Unnoticed, there's a big betting trend taking place on Betfair that in any other week would be worth several threads.
Donald Trump is currently last matched at 1.17 on the "next Republican nominee" market. There is good liquidity at 1.16. To quote the rules: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2016 Republican National Convention."
That means that serious punters think that there is a better than 6/1 chance that Donald Trump will be blocked by the Republican party establishment despite having won more votes than any other Republican Primary candidate and with an absolute majority of delegates.
Just extraordinary.
Blimey. I went in for £200 again at 1.06 - I think that was a good bet. 1.16 is an incredible price - this should be 1.03 at the most.
You're an experienced punter, if a price looks too good to be true there's usually a reason for it. I don't follow that market but the serious players on betfair are traders, as you know. You'll find better 1/6 shots elsewhere.
Health and RFK-type incidents apart, this is as close to a nailed-on result as you can get. A 16% return in two months is outstanding value. It is theoretically possible that Trump could be stopped by manipulating the rules. It is not politically possible. He hasn't done anything since winning the nomination that he hadn't done the likes of which before it. The current rules are clear: he has to be nominated (indeed, it'd be opening up a can of legal problems if he wasn't given how many delegates are bound in state law).
I agree with Pulpstar - this should be about a 1.02-1.03 shot.
FWIW, the Blair succession market was similar, with Brown consistently overpriced by a ridiculous amount. I can only think that it comes down to a lot of people seeing a mistake in the offing and thinking that the party will 'do something' to avoid it, without considering the political fundamentals.
'It seems to me that Remain have been desperate to make this about Farage from the beginning and have been frustrated by his relatively low profile during the campaign, a campaign led by Gove and Boris'
Spot on, they could then smear anyone that supported Leave as waycists.
There's that deliberate misspelling again.
Childish and very weird.
It captures the whining tone of the SJWs perfectly.
As someone with a speech impediment I don't find it perfectly amusing.
A very lukewarm response to my question. Ditto Rochdale. The poster is effing disgusting. Pure and simple.
The poster aims for a certain demographic. The fact that it can reach that demographic and receive a reaction of that's understandable or that's acceptable rather than that's disgusting shows how badly the current political classes are in understanding let alone representing that demographic.
I agree - the poster IS disgusting. But here is the difference between a Britain's First "disgusting" poster reviled by almost everyone and a UKIP "disgusting" poster that me and thee may find disgusting but millions do not.
I have my views. My morality. My judgement about right and wrong. I cannot impose my value and judgements upon others. So regardless of what I think about the poster, providing that its legal then its not up to me to ban it to protect the minds of others whose morality and judgement is different to my own.
Otherwise I'd be Mary Whitehouse.
There was nothing wrong with Mary Whitehouse. She reflected a moral group and used her pressure group to try and make things more decent (in her view). I struggle to think what she would have made of the Internet age, and popular mediums like the Daily Mail site.
There was a very great deal wrong with Mary Whitehouse and her ilk, namely their attempt to censor and bully the freedom of thought and expression out of existence.
Somebody I work with from the Remain campaign's ideal demographic (young female professional, high earner, inner London resident, always votes Labour) who's changed her mind repeatedly just told me how she voted.
Leave will win but Farage's poster will be its defining image, so the victory will be dark and horribly tainted. The big question though is why do it? Everything was going swimmingly for Leave with Gove and Boris in charge, so why did Farage feel the need to crash the party and pander to the crazies? It's almost as if he wants to lose. Or does he want to win but only if the forces of darkness inherit the victory? I'm struggling to fathom what's going on in his mind.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Mr. Pulpstar, you're a bit early for their race, you know.
Mr. Topping, that's not permanent. UK troops do not swear allegiance to the US or to NATO, but to the Queen.
Nor is NATO seeking to impose other, non-military responsibilities upon us, grabbing powers in other areas through deceit and undemocratic means.
The two situations are not remotely comparable.
Mr Dancer please allow me to quote you:
"British armed forces personnel are loyal to this country and recognise Her Majesty as commander-in-chief. You want them saluting Juncker and obeying foreign commanders on a permanent basis? It's a horrendous idea."
First of all they would absolutely salute Juncker if on parade. Second, you posited the horrendous idea of HMF being under foreign commanders on a permanent basis. Which they already are, as per my link.
Does NATO regulate on widget specifications? Don't think so. But that wasn't the point you were making.
Why should we allow our freedom to live where we like in the EU be sacrificed to in order to appease Mrs Duffy's distaste for neighbours of a certain type? Doesn't her freedom end where mine begins?
That's a classic irregular verb:
* I want to choose where I live
* She has distaste for certain neighbours
There's probably also
* Her freedom puts limits on mine - BAD! DIRTY! WRONG!
* My freedom is what I deserve; it's just me being myself - GOOD! THE UNIVERSE WORKING AS IT SHOULD! Never mind any effect on trash!
You don't get this "universal suffrage" thing, do you?
Oh, of course I accept that others have different priorities to me. I'm just surprised and disappointed how many nanny statists there are who sufficiently xenophobic that they are prepared to sacrifice their (and my) right to freedom of movement within the EU.
New poster, so please be gentle. I'm still undecided on how I'll vote (I've been wobbling drunkenly from one side to the other) but I find it inexplicable to suggest anyone should be swayed by either the murder of Jo Cox or whether or not they can bear to be on the same side as Nigel Farage. For the record I dislike Nigel Farage and his poster, but they do not define the case for Brexit.
Equally Im trying not to allow my repulsion over the horrible milking of Jo Cox's death to sway my attitude toward the case to stay in the EU, though Im becoming angrier by the day at how my intelligence is being insulted. The Remain case should be intellectual and factual. Unlike Brexit, they have the full resource of government and the big business, media and political establishments behind them. They should be easily persuading me out of my apprehension over Britain's direction in the EU, by appealing to my common sense. But the way the deification of Jo Cox is so blatantly being used to foster gut-emotion and guilt, and particularly toward swaying women (who are clearly seen as weak-minded and sentimental) is infuriating me as it goes on, day after relentless day.
I'm having to actively force myself to remember that the manner in which the campaign is being fought should not matter to my ultimate decision. I don't want anyone, least of all myself, to vote on an issue as vital as this, out of spite, or imposed guilt, or mawkish sentimentality or dog whistle accusations of racism or personal dislike.
If the polls are right and that is a question in itself, then the Remain recovery is probably due to Labour belatedly upping their game last week. Interesting the trio they have chosen for Tuesday night, seem to be seeking to build on that with the Mayor of London and Head of the T U C, but I have an inkling that Ruth Davidson will be the star of the show.
I'm expecting a YouGov tonight and a final one Wednesday night, but neither of those have been confirmed
I'd also expect an ORB tonight, but they may push it to later on this week, again no confirmation either way.
On a totally unrelated note, Leave is now out to to 3.8 this morning.
Poll in the offing?
I think it is folk in the City coming in this morning and turning on their computers and having a little dabble. I was going to post this last night and say that the Monday morning return to work run would likely bring quite a significant trend to remain.
Sorry campers- but I got caught up in the golf.
Wall to wall Remain ads are back in Canary Wharf this morning as well.
Suspect they'll be run daily until polling day now.
I'm increasingly thinking that the betting markets are being driven by London centric, city, predominantly wealthy punters having a little dabble as they flip between screens. If you are a London city worker, it is almost unthinkable to consider Brexit, or that it could possibly happen. All your colleagues are remain, you are in London, the most open capital in the world...so the betting markets, even Brexit at close to 3-1 on, just look good value because the alternative is unthinkable.
But one leaflet in three months is still sub-local election activity: hardly indicative of a 70%+ turnout.
On a related note, with either side have targetted GOTV operations? I don't really see how they can. I'm expecting a couple of universal auto-generated text messages on the day and that'll be it.
Hell yes. We've been canvassing nearly every day for a month and have a full-scale GOTV operation for those who seemed to be leaning Remain - I'm signed up from 10am to 9pm, and I'm by no means the most enthusiastic.
But one leaflet in three months is still sub-local election activity: hardly indicative of a 70%+ turnout.
On a related note, with either side have targetted GOTV operations? I don't really see how they can. I'm expecting a couple of universal auto-generated text messages on the day and that'll be it.
