The issue over immigration in Labour's heartlands is often one of 'Fairness'. People feel that they are being undercut in the workplace, pushed down the list in public services.
At the same time, post Brexit, Freedom of Movement will not significantly alter, because we won;t leave the Single Market. So we will have to deal with the feeling that fairness has been lost somehow in the system.
So the only way to do this is by re addressing the role of the state, and especially the welfare state, in the life of the nation. An element of this will almost certainly be a realignment around a contributory system - so that welfare becomes a social insurance policy (as I think its founders envisaged).
Labour has a particular advantage here, because it can talk about welfare in a way that the Tories can't, and also has the most to gain in terms of re aligning its own core with the post Brexit settlement, especially Leave voters who have defected to UKIP in recent years.
I am very wary of all these tales of huge numbers of postal votes for Leave and excellent canvassing returns. It reminds me