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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thursday could end up becoming a referendum on Nigel Farage

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352

    If you say so

    As a shy LEAVE, I do say so.
    Are you really a shy leaver and if so why are you shy
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503

    Cycling today, I saw 30 Remain posters and none for Leave. Mind, I was travelling through Hackney and Islington. I also saw 1 poster for Jeremy Corbyn, which I thought was a bit strange!

    Fenman said:

    Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters

    Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
    I see no remain posters around at all, but a fair few leave ones. But then this is north hampshire.
    Where are you in north Hants?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,040

    Cycling today, I saw 30 Remain posters and none for Leave. Mind, I was travelling through Hackney and Islington. I also saw 1 poster for Jeremy Corbyn, which I thought was a bit strange!

    Fenman said:

    Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters

    Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
    I see no remain posters around at all, but a fair few leave ones. But then this is north hampshire.
    Locally (mid Essex) the Leave posters are on big buildings or in fields. The Remain ones are in ordinary house windows.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Scott_P said:

    Yes, when the Leavers parrot the "Let's take control!" slogan, I wonder how many of them stop to consider just which "us" Boris and co are referring to.

    Even Fraser Nelson, who is a Leaver, gets it

    @FraserNelson: The best cartoons say - at a glance - what scribblers like me would struggle to say in 1000 words. By @mortenmorland https://t.co/pvqIIIpiBk
    Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,291
    Regarding Crabb, I don't think he is as poor as suggested, he just isn't one of the first division candidates. Thats an advantage as he isn't tainted with the record of the government as a Cabinet Minister would be.

    You also have to consider how the game has changed. Electing a leader who isn't posh, isn't obviously mad, could try and connect with an electorate who have drifted away from the Tory glitterati and their lecture hector style, thats how you win elections. A Leave win makes it for Boris to lose (or will Gove be his Brutus?), a Remain win that ousts Cameron ousts Osborne and surely May.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.

    Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paul Kirkby
    The #Brexit vote will come down to turnout. Brilliant infographic from @mattsmithetc https://t.co/2hm2Df3irP
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    The Leave price is, once again, absurd.

    Your withering assessments of the campaign, betting odds and polls have been one of the highlights of PB for me this referendum.

    Genuinely :+1:
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    Considering I thought that was value at 3's I feel a bit of a mug....but then I looked at the stock market and sterling and felt much better. The market has spoken.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    I really don't want to stake more on that market but, jeez, that's ridiculous.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?


    SKY seems to have come out for REMAIN even if it's undeclared.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Simon_Nixon: Global stocks surge as polls suggest Britons will vote to remain in EU https://t.co/MMqO2d0Tjs > confirmation Brexit warnings right
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    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.

    I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Wanderer said:

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    I really don't want to stake more on that market but, jeez, that's ridiculous.
    It is.
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590

    Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.

    I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.
    Times said yesterday that Javid was on-board for a Crabb leadership bid, with a promise of Chancellorship.

    Glad I took Crabb up at 19 a couple of months ago.
    It would still be a meteoric rise. The Tory system does allow for that, but it's difficult to rely on.
    There is no way these two lightweights will get anywhere near the Leadership/Chancellor.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    Chances of it never being lower than that before Thursday I would say are zero.

    Free money trading.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Pulpstar said:

    The Leave price is, once again, absurd.

    Your withering assessments of the campaign, betting odds and polls have been one of the highlights of PB for me this referendum.

    Genuinely :+1:
    We couldn't live without Southam.....when he comes to a view, he likes us all to know about it, again, and again
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    chestnut said:

    All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.

    Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.

    They were very accurate last May
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.

    Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    I really don't want to stake more on that market but, jeez, that's ridiculous.
    It is.
    I've just put another £100 on at 4.5. Failed to resist :p
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Mr. Eagles, that's a shade condescending of you.

    I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.

    I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.
    Do you have a link to that assertion?
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,319
    Leave need to handle the Warsi story with care. She was no friend of Dave so claiming her apostasy was a No 10 stitch-up is patently ludicrous. Before Sadiq Khan she was Britain's most prominent Muslim politician, so her critique of Leave and it tactics has considerable heft. Boris needs to make a statement urgently, begging her forgiveness. He could also opt for some striking symbolism: say, burning a copy of Farage's poster while crying 'Believe me, Sayeeda, he is not us!'
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    marke09 said:
    Boris needs to learn that and repeat it in the next debate....
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Paul Kirkby
    The #Brexit vote will come down to turnout. Brilliant infographic from @mattsmithetc https://t.co/2hm2Df3irP

    Thunderstorms forecasted for Thursday.

