politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the
Comments
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They have a tendency to invade mosques.Freggles said:
Had this group urged political violence?Tykejohnno said:
They also have a history of endorsing UKIP.
But their worst crimes is their shocking knowledge of history.
For example, apparently voting LibLabCon is an insult to heirs and memory of St George.
Nobody has the heart to tell them where the heirs of St George are living at the moment.0 -
I reckon that Remain is going to win the referendum pretty safely on Thursday, assuming that the 6% lead was correct, I'm still expecting the 5% swing to Remain, plus a few more on top of that due to the murder (& the subsequent media coverage). I'd predict something along the lines of 55-45 for Remain.0
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High-functioning Schizophrenic reporting for duty. I now work in mental health.nunu said:
has anyone here has a serious mental illness and come through it? For me it feels like I'm stuck with it.RodCrosby said:Cox suspect sought mental health treatment the night before the killing...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/jo-cox-murder-thomas-mair-asked-for-mental-health-treatment-day/
I supplement my income by listening to Rod Crosby.0 -
Sorry to hear of other PBers who have suffered from mental illness. I spoke to an expert during my line of work recently, on this issue (not because I am a sufferer, but for research). He told me that the important thing to remember is that mental health is a sliding scale, just like physical health. It is not binary.0
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As I said in a comment yesterday (not sure if you saw it as obviously there have been stacks of comments on here) I have no idea where this idea of an EFTA/EEA emergency brake came from. I was under the impression and still believe that EEA membership meant that there were exactly the same terms of freedom of movement (with the exception of needing to pay benefits) as EU membership. It is one of the reasons I am happy with EEA membership.TOPPING said:
Is it the same "emergency brake" that you expect to sail through once we are members of EEA/EFTA?
And if this were the same emergency brake I certainly do not see it surviving the move to EEA as it was offered in return for staying in the EU and is still subject to approval by all the Parliaments and the Supreme courts of all 27 countries. I don't believe that could ever have been achieved inside the EU so it sure as hell won't be if we have moved to EFTA.
None of which changes the fact that it is subject to block by any one of the 27 EU members if we stay in.0 -
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I fear it would.RealBritain said:
That would not fit with what three witnesses so far recorded him as saying, however.Chameleon said:
FWIW I've heard that the mental health programme he was on was shut down last year & he blamed it on the MP.Casino_Royale said:
You think this smells?RodCrosby said:
Had mixed-race brother too. They got on fine...blackburn63 said:
Something very odd about that article, the bloke was collecting Nazi regalia whilst teaching migrants.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Well surprise surprise, I rest my case.RodCrosby said:Cox suspect sought mental health treatment the night before the killing...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/jo-cox-murder-thomas-mair-asked-for-mental-health-treatment-day/
Assuming the report is true
He may have felt that had the government put 'Britain First' the foreign aid budget would have been cut instead and this mental health programme kept going.
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I have no idea of the authenticity of the photo.Freggles said:
Had this group urged political violence?Tykejohnno said:
However, the other three people are clearly wearing a uniform of blackshirts.
The alleged figure of Thomas Mair is not. That seems odd to me. Why is he not in the blackshirt uniform?
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This does not appear as reasonable speculation at this point.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I fear it would.RealBritain said:
That would not fit with what three witnesses so far recorded him as saying, however.Chameleon said:
FWIW I've heard that the mental health programme he was on was shut down last year & he blamed it on the MP.Casino_Royale said:
You think this smells?RodCrosby said:
Had mixed-race brother too. They got on fine...blackburn63 said:
Something very odd about that article, the bloke was collecting Nazi regalia whilst teaching migrants.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Well surprise surprise, I rest my case.RodCrosby said:Cox suspect sought mental health treatment the night before the killing...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/jo-cox-murder-thomas-mair-asked-for-mental-health-treatment-day/
Assuming the report is true
He may have felt that had the government put 'Britain First' the foreign aid budget would have been cut instead and this mental health programme kept going.0 -
I am glad he did what he did. We have a new relationship with the EU and a special status within it.welshowl said:
Personally I'd say sod 'em all and go WTO if they won't play ball. Cameron was an idiot in his negotiating technique. Never believed he had any muscle behind his "threat" ( ho ho ) to leave. How wrong he was. If he'd backed leave it would've been a walkover. I suspect he never remotely believed that.TOPPING said:
Is it the same "emergency brake" that you expect to sail through once we are members of EEA/EFTA?Richard_Tyndall said:
As I said before I strongly suspect you,ade clear they oppose them. Others including the emergency brake on migration also need the approval of the individual Parliaments of the 28 nations. And even after that could be subject to challenge by the constitutional courts of those countries.TOPPING said:
On the sauce again tonight Richard?
