politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ORB poll has Remain’s lead shrinking
Comments
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There'll be a depression, not a recession on either result once the global sovereign debt crisis.....and it won't be due to the Brexit (in the event of that), but that will be a fury and thunder debate for 18 months time on here. I suspect the ground will have moved on very considerably though come the end of 2017 though.FeersumEnjineeya said:
More likely to be more Wollastons looking to the medium term. When the Brexit recession is in full swing and unemployment is going through the roof, they'll be the ones saying, "Don't blame me, I voted Remain!" At least immigration shouldn't be a problem - who's going to want to come here (apart from British pensioners forced back from Spain by a plummeting pension and visa problems)? Quite the contrary: the words "brain drain" may soon enter our vocabulary again.YBarddCwsc said:
Is it possible we will get Reverse Wollastons ?Casino_Royale said:The Remain campaign are in very serious trouble.
No one wants to be associated with a campaign that has the smell of death about it, especially if they only joined for career purposes.
And so far Remain have run the most monumentally stupid campaign since Andy Burnham's leadership bid.0 -
This is all voters, the Sun always tended to back parties which middle class voters voted for, the Tories under Thatcher, New Labour, the Tories under Cameron, even the SNP, this is the first time it is going against middle class voters because its readership is primarily working class and backs Leave, where the undecided middle class goes is pivotalJohn_N4 said:The Sun always backs the winner. This is over.
"ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4)"
What are those figures being compared with? The preceding two ORB polls I've got are
- online, conducted 8-9 June, 55-45 Leave
- phone, 2-5 June, 48-47 Remain0 -
That's fighting talk....AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
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Crosby "Unlike last week, however, Leave’s gains have now also translated to the trend among the electorate as a whole, suggesting that last week’s figures were a reflection of a broad change among public attitude and not just a fleeting bump in the poll numbers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/13/sir-lynton-crosby-leave-has-a-narrow-lead-in-a-sign-its-tactics/0 -
There will be no exit poll other than a post vote yougov poll, the result could not be clear until the final result in Manchesterhunchman said:I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.
And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.
And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.0 -
Calm down Mr Meeks.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible. For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
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Is that what Remain has been campaigning for? Has anyone told the Project Fear team?AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
By which pollster? The figures in brackets are wrong if it's ORB and I've got their preceding phone poll right.SeanT said:
PhoneJohn_N4 said:The Sun always backs the winner. This is over.
"ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4)"
What are those figures being compared with? The preceding two ORB polls I've got are
- online, conducted 8-9 June, 55-45 Leave
- phone, 2-5 June, 48-47 Remain0 -
EICIPMEICIPM said:
Europe Is Crap Its Practically Merde!!!0 -
Do you think Cameron and Osborne have been shocked to their core tonight?
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Awesome ☺RodCrosby said:
People forget how the speech ends...Fenster said:This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!
Team Hearts Over Minds.
'This land of such dear souls, this dear dear land,
Dear for her reputation through the world,
Is now leased out, I die pronouncing it,
Like to a tenement or pelting farm:
England, bound in with the triumphant sea
Whose rocky shore beats back the envious siege
Of watery Neptune, is now bound in with shame,
With inky blots and rotten parchment bonds:
That England, that was wont to conquer others,
Hath made a shameful conquest of itself.
Ah, would the scandal vanish with my life,
How happy then were my ensuing death!'
No need to die, Old John...
Just VOTE to unwind this crap on the 23rd!0 -
Interesting new betfair market
Referendum/Cameron doubles;
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1252035330 -
Mr Meeks having his Jim Davidson moment.0
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Hyperbole much?AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
John Harris @johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
#AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am
I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.0 -
Most people won't take the long view on what immigration can do to a country (never mind what emigration is doing to the source country).SeanT said:
And they are right. We simply cannot sustain perpetual immigration of 300,000-500,000 a year, into a country - England (and it is mainly England) - which is already the most crowded in Europe.Norm said:
You say that but there are many factors at play. Many communities especially in the south east are currently finding huge housing developments are being proposed over what are mainly green fields in areas that have already suffered from over development in the last few years. The knock on effect from increased traffic, pressure on services and a general sense of overcrowding is reducing the quality of life of the many adversely affected. Inevitably immigration and consequently the EU is blamed.Fenster said:This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!