Hell yes. We've been canvassing nearly every day for a month and have a full-scale GOTV operation for those who seemed to be leaning Remain - I'm signed up from 10am to 9pm, and I'm by no means the most enthusiastic.
But that's London - not at all sure it's general.
Would more marginal/competitive areas in GE's have a stronger ground game in this referendum, as there is more party infrastructure in place already? Even if a vote in some rural safe seat is worth the same as an ultra marginal now in the EUref; after years of non-activity, finding activists to work the area must be difficult.
I agree with your sentiments. This is a vote on whether we're integrated more or leave the EU entirely, not on whether Farage is someone you like. The use of Jo Cox's murder for campaigning is... less than pleasant.
I don't see how people don't get that 'defections' make no sense in the context of a single issue referendum.
Personally, I don't understand how anyone can't see how people don't get that 'defections' make no sense in the context of a single issue referendum.
I can see how they wouldn't get it if they're extremely dense. But I've been pleasantly surprised how many in this campaign have ignored 'optics' in favour of logic. In party politics, it's fairly natural that at times politicians will leave a party where they no longer feel at home. In a binary referendum, you believe something or you don't. If your considered view (and I think if anyone can be expected to have a considered view it's a professional politician) is that Britain is better off outside (or indeed inside) the EU, you would not abandon that view because of the quality of the campaign. You might withdraw from that campaign, or even actively condemn it, but you wouldn't suddenly think being in the EU for another 50 years is a whizzbang idea just because of what you believe to be misquoted statistics or racist posters. The whole concept doesn't bear more than 2 minutes thought.
Leave will win but Farage's poster will be its defining image, so the victory will be dark and horribly tainted. The big question though is why do it? Everything was going swimmingly for Leave with Gove and Boris in charge, so why did Farage feel the need to crash the party and pander to the crazies? It's almost as if he wants to lose. Or does he want to win but only if the forces of darkness inherit the victory? I'm struggling to fathom what's going on in his mind.
Because he has a tremendous ego. He couldn't care less if he wins or loses, he's got people talking about him so that's what matters. It's like dealing with a toddler.
If the polls are right and that is a question in itself, then the Remain recovery is probably due to Labour belatedly upping their game last week. Interesting the trio they have chosen for Tuesday night, seem to be seeking to build on that with the Mayor of London and Head of the T U C, but I have an inkling that Ruth Davidson will be the star of the show.
Hope Khan and Boris dont turn it into a London centric debate - while you were mayor etc etc
Mr. Topping, two points: Firstly, it'd be news to me that soldiers in the British army are permanently under the command of NATO and loyal to that institution rather than the UK. Secondly, actually your 'widget' point is one I did make. NATO is all about military co-operation. It has no aspiration of superstate empire-building, unlike the EU. That is a fundamental difference.
But one leaflet in three months is still sub-local election activity: hardly indicative of a 70%+ turnout.
On a related note, with either side have targetted GOTV operations? I don't really see how they can. I'm expecting a couple of universal auto-generated text messages on the day and that'll be it.
Hell yes. We've been canvassing nearly every day for a month and have a full-scale GOTV operation for those who seemed to be leaning Remain - I'm signed up from 10am to 9pm, and I'm by no means the most enthusiastic.
Leave will win but Farage's poster will be its defining image, so the victory will be dark and horribly tainted. The big question though is why do it? Everything was going swimmingly for Leave with Gove and Boris in charge, so why did Farage feel the need to crash the party and pander to the crazies? It's almost as if he wants to lose. Or does he want to win but only if the forces of darkness inherit the victory? I'm struggling to fathom what's going on in his mind.
My guess is that he is most concerned about Ukip and it's level of support and not winning the referendum.
Remain has a London mayor and a Scotswoman, which may not necessarily help them make the case to, say, middle England (or 'Little England' as they may term it). Who's the third Remain debater?
Thank you Mr Dancer. I hope Im getting this 'reply to quote' business right. One of the things thats always appealed to me about this board isn't just the intelligence of the discourse, but the civility that usually manages to overcome any personal aggression. Which is rare online, isn't it?
I agree with your sentiments. This is a vote on whether we're integrated more or leave the EU entirely, not on whether Farage is someone you like. The use of Jo Cox's murder for campaigning is... less than pleasant.
Interesting reading the Ashcroft focus groups. Lots of people seem genuinely undecided, can't make up their minds one way or the other etc.
Whenever I genuinely don't know what to do I most often do nothing.
It has seen me home and dry in a variety of situations and seems like a natural human instinct to me.
I would have thought quite a lot of undecided's may take the' do nothing' and stay at home option come Thursday. The poor weather forecasted for the day could well help to reinforce that.
Given that Remain seem to be relying on the undecideds breaking heavily for them I would have thought human nature might favour Leave on the day.
Remain has a London mayor and a Scotswoman, which may not necessarily help them make the case to, say, middle England (or 'Little England' as they may term it). Who's the third Remain debater?
Francis O' Grady to appeal to the English Labour voter
I think a supporter of a campaign which has talked about war if we vote to LEAVE, has threatened pensioners with cuts to their pensions if we vote to LEAVE and which has threatened to slash public spending if we vote to LEAVE needs to re-adjust his perception of "squalid".
Cameron and Osborne have threatened, cajoled, intimidated and harassed the people of Britain all to save their worthless political hides. They have been aided by international groups who are terrified that if we vote to leave the EU project, other countries will follow and the whole edifice, from which they have prospered, will collapse around them.
Let's talk about immigration then - if it reaches a point where two jobless Lithuanians would rather sleep rough under the A13 than be taken home at the tax payers' expense we have a problem but the problem is not immigration per se.
It is to my mind a philosophical failure - instead of actively investing in Eastern Europe to promote jobs and rebuild and restructure the post-Communist economies after 1989 which might have impoverished us slightly in the short term but would have paid dividends in the longer term, we frittered away our "Peace Dividend" on tax cuts for ourselves.
We created in areas like Southern England and Germany areas of such overwhelming economic attraction they have pulled in people in such numbers that in order for these areas to maintain their prosperity they need even more people as cheap labour. That has impoverished many other areas of Europe and has now come back to us in terms of social problems.
It's absurd, short-termist and ultimately doomed to failure.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Exactly. My wife has finally opted for Leave, but if she voted Remain, that would be her business.
New poster, so please be gentle. I'm still undecided on how I'll vote (I've been wobbling drunkenly from one side to the other) but I find it inexplicable to suggest anyone should be swayed by either the murder of Jo Cox or whether or not they can bear to be on the same side as Nigel Farage. For the record I dislike Nigel Farage and his poster, but they do not define the case for Brexit.
Equally Im trying not to allow my repulsion over the horrible milking of Jo Cox's death to sway my attitude toward the case to stay in the EU, though Im becoming angrier by the day at how my intelligence is being insulted. The Remain case should be intellectual and factual. Unlike Brexit, they have the full resource of government and the big business, media and political establishments behind them. They should be easily persuading me out of my apprehension over Britain's direction in the EU, by appealing to my common sense. But the way the deification of Jo Cox is so blatantly being used to foster gut-emotion and guilt, and particularly toward swaying women (who are clearly seen as weak-minded and sentimental) is infuriating me as it goes on, day after relentless day.
I'm having to actively force myself to remember that the manner in which the campaign is being fought should not matter to my ultimate decision. I don't want anyone, least of all myself, to vote on an issue as vital as this, out of spite, or imposed guilt, or mawkish sentimentality or dog whistle accusations of racism or personal dislike.
Excellent first post, Mr Dog - hope you'll share more thoughts.
I'm female, and started off as Reluctant Remain - and then shifted to Firm Leave. The notion, as you so pithily phrase it, regarding women voters made me metaphorically punch the air with delight.
It's so patronising and insulting. What I find most reprehensible is the assumption that Leave voters are stupid, witless and gullible - and that's before the heaps of other insults. When any campaign presumes that half the population are malign, bigoted cretins - it's simply not bothering to engage.
Leave will win but Farage's poster will be its defining image, so the victory will be dark and horribly tainted. The big question though is why do it? Everything was going swimmingly for Leave with Gove and Boris in charge, so why did Farage feel the need to crash the party and pander to the crazies? It's almost as if he wants to lose. Or does he want to win but only if the forces of darkness inherit the victory? I'm struggling to fathom what's going on in his mind.
