Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suit
The drift on Leave this morning is something to behold. Presumably the Leave boosters on here will be putting their lives' savings and their house on the 4.9...?
The pound started falling BEFORE the polls shifted towards Brexit. If it's now moving up again it suggests that private polling is heading back to Remain. You also have to bear in mind the momentum shift. I still struggle to see how Leave is not over-priced though at 4.4. The awful events last week could well be noise not signal.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
Sky is beyond stupid since Thursday.
you are only saying that because you don't like they way they report things.
@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
Ford dont make any cars in this country
They make car parts though.
They make engines which they have said previously will get sold round the world no matter whether were in our out. They have closed down or disposed of all their other UK manufacturing assets.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 BREAKING: Baroness Warsi has announced that she will no longer be headlining at Glastonbury.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 BREAKING: Baroness Warsi announces that she will no longer be competing for Team GB in the 100metre sprint at the Rio Olympics
Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suit
The drift on Leave this morning is something to behold. Presumably the Leave boosters on here will be putting their lives' savings and their house on the 4.9...?
I don't bet with money I couldn't afford to lose, but by my standards I have a lot of money on Leave now. I don't want it to win but I think it has a much better chance than the odds suggest.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
Sky is beyond stupid since Thursday.
Because it is running stories you don't like. Tough luck.
@marks_hallam: Ford says media misrepresentations of company views prompted them to speak up. Decision "up to UK voters", though. https://t.co/oa6yLA6VjF
@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?
Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.
He said
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
Beginning to think the Farage/UKIP poster was the turning point. What was he thinking? Leave were winning, no need to scare the horses like that.
I've said it before. Farage is in it for Farage.
A narrow REMAIN win is ideal for him and keeps him in the game. UKIP will thrive over the next few years as all Cameron's promise's turn to ashes and he also gets to keep his place on the EU gravy train.
Paul_Bedfordshire - how do you know that 27% of the electorate have already voted by post? That's a huge number. If 27% have asked for a postal vote that doesn't mean they will use it.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 BREAKING: Baroness Warsi has announced that she will no longer be headlining at Glastonbury.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 BREAKING: Baroness Warsi announces that she will no longer be competing for Team GB in the 100metre sprint at the Rio Olympics
Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
A plague on both your houses is likely to be a vote for the status quo.
Ah ha...... Last week the great British public looked into the abyss, as Brexit gathered up momentum, and saw Farage's huge mug standing in front of a racist poster.
Thank goodness we live in a tolerant country after all.
And John O- my long time political betting sparring partner, his dad has put up a remain poster, at the young age of 88. My heart melts.
@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?
Turkey is not a member of the EU, nor likely to be in the near future. Can you explain why the EU would subsidise a van plant in a non-EU country?
The movements in the betting markets are far too febrile if based on rumours of a poll. Unless the poll is a big outlier. But who here believes outliers? Preposterous? Or simply pre-posterior? @AlastairMeeks
@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?
Turkey is not a member of the EU, nor likely to be in the near future. Can you explain why the EU would subsidise a van plant in a non-EU country?
That question is wrong. It's not why would it's why did?
What might prove decisive this week is a very crowded and well co-ordinated Remain grid.
It's pretty clear what they spent Friday and Saturday doing and we seem to have effectively reverted to a pre-purdah period for the last 72 hours, which should see Remain comfortably over the line.
Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.
He said
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
I was quoting from the video, which is worth watching. He also criticises the Remain campaign, but emphasises that Leave "has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale, on an industrial scale"
@martinboon: Just to reconfirm for those who missed it, there will not be further online/phone polls from @ICMResearch prior to the referendum.
Since they're a very highly-reputed pollster and there's a huge amount of money hanging on the result of this vote, I'm guessing they mean that they won't be doing any more *public* polls.
Paul_Bedfordshire - how do you know that 27% of the electorate have already voted by post? That's a huge number. If 27% have asked for a postal vote that doesn't mean they will use it.
Quite. He's also suggesting that all 27% cast their postal vote before last Tuesday, which is preposterous.
Remain price now 1/5 and still tightening. Let's not beat around the bush Cox aligned with the Farage poster has sunk Leave below the waterline. Could now be 55-45 Remain or better.
