obsessed Leaver who is such a political geek he even posts on a political website . To get him off her back and let her concentrate on her job she told him she had already voted Leave despite the fact she does not have a postal vote .and will be voting Remain on Thursday .
Anecdote Alert . A coin dealer voting Lib Dem, once met a Conservative voter that they liked. Complete fiction.
2nd definition of anecdote: "an account regarded as unreliable or hearsay."
Long time lurker and very rare poster here with my own unscientific anecdotes.
My other half is a tax lawyer to the billionaires. At a meeting with private bankers last week the consensus was the majority of the high net worth's want to leave as they think it will be a lot easier for the very rich to control a UK government rather than the EU.
It odes reinforce my own feeling that people a cherry-picking bits of the leave dream to imagine the Britain that will follow Brexit.
I started the campaign as a shy leaver and have moved to a fairly firm remain over the course of the infantile campaign and am beginning to move from thinking a week ago leave were going to run away with it to now suspecting a fairly comfortable remain win is back on the cards.
What has happened for the last few weeks is a big shuddering halt to the economy over the uncertainty which will be showing in the official figures for quite some time to come.
Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.
Times said yesterday that Javid was on-board for a Crabb leadership bid, with a promise of Chancellorship.
Glad I took Crabb up at 19 a couple of months ago.
It would still be a meteoric rise. The Tory system does allow for that, but it's difficult to rely on.
Sky Business were saying that the strong market rally started in Tokyo and has continued into the European markets with rises in both the stock markets and the currencies and that this is attributed to the polls last Friday showing a lead for remain. The increasing confidence that remain is going to win must be based on something more than one or two polls showing a trend and maybe the feeling is that immigration, leave's strong case, is being seriously compromised by Farage's poster and the wide scale condemnation from all sides.
The good side of the electorate is that they are fair minded and this may be having a negative impact on the leave immigration argument. Also Jo Cox will play out right up to and including polling day with the HOC tribute this afternoon then the world wide event from Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday.
I still believe leave will win on the strength of the postal votes but if the economic warnings and the effect of Jo Cox's tragic killing take hold, there could be a last minute surge for remain - I think the pen hovering over the ballot paper on Thursday and it coming down for the status quo may just alter the result to remain
Clearly the markets see a Remain vote as positive and a Leave vote as negative. But I would be very surprised if there were too much behind the scenes knowledge motivating current movements. They have seen the polls and they have reacted. When Leave wins there will be a massive sell off.
But I was expecting doom and gloom on the markets as part of the mood music in the days running up to voting itself. If the economy isn't front and centre, then immigration takes its place....
It doesnt necessarily mean Bookies see REMAIN as more likely. If money is going into REMAIN, they can cover any potential losses on LEAVE.
Betting markets do not tell the whole story.
Polls do not tell the whole story. Use of the murder has created more shy LEAVE voters.
A man named Will Pigg was murdered by his wife's ex. The ex was driven over the edge by the CSA. Nobody tried to associate estranged fathers with murder.
Some REMAIN are drooling with glee at a change in polls. To trust these polls, especially considering 2015, is inadvisable.
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.
Times said yesterday that Javid was on-board for a Crabb leadership bid, with a promise of Chancellorship.
Glad I took Crabb up at 19 a couple of months ago.
It would still be a meteoric rise. The Tory system does allow for that, but it's difficult to rely on.
Hadn't heard of him before. He's got a French wife and is presumably a Remainer.
You don't need to be an expert in law to know that it would be illegal for an EU member state - which is what we would still be on 24th June - to act contrary to EU law. What the Leave manifesto proposes is clearly illegal, but in practical terms what could be done to prevent its implementation? A court case would take so long that any hearing would be likely to occur after the UK had left the EU.
Once again, though, there would be significant reputational damage, as the UK would be n as a country that did not respect basic tenets of international law. As an inward investor that may worry you; just as it may worry you if you were thinking about doing a trade deal with the UK.
It doesnt necessarily mean Bookies see REMAIN as more likely. If money is going into REMAIN, they can cover any potential losses on LEAVE.
