politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cyclefree on Experts v Commoners
Comments
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Rumours of a TNS poll?0
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Are you thick? Over the same time period our per capita growth has been largely identical to Germany's per capita growth. Comparing absolute values is completely pointless because Germany has a 25% larger population.felix said:
So you're saying that the German economy is now smaller than the UK economy or that at some point in that period we have begun slowly to catch up - I wonder how much of the is since we joined the EUMaxPB said:
I'm looking at the World Bank data and you're empirically wrong. Cumulative UK growth per capita since 1970 is 86.58%, for Germany it is 84.11% since 1970.felix said:
I think we must agree to differ - but I remember the 70-90s rather well.MaxPB said:
No they didn't, and when the advantage is structural it isn't very dangerous.felix said:
I think Germany outperformed the UK when the DM was a lot stronger than the £. Economies tend to work well if they are well-manged both privately and publicly. Over-reliance on the exchange rate to sell your goods is very dangerous.MaxPB said:
Nick believes that Germany = the EU. That's really the only economy in the EU which works better than ours overall, though they are helped hugely by an undervalued currency. The DM would be trading at parity with Sterling, if not slightly stronger.Philip_Thompson said:
How exactly do the other economies "work better"?NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
Unemployment rate:
UK 5.4%
Eurozone 11.0%
Youth Unemployment Rate:
UK 13.2%
Eurozone 21.2%
Participation Ratio
UK 78.3%
Eurozone 56.8%
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how about turnips?felix said:
The big problem for me is that Leave seem to have no clear strategy or view about what actually comes next. Richard Tyndall has suggested an EEA/EFTA deal with an emergency immigration brake. Very attractive - but it seems to suggest no end to Free Movement as such and assumes somehow there'll be no significant cost attached. Try as I might I don't believe it will be that easy - and indeed if it was the 'Brexit deal' how will that go down with the millions planning to vote next week for a permanent end to immigration - because that is what so many actually want and they've been led to believe it's achievable. Nice article but 'fine words butter no parsnips' I'm afraid.NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..0 -
Maybe an unfair comparison, but last May, UKIP took Thanet Council with a majority - the first place in the UK they had such influence. I thought this was fascinating and followed their progress closely. Where are we a year on?felix said:
I think you're right - either way next week is going to reveal a nation divided - quite bitterly and actually much more so than most of the politicians on both sides, which is why the compromise we'll end up with is going to annoy a huge number of voters.tpfkar said:Thanks Cyclefree - although I think you underplay quite how divided our own nation will be after a Brexit vote, and the internal debates which will rage on. I'm far from convinced that Remainers will be hard to find a few months after the vote, particularly once some of the nonsense from the Leave campaigns doesn't survive reality.
I read Alastair Meeks' howl of frustration last night which got a big reaction. On one level I was with him, but I couldn't summon up enough enthusiasm for the EU to be furious with my fellow men; the flaws with the EU are manifest but I still can't see how leaving does anything other than damage ourselves. I think the campaign has brought out the worst in Britain - but if we do leave the argument for working internationally has a blank canvass, and there will be better images to put on it than the worst of Leave and Remain.
I've noted a few green shoots for Remain over the past day or so - some firming up I didn't expect, and I've finally agreed to get off my a**e and do some delivery. And the ultimate gamechanger - who cares about economists, politicians or business figures, when the 5th Doctor Peter Davison has just come out for Remain.....
The majority lasted till November, split apart by personality clashes, and inability to deliver the manifesto pledge on Manston airport. The leader was revealed not to have paid council tax, they've lost a seat in a by-election in January, and have had 2 councillors charged with shop-lifting.
It's so much easier to be 'against' things than responsible for delivering them - I fear the anger may be even greater when Leave campaigners are forced into the world of compromises, deals, and having to be accountable in favour of their brave new world.0 -
Mr Meeks presumably you know some of these wonderfully pure and right on REMAIN people that have asked that of themselves ? Ideally wearing sackcloth and ashes, with a purity of thought at all times. Amen.AlastairMeeks said:That final question is a good one for all of us to ask of ourselves at all times. It is not one which I have seen any of the committed Leavers ask themselves, despite the abundant evidence that Leaving bears substantial risks. It seems to be a belief system rather than a policy, incapable of rebuttal by experience or logic.
