politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thursday could end up becoming a referendum on Nigel Farage
Comments
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Are you really a shy leaver and if so why are you shyJessieShamus said:
As a shy LEAVE, I do say so.Big_G_NorthWales said:If you say so
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Where are you in north Hants?Slackbladder said:
I see no remain posters around at all, but a fair few leave ones. But then this is north hampshire.adamandcat said:Cycling today, I saw 30 Remain posters and none for Leave. Mind, I was travelling through Hackney and Islington. I also saw 1 poster for Jeremy Corbyn, which I thought was a bit strange!
Stark_Dawning said:
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.Fenman said:Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
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Locally (mid Essex) the Leave posters are on big buildings or in fields. The Remain ones are in ordinary house windows.Slackbladder said:
I see no remain posters around at all, but a fair few leave ones. But then this is north hampshire.adamandcat said:Cycling today, I saw 30 Remain posters and none for Leave. Mind, I was travelling through Hackney and Islington. I also saw 1 poster for Jeremy Corbyn, which I thought was a bit strange!
Stark_Dawning said:
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.Fenman said:Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
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Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.Scott_P said:
Even Fraser Nelson, who is a Leaver, gets itFeersumEnjineeya said:Yes, when the Leavers parrot the "Let's take control!" slogan, I wonder how many of them stop to consider just which "us" Boris and co are referring to.
@FraserNelson: The best cartoons say - at a glance - what scribblers like me would struggle to say in 1000 words. By @mortenmorland https://t.co/pvqIIIpiBk0 -
Regarding Crabb, I don't think he is as poor as suggested, he just isn't one of the first division candidates. Thats an advantage as he isn't tainted with the record of the government as a Cabinet Minister would be.
You also have to consider how the game has changed. Electing a leader who isn't posh, isn't obviously mad, could try and connect with an electorate who have drifted away from the Tory glitterati and their lecture hector style, thats how you win elections. A Leave win makes it for Boris to lose (or will Gove be his Brutus?), a Remain win that ousts Cameron ousts Osborne and surely May.0 -
Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain0 -
Paul Kirkby
The #Brexit vote will come down to turnout. Brilliant infographic from @mattsmithetc https://t.co/2hm2Df3irP0 -
All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.0
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Your withering assessments of the campaign, betting odds and polls have been one of the highlights of PB for me this referendum.SouthamObserver said:The Leave price is, once again, absurd.
Genuinely
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Considering I thought that was value at 3's I feel a bit of a mug....but then I looked at the stock market and sterling and felt much better. The market has spoken.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.4
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I really don't want to stake more on that market but, jeez, that's ridiculous.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.40 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
SKY seems to have come out for REMAIN even if it's undeclared.0 -
@Simon_Nixon: Global stocks surge as polls suggest Britons will vote to remain in EU https://t.co/MMqO2d0Tjs > confirmation Brexit warnings right0
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With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.4
I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.0 -
It is.Wanderer said:
I really don't want to stake more on that market but, jeez, that's ridiculous.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.40 -
There is no way these two lightweights will get anywhere near the Leadership/Chancellor.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It would still be a meteoric rise. The Tory system does allow for that, but it's difficult to rely on.rottenborough said:
Times said yesterday that Javid was on-board for a Crabb leadership bid, with a promise of Chancellorship.RochdalePioneers said:
I was pooh-poohed when I tipped Stephen Crabb as a contender if Remain wins. But he seems quietly competent unlike Javid, not southern posh like Osbrown, not pop-eyed loon like Boris or May. A John Major for 2016.TCPoliticalBetting said:Ruth does not like Boris. She is also close to Stephen Crabb and is rumoured to be on his team bidding to replace Cameron, when there is an election.
Glad I took Crabb up at 19 a couple of months ago.0 -
Chances of it never being lower than that before Thursday I would say are zero.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.4
Free money trading.0 -
We couldn't live without Southam.....when he comes to a view, he likes us all to know about it, again, and againPulpstar said:
Your withering assessments of the campaign, betting odds and polls have been one of the highlights of PB for me this referendum.SouthamObserver said:The Leave price is, once again, absurd.