    LEAVE will turnout whatever. They have waited 19 yrs to vote. REMAIN have never voted either, but they never wanted to.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,291

    chestnut said:

    All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.

    Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.

    They were very accurate last May
    I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556

    Mr. Eagles, that's a shade condescending of you.

    I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.

    Want me to list some of the insults Leavers use?
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    If we are talking posters I've seen a lot of Leave in rural Derbyshire and a lot of Remain in rural Oxfordshire. I don't think tells you anything tbh.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975
    Message from Charles Stanley:

    This Thursday – June 23rd 2016 – the country goes to the polls to decide on Britain’s future in Europe. It is a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote but we are expecting considerable volumes being traded through the Charles Stanley Direct platform as investors react to the news.
    Whatever the results, we anticipate that we may experience higher volumes and more market volatility than usual on the 23rd June and in the days following the vote. The immediate impact is likely to be felt most directly by those of you wishing to trade shares during such market conditions.

    It is possible that market makers will limit the size of orders that can be placed online and be slow to answer phones. In practice this may mean that you are more likely to have to place a limit order instead of a market order and it may take longer for us to be able to place such trades. Foreign exchange rates could also witness fluctuations and this has the potential to impact overseas trades placed during this time. We ask for your understanding if you are thus affected.

    Our experienced Edinburgh-based helpdesk may also receive a surge in call and query volumes. We will respond to queries as quickly and thoroughly as possible, but once again we would be grateful for the forbearance of our clients in the event of unusually high volumes.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    Punters are assuming that the don't knows split 60/40 for REMAIN - and that they turn out to vote.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556

    chestnut said:

    All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.

    Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.

    They were very accurate last May
    I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.
    I'm out there campaigning. Posters and billboards aren't a good indicator of anything.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    I put £3 on the referendum result and I am now guaranteed £5 either way.

    Shame I didn't stick a few zeroes on the end!!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Don't have enough in my Betfair account to fiddle with this. If Ladbrokes gets to 4+ I may give that a look (currently 3.75).
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    Leave need to handle the Warsi story with care. She was no friend of Dave so claiming her apostasy was a No 10 stitch-up is patently ludicrous. Before Sadiq Khan she was Britain's most prominent Muslim politician, so her critique of Leave and it tactics has considerable heft. Boris needs to make a statement urgently, begging her forgiveness. He could also opt for some striking symbolism: say, burning a copy of Farage's poster while crying 'Believe me, Sayeeda, he is not us!'

    She is irrelevent to 99% of the population.

    REMAIN has nothing to go on. They are trying to create momentum. Bof.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975
    Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.

    I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though :D
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    Punters are assuming that the don't knows split 60/40 for REMAIN - and that they turn out to vote.

    Not sure what punters are looking at, to be fair, other than the mood music.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Scott_P said:

    @Simon_Nixon: Global stocks surge as polls suggest Britons will vote to remain in EU https://t.co/MMqO2d0Tjs > confirmation Brexit warnings right

    Big companies love to make more money due to depressed staff costs shocker.

    As admitted by a leading remain figure.

    In a more serious manner, you do know stock prices go up and down all the time right?

    You might not have time to educate yourself between tweets so thought I should point it out.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    I put £3 on the referendum result and I am now guaranteed £5 either way.

    Shame I didn't stick a few zeroes on the end!!

    No matter how much you bet on your winners, you'll always wish you put more on ;)
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503

    chestnut said:

    All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.

    Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.

    They were very accurate last May
    I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.
    I never put up any posters in my house. And I am basically vote Leave for the village where I live.

    I don't want to politicise myself in the eyes of my neighbours. I think many English are the same.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Scott_P said:

    Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.

    Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.
    I was surprised when the Speccie went for Brexit as most of their content has been reluctant Remain and their columnists too. Clearly it's another case of the editorial line being led by the readership. That said, its Brexit editorial was fabulous.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.

    They were very accurate last May

    I take most anecdotes with a pinch of salt because there is precious little impartiality.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    edited June 2016
    Mr. Eagles, you can post what you like.