Team Hearts Over Minds.
In a sense what we are seeing is just a natural and inevitable reaction to these enormous flows. If the EU won't let us close the doors, we must do it for ourselves. The people are right.
When you're trying to deal with demographic trends by importing your workforce, you're running a Ponzi scheme. You've punted the can down the road.
I think the biggest challenge is going to be managing peak Global Population (that may not happen in my lifetime ofc).
Of course, something like the widespread deployment of robots and intelligent software agents might just gut the employment market and render this discussion moot.0 -
They are not proper exit polls, only the main networks have the capacity to do those and scientifically weight them, the City's polls will be as useful as the final opinion pollsSeanT said:
Nope. Several banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls. Unless it is incredibly tight, the result will be clear within minutes - on the global Forex and stock markets.HYUFD said:
There will be no exit poll other than a post vote yougov poll, the result could not be clear until the final result in Manchesterhunchman said:I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.
And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.
And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.0 -
John harris videos always worth a watch.rottenborough said:John Harris @johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
#AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am
I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.0 -
Sorry Mr Meeks but your remarks are insulting to leavers like me. I'm no little Englander thank you, I've travelled widely around the world and am proud to regard myself as an Internationalist and very pro-European. I want a Europe that is open to the world, not one hiding behind the common EU external tariff, not engaging with the wider world. Whether you like it or not, the long term cycles are definitive that Asia will rise to become the dominant economic power by around 2030 in the world. We simply have to adjust to that new reality, and if for one moment I felt that the leave campaign represented isolation and introversion then I'd be a very reluctant remainer. I want to freely trade with everyone, freely be able to attract the best talent irrespective of gender, race, creed, colour etc whilst controlling our own destiny.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.0 -
Yet another legacy of Blair's poisonously bad decisions. If we didn't allow free access when the A10 joined and the government didn't have a policy of 'rubbing the right's face in diversity', the cumulative numbers coming here would have been much lower.SeanT said:In a sense what we are seeing is just a natural and inevitable reaction to these enormous flows. If the EU won't let us close the doors, we must do it for ourselves. The people are right.
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Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougovAlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
That was 1992.SeanT said:
Really?Alistair said:
No it didn't. It sat on the fence.SeanT said:The Sun page is interesting. They like to be on the winning side, and usually they are
HOWEVER the Scottish Sun came out for YES
Fair dos. But when, in that case, was that front page when they came out for the Nats, and said Rise up and be a Nation?
In a subsequent front page in 2007 it placed a map of Scotland within an SNP logo shaped noose, so it could never be accused of long term consistency.0 -
Whoever wins half the population are going to be mightily passed off. Much more so than a Ge.
A nasty legacy of a nasty campaign.