Because he has a tremendous ego. He couldn't care less if he wins or loses, he's got people talking about him so that's what matters. It's like dealing with a toddler.
Anybody who thinks that Nigel doesn't care about this outcome is irrational and deluded. This marks 20 years work, he'll never get another chance. You don't like him, fine, to say he doesn't care about the outcome is risible.
If I ever wondered what the conversation was like in courts of the 18th century ancien regime I need look no further than PB this morning. Good grief.
I do want to pick up on Southam's point about crocodile tears from Tory voters. Deficit reduction is key for me. I think Osborne has been too slow, and we're increasingly paying the price for that slowness.
However, only stupid people think that Brexit wouldn't be a shock to the UK's financial system. Given that, only stupid people would think that the appropriate response would be Osborne's punishment budget. A mild fiscal stimulus would be better. Pragmatism over ideology if you will.
That said, I think Southam is one of the few remainers on here who 'gets' it.
rcs1000 pointed out (and I agree) that our economy isn't in great shape. It's a shame we're having a referendum now. Brown's maladministration and Osborne's caution have done us few favours.
Finally, and I think I'm going to bow out after this (there are only so many times you can take people masking their own self-interest while shrieking "racism"), I'm simply going to assert that trying to win the argument based on moral taint is daft. That's not to say it doesn't work, it might, see my next paragraph
Every time I go to the ballot box, I'm aware that I'm in the virtual company of bigots of every stripe, morons, sheeple and ignoramuses. To require moral purity before voting for or against a cause is hilariously confused thinking.
PS Just read stodge's post. Superb. Kudos to you sir.
It seems to me that Remain have been desperate to make this about Farage from the beginning and have been frustrated by his relatively low profile during the campaign, a campaign led by Gove and Boris. Their last final attempt to bring him centre stage is this poster, a poster which shows a tiny proportion, not even 1%, of the net migration that remainers want to continue coming into this country indefinitely.
Those of a certain mindset used to lament that they could not get the staff anymore. Inside the EU that is not true and the local oiks can be safely ignored. Similarly, the tradesmen get put back in their place, thankful for what work they can get and their wages diminished. And it is pretty much impossible to get a council house in the south of England as larger and newly arrived families jump the queue. But that is not really a problem for the ABs either is it?
The greedy and selfish haves may prevail with their moral blackmail and blatant self interest on Thursday but I hope not.
Hear hear!
Yep, Charles, you'll be absolutely fine post-Brexit. Join the gang. DavidL's a member too, along with Topping, Alastair Meeks and a few others on here. We don't have to worry about further public services cuts and possible tax hikes. We'll get along just fine. And, as an added bonus, millions of Turks will not descend upon us in the next few years.
I believe a lot of our fellow country men and women dont do well out of the current settlement. This is a chance to change that. That is what drovecmy vote - as you said, I'll be just fine personally
But in saying Hear, Hear to DavidL's post you clearly believe that those who believe Remain is the best option are doing so only for selfish reasons. Can you explain how that works?
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens......I don't know how the citizenship thing works, but I would not want to impose on my wife the fear that she would be forced to renounce her country of birth to take citizenship here. That alone makes it impossible for me to consider Brexit.
I also can't get my head around ethnic minorities who are pro Brexit. OK- my local Piazza in Fiesole is swamped by swarms of dippy Brits at the minute, very frustrating....but I would feel very hypocritical to want to stop them coming here.
But one leaflet in three months is still sub-local election activity: hardly indicative of a 70%+ turnout.
On a related note, with either side have targetted GOTV operations? I don't really see how they can. I'm expecting a couple of universal auto-generated text messages on the day and that'll be it.
Hell yes. We've been canvassing nearly every day for a month and have a full-scale GOTV operation for those who seemed to be leaning Remain - I'm signed up from 10am to 9pm, and I'm by no means the most enthusiastic.
But that's London - not at all sure it's general.
Isn't Nick Palmer Nottingham based?
Not at the moment. Ex-MPs generally need to work in London - nearly all the jobs for which the experience is relevant are near Westminster - so I took a job as Director of Policy with an animal welfare NGO and I'm now freelance and doing contract work for various NGOs. I still have more friends in Nottingham than in London and go up there whenever I can - one of my possible futures is to settle back there and for starters I'm on the approved panel for the County election next year.
So I'm actually a member of Islington North at the moment, but familiar with what's happening in Broxtowe. In general, political activity is far higher in London. 10% of the entire electorate in my area are actually Labour Party members, and a routine ward canvass will produce a dozen enthusiasts, swelling to hundreds at election time. Contact rates on the strongrest areas are over 80%. In Broxtowe, by contrast, I would often canvass on my own or with one other person, rising at election time to half a dozen per session.
To respond to Paristonda - that's why organisational levels aren't always correlated with marginality. Islington is one of the most well-organised Labour areas in the country (the Tory vote is in the mid-teens), but it's usually a machine producing helpers for elsewhere. At the Mayoral election and in the referendum, all votes count equally, so we're having fun mobilising the home vote.
"I'd argue that HE hasn't won any seats and is in serious danger of actually losing Leave the referendum."
Of course you would, presumably because you seem to think in a simple linear process. You would probably have been an aide to Field Marshal Haig in 1916, when his solution to the carnage of thefirst day of the Somme was not to think laterally, but to just repeat the mistake in the hope of a different outcome
You'd argue black was white if you thought it supported your position, however all that reveals is that you have a closed mind to the facts, evidenced from the outcomes of past examples of the same faux outrage against Farage.
Farage runs rings around the moribund political thinking of the establishment and the commentariat in this country, and to be honest he doesn't have to try very hard.
That's a lot of words to say 'meh, didn't really want your stinking seats anyway.'
I also can't get my head around ethnic minorities who are pro Brexit.
Pretty obvious, if you're working class you have not experienced the benefits of immigration. This applies to all working class people, not just white ones.
Remain has a London mayor and a Scotswoman, which may not necessarily help them make the case to, say, middle England (or 'Little England' as they may term it). Who's the third Remain debater?
If I ever wondered what the conversation was like in courts of the 18th century ancien regime I need look no further than PB this morning. Good grief.
I do want to pick up on Southam's point about crocodile tears from Tory voters. Deficit reduction is key for me. I think Osborne has been too slow, and we're increasingly paying the price for that slowness.
However, only stupid people think that Brexit wouldn't be a shock to the UK's financial system. Given that, only stupid people would think that the appropriate response would be Osborne's punishment budget. A mild fiscal stimulus would be better. Pragmatism over ideology if you will.
That said, I think Southam is one of the few remainers on here who 'gets' it.
rcs1000 pointed out (and I agree) that our economy isn't in great shape. It's a shame we're having a referendum now. Brown's maladministration and Osborne's caution have done us few favours.
Finally, and I think I'm going to bow out after this (there are only so many times you can take people masking their own self-interest while shrieking "racism"), I'm simply going to assert that trying to win the argument based on moral taint is daft. That's not to say it doesn't work, it might, see my next paragraph
Every time I go to the ballot box, I'm aware that I'm in the virtual company of bigots of every stripe, morons, sheeple and ignoramuses. To require moral purity before voting for or against a cause is hilariously confused thinking.
PS Just read stodge's post. Superb. Kudos to you sir.
Why is it confused? And why do you find such confusion hilarious? There are, after all, other approaches to life than sordid materialism.
Leave will win but Farage's poster will be its defining image, so the victory will be dark and horribly tainted. The big question though is why do it? Everything was going swimmingly for Leave with Gove and Boris in charge, so why did Farage feel the need to crash the party and pander to the crazies? It's almost as if he wants to lose. Or does he want to win but only if the forces of darkness inherit the victory? I'm struggling to fathom what's going on in his mind.
Because he has a tremendous ego. He couldn't care less if he wins or loses, he's got people talking about him so that's what matters. It's like dealing with a toddler.
Anybody who thinks that Nigel doesn't care about this outcome is irrational and deluded. This marks 20 years work, he'll never get another chance. You don't like him, fine, to say he doesn't care about the outcome is risible.