Genuinely
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Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.chestnut said:All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
They were very accurate last May0 -
Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.KentRising said:Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.
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I've just put another £100 on at 4.5. Failed to resistTheScreamingEagles said:
It is.Wanderer said:
I really don't want to stake more on that market but, jeez, that's ridiculous.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.4
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Mr. Eagles, that's a shade condescending of you.
I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.0 -
Read it and weep
https://peterreedijk.wordpress.com/2016/06/18/leave-while-you-can-your-vote-will-never-again-make-a-difference-in-brussels/
You have your chance this week, take it.0 -
Do you have a link to that assertion?JessieShamus said:
With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.4
I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.0 -
Leave need to handle the Warsi story with care. She was no friend of Dave so claiming her apostasy was a No 10 stitch-up is patently ludicrous. Before Sadiq Khan she was Britain's most prominent Muslim politician, so her critique of Leave and it tactics has considerable heft. Boris needs to make a statement urgently, begging her forgiveness. He could also opt for some striking symbolism: say, burning a copy of Farage's poster while crying 'Believe me, Sayeeda, he is not us!'0
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Boris needs to learn that and repeat it in the next debate....marke09 said:Labour Leave on fire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0KMk0kdO5i80 -
Thunderstorms forecasted for Thursday.PlatoSaid said:Paul Kirkby
The #Brexit vote will come down to turnout. Brilliant infographic from @mattsmithetc https://t.co/2hm2Df3irP
LEAVE will turnout whatever. They have waited 19 yrs to vote. REMAIN have never voted either, but they never wanted to.0 -
I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.TheScreamingEagles said:
Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.chestnut said:All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
They were very accurate last May0 -
Want me to list some of the insults Leavers use?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's a shade condescending of you.
I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.0 -
If we are talking posters I've seen a lot of Leave in rural Derbyshire and a lot of Remain in rural Oxfordshire. I don't think tells you anything tbh.0
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Punters are assuming that the don't knows split 60/40 for REMAIN - and that they turn out to vote.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.4
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I'm out there campaigning. Posters and billboards aren't a good indicator of anything.RochdalePioneers said:
I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.TheScreamingEagles said:
Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.chestnut said:All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
They were very accurate last May0 -
I put £3 on the referendum result and I am now guaranteed £5 either way.
Shame I didn't stick a few zeroes on the end!!0 -
Don't have enough in my Betfair account to fiddle with this. If Ladbrokes gets to 4+ I may give that a look (currently 3.75).0
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She is irrelevent to 99% of the population.Stark_Dawning said:Leave need to handle the Warsi story with care. She was no friend of Dave so claiming her apostasy was a No 10 stitch-up is patently ludicrous. Before Sadiq Khan she was Britain's most prominent Muslim politician, so her critique of Leave and it tactics has considerable heft. Boris needs to make a statement urgently, begging her forgiveness. He could also opt for some striking symbolism: say, burning a copy of Farage's poster while crying 'Believe me, Sayeeda, he is not us!'
REMAIN has nothing to go on. They are trying to create momentum. Bof.0 -
Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though
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Not sure what punters are looking at, to be fair, other than the mood music.David_Evershed said:
Punters are assuming that the don't knows split 60/40 for REMAIN - and that they turn out to vote.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.40 -
Big companies love to make more money due to depressed staff costs shocker.Scott_P said:@Simon_Nixon: Global stocks surge as polls suggest Britons will vote to remain in EU https://t.co/MMqO2d0Tjs > confirmation Brexit warnings right
As admitted by a leading remain figure.
In a more serious manner, you do know stock prices go up and down all the time right?
You might not have time to educate yourself between tweets so thought I should point it out.0 -
No matter how much you bet on your winners, you'll always wish you put more onTheWhiteRabbit said:I put £3 on the referendum result and I am now guaranteed £5 either way.
Shame I didn't stick a few zeroes on the end!!
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I never put up any posters in my house. And I am basically vote Leave for the village where I live.RochdalePioneers said:
I don't look at posters or boards going up as any kind of indicator. A single activist can put up dozens of garden stakes. When I toured the Hebrides a few weeks back there were Leave boards from one end of Lewis and Harris to the other. Was the work of a handful of activists I was told, unreflective of the mood on the island.TheScreamingEagles said:
Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.chestnut said:All these Remain anecdotes about posters going up in Islington and Oxford are very reassuring. It's the same losing demographic as last May.