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Great news on these polls but we still have 9 full days to go,expect more pro remain help from the Tv news/radio channels,more scare stories and maybe for cameron/remain to throw a bone to the leave voters.0
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Vapid Bilge.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
PLEASE Mr Meeks, get campaigning. Remain need a charming man such as yourself manning a street stall or going door to door canvassing support.HYUFD said:
Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougovAlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
I'm sad that you think in this way. From the idea that leaving the EU means "isolation and introversion" (does a nation state have to be a member of the EU to engage with the world? especially when it's the fifth largest economically??) but also that you will make such a harsh judgement of your fellow countrymen if they vote in an act of self-determination to change their nation's relationship with others. You make it sound like we're about to commit genocide or something. It's really sad.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
Who is the twat?SeanT said:There's a man on Newsnight saying Trump is as responsible for the killing in Orlando as the killer who killed everyone
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Is this meant to matter to someone other than you?AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
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☺☺☺I laughed out loud at that LOL LOL LOLSeanT said:
Off you go then. See if you prefer Viktor Orban's Hungary, where you contentedly have your second home, you pompous twit.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
hear, hear.HYUFD said:
Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougovAlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
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I'm not leaving. Time, however, to think about how I can help change the country for the better. The world isn't going to get less complicated, less mobile or less interconnected, whatever the little Englanders think.SeanT said:
Off you go then. See if you prefer Viktor Orban's Hungary, where you contentedly have your second home, you pompous twit.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
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It cannot possibly be so bad.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
Was he American?SeanT said:There's a man on Newsnight saying Trump is as responsible for the killing in Orlando as the killer who killed everyone
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"That TSE chap deserves a Knighthood"Fat_Steve said:Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?
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Close to £2.5 million has been matched on Betfair in the last 24 hours.
Real money is being staked.0 -
The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.0 -
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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
LEAVE now a 37% chance on Betfair0 -
Peak global population happens in 2100. Already it is stabalising and the growth comes from longer life expectancy particularly in poorer countries.John_M said:
Most people won't take the long view on what immigration can do to a country (never mind what emigration is doing to the source country).SeanT said:
And they are right. We simply cannot sustain perpetual immigration of 300,000-500,000 a year, into a country - England (and it is mainly England) - which is already the most crowded in Europe.Norm said:
You say that but there are many factors at play. Many communities especially in the south east are currently finding huge housing developments are being proposed over what are mainly green fields in areas that have already suffered from over development in the last few years. The knock on effect from increased traffic, pressure on services and a general sense of overcrowding is reducing the quality of life of the many adversely affected. Inevitably immigration and consequently the EU is blamed.Fenster said:This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!
Team Hearts Over Minds.
In a sense what we are seeing is just a natural and inevitable reaction to these enormous flows. If the EU won't let us close the doors, we must do it for ourselves. The people are right.
When you're trying to deal with demographic trends by importing your workforce, you're running a Ponzi scheme. You've punted the can down the road.
I think the biggest challenge is going to be managing peak Global Population (that may not happen in my lifetime ofc).
Of course, something like the widespread deployment of robots and intelligent software agents might just gut the employment market and render this discussion moot.0 -
I don't want anything less than a Royal Dukedom.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
"That TSE chap deserves a Knighthood"Fat_Steve said:Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?
Though I'll accept a GCMG.0 -
I'm sad that Alistair Meeks is upset...RoyalBlue said:
Is this meant to matter to someone other than you?AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
I'm sad that David Cameron (whom I've always liked a lot) could be toast next week.
And I'm sad that we might be about to LEAVE the EU because it didn't have to be this way. The renegotiation was a great opportunity for both sides to reset our relationship and move forward with a new settlement allowing Cameron and REMAIN to make a positive case for staying in the EU with semi-detached status.
Cameron and the EU blew it and left us with little choice than to vote LEAVE0 -
Mr Glenn, If Cameron was not such, well I shant say what I think of him. He might actually have done a deal worth the name and one that he could have sold to the British people. He could then have gone off and been remembered as a great PM.williamglenn said:
If you're a Brexiter he's been the perfect useful idiot. He delivered the majority that looked impossible and then hubris compelled him to push ahead with a referendum at the worst possible moment.HurstLlama said:
Hopefully the Conservative Party will learn the lesson and not elect another untried PR spiv at its next leader. Whichever way the referendum goes I hope the party takes the message that the electorate have had enough of unprincipled snake-oil salesmen.Freggles said:Cameron will be hated by half the country for allowing this referendum to take place and be won by the other side.
