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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes poll finds voters feel more positive about leaving the EU than they do about staying

ComRes have conducted an online poll for the Independent on Sunday/People, whilst the poll doesn’t ask a EU referendum voting intention question, because ComRes prefer their phone polls for the EURef, the supplementaries are fascinating.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2016
    First - Like LEAVE? Or REMAIN?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    edited June 2016
    2nd like REMAIN or LEAVE
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Interesting findings.

    I think there will be a negative impact for LEAVE from what happened to poor Jo Cox but it will be small and might even be gone by polling day anyway.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    People moan all the time about reading to much into subsamples, surely with just 192 in one grouping this should fall into the exact same polling sin bin...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    bigjohnowls said:

    2nd like REMAIN or LEAVE

    What would happen if it was a tie? Would we all draw straws? :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/744236949532192769
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    FPT
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    nunu said:

    Freggles said:

    Public service announcement:
    I will be bringing back the trollface emoji tomorrow with the reinstatement of the campaigns.

    Brace yourselves.

    How do we use it? Like what buttons to press? Thanx!
    In seriousness, if you look under "Twitter emoji" on this page you will find all the available emoticons.

    :mrgreen::cookie::kiss:
    Where's the PB Tory emoticon?
    Is it one of these? :fearful::weary::dizzy::bawling:
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Surely the post-2pm sample size is too small to say anything worthwhile?

    Seems like a desperate attempt to generate interest. The handsome Adam should know better.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Freggles said:

    FPT

    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    nunu said:

    Freggles said:

    Public service announcement:
    I will be bringing back the trollface emoji tomorrow with the reinstatement of the campaigns.

    Brace yourselves.

    How do we use it? Like what buttons to press? Thanx!
    In seriousness, if you look under "Twitter emoji" on this page you will find all the available emoticons.

    :mrgreen::cookie::kiss:
    Where's the PB Tory emoticon?
    Is it one of these? :fearful::weary::dizzy::bawling:
    :naughty:
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    fpt
    Freggles said:

    nunu said:

    Freggles said:

    Public service announcement:
    I will be bringing back the trollface emoji tomorrow with the reinstatement of the campaigns.

    Brace yourselves.

    How do we use it? Like what buttons to press? Thanx!
    Hi nunu,

    Depends whose buttons you want to press.

    For AlistairMeeks, type vapid bilge (or "vapid bilge") repeatedly.

    For trolling TSE, question his authenticity as a Yorkshireman.

    For trolling Morris_Dancer, use the phrase "dey took err jerrbs" in relation to the LEAVE campaign.

    Hope that helps you get a trollface!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Freggles said:

    FPT

    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    nunu said:

    Freggles said:

    Public service announcement:
    I will be bringing back the trollface emoji tomorrow with the reinstatement of the campaigns.

    Brace yourselves.

    How do we use it? Like what buttons to press? Thanx!
    In seriousness, if you look under "Twitter emoji" on this page you will find all the available emoticons.

    :mrgreen::cookie::kiss:
    Where's the PB Tory emoticon?
    Is it one of these? :fearful::weary::dizzy::bawling:
    Is there one of a witch stealing milk?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    FPT
    tyson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    As a thriller writer, if I presented Mair to my editor as a plot device, she'd laugh in my face and tell me stop being so cliched, far fetched and unbelievable. She'd also say the plot twist was far too neat and convenient

    I'll be cliched....but the truth osterous.

    Are you venturing into Tuscany on your Italian odyssey?
    No, just Calabria. Which is scruffy, ugly, gangstery and poor, yet studded with occasional sublime gems. Like the hotel I'm in. I've stayed in a few nice hotels, in my time, as I may have mentioned, but the Praia Art Resort is up there with the best of them. World class.

    The food is indescribably good. We have our own private slice of Ionian Sea. Here I am right now, writing this comment

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/744219064751521794
    It's the light that is breathtaking in Italy. Roger told me that about the light he remembered over the Ponte Vecchio in Florence, reminiscing about the past.

    I have had the most spectacular lunch today overlooking Florence and the Apennines.. Italy is just too beautiful. Italians live for food. They dream about food. And their food is based on simplicity and local ingredients. It is not fussy. I shared an 8 Euro bottle of house white today...I feel I have to stas on your Primrose Hill Residence)...it was just fine. I wouldn't have noticed the difference with my usual choice.
    I had one of the very best dishes of my entire life last night, here in the hotel. The chef is a genius.

    It was ostensibly simple, taglialini with fat prawns and lots of Sila black truffle. But everything had been done with meticulous care and first class ingredients, right down to the type and age of French butter they used for the pasta (the chef explained it to me).

    Brilliant. Also bloody expensive (especially for Calabria). But I wasn't paying. Forza Italia!!
    Seafood pasta...divine. I'm a veggie, but I eat seafood. I had a scampi linguine in a unremarkable restaurant outside Piombino 4 years ago. I still dream about it, undoubtedly the most exquisite culinary experience of my life.

    How much was your plate of pasta?
    If you eat seafood, you are not a vegetarian!
    I count prawns, scampi and mussels and wotnot as floating mushrooms. I would eat insects too.
    But they are animals.

