Cycling today, I saw 30 Remain posters and none for Leave. Mind, I was travelling through Hackney and Islington. I also saw 1 poster for Jeremy Corbyn, which I thought was a bit strange!
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
I see no remain posters around at all, but a fair few leave ones. But then this is north hampshire.
Cycling today, I saw 30 Remain posters and none for Leave. Mind, I was travelling through Hackney and Islington. I also saw 1 poster for Jeremy Corbyn, which I thought was a bit strange!
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
I see no remain posters around at all, but a fair few leave ones. But then this is north hampshire.
Locally (mid Essex) the Leave posters are on big buildings or in fields. The Remain ones are in ordinary house windows.
Yes, when the Leavers parrot the "Let's take control!" slogan, I wonder how many of them stop to consider just which "us" Boris and co are referring to.
Regarding Crabb, I don't think he is as poor as suggested, he just isn't one of the first division candidates. Thats an advantage as he isn't tainted with the record of the government as a Cabinet Minister would be.
You also have to consider how the game has changed. Electing a leader who isn't posh, isn't obviously mad, could try and connect with an electorate who have drifted away from the Tory glitterati and their lecture hector style, thats how you win elections. A Leave win makes it for Boris to lose (or will Gove be his Brutus?), a Remain win that ousts Cameron ousts Osborne and surely May.
Considering I thought that was value at 3's I feel a bit of a mug....but then I looked at the stock market and sterling and felt much better. The market has spoken.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
SKY seems to have come out for REMAIN even if it's undeclared.
Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.
Times said yesterday that Javid was on-board for a Crabb leadership bid, with a promise of Chancellorship.
Glad I took Crabb up at 19 a couple of months ago.
It would still be a meteoric rise. The Tory system does allow for that, but it's difficult to rely on.
There is no way these two lightweights will get anywhere near the Leadership/Chancellor.
Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.
Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.
I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.
Leave need to handle the Warsi story with care. She was no friend of Dave so claiming her apostasy was a No 10 stitch-up is patently ludicrous. Before Sadiq Khan she was Britain's most prominent Muslim politician, so her critique of Leave and it tactics has considerable heft. Boris needs to make a statement urgently, begging her forgiveness. He could also opt for some striking symbolism: say, burning a copy of Farage's poster while crying 'Believe me, Sayeeda, he is not us!'
All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.
They were very accurate last May
I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.
I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.
This Thursday – June 23rd 2016 – the country goes to the polls to decide on Britain’s future in Europe. It is a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote but we are expecting considerable volumes being traded through the Charles Stanley Direct platform as investors react to the news. Whatever the results, we anticipate that we may experience higher volumes and more market volatility than usual on the 23rd June and in the days following the vote. The immediate impact is likely to be felt most directly by those of you wishing to trade shares during such market conditions.
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All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.
They were very accurate last May
I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.
I'm out there campaigning. Posters and billboards aren't a good indicator of anything.
Leave need to handle the Warsi story with care. She was no friend of Dave so claiming her apostasy was a No 10 stitch-up is patently ludicrous. Before Sadiq Khan she was Britain's most prominent Muslim politician, so her critique of Leave and it tactics has considerable heft. Boris needs to make a statement urgently, begging her forgiveness. He could also opt for some striking symbolism: say, burning a copy of Farage's poster while crying 'Believe me, Sayeeda, he is not us!'
She is irrelevent to 99% of the population.
REMAIN has nothing to go on. They are trying to create momentum. Bof.
All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.
They were very accurate last May
I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.
I never put up any posters in my house. And I am basically vote Leave for the village where I live.
I don't want to politicise myself in the eyes of my neighbours. I think many English are the same.
Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.
Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.
I was surprised when the Speccie went for Brexit as most of their content has been reluctant Remain and their columnists too. Clearly it's another case of the editorial line being led by the readership. That said, its Brexit editorial was fabulous.