They were very accurate last May
I don't want to politicise myself in the eyes of my neighbours. I think many English are the same.0 -
I was surprised when the Speccie went for Brexit as most of their content has been reluctant Remain and their columnists too. Clearly it's another case of the editorial line being led by the readership. That said, its Brexit editorial was fabulous.Scott_P said:
Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.KentRising said:Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.
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I take most anecdotes with a pinch of salt because there is precious little impartiality.TheScreamingEagles said:Odd PB Leavers seem to ignore/dismiss my reports from the marginals in West Yorkshire.
They were very accurate last May0 -
Mr. Eagles, you can post what you like.
Edited extra bit: in a bit of a bad mood. The Warsi 'story' has irritated me a lot more than anything else in this campaign, I think. It's of no significance, yet is being drummed up as some sort of major move. Faisal Islam/Sky are either idiots or incompetent.0 -
Round here in deepest rural Sussex, there are a reasonable number of Vote Leave posters up, but I think I've seen only one Remain poster. Make of this what you will. I'm making nothing of it.0
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lol, 4.80
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Not unless he's switched to my side recently too?KentRising said:
Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.Scott_P said:
Even Fraser Nelson, who is a Leaver, gets itFeersumEnjineeya said:Yes, when the Leavers parrot the "Let's take control!" slogan, I wonder how many of them stop to consider just which "us" Boris and co are referring to.
@FraserNelson: The best cartoons say - at a glance - what scribblers like me would struggle to say in 1000 words. By @mortenmorland https://t.co/pvqIIIpiBk0 -
Indeed. I don't spend my time worryin' 'bout the way things might have been.Pulpstar said:
No matter how much you bet on your winners, you'll always wish you put more onTheWhiteRabbit said:I put £3 on the referendum result and I am now guaranteed £5 either way.
Shame I didn't stick a few zeroes on the end!!0 -
What that the EU accounts have never passed audit? Or that tax money is used to bump up share prices?TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you have a link to that assertion?JessieShamus said:
With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.4
I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.
I think both statements have been demonstrated. Besides, I draw your attention to the expression "I wouldnt be surprised".0 -
The rallies in GBP and FTSE are classic bear squeezes driven by the lack of LEAVE follow-through in the polls. My interpretation of the FTSE chart is that the next major move will be down, but that this move will start from around 6600, perhaps a bit higher. That would fit in with a REMAIN win on Thursday and a completion of the rally which started last week. If we hit 6600 before the referendum then all bets are off.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you have a link to that assertion?JessieShamus said:
With polls at 50/50 and in MoE, sounds like good money.TheScreamingEagles said:Safe space warning for Leavers.
Leave just hit 4.4
I wouldnt be surprised if money from the unaudited EU was being used to pump the markets, just like they do to keep share prices up.0 -
4.8 now.
Most curious.0 -
Very wise - I'll be advising the same to clients (as i'm assuming remain wins),Pulpstar said:Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though0 -
If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).Pulpstar said:Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though0 -
That you have some pretty unpleasant neigbours?Richard_Nabavi said:Round here in deepest rural Sussex, there are a reasonable number of Vote Leave posters up, but I think I've seen only one Remain poster. Make of this what you will. I'm making nothing of it.
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Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.0
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Will GSk be OK ? It's the only share I hold outright for the moment.Richard_Nabavi said:
If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).Pulpstar said:Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though0 -
It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.Wanderer said:lol, 4.8
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Agreed but I don't see it.Richard_Nabavi said:
If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).Pulpstar said:Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though0 -
Afghanistan was badly messed up because Bush wanted to hurry up and get on with invading Iraq and didnt wan to do the job properly in Afghanistan. Iraq wasn't already taken over my extremists - the complete lack of anything appraoching a coherent post-invasion and occupation plan resulted in the extremist takeover.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ignoring the point about an EU army for a moment. Are you actually suggesting that Western powers should invade yet another muslim country that has been taken over by extremists?tyson said:
What I despise about this poster (apart from its obvious Goebbels iconography) is that it has sod all to do with the EU. The people depicted in this poster are displaced populations from war torn areas outside the EU. It would be similar to Italy having a campaign against the EU showing a boat full of migrants.Jobabob said:
A very lukewarm response to my question. Ditto Rochdale. The poster is effing disgusting. Pure and simple.KentRising said:
I don't like the poster personally. It is an exaggeration of a problem that is a concern for a lot of people, but hardly the first exaggeration by either side in this horrible campaign. We've reached a similar position as that in the US with Trump, in which a certain percentage of the population have lost all patience with political correctness and are excited by politicians that are seen to be ignoring - or deliberately flying in the face of - political correctness taboos altogether.Jobabob said:So to be clear you are defending the poster? Let's be clear here.