But you're right. He cunningly assembled the other 27 heads of state, agreed a deal, and then as soon as the poor suckers vote Remain, will hold up his "Bluff" sign and we'll all be using the euro by Christmas.
The measures to prevent the Eurozone from acting as a bloc only require the Council of Ministers to listen to objections by non-Eurozone countries. They do not require them to actually change anything. They can still proceed with measures detrimental to the non Eurozone countries as long as they can be shown to be necessary for the Eurozone and not simply proposed to place non Eurozone countries at a disadvantage. They can place non Eurozone countries at a disadvantage but that cannot be the only reason for the measure.
And your regular dismissal of the ECJ displays a terrible lack of understanding of its function and purpose. The ECj is not there to uphold decisions made by the national governments or the Council of Ministers or any other body. They are there to interpret the law in accordance with the EU treaties on behalf of the citizens of the EU. All it will take is one individual making a formal complaint to the ECJ and they will consider it their duty (indeed they are obligated by treaty) to make a ruling on the matter.
In case you forgot this already happened with the Working Time Directive opt out which was agreed by all members as part of the Maastricht Treaty and was then overturned a year or two later by the ECJ. They have a history of doing this.
I couldn't be happier, albeit I wish the EU would sometimes keep its trap shut. But even still, I'm not about to vote to cut off my nose to spite my face.0 -
Nope. It is fact based on the agreement you seem to think is so wonderful. Like I said it has become very clear you have not even read all the documents so it is no surprise you find yourself at a disadvantage.TOPPING said:
Oh and as for all the other bolleaux you spout. When Mikey Gove came onto the radiowaves to explain how the ECJ might strike down the deal, apart from being a cheeky monkey, he was being shall we say creative. A thousand legal experts, one of which you are not, came on straight afterwards and said that the man is a cretin (they were of course far too polite to phrase it thus).
As for the eurozone. I am struggling to see how we have better protection from the eurozone countries ganging up on us outside the EU than inside it. As we ALL KNOW, the precedent has been set in the ECJ with their opinion on the ECB's Location Policy. We won inside. Would we win outside? Not so sure.
So in total, although you have written a lot of words, 99.9% of it is sheer wishful thinking bollocks.
I see now why you have avoided answering this question so many times in the past.0 -
They are also holding the banner and posing for the camera. He is very definitely not.YBarddCwsc said:
I have no idea of the authenticity of the photo.Freggles said:
Had this group urged political violence?Tykejohnno said:
However, the other three people are clearly wearing a uniform of blackshirts.
The alleged figure of Thomas Mair is not. That seems odd to me. Why he is not in the blackshirt uniform?
EDIT: Here is the full photo: https://twitter.com/Far_Right_Watch/status/743870797844971520
That seems to slightly explain the above discrepancies.0 -
ITV News say police are saying it's a targeted attack0
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I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:0 -
Sadly yes, I can't see it making much difference to those committed either way, if it does have any impact it will be with undecidedsBenedictWhite said:
Well, we know one thing. Someone thought they would check the effect of a murder on the referendum...HYUFD said:
Mainly seems to be a 7% increase in Don't Knows which tells us virtually nothingBenedictWhite said:Make of this voodo poll, what you will:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/06/17/exclusive-poll-eu-support-falls-after-jo-cox-murder/86031038/
It turns out someone had to check the effect of a murder.0 -
Why don't we wait for the coppers to give us some actual information? Let's not turn into a conspiracy theory site, for the love of God!0
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@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?0 -
Britain First are a little too smart (I can't believe I actually said that) to make direct threats like that. They have instead relied on innuendo and veiled statements which make it absolutely clear what they mean without putting themselves directly on the wrong side of the law.nunu said:
they believe in taking "the law in to our hands if the police don't act.."Freggles said:
Had this group urged political violence?Tykejohnno said:
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Link for me the other documents. I will read them.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. It is fact based on the agreement you seem to think is so wonderful. Like I said it has become very clear you have not even read all the documents so it is no surprise you find yourself at a disadvantage.TOPPING said:
Oh and as for all the other bolleaux you spout. When Mikey Gove came onto the radiowaves to explain how the ECJ might strike down the deal, apart from being a cheeky monkey, he was being shall we say creative. A thousand legal experts, one of which you are not, came on straight afterwards and said that the man is a cretin (they were of course far too polite to phrase it thus).