Edited extra bit: in a bit of a bad mood. The Warsi 'story' has irritated me a lot more than anything else in this campaign, I think. It's of no significance, yet is being drummed up as some sort of major move. Faisal Islam/Sky are either idiots or incompetent.
Round here in deepest rural Sussex, there are a reasonable number of Vote Leave posters up, but I think I've seen only one Remain poster. Make of this what you will. I'm making nothing of it.
Yes, when the Leavers parrot the "Let's take control!" slogan, I wonder how many of them stop to consider just which "us" Boris and co are referring to.
With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.
I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.
Do you have a link to that assertion?
The rallies in GBP and FTSE are classic bear squeezes driven by the lack of LEAVE follow-through in the polls. My interpretation of the FTSE chart is that the next major move will be down, but that this move will start from around 6600, perhaps a bit higher. That would fit in with a REMAIN win on Thursday and a completion of the rally which started last week. If we hit 6600 before the referendum then all bets are off.
Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though
If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).
Round here in deepest rural Sussex, there are a reasonable number of Vote Leave posters up, but I think I've seen only one Remain poster. Make of this what you will. I'm making nothing of it.
Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though
If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).
Will GSk be OK ? It's the only share I hold outright for the moment.
Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though
If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).
So to be clear you are defending the poster? Let's be clear here.
I don't like the poster personally. It is an exaggeration of a problem that is a concern for a lot of people, but hardly the first exaggeration by either side in this horrible campaign. We've reached a similar position as that in the US with Trump, in which a certain percentage of the population have lost all patience with political correctness and are excited by politicians that are seen to be ignoring - or deliberately flying in the face of - political correctness taboos altogether.
The poster is intended for the WWC base of Leave; Gove can then come out and say he "shudders" to reflect the middle class Leavers.
A very lukewarm response to my question. Ditto Rochdale. The poster is effing disgusting. Pure and simple.
What I despise about this poster (apart from its obvious Goebbels iconography) is that it has sod all to do with the EU. The people depicted in this poster are displaced populations from war torn areas outside the EU. It would be similar to Italy having a campaign against the EU showing a boat full of migrants.
That is why for me the idea of a European army is entirely persuasive- a joint force to deal with the Libyan coastline, the borders onto Turkey, and to help with reconstruction of war torn areas. This is in all our interests.
Ignoring the point about an EU army for a moment. Are you actually suggesting that Western powers should invade yet another muslim country that has been taken over by extremists?
Have you learnt ansolutrly nothing from Afghanistan of Iraq?
Afghanistan was badly messed up because Bush wanted to hurry up and get on with invading Iraq and didnt wan to do the job properly in Afghanistan. Iraq wasn't already taken over my extremists - the complete lack of anything appraoching a coherent post-invasion and occupation plan resulted in the extremist takeover.
Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.
In your dreams maybe. A narrow Remain win fires the starting gun for the next one. A Neverendum ensues.
Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
Hard to disagree with that. These price movements are huge.
I presume either private polls or foresight of polls tonight showing a big swingback to Remain.
I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.
Want me to list some of the insults Leavers use?
I don't think I have ever intentionally insulted anyone, well certainly not over the EU issue, but I have been insulted time and again. I have quite gotten used to it over the years. Nonetheless, I think Mr. Dancer has a point - the well of political discourse has been poisoned and many people will not forget or forgive.
Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
Hard to disagree with that. These price movements are huge.
I presume either private polls or foresight of polls tonight showing a big swingback to Remain.
Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
I am very tempted to cash out some of the £13k I have gradually built up on Remain. The price movements are interesting. However, if it is based on polling then Leave may lengthen further. Assuming the polls will be released and are not private polls.
Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
Not necessarily new information. You'd expect more volume in the final few days because the big-hitters don't want to tie up their capital weeks in advance.
Edited extra bit: in a bit of a bad mood. The Warsi 'story' has irritated me a lot more than anything else in this campaign, I think. It's of no significance, yet is being drummed up as some sort of major move. Faisal Islam/Sky are either idiots or incompetent.