    Edited extra bit: in a bit of a bad mood. The Warsi 'story' has irritated me a lot more than anything else in this campaign, I think. It's of no significance, yet is being drummed up as some sort of major move. Faisal Islam/Sky are either idiots or incompetent.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Round here in deepest rural Sussex, there are a reasonable number of Vote Leave posters up, but I think I've seen only one Remain poster. Make of this what you will. I'm making nothing of it.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    lol, 4.8
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Scott_P said:

    Yes, when the Leavers parrot the "Let's take control!" slogan, I wonder how many of them stop to consider just which "us" Boris and co are referring to.

    Even Fraser Nelson, who is a Leaver, gets it

    @FraserNelson: The best cartoons say - at a glance - what scribblers like me would struggle to say in 1000 words. By @mortenmorland https://t.co/pvqIIIpiBk
    Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.
    Not unless he's switched to my side recently too?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    I put £3 on the referendum result and I am now guaranteed £5 either way.

    Shame I didn't stick a few zeroes on the end!!

    No matter how much you bet on your winners, you'll always wish you put more on ;)
    Indeed. I don't spend my time worryin' 'bout the way things might have been.
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    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.

    I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.
    Do you have a link to that assertion?
    What that the EU accounts have never passed audit? Or that tax money is used to bump up share prices?

    I think both statements have been demonstrated. Besides, I draw your attention to the expression "I wouldnt be surprised".
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274

    Safe space warning for Leavers.

    Leave just hit 4.4

    With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.

    I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.
    Do you have a link to that assertion?
    The rallies in GBP and FTSE are classic bear squeezes driven by the lack of LEAVE follow-through in the polls. My interpretation of the FTSE chart is that the next major move will be down, but that this move will start from around 6600, perhaps a bit higher. That would fit in with a REMAIN win on Thursday and a completion of the rally which started last week. If we hit 6600 before the referendum then all bets are off.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    4.8 now.

    Most curious.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.

    I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though :D

    Very wise - I'll be advising the same to clients (as i'm assuming remain wins),
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.

    I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though :D

    If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894

    Round here in deepest rural Sussex, there are a reasonable number of Vote Leave posters up, but I think I've seen only one Remain poster. Make of this what you will. I'm making nothing of it.

    That you have some pretty unpleasant neigbours?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    Pulpstar said:

    Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.

    I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though :D

    If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).
    Will GSk be OK ? It's the only share I hold outright for the moment.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Wanderer said:

    lol, 4.8

    It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Pulpstar said:

    Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.

    I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though :D

    If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).
    Agreed but I don't see it.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    tyson said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    So to be clear you are defending the poster? Let's be clear here.

    I don't like the poster personally. It is an exaggeration of a problem that is a concern for a lot of people, but hardly the first exaggeration by either side in this horrible campaign. We've reached a similar position as that in the US with Trump, in which a certain percentage of the population have lost all patience with political correctness and are excited by politicians that are seen to be ignoring - or deliberately flying in the face of - political correctness taboos altogether.

    The poster is intended for the WWC base of Leave; Gove can then come out and say he "shudders" to reflect the middle class Leavers.
    A very lukewarm response to my question. Ditto Rochdale. The poster is effing disgusting. Pure and simple.
    What I despise about this poster (apart from its obvious Goebbels iconography) is that it has sod all to do with the EU. The people depicted in this poster are displaced populations from war torn areas outside the EU. It would be similar to Italy having a campaign against the EU showing a boat full of migrants.

    That is why for me the idea of a European army is entirely persuasive- a joint force to deal with the Libyan coastline, the borders onto Turkey, and to help with reconstruction of war torn areas. This is in all our interests.
    Ignoring the point about an EU army for a moment. Are you actually suggesting that Western powers should invade yet another muslim country that has been taken over by extremists?

    Have you learnt ansolutrly nothing from Afghanistan of Iraq?
    Afghanistan was badly messed up because Bush wanted to hurry up and get on with invading Iraq and didnt wan to do the job properly in Afghanistan. Iraq wasn't already taken over my extremists - the complete lack of anything appraoching a coherent post-invasion and occupation plan resulted in the extremist takeover.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Wanderer said:

    lol, 4.8

    It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.
    Are we expecting any polls?
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    Fenman said:

    Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters

    Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
    In your dreams maybe. A narrow Remain win fires the starting gun for the next one. A Neverendum ensues.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Floater said:

    you do know stock prices go up and down all the time right?