We agree for once. If Brexit win this is Farage's victory. If it wasn't for him we wouldn't be having this referendum
Leave will win but Farage's poster will be its defining image, so the victory will be dark and horribly tainted. The big question though is why do it? Everything was going swimmingly for Leave with Gove and Boris in charge, so why did Farage feel the need to crash the party and pander to the crazies? It's almost as if he wants to lose. Or does he want to win but only if the forces of darkness inherit the victory? I'm struggling to fathom what's going on in his mind.
Agree with your post except the first three words. Remain in at 1/4 on at some bookies. Survation the only pollster so far whose fieldwork was wholly conducted after the Cox murder show a 4 point Remain lead. I expect the remaining polls to confirm a decisive swing to Remain. Cameron will escape ever the lucky general, damaged but still standing.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens...
@JeremyCliffe: Britain has veto over Turkish EU membership. If it leaves & opts for Norway model (conceivable) will keep freedom of movement but lose veto.
@JeremyCliffe: In other words, if you're terrified about loads of Turks coming to Britain you should be a die-hard Remain supporter.
Interesting panel. A trades unionist, Labour mayor of London and Scottish Conservative. Two of those are from areas that are generally pro-Remain and may not cut through to England/Wales as well. O'Grady's performance might be the most important.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Exactly. My wife has finally opted for Leave, but if she voted Remain, that would be her business.
I'd no idea how my husband voted. We never asked each other.
It seems to me that Remain have been desperate to make this about Farage from the beginning and have been frustrated by his relatively low profile during the campaign, a campaign led by Gove and Boris. Their last final attempt to bring him centre stage is this poster, a poster which shows a tiny proportion, not even 1%, of the net migration that remainers want to continue coming into this country indefinitely.
Those of a certain mindset used to lament that they could not get the staff anymore. Inside the EU that is not true and the local oiks can be safely ignored. Similarly, the tradesmen get put back in their place, thankful for what work they can get and their wages diminished. And it is pretty much impossible to get a council house in the south of England as larger and newly arrived families jump the queue. But that is not really a problem for the ABs either is it?
The greedy and selfish haves may prevail with their moral blackmail and blatant self interest on Thursday but I hope not.
Hear hear!
Yep, Charles, you'll be absolutely fine post-Brexit. Join the gang. DavidL's a member too, along with Topping, Alastair Meeks and a few others on here. We don't have to worry about further public services cuts and possible tax hikes. We'll get along just fine. And, as an added bonus, millions of Turks will not descend upon us in the next few years.
I believe a lot of our fellow country men and women dont do well out of the current settlement. This is a chance to change that. That is what drovecmy vote - as you said, I'll be just fine personally
But in saying Hear, Hear to DavidL's post you clearly believe that those who believe Remain is the best option are doing so only for selfish reasons. Can you explain how that works?
DavidL's post doesn';t say that.
"The greedy and selfish haves may prevail with their moral blackmail and blatant self interest on Thursday but I hope not"
I don't see how people don't get that 'defections' make no sense in the context of a single issue referendum.
Personally, I don't understand how anyone can't see how people don't get that 'defections' make no sense in the context of a single issue referendum.
I can see how they wouldn't get it if they're extremely dense. But I've been pleasantly surprised how many in this campaign have ignored 'optics' in favour of logic. In party politics, it's fairly natural that at times politicians will leave a party where they no longer feel at home. In a binary referendum, you believe something or you don't. If your considered view (and I think if anyone can be expected to have a considered view it's a professional politician) is that Britain is better off outside (or indeed inside) the EU, you would not abandon that view because of the quality of the campaign. You might withdraw from that campaign, or even actively condemn it, but you wouldn't suddenly think being in the EU for another 50 years is a whizzbang idea just because of what you believe to be misquoted statistics or racist posters. The whole concept doesn't bear more than 2 minutes thought.
Any rational person would base their decisions on information they receive. It's perfectly possible that, after considering additional evidence, a logical thinker might change their opinion on the best course of action.
I think a supporter of a campaign which has talked about war if we vote to LEAVE, has threatened pensioners with cuts to their pensions if we vote to LEAVE and which has threatened to slash public spending if we vote to LEAVE needs to re-adjust his perception of "squalid".
Cameron and Osborne have threatened, cajoled, intimidated and harassed the people of Britain all to save their worthless political hides. They have been aided by international groups who are terrified that if we vote to leave the EU project, other countries will follow and the whole edifice, from which they have prospered, will collapse around them.
Let's talk about immigration then - if it reaches a point where two jobless Lithuanians would rather sleep rough under the A13 than be taken home at the tax payers' expense we have a problem but the problem is not immigration per se.
It is to my mind a philosophical failure - instead of actively investing in Eastern Europe to promote jobs and rebuild and restructure the post-Communist economies after 1989 which might have impoverished us slightly in the short term but would have paid dividends in the longer term, we frittered away our "Peace Dividend" on tax cuts for ourselves.
We created in areas like Southern England and Germany areas of such overwhelming economic attraction they have pulled in people in such numbers that in order for these areas to maintain their prosperity they need even more people as cheap labour. That has impoverished many other areas of Europe and has now come back to us in terms of social problems.
It's absurd, short-termist and ultimately doomed to failure.
'I think a supporter of a campaign which has talked about war if we vote to LEAVE, has threatened pensioners with cuts to their pensions if we vote to LEAVE and which has threatened to slash public spending if we vote to LEAVE needs to re-adjust his perception of "squalid".
Cameron and Osborne have threatened, cajoled, intimidated and harassed the people of Britain all to save their worthless political hides. They have been aided by international groups who are terrified that if we vote to leave the EU project, other countries will follow and the whole edifice, from which they have prospered, will collapse around them.
Let's talk about immigration then - if it reaches a point where two jobless Lithuanians would rather sleep rough under the A13 than be taken home at the tax payers' expense we have a problem but the problem is not immigration per se.
It is to my mind a philosophical failure - instead of actively investing in Eastern Europe to promote jobs and rebuild and restructure the post-Communist economies after 1989 which might have impoverished us slightly in the short term but would have paid dividends in the longer term, we frittered away our "Peace Dividend" on tax cuts for ourselves.
We created in areas like Southern England and Germany areas of such overwhelming economic attraction they have pulled in people in such numbers that in order for these areas to maintain their prosperity they need even more people as cheap labour. That has impoverished many other areas of Europe and has now come back to us in terms of social problems.
It's absurd, short-termist and ultimately doomed to failure.
Mr. Topping, two points: Firstly, it'd be news to me that soldiers in the British army are permanently under the command of NATO and loyal to that institution rather than the UK. Secondly, actually your 'widget' point is one I did make. NATO is all about military co-operation. It has no aspiration of superstate empire-building, unlike the EU. That is a fundamental difference.
Not sure what you mean by "loyal to that institution"? On NATO operations, HMF, all of whom will have sworn loyalty to HMQ, are always and everywhere under NATO command. NATO is under command of a foreigner.
But this is all moot anyway as, regardless of the likelihood or otherwise of an EU army, and its format, defence matters remain under UK sovereignty.
Oh and of course there is a different discussion to be had about superstates, etc but that didn't feature in your original comment.
Remain has a London mayor and a Scotswoman, which may not necessarily help them make the case to, say, middle England (or 'Little England' as they may term it). Who's the third Remain debater?
Francis O' Grady to appeal to the English Labour voter
An interesting and perhaps "brave" decision in the 6 choices. No white English left wing male out of the 6, yet they probably represent 35% of the left wing REMAIN vote that REMAIN needs to win over. An Alan Johnson type would have made more sense.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens......I don't know how the citizenship thing works, but I would not want to impose on my wife the fear that she would be forced to renounce her country of birth to take citizenship here. That alone makes it impossible for me to consider Brexit.
I also can't get my head around ethnic minorities who are pro Brexit. OK- my local Piazza in Fiesole is swamped by swarms of dippy Brits at the minute, very frustrating....but I would feel very hypocritical to want to stop them coming here.
Anyway, off my run up Fiesole hill.
Maybe you should learn "how the citizenship thing works" before Thursday or at least before you become so closed minded?
Somebody I work with from the Remain campaign's ideal demographic (young female professional, high earner, inner London resident, always votes Labour) who's changed her mind repeatedly just told me how she voted.
