politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a batch of phone polls on the way LEAVE punters might

weejonnie said:

alex. said:

Has anyone estimated the extra costs to the country of policing these systems of tariffs with the wider world now that we can't outsource the job to the EU?

Also what are the VAT implications for buying and selling goods to the EU in future?

The EU lets us keep 25% of the tariffs on imported goods as an administration fee.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?

No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.

We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.

Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.

So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week

Starting to look like a no brainer

murali_s said:

alex. said:

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/742066996767031296

One might have thought that a Presidential candidate would take a bit of care of establishing the facts before tweeting every rumour they hear.

But this is Donald Trump - certified loon and bigot.

RobD said:

Freggles said:

RodCrosby said:

Spot the difference

Rubio: "Islamic terrorists need to know they will not win..."

Clinton: "this was an act of terror"

Rubio doesn't care if non-Islamic terrorists know they will not win?

A fair statement in the context of recent events, especially given the struggle with ISIS.

RobD said:

murali_s said:

alex. said:

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/742066996767031296

One might have thought that a Presidential candidate would take a bit of care of establishing the facts before tweeting every rumour they hear.

But this is Donald Trump - certified loon and bigot.

of PB Burley proportions?

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

chestnut said:

We need gas from Norway, but the rest ?

What do Europe have that no one else does?

A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.

I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

IanB2 said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

...It also favours domestic producers.

Devaluation favours domestic producers by making imports more expensive

So instead of an iPad for Xmas, you get an Amstrad Ofucno.

Oh, goody

Which part of the EU makes iPads?

A lower £ makes all imports more expensive, not just EU ones...

That depends on if they are tariff items, and whether the tariff is removed once we are liberated.

Unfortunately not. A 20% devaluation in GBP would outweigh any tariff less than 25%.

But it benefits UK exporters and increase price competitiveness of domestic producers, doesn't it?

A Midlands made Jaguar would become cheaper than an Audi/BMW, if my recall is correct - both here and in Germany.

alex. said:

BenedictWhite said:

TOPPING said:

BenedictWhite said:

TOPPING said:

@Philip_Thompson

and importing inflation is a price worth paying?

Good question.

Is inflation currently dangerously low or high?

Inflation is currently a non-issue and isn't expected to be one for some time. But that is not to say we should vote to make it more of an issue than it is today.

Ah. So it is currently dangerously low which is why Mark Carney has to write to George Osborne once a month to say what he is doing about it, but because that is a massive flaw in your argument you would like to side step it.

Got it, thanks. That's all cleared up.

The fact that the Bank of England legislation requires the Governor to explain why inflation is falling outside of a narrow band around a predetermined "target" does not mean that it is "dangerously low", especially as the current rate is likely to rise as fuel rises come back into the figures. Many people would say that real inflation is ridiculously high, if you factor in housing costs...

Freggles said:

RobD said:

Freggles said:

RodCrosby said:

Spot the difference

Rubio: "Islamic terrorists need to know they will not win..."

Clinton: "this was an act of terror"

Rubio doesn't care if non-Islamic terrorists know they will not win?

A fair statement in the context of recent events, especially given the struggle with ISIS.

If it had been a right-wing extremist and Clinton had said "Ultra-conservative terrorists need to know they will not win", everyone would have been all over her for being specific and caring more about some types of terrorism!

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Here's a question Richard.

I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.

Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).

I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.

For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.

Yes I do think we could put ourselves in a better position economically because I think the most likely outcome from Brexit will be an EEA relationship. As such our trade with the EU will not be affected whilst we will be free to pursue our own trade agreements with the rest of the world. We will also be able to take part in the decision making process which sets the rules for world trade. Something we are currently unable to do directly.

I also strongly believe that Brexit will lead to a much quicker move to political union in the EU which will help solve the problems the Eurozone has been having with its own economic union. In the medium to long term this will benefit trade as a whole for the world economy.