As for the eurozone. I am struggling to see how we have better protection from the eurozone countries ganging up on us outside the EU than inside it. As we ALL KNOW, the precedent has been set in the ECJ with their opinion on the ECB's Location Policy. We won inside. Would we win outside? Not so sure.
So in total, although you have written a lot of words, 99.9% of it is sheer wishful thinking bollocks.
I see now why you have avoided answering this question so many times in the past.
I will give you this link, which I have read extensively around, and one quote from it.
We will reconvene tomorrow perhaps, otherwise Sunday, as I need my beauty sleep (more than most) and I am actually going racing tomorrow (I know, it is the naff day).
consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/uk/2016-uk-settlement-process-timeline/
"Following intense negotiations, EU leaders achieved a deal which strengthens Britain's special status in the EU. It is a legally binding and irreversible decision by all 28 leaders."
I am curious why you, and others on here, and Michael Gove, think that this is such an obviously transparent subterfuge.0 -
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.0 -
Sure, TSE, the Euref is similar to the AVref in those regards, but in more important respects it's not. The AVref was the LibDems' referendum, a waste of public money because few other than LibDem voters and a few dons at Oxford and Cambridge supported electoral reform. It was the price the LibDems received for being Tory lickspittles joining up with the Tories and pretending that the humiliating 55% no-confidence rule meant something other than a promise never to split the coalition. Nobody other than LibDems and a few "heads" gave much of a toss about the AVref except when the campaign was going on.
The EUref is far bigger, far more significant in the country's political and political-psychological history.0 -
Presumably you mean that one of the others is also identified with another political group, or role ?glw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:0 -
We knew that already. We all knew he was deliberately out to get one specific person, which makes it 'targetted'. And that's all it means. But doubtless ITV News are using the word in a way that it intimates blueprints, grand stategy and some massive "right-wing" plot that leads back to Nigel Farage.Jobabob said:ITV News say police are saying it's a targeted attack
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The London Boys had a very tragic ending.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.0 -
He could have got an agreement that Christmas day was December the 25th... It isn't the agreement that counts but what the agreement actually is.TOPPING said:
Agreement from 28 EU heads of state = didn't get anything.BenedictWhite said:
Actually he didn't.TOPPING said:
The thing that really irritates me is that, knowing that the EU was never going to reform, why didn't he instead negotiate a change in the UK's relationship with (that unchanging) EU?GIN1138 said:
If the EU was going to "reform" they'd have done in when they had a fantastic opportunity to "reform" AKA Cameron's non-negotiation renegotiation.welshowl said:The Times: what idiotic hand wringing. A dismal return to business as usual is exactly what we'll get with Remain and the Referendum will have resolved nothing.
The British government/political class (from Cameron down) have absolutely no desire to see the EU "reform". In fact they're all signed up to more "integration" whenever they think they can get away with it.
So of course it will back to "business as usual". Actually it will be worse than business as usual because we'll be forever locked in to the ever expanding superstate (the political class will not dare have another referendum after these past weeks you can be sure of that)
Now, business as usual short term, and long term submergence into the Superstate is a perfectly legitimate position for the UK to be in but people should at least be honest about, not delude themselves they are voting for REMAIN but they'll be an on-going process of "reform" and other opportunities to LEAVE. It's a non-starter.
Why didn't he try and get something like, oh I don't know, a Special Status, carving us out of the whole EU ever closer union superstate bandwagon so that it could carry on with its superstate thing but we could say: "Non!", and just enjoy the stuff that we like, the single market, that sort of thing.
BUT WAIT!
That's just what he did do.
He got a bit of a preamble not important to the treaty removed from the treaty. Also he didn't get anything on anything else.
K
Also as noted by Rod Crosby, the agreement has many other hurdles to jump, even though there is very little in it.0 -
I get your driftglw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:
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Maybe, it's not a great picture so I'm not certain, but if I was a journalist I would want to put names to faces.RealBritain said:Presumably you mean that one of the others is also identified with another political group, or role ?
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I don't...tyson said:
I get your driftglw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:0 -
If that's Photoshop you're looking at a very long game
http://faith-matters.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Dewsbury-648x300.jpg0 -
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:0 -
@Chameleon
I hope you are right but there is simply no poll to support your view. @Tyson will of course mention the markets0 -
They did, The Twelve Commandments of Dance was the first CD I ever bought.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
The London Boys had a very tragic ending.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPs_IksWVaQ0 -
Depeche Mode are my favourite band - should be releasing another album early next year.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.0 -
I'm guessing that it's about the man to the left of the man identified as Mair?glw said:
Maybe, it's not a great picture so I'm not certain, but if I was a journalist I would want to put names to faces.RealBritain said:Presumably you mean that one of the others is also identified with another political group, or role ?