The other half will hate him for his conduct during the campaign
@Scott_P
I said I hope that the Conservative Party would not choose another untried snake-oil salesman as their next leader.0 -
Stoke-on-Trent is a prime case study in how Labour has lost touch with the WWC. Stoke has one of the lowest ethnic minority populations of all cities in the UK. The Labour majorities when totalled together in the 3 Stoke seats and Newcastle-under-Lyme came to little more than 12,500 13 months ago. Back as recently as 1992 Labour majorities in NUL and the 3 Stoke seats came to around 45,000. I'd expect North Staffordshire to be 60:40 in the favour of leave given the demographics, maybe even more towards leave.rottenborough said:John Harris @johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
#AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am
I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.0 -
Probably it would help the LEAVE campaign.MP_SE said:
PLEASE Mr Meeks, get campaigning. Remain need a charming man such as yourself manning a street stall or going door to door canvassing support.HYUFD said:
Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougovAlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
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Double it, for the real chance...TCPoliticalBetting said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
LEAVE now a 37% chance on Betfair0 -
Yes, he has certainly been one of the first to try and awaken Labour elite to the meltdown that is happening to its traditional core vote 'out in the sticks'.FrancisUrquhart said:
John harris videos always worth a watch.rottenborough said:John Harris @johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
#AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am
I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.0 -
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.0 -
Cheer up.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not leaving. Time, however, to think about how I can help change the country for the better. The world isn't going to get less complicated, less mobile or less interconnected, whatever the little Englanders think.SeanT said:
Off you go then. See if you prefer Viktor Orban's Hungary, where you contentedly have your second home, you pompous twit.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
You're a lawyer. Brexit will make you and your ilk richer than Trump. You can then get funny hair and buy your way to power in whatever is left.0 -
I'm struggling to understand how 60% of Labour voters are for remain given all we're hearing from Islington. You'd think it was about 90-10 out.0
-
Yes but the Labour party gave them Tristram Hunt as a representative of the people......... Allegedly fixed up by Mandelson.hunchman said:
Stoke-on-Trent is a prime case study in how Labour has lost touch with the WWC. Stoke has one of the lowest ethnic minority populations of all cities in the UK. The Labour majorities when totalled together in the 3 Stoke seats and Newcastle-under-Lyme came to little more than 12,500. Back as recently as 1992 Labour majorities in NUL and the 3 Stoke seats came to around 45,000. I'd expect North Staffordshire to be 60:40 in the favour of leave given the demographics, maybe even more towards leave.rottenborough said:John Harris @johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
#AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am
I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.
0 -
I dont think that's necessarily true. Whatever happens will seem, afterwards, like it it was always inevitable. If leave win, within six months we'll be saying "do you remember when WE used to want be in the EU ? "Jonathan said:Whoever wins half the population are going to be mightily passed off. Much more so than a Ge.
A nasty legacy of a nasty campaign.0 -
That may be so, but other people cannot get their heads around that even people who don't care about immigration can want to Leave. I dare say not a majority of Leavers, but enough such that it is incorrect to think it is the only factor of importance.tyson said:
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.0 -
Mike and I actually predicted this about a month ago in a phone call.
Mike: I'm headed to Spain on Bank Holiday Monday, and back June 20th, so back just in time for the referendum.
Me: So I reckon we'll see a few large Leave leads in your absence, a run on Sterling, The FTSE 100 tanking
Mike: How do you think Mr Cameron will feel if I stay out in Spain till the 24th of June?0 -
Hmm. The major pollsters have said no to doing an exit poll for broadcasters as there is no prior data line.SeanT said:
Nope. Several banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls. Unless it is incredibly tight, the result will be clear within minutes - on the global Forex and stock markets.HYUFD said:
There will be no exit poll other than a post vote yougov poll, the result could not be clear until the final result in Manchesterhunchman said:I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.
And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.