It was Leave
Anecdote Alert .
Met a young professional woman high earner inner London professional . She told me she works with an obsessed Leaver who is such a political geek he even posts on a political website . To get him off her back and let her concentrate on her job she told him she had already voted Leave despite the fact she does not have a postal vote .and will be voting Remain on Thursday .
Tyson. Merkel offers a million Muslim immigrants a place in Germany, a few years later they have German passports and a right to live next door to Mrs Duffy. The EU refuses to enforce its own external borders. So the EU is an issue, a massive issue, in Middle-Eastern migration to the UK. This country's downtrodden WWC plebs are bright enough to see this. Not a judgment call but a statement of the obvious.
FWIW I think we should encourage immigration but to a numerical limit effected by a points system - and this is not possible within the EU.
Why should we allow our freedom to live where we like in the EU be sacrificed to in order to appease Mrs Duffy's distaste for neighbours of a certain type? Doesn't her freedom end where mine begins?
Have you, Mr FE ever been to Rochdale? I lived there in the early 60’s and still go occasionaly. It’s a very different town to what it was. The architecture is a bit better, the town hall is clean, and even more impressive, but the people are very different.
And, just to be clear, I’m voting Remain.
I'm not sure how your comment relates to my point, which was that would I resent the curtailment of my freedom to live where I like in the EU in order to appease the sensibilities of those who would prefer neighbours of a certain type.
I’m saying, Mr FE, that Mrs D, assuming she's a born & bred Rochdalian, has seen the “typical;” population of her home town change enormously. You and I may wish to choose to live elsewhere in the EU, but that’s our choice, and when we do, we have to remember that some of our new neighbours may not welcome change.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens......I don't know how the citizenship thing works, but I would not want to impose on my wife the fear that she would be forced to renounce her country of birth to take citizenship here. That alone makes it impossible for me to consider Brexit.
I also can't get my head around ethnic minorities who are pro Brexit. OK- my local Piazza in Fiesole is swamped by swarms of dippy Brits at the minute, very frustrating....but I would feel very hypocritical to want to stop them coming here.
Anyway, off my run up Fiesole hill.
Not all ethnic minorities are from EU countries. There is quite a bit of resentment at what is seen as a racist immigration policy - EU citizens can just walk in, others have to go through hoops, qualify and pay for a visa, pay the NHS subsidy, transfer to a UK driving licence etc. It's one rule for EU 'foreigners', another for 'foreigners' from outside, some from countries with longstanding links with Great Britain, including standing side by side with us in two world wars.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens...
My wife is Estonian (ethnically Russian).
She came out for Leave yesterday.
And your point is.....?
My wife is happy being an Italian. She is a proud Italian. Unlike your wife who can vote presumably, my wife cannot. She married me when the rules were we could move through the EU and marry who we wanted without having to renounce our country of citizenship. Brexit wants to changes the rules. Bit unfair for those people who are stuck in long term relationships.
If my wife renounces her Italian citizenship the implications for her in Italy are really quite profound in respect to inheritance and tax, and all things I wouldn't want to bore you with, but are really fundamentally important to her.
It is to my mind a philosophical failure - instead of actively investing in Eastern Europe to promote jobs and rebuild and restructure the post-Communist economies after 1989 which might have impoverished us slightly in the short term but would have paid dividends in the longer term, we frittered away our "Peace Dividend" on tax cuts for ourselves.
We created in areas like Southern England and Germany areas of such overwhelming economic attraction they have pulled in people in such numbers that in order for these areas to maintain their prosperity they need even more people as cheap labour. That has impoverished many other areas of Europe and has now come back to us in terms of social problems.
It's absurd, short-termist and ultimately doomed to failure.
And yet you bleat on about a poster..
I was astonished by the figure of Lithuania losing a third of its population since joining the EU.
With the UK debate focussed on immigration we ignore the effects on emigration on poorer countries.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Exactly. My wife has finally opted for Leave, but if she voted Remain, that would be her business.
I'd no idea how my husband voted. We never asked each other.
I think your husband probably knows who you support unless he is blind, deaf and dumb, in which case I am sincerely sorry.
Remain has a London mayor and a Scotswoman, which may not necessarily help them make the case to, say, middle England (or 'Little England' as they may term it). Who's the third Remain debater?
Remain appealing to their core vote in their strongest areas. Sounds like the tactic of a campaign that thinks it is struggling.
Tyson. Merkel offers a million Muslim immigrants a place in Germany, a few years later they have German passports and a right to live next door to Mrs Duffy. The EU refuses to enforce its own external borders. So the EU is an issue, a massive issue, in Middle-Eastern migration to the UK. This country's downtrodden WWC plebs are bright enough to see this. Not a judgment call but a statement of the obvious.
FWIW I think we should encourage immigration but to a numerical limit effected by a points system - and this is not possible within the EU.
Why should we allow our freedom to live where we like in the EU be sacrificed to in order to appease Mrs Duffy's distaste for neighbours of a certain type? Doesn't her freedom end where mine begins?
Have you, Mr FE ever been to Rochdale? I lived there in the early 60’s and still go occasionaly. It’s a very different town to what it was. The architecture is a bit better, the town hall is clean, and even more impressive, but the people are very different.
And, just to be clear, I’m voting Remain.
I'm not sure how your comment relates to my point, which was that would I resent the curtailment of my freedom to live where I like in the EU in order to appease the sensibilities of those who would prefer neighbours of a certain type.
I’m saying, Mr FE, that Mrs D, assuming she's a born & bred Rochdalian, has seen the “typical;” population of her home town change enormously. You and I may wish to choose to live elsewhere in the EU, but that’s our choice, and when we do, we have to remember that some of our new neighbours may not welcome change.
Which, I suppose, explains why the old tend to favour Leave while the young tend towards Remain. It's the desire of the old for stability versus the desire of the young for opportunity.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens...
My wife is Estonian (ethnically Russian).
She came out for Leave yesterday.
And your point is.....?
My wife is happy being an Italian. She is a proud Italian. Unlike your wife who can vote presumably, my wife cannot. She married me when the rules were we could move through the EU and marry who we wanted without having to renounce our country of citizenship. Brexit wants to changes the rules. Bit unfair for those people who are stuck in long term relationships.
If my wife renounces her Italian citizenship the implications for her in Italy are really quite profound in respect to inheritance and tax, and all things I wouldn't want to bore you with, but are really fundamentally important to her.
Bullshit. Post Brexit there will be zero obligation on your wife to renounce her country of citizenship. If you knew "how this citizenship thing works" you'd know that.
Mr. Rentool, yes and no. Getting out the vote matters more in a referendum, but I do think it's interesting there's seemingly not a focus on floating voters.
If I ever wondered what the conversation was like in courts of the 18th century ancien regime I need look no further than PB this morning. Good grief.
I do want to pick up on Southam's point about crocodile tears from Tory voters. Deficit reduction is key for me. I think Osborne has been too slow, and we're increasingly paying the price for that slowness.
Every time I go to the ballot box, I'm aware that I'm in the virtual company of bigots of every stripe, morons, sheeple and ignoramuses. To require moral purity before voting for or against a cause is hilariously confused thinking.
PS Just read stodge's post. Superb. Kudos to you sir.
Why is it confused? And why do you find such confusion hilarious? There are, after all, other approaches to life than sordid materialism.
It's confused because it means that anybody who actually cleaves to that line of thinking in real life would be completely paralysed. I have no idea who you vote for, or even whether you vote at all, so I'll have to pluck some examples from thin air.
There are still people in the local Conservative club who will blank me because of my identity. They have overt dislike and contempt for me. I think they're stupid and biased. Didn't stop me voting Tory last GE.
If you vote Labour, you're in the company of people who think homosexuality is flat out wrong, and are anti-semitic to boot (that also applies to Tories ofc). The Lib Dems have long standing issues with their treatment of women.
There's broad agreement that Remain's weakest point in this campaign is immigration. However, like a dog returning to its vomit, they just can't leave it alone. They've broken Godwin's law. They need to go back to frightening people over the economy.
On the infamous poster. I road tested it with two twenty-somethings (daughter & bf). They didn't get it. They're not experts on Nazi iconography. They didn't even know about the famous Saatchi ad. Why would they? For them, it was a great big queue of people. They thought it was a weak advert.