    I posted a link to the Wall Street Journal.

    Why don't you explain to them how markets work...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Up to 4 on Ladbrokes, but given the way things are going I might leave it a while.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503

    Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.

    Hard to disagree with that. These price movements are huge.

    I presume either private polls or foresight of polls tonight showing a big swingback to Remain.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556

    Wanderer said:

    lol, 4.8

    It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.
    Are we expecting any polls?
    If they stick to past schedules, an ORB tonight. Possibly YouGov too
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    4.8 now.

    Most curious.

    Just topped up at 5
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Eagles, that's a shade condescending of you.

    I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.

    Want me to list some of the insults Leavers use?
    I don't think I have ever intentionally insulted anyone, well certainly not over the EU issue, but I have been insulted time and again. I have quite gotten used to it over the years. Nonetheless, I think Mr. Dancer has a point - the well of political discourse has been poisoned and many people will not forget or forgive.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.

    Hard to disagree with that. These price movements are huge.

    I presume either private polls or foresight of polls tonight showing a big swingback to Remain.
    Someone's found their crystal ball.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Days like today on the betting markets are the days that flush out who are the traditional probabilists and who are the Bayesians.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,319

    Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.

    Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain

    Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?

    Sky is beyond stupid since Thursday.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Wanderer said:

    lol, 4.8

    It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.
    What was the lowest that Yes got to in SindyRef? 4?, 3.9?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    4.8 now.

    Most curious.

    If you want to back Leave, would you plunge in now - or wait?

    You'd wait until 1pm and get sixes, wouldn't you?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited June 2016
    I am very tempted to cash out some of the £13k I have gradually built up on Remain. The price movements are interesting. However, if it is based on polling then Leave may lengthen further. Assuming the polls will be released and are not private polls.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.

    Not necessarily new information. You'd expect more volume in the final few days because the big-hitters don't want to tie up their capital weeks in advance.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    My 88 year old dad has put a Remain poster in his window...likely assisted by my sister!
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590

    Mr. Eagles, you can post what you like.

    Edited extra bit: in a bit of a bad mood. The Warsi 'story' has irritated me a lot more than anything else in this campaign, I think. It's of no significance, yet is being drummed up as some sort of major move. Faisal Islam/Sky are either idiots or incompetent.

    There appears to be a slight disagreement on twitter between Andrew Neil and Faisal Islam. I would put my money on AN myself. FI is getting far too up himself.

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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176

    Scott_P said:

    Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.

    Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.
    I was surprised when the Speccie went for Brexit as most of their content has been reluctant Remain and their columnists too. Clearly it's another case of the editorial line being led by the readership. That said, its Brexit editorial was fabulous.
    No surprise to a long-term subscriber.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,291
    Interesting tweet on @britainelects about turn-out (its a graphic).

    Looks like Remain need to be several points ahead.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    Days like today on the betting markets are the days that flush out who are the traditional probabilists and who are the Bayesians.

    In favour of leaving EU4.9 £20.00
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.

    I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though :D

    If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).
    Will GSk be OK ? It's the only share I hold outright for the moment.
    Revenue is around 38% European. Pharma is intrinsically defensive, so I'd have thought it should be OK, although no doubt there will be short-term volatility in all stocks. DYOR, as always!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Alistair said:

    tyson said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    So to be clear you are defending the poster? Let's be clear here.

    I don't like the poster personally. It is an exaggeration of a problem that is a concern for a lot of people, but hardly the first exaggeration by either side in this horrible campaign. We've reached a similar position as that in the US with Trump, in which a certain percentage of the population have lost all patience with political correctness and are excited by politicians that are seen to be ignoring - or deliberately flying in the face of - political correctness taboos altogether.

    The poster is intended for the WWC base of Leave; Gove can then come out and say he "shudders" to reflect the middle class Leavers.
    A very lukewarm response to my question. Ditto Rochdale. The poster is effing disgusting. Pure and simple.
    What I despise about this poster (apart from its obvious Goebbels iconography) is that it has sod all to do with the EU. The people depicted in this poster are displaced populations from war torn areas outside the EU. It would be similar to Italy having a campaign against the EU showing a boat full of migrants.