As an aside - and it is not directly linked to this conversation right now - I dislike the continual reference to GDP instead of to GDP per capita. It is quite possible for GDP to increase whilst GDP per capita drops and that is certainly not good for a country.

Your last point first - addressed in my post to @MarkHopkins.

Your other points (although we have rehearsed this many times): despite my assumption of great pragmatism by rEU if we leave, I am not sure it they would accept us as an EEA membership. Looking at the emergency brake, for example, it is frought with problems a) to use permanently; and b) to apply it to the UK.

At ever stage (every three months) they would be looking for reasons for us to stop using it. That is not the situation of a grown up country.

I am also cautious about the length that WTO discussions take - if you think dealing with 27 countries is tricky..

MP_SE said:

RoyalBlue said:

Canvassing report

Not so positive today - Remain were actually ahead. I had my first 'unpleasant' doorstep experiences, both men in their 30s/40s. I think Leave will struggle with middle-class families with young children.

Where were you canvassing?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MarkSenior said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

IanB2 said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

...It also favours domestic producers.

Devaluation favours domestic producers by making imports more expensive

So instead of an iPad for Xmas, you get an Amstrad Ofucno.

Oh, goody

Which part of the EU makes iPads?

A lower £ makes all imports more expensive, not just EU ones...

That depends on if they are tariff items, and whether the tariff is removed once we are liberated.

Unfortunately not. A 20% devaluation in GBP would outweigh any tariff less than 25%.

But it benefits UK exporters and increase price competitiveness of domestic producers, doesn't it?

A Midlands made Jaguar would become cheaper than an Audi/BMW, if my recall is correct - both here and in Germany.

True , but it wont make our coal any cheaper as we don't mine any or our ships any cheaper as we don't build any any more etc .

That can be fixed

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

chestnut said:

We need gas from Norway, but the rest ?

What do Europe have that no one else does?

A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.

I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.

Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

chestnut said:

We need gas from Norway, but the rest ?

What do Europe have that no one else does?

A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.

I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.

Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?

No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.

We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.

Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.

So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week

Starting to look like a no brainer

Luckyguy1983 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?

No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.

We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.

Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.

So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week

Starting to look like a no brainer

There is what I believe is another £2 billion a year going out of the International Aid budget to the European Commission. This isn't included in our 'fees' as Remain supporting outlets are careful to call them, but would have probably been included in the original 'pink book' figure used by Vote Leave. I wouldn't be surprised if there's additional money flowing to the EU from other departmental budgets too.

MarkSenior said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MarkSenior said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

IanB2 said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

...It also favours domestic producers.

Devaluation favours domestic producers by making imports more expensive

So instead of an iPad for Xmas, you get an Amstrad Ofucno.

Oh, goody

Which part of the EU makes iPads?

A lower £ makes all imports more expensive, not just EU ones...

That depends on if they are tariff items, and whether the tariff is removed once we are liberated.

Unfortunately not. A 20% devaluation in GBP would outweigh any tariff less than 25%.

But it benefits UK exporters and increase price competitiveness of domestic producers, doesn't it?

A Midlands made Jaguar would become cheaper than an Audi/BMW, if my recall is correct - both here and in Germany.

True , but it wont make our coal any cheaper as we don't mine any or our ships any cheaper as we don't build any any more etc .

That can be fixed

Dream on , what took years to destroy will take decades to rebuild .

weejonnie said:

alex. said:

Has anyone estimated the extra costs to the country of policing these systems of tariffs with the wider world now that we can't outsource the job to the EU?

Also what are the VAT implications for buying and selling goods to the EU in future?

The EU lets us keep 25% of the tariffs on imported goods as an administration fee.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Here's a question Richard.

I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.

Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).

I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.

For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.

Yes I do think we could put ourselves in a better position economically because I think the most likely outcome from Brexit will be an EEA relationship. As such our trade with the EU will not be affected whilst we will be free to pursue our own trade agreements with the rest of the world. We will also be able to take part in the decision making process which sets the rules for world trade. Something we are currently unable to do directly.