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
I was quoting from the video, which is worth watching. He also criticises the Remain campaign, but emphasises that Leave "has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale, on an industrial scale"
Does his repeating his statement make it more true?
I think a few porkies have been told on both sides, in truth.
@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?
Turkey is not a member of the EU, nor likely to be in the near future. Can you explain why the EU would subsidise a van plant in a non-EU country?
That question is wrong. It's not why would it's why did?
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 BREAKING: Baroness Warsi has announced that she will no longer be headlining at Glastonbury.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 BREAKING: Baroness Warsi announces that she will no longer be competing for Team GB in the 100metre sprint at the Rio Olympics
Lol!
JHB also tweeted that Britain paid for n ireland's EU redevelopment funds because we were one of only two net contributors 'at the time'. Don't know when 'the time' was but in 2000, just after the Peace Process was being implemented, there were 6-8 net contributors (two are very marginal cases), of which the UK was 6th by proportion of GDP.
As with so much of this campaign (on both sides) a half-decent point is undermined by exaggeration.
Paul_Bedfordshire - how do you know that 27% of the electorate have already voted by post? That's a huge number. If 27% have asked for a postal vote that doesn't mean they will use it.
Quite. He's also suggesting that all 27% cast their postal vote before last Tuesday, which is preposterous.
Most people use their postal vote the same day it arrives through the letter box so they don't forget.
On my Facebook there's 65 people so far set to attend the 'More in common:Cardiff festival of action to celebrate the life of Jo Cox' on Wednesday evening. I think this is extremely unwise.
It just so happens that I've just started reading Marlon James' 'A History of seven killings' a novel about Jamaica in 1976 where Bob Marley is set to host a peace concert before the upcoming election.
Remain price now 1/5 and still tightening. Let's not beat around the bush Cox aligned with the Farage poster has sunk Leave below the waterline. Could now be 55-45 Remain or better.
Is it that or the expected swingback Remain have been predicting.
In either case the events of the last week mean the issue wont go away.
Surprisingly while I had been expecting a split Tory party, it seems Labour are trying to join them . This contest has just torn up the rule book.
What is your source for this? A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.
@martinboon: Just to reconfirm for those who missed it, there will not be further online/phone polls from @ICMResearch prior to the referendum.
Since they're a very highly-reputed pollster and there's a huge amount of money hanging on the result of this vote, I'm guessing they mean that they won't be doing any more *public* polls.
Maybe, but they might also turn down private commissions. Sounds to me as if they're twitchy about their methodology or being undermined by late swings, and that they'd rather protect against reputational damage than bring in some extra revenue. If so, private polling (that might be leaked) could be just as bad.
Remain price now 1/5 and still tightening. Let's not beat around the bush Cox aligned with the Farage poster has sunk Leave below the waterline. Could now be 55-45 Remain or better.
If I had a pound for every time someone had said on here Leave/Remain is now a done deal..
Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.
He said
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
"Leave has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale".
It's a very good quote and an interesting clip
I can't actually think of one truthful thing the Out team has said. It is quite something, even by the levels of modern politics, that an entire political campaign lasting (excruciatingly weeks) could be filled entirely on untruths, lies, slander and racism.
OK- the only thing the In campaign has really said (apart from pointing out the lies in Out) is that an Out vote will hurt the economy- judging by todays markets bounce, and the IMF predictions, and by major business leaders saying that they could no longer invest in the UK post Brexit, that seems entirely plausible.
@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
Did they also write to all their former workers in Southampton at the Van factory that they shut down and moved to Turkey that was built using EU investment money?
I thought something similar. Yes Ford make engines here. They have their innovation centre here which designed their turbo-blowing 1 litre engine. But car manufacturing and now vans have long gone. Then again, flip the argument over and you have James Dyson who off-shored all his manufacturing arguing for Leave.
All these businesses have literally no concern for British jobs. Bankism means take the profit now and forget about tomorrow, and if that means and end to British industry then who cares - we still have retail. And we are heading towards Douglas Adams' Shoe Event Horizon, the only difference being that instead of shoe shops its fucking coffee bars.