    Ergo, you are NOT a vegetarian, and that makes ME the only vegetarian in the PB village!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Er, terrified?
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    From previous thread, on keeping quiet - t depends on the area who keeps quiet. I've been in both Surrey and West Yorkshire over the last month. Whilst I feel comfortable speaking about wanting to remain in Surrey I've been scared enough by the atmosphere up here to keep it zipped. I'm barely a few miles away from the site of the murder and random people snarling about immigrants and benefits and getting control back was prevalent, maybe a bit calmer now though
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    I think both sides will agree the EU is crap. Hard to be enthused about it, but maybe 'better the devil you know' for some.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    edited June 2016
    ComRes will have enough data to know if post 2pm polling has any bias towards Remain or Leave compared to pre 2pm polling.

    Should also be pointed out that post 2pm polling would have clashed with the England game.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    RobD said:

    I think both sides will agree the EU is crap. Hard to be enthused about it, but maybe 'better the devil you know' for some.

    Better the devil EU know.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    I think both sides will agree the EU is crap. Hard to be enthused about it, but maybe 'better the devil you know' for some.

    Better the devil EU know.
    :o comedy genius!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    I think both sides will agree the EU is crap. Hard to be enthused about it, but maybe 'better the devil you know' for some.

    Better the devil EU know.
    :o comedy genius!
    Used it in the morning thread.

    I trust you enjoyed the AV thread.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,377
    FPT:
    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.
    Good idea.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    I think both sides will agree the EU is crap. Hard to be enthused about it, but maybe 'better the devil you know' for some.

    Better the devil EU know.
    :o comedy genius!
    Used it in the morning thread.

    I trust you enjoyed the AV thread.
    While not 100% focussed on AV, it did indeed sate my appetite. :D Afraid I couldn't comment on it as I was in the air all day yesterday.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Tomorrow dawn will break and within minutes the pent up fury of the leashed supporters of both sides will be released. Stalls and sites will be set up for propaganda and information services. First major battleground will be the Marr show which should be less boring than usual.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Interesting that the sentiment is with Leave and against politicians and financial institutions.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    If anyone does not think Online panels do not have excessive numbers of UKIP supporters just look at the data tables for the latest Comres poll . Before weighting 303 of the panel said they had voted UKIP in 2015 , severe weighting reduced that figure to half 152 .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Nice icon Freggles. ;)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,996
    MarkSenior said:

    If anyone does not think Online panels do not have excessive numbers of UKIP supporters just look at the data tables for the latest Comres poll . Before weighting 303 of the panel said they had voted UKIP in 2015 , severe weighting reduced that figure to half 152 .

    False memory? Maybe they wish they had voted Ukip last year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    edited June 2016
    3 key numbers stand out, post 2pm a majority would still be delighted if Leave won and upset if Remain win, although the margin has fallen but a comfortable majority would be relieved if Remain won, the reverse of before 2pm. Those most likely to be relieved? Undecideds
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    RoyalBlue said:

    Surely the post-2pm sample size is too small to say anything worthwhile?

    Seems like a desperate attempt to generate interest. The handsome Adam should know better.

    It's also possible that post 2pm to cut off (I presume the same evening?) was the peak shock/emotional reaction period for those 192 respondents.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Someone run a t test on the post 2 pm data.

    PLEASE>
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pulpstar said:

    Someone run a t test on the post 2 pm data.

    PLEASE>

    You're going to get much with a sample sub 200. Patience, a new poll will soon turn up.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    tlg86 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    If anyone does not think Online panels do not have excessive numbers of UKIP supporters just look at the data tables for the latest Comres poll . Before weighting 303 of the panel said they had voted UKIP in 2015 , severe weighting reduced that figure to half 152 .

    False memory? Maybe they wish they had voted Ukip last year.
    There us no sign that they want to vote UKIP now . Look at the meltdown in UKIP support in Cornwall supposedly one of UKIPs strong areas . 6 councillors elected in 2013 . 3 already lost . A 4th to be lost on July 14th as they are not even attempting to defend the seat . The remaining 2 councillors have already said they will not defend their seats next May .
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT

    tyson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    As a thriller writer, if I presented Mair to my editor as a plot device, she'd laugh in my face and tell me stop being so cliched, far fetched and unbelievable. She'd also say the plot twist was far too neat and convenient

    I'll be cliched....but the truth osterous.

    Are you venturing into Tuscany on your Italian odyssey?
    No, just Calabria. Which is scruffy, ugly, gangstery and poor, yet studded with occasional sublime gems. Like the hotel I'm in. I've stayed in a few nice hotels, in my time, as I may have mentioned, but the Praia Art Resort is up there with the best of them. World class.

    The food is indescribably good. We have our own private slice of Ionian Sea. Here I am right now, writing this comment

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/744219064751521794
    It's the light that is breathtaking in Italy. Roger told me that about the light he remembered over the Ponte Vecchio in Florence, reminiscing about the past.

    I have had the most spectacular lunch today overlooking Florence and the Apennines.. Italy is just too beautiful. Italians live for food. They dream about food. And their food is based on simplicity and local ingredients. It is not fussy. I shared an 8 Euro bottle of house white today...I feel I have to stas on your Primrose Hill Residence)...it was just fine. I wouldn't have noticed the difference with my usual choice.
    I had one of the very best dishes of my entire life last night, here in the hotel. The chef is a genius.