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Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:0 -
Has anyone ever gone on Twitter and said anything along the lines of 'Hey, I'm feeling pretty OK today'.
It always seems that people exist in heightened states 'appalled', 'outraged', 'horrified'.0 -
I think the 80's was overall really quite naff on all fronts, barring Manchester, where I was growing up. Cinema wise, apart from Raging Bull- which was filmed in 1979, but released in 1980, it was utter tosh. I think we had to wait until Pulp Fiction (1994) until cinema found its feet again.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.
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I have been scouring the picture since GLW wrote his and I'm embarrassed to admit I haven't spotted anything.tyson said:
I get your driftglw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:0 -
Tears for Fears.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Depeche Mode are my favourite band - should be releasing another album early next year.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.0 -
I think we should follow John_M’s advice and wait for the police to report.
It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data.0 -
Most celebs accounts do and a lot of ordinary people too, just the political ones tend to be outragedJohn_M said:Has anyone ever gone on Twitter and said anything along the lines of 'Hey, I'm feeling pretty OK today'.
It always seems that people exist in heightened states 'appalled', 'outraged', 'horrified'.0 -
Yes. The public will still be patient for a little while longer, but they will expect much fuller accounts, and soon.YBarddCwsc said:I think we should follow John_M’s advice and wait for the police to report.
It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data.0 -
I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.0
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As George Eaton saysTykejohnno said:twitter.com/suttonnick/status/743896903700582400
Police said far-right links were "priority line of inquiry". The Mail decides otherwise.0 -
The only thing I've spotted is that the so called "Northern Brigade" has a London phone number (written incorrectly, natch).Jobabob said:
I have been scouring the picture since GLW wrote his and I'm embarrassed to admit I haven't spotted anything.tyson said:
I get your driftglw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:0 -
I don't even understand what she is on about - was she responding to a different quote which might justify such a reaction?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:
You know what, I don't care.
The EU referendum was already a poisonous debate, I'm not going to start thinking about most likely cretinous conspiracy theories and absurd over politicising.
How I long for the days when politics was mere dull pablum.0 -
Thanks for this - so sad what happened to them.TheScreamingEagles said:
They did, The Twelve Commandments of Dance was the first CD I ever bought.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
The London Boys had a very tragic ending.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPs_IksWVaQ0 -
I'm not going to speculate. My comrade from many years past, Benedict White, hits the right note by saying it might be him, and it might not be him. Difficult to say.GIN1138 said:
I don't...tyson said:
I get your driftglw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:0 -
Why? Who is going to change their vote over this? The vast majority of the public will see him as a madman; the only people who equate Leave and the far right are fervent Remainers.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction
Leave may have lost 'momentum', but they are clearly in the lead and I still think there is a shy Leave vote. I don't think Remain will 'win' momentum by this halt to campaigning.
Will it really be that close?
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I'm in an 80s bar right now.tyson said:
I think the 80's was overall really quite naff on all fronts, barring Manchester, where I was growing up. Cinema wise, apart from Raging Bull- which was filmed in 1979, but released in 1980, it was utter tosh. I think we had to wait until Pulp Fiction (1994) until cinema found its feet again.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.0 -
Have you seen this story about the man who is the source of the claim he shouted 'Britain First'?glw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/17/britain-first-eyewitness-bnp-member-list/0 -
What about Opinium?TheScreamingEagles said:I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.
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The undecideds are key now, Leave will not lose any support over it but if it tilts the majority of undecideds over the next few days that will be enough for Remain to scrape home on ThursdayRoyalBlue said:
Why? Who is going to change their vote over this? The vast majority of the public will see him as a madman; the only people who equate Leave and the far right are fervent Remainers.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction
Leave may have lost 'momentum', but they are clearly in the lead and I still think there is a shy Leave vote. I don't think Remain will 'win' momentum by this halt to campaigning.
Will it really be that close?0 -
Cripes - I don;t think Alfred Hitchcock or Agatha Christie could have come up with these turns of events.
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Opinium too, but nearly all of the fieldwork took place before 1pm Thursday.GIN1138 said:
What about Opinium?TheScreamingEagles said:I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.
However I just completed an Opinium this evening.0 -
Not explicitly, no. That's unlawful and they would get arrested.Freggles said:
Had this group urged political violence?Tykejohnno said:
In practice, yes of course they have. Just look up "Britain First" and "patrols". Or go here and read up about their "activist training camp". Why are they wearing camouflage jackets and in some cases showing insignia on caps or sweatshirts? Also notice the word "Brigade" on that banner they're holding.