The poster is intended for the WWC base of Leave; Gove can then come out and say he "shudders" to reflect the middle class Leavers.
That is why for me the idea of a European army is entirely persuasive- a joint force to deal with the Libyan coastline, the borders onto Turkey, and to help with reconstruction of war torn areas. This is in all our interests.
Have you learnt ansolutrly nothing from Afghanistan of Iraq?0 -
Are we expecting any polls?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.Wanderer said:lol, 4.8
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In your dreams maybe. A narrow Remain win fires the starting gun for the next one. A Neverendum ensues.Stark_Dawning said:
Could be a backlash against Farage and his poster. I'm convinced Leave will be victorious, but if Remain scrapes home it will kill the Brexit cause stone dead. Thanks to Farage, all of Boris and Gove's good work to make euro-scepticism respectable will be undone. Euro-scepticism will be equated in the public imagination with swivel-eyed loons for ever. It will be reduced to a fringe movement.Fenman said:Suddenly, overnight, Oxford is covered.in remain posters
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Up to 4 on Ladbrokes, but given the way things are going I might leave it a while.0
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Hard to disagree with that. These price movements are huge.AlastairMeeks said:Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
I presume either private polls or foresight of polls tonight showing a big swingback to Remain.0 -
If they stick to past schedules, an ORB tonight. Possibly YouGov tooTheWhiteRabbit said:
Are we expecting any polls?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.Wanderer said:lol, 4.8
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Just topped up at 5TheScreamingEagles said:4.8 now.
Most curious.0 -
I don't think I have ever intentionally insulted anyone, well certainly not over the EU issue, but I have been insulted time and again. I have quite gotten used to it over the years. Nonetheless, I think Mr. Dancer has a point - the well of political discourse has been poisoned and many people will not forget or forgive.TheScreamingEagles said:
Want me to list some of the insults Leavers use?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's a shade condescending of you.
I do wonder whether some Remainers realise that Leave supporters aren't going to forget being called xenophobes, racists, toxic, divisive and so on, regardless of the result. The idea that people can reasonably reach differing conclusions (the vary basis of democracy itself) seems to have passed some people by.0 -
Someone's found their crystal ball.Casino_Royale said:
Hard to disagree with that. These price movements are huge.AlastairMeeks said:Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
I presume either private polls or foresight of polls tonight showing a big swingback to Remain.0 -
Days like today on the betting markets are the days that flush out who are the traditional probabilists and who are the Bayesians.0
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Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain0 -
Sky is beyond stupid since Thursday.Morris_Dancer said:Just watched some Sky News. Apparently the referendum is determining every stock market in the world. Even more surprisingly, Warsi's top story. That's just ridiculous. She did nothing in the campaign to Leave, but her 'defection' is top story?
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What was the lowest that Yes got to in SindyRef? 4?, 3.9?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.Wanderer said:lol, 4.8
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If you want to back Leave, would you plunge in now - or wait?TheScreamingEagles said:4.8 now.
Most curious.
You'd wait until 1pm and get sixes, wouldn't you?0 -
I am very tempted to cash out some of the £13k I have gradually built up on Remain. The price movements are interesting. However, if it is based on polling then Leave may lengthen further. Assuming the polls will be released and are not private polls.0
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Not necessarily new information. You'd expect more volume in the final few days because the big-hitters don't want to tie up their capital weeks in advance.AlastairMeeks said:Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
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My 88 year old dad has put a Remain poster in his window...likely assisted by my sister!0
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There appears to be a slight disagreement on twitter between Andrew Neil and Faisal Islam. I would put my money on AN myself. FI is getting far too up himself.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, you can post what you like.