    It was ostensibly simple, taglialini with fat prawns and lots of Sila black truffle. But everything had been done with meticulous care and first class ingredients, right down to the type and age of French butter they used for the pasta (the chef explained it to me).

    Brilliant. Also bloody expensive (especially for Calabria). But I wasn't paying. Forza Italia!!
    Seafood pasta...divine. I'm a veggie, but I eat seafood. I had a scampi linguine in a unremarkable restaurant outside Piombino 4 years ago. I still dream about it, undoubtedly the most exquisite culinary experience of my life.

    How much was your plate of pasta?
    If you eat seafood, you are not a vegetarian!
    I count prawns, scampi and mussels and wotnot as floating mushrooms. I would eat insects too.
    But they are animals.

    Ergo, you are NOT a vegetarian, and that makes ME the only vegetarian in the PB village!
    Newbie I know, but I'm a vegetarian.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Someone run a t test on the post 2 pm data.

    PLEASE>

    You're going to get much with a sample sub 200. Patience, a new poll will soon turn up.
    I believe there's quite a big one running next Thursday
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,996
    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    If anyone does not think Online panels do not have excessive numbers of UKIP supporters just look at the data tables for the latest Comres poll . Before weighting 303 of the panel said they had voted UKIP in 2015 , severe weighting reduced that figure to half 152 .

    False memory? Maybe they wish they had voted Ukip last year.
    There us no sign that they want to vote UKIP now . Look at the meltdown in UKIP support in Cornwall supposedly one of UKIPs strong areas . 6 councillors elected in 2013 . 3 already lost . A 4th to be lost on July 14th as they are not even attempting to defend the seat . The remaining 2 councillors have already said they will not defend their seats next May .
    The voters are more sophisticated than you give them credit for. They have different requirements for local and national politicians.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited June 2016
    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    If anyone does not think Online panels do not have excessive numbers of UKIP supporters just look at the data tables for the latest Comres poll . Before weighting 303 of the panel said they had voted UKIP in 2015 , severe weighting reduced that figure to half 152 .

    False memory? Maybe they wish they had voted Ukip last year.
    There us no sign that they want to vote UKIP now . Look at the meltdown in UKIP support in Cornwall supposedly one of UKIPs strong areas . 6 councillors elected in 2013 . 3 already lost . A 4th to be lost on July 14th as they are not even attempting to defend the seat . The remaining 2 councillors have already said they will not defend their seats next May .
    UKIP are a party focused on national issues like foreign aid spending, the grammar school ban, EU membership, immigration and free trade. Many kippers like myself don't take the view many liberal democrats do that these are necessary stepping stones to re-establish a base. I'd go even further and say at council level there is basically no differences between us and the tories.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RoyalBlue said:

    Surely the post-2pm sample size is too small to say anything worthwhile?

    Seems like a desperate attempt to generate interest. The handsome Adam should know better.

    Adam ludlow............
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,377
    edited June 2016
    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    DanSmith said:


    Should also be pointed out that post 2pm polling would have clashed with the England game.

    A very good point. It renders the comparison between the post and pre 2pm sample worthless.

    PS. It also clashed with the Wales game.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    Essexit said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT

    tyson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    As a thriller writer, if I presented Mair to my editor as a plot device, she'd laugh in my face and tell me stop being so cliched, far fetched and unbelievable. She'd also say the plot twist was far too neat and convenient

    I'll be cliched....but the truth osterous.

    Are you venturing into Tuscany on your Italian odyssey?
    No, just Calabria. Which is scruffy, ugly, gangstery and poor, yet studded with occasional sublime gems. Like the hotel I'm in. I've stayed in a few nice hotels, in my time, as I may have mentioned, but the Praia Art Resort is up there with the best of them. World class.

    The food is indescribably good. We have our own private slice of Ionian Sea. Here I am right now, writing this comment

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/744219064751521794
    It's the light that is breathtaking in Italy. Roger told me that about the light he remembered over the Ponte Vecchio in Florence, reminiscing about the past.

    I have had the most spectacular lunch today overlooking Florence and the Apennines.. Italy is just too beautiful. Italians live for food. They dream about food. And their food is based on simplicity and local ingredients. It is not fussy. I shared an 8 Euro bottle of house white today...I feel I have to stas on your Primrose Hill Residence)...it was just fine. I wouldn't have noticed the difference with my usual choice.
    I had one of the very best dishes of my entire life last night, here in the hotel. The chef is a genius.

    It was ostensibly simple, taglialini with fat prawns and lots of Sila black truffle. But everything had been done with meticulous care and first class ingredients, right down to the type and age of French butter they used for the pasta (the chef explained it to me).

    Brilliant. Also bloody expensive (especially for Calabria). But I wasn't paying. Forza Italia!!
    Seafood pasta...divine. I'm a veggie, but I eat seafood. I had a scampi linguine in a unremarkable restauran]ife.

    How much was your plate of pasta?
    If you eat seafood, you are not a vegetarian!
    I count prawns, scampi and mussels and wotnot as floating mushrooms. I would eat insects too.
    But they are animals.