    That is why for me the idea of a European army is entirely persuasive- a joint force to deal with the Libyan coastline, the borders onto Turkey, and to help with reconstruction of war torn areas. This is in all our interests.
    Ignoring the point about an EU army for a moment. Are you actually suggesting that Western powers should invade yet another muslim country that has been taken over by extremists?

    Have you learnt ansolutrly nothing from Afghanistan of Iraq?
    Afghanistan was badly messed up because Bush wanted to hurry up and get on with invading Iraq and didnt wan to do the job properly in Afghanistan. Iraq wasn't already taken over my extremists - the complete lack of anything appraoching a coherent post-invasion and occupation plan resulted in the extremist takeover.
    Invading Iraq probably didn't help but none of the problems that have doomed the current invasion of Afghanistan, and the various other ones in history, would have been solved by George W Bush concentrating on it for longer.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556

    Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.

    Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain

    Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.
    He said

    Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.

    I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.

    Then included a link to this video

    https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383


    Why do you think Jo Cox's murder has created more shy leavers - On balance I think that it will have strengthened the young vote for remain at the very least

    Why? Because they say so. REMAIN became more aggressive.

    Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne.

    REMAIN behaves as a Child. The response to the Child is to behave as a Child, Adult or Parent.

    LEAVE wish not to respond as Child.
    Parent is not possible as debate is poisoned.
    LEAVE will act as Adult and ignore the Child.

    Adult response to the child means the child wins, in the short term, we see this now.

    Voters will act as Parent in the privacy of the voting booth.

    It is an excellent book, read when I was a teenager in the early 80s.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Wanderer said:

    lol, 4.8

    It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.
    Are we expecting any polls?
    If they stick to past schedules, an ORB tonight. Possibly YouGov too
    Little that could have been leaked.

    Is it really just sentiment driving this?! Shame I am at work and can't bet.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975
    edited June 2016
    No wonder the banks went bust if the big city hitters traded debt and equity with the same underlying disregard for value that they seem to be doing so now in the EU referendum market.

    The most pessimistic forecast I can gauge for "Brexit" is a 28% chance based entirely off the last Survation poll - which is the worst poll for Brexit for a while. It's now 20%, which is bonkers.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176

    Days like today on the betting markets are the days that flush out who are the traditional probabilists and who are the Bayesians.

    Can you elaborate?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894

    Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.

    Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suit

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,291
    Pulpstar said:

    Days like today on the betting markets are the days that flush out who are the traditional probabilists and who are the Bayesians.

    In favour of leaving EU4.9 £20.00
    On BF moving towards 5!!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    chestnut said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Anyone know who did this?

    Brexit poll in N Ireland edition of The Sun look at the Unionist/Nationalist split https://t.co/WV2KwlM9TX

    Not seen that but there's another Northern Ireland poll here:

    http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/06/18/news/poll-shows-increased-support-in-north-for-brexit-567859/

    60-40 for Remain. Another Remain stronghold where they are supposed to be further ahead than they are.
    I hear on Twitter another NI poll is due - Lucid Something?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i

    Ford dont make any cars in this country

    Also they're not the biggest carmaker in the world by a long way
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    Seems to be a stampede.
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    If you say so

    As a shy LEAVE, I do say so.
    Are you really a shy leaver and if so why are you shy
    Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne. Actor A acts as a child. If B responds as a child, B loses. If B responds as an adult, A wins.

    I have one or 2 friends that tell me I MUST vote IN. It is clear they are not interested in my opinion or that they will agree to disagree.

    I am not interested in being called racist, murder apologist, bigot, old fashioned, Little Englander. I dont want to upset a someone with a different opinion, especially a friend or employment stakeholder. I dont want a brick through my window or tires slashed.

    Aggressive campaigns always result thus. REMAIN behave as child. LEAVE behave as Parents, or Adults. Adult behaviour is the 'shy' voter.

    Its not rocket science.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    How much money has it taken to shift Leave from ~3.8 to ~5?
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Roger said:

    Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.

    Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suit

    The drift on Leave this morning is something to behold. Presumably the Leave boosters on here will be putting their lives' savings and their house on the 4.9...?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,291
    edited June 2016
    6K just went on Remain at 4.7

    edit - sorry meant leave
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i

    Ford dont make any cars in this country
    They make car parts though.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    JohnO said:

    My 88 year old dad has put a Remain poster in his window...likely assisted by my sister!

    Every little helps....
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i

    Nothing to see here. Fingers in ears. Etc etc.
This discussion has been closed.