And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.0 -
#PrayforRemain0
-
Equally it's possible for people who do care about immigration to be for Remain.kle4 said:
That may be so, but other people cannot get their heads around that even people who don't care about immigration can want to Leave. I dare say not a majority of Leavers, but enough such that it is incorrect to think it is the only factor of importance.tyson said:
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.0 -
Oh I personally will be materially just fine. Laws changing is always great for lawyers.Jonathan said:
Cheer up.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not leaving. Time, however, to think about how I can help change the country for the better. The world isn't going to get less complicated, less mobile or less interconnected, whatever the little Englanders think.SeanT said:
Off you go then. See if you prefer Viktor Orban's Hungary, where you contentedly have your second home, you pompous twit.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
You're a lawyer. Brexit will make you and your ilk richer than Trump. You can then get funny hair and buy your way to power in whatever is left.
Though I'm past even the wig-wearing stage now.0 -
Tykejohnno said:
Great news on these polls but we still have 9 full days to go,expect more pro remain help from the Tv news/radio channels,more scare stories and maybe for cameron/remain to throw a bone to the leave voters.
Or maybe, reasonable people saying that we don't want to lurch the UK into the hands of racism, populism, nastiness....that is what we are playing for.0 -
Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.0 -
If he focuses on getting out the metropolitan AB vote I am sure he can be of some useMP_SE said:
PLEASE Mr Meeks, get campaigning. Remain need a charming man such as yourself manning a street stall or going door to door canvassing support.HYUFD said:
Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougovAlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
Indeed, there are no bellwether polling stations in a referendum.HYUFD said:
They are not proper exit polls, only the main networks have the capacity to do those and scientifically weight them, the City's polls will be as useful as the final opinion pollsSeanT said:
Nope. Several banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls. Unless it is incredibly tight, the result will be clear within minutes - on the global Forex and stock markets.HYUFD said:
There will be no exit poll other than a post vote yougov poll, the result could not be clear until the final result in Manchesterhunchman said:I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.
And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.
And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.0 -
A few years ago stoke voted a load of BNP councillors...certainly playing on fear of immigration but more a big f##k you to political establishment that they didn't feel represented by...wouldn't surprise if get a big leave vote for a similar reason.0
-
Stoke Central was already trending away from Labour before Mr Hunt arrived on the scene:TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes but the Labour party gave them Tristram Hunt as a representative of the people......... Allegedly fixed up by Mandelson.hunchman said:
Stoke-on-Trent is a prime case study in how Labour has lost touch with the WWC. Stoke has one of the lowest ethnic minority populations of all cities in the UK. The Labour majorities when totalled together in the 3 Stoke seats and Newcastle-under-Lyme came to little more than 12,500. Back as recently as 1992 Labour majorities in NUL and the 3 Stoke seats came to around 45,000. I'd expect North Staffordshire to be 60:40 in the favour of leave given the demographics, maybe even more towards leave.rottenborough said:John Harris @johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
#AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am
I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Look how Mark Fisher's majority fell from 19k in 1997 to under 10k in 2005.0 -
In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.Fenster said:
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.
0 -
Indeed, I can accept people whinging for a bit AFTER the result but not 10 days BEFORE the result, every second spent whinging is a second lost getting out the vote in such a close racerottenborough said:
hear, hear.HYUFD said:
Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougovAlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.0 -
I've never thought anything else, or posted anything else other than the leave campaign is abhorrently racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.Mortimer said:
Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
0 -
....and the council is now basically a rainbow coalition of anyone but Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:A few years ago stoke voted a load of BNP councillors...certainly playing on fear of immigration but more a big f##k you to political establishment that they didn't feel represented by...wouldn't surprise if get a big leave vote for a similar reason.
0 -
Gove seems to be that un-Tory thing, an ideologue.SouthamObserver said:
In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.Fenster said:
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.0 -
"That said, he could be the perfect guy for sniffing out Labour LEAVERS"SeanT said:
He was brilliant in Scotland during the Labour GE meltdown. However he called that by-election, which Corbyn's Labour won, badly wrong. I forget which one it was.rottenborough said:
Yes, he has certainly been one of the first to try and awaken Labour elite to the meltdown that is happening to its traditional core vote 'out in the sticks'.FrancisUrquhart said:
John harris videos always worth a watch.rottenborough said:John Harris @johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
#AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am
I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.