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Agreed. I fear I will end up like one of those people who blame Fatcha for everything, only in this case it will all be Blair's fault.John_M said:I agree with you, except we were told that we didn't need transitional controls because few A10 citizens would come. The populace didn't bring this on themselves. Labour did.
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Yep - Leave on Leave is going to be nasty; way nastier than what we have had in this campaign.tpfkar said:
Maybe an unfair comparison, but last May, UKIP took Thanet Council with a majority - the first place in the UK they had such influence. I thought this was fascinating and followed their progress closely. Where are we a year on?felix said:
I think you're right - either way next week is going to reveal a nation divided - quite bitterly and actually much more so than most of the politicians on both sides, which is why the compromise we'll end up with is going to annoy a huge number of voters.tpfkar said:Thanks Cyclefree - although I think you underplay quite how divided our own nation will be after a Brexit vote, and the internal debates which will rage on. I'm far from convinced that Remainers will be hard to find a few months after the vote, particularly once some of the nonsense from the Leave campaigns doesn't survive reality.
I read Alastair Meeks' howl of frustration last night which got a big reaction. On one level I was with him, but I couldn't summon up enough enthusiasm for the EU to be furious with my fellow men; the flaws with the EU are manifest but I still can't see how leaving does anything other than damage ourselves. I think the campaign has brought out the worst in Britain - but if we do leave the argument for working internationally has a blank canvass, and there will be better images to put on it than the worst of Leave and Remain.
I've noted a few green shoots for Remain over the past day or so - some firming up I didn't expect, and I've finally agreed to get off my a**e and do some delivery. And the ultimate gamechanger - who cares about economists, politicians or business figures, when the 5th Doctor Peter Davison has just come out for Remain.....
The majority lasted till November, split apart by personality clashes, and inability to deliver the manifesto pledge on Manston airport. The leader was revealed not to have paid council tax, they've lost a seat in a by-election in January, and have had 2 councillors charged with shop-lifting.
It's so much easier to be 'against' things than responsible for delivering them - I fear the anger may be even greater when Leave campaigners are forced into the world of compromises, deals, and having to be accountable in favour of their brave new world.
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John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony... 0 -
Looks pretty certain we're about to get one.Slackbladder said:Rumours of a TNS poll?
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Thereby proving the old market date "Sell in May..."logical_song said:
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.Mortimer said:
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.GIN1138 said:Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
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Less the Socialists in Spain, though they were guilty too, more PP and, in Catalonia, CiU.Cyclefree said:
Corrections: Spain - where thevSocialist party was up to its neck in corruption allegations. And Andreotti not Andretti.Cyclefree said:
Which democracies work better, Nick?NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain seriously. We are not a two-but country and have much to teach about stable political constitutional settlements. We helped write Germany's after all. It is about the EU doing a bit of self-criticism. The reason immigration is such a concern is because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Bloody iPads!
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Reuters UK Politics @ReutersLobby 5 mins5 minutes ago
BREAKING: "The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out" say TNS #EUref
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Regardless of views, please don't start, you'll only attract conspiracy theorists and their (his) 424 year cycle nonsense....MarqueeMark said:
Thereby proving the old market date "Sell in May..."logical_song said:
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.Mortimer said:
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.GIN1138 said:Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
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Mr. Observer, possibly. Suppose Remain wins, and we get EU national insurance tax numbers and an EU army.
That won't be nice either.0 -
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36530710
So another Muslim fanatic in Europe is responsible for murder. No, Mr Tusk, it's not Brexit which threatens western civilisation it's the stupid border control policy of the EU. We've let in tens of thousands of migrants, amongst them Jihadists and once they're here we've given them free passage.