Betting markets do not tell the whole story.
Polls do not tell the whole story. Use of the murder has created more shy LEAVE voters.
A man named Will Pigg was murdered by his wife's ex. The ex was driven over the edge by the CSA. Nobody tried to associate estranged fathers with murder.
Some REMAIN are drooling with glee at a change in polls. To trust these polls, especially considering 2015, is inadvisable.
Why do you think Jo Cox's murder has created more shy leavers - On balance I think that it will have strengthened the young vote for remain at the very least
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
I would suggest that both sides have reason to be worried - However, as you know I am a remainer on the economic argument but if leave wins we must accept the result, come together, and see that the will of the people is respected
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Fuck me. This is political betting dot com.
We also focus when the movement is the other way too.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Fuck me. This is political betting dot com.
We also focus when the movement is the other way too.
My punt on remain in the 1.60s last week is making me a bit worried too...
Why do you think Jo Cox's murder has created more shy leavers - On balance I think that it will have strengthened the young vote for remain at the very least
Why? Because they say so. REMAIN became more aggressive.
Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne.
REMAIN behaves as a Child. The response to the Child is to behave as a Child, Adult or Parent.
LEAVE wish not to respond as Child. Parent is not possible as debate is poisoned. LEAVE will act as Adult and ignore the Child.
Adult response to the child means the child wins, in the short term, we see this now.
Voters will act as Parent in the privacy of the voting booth.
Cycling today, I saw 30 Remain posters and none for Leave. Mind, I was travelling through Hackney and Islington. I also saw 1 poster for Jeremy Corbyn, which I thought was a bit strange!
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Fuck me. This is political betting dot com.
We also focus when the movement is the other way too.
I think Remain will win too, but your posts and Twitter timeline tell their own story.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
They do seem to latch onto a story and repeat it ad infinitum. However if the story is the economy is strengthening on the prospect of a remain vote and it, too, is repeated ad infinitum it will play into the narrative that leaving is unsafe in economic terms
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
global economy...
Stocks, sterling and oil soared at the start of the week after polls suggested the U.K. was more likely to vote to remain in the European Union in Thursday's referendum than previously expected.
The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped 3.4% late morning, extending Friday's momentum, while the British pound surged 2.1% against the dollar to $1.4653, on track for its highest settlement since May.
Futures pointed to a 1.3% opening gain for the S&P 500. Changes in futures markets don't necessarily reflect market moves after the opening bell.
"We're in this sort of frenzied period where Brexit is front and center, " said Bob Doll, senior portfolio manager at Nuveen Asset Management.
A survey published in the Mail on Sunday showed that 45% of respondents backed the U.K. staying in the trade bloc, compared with 42% in favor of leaving. The poll-of-polls, averaging the last six polls in the U.K. vote, returned to 50/50, suggesting growing momentum for the "remain camp" in the June 23 referendum.
Concerns about a U.K. exit from the EU had sent stocks around the world tumbling in recent sessions, while bond yields dropped to record lows as investors feared a prolonged period of uncertainty and a hit to growth and trade in the world's fifth-largest economy.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
I think LuckyGuy noted that 'defection' has no meaning in a referendum. More like defecation.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens...
My wife is Estonian (ethnically Russian).
She came out for Leave yesterday.
And your point is.....?
My wife is happy being an Italian. She is a proud Italian. Unlike your wife who can vote presumably, my wife cannot. She married me when the rules were we could move through the EU and marry who we wanted without having to renounce our country of citizenship. Brexit wants to changes the rules. Bit unfair for those people who are stuck in long term relationships.
If my wife renounces her Italian citizenship the implications for her in Italy are really quite profound in respect to inheritance and tax, and all things I wouldn't want to bore you with, but are really fundamentally important to her.
My point is that more non-native (for want of a better word) voters will vote Leave than you would hope.
My wife can't vote, actually - she's one of these people who doesn't vote normally because "they're all the same", so she's never bothered to get British citizenship. But if she's at all typical of those who think "they're all the same"...