Of course they are selling themselves as some kind of "muscled" group.
They are also about the most obvious example of an agent provocateur group that I have ever come across.
They have done things like planning to bury a pig in the grounds of a mosque.
Their two main spokespeople come across as being as thick as two short planks. Just take a look at the video they made in Golders Green to confirm! But whoever "manages" this group certainly isn't.
Anyone who thinks the murder wasn't deliberately timed to have an effect on the referendum, well...let's say if someone really wants to insist on being so naive I'd find it difficult to discuss this with them.
The fact that information was released through the Southern Poverty Law Centre is very interesting. Do they have a file of all of the National Alliance's correspondence? How did they get that? I doubt the SPLC released the info without MI5 asking them to, but it's possible.
One of Britain First's principal markets appears to be the most boneheaded elements who currently serve in the British army or who have now left it. (That makes them a bit different from the EDL, who came out of football.) I am sorry to say that there are quite a few soldiers and former soldiers who believe that the war in Afghanistan and Iraq is soon going to extend to British cities such as Bradford.
I reiterate what I said about agents provocateurs.
The group may now be blown and get wound down. I mean the brand. The use of similar tools in the campaign won't stop.0 -
I tend to agree... Now, if a picture ever emerges of him anywhere near Farage things could turn a bit...RoyalBlue said:
Why? Who is going to change their vote over this? The vast majority of the public will see him as a madman; the only people who equate Leave and the far right are fervent Remainers.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction0 -
What is interesting? (Apart from the fact that doesn't look like Mair to me)glw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:0 -
read the Twitter spat between Dan Hodges and Julia Hartley-BrewerRoyalBlue said:Why? Who is going to change their vote over this? The vast majority of the public will see him as a madman; the only people who equate Leave and the far right are fervent Remainers.
They were discussing far-right, when Iain Martin (Brexiter) jumped in
@iainmartin1: @DPJHodges Read splash in Guardian. Fairly clear. But any attempt to create a link between neo-Nazis + Leave campaign beneath you @JuliaHB1
@DPJHodges: @iainmartin1 @JuliaHB1 You see, here's the problem Iain. I haven't mentioned Leave. But for some reason, you have. Why is that.0 -
Oooooooo Sounds like we're in for a Saturday night special. I'll get the Pringles if you get the beers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Opinium too, but nearly all of the fieldwork took place before 1pm Thursday.GIN1138 said:
What about Opinium?TheScreamingEagles said:I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.
However I just completed an Opinium this evening.
0 -
The best Star Wars film, The Empire Strikes Back was released in 1980.tyson said:
I think the 80's was overall really quite naff on all fronts, barring Manchester, where I was growing up. Cinema wise, apart from Raging Bull- which was filmed in 1979, but released in 1980, it was utter tosh. I think we had to wait until Pulp Fiction (1994) until cinema found its feet again.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.0 -
I don't even see the connection. How the hell does she get from a failure to provide help to a man suffering with mental illness by a local clinic to David Cameron should resign?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:0 -
I think she is saying that Cameron and others' intimations that the murder was politically motivated, and motivated by hate of foreigners etc - and thus, subliminally, Mensch thinks, linked, however tenously, to the Leave campaign - is wrong, and thus any subliminal laying of blame at Leave's door is wrong, because it turns out, according to the Mail, that it was in fact the actions of a man suffering from mental illness and not in possession of a sound mind.kle4 said:
I don't even understand what she is on about - was she responding to a different quote which might justify such a reaction?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:
You know what, I don't care.
The EU referendum was already a poisonous debate, I'm not going to start thinking about most likely cretinous conspiracy theories and absurd over politicising.
How I long for the days when politics was mere dull pablum.
Or something.0 -
I don't think it will, but I maintain if this tragedy is to have an effect, and I don't think it will, it isn't about people consciously changing their vote as a direct result of it. Put it like that and of course it sounds silly. But as something occuring at the same time, it at least has the potential to impact, unconsciously, how people might think about other things, and that could go either way.RoyalBlue said:
Why? Who is going to change their vote over this? The vast majority of the public will see him as a madman; the only people who equate Leave and the far right are fervent Remainers.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction
Leave may have lost 'momentum', but they are clearly in the lead and I still think there is a shy Leave vote. I don't think Remain will 'win' momentum by this halt to campaigning.
Will it really be that close?