What is your source for this? A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
In your dreams maybe. A narrow Remain win fires the starting gun for the next one. A Neverendum ensues.
Euroscepticism always was a fringe movement. It will be a measure of the general discontent with politicians and the way of things that such a narrow-minded and essentially extreme right-wing position got as close as it did to commanding a majority in a referendum. For there are no other circumstances in which a majority of the U.K. Population would contemplate handing the country over to a movement within which Gove, IDS and Boris are the sensible wing.
UKIP will fight on, and the splits in the Tory party will continue, but otherwise a Remain vote buries the issue for a generation.
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
I think she could be on the money with that!
There are numerous voodoo polls running on football sites as well.
@martinboon: Just to reconfirm for those who missed it, there will not be further online/phone polls from @ICMResearch prior to the referendum.
Since they're a very highly-reputed pollster and there's a huge amount of money hanging on the result of this vote, I'm guessing they mean that they won't be doing any more *public* polls.
Maybe, but they might also turn down private commissions. Sounds to me as if they're twitchy about their methodology or being undermined by late swings, and that they'd rather protect against reputational damage than bring in some extra revenue. If so, private polling (that might be leaked) could be just as bad.
I think the latent support is absolutely there, but a majority of the public simply won't take a leap of faith and vote for Brexit unless there's a ready made deal on the table and a government to back it.
In this sense, the EU and UK Remainers are their own worst enemies. I suspect the former to make only cosmetic changes in the event of a UK Remain vote, and the latter to crow and sneer unbearably.
What is your source for this? A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.
That's the percentage of actual voters right, not the whole electorate?
If I ever wondered what the conversation was like in courts of the 18th century ancien regime I need look no further than PB this morning. Good grief.
I do want to pick up on Southam's point about crocodile tears from Tory voters. Deficit reduction is key for me. I think Osborne has been too slow, and we're increasingly paying the price for that slowness.
However, only stupid people think that Brexit wouldn't be a shock to the UK's financial system. Given that, only stupid people would think that the appropriate response would be Osborne's punishment budget. A mild fiscal stimulus would be better. Pragmatism over ideology if you will.
That said, I think Southam is one of the few remainers on here who 'gets' it.
rcs1000 pointed out (and I agree) that our economy isn't in great shape. It's a shame we're having a referendum now. Brown's maladministration and Osborne's caution have done us few favours.
Finally, and I think I'm going to bow out after this (there are only so many times you can take people masking their own self-interest while shrieking "racism"), I'm simply going to assert that trying to win the argument based on moral taint is daft. That's not to say it doesn't work, it might, see my next paragraph
Every time I go to the ballot box, I'm aware that I'm in the virtual company of bigots of every stripe, morons, sheeple and ignoramuses. To require moral purity before voting for or against a cause is hilariously confused thinking.
PS Just read stodge's post. Superb. Kudos to you sir.
A post with much to recommend it, particularly the last few paras.
Those City boys are evidently betting on some tip off or other, rightly or wrongly.
Has there been a leak on a forthcoming poll which is favourable to REMAIN?
Has there been a leak as regards postal voting in one particular area perhaps? - Personally I can't see how this can happen on the dual sealed envelope system in use, short of brazenly opening the inner ballot paper envelopes.
Mr. Song, both the campaigns have been rife with exaggeration, misleading statements and deceit. Picking one out for truthful loveliness is like selecting the most fragrant cowpat.
A plague on both your houses is likely to be a vote for the status quo.
Not really. A remain vote will be a repudiation of the nauseous, vile, mendacious Out campaign, and a huge political victory for David Cameron and George Osborne and their campaign. I'll probably even be tempted to lend hopefully PM George Osborne my vote for the 2020 election if Labour doesn't get its act together by then.
Thst means that JUST UNDER 40% OF THOSE WHO WILL VOTE HAVE ALREADY VOTED.
Its over - remain have already lost, hence all the signs of bitterness and capitulation.
Labours famous Postal Vote machine has won it for Brexit.
Why should that mean Brexit win?
The likelihood is that a significant majority - those who post as soon as it arrives - will have voted at a time when Brexit was at its strongest in the polls and before Farage and THAT poster and the killing of Jo Fox. With a vote on a knife-edge, it could be crucial.