Nick Palmer, the EU is finished my friend. It had its day about 40 years ago. It's over.0 -
I think pretty much everyone knows that investors don't like uncertainty, and Brexit will bring at least a period of uncertainty. But markets settle down remarkably quickly once they are given enough clarity on future actions.HurstLlama said:
Do you have a forecast on what the level the £ will be five years after Brexit, Mr. Felix?felix said:
And if things are so rosy in the UK why are we not expecting the £ and the FTSE to soar post-Brexit?BlueKen said:Which EU countries work better than the UK? Italy, which has barely grown in a decade? Germany and Sweden, who have watched passively as they have been overwhelmed by unmanaged migration? Spain, with unemployment in the mid-20s for years on end? France, currently paralysed by strikes over the mildest labour reforms? Poland, who have just put the far right in governmenr?
If one looks across the European continent, the two well managed countries that stand out are Norway and Switzerland, neither of which are in the EU.
I won't predict how long the uncertainty will last, because much of that is dependent upon unknowables such as who will follow Cameron. But it needn't last long at all. And if the pound settles lower, so what? It's been as low as $1.05 in my working lifetime.0 -
If this is true, and given it was tweeted by Sam Coates it may well be then maybe we will see crossover in the next 24 hours.Slackbladder said:Reuters UK Politics @ReutersLobby 5 mins5 minutes ago
BREAKING: "The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out" say TNS #EUref0 -
7pt lead for leave rumoured.0
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7 point lead apparently.Slackbladder said:Reuters UK Politics @ReutersLobby 5 mins5 minutes ago
BREAKING: "The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out" say TNS #EUref0 -
Countries where democracy IMO works better - more constructively, more willingness to look ahead, less open to demogagy: Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland for a start - all have radical and populist movements, but political dialogue works in all of them. In Britain it's stifled by trench warfare and sensationalist media. Sure, Germany has a horrible past and we helped design Germany's constitution. But that's 60 years ago. How much longer should we expect special consideration for that?Cyclefree said:
Which democracies work better, Nick?NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain seriously. We are not a two-but country and have much to teach about stable political constitutional settlements. We helped write Germany's after all. It is about the EU doing a bit of self-criticism. The reason immigration is such a concern is because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.0 -
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.logical_song said:
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.Mortimer said:
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.GIN1138 said:Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
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True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.williamglenn said:John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...0 -
"The triumph of democracy, of liberal values, of “progressive” values (however we define these) are not inevitable."
Leads to children who have been raped not reporting their rapists as they are scared the rapists might suffer as they are immigrants/ coloured/ members of a minority group.0 -
TNS really should put the embargo time in the subject header and the top line of the email like ComRes do.0
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Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.John_N4 said:
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.williamglenn said:John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...0 -
Does anyone here follow the derivatives markets, and if so do they have a view on whether waters will stay calm or not on this Friday's triple witching day?0
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Germany where they have a grand coalition? Pull the other one. Denmark, Sweden and Finland are all seeing populist surges as well.NickPalmer said:
Countries where democracy IMO works better - more constructively, more willingness to look ahead, less open to demogagy: Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland for a start - all have radical and populist movements, but political dialogue works in all of them. In Britain it's stifled by trench warfare and sensationalist media. Sure, Germany has a horrible past and we helped design Germany's constitution. But that's 60 years ago. How much longer should we expect special consideration for that?Cyclefree said:
Which democracies work better, Nick?NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain seriously. We are not a two-but country and have much to teach about stable political constitutional settlements. We helped write Germany's after all. It is about the EU doing a bit of self-criticism. The reason immigration is such a concern is because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.
You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.0 -
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.0 -
when has he been wrong.peter_from_putney said:The Daily Telegraph:
"Britain is betting more on Brexit, but I'm punting on Remain"
MATTHEW SHADDICK
LADBROKES' HEAD OF POLITICAL BETTING
Shadsy's not often wrong it has to be said.0 -
Did Reuters break the embargo?!TheScreamingEagles said:TNS really should put the embargo time in the subject header and the top line of the email like ComRes do.