My understanding from looking at the judgements of the Italian Constitutional Court (you see I do care about you) is that she cannot be forced to lose her Italian Nationality/citizenship if she also takes British Citizenship as a result of marriage. The Italians certainly do seem to expended a lot of constitutional court time making sure this is the case.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
I would suggest that both sides have reason to be worried - However, as you know I am a remainer on the economic argument but if leave wins we must accept the result, come together, and see that the will of the people is respected
I appreciate that Big G. I've felt much better about Tory party prospects post-referendum having read your posts over the last week or so.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Fuck me. This is political betting dot com.
We also focus when the movement is the other way too.
My punt on remain in the 1.60s last week is making me a bit worried too...
Martin Skrtel FGS at 40/1 tonight. You know it makes sense.
Why do you think Jo Cox's murder has created more shy leavers - On balance I think that it will have strengthened the young vote for remain at the very least
Why? Because they say so. REMAIN became more aggressive.
Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne.
REMAIN behaves as a Child. The response to the Child is to behave as a Child, Adult or Parent.
LEAVE wish not to respond as Child. Parent is not possible as debate is poisoned. LEAVE will act as Adult and ignore the Child.
Adult response to the child means the child wins, in the short term, we see this now.
Voters will act as Parent in the privacy of the voting booth.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Of course they are!
But it's not like there aren't some other people on here with the opposite cognitive dissonance
Unnoticed, there's a big betting trend taking place on Betfair that in any other week would be worth several threads.
Donald Trump is currently last matched at 1.17 on the "next Republican nominee" market. There is good liquidity at 1.16. To quote the rules: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2016 Republican National Convention."
That means that serious punters think that there is a better than 6/1 chance that Donald Trump will be blocked by the Republican party establishment despite having won more votes than any other Republican Primary candidate and with an absolute majority of delegates.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
It is all a little desperate.
It reminds me of how the Communists behaved before the collapse of East Germany, USSR etc.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Of course they are!
But it's not like there aren't some other people on here with the opposite cognitive dissonance
Long time lurker and very rare poster here with my own unscientific anecdotes.
My other half is a tax lawyer to the billionaires. At a meeting with private bankers last week the consensus was the majority of the high net worth's want to leave as they think it will be a lot easier for the very rich to control a UK government rather than the EU.
It odes reinforce my own feeling that people a cherry-picking bits of the leave dream to imagine the Britain that will follow Brexit.
I started the campaign as a shy leaver and have moved to a fairly firm remain over the course of the infantile campaign and am beginning to move from thinking a week ago leave were going to run away with it to now suspecting a fairly comfortable remain win is back on the cards.
What has happened for the last few weeks is a big shuddering halt to the economy over the uncertainty which will be showing in the official figures for quite some time to come.
Yes, when the Leavers parrot the "Let's take control!" slogan, I wonder how many of them stop to consider just which "us" Boris and co are referring to.
You don't need to be an expert in law to know that it would be illegal for an EU member state - which is what we would still be on 24th June - to act contrary to EU law. What the Leave manifesto proposes is clearly illegal, but in practical terms what could be done to prevent its implementation? A court case would take so long that any hearing would be likely to occur after the UK had left the EU.
Once again, though, there would be significant reputational damage, as the UK would be n as a country that did not respect basic tenets of international law. As an inward investor that may worry you; just as it may worry you if you were thinking about doing a trade deal with the UK.
Yes, Leave need to be careful they don't turn Britain into a pariah state. For some in Leave this is, of course, the preferred outcome, but I'm sure the Leave mainstream would like to keep at least some of our international reputation intact. If Gove and Boris embark on some kind of bonfire of the treaties then these trade agreements with Albania etc. might be put into jeopardy.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
It is all a little desperate.
It reminds me of how the Communists behaved before the collapse of East Germany, USSR etc.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
It is all a little desperate.
It reminds me of how the Communists behaved before the collapse of East Germany, USSR etc.
The must paper over the cracks.
Nobody watches Sky News. Which is a shame, because it's often better than the BBC I find.