    Ergo, you are NOT a vegetarian, and that makes ME the only vegetarian in the PB village!
    Newbie I know, but I'm a vegetarian.
    Um, make that two, then! BUT NOT TYSON!

    And welcome aboard HMS PB!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    Independence Day on Channel 4
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.
    I think it is also worth pointing out that the EU needs access to the city of London far more than the City of London needs access to the EU.

    We have the money markets, the courts, lawyers and innovation that means we trade more USD and Renembi than anyone else. Is the USA and China in effect need London, the EU certainly does.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,270
    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    It seems impossible to call - the tragic events of the last few days will continue to the end of the campaign and the way the campaigners moderate their tone will be very important, starting with David Cameron on tomorrow night's question time. Jeremy Corbyn's only question time event is at 6.00pm on Monday (before the football) and is to a young audience and I expect him to condemn hate and the toxic nature of today's politics. The final debate at Wembley arena on the 21st will be the most important one for each side and any mishap by either could be pivotal. I think it really is a 'who knows' situation but whoever wins there are going to be serious issues to address on both sides otherwise we will have a terribly divided country.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    I think both sides will agree the EU is crap. Hard to be enthused about it, but maybe 'better the devil you know' for some.

    Better the devil EU know.
    EU keep me hanging on!
  • JessieShamusJessieShamus Posts: 70
    edited June 2016
    2 effects from the politician murder
    1) R
    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    Wishful thinking?

    I do reckon Remainers have great faith (hope) that the murder will affect the result.

    Mind you, if that causes them to neglect debate & reasoning (as opposed to insults, threats & doom mongering), then they should not complain when they end up like Kinnock in 92 or Paddy Ashdown in 2015.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    DanSmith said:


    Should also be pointed out that post 2pm polling would have clashed with the England game.

    A very good point. It renders the comparison between the post and pre 2pm sample worthless.

    PS. It also clashed with the Wales game.

    No it does not as the polling would have continued well after the final whistle and most people would have been at work when the match was on even if they were not watching it
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Hmm... thinking of Jo Cox - Save the Children suspends support services on Greek island detention centres following EU-Turkey deal.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    It isn't going to be worse than either Greece, Cyprus or Iceland is it?

    Besides which with a bit of luck someone has learnt the lesson.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Re Westminster VI, I am not at all surprised that Labour is sub 30% in the context of its stance on the referendum vote.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,377
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump: "Bernie is as crazy as a bedbug, but he's not giving up! He's waiting for the FBI Convention..."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    If the race is 44% 44% each as Opinium suggests just a 1% swing to Remain as a result of the shooting would win it for them
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    BenedictWhite said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    It isn't going to be worse than either Greece, Cyprus or Iceland is it?

    Besides which with a bit of luck someone has learnt the lesson.

    It would be much, much bigger than any of them. And in order to compete it will have to offer something larger markets cannot. It'll be offshore with light hand regulation and if it goes tits up the British government will be left with the bill.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,996
    I see Austria's second kit is remarkably similar to the first kit of Germany.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    BenedictWhite said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    It isn't going to be worse than either Greece, Cyprus or Iceland is it?

    Besides which with a bit of luck someone has learnt the lesson.
    No chance
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump: "Bernie is as crazy as a bedbug, but he's not giving up! He's waiting for the FBI Convention..."

    :smiley:
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    edited June 2016
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Um, make that two, then! BUT NOT TYSON!

    And welcome aboard HMS PB!

    Thanks!

    And we're both Leavers. #HerbivoresforBritain
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,270
    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Re Westminster VI, I am not at all surprised that Labour is sub 30% in the context of its stance on the referendum vote.

    Yet Labour have cut the Tories lead from 7% at the general election to 5% now as the Tories have lost even more voters to UKIP than Labour
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    DanSmith said:


    Should also be pointed out that post 2pm polling would have clashed with the England game.

    A very good point. It renders the comparison between the post and pre 2pm sample worthless.

    PS. It also clashed with the Wales game.

    No it does not as the polling would have continued well after the final whistle and most people would have been at work when the match was on even if they were not watching it
    My factories were closed during the match

    The teams shuffled their working week and had the afternoon off to watch the game
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    SouthamObserver said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    It isn't going to be worse than either Greece, Cyprus or Iceland is it?

    Besides which with a bit of luck someone has learnt the lesson.

    It would be much, much bigger than any of them. And in order to compete it will have to offer something larger markets cannot. It'll be offshore with light hand regulation and if it goes tits up the British government will be left with the bill.

    Sorry? Larger markets?

    Can you name say 3 larger money markets than London? Or perhaps 1?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?

    Of course. And it would be an absolute nightmare for us. A huge part of our economy exposed and us destroyed if something goes wrong. And it will. It always does.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,377
    BenedictWhite said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.
    I think it is also worth pointing out that the EU needs access to the city of London far more than the City of London needs access to the EU.

    We have the money markets, the courts, lawyers and innovation that means we trade more USD and Renembi than anyone else. Is the USA and China in effect need London, the EU certainly does.
    I wouldn't go that far, all I would say is that there are advantages to being outside of the passporting region, advantages that the City is uniquely qualified and placed to exploit.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    JessieShamus said:

    2 effects from the politician murder
    1) R

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    Wishful thinking?