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*U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 47% LEAVE, 40% REMAIN: TNS ONLINE POLL0
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An excellent article by Ms C.ReggieCide said:
I agree completely with your critique of Ms Cyclefree's piece and her previous contributions, and your succinct postscript.YBarddCwsc said:Cyclefree is really out-doing all superlatives, just another wonderful, wonderful article.
I think quite a modest amount of flexibility on the part of the EU would have persuaded enough Reluctant Leavers to be Reluctant Remainers.
Between them Cameron and the EU look like, between them, they are losing an unlosable referendum for precisely the reasons outlined by Ms C. The only bad luck involved is that they've caught a huge anti-establishment wave and the anti EU momentum will only be lost when the EU implodes; Brexit will doubtless accelerate that circumstance. There seems so other outcome possible.
The question in my head is about timing. Why did Cameron rush to the referendum, when he could have taken up to another 2 years? With more time he could have negotiated a better deal. He could have waited until after the French election next year, which I suspect will result in even tougher questions for the EU (and serve as a 'useful' warning against extremism). He could have used the channels of the establishment more subtly to lay a foundation for a remain vote. He could even have agreed 'lines of attack' with Labour.
What was the rush? Early retirement?0 -
I wouldn't like to speculate.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Did Reuters break the embargo?!TheScreamingEagles said:TNS really should put the embargo time in the subject header and the top line of the email like ComRes do.
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Nick seems to treat all of humanity rather like David Attenborough regards a troop of baboons. I don't think it's fair to characterise all pro-EU voices that way.MaxPB said:You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.
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Crickey...what can remain throw at this that they already haven't tried?
I think the establishment thought they would win 60/40 & issue would be dead & buried...seems highly unlikely that will be the case now.0 -
What De Gaulle feared was that we would be a Trojan horse for the new dominant power across the ocean, not that we were not 'Europeans' per se.HurstLlama said:I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years.
People like IDS and Liam Fox epitomise what he was afraid of.0 -
He called the Bristol Mayor race wrong a few years back.nunu said:
when has he been wrong.peter_from_putney said:The Daily Telegraph:
"Britain is betting more on Brexit, but I'm punting on Remain"
MATTHEW SHADDICK
LADBROKES' HEAD OF POLITICAL BETTING
Shadsy's not often wrong it has to be said.0 -
Whoa. How many consecutive polls now showing an increasing Leave lead? I'm starting to think not only that it might happen, but that it could be a significant vote in favour of Leave.Slackbladder said:7pt lead for leave rumoured.
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Or three fronts including Italy.williamglenn said:
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.John_N4 said:
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.williamglenn said:John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...0 -
Why would we want anyone else to follow us out of Europe? We're not trying to form a gang. I take the point that the EU has raised fudge and muddle to an art form - to its detriment.HurstLlama said:
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.0 -
That battle had a number of very local niche reasons.Pulpstar said:
He called the Bristol Mayor race wrong a few years back.nunu said:
when has he been wrong.peter_from_putney said:The Daily Telegraph:
"Britain is betting more on Brexit, but I'm punting on Remain"
MATTHEW SHADDICK
LADBROKES' HEAD OF POLITICAL BETTING
Shadsy's not often wrong it has to be said.0 -
Fair comment, but Shadsy does punt on his own account and usually wins! He also tends to fare well in PB's competitions, although unlike some (modesty prevents), he has yet to be a winner.Pulpstar said:
*cough* bookie's tipsSandpit said:Another very, very good article from Ms @Cyclefree. So many of the guest articles on here are more informed than and worthy of being printed in the mainstream press.
Speaking of which, @Shadsy pops up in the DT today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/britain-is-betting-more-on-brexit-but-im-punting-on-remain/
0 -
Mr. Rose, I think Cameron was either arrogant, or feared the migrant crisis worsening, or both.
I wonder if other pollsters will be issuing final pre-vote polls (as per ICM) soon.0 -
The 6-4 on "leave" is big right now.Sandpit said:
Whoa. How many consecutive polls now showing an increasing Leave lead? I'm starting to think not only that it might happen, but that it could be a significant vote in favour of Leave.Slackbladder said:7pt lead for leave rumoured.