Edited extra bit: in a bit of a bad mood. The Warsi 'story' has irritated me a lot more than anything else in this campaign, I think. It's of no significance, yet is being drummed up as some sort of major move. Faisal Islam/Sky are either idiots or incompetent.
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No surprise to a long-term subscriber.KentRising said:
I was surprised when the Speccie went for Brexit as most of their content has been reluctant Remain and their columnists too. Clearly it's another case of the editorial line being led by the readership. That said, its Brexit editorial was fabulous.Scott_P said:
Actually, you may be right. I read most of his posts as favouring Brexit, and he is the editor of a Bexit supporting mag, but he may indeed vote remain himself.KentRising said:Isn't Nelson a Remainer? Despite The Spectator going the other way.
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Interesting tweet on @britainelects about turn-out (its a graphic).
Looks like Remain need to be several points ahead.0 -
In favour of leaving EU4.9 £20.00AlastairMeeks said:Days like today on the betting markets are the days that flush out who are the traditional probabilists and who are the Bayesians.
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Revenue is around 38% European. Pharma is intrinsically defensive, so I'd have thought it should be OK, although no doubt there will be short-term volatility in all stocks. DYOR, as always!Pulpstar said:
Will GSk be OK ? It's the only share I hold outright for the moment.Richard_Nabavi said:
If it's a Leave result, I'm expecting a big fall and I think it will indiscriminate. There may well be some good buying opportunities in companies which will actually benefit in the short-term from a big fall in sterling (basically any company whose business is predominantly outside Europe).Pulpstar said:Volume is going to be through the roof on stocks and shares on Friday.
I won't be trading, whatever the outcome though0 -
Invading Iraq probably didn't help but none of the problems that have doomed the current invasion of Afghanistan, and the various other ones in history, would have been solved by George W Bush concentrating on it for longer.Alistair said:
Afghanistan was badly messed up because Bush wanted to hurry up and get on with invading Iraq and didnt wan to do the job properly in Afghanistan. Iraq wasn't already taken over my extremists - the complete lack of anything appraoching a coherent post-invasion and occupation plan resulted in the extremist takeover.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ignoring the point about an EU army for a moment. Are you actually suggesting that Western powers should invade yet another muslim country that has been taken over by extremists?tyson said:
What I despise about this poster (apart from its obvious Goebbels iconography) is that it has sod all to do with the EU. The people depicted in this poster are displaced populations from war torn areas outside the EU. It would be similar to Italy having a campaign against the EU showing a boat full of migrants.Jobabob said:
A very lukewarm response to my question. Ditto Rochdale. The poster is effing disgusting. Pure and simple.KentRising said:
I don't like the poster personally. It is an exaggeration of a problem that is a concern for a lot of people, but hardly the first exaggeration by either side in this horrible campaign. We've reached a similar position as that in the US with Trump, in which a certain percentage of the population have lost all patience with political correctness and are excited by politicians that are seen to be ignoring - or deliberately flying in the face of - political correctness taboos altogether.Jobabob said:So to be clear you are defending the poster? Let's be clear here.
The poster is intended for the WWC base of Leave; Gove can then come out and say he "shudders" to reflect the middle class Leavers.
That is why for me the idea of a European army is entirely persuasive- a joint force to deal with the Libyan coastline, the borders onto Turkey, and to help with reconstruction of war torn areas. This is in all our interests.
Have you learnt ansolutrly nothing from Afghanistan of Iraq?0 -
He saidStark_Dawning said:
Has Brian given a reason for his apostasy? If he's repulsed by Farage's poster then that could be a worrying straw in the wind for Leave. I've got a horrible feeling that Farage might just have messed this up.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this should get a few Scots to back Leave now.
Brian Moore has switched from Leave to Remain
Heard experts, amateurs & bigots of all sides, then decided. I admit to weighing experts more highly than bigots.
I started as an EU Leaver. This pretty much sums up why I changed. Not asking anyone to agree but know these facts.