There appears to be a slight disagreement on twitter between Andrew Neil and Faisal Islam. I would put my money on AN myself. FI is getting far too up himself.
Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.
Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.
I was surprised when the Speccie went for Brexit as most of their content has been reluctant Remain and their columnists too. Clearly it's another case of the editorial line being led by the readership. That said, its Brexit editorial was fabulous.
Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though
If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).
Will GSk be OK ? It's the only share I hold outright for the moment.
Revenue is around 38% European. Pharma is intrinsically defensive, so I'd have thought it should be OK, although no doubt there will be short-term volatility in all stocks. DYOR, as always!
So to be clear you are defending the poster? Let's be clear here.
I don't like the poster personally. It is an exaggeration of a problem that is a concern for a lot of people, but hardly the first exaggeration by either side in this horrible campaign. We've reached a similar position as that in the US with Trump, in which a certain percentage of the population have lost all patience with political correctness and are excited by politicians that are seen to be ignoring - or deliberately flying in the face of - political correctness taboos altogether.
The poster is intended for the WWC base of Leave; Gove can then come out and say he "shudders" to reflect the middle class Leavers.
A very lukewarm response to my question. Ditto Rochdale. The poster is effing disgusting. Pure and simple.
What I despise about this poster (apart from its obvious Goebbels iconography) is that it has sod all to do with the EU. The people depicted in this poster are displaced populations from war torn areas outside the EU. It would be similar to Italy having a campaign against the EU showing a boat full of migrants.
That is why for me the idea of a European army is entirely persuasive- a joint force to deal with the Libyan coastline, the borders onto Turkey, and to help with reconstruction of war torn areas. This is in all our interests.
Ignoring the point about an EU army for a moment. Are you actually suggesting that Western powers should invade yet another muslim country that has been taken over by extremists?
Have you learnt ansolutrly nothing from Afghanistan of Iraq?
Afghanistan was badly messed up because Bush wanted to hurry up and get on with invading Iraq and didnt wan to do the job properly in Afghanistan. Iraq wasn't already taken over my extremists - the complete lack of anything appraoching a coherent post-invasion and occupation plan resulted in the extremist takeover.
Invading Iraq probably didn't help but none of the problems that have doomed the current invasion of Afghanistan, and the various other ones in history, would have been solved by George W Bush concentrating on it for longer.
Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.
He said
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
Why do you think Jo Cox's murder has created more shy leavers - On balance I think that it will have strengthened the young vote for remain at the very least
Why? Because they say so. REMAIN became more aggressive.
Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne.
REMAIN behaves as a Child. The response to the Child is to behave as a Child, Adult or Parent.
LEAVE wish not to respond as Child. Parent is not possible as debate is poisoned. LEAVE will act as Adult and ignore the Child.
Adult response to the child means the child wins, in the short term, we see this now.
Voters will act as Parent in the privacy of the voting booth.
It is an excellent book, read when I was a teenager in the early 80s.
No wonder the banks went bust if the big city hitters traded debt and equity with the same underlying disregard for value that they seem to be doing so now in the EU referendum market.
The most pessimistic forecast I can gauge for "Brexit" is a 28% chance based entirely off the last Survation poll - which is the worst poll for Brexit for a while. It's now 20%, which is bonkers.
Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suit
Are you really a shy leaver and if so why are you shy
Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne. Actor A acts as a child. If B responds as a child, B loses. If B responds as an adult, A wins.
I have one or 2 friends that tell me I MUST vote IN. It is clear they are not interested in my opinion or that they will agree to disagree.
I am not interested in being called racist, murder apologist, bigot, old fashioned, Little Englander. I dont want to upset a someone with a different opinion, especially a friend or employment stakeholder. I dont want a brick through my window or tires slashed.