0 -
The Germans will care. If more net contributors followed us out the door the strain on them is going to become immense.John_M said:
Why would we want anyone else to follow us out of Europe? We're not trying to form a gang. I take the point that the EU has raised fudge and muddle to an art form - to its detriment.HurstLlama said:
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.0 -
Oh he's shrew d'enough, but he doesn't always get it right.peter_from_putney said:
Fair comment, but Shadsy does punt on his own account and usually wins! He also tends to fare well in PB's competitions, although unlike some (modesty prevents), he has yet to be a winner.Pulpstar said:
*cough* bookie's tipsSandpit said:Another very, very good article from Ms @Cyclefree. So many of the guest articles on here are more informed than and worthy of being printed in the mainstream press.
Speaking of which, @Shadsy pops up in the DT today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/britain-is-betting-more-on-brexit-but-im-punting-on-remain/0 -
Since Friday night we've had polls showing Leave leads of 7, 7, 7, 8 and 10 points. Remain with a mountain to climb.Sandpit said:
Whoa. How many consecutive polls now showing an increasing Leave lead? I'm starting to think not only that it might happen, but that it could be a significant vote in favour of Leave.Slackbladder said:7pt lead for leave rumoured.
0 -
People wot are privileged enough to get these polls prior to the embargo = "Experts"TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't like to speculate.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Did Reuters break the embargo?!TheScreamingEagles said:TNS really should put the embargo time in the subject header and the top line of the email like ComRes do.
People wot have to wait for the embargo to see the polls = "Commoners"0 -
In nine days Cameron will lie through his teeth to win, don't worry. Osborne already said he will cut benefits for the disabled if we Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:Crickey...what can remain throw at this that they already haven't tried?
I think the establishment thought they would win 60/40 & issue would be dead & buried...seems highly unlikely that will be the case now.0 -
Amazing Michael Crick's Twitter has been hacked.0
-
It does seem that there is now a cluster of polls showing a lead of 7% or so for Leave. That is well outside the margin of error so if the polling companies have got this wrong they will be harking back to the good old days of 2015.0
-
It's not often that it sinks 1 percent or more for a number of days in a row. It's likely that the possibility of Brexit may have contributed to that.John_M said:
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.logical_song said:
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.Mortimer said:
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.GIN1138 said:Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
0 -
I doubt it - REMAIN has actually shortened since early morning, plus they've since been tipped to win by none other than Shadsy ..... yes I know!Brom said:
If this is true, and given it was tweeted by Sam Coates it may well be then maybe we will see crossover in the next 24 hours.Slackbladder said:Reuters UK Politics @ReutersLobby 5 mins5 minutes ago
BREAKING: "The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out" say TNS #EUref0 -
That is a spectacularly unpleasant response. The fact that two parties with different traditions can come together to govern for the good of Germany (as they would see it) surely makes Nick's point for him. And as Nick says also, all countries are having populist surges. The mark of their political maturity and strength is how they deal with them.MaxPB said:
Germany where they have a grand coalition? Pull the other one. Denmark, Sweden and Finland are all seeing populist surges as well.NickPalmer said:
Countries where democracy IMO works better - more constructively, more willingness to look that's 60 years ago. How much longer should we expect special consideration for that?Cyclefree said:
Which democracies work better, Nick?NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.
You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.
0 -
A man of great vision we might say. I think the American Enterprise Institute/G.W Bush United States has extremely marginal appeal in the UK, but a powerful faction in the Tory party. Hopefully that is changing.williamglenn said:
What De Gaulle feared was that we would be a Trojan horse for the new dominant power across the ocean, not that we were not 'Europeans' per se.HurstLlama said:I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years.