    I do reckon Remainers have great faith (hope) that the murder will affect the result.

    Mind you, if that causes them to neglect debate & reasoning (as opposed to insults, threats & doom mongering), then they should not complain when they end up like Kinnock in 92 or Paddy Ashdown in 2015.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    Most of the voters had never even heard of her including me.

  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    JessieShamus said:

    2 effects from the politician murder
    1) R

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    Wishful thinking?

    I do reckon Remainers have great faith (hope) that the murder will affect the result.

    Mind you, if that causes them to neglect debate & reasoning (as opposed to insults, threats & doom mongering), then they should not complain when they end up like Kinnock in 92 or Paddy Ashdown in 2015.
    Other than on here.....it has been forgotten already.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    edited June 2016
    Essexit said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:



    And welcome aboard HMS PB!

    Thanks!

    And we're both Leavers. #HerbivoresforBritain
    Awesome stuff! And I grew up in Essex too (Colchester, Ilford).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?
    And Britain's nightmare? Did you also suggest that the BOE would underwrite Euro assets? Why?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    If the race is 44% 44% each as Opinium suggests just a 1% swing to LEAVE as a result of the shooting would win it for them
    *innocent face*
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    Sorry I think you can overdo the grief bit

    I felt mildly sad, but grief no. Why would I feel grief for someone I didn't know existed until the news broke ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    It seems impossible to call - the tragic events of the last few days will continue to the end of the campaign and the way the campaigners moderate their tone will be very important, starting with David Cameron on tomorrow night's question time. Jeremy Corbyn's only question time event is at 6.00pm on Monday (before the football) and is to a young audience and I expect him to condemn hate and the toxic nature of today's politics. The final debate at Wembley arena on the 21st will be the most important one for each side and any mishap by either could be pivotal. I think it really is a 'who knows' situation but whoever wins there are going to be serious issues to address on both sides otherwise we will have a terribly divided country.
    I agree. I might have answered "dismayed" or "upset" to that poll.

    Not because of the Leave campaign, but because I think it will have a nasty corroding effect on the validity result, and greatly sour the milk. Either way.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    JessieShamus said:

    2 effects from the politician murder
    1) R

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    Wishful thinking?

    I do reckon Remainers have great faith (hope) that the murder will affect the result.

    Mind you, if that causes them to neglect debate & reasoning (as opposed to insults, threats & doom mongering), then they should not complain when they end up like Kinnock in 92 or Paddy Ashdown in 2015.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    Most of the voters had never even heard of her including me.

    Yes, me too, even though we're both avid followers of PB!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,377
    FrankBooth said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?
    And Britain's nightmare? Did you also suggest that the BOE would underwrite Euro assets? Why?
    In order to ensure the market stays in London. Synthetic clearing at any rate.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,979
    Evening all :)

    Well, it's lucky there won't be a whole evening dedicated to micro-analysing poll entrails and obscure 1980s pop references.

    Hmm...

    I read Cyclefree's thread on the way home from visiting Mr Stodge Senior (me today, Brother Stodge and family tomorrow so the old boy will be well fed and watered this weekend).

    As with the Austro-Hungarian thread the other day, I thought the analysis slightly incorrect.

    The Europeans wanted us to be involved in the early 50s but instead of sending a Minister to the Messina Conference in 1955, we sent a civil servant with no power to do anything. That was a huge mistake for which we have suffered ever since. The Europeans saw it as an affront and a sign we were unwilling to fully engage with Europe.

    As far as the consequences of Suez were concerned, I think it's fair to say Macmillan followed a twin track approach and especially from 1960 onward. Heath was sent to prepare the way for Britain to join the then EEC only for De Gaulle to veto the application in 1963 and of course in 1967 as well. I don't know if that veto was related to Messina but I've always wondered.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    edited June 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    It seems impossible to call - the tragic events of the last few days will continue to the end of the campaign and the way the campaigners moderate their tone will be very important, starting with David Cameron on tomorrow night's question time. Jeremy Corbyn's only question time event is at 6.00pm on Monday (before the football) and is to a young audience and I expect him to condemn hate and the toxic nature of today's politics. The final debate at Wembley arena on the 21st will be the most important one for each side and any mishap by either could be pivotal. I think it really is a 'who knows' situation but whoever wins there are going to be serious issues to address on both sides otherwise we will have a terribly divided country.
    Indeed especially if it is a very narrow Remain win as I expect
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,133
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?
    Don't be naughty Max. Even if it was. And we left. We would still be regulated to within an inch of our lives by the EU. But would have no lobbying, no rapporteur, no influence.

    You are evidently a persuasive debater amongst your friends.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,377
    FrankBooth said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?
    And Britain's nightmare? Did you also suggest that the BOE would underwrite Euro assets? Why?
    Yes, but for a City audience it's an argument that holds much more water than immigration curbs.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT

    tyson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    As a thriller writer, if I presented Mair to my editor as a plot device, she'd laugh in my face and tell me stop being so cliched, far fetched and unbelievable. She'd also say the plot twist was far too neat and convenient

    I'll be cliched....but the truth osterous.