0 -
I'm hopeful it'll be megapolling Saturday night.GIN1138 said:
Oooooooo Sounds like we're in for a Saturday night special. I'll get the Pringles if you get the beers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Opinium too, but nearly all of the fieldwork took place before 1pm Thursday.GIN1138 said:
What about Opinium?TheScreamingEagles said:I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.
However I just completed an Opinium this evening.
I'm hoping we'll also see polls in The Mail on Sunday, The Sun on Sunday, and maybe The Sunday Telegraph, but I've had nothing confirmed.0 -
And people who think the EU debate will be put to bed if remain win are living cloud cuckoo land,a fair fight my ar$e.HYUFD said:
The undecideds are key now, Leave will not lose any support over it but if it tilts the majority of undecideds over the next few days that will be enough for Remain to scrape home on ThursdayRoyalBlue said:
Why? Who is going to change their vote over this? The vast majority of the public will see him as a madman; the only people who equate Leave and the far right are fervent Remainers.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction
Leave may have lost 'momentum', but they are clearly in the lead and I still think there is a shy Leave vote. I don't think Remain will 'win' momentum by this halt to campaigning.
Will it really be that close?0 -
O/T Charlie Sheen on Graham Norton now0
-
You sound young, my friend!Paul_Bedfordshire said:Cripes - I don;t think Alfred Hitchcock or Agatha Christie could have come up with these turns of events.
0 -
I assume she's [trying] to be ironic after the way Polly etc. Have tried to latch on to this murder to beat LEAVE on the head with it?Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't even see the connection. How the hell does she get from a failure to provide help to a man suffering with mental illness by a local clinic to David Cameron should resign?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:0 -
To quote someone cruel, with nearly 150k tweets, Louise Mensch is the living embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about twitter.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't even see the connection. How the hell does she get from a failure to provide help to a man suffering with mental illness by a local clinic to David Cameron should resign?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:0 -
Maybe it's the t-shirt. Looks like an odd choice of t-shirt for a blackshirt warrior....BenedictWhite said:
What is interesting? (Apart from the fact that doesn't look like Mair to me)glw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:0 -
You cannot imagine how this is being played behind the scenes.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction
I don't mean to be callous but what a great thriller
a defenceless, beautiful woman brutally, horrifically murdered leaving a husband, and young children.... she a crusader of social justice.......the backdrop, days before a political vote that could change the course of history....the culprit linked to the extreme right and Nazism....a PM fighting for his political survival, his foes, desperate to avoid being dragged down into the mire with victory so close.......
0 -
I predict it will be entirely within line with recent polling, MOE change only.TheScreamingEagles said:I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.
0 -
Sounds exciting (for geeks)TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hopeful it'll be megapolling Saturday night.GIN1138 said:
Oooooooo Sounds like we're in for a Saturday night special. I'll get the Pringles if you get the beers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Opinium too, but nearly all of the fieldwork took place before 1pm Thursday.GIN1138 said:
What about Opinium?TheScreamingEagles said:I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.
However I just completed an Opinium this evening.
I'm hoping we'll also see polls in The Mail on Sunday, The Sun on Sunday, and maybe The Sunday Telegraph, but I've had nothing confirmed.0 -
Robert Harris has already optioned it.tyson said:
You cannot imagine how this is being played behind the scenes.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction
I don't mean to be callous but what a great thriller
a defenceless, beautiful woman brutally, horrifically murdered leaving a husband, and young children.... she a crusader of social justice.......the backdrop, days before a political vote that could change the course of history....the culprit linked to the extreme right and Nazism....a PM fighting for his political survival, his foes, desperate to avoid being dragged down into the mire with victory so close.......0 -
This is going to be the most high profile murder inquiry of the year. It is all over the papers along with the chief suspects name. I am not surprised at all that the police want to release nothing whatsoever that might in any way be construed as prejudicing the trial. I already think the newspapers may have done enough to cause questions to be asked about getting a fair trial so speculation is not going to help anyone and nor is a rushed or botched police statement.RealBritain said:
Yes. The public will still be patient for a little while longer, but they will expect much fuller accounts, and soon.YBarddCwsc said:I think we should follow John_M’s advice and wait for the police to report.
It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data.0 -
We don't know what if any impact the Cox Killing will have because there is still plenty of time for counter violence before polling day.0
-
"Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here?"GIN1138 said:
Sounds exciting (for geeks)TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hopeful it'll be megapolling Saturday night.GIN1138 said:
Oooooooo Sounds like we're in for a Saturday night special. I'll get the Pringles if you get the beers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Opinium too, but nearly all of the fieldwork took place before 1pm Thursday.GIN1138 said:
What about Opinium?TheScreamingEagles said:I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.