People like IDS and Liam Fox epitomise what he was afraid of.0 -
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjectswilliamglenn said:
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.John_N4 said:
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.williamglenn said:John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony.... The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation. 0 -
Oh, gosh. That is a very big statement Mr. Glenn. The strategic initiative on the Eastern Front shifted irrevocably to the Soviets at Kursk in July 1943, nearly a full year before the second front opened. Even if you take in the Western Allies bombing offensive (which really didn't get into top gear until well after Kursk), I think there is very little evidence that supports the contention it was a two front war that stopped USSR falling to the Nazis.williamglenn said:
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.John_N4 said:
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.williamglenn said:John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...0 -
Quite! We have rather a large moat too. This doesn't stop us welcoming immigrants (we have lots of previous on that and quite a lot of present too), but it does help with control.HurstLlama said:
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.0 -
The Balkans were less a factor in the failure to drive on Moscow than Hitler ordering the Wehrmacht to dick around in southern Ukraine during summer '41.John_M said:
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjectswilliamglenn said:
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.John_N4 said:
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.williamglenn said:John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony.... The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.0 -
Mr Llama, the second front opened in July '43 - the invasion of SicilyHurstLlama said:
Oh, gosh. That is a very big statement Mr. Glenn. The strategic initiative on the Eastern Front shifted irrevocably to the Soviets at Kursk in July 1943, nearly a full year before the second front opened. Even if you take in the Western Allies bombing offensive (which really didn't get into top gear until well after Kursk), I think there is very little evidence that supports the contention it was a two front war that stopped USSR falling to the Nazis.williamglenn said:
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.John_N4 said:
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.williamglenn said:John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony... 0 -
The TNS poll is official now
London, 14th June - The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out from polling day.
The survey of 2,497 adults in the UK gives the ‘Leave’ campaign a lead of 7 points over ‘Remain’. Voting intention among likely voters (including those not fully decided but leaning in one direction) is as follows:
Remain 40%, Leave 47%, Undecided/Would not vote 13%
http://www.tnsglobal.co.uk/press-release/leave-campaign-ahead-latest-tns-poll0 -
Oh yes, I do agree, I'm sorry if it seemed otherwise. It's more a mantra of mine that calms the nerves which I wanted to share - I thought you might have worries about your own investment portfolio.logical_song said:
It's not often that it sinks 1 percent or more for a number of days in a row. It's likely that the possibility of Brexit may have contributed to that.John_M said:
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.logical_song said:
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.Mortimer said:
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.GIN1138 said:Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
While I don't expect a collapse as such (cma I don't rule one out), the markets are going to be incredibly volatile for the rest of this year while the implications shake out.0 -
David Cameron's ammunition doesn't have the usual weapons that the newspapers provided for him say back in GE2015.
Doesn't particularly matter if the scare stories are true or not, the great British public doesn't believe him any more. The wolf did eventually come, mind...0 -
Who does TNS poll for?0
-
You've got all the excellent agricultural land in Ukraine. Nice place to be a coloniser.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Balkans were less a factor in the failure to drive on Moscow than Hitler ordering the Wehrmacht to dick around in southern Ukraine during summer '41.John_M said:
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjectswilliamglenn said:
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.John_N4 said:
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.williamglenn said:John_N4 said:
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel? The period after the fall of France was hardly phony.... The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.0 -
peter_from_putney said:
Who does TNS poll for?
themselves (and they did so at GE2015 too).0 -
No client. I believe they just add the political poll onto one of their consumer polls.peter_from_putney said:Who does TNS poll for?
0 -
Alas Mr. M, I fail to see a connection between my post and your idea that we want others to follow us out. That is not something I have ever commented on.John_M said:
Why would we want anyone else to follow us out of Europe? We're not trying to form a gang. I take the point that the EU has raised fudge and muddle to an art form - to its detriment.HurstLlama said:
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.0 -
Really? .... They must have money to burn.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Apparently TNS broke their own embargo.
I sympathise. Premature publishing is a nightmare0 -
Differential turnout will help Remain significantly, I would've thought.