In terms of sordid materialism, in my view that's what we're hearing from Remain. Economic stats. Employment stats. Money, money, money. The Mrs Duffy's of this world just don't think like that. It's a shame her vote in this referendum carries as much weight as the wealthier, better educated people who are doing very nicely thanks so much.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens...
My wife is Estonian (ethnically Russian).
She came out for Leave yesterday.
And your point is.....?
My wife is happy being an Italian. She is a proud Italian. Unlike your wife who can vote presumably, my wife cannot. She married me when the rules were we could move through the EU and marry who we wanted without having to renounce our country of citizenship. Brexit wants to changes the rules. Bit unfair for those people who are stuck in long term relationships.
If my wife renounces her Italian citizenship the implications for her in Italy are really quite profound in respect to inheritance and tax, and all things I wouldn't want to bore you with, but are really fundamentally important to her.
My point is that more non-native (for want of a better word) voters will vote Leave than you would hope.
My wife can't vote, actually - she's one of these people who doesn't vote normally because "they're all the same", so she's never bothered to get British citizenship. But if she's at all typical of those who think "they're all the same"...
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens...
My wife is Estonian (ethnically Russian).
She came out for Leave yesterday.
And your point is.....?
My wife is happy being an Italian. She is a proud Italian. Unlike your wife who can vote presumably, my wife cannot. She married me when the rules were we could move through the EU and marry who we wanted without having to renounce our country of citizenship. Brexit wants to changes the rules. Bit unfair for those people who are stuck in long term relationships.
If my wife renounces her Italian citizenship the implications for her in Italy are really quite profound in respect to inheritance and tax, and all things I wouldn't want to bore you with, but are really fundamentally important to her.
Bullshit. Post Brexit there will be zero obligation on your wife to renounce her country of citizenship. If you knew "how this citizenship thing works" you'd know that.
OK- we need to look into it then in the event of a Brexit. To be honest though, we never thought we have to look at the citizenship stuff until this cursed referendum turned up.
New poster, so please be gentle. I'm still undecided on how I'll vote (I've been wobbling drunkenly from one side to the other) but I find it inexplicable to suggest anyone should be swayed by either the murder of Jo Cox or whether or not they can bear to be on the same side as Nigel Farage. For the record I dislike Nigel Farage and his poster, but they do not define the case for Brexit.
I'm having to actively force myself to remember that the manner in which the campaign is being fought should not matter to my ultimate decision. I don't want anyone, least of all myself, to vote on an issue as vital as this, out of spite, or imposed guilt, or mawkish sentimentality or dog whistle accusations of racism or personal dislike.
An excellent opening post, spoilthedog and welcome along to the madhouse.
This board is a microcosm of modern debate - generally well-mannered, civil and with a huge range of knowledge and perspectives. I have learnt a lot passively from reading the posts of lawyers, engineers, scientists and the gamut of other professional and non-professional people who post here and enrich the site.
Yet, debate is also about passion and intensity and believing in the cause and yes at times the price of that passion is a deterioration in civility but the anger is a part of us and expressing it is part of what makes us human. We anger, we move on, we apologise or we don't.
My response to your post would be that we are all able (indeed far more so than we have ever been) to do our own research and our own thinking, Browse, read, listen and think would be my advice. Get as many viewpoints as you can and think about them.
Ultimately while there is right and left, there is no right and wrong on this one. Neither LEAVE nor REMAIN has the monopoly of truth or wisdom.
Vote Leave are scarcely better than Nigel Farage. Their posters blare "Turkey is joining the EU", but while finding themselves without the space to explain what they mean by this, they find the space to include "(population 76 million)". When showing maps of applicant countries, they highlight Iraq and Syria.
Vote Leave are merely the lace curtain version of Nigel Farage. They are following his strategy. If Leave wins, it will do so on his terms and it will be his victory.
Do you think it's legitimate to campaign against free movement of people, and highlight the possible extension of this right to future EU applicant states, or not?
If so, how would you do it?
a) Yes I do think it's legitimate.
b) Not by telling straightforward untruths to stir up fear of immigrants.
If I were opposed to membership of the EU I would be unutterably ashamed of how this campaign had been fought by the Leave campaign. I'm incredibly disappointed that so few Leave supporters can see just how disgraceful this campaign has been.
Yeah, but you'd have preferred them to meekly roll over and lose by 40 points.
Interesting you think Leave would have lost by 40 points if they had stuck to the truth.
Mr. Rentool, yes and no. Getting out the vote matters more in a referendum, but I do think it's interesting there's seemingly not a focus on floating voters.
The roles played by each Remain team are pretty similar - swapping O'Grady for Eagles, Ruth for Nicola - having Sadiq playing Rudd is the odd one out. I'm assuming it's the London vote to counter Boris.
I'm only concerned about Ruth - she's very appealing on the TV and I don't feel she's overtly Scottish.
Anecdote alert - no sign of any campaigning in Leamington this weekend. After two targeted Remain leaflets last week (to my wife and middle son), we've had no more. I did see a Remain poster in a window though and a farmer has a big Remain billboard in a field on the road from Leamington to Kenilworth. Someone may have been giving Leave leaflets out at the station this morning but it was pouring for rain and I needed to catch my train, so I did not look very closely. If there is referendum fever in Warwickshire it is being very discreet.
New poster, so please be gentle. I'm still undecided on how I'll vote (I've been wobbling drunkenly from one side to the other) but I find it inexplicable to suggest anyone should be swayed by either the murder of Jo Cox or whether or not they can bear to be on the same side as Nigel Farage. For the record I dislike Nigel Farage and his poster, but they do not define the case for Brexit.
Equally Im trying not to allow my repulsion over the horrible milking of Jo Cox's death to sway my attitude toward the case to stay in the EU, though Im becoming angrier by the day at how my intelligence is being insulted. The Remain case should be intellectual and factual. Unlike Brexit, they have the full resource of government and the big business, media and political establishments behind them. They should be easily persuading me out of my apprehension over Britain's direction in the EU, by appealing to my common sense. But the way the deification of Jo Cox is so blatantly being used to foster gut-emotion and guilt, and particularly toward swaying women (who are clearly seen as weak-minded and sentimental) is infuriating me as it goes on, day after relentless day.
I'm having to actively force myself to remember that the manner in which the campaign is being fought should not matter to my ultimate decision. I don't want anyone, least of all myself, to vote on an issue as vital as this, out of spite, or imposed guilt, or mawkish sentimentality or dog whistle accusations of racism or personal dislike.
Excellent first post, Mr Dog - hope you'll share more thoughts.
I'm female, and started off as Reluctant Remain - and then shifted to Firm Leave. The notion, as you so pithily phrase it, regarding women voters made me metaphorically punch the air with delight.
It's so patronising and insulting. What I find most reprehensible is the assumption that Leave voters are stupid, witless and gullible - and that's before the heaps of other insults. When any campaign presumes that half the population are malign, bigoted cretins - it's simply not bothering to engage.
Thank you Ms Plato. Thats kind of you. I think its very hard to judge whether the use Jo Cox's death, is working or not. One must assume that the Remain strategists believe it is, or they wouldn't be continuing so blatantly, full steam ahead. The first post-murder polls suggested there was an immediate response didn't they? (as perhaps Mr Farage hoped for from his poster, though again, I find his lack of judgement quite staggering). Perhaps I'm in a minority in being actively repelled by the immediate appropriation of the murder for subtle, and then blatant campaigning. Perhaps most people see it as benign and organic.
In any event Im trying not to let either camps' efforts at manipulation sway my decision, even if only in reaction against them. When I finally get there, I want it to be by my own judgement, such as it is, as much as possible. I WILL vote though. I just haven't quite managed to get my backside off the 'on the one hand, on the other hand', fence yet. I need to pay much more attention to the minutiae of the arguments I think, rather than letting myself be distracted by desperate grandstanding on both sides.
Interesting coverage on Brexit today in La Reppublica.
Italians living in London...some have them have just discovered that their partners are voting Brexit. My wife has said that she would find it more palatable if I she discovered if I was having an affair....and from an Italian women who has spelled out over the years the excruciating consequences to me if I did this, that is really saying something.