I also strongly believe that Brexit will lead to a much quicker move to political union in the EU which will help solve the problems the Eurozone has been having with its own economic union. In the medium to long term this will benefit trade as a whole for the world economy.

As an aside - and it is not directly linked to this conversation right now - I dislike the continual reference to GDP instead of to GDP per capita. It is quite possible for GDP to increase whilst GDP per capita drops and that is certainly not good for a country.

Your last point first - addressed in my post to @MarkHopkins.

Your other points (although we have rehearsed this many times): despite my assumption of great pragmatism by rEU if we leave, I am not sure it they would accept us as an EEA membership. Looking at the emergency brake, for example, it is frought with problems a) to use permanently; and b) to apply it to the UK.

At ever stage (every three months) they would be looking for reasons for us to stop using it. That is not the situation of a grown up country.

I am also cautious about the length that WTO discussions take - if you think dealing with 27 countries is tricky..

You have indeed said it before but as I have pointed out before the EU has no control over whether or not we join EFTA and so remain in the EEA. Short of tearing up the whole EEA agreement they cannot stop us remaining in something to which we are an independent signatory unless we breach the terms of the treaty. So if we join EFTA (again something the EU has no power over) then we will remain in the EEA.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

@rcs1000 did you mean to phrase your last post precisely like that?

Not exacary...

MarkSenior said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MarkSenior said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

IanB2 said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

...It also favours domestic producers.

Devaluation favours domestic producers by making imports more expensive

So instead of an iPad for Xmas, you get an Amstrad Ofucno.

Oh, goody

Which part of the EU makes iPads?

A lower £ makes all imports more expensive, not just EU ones...

That depends on if they are tariff items, and whether the tariff is removed once we are liberated.

Unfortunately not. A 20% devaluation in GBP would outweigh any tariff less than 25%.

But it benefits UK exporters and increase price competitiveness of domestic producers, doesn't it?

A Midlands made Jaguar would become cheaper than an Audi/BMW, if my recall is correct - both here and in Germany.

True , but it wont make our coal any cheaper as we don't mine any or our ships any cheaper as we don't build any any more etc .

That can be fixed

Dream on , what took years to destroy will take decades to rebuild .

Luckyguy1983 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?

No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.

We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.

Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.

So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week

Starting to look like a no brainer

There is what I believe is another £2 billion a year going out of the International Aid budget to the European Commission. This isn't included in our 'fees' as Remain supporting outlets are careful to call them, but would have probably been included in the original 'pink book' figure used by Vote Leave. I wouldn't be surprised if there's additional money flowing to the EU from other departmental budgets too.

rcs1000 said:

I have a new theory. Brexit followed by rational people in charge (Richard_T or Charles), no negative impact on sterling.

Brexit followed by "Oh my God, we can improve the British economy by slapping a whole bunch of tariffs on everything!", result pretty horrible decline in sterling.

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

chestnut said:

We need gas from Norway, but the rest ?

What do Europe have that no one else does?

A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.

I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.

Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

chestnut said:

We need gas from Norway, but the rest ?

What do Europe have that no one else does?

A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.

I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.

Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.

Rioja is indeed important but if there was a risk that the French would stop selling us Chablis I would have to reconsider. And some of their cheeses come to that.

I really don't get why Remain focus on completely irrelevant things like London house prices and interest rates when they can claim a threat to our true essentials.

I had a chat to a very senior chef the other day, who told me a lot of the French cheeses are superior because they totally ignore EU regulations regarding refrigeration during production. Unpick the EUref bones out of that one.

alex. said:

BenedictWhite said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

IanB2 said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

...It also favours domestic producers.

Devaluation favours domestic producers by making imports more expensive

So instead of an iPad for Xmas, you get an Amstrad Ofucno.

Oh, goody

Which part of the EU makes iPads?

A lower £ makes all imports more expensive, not just EU ones...