    Are you venturing into Tuscany on your Italian odyssey?
    No, just Calabria. Which is scruffy, ugly, gangstery and poor, yet studded with occasional sublime gems. Like the hotel I'm in. I've stayed in a few nice hotels, in my time, as I may have mentioned, but the Praia Art Resort is up there with the best of them. World class.

    The food is indescribably good. We have our own private slice of Ionian Sea. Here I am right now, writing this comment

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/744219064751521794
    It's the light that is breathtaking in Italy. Roger told me that about the light he remembered over the Ponte Vecchio in Florence, reminiscing about the past.

    I have had the most spectacular lunch today overlooking Florence and the Apennines.. Italy is just too beautiful. Italians live for food. They dream about food. And their food is based on simplicity and local ingredients. It is not fussy. I shared an 8 Euro bottle of house white today...I feel I have to stas on your Primrose Hill Residence)...it was just fine. I wouldn't have noticed the difference with my usual choice.
    I had one of the very best dishes of my entire life last night, here in the hotel. The chef is a genius.

    It was ostensibly simple, taglialini with fat prawns and lots of Sila black truffle. But everything had been done with meticulous care and first class ingredients, right down to the type and age of French butter they used for the pasta (the chef explained it to me).

    Brilliant. Also bloody expensive (especially for Calabria). But I wasn't paying. Forza Italia!!
    Seafood pasta...divine. I'm a veggie, but I eat seafood. I had a scampi linguine in a unremarkable restaurant outside Piombino 4 years ago. I still dream about it, undoubtedly the most exquisite culinary experience of my life.

    How much was your plate of pasta?
    If you eat seafood, you are not a vegetarian!
    I count prawns, scampi and mussels and wotnot as floating mushrooms. I would eat insects too.
    But they are animals.

    Ergo, you are NOT a vegetarian, and that makes ME the only vegetarian in the PB village!
    Good point.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    FrankBooth said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?
    And Britain's nightmare? Did you also suggest that the BOE would underwrite Euro assets? Why?

    I find it extraordinary that people are able to contemplate risking so much. The misery that something going wrong would cause is almost unimiginable. I cannot believe this is a remotely serious proposition.

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Re Westminster VI, I am not at all surprised that Labour is sub 30% in the context of its stance on the referendum vote.

    Yet Labour have cut the Tories lead from 7% at the general election to 5% now as the Tories have lost even more voters to UKIP than Labour
    A Remain vote could turn the UKIP into a serious parliamentary force in England and Wales. The SNP get the votes of all the people who wanted independence. UKIP could be very big beneficiaries of disgruntled Leave voters, especially in Labour's northern heartlands. Whatever the result, things will never be the same again.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,270
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    JessieShamus said:

    2 effects from the politician murder
    1) R

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    Wishful thinking?

    I do reckon Remainers have great faith (hope) that the murder will affect the result.

    Mind you, if that causes them to neglect debate & reasoning (as opposed to insults, threats & doom mongering), then they should not complain when they end up like Kinnock in 92 or Paddy Ashdown in 2015.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    Most of the voters had never even heard of her including me.

    Well they have now and it is not going away with the HOC tribute on Monday that will be widely covered on the broadcast media and I expect labour to refer to her desire to stay in the EU once campaigning restarts. I am not saying remain has won but to dismiss this tragic event may be a little complacent
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,903
    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Re Westminster VI, I am not at all surprised that Labour is sub 30% in the context of its stance on the referendum vote.

    Yet Labour have cut the Tories lead from 7% at the general election to 5% now as the Tories have lost even more voters to UKIP than Labour
    A Remain vote could turn the UKIP into a serious parliamentary force in England and Wales. The SNP get the votes of all the people who wanted independence. UKIP could be very big beneficiaries of disgruntled Leave voters, especially in Labour's northern heartlands. Whatever the result, things will never be the same again.
    I think it was Faisal Islam last week who said he heard from a senior source that this was Farage's masterplan.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    https://twitter.com/Italians4Brexit/status/744178517626261504
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    BenedictWhite said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed trieda EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    It isn't going to be worse than either Greece, Cyprus or Iceland is it?

    Besides which with a bit of luck someone has learnt the lesson.

    It would be much, much bigger than any of them. And in order to compete it will have to offer something larger markets cannot. It'll be offshore with light hand regulation and if it goes tits up the British government will be left with the bill.

    Sorry? Larger markets?

    Can you name say 3 larger money markets than London? Or perhaps 1?

    London is uniquely placed currently. Post-Brexit - as Max implicitly acknowledges - everything changes. Hence the extremely risky new strategy.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    DanSmith said:


    Should also be pointed out that post 2pm polling would have clashed with the England game.

    A very good point. It renders the comparison between the post and pre 2pm sample worthless.

    PS. It also clashed with the Wales game.

    No it does not as the polling would have continued well after the final whistle and most people would have been at work when the match was on even if they were not watching it
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    DanSmith said:


    Should also be pointed out that post 2pm polling would have clashed with the England game.

    A very good point. It renders the comparison between the post and pre 2pm sample worthless.