If they're backing Leave, that may be indicative of the result. [I still think Remain will win, but it's something to consider].
Mr. NorthWales, when polls put Leave ahead and the stock market declined, Sky ran it as a story. The next day, the stock market rose, and story was there none. Now it's rising and some polls (still basically 50/50) are better for Remain and it's being painted as caused by Remain 'winning'.
Warsi's so-called defection is utter tosh, yet it's got top billing.
Cycling today, I saw 30 Remain posters and none for Leave. Mind, I was travelling through Hackney and Islington. I also saw 1 poster for Jeremy Corbyn, which I thought was a bit strange!
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
I see no remain posters around at all, but a fair few leave ones. But then this is north hampshire.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Fuck me. This is political betting dot com.
We also focus when the movement is the other way too.
My punt on remain in the 1.60s last week is making me a bit worried too...
Martin Skrtel FGS at 40/1 tonight. You know it makes sense.
If Leave wins by one vote, we'd enjoy/endure days of recounts and would probably end up in court as someone was found to have voted twice / wasn't eligible / whatever.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens...
My wife is Estonian (ethnically Russian).
She came out for Leave yesterday.
And your point is.....?
My wife is happy being an Italian. She is a proud Italian. Unlike your wife who can vote presumably, my wife cannot. She married me when the rules were we could move through the EU and marry who we wanted without having to renounce our country of citizenship. Brexit wants to changes the rules. Bit unfair for those people who are stuck in long term relationships.
If my wife renounces her Italian citizenship the implications for her in Italy are really quite profound in respect to inheritance and tax, and all things I wouldn't want to bore you with, but are really fundamentally important to her.
My point is that more non-native (for want of a better word) voters will vote Leave than you would hope.
My wife can't vote, actually - she's one of these people who doesn't vote normally because "they're all the same", so she's never bothered to get British citizenship. But if she's at all typical of those who think "they're all the same"...
My understanding from looking at the judgements of the Italian Constitutional Court (you see I do care about you) is that she cannot be forced to lose her Italian Nationality/citizenship if she also takes British Citizenship as a result of marriage. The Italians certainly do seem to expended a lot of constitutional court time making sure this is the case.
Baroness Warsi getting top billing even though most of the country have never heard of her. Now Nigel Farage getting a very aggressive grilling from Norman Smith on BBC. That bloody poster has so much damage. The Leave campaign must wish they can lock NF in a dungeon somewhere until it's all over.
Interesting comment from John Rentoul (The Independent) saying it's now a competition between Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn to see who can do the most damage.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
I would suggest that both sides have reason to be worried - However, as you know I am a remainer on the economic argument but if leave wins we must accept the result, come together, and see that the will of the people is respected
I appreciate that Big G. I've felt much better about Tory party prospects post-referendum having read your posts over the last week or so.
Chapeau, Sir.
I really think there are many on both sides who are very conflicted and that once the votes are counted there will be a better coming together than many expect. Indeed I noted that Boris has been part of 70 Brexiteers who have signed a letter to support David Cameron post 23rd no matter the result. Add that to the existing Conservative MP's for remain you get over 260 out of the 330 who will support David Cameron. I do not see his position as being threatened unless he decides to stand down but even then he would not plunge the party into an Ed Miliband crisis by just walking away
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
Mr. Dawning, in about 1992 when I first came to the conclusion that the UK would be a better place if it were outside the EU it was very much a minority view, it is now a mainstream one. Even a few years ago those of us who wanted to leave were constantly referred to as swivel-eyed loonies, to be ignored, mocked and derided according to taste. Yet we are having a referendum on the issue in a few days time and the result looks too close to call. How did that come about?
If the vote is to remain do you think that the views of 40% plus (if we are to believe the polls) of the electorate will suddenly change? I hate military metaphors in the discussion of politics but I'd say it would be a case of the battle is lost but the campaign goes on.
Yes, when the Leavers parrot the "Let's take control!" slogan, I wonder how many of them stop to consider just which "us" Boris and co are referring to.