I can't help thinking, truly excellent journalist that he is, that is more attuned to disenchanted Labourites than loyalists. The former make for a better story. He wants a story.
That said, he could be the perfect guy for sniffing out Labour LEAVERS
Not an arduous job frankly.0 -
Now the real fight begins.Fat_Steve said:Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?
Plenty of Tory Leavers were already angry at his betrayal in confirming he was for Remain. Many more have been apoplectic at his conduct while campaigning for Remain. If he has the sheer gall to win the vote as well, they'll eat him alive as soon as they can, unless he can craft an exist strategy quick enough to stop them erupting in an orgy of party self destruction.0 -
And quite possibly the majority of the British public.tyson said:
I never thought anything else, or posted anything else that the leave campaign is racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.Mortimer said:
Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
Not a fan of democracy?0 -
Leave means controlling immigration. The economic damage that will cause cannot now be sidestepped if Leave win. That is now Leave's raison d'être.SouthamObserver said:
In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.Fenster said:
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.0 -
Let them eat SovereigntySouthamObserver said:In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.
0 -
Sounds like Alastair Meeks has already moved into Stage 4.hunchman said:I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.
And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.
And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.
Cheer up Alastair! This is still the same country that it was a year ago. It's just that around half of it's voters disagree with you about the workability and effectiveness for Britain of membership of one complex multinational institution. Discouraging for you, but nothing to get too sad about. If I got all introspective every time half my countrymen took a different view to me about something I'd never get anything done.
The world will still turn; you will still have the love and laughter of those closest to you.
And.despite everything I still can't quite believe we might actually vote Leave. Don't referenda always swing back by 5 to 10% at the last minute?
I'm still voting Leave though. Sorry.0 -
Do you still rely on NickP's canvass reports?FrankBooth said:I'm struggling to understand how 60% of Labour voters are for remain given all we're hearing from Islington. You'd think it was about 90-10 out.
0 -
So much bitterness from certain remainers. Worth considering that us leavers have had to suffer decades of being in the EU, it seems now the mere sniff of a brexit is on the cards certain people are acting like petulant children with baseless accusations and ruining their long built up reputations.0
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The inevitable rise in unemployment as the economy nosedives will surely lead naturally to a substantial reduction in immigration, especially from the EU. Why would they want to come here?SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.0 -
And all people who intend to vote leave by extension are racists? Come on Tyson, you make a lot of good posts even if I don't agree with them, but you can do a lot better than this drivel.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.0 -
You've got Tony Blair. Plus Mandeson and Osborne. Oh and Neill Kinnock. And Editor Izzard.tyson said:
I've never thought anything else, or posted anything else other than the leave campaign is abhorrently racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.Mortimer said:
Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.0 -
I have no intention of hanging together with those who have taken the country on a course without any planning or coherent idea of what they want against my judgement. Why should I?SeanT said:
Quite so. Well said.williamglenn said:
Equally it's possible for people who do care about immigration to be for Remain.kle4 said:
That may be so, but other people cannot get their heads around that even people who don't care about immigration can want to Leave. I dare say not a majority of Leavers, but enough such that it is incorrect to think it is the only factor of importance.tyson said:
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
If we BREXIT we need to remember we are all Brits. And we will be fine, if we hang together rather than hang apart. We've come through far worse.0 -
I'm out on a limb on the trade deals but my boss, like you, is a businessman. He is very wealthy (eight figures territory) and he said the EU will move the goalposts in the event of a Brexit. He said money talks and the big business players across Europe will all want a new settlement.SouthamObserver said:
In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.Fenster said:
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.