I still have no idea which side is going to win. One thing's for sure though - I wouldn't be wanting to pile my banker bonus on Remain at the Betfair odds today....
Those City boys are evidently betting on some tip off or other, rightly or wrongly.
Has there been a leak on a forthcoming poll which is favourable to REMAIN?
Has there been a leak as regards postal voting in one particular area perhaps? - Personally I can't see how this can happen on the dual sealed envelope system in use, short of brazenly opening the inner ballot paper envelopes.
If Yougov release a poll tonight, they'll still be polling. I'm not sure if ORB would still be polling if they release a poll tonight.
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
In your dreams maybe. A narrow Remain win fires the starting gun for the next one. A Neverendum ensues.
Euroscepticism always was a fringe movement. It will be a measure of the general discontent with politicians and the way of things that such a narrow-minded and essentially extreme right-wing position got as close as it did to commanding a majority in a referendum. For there are no other circumstances in which a majority of the U.K. Population would contemplate handing the country over to a movement within which Gove, IDS and Boris are the sensible wing.
UKIP will fight on, and the splits in the Tory party will continue, but otherwise a Remain vote buries the issue for a generation.
A Remain vote buries the issue until five seconds after the EU does something we were told they would NEVER do, no sirreeeee.....
Mr. Eagles, why would he shoot Stalin or Hitler? They're both dead already.
On a more serious note: finding people saying silly things on Twitter isn't hard. A Call of Duty developer got death threats (and some aimed at his family) over Twitter because a patch was released altering the reload times of various weapons.
There have been some less than subtle suggestions that the Leave campaign is responsible for Jo Cox's murder. Neither campaign is exactly shimmering with purity.
What is your source for this? A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.
And 16.9% of voters at 2015 GE = 11% of the electorate.
It is totally inconceivable that the number voting by post has gone from 11% to 27% in the space of one year.
If Im wrong on reading 27% I can only apologise. Im sure I didnt imagine it.
My guess is that the 16.9% figure is the proportion of electors register to vote by post (of which I would guess about 80% will return their ballots). The higher 27% figure is probably an estimate of the proportion of people who actually turn out are postal voters. The easy mistake to make in doing such a calculation is to reduce the non-postal voters by the assumed polling station turnout and then divide it by the total of the turnout and the registered postal voters. Whereas of course non-returning postal voters also need to be allowed for. To know whether the figure is likely to be accurate, or not, we would need to see the workings......
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
I think she could be on the money with that!
UKIP does well in Wales.
There were people (3-5?) waving Leave placards on one of the M4 bridges in Newport this morning. Meaningless per se of course, but top marks for dedication as it was sheeting it down.
Remain price now 1/5 and still tightening. Let's not beat around the bush Cox aligned with the Farage poster has sunk Leave below the waterline. Could now be 55-45 Remain or better.
If I had a pound for every time someone had said on here Leave/Remain is now a done deal..
You'd be lying to yourself if you don't suspect something's definitely changed this time. It all hinges on the flaky 10% if you like. They want to go with the mood. the mood now has turned.
Comments
Pollsters try to adjust for turnout before giving results.
Interestingly, oddschecker doesnt show that many more bets. Implication is large bets are being placed.
BREAKING: Baroness Warsi has announced that she will no longer be headlining at Glastonbury.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1
BREAKING: Baroness Warsi announces that she will no longer be competing for Team GB in the 100metre sprint at the Rio Olympics
Odds now:
1/4 REMAIN
3/1 LEAVE
https://t.co/Fg2y5EyA2S
Also are the polls taking into account anyone who has already voted.
Maybe they read PB...
Shadsy: £25,000 bet on REMAIN in a Ladbrokes shop in Newport.
A narrow REMAIN win is ideal for him and keeps him in the game. UKIP will thrive over the next few years as all Cameron's promise's turn to ashes and he also gets to keep his place on the EU gravy train.
REMAIN is a win, win for him.
Last week the great British public looked into the abyss, as Brexit gathered up momentum, and saw Farage's huge mug standing in front of a racist poster.
Thank goodness we live in a tolerant country after all.