Both TSE and OGH are desperate to latch onto any positive news or nuance for Remain, which their Twitter timeline on poll details and constant Betfair movement tracking tell you.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
Fuck me. This is political betting dot com.
We also focus when the movement is the other way too.
My punt on remain in the 1.60s last week is making me a bit worried too...
Martin Skrtel FGS at 40/1 tonight. You know it makes sense.
Tomorrow's national mood is going to be affected by the results in tonight's footy. Who knows how that will then bleed into sentiment on the Referendum. But Remain must be praying that Russia and the Slovaks don't both win. By my reckoning, on a 1-0 Slovak win and a 2-0 Russia win, Wales are going home and England are third, biting their nails on the outcome of other groups.... (Although, four points should be enough to get through, you'd hope...)
Comments
The good side of the electorate is that they are fair minded and this may be having a negative impact on the leave immigration argument. Also Jo Cox will play out right up to and including polling day with the HOC tribute this afternoon then the world wide event from Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday.
I still believe leave will win on the strength of the postal votes but if the economic warnings and the effect of Jo Cox's tragic killing take hold, there could be a last minute surge for remain - I think the pen hovering over the ballot paper on Thursday and it coming down for the status quo may just alter the result to remain
With our fixation on immigration we're often looking down the wrong end of the telescope. I depend on immigrants for my health care (a bunch of visits this week. My endocrinologist is from Ghana. His assistant is Greek. My psychiatrist is Iraqi, her assistant is Spanish. And so on). Good for me. However, we should always spare a thought for the source countries. By and large, we get their best and brightest.
I wrote yesterday that free movement of labour is Europe's 2nd amendment issue. In both cases I don't believe the originators could have seen how time would render their intent harmful. Sadly, we're going to struggle with it for years to come, just as the Americans will struggle with gun control.
If the 43% were Remain and 28% included NKs, it is a valid strategy.
Never the less, the immigration issue is very real. People have a right to be made aware.
Thank you.
A coin dealer voting Lib Dem, once met a Conservative voter that they liked.
Complete fiction.
I'm calling it for Remain now. However, I have no idea how Cameron (or his replacement) is going to get through any kind of substantive legislative program between now and 2020. I guess we're going to go for the full Belgian experience.
It is immoral to force it on the native population. Certainly no benefits to Native Americans or Tazmanian Aborigines.
It is also immoral to poach desperately needed talent from poor countries. Poor countries use scant resources to train professionals. Rich countries poach them to cut costs (wages & training). It perpetuates underdevelopment. It is a modern day unholy scandal.
Glad I took Crabb up at 19 a couple of months ago.
I've come to the conclusion this particular market is of relevance to traders only.
@legalcheek: It looks like a Brexit on vote leave's terms might be illegal... https://t.co/tw3KZtK9iJ
My other half is a tax lawyer to the billionaires. At a meeting with private bankers last week the consensus was the majority of the high net worth's want to leave as they think it will be a lot easier for the very rich to control a UK government rather than the EU.
It odes reinforce my own feeling that people a cherry-picking bits of the leave dream to imagine the Britain that will follow Brexit.
I started the campaign as a shy leaver and have moved to a fairly firm remain over the course of the infantile campaign and am beginning to move from thinking a week ago leave were going to run away with it to now suspecting a fairly comfortable remain win is back on the cards.
What has happened for the last few weeks is a big shuddering halt to the economy over the uncertainty which will be showing in the official figures for quite some time to come.
Honestly the closest piece to my own view that I've read all campaign.
Brexit poll in N Ireland edition of The Sun look at the Unionist/Nationalist split https://t.co/WV2KwlM9TX
Betting markets do not tell the whole story.
Polls do not tell the whole story. Use of the murder has created more shy LEAVE voters.
A man named Will Pigg was murdered by his wife's ex. The ex was driven over the edge by the CSA. Nobody tried to associate estranged fathers with murder.
Some REMAIN are drooling with glee at a change in polls. To trust these polls, especially considering 2015, is inadvisable.