However I just completed an Opinium this evening.
I'm hoping we'll also see polls in The Mail on Sunday, The Sun on Sunday, and maybe The Sunday Telegraph, but I've had nothing confirmed. 0 -
But filmed in 1979....Next.....Sunil_Prasannan said:
The best Star Wars film, The Empire Strikes Back was released in 1980.tyson said:
I think the 80's was overall really quite naff on all fronts, barring Manchester, where I was growing up. Cinema wise, apart from Raging Bull- which was filmed in 1979, but released in 1980, it was utter tosh. I think we had to wait until Pulp Fiction (1994) until cinema found its feet again.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.
0 -
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/743921628787150848Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't even see the connection. How the hell does she get from a failure to provide help to a man suffering with mental illness by a local clinic to David Cameron should resign?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:0 -
How many AV threads has she written?TheScreamingEagles said:
To quote someone cruel, with nearly 150k tweets, Louise Mensch is the living embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about twitter.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't even see the connection. How the hell does she get from a failure to provide help to a man suffering with mental illness by a local clinic to David Cameron should resign?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:
0 -
I do not think these remarks are worthy of a detailed response.John_N4 said:
Not explicitly, no. That's unlawful and they would get arrested.Freggles said:
Had this group urged political violence?Tykejohnno said:
In practice, yes of course they have. Just look up "Britain First" and "patrols". Or go here and read up about their "activist training camp". Why are they wearing camouflage jackets and in some cases showing insignia on caps or sweatshirts? Also notice the word "Brigade" on that banner they're holding.
Of course they are selling themselves as some kind of "muscled" group.
They are also about the most obvious example of an agent provocateur group that I have ever come across.
They have done things like planning to bury a pig in the grounds of a mosque.
Their two main spokespeople come across as being as thick as two short planks. Just take a look at the video they made in Golders Green to confirm! But whoever "manages" this group certainly isn't.
Anyone who thinks the murder wasn't deliberately timed to have an effect on the referendum, well...let's say if someone really wants to insist on being so naive I'd find it difficult to discuss this with them.
The fact that information was released through the Southern Poverty Law Centre is very interesting. Do they have a file of all of the National Alliance's correspondence? How did they get that? I doubt the SPLC released the info without MI5 asking them to, but it's possible.
One of Britain First's principal markets appears to be the most boneheaded elements who currently serve in the British army or who have now left it. (That makes them a bit different from the EDL, who came out of football.) I am sorry to say that there are quite a few soldiers and former soldiers who believe that the war in Afghanistan and Iraq is soon going to extend to British cities such as Bradford.
I reiterate what I said about agents provocateurs.
The group may now be blown and get wound down. I mean the brand. The use of similar tools in the campaign won't stop.0 -
UKIP would certainly prosper in such a scenario yesTykejohnno said:
And people who think the EU debate will be put to bed if remain win are living cloud cuckoo land,a fair fight my ar$e.HYUFD said:
The undecideds are key now, Leave will not lose any support over it but if it tilts the majority of undecideds over the next few days that will be enough for Remain to scrape home on ThursdayRoyalBlue said:
Why? Who is going to change their vote over this? The vast majority of the public will see him as a madman; the only people who equate Leave and the far right are fervent Remainers.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction
Leave may have lost 'momentum', but they are clearly in the lead and I still think there is a shy Leave vote. I don't think Remain will 'win' momentum by this halt to campaigning.
Will it really be that close?0 -
Well, Legal and General are not bothered about #Brexit.
Not small fry either
https://twitter.com/bernerlap/status/7439036080648355840 -
I'm gonna go with 50-50 deadlock.kle4 said:
I predict it will be entirely within line with recent polling, MOE change only.TheScreamingEagles said:I believe we're going to get a YouGov tomorrow night (in T'Sunday Times) conducted entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.
0 -
I am expecting more than one of the more excitable Labour MPs to make an explicit link between the murder and Leave on Monday.