And John O- my long time political betting sparring partner, his dad has put up a remain poster, at the young age of 88. My heart melts.
Preposterous? Or simply pre-posterior? @AlastairMeeks
It's pretty clear what they spent Friday and Saturday doing and we seem to have effectively reverted to a pre-purdah period for the last 72 hours, which should see Remain comfortably over the line.
He also criticises the Remain campaign, but emphasises that Leave "has degenerated into dishonesty on an industrial scale, on an industrial scale"
@RobDotHutton: Say what you like about Nigel Farage, at least he doesn't go on TV and deny knowledge of his own campaign materials.
1336 respondents
68% Leave
30% Remain
2% Undecided
Chimes with the amount of Leave posters littering South Wales and the conversations. My personal thoughts aside, I don't really understand what's driving such antipathy to the EU round here.
There was a Corbyn supporter on Sky News earlier saying rather than anti-immigration, she thinks the working class protest vote was being driven in old Labour areas more by a feeling that 'nothing ever changes in our safe seats in a GE, so this is a chance to make a change'...
I think she could be on the money with that!
I think a few porkies have been told on both sides, in truth.
I suggest REMAIN supporters show their support and plough ALL savings into REMAIN.
We got "Ding Dong Witch is Dead" to No 1. We can get LEAVE odds up to 10/1.
As with so much of this campaign (on both sides) a half-decent point is undermined by exaggeration.
It just so happens that I've just started reading Marlon James' 'A History of seven killings' a novel about Jamaica in 1976 where Bob Marley is set to host a peace concert before the upcoming election.
In the words of Vic Reeve "You wouldn't let it lie, would you? You wouldn't let it lie..."
In either case the events of the last week mean the issue wont go away.
Surprisingly while I had been expecting a split Tory party, it seems Labour are trying to join them . This contest has just torn up the rule book.
A year ago at the GE, "Across England, Scotland and Wales, the proportion of electors who chose to vote by post was 16.9%." = HoC report.
OK- the only thing the In campaign has really said (apart from pointing out the lies in Out) is that an Out vote will hurt the economy- judging by todays markets bounce, and the IMF predictions, and by major business leaders saying that they could no longer invest in the UK post Brexit, that seems entirely plausible.
Over half the votes were from 55+ voters . The inferred Remain lead was 62-38 by post.
All these businesses have literally no concern for British jobs. Bankism means take the profit now and forget about tomorrow, and if that means and end to British industry then who cares - we still have retail. And we are heading towards Douglas Adams' Shoe Event Horizon, the only difference being that instead of shoe shops its fucking coffee bars.
UKIP will fight on, and the splits in the Tory party will continue, but otherwise a Remain vote buries the issue for a generation.
Swansea City are leave at the moment.
Sunderland were also showing as leave.
In this sense, the EU and UK Remainers are their own worst enemies. I suspect the former to make only cosmetic changes in the event of a UK Remain vote, and the latter to crow and sneer unbearably.
Has there been a leak on a forthcoming poll which is favourable to REMAIN?
Has there been a leak as regards postal voting in one particular area perhaps? - Personally I can't see how this can happen on the dual sealed envelope system in use, short of brazenly opening the inner ballot paper envelopes.
Guess that makes me a shy LEAVE on PB
The death of Jo Cox is no more tragic than a single soldier dying in Afghanistan to joe public, I reckon.
Whisper it, but maybe less.
I still have no idea which side is going to win. One thing's for sure though - I wouldn't be wanting to pile my banker bonus on Remain at the Betfair odds today....
No (Remain) to Independence was 24 points ahead on the postal vote going into Scottish referendum day. On the day it was 52-48 to No.
Yes to Indepenence would have needed an eight point win on the day to claw back their postal deficit.
On a more serious note: finding people saying silly things on Twitter isn't hard. A Call of Duty developer got death threats (and some aimed at his family) over Twitter because a patch was released altering the reload times of various weapons.
There have been some less than subtle suggestions that the Leave campaign is responsible for Jo Cox's murder. Neither campaign is exactly shimmering with purity.
It is totally inconceivable that the number voting by post has gone from 11% to 27% in the space of one year.