    PS. It also clashed with the Wales game.

    No it does not as the polling would have continued well after the final whistle and most people would have been at work when the match was on even if they were not watching it
    The fact that only 10% of the sample was contacted from 2pm onwards suggest to me that the polling did not last that long after the final whistle. The game was big enough, and appealing very much to a particular demographic, to be quite capable of biasing the sample. And as the pre/post 2pm split was clearly an afterthought by ComRes, there won't have been any special weighting within this sub-break to compensate for that bias.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,377
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    I think that's incorrect. As sad as this was, but Thursday it is Sunday's recycling. It is a personal tragedy for her friends and family, and an assault on our democracy by a nutter, but by tomorrow both campaigns are up and running again and by Tuesday the ding dong battle will be back and all of the fake calls for unity by Dave will be completely forgotten as project fear ramps up in the days before the vote.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,377
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?
    Don't be naughty Max. Even if it was. And we left. We would still be regulated to within an inch of our lives by the EU. But would have no lobbying, no rapporteur, no influence.

    You are evidently a persuasive debater amongst your friends.
    How does the ECB regulate an offshore market that uses synthetic clearing houses?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    JessieShamus said:

    2 effects from the politician murder
    1) R

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    Wishful thinking?

    I do reckon Remainers have great faith (hope) that the murder will affect the result.

    Mind you, if that causes them to neglect debate & reasoning (as opposed to insults, threats & doom mongering), then they should not complain when they end up like Kinnock in 92 or Paddy Ashdown in 2015.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    Most of the voters had never even heard of her including me.

    Well they have now and it is not going away with the HOC tribute on Monday that will be widely covered on the broadcast media and I expect labour to refer to her desire to stay in the EU once campaigning restarts. I am not saying remain has won but to dismiss this tragic event may be a little complacent
    Judging from my other half who's a bit of a Cameroony liberal type the death of the child attacked by the alligator was higher on the griefometer than Jo cox
  • isthisthewaywegoisthisthewaywego Posts: 29
    Alanbrooke said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    Sorry I think you can overdo the grief bit

    I felt mildly sad, but grief no. Why would I feel grief for someone I didn't know existed until the news broke ?
    It's what it represents. It sullies the leave cause. As a committed leaver, I feel more bothered now about being on the same side as some unsavoury people than I did before. I suspect others less committed than me will change sides as a result.

    Conversely, what the murder may well do is increase the number of shy leavers. I was going to do a Facebook post on the 23rd explaining (to my mainly young, liberal, remain friends) why I was voting leave. Now I don't think I'll bother. So a decline in the leave shares and increase in don't knows may well reflect this phenomenon.

    Bah. Who knows. I'll be glad when it's over though!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    edited June 2016
    JessieShamus said:

    2 effects from the politician murder
    1) R

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    Wishful thinking?

    I do reckon Remainers have great faith (hope) that the murder will affect the result.

    Mind you, if that causes them to neglect debate & reasoning (as opposed to insults, threats & doom mongering), then they should not complain when they end up like Kinnock in 92 or Paddy Ashdown in 2015.
    Not wishful thinking but factual thinking, look at the numbers. Pre 2pm more people would have been delighted if Leave won and Relieved and upset and disappointed if Remain won, though they would have been anxious about a Leave win. After 2pm more people would still have been delighted if Leave won but a plurality would be terrified, anxious and upset about a Leave win, by a clear margin voters would be relieved if Remain won
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,133
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    Isn't that the City dream?
    Don't be naughty Max. Even if it was. And we left. We would still be regulated to within an inch of our lives by the EU. But would have no lobbying, no rapporteur, no influence.

    You are evidently a persuasive debater amongst your friends.
    How does the ECB regulate an offshore market that uses synthetic clearing houses?
    First, what does a synthetic clearing house mean? Second, it regulates us when we trade european stocks.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    HYUFD said:



    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres suggesting what I suspected, the shooting will have little impact on committed Leavers but will convince enough undecideds to vote Remain for Remain to scrape home

    It seems impossible to call - the tragic events of the last few days will continue to the end of the campaign and the way the campaigners moderate their tone will be very important, starting with David Cameron on tomorrow night's question time. Jeremy Corbyn's only question time event is at 6.00pm on Monday (before the football) and is to a young audience and I expect him to condemn hate and the toxic nature of today's politics. The final debate at Wembley arena on the 21st will be the most important one for each side and any mishap by either could be pivotal. I think it really is a 'who knows' situation but whoever wins there are going to be serious issues to address on both sides otherwise we will have a terribly divided country.
    Indeed especially if it is a very narrow Remain win as I expect
    Zero , zilch, μηδεν, only poltical obsesives believe this will have an effect. In the real world this has already been forgotten. Soon, Monday, the real will be moaning that peeps/papers keep going on about it.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Re Westminster VI, I am not at all surprised that Labour is sub 30% in the context of its stance on the referendum vote.