Then included a link to this video
https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y0 -
It is an excellent book, read when I was a teenager in the early 80s.JessieShamus said:
Why? Because they say so. REMAIN became more aggressive.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why do you think Jo Cox's murder has created more shy leavers - On balance I think that it will have strengthened the young vote for remain at the very least
Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne.
REMAIN behaves as a Child. The response to the Child is to behave as a Child, Adult or Parent.
LEAVE wish not to respond as Child.
Parent is not possible as debate is poisoned.
LEAVE will act as Adult and ignore the Child.
Adult response to the child means the child wins, in the short term, we see this now.
Voters will act as Parent in the privacy of the voting booth.0 -
Little that could have been leaked.TheScreamingEagles said:
If they stick to past schedules, an ORB tonight. Possibly YouGov tooTheWhiteRabbit said:
Are we expecting any polls?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's going to hit 6 before 1pm at this rate.Wanderer said:lol, 4.8
Is it really just sentiment driving this?! Shame I am at work and can't bet.0 -
@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i0
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No wonder the banks went bust if the big city hitters traded debt and equity with the same underlying disregard for value that they seem to be doing so now in the EU referendum market.
The most pessimistic forecast I can gauge for "Brexit" is a 28% chance based entirely off the last Survation poll - which is the worst poll for Brexit for a while. It's now 20%, which is bonkers.0 -
Can you elaborate?AlastairMeeks said:Days like today on the betting markets are the days that flush out who are the traditional probabilists and who are the Bayesians.
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Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suitAlastairMeeks said:Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
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On BF moving towards 5!!Pulpstar said:
In favour of leaving EU4.9 £20.00AlastairMeeks said:Days like today on the betting markets are the days that flush out who are the traditional probabilists and who are the Bayesians.
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I hear on Twitter another NI poll is due - Lucid Something?chestnut said:
Not seen that but there's another Northern Ireland poll here:PlatoSaid said:Anyone know who did this?
Brexit poll in N Ireland edition of The Sun look at the Unionist/Nationalist split https://t.co/WV2KwlM9TX
http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/06/18/news/poll-shows-increased-support-in-north-for-brexit-567859/
60-40 for Remain. Another Remain stronghold where they are supposed to be further ahead than they are.0 -
Ford dont make any cars in this countryScott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
Also they're not the biggest carmaker in the world by a long way0 -
Seems to be a stampede.0
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Read "Games People Play" by Eric Berne. Actor A acts as a child. If B responds as a child, B loses. If B responds as an adult, A wins.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you really a shy leaver and if so why are you shyJessieShamus said:
As a shy LEAVE, I do say so.Big_G_NorthWales said:If you say so
I have one or 2 friends that tell me I MUST vote IN. It is clear they are not interested in my opinion or that they will agree to disagree.
I am not interested in being called racist, murder apologist, bigot, old fashioned, Little Englander. I dont want to upset a someone with a different opinion, especially a friend or employment stakeholder. I dont want a brick through my window or tires slashed.
Aggressive campaigns always result thus. REMAIN behave as child. LEAVE behave as Parents, or Adults. Adult behaviour is the 'shy' voter.
Its not rocket science.0 -
How much money has it taken to shift Leave from ~3.8 to ~5?
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The drift on Leave this morning is something to behold. Presumably the Leave boosters on here will be putting their lives' savings and their house on the 4.9...?Roger said:
Maybe it's one of those mood shifts that happens suddenly like the moment the public decided they wouldn't be seen dead in a shell suitAlastairMeeks said:Given the volumes on the betting markets, I'm highly sceptical that the price is being manipulated. And I don't believe that the price is suddenly just being driven by sentiment. Clearly someone has some very concrete information to justify backing Remain down to such a short price on Betfair.
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6K just went on Remain at 4.7
edit - sorry meant leave
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They make car parts though.Alanbrooke said:
Ford dont make any cars in this countryScott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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Nothing to see here. Fingers in ears. Etc etc.Scott_P said:@BethRigby: BREAK World's biggest carmaker #Ford tells staff of "deep concerns abt "uncertainty/potential downsides" of #Brexit https://t.co/bYQ3LyIA6i
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