I have a bet with someone on what the Betfair odds would be at 10pm tonight and at 9.59pm on Thursday.
I'm on course to win both bets.
The referendum is simply to vote IN or OUT. There are no terms defined.
Once again, though, there would be significant reputational damage, as the UK would be n as a country that did not respect basic tenets of international law. As an inward investor that may worry you; just as it may worry you if you were thinking about doing a trade deal with the UK.
http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/06/18/news/poll-shows-increased-support-in-north-for-brexit-567859/
60-40 for Remain. Another Remain stronghold where they are supposed to be further ahead than they are.
Which tells you that they are secretly a little bit worried.
We also focus when the movement is the other way too.
Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne.
REMAIN behaves as a Child. The response to the Child is to behave as a Child, Adult or Parent.
LEAVE wish not to respond as Child.
Parent is not possible as debate is poisoned.
LEAVE will act as Adult and ignore the Child.
Adult response to the child means the child wins, in the short term, we see this now.
Voters will act as Parent in the privacy of the voting booth.
But at what percentage is it a good result for Remain ?
60% - yes
55% - yes
53-47 % - maybe
52-48 % - possibly
51-49% - mmm not sure..
50><51% - the uncertainty continues.
Stocks, sterling and oil soared at the start of the week after polls suggested the U.K. was more likely to vote to remain in the European Union in Thursday's referendum than previously expected.
The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped 3.4% late morning, extending Friday's momentum, while the British pound surged 2.1% against the dollar to $1.4653, on track for its highest settlement since May.
Futures pointed to a 1.3% opening gain for the S&P 500. Changes in futures markets don't necessarily reflect market moves after the opening bell.
"We're in this sort of frenzied period where Brexit is front and center, " said Bob Doll, senior portfolio manager at Nuveen Asset Management.
A survey published in the Mail on Sunday showed that 45% of respondents backed the U.K. staying in the trade bloc, compared with 42% in favor of leaving. The poll-of-polls, averaging the last six polls in the U.K. vote, returned to 50/50, suggesting growing momentum for the "remain camp" in the June 23 referendum.
Concerns about a U.K. exit from the EU had sent stocks around the world tumbling in recent sessions, while bond yields dropped to record lows as investors feared a prolonged period of uncertainty and a hit to growth and trade in the world's fifth-largest economy.
Chapeau, Sir.
A 20% lead is approx 145,000 votes.
A 16% lead as per The Sun is just 115,000 votes.
That isn't much of a buffer.
But it's not like there aren't some other people on here with the opposite cognitive dissonance
It reminds me of how the Communists behaved before the collapse of East Germany, USSR etc.
The must paper over the cracks.
Some of us here are going to lose some cash. Oh well.
It is all a little desperate.It reminds me of how the Communists behaved before the collapse of East Germany, USSR etc.
The must paper over the cracks.
Nobody watches Sky News. Which is a shame, because it's often better than the BBC I find.
If they're backing Leave, that may be indicative of the result. [I still think Remain will win, but it's something to consider].
Mr. NorthWales, when polls put Leave ahead and the stock market declined, Sky ran it as a story. The next day, the stock market rose, and story was there none. Now it's rising and some polls (still basically 50/50) are better for Remain and it's being painted as caused by Remain 'winning'.
Warsi's so-called defection is utter tosh, yet it's got top billing.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3349435/Liverpool-defender-Martin-Skrtel-levels-club-legend-Jamie-Carragher-Premier-League-goal-roll-honour.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0KMk0kdO5i8
Interesting comment from John Rentoul (The Independent) saying it's now a competition between Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn to see who can do the most damage.
If the vote is to remain do you think that the views of 40% plus (if we are to believe the polls) of the electorate will suddenly change? I hate military metaphors in the discussion of politics but I'd say it would be a case of the battle is lost but the campaign goes on.
@FraserNelson: The best cartoons say - at a glance - what scribblers like me would struggle to say in 1000 words. By @mortenmorland https://t.co/pvqIIIpiBk
Leave just hit 4.4