    Yet Labour have cut the Tories lead from 7% at the general election to 5% now as the Tories have lost even more voters to UKIP than Labour
    A Remain vote could turn the UKIP into a serious parliamentary force in England and Wales. The SNP get the votes of all the people who wanted independence. UKIP could be very big beneficiaries of disgruntled Leave voters, especially in Labour's northern heartlands. Whatever the result, things will never be the same again.
    I think it was Faisal Islam last week who said he heard from a senior source that this was Farage's masterplan.
    I hear lots of political rubbish and the above is just another one of them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,270
    Alanbrooke said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    Sorry I think you can overdo the grief bit

    I felt mildly sad, but grief no. Why would I feel grief for someone I didn't know existed until the news broke ?
    Well if you could't feel for her sister and family today when they gave their tribute I am surprised and I think this will be a story for the rest of the campaign, but we will see
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    tyson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT

    tyson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:



    No, just Calabria. Which is scruffy, ugly, gangstery and poor, yet studded with occasional sublime gems. Like the hotel I'm in. I've stayed in a few nice hotels, in my time, as I may have mentioned, but the Praia Art Resort is up there with the best of them. World class.

    The food is indescribably good. We have our own private slice of Ionian Sea. Here I am right now, writing this comment

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/744219064751521794

    It's the light that is breathtaking in Italy. Roger told me that about the light he remembered over the Ponte Vecchio in Florence, reminiscing about the past.

    I have had the most spectacular lunch today overlooking Florence and the Apennines.. Italy is just too beautiful. Italians live for food. They dream about food. And their food is based on simplicity and local ingredients. It is not fussy. I shared an 8 Euro bottle of house white today...I feel I have to stas on your Primrose Hill Residence)...it was just fine. I wouldn't have noticed the difference with my usual choice.
    I had one of the very best dishes of my entire life last night, here in the hotel. The chef is a genius.

    It was ostensibly simple, taglialini with fat prawns and lots of Sila black truffle. But everything had been done with meticulous care and first class ingredients, right down to the type and age of French butter they used for the pasta (the chef explained it to me).

    Brilliant. Also bloody expensive (especially for Calabria). But I wasn't paying. Forza Italia!!
    Seafood pasta...divine. I'm a veggie, but I eat seafood. I had a scampi linguine in a unremarkable restaurant outside Piombino 4 years ago. I still dream about it, undoubtedly the most exquisite culinary experience of my life.

    How much was your plate of pasta?
    If you eat seafood, you are not a vegetarian!
    I count prawns, scampi and mussels and wotnot as floating mushrooms. I would eat insects too.
    But they are animals.

    Ergo, you are NOT a vegetarian, and that makes ME the only vegetarian in the PB village!
    Good point.

    Tyson, I too am a vegetarian just like you. I only eat meat from things I like to eat as well ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Re Westminster VI, I am not at all surprised that Labour is sub 30% in the context of its stance on the referendum vote.

    Yet Labour have cut the Tories lead from 7% at the general election to 5% now as the Tories have lost even more voters to UKIP than Labour
    A Remain vote could turn the UKIP into a serious parliamentary force in England and Wales. The SNP get the votes of all the people who wanted independence. UKIP could be very big beneficiaries of disgruntled Leave voters, especially in Labour's northern heartlands. Whatever the result, things will never be the same again.
    I think it was Faisal Islam last week who said he heard from a senior source that this was Farage's masterplan.
    I think if Farage can throw the vote by being suitably outrageous over the next 5 days, he will. Of course, his comments will be widely reported by the BBC/Guardian, in particular.

    He wants a victory on his terms, with him leading it, or none at all.

    His behaviour over the last 13-14 months tells you everything you need to know.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    SouthamObserver said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.

    Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.

    I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
    Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:

    1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.

    2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.

    3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.

    4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.

    A lightly regulated, offshore market trading in all manner of "innovative" products. What could possibly go wrong?

    It isn't going to be worse than either Greece, Cyprus or Iceland is it?

    Besides which with a bit of luck someone has learnt the lesson.

    It would be much, much bigger than any of them. And in order to compete it will have to offer something larger markets cannot. It'll be offshore with light hand regulation and if it goes tits up the British government will be left with the bill.

    If people do decide to kick the establishment and we vote leave it's essential that the Brexit establishment are put under pressure from Friday morning.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Re Westminster VI, I am not at all surprised that Labour is sub 30% in the context of its stance on the referendum vote.

    Yet Labour have cut the Tories lead from 7% at the general election to 5% now as the Tories have lost even more voters to UKIP than Labour
    It's midterm, duh.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the post 2pm figures are not that bad for Leave. They are peak grief, since then people have cooled down and I think they know that this is still a decision for life, not something that can be decided on the back of one nutter murdering an MP. By the time the vote comes around much of the feeling will have unwound and the effect already looks quite small.

    I think you may be underestimating the grief felt by the voters and grief doesn't just turn off you know. I do expect this to have an impact on the vote, possibly just tilting it to remain, but as I have just said 'who knows'
    I think that's incorrect. As sad as this was, but Thursday it is Sunday's recycling. It is a personal tragedy for her friends and family, and an assault on our democracy by a nutter, but by tomorrow both campaigns are up and running again and by Tuesday the ding dong battle will be back and all of the fake calls for unity by Dave will be completely forgotten as project fear ramps up in the days before the vote.
    Except of course the timetable has been upset as the programmed scares from Lagarde and co have been pushed off the news schedule
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