That depends on if they are tariff items, and whether the tariff is removed once we are liberated.

Unfortunately not. A 20% devaluation in GBP would outweigh any tariff less than 25%.

Sorry I thought the Stronger in scare story was a 10% devaluation. Are scare tactics now running rampant 100% inflation?

The 10% is what's already happened. The additional 20% what's still to come.

alex. said:

BenedictWhite said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

IanB2 said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

...It also favours domestic producers.

Devaluation favours domestic producers by making imports more expensive

So instead of an iPad for Xmas, you get an Amstrad Ofucno.

Oh, goody

Which part of the EU makes iPads?

A lower £ makes all imports more expensive, not just EU ones...

That depends on if they are tariff items, and whether the tariff is removed once we are liberated.

Unfortunately not. A 20% devaluation in GBP would outweigh any tariff less than 25%.

Sorry I thought the Stronger in scare story was a 10% devaluation. Are scare tactics now running rampant 100% inflation?

The 10% is what's already happened. The additional 20% what's still to come.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MP_SE said:

RoyalBlue said:

MP_SE said:

RoyalBlue said:

Canvassing report

Not so positive today - Remain were actually ahead. I had my first 'unpleasant' doorstep experiences, both men in their 30s/40s. I think Leave will struggle with middle-class families with young children.

Where were you canvassing?

My usual stamping ground - Sarf East London.

London will always be a tricky one for Leave. I am seeing a decent amount of support for Leave in Surrey.

Can you be more precise as to location?

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?

No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.

We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.

Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.

So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week

Starting to look like a no brainer

There is what I believe is another £2 billion a year going out of the International Aid budget to the European Commission. This isn't included in our 'fees' as Remain supporting outlets are careful to call them, but would have probably been included in the original 'pink book' figure used by Vote Leave. I wouldn't be surprised if there's additional money flowing to the EU from other departmental budgets too.

Have you pinged the Leave campaign with that?

No. Thought about it but wouldn't know who best to contact. It would also require a FOI request - the last report that gives a breakdown of 'Multilateral Overseas Development Aid' by organisation was in 2013. The 2014 report doesn't show this breakdown, at least not in a format that I can decipher.

rcs1000 said:

British coal mines closed down because they were uncompetitive. It would cost around $220/tonnes to commercially mine coal in the UK.

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

I have a new theory. Brexit followed by rational people in charge (Richard_T or Charles), no negative impact on sterling.

Brexit followed by "Oh my God, we can improve the British economy by slapping a whole bunch of tariffs on everything!", result pretty horrible decline in sterling.

Agreed.

You don't have to be Robert Peel to realise this....

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

chestnut said:

We need gas from Norway, but the rest ?

What do Europe have that no one else does?

A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.

I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.

Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

chestnut said:

We need gas from Norway, but the rest ?

What do Europe have that no one else does?

A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.

I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.

Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.

Rioja is indeed important but if there was a risk that the French would stop selling us Chablis I would have to reconsider. And some of their cheeses come to that.

I really don't get why Remain focus on completely irrelevant things like London house prices and interest rates when they can claim a threat to our true essentials.

I had a chat to a very senior chef the other day, who told me a lot of the French cheeses are superior because they totally ignore EU regulations regarding refrigeration during production. Unpick the EUref bones out of that one.

SeanT said:

TINY ANECDOTE ALERT

My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.

She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.

But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.

I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of

REMAIN 56
LEAVE 44

SeanT said:

TINY ANECDOTE ALERT

My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.

She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.

But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.

I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of

REMAIN 56
LEAVE 44

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

British coal mines closed down because they were uncompetitive. It would cost around $220/tonnes to commercially mine coal in the UK.

...and it would have to be open-cast. We just don't have the culture that would allow family members to become miners anymore. Generation Snowflake would not cope in a community where blue scars, missing fingers and toes, and coughing yourself to death in your 30s/40s/50s are the norm, not the exception. Miners were known as hard bastards for good reason.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

British coal mines closed down because they were uncompetitive. It would cost around $220/tonnes to commercially mine coal in the UK.