Quite intrigued to see how this goes.0 -
And in reality there is no strong voice other than Frauke Petry's to oppose the government in Germany.SouthamObserver said:
That is a spectacularly unpleasant response. The fact that two parties with different traditions can come together to govern for the good of Germany (as they would see it) surely makes Nick's point for him. And as Nick says also, all countries are having populist surges. The mark of their political maturity and strength is how they deal with them.MaxPB said:
Germany where they have a grand coalition? Pull the other one. Denmark, Sweden and Finland are all seeing populist surges as well.NickPalmer said:
Countries where democracy IMO works better - more constructively, more willingness to look that's 60 years ago. How much longer should we expect special consideration for that?Cyclefree said:
Which democracies work better, Nick?NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.
You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.0 -
No need to be rude. Only since the DDR was absorbed. The figures you quote do not show change over the period a point you choose to ignore. Incidentally also worth remembering that such growth has occurred during both the period of EU membership and relatively high levels of immigration - both of which Leave want to end. Funny that.MaxPB said:
Are you thick? Over the same time period our per capita growth has been largely identical to Germany's per capita growth. Comparing absolute values is completely pointless because Germany has a 25% larger population.felix said:
So you're saying that the German economy is now smaller than the UK economy or that at some point in that period we have begun slowly to catch up - I wonder how much of the is since we joined the EUMaxPB said:
I'm looking at the World Bank data and you're empirically wrong. Cumulative UK growth per capita since 1970 is 86.58%, for Germany it is 84.11% since 1970.felix said:
I think we must agree to differ - but I remember the 70-90s rather well.MaxPB said:
No they didn't, and when the advantage is structural it isn't very dangerous.felix said:
I think Germany outperformed the UK when the DM was a lot stronger than the £. Economies tend to work well if they are well-manged both privately and publicly. Over-reliance on the exchange rate to sell your goods is very dangerous.MaxPB said:
Nick believes that Germany = the EU. That's really the only economy in the EU which works better than ours overall, though they are helped hugely by an undervalued currency. The DM would be trading at parity with Sterling, if not slightly stronger.Philip_Thompson said:
How exactly do the other economies "work better"?NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
Unemployment rate:
UK 5.4%
Eurozone 11.0%
Youth Unemployment Rate:
UK 13.2%
Eurozone 21.2%
Participation Ratio
UK 78.3%
Eurozone 56.8%0 -
This is getting almost dull. Can Ipsos Mori liven things up a little?0
-
Mr Dancer, I think it will be even more exciting than Election Night last year!Morris_Dancer said:Differential turnout will help Remain significantly, I would've thought.
Quite intrigued to see how this goes.0 -
Or perhaps Osborne prodding him in the back saying 'My turn now.'Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rose, I think Cameron was either arrogant, or feared the migrant crisis worsening, or both.
I wonder if other pollsters will be issuing final pre-vote polls (as per ICM) soon.0 -
Ah, my mistake - I was alluding to the post you were replying to regarding Eire's likely exit post ours.HurstLlama said:
Alas Mr. M, I fail to see a connection between my post and your idea that we want others to follow us out. That is not something I have ever commented on.John_M said:
Why would we want anyone else to follow us out of Europe? We're not trying to form a gang. I take the point that the EU has raised fudge and muddle to an art form - to its detriment.HurstLlama said:
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.NickPalmer said:Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.0 -
The market is forward looking - I think it's discounting what it perceives the Brexit result will be and how the flock will react. If your investing horizon stretches more than a month or two then I would suggest sitting pat until post Brexit. If we are leaving it'll take us years to do so and if we remain markets will bounce.logical_song said:
It's not often that it sinks 1 percent or more for a number of days in a row. It's likely that the possibility of Brexit may have contributed to that.John_M said:
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.logical_song said:
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.Mortimer said:
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.GIN1138 said:Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
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20% of TNS's sample said they had already voted postally.0
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Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Observer, possibly. Suppose Remain wins, and we get EU national insurance tax numbers and an EU army.
That won't be nice either.
Why ever not?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, possibly. Suppose Remain wins, and we get EU national insurance tax numbers and an EU army.
That won't be nice either.0 -
I'm going to stop publishing Miss Cyclefree's pieces.