Will that resonate with the public, or will it have the reverse reaction?0 -
As in Mair. It may or may not be him...tyson said:
I'm not going to speculate. My comrade from many years past, Benedict White, hits the right note by saying it might be him, and it might not be him. Difficult to say.GIN1138 said:
I don't...tyson said:
I get your driftglw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:
I have no idea who anyone else is supposed to be. I can confirm I am not in that photo nor anyone else I know.0 -
Raiders of the Lost Arc in 1981 tooSunil_Prasannan said:
The best Star Wars film, The Empire Strikes Back was released in 1980.tyson said:
I think the 80's was overall really quite naff on all fronts, barring Manchester, where I was growing up. Cinema wise, apart from Raging Bull- which was filmed in 1979, but released in 1980, it was utter tosh. I think we had to wait until Pulp Fiction (1994) until cinema found its feet again.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love all 80s music, the good music and the shit music.tyson said:@TSE
I love the way you try and search for an angle on your leads TSE. This could be like the AV referendum, and you draw some interesting comparisons. But, there is one slight flaw in your analysis. No one put any money on AV, but yet there are the majority of punters still backing remain.
BTW TSE- I ended on your twitter page or instagram page quite by chance. I am not a stalker..honest. But once reaching your page, quite by chance, I explored it a little and was intrigued by your love of 80's music. Do you like the great 80's music...the Smiths, Cure, Joy Division, New Order....or the shit 80's ,music....basically everything else?
I love everything from New Order to The London Boys.0 -
It won't cost Leave any votes. Remain's only chance is if it converts enough DKs and pushes even more of its supporters to the ballot box in its London heartlands, and from its AB vote elsewhere. But Remain are trying to squeeze every drip from a limited demographic, sadly.GIN1138 said:
I tend to agree... Now, if a picture ever emerges of him anywhere near Farage things could turn a bit...RoyalBlue said:
Why? Who is going to change their vote over this? The vast majority of the public will see him as a madman; the only people who equate Leave and the far right are fervent Remainers.SeanT said:
I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAINBenedictWhite said:
Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)Tykejohnno said:
Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction0 -
Mensch is best ignored by sensible supporters of both sides.KentRising said:
I think she is saying that Cameron and others' intimations that the murder was politically motivated, and motivated by hate of foreigners etc - and thus, subliminally, Mensch thinks, linked, however tenously, to the Leave campaign - is wrong, and thus any subliminal laying of blame at Leave's door is wrong, because it turns out, according to the Mail, that it was in fact the actions of a man suffering from mental illness and not in possession of a sound mind.kle4 said:
I don't even understand what she is on about - was she responding to a different quote which might justify such a reaction?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:
You know what, I don't care.
The EU referendum was already a poisonous debate, I'm not going to start thinking about most likely cretinous conspiracy theories and absurd over politicising.
How I long for the days when politics was mere dull pablum.
Or something.0 -
I haven't much to be happy about, and a lot of objective reasons to be unhappy - but I keep myself on even keel by this trick - I have a bank of happy narratives about the future and I force my thoughts onto one of them immediately when I start to feel low. Similarly - I had never suffered from nightmares before but a few years ago I had some where I felt I was falling. So I created the response that I was wearing a jet pack and could drift down, sightseeing on the way. The response is so automatic that I am hardly aware of falling before I am flying and the nightmare element is banished. I know you are talking about much more serious things but this might help in a little way.0
-
Could be just a pre-emptive move to reassure shareholders. As Brexit is a 50-50 shot, it would be a brave listed company to come out and say they'd be stuffed by it.BenedictWhite said:Well, Legal and General are not bothered about #Brexit.
0 -
They've been doing it for the past 24 hours!RoyalBlue said:I am expecting more than one of the more excitable Labour MPs to make an explicit link between the murder and Leave on Monday.
Will that resonate with the public, or will it have the reverse reaction?0 -
Oh dear. And there I was thinking the BNP are decent chaps... (Or possibly not)williamglenn said:
Have you seen this story about the man who is the source of the claim he shouted 'Britain First'?glw said:
I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.Tykejohnno said:
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/17/britain-first-eyewitness-bnp-member-list/0 -
She's also best ignored by fanatical supporters of both sides, as well as people who don't care either way.Jobabob said:
Mensch is best ignored by sensible supporters of both sides.KentRising said:
I think she is saying that Cameron and others' intimations that the murder was politically motivated, and motivated by hate of foreigners etc - and thus, subliminally, Mensch thinks, linked, however tenously, to the Leave campaign - is wrong, and thus any subliminal laying of blame at Leave's door is wrong, because it turns out, according to the Mail, that it was in fact the actions of a man suffering from mental illness and not in possession of a sound mind.kle4 said:
I don't even understand what she is on about - was she responding to a different quote which might justify such a reaction?RealBritain said:
A ridiculous request from Louise Mensch.Tykejohnno said:
You know what, I don't care.
The EU referendum was already a poisonous debate, I'm not going to start thinking about most likely cretinous conspiracy theories and absurd over politicising.
How I long for the days when politics was mere dull pablum.
Or something.0