That she's closed-minded?
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens...
My wife is Estonian (ethnically Russian).
She came out for Leave yesterday.
And your point is.....?
My wife is happy being an Italian. She is a proud Italian. Unlike your wife who can vote presumably, my wife cannot. She married me when the rules were we could move through the EU and marry who we wanted without having to renounce our country of citizenship. Brexit wants to changes the rules. Bit unfair for those people who are stuck in long term relationships.
If my wife renounces her Italian citizenship the implications for her in Italy are really quite profound in respect to inheritance and tax, and all things I wouldn't want to bore you with, but are really fundamentally important to her.
But why should your case be special compared with those married to Australians, Canadians, Indians, Americans, or Japanese? Surely that is fundamentally unfair.
Isn't there any cut-off period, where you're not allowed to publish polls before the vote?
You can publish at any time polls showing how people intend to vote.
What you can't publish on election day, until after the polls have closed is polls showing how people have voted.
In fact, you can't publish polls *at any time* before the polls close, showing how people have voted. That's why polls that contact postal voters still have to ask how they'd vote if the referendum was tomorrow, or some such equivalent wording even if they've already actually voted in the real one - the question has to remain hypothetical otherwise it'd be a part-exit poll and hence embargoed.
Mr. Rentool, yes and no. Getting out the vote matters more in a referendum, but I do think it's interesting there's seemingly not a focus on floating voters.
The roles played by each Remain team are pretty similar - swapping O'Grady for Eagles, Ruth for Nicola - having Sadiq playing Rudd is the odd one out. I'm assuming it's the London vote to counter Boris. I'm only concerned about Ruth - she's very appealing on the TV and I don't feel she's overtly Scottish....
Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
It seems to me that Remain have been desperate to make this about Farage from the beginning and have been frustrated by his relatively low profile during the campaign, a campaign led by Gove and Boris. Their last final attempt to bring him centre stage is this poster, a poster which shows a tiny proportion, not even 1%, of the net migration that remainers want to continue coming into this country indefinitely.
Those of a certain mindset used to lament that they could not get the staff anymore. Inside the EU that is not true and the local oiks can be safely ignored. Similarly, the tradesmen get put back in their place, thankful for what work they can get and their wages diminished. And it is pretty much impossible to get a council house in the south of England as larger and newly arrived families jump the queue. But that is not really a problem for the ABs either is it?
The greedy and selfish haves may prevail with their moral blackmail and blatant self interest on Thursday but I hope not.
Hear hear!
Yep, Charles, you'll be absolutely fine post-Brexit. Join the gang. DavidL's a member too, along with Topping, Alastair Meeks and a few others on here. We don't have to worry about further public services cuts and possible tax hikes. We'll get along just fine. And, as an added bonus, millions of Turks will not descend upon us in the next few years.
I believe a lot of our fellow country men and women dont do well out of the current settlement. This is a chance to change that. That is what drovecmy vote - as you said, I'll be just fine personally
But in saying Hear, Hear to DavidL's post you clearly believe that those who believe Remain is the best option are doing so only for selfish reasons. Can you explain how that works?
DavidL's post doesn';t say that.
"The greedy and selfish haves may prevail with their moral blackmail and blatant self interest on Thursday but I hope not"
Comments
I agree with Pulpstar - this should be about a 1.02-1.03 shot.
FWIW, the Blair succession market was similar, with Brown consistently overpriced by a ridiculous amount. I can only think that it comes down to a lot of people seeing a mistake in the offing and thinking that the party will 'do something' to avoid it, without considering the political fundamentals.
Somebody I work with from the Remain campaign's ideal demographic (young female professional, high earner, inner London resident, always votes Labour) who's changed her mind repeatedly just told me how she voted.
It was Leave
My wife can vote however she pleases, it is her vote and her choice and I respect her enough that if she voted differently to me I'd be curious her reasons but respect it either way. Shame if your relationship isn't that equitable.
"British armed forces personnel are loyal to this country and recognise Her Majesty as commander-in-chief. You want them saluting Juncker and obeying foreign commanders on a permanent basis? It's a horrendous idea."
First of all they would absolutely salute Juncker if on parade. Second, you posited the horrendous idea of HMF being under foreign commanders on a permanent basis. Which they already are, as per my link.
Does NATO regulate on widget specifications? Don't think so. But that wasn't the point you were making.
Equally Im trying not to allow my repulsion over the horrible milking of Jo Cox's death to sway my attitude toward the case to stay in the EU, though Im becoming angrier by the day at how my intelligence is being insulted. The Remain case should be intellectual and factual. Unlike Brexit, they have the full resource of government and the big business, media and political establishments behind them. They should be easily persuading me out of my apprehension over Britain's direction in the EU, by appealing to my common sense. But the way the deification of Jo Cox is so blatantly being used to foster gut-emotion and guilt, and particularly toward swaying women (who are clearly seen as weak-minded and sentimental) is infuriating me as it goes on, day after relentless day.
I'm having to actively force myself to remember that the manner in which the campaign is being fought should not matter to my ultimate decision. I don't want anyone, least of all myself, to vote on an issue as vital as this, out of spite, or imposed guilt, or mawkish sentimentality or dog whistle accusations of racism or personal dislike.
Mr. Tyson, might you be thinking of '39?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exEeS19Mzq4
I agree with your sentiments. This is a vote on whether we're integrated more or leave the EU entirely, not on whether Farage is someone you like. The use of Jo Cox's murder for campaigning is... less than pleasant.
Look, I know nothing about US politics but I wouldn't be tying money up for a few months on something that is drifting.
Firstly, it'd be news to me that soldiers in the British army are permanently under the command of NATO and loyal to that institution rather than the UK.
Secondly, actually your 'widget' point is one I did make. NATO is all about military co-operation. It has no aspiration of superstate empire-building, unlike the EU. That is a fundamental difference.
Remain has a London mayor and a Scotswoman, which may not necessarily help them make the case to, say, middle England (or 'Little England' as they may term it). Who's the third Remain debater?
Whenever I genuinely don't know what to do I most often do nothing.
It has seen me home and dry in a variety of situations and seems like a natural human instinct to me.
I would have thought quite a lot of undecided's may take the' do nothing' and stay at home option come Thursday. The poor weather forecasted for the day could well help to reinforce that.
Given that Remain seem to be relying on the undecideds breaking heavily for them I would have thought human nature might favour Leave on the day.
Cameron and Osborne have threatened, cajoled, intimidated and harassed the people of Britain all to save their worthless political hides. They have been aided by international groups who are terrified that if we vote to leave the EU project, other countries will follow and the whole edifice, from which they have prospered, will collapse around them.
Let's talk about immigration then - if it reaches a point where two jobless Lithuanians would rather sleep rough under the A13 than be taken home at the tax payers' expense we have a problem but the problem is not immigration per se.
It is to my mind a philosophical failure - instead of actively investing in Eastern Europe to promote jobs and rebuild and restructure the post-Communist economies after 1989 which might have impoverished us slightly in the short term but would have paid dividends in the longer term, we frittered away our "Peace Dividend" on tax cuts for ourselves.
We created in areas like Southern England and Germany areas of such overwhelming economic attraction they have pulled in people in such numbers that in order for these areas to maintain their prosperity they need even more people as cheap labour. That has impoverished many other areas of Europe and has now come back to us in terms of social problems.
It's absurd, short-termist and ultimately doomed to failure.
And yet you bleat on about a poster..
Mr. NorthWales, cheers. Never heard of him. Mind you, Leadsom's not a household name and she did very well in the first debate.
I'm female, and started off as Reluctant Remain - and then shifted to Firm Leave. The notion, as you so pithily phrase it, regarding women voters made me metaphorically punch the air with delight.
It's so patronising and insulting. What I find most reprehensible is the assumption that Leave voters are stupid, witless and gullible - and that's before the heaps of other insults. When any campaign presumes that half the population are malign, bigoted cretins - it's simply not bothering to engage.
If I ever wondered what the conversation was like in courts of the 18th century ancien regime I need look no further than PB this morning. Good grief.
I do want to pick up on Southam's point about crocodile tears from Tory voters. Deficit reduction is key for me. I think Osborne has been too slow, and we're increasingly paying the price for that slowness.