Aggressive campaigns always result thus. REMAIN behave as child. LEAVE behave as Parents, or Adults. Adult behaviour is the 'shy' voter.
Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suit
The drift on Leave this morning is something to behold. Presumably the Leave boosters on here will be putting their lives' savings and their house on the 4.9...?
Comments
You also have to consider how the game has changed. Electing a leader who isn't posh, isn't obviously mad, could try and connect with an electorate who have drifted away from the Tory glitterati and their lecture hector style, thats how you win elections. A Leave win makes it for Boris to lose (or will Gove be his Brutus?), a Remain win that ousts Cameron ousts Osborne and surely May.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
The #Brexit vote will come down to turnout. Brilliant infographic from @mattsmithetc https://t.co/2hm2Df3irP
Genuinely
SKY seems to have come out for REMAIN even if it's undeclared.
I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.
Free money trading.
They were very accurate last May
I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.
https://peterreedijk.wordpress.com/2016/06/18/leave-while-you-can-your-vote-will-never-again-make-a-difference-in-brussels/
You have your chance this week, take it.
LEAVE will turnout whatever. They have waited 19 yrs to vote. REMAIN have never voted either, but they never wanted to.
This Thursday – June 23rd 2016 – the country goes to the polls to decide on Britain’s future in Europe. It is a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote but we are expecting considerable volumes being traded through the Charles Stanley Direct platform as investors react to the news.
Whatever the results, we anticipate that we may experience higher volumes and more market volatility than usual on the 23rd June and in the days following the vote. The immediate impact is likely to be felt most directly by those of you wishing to trade shares during such market conditions.
It is possible that market makers will limit the size of orders that can be placed online and be slow to answer phones. In practice this may mean that you are more likely to have to place a limit order instead of a market order and it may take longer for us to be able to place such trades. Foreign exchange rates could also witness fluctuations and this has the potential to impact overseas trades placed during this time. We ask for your understanding if you are thus affected.
Our experienced Edinburgh-based helpdesk may also receive a surge in call and query volumes. We will respond to queries as quickly and thoroughly as possible, but once again we would be grateful for the forbearance of our clients in the event of unusually high volumes.
Shame I didn't stick a few zeroes on the end!!
REMAIN has nothing to go on. They are trying to create momentum. Bof.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though
As admitted by a leading remain figure.
In a more serious manner, you do know stock prices go up and down all the time right?
You might not have time to educate yourself between tweets so thought I should point it out.
I don't want to politicise myself in the eyes of my neighbours. I think many English are the same.
Edited extra bit: in a bit of a bad mood. The Warsi 'story' has irritated me a lot more than anything else in this campaign, I think. It's of no significance, yet is being drummed up as some sort of major move. Faisal Islam/Sky are either idiots or incompetent.
I think both statements have been demonstrated. Besides, I draw your attention to the expression "I wouldnt be surprised".
Most curious.
Why don't you explain to them how markets work...
I presume either private polls or foresight of polls tonight showing a big swingback to Remain.
You'd wait until 1pm and get sixes, wouldn't you?
Looks like Remain need to be several points ahead.
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
Then included a link to this video
https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y
Is it really just sentiment driving this?! Shame I am at work and can't bet.
The most pessimistic forecast I can gauge for "Brexit" is a 28% chance based entirely off the last Survation poll - which is the worst poll for Brexit for a while. It's now 20%, which is bonkers.
Also they're not the biggest carmaker in the world by a long way
I have one or 2 friends that tell me I MUST vote IN. It is clear they are not interested in my opinion or that they will agree to disagree.
I am not interested in being called racist, murder apologist, bigot, old fashioned, Little Englander. I dont want to upset a someone with a different opinion, especially a friend or employment stakeholder. I dont want a brick through my window or tires slashed.
Aggressive campaigns always result thus. REMAIN behave as child. LEAVE behave as Parents, or Adults. Adult behaviour is the 'shy' voter.
Its not rocket science.
edit - sorry meant leave