It seems every time I do, a great poll comes out for Leave.0 -
Mr. Rose, perhaps, although Osborne has a very cushy position at the moment.
Dr. Prasannan, you may be right.0 -
Tiny sample for Northern Ireland with TNS but by far the lowest turnout on self certification.0
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I need a poll with a large Remain lead.DavidL said:This is getting almost dull. Can Ipsos Mori liven things up a little?
I've got the worst pun in PB history lined up for it.0 -
In the last week that has been true of most threads. I can't help believing that it will not be this simple and there will be a serious wobble yet.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm going to stop publishing Miss Cyclefree's pieces.
It seems every time I do, a great poll comes out for Leave.0 -
Europe Elects:
UK: Women would vote #Remain (51%), men would vote #Leave (58%) (TNS poll).0 -
My incredibly secret and sophisticated investment strategy is based on 'it's an ill will that blows nobody any good'. Don't tell anyone, that's just between us, right?ReggieCide said:
The market is forward looking - I think it's discounting what it perceives the Brexit result will be and how the flock will react. If your investing horizon stretches more than a month or two then I would suggest sitting pat until post Brexit. If we are leaving it'll take us years to do so and if we remain markets will bounce.logical_song said:
It's not often that it sinks 1 percent or more for a number of days in a row. It's likely that the possibility of Brexit may have contributed to that.John_M said:
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.logical_song said:
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.Mortimer said:
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.GIN1138 said:Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
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By the way, looking at gilts the UK Government's cost of borrowing has today hit record lows; an upside to reduced tax revenues in the event of Brexit. Somebody should crunch the numbers...0
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How many do we expect nationwide? (That sounds high?)NeilVW said:20% of TNS's sample said they had already voted postally.
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Shadsy is a better punter than I'll ever be but, like most of us, he didn't call GE2015 right.peter_from_putney said:
I doubt it - REMAIN has actually shortened since early morning, plus they've since been tipped to win by none other than Shadsy ..... yes I know!Brom said:
If this is true, and given it was tweeted by Sam Coates it may well be then maybe we will see crossover in the next 24 hours.Slackbladder said:Reuters UK Politics @ReutersLobby 5 mins5 minutes ago
BREAKING: "The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out" say TNS #EUref0 -
Keep an eye on Betfair..0
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That's the post-Brexit birth rate down then. Oh the humanity!peter_from_putney said:Europe Elects:
UK: Women would vote #Remain (51%), men would vote #Leave (58%) (TNS poll).0 -
Mr. Putney, if that's totally accurate, even with higher female turnout that must swing it for Leave, no?
Mr. Felix, you tinker, you.0 -
More likely to postal vote, more likely to register online for a panel maybe.NeilVW said:20% of TNS's sample said they had already voted postally.
Any panel based VI survey will always overestimate turnout not just because people love a porky pie but also because the non voters don't sign up for them !0 -
Differential turnout is the great false hope of all losing sides. Couple of weeks ago it was Leave trying to convince themselves that they would be helped by it.Morris_Dancer said:Differential turnout will help Remain significantly, I would've thought.
Quite intrigued to see how this goes.0 -
I seem to remember it was around 17% at the GE last year...TheWhiteRabbit said:
How many do we expect nationwide? (That sounds high?)NeilVW said:20% of TNS's sample said they had already voted postally.
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Mr. Smith, that's sometimes true, though it's worth noting I'm a likely Leave voter so my turnout comment wasn't motivated by hope.
Edited extra bit: edited for grammar purposes.0 -
By what time are we expecting something close to a result?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Mr Dancer, I think it will be even more exciting than Election Night last year!Morris_Dancer said:Differential turnout will help Remain significantly, I would've thought.
Quite intrigued to see how this goes.
Trying to decide whether to go to sleep and wake early, or to stay up the whole night. I'm three hours ahead of the UK so the polls close at 1am, alternatively I could wake up at 6am (3am) and watch from there.
At least, unlike the GE, there won't be loads of bets to make and wrong positions to undo, 1/8 on NOM, free money we all thought!0