However, only stupid people think that Brexit wouldn't be a shock to the UK's financial system. Given that, only stupid people would think that the appropriate response would be Osborne's punishment budget. A mild fiscal stimulus would be better. Pragmatism over ideology if you will.
That said, I think Southam is one of the few remainers on here who 'gets' it.
rcs1000 pointed out (and I agree) that our economy isn't in great shape. It's a shame we're having a referendum now. Brown's maladministration and Osborne's caution have done us few favours.
Finally, and I think I'm going to bow out after this (there are only so many times you can take people masking their own self-interest while shrieking "racism"), I'm simply going to assert that trying to win the argument based on moral taint is daft. That's not to say it doesn't work, it might, see my next paragraph
Every time I go to the ballot box, I'm aware that I'm in the virtual company of bigots of every stripe, morons, sheeple and ignoramuses. To require moral purity before voting for or against a cause is hilariously confused thinking.
PS Just read stodge's post. Superb. Kudos to you sir.
Italians or foreigners in long term relationships with British citizens......I don't know how the citizenship thing works, but I would not want to impose on my wife the fear that she would be forced to renounce her country of birth to take citizenship here. That alone makes it impossible for me to consider Brexit.
I also can't get my head around ethnic minorities who are pro Brexit. OK- my local Piazza in Fiesole is swamped by swarms of dippy Brits at the minute, very frustrating....but I would feel very hypocritical to want to stop them coming here.
Anyway, off my run up Fiesole hill.
So I'm actually a member of Islington North at the moment, but familiar with what's happening in Broxtowe. In general, political activity is far higher in London. 10% of the entire electorate in my area are actually Labour Party members, and a routine ward canvass will produce a dozen enthusiasts, swelling to hundreds at election time. Contact rates on the strongrest areas are over 80%. In Broxtowe, by contrast, I would often canvass on my own or with one other person, rising at election time to half a dozen per session.
To respond to Paristonda - that's why organisational levels aren't always correlated with marginality. Islington is one of the most well-organised Labour areas in the country (the Tory vote is in the mid-teens), but it's usually a machine producing helpers for elsewhere. At the Mayoral election and in the referendum, all votes count equally, so we're having fun mobilising the home vote.
You are frit
You think Britain is to rubbish to survive without Brussels organising trade deals
You like socialism
You run a sweat shop
Otherwise its Brexit.
Imo Leave has about a 40% chance based on the polling, maybe better. But punters seem to latch onto any reason to favour Remain.
She came out for Leave yesterday.
@JeremyCliffe: In other words, if you're terrified about loads of Turks coming to Britain you should be a die-hard Remain supporter.
Interesting panel. A trades unionist, Labour mayor of London and Scottish Conservative. Two of those are from areas that are generally pro-Remain and may not cut through to England/Wales as well. O'Grady's performance might be the most important.
'I think a supporter of a campaign which has talked about war if we vote to LEAVE, has threatened pensioners with cuts to their pensions if we vote to LEAVE and which has threatened to slash public spending if we vote to LEAVE needs to re-adjust his perception of "squalid".
Cameron and Osborne have threatened, cajoled, intimidated and harassed the people of Britain all to save their worthless political hides. They have been aided by international groups who are terrified that if we vote to leave the EU project, other countries will follow and the whole edifice, from which they have prospered, will collapse around them.
Let's talk about immigration then - if it reaches a point where two jobless Lithuanians would rather sleep rough under the A13 than be taken home at the tax payers' expense we have a problem but the problem is not immigration per se.
It is to my mind a philosophical failure - instead of actively investing in Eastern Europe to promote jobs and rebuild and restructure the post-Communist economies after 1989 which might have impoverished us slightly in the short term but would have paid dividends in the longer term, we frittered away our "Peace Dividend" on tax cuts for ourselves.
We created in areas like Southern England and Germany areas of such overwhelming economic attraction they have pulled in people in such numbers that in order for these areas to maintain their prosperity they need even more people as cheap labour. That has impoverished many other areas of Europe and has now come back to us in terms of social problems.
It's absurd, short-termist and ultimately doomed to failure.
And yet you bleat on about a poster..'
Spot on, game,set & match.
But this is all moot anyway as, regardless of the likelihood or otherwise of an EU army, and its format, defence matters remain under UK sovereignty.
Oh and of course there is a different discussion to be had about superstates, etc but that didn't feature in your original comment.
My wife is dual citizen.
Met a young professional woman high earner inner London professional . She told me she works with an obsessed Leaver who is such a political geek he even posts on a political website . To get him off her back and let her concentrate on her job she told him she had already voted Leave despite the fact she does not have a postal vote .and will be voting Remain on Thursday .
My wife is happy being an Italian. She is a proud Italian. Unlike your wife who can vote presumably, my wife cannot. She married me when the rules were we could move through the EU and marry who we wanted without having to renounce our country of citizenship. Brexit wants to changes the rules. Bit unfair for those people who are stuck in long term relationships.
If my wife renounces her Italian citizenship the implications for her in Italy are really quite profound in respect to inheritance and tax, and all things I wouldn't want to bore you with, but are really fundamentally important to her.
With the UK debate focussed on immigration we ignore the effects on emigration on poorer countries.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/19/conservatives-masterclass-not-govern-country-europe
Even those who don't fancy the Guardian may be inclined to concede that she makes some good points.
swarms of dippy Brits
Why do you have such loathing of British people?
https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/744814145116114945
There are still people in the local Conservative club who will blank me because of my identity. They have overt dislike and contempt for me. I think they're stupid and biased. Didn't stop me voting Tory last GE.
If you vote Labour, you're in the company of people who think homosexuality is flat out wrong, and are anti-semitic to boot (that also applies to Tories ofc). The Lib Dems have long standing issues with their treatment of women.
There's broad agreement that Remain's weakest point in this campaign is immigration. However, like a dog returning to its vomit, they just can't leave it alone. They've broken Godwin's law. They need to go back to frightening people over the economy.
On the infamous poster. I road tested it with two twenty-somethings (daughter & bf). They didn't get it. They're not experts on Nazi iconography. They didn't even know about the famous Saatchi ad. Why would they? For them, it was a great big queue of people. They thought it was a weak advert.
In terms of sordid materialism, in my view that's what we're hearing from Remain. Economic stats. Employment stats. Money, money, money. The Mrs Duffy's of this world just don't think like that. It's a shame her vote in this referendum carries as much weight as the wealthier, better educated people who are doing very nicely thanks so much.
My wife can't vote, actually - she's one of these people who doesn't vote normally because "they're all the same", so she's never bothered to get British citizenship. But if she's at all typical of those who think "they're all the same"...
This board is a microcosm of modern debate - generally well-mannered, civil and with a huge range of knowledge and perspectives. I have learnt a lot passively from reading the posts of lawyers, engineers, scientists and the gamut of other professional and non-professional people who post here and enrich the site.
Yet, debate is also about passion and intensity and believing in the cause and yes at times the price of that passion is a deterioration in civility but the anger is a part of us and expressing it is part of what makes us human. We anger, we move on, we apologise or we don't.
My response to your post would be that we are all able (indeed far more so than we have ever been) to do our own research and our own thinking, Browse, read, listen and think would be my advice. Get as many viewpoints as you can and think about them.
Ultimately while there is right and left, there is no right and wrong on this one. Neither LEAVE nor REMAIN has the monopoly of truth or wisdom.
What you can't publish on election day, until after the polls have closed is polls showing how people have voted.
I'm only concerned about Ruth - she's very appealing on the TV and I don't feel she's overtly Scottish.
Why is there no one from Wales either?
I'm following the 10/10's. Leave ahead in 11 of 13. Turnout likely to be between 65-70% if they repeat last year's margin of error.
I suspect that any remaining phone poll is extremely susceptible to shy Leave responses following last Thursday.
In any event Im trying not to let either camps' efforts at manipulation sway my decision, even if only in reaction against them. When I finally get there, I want it to be by my own judgement, such as it is, as much as possible. I WILL vote though. I just haven't quite managed to get my backside off the 'on the one hand, on the other hand', fence yet. I need to pay much more attention to the minutiae of the arguments I think, rather than letting myself be distracted by desperate grandstanding on both sides.