Basically Brexit will change everything.0 -
Mr Tyson is refreshingly honest in disliking the downsides of democracy in fact - I've no doubt others share the sentiment but don't admit to it.Mortimer said:
And quite possibly the majority of the British public.tyson said:
I never thought anything else, or posted anything else that the leave campaign is racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.Mortimer said:
Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
Not a fan of democracy?0 -
Why will stopping most of the circa 80%+ of the EU migration which are unskilled jobs, cause economic damage, since these jobs can be done by British people that are not in work?AlastairMeeks said:
Leave means controlling immigration. The economic damage that will cause cannot now be sidestepped if Leave win. That is now Leave's raison d'être.SouthamObserver said:
In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.Fenster said:
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.
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it had the lowest turnout in the country last G.E a lot of Labour voters must be staying at home thats why the majority is so small.hunchman said:
Stoke Central was already trending away from Labour before Mr Hunt arrived on the scene:TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes but the Labour party gave them Tristram Hunt as a representative of the people......... Allegedly fixed up by Mandelson.hunchman said:
Stoke-on-Trent is a prime case study in how Labour has lost touch with the WWC. Stoke has one of the lowest ethnic minority populations of all cities in the UK. The Labour majorities when totalled together in the 3 Stoke seats and Newcastle-under-Lyme came to little more than 12,500. Back as recently as 1992 Labour majorities in NUL and the 3 Stoke seats came to around 45,000. I'd expect North Staffordshire to be 60:40 in the favour of leave given the demographics, maybe even more towards leave.rottenborough said:John Harris @johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
#AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am
I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Look how Mark Fisher's majority fell from 19k in 1997 to under 10k in 2005.0 -
We'll see. Tory Leavers have said what they've needed to say in order to win. They'll find ways to wriggle out of what sounded at the time like firm commitments. Voters will, of course, notice.AlastairMeeks said:
Leave means controlling immigration. The economic damage that will cause cannot now be sidestepped if Leave win. That is now Leave's raison d'être.SouthamObserver said:
In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.Fenster said:
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.
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Is she a useful bellwether for predicting results generally?SeanT said:
And my Mum.tyson said:
I've never thought anything else, or posted anything else other than the leave campaign is abhorrently racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.Mortimer said:
Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
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You can look to the Germany of the 30's to realise that democracy didn't quite achieve the best outcomes. Or maybe you can join yourself to other Brexiters, like our very own Rod who are holocaust deniers.Mortimer said:
And quite possibly the majority of the British public.tyson said:
I never thought anything else, or posted anything else that the leave campaign is racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.Mortimer said:
Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
Not a fan of democracy?
Brexit is nihilistic, horrible, nasty, populist, regressive, reactionary politics. But it is built on a winning formula as we have seen in Putin's Russia, Serbian nationalism, and Nazism, and many others of its ilk.
Brexit is unleashing a beast into England and Europe.
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For once I agree with you (although it wouldn't be Brexit to blame, but the global sovereign debt crisis). And if we get into a depression with a sovereign debt crisis then we could even see an outflow (small) the other way as incredulous as it seems right now. But look at what has happened in Greece - there are many people who emigrated there and simply haven't got the financial resources to return to where they came from.FeersumEnjineeya said:
The inevitable rise in unemployment as the economy nosedives will surely lead naturally to a substantial reduction in immigration, especially from the EU. Why would they want to come here?SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.Fenster said:
Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.AlastairMeeks said:It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.
We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.
PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.0 -
A refreshingly honest anti-democrat still has no respect for the views of the people.kle4 said:
Mr Tyson is refreshingly honest in disliking the downsides of democracy in fact - I've no doubt others share the sentiment but don't admit to it.Mortimer said:
And quite possibly the majority of the British public.tyson said:
I never thought anything else, or posted anything else that the leave campaign is racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.Mortimer said:
Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.tyson said:The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.
BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
Not a fan of democracy?0