...and it would have to be open-cast. We just don't have the culture that would allow family members to become miners anymore. Generation Snowflake would not cope in a community where blue scars, missing fingers and toes, and coughing yourself to death in your 30s/40s/50s are the norm, not the exception. Miners were known as hard bastards for good reason.

There was nothing my greatgrandfather, a miner, wanted more than the knowledge his descendants wouldn't have to join him.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

TINY ANECDOTE ALERT

My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.

She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.

But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.

I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of

REMAIN 56
LEAVE 44

You do know that father's day is next Sunday, right?

Or are you getting your anecdotes in early.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

British coal mines closed down because they were uncompetitive. It would cost around $220/tonnes to commercially mine coal in the UK.

...and it would have to be open-cast. We just don't have the culture that would allow family members to become miners anymore. Generation Snowflake would not cope in a community where blue scars, missing fingers and toes, and coughing yourself to death in your 30s/40s/50s are the norm, not the exception. Miners were known as hard bastards for good reason.

There was nothing my greatgrandfather, a miner, wanted more than the knowledge his descendants wouldn't have to join him.

roserees64 said:

I'm voting to Remain ... but I fit the expected demographic for doing so.

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?

No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.

We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.

Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.

So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week

Starting to look like a no brainer

There is what I believe is another £2 billion a year going out of the International Aid budget to the European Commission. This isn't included in our 'fees' as Remain supporting outlets are careful to call them, but would have probably been included in the original 'pink book' figure used by Vote Leave. I wouldn't be surprised if there's additional money flowing to the EU from other departmental budgets too.

Have you pinged the Leave campaign with that?

No. Thought about it but wouldn't know who best to contact. It would also require a FOI request - the last report that gives a breakdown of 'Multilateral Overseas Development Aid' by organisation was in 2013. The 2014 report doesn't show this breakdown, at least not in a format that I can decipher.

Well, even the 2013 numbers would be useful. As for who to contact, not sure. Twitter seems like a good place, but then you might just end up with the PR intern in charge of the twitter account.

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

TINY ANECDOTE ALERT

My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.

She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.

But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.

I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of

REMAIN 56
LEAVE 44

Depressing. How many will bottle it in the polling booth?

AnneJGP said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MarkSenior said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MarkSenior said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

IanB2 said:

chestnut said:

viewcode said:

chestnut said:

...It also favours domestic producers.

Devaluation favours domestic producers by making imports more expensive

So instead of an iPad for Xmas, you get an Amstrad Ofucno.

Oh, goody

Which part of the EU makes iPads?

A lower £ makes all imports more expensive, not just EU ones...

That depends on if they are tariff items, and whether the tariff is removed once we are liberated.

Unfortunately not. A 20% devaluation in GBP would outweigh any tariff less than 25%.

But it benefits UK exporters and increase price competitiveness of domestic producers, doesn't it?

A Midlands made Jaguar would become cheaper than an Audi/BMW, if my recall is correct - both here and in Germany.

True , but it wont make our coal any cheaper as we don't mine any or our ships any cheaper as we don't build any any more etc .

That can be fixed

Dream on , what took years to destroy will take decades to rebuild .

Luckyguy1983 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?

No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.

We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.

Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.

So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week

Starting to look like a no brainer

There is what I believe is another £2 billion a year going out of the International Aid budget to the European Commission. This isn't included in our 'fees' as Remain supporting outlets are careful to call them, but would have probably been included in the original 'pink book' figure used by Vote Leave. I wouldn't be surprised if there's additional money flowing to the EU from other departmental budgets too.

No wonder they are worried about us leaving and Barclays say it will be far worse for the EU economically than us

Whether or not the EU are worried about the UK leaving, I am still scratching my head over why Mr Cameron never took into account the possibility we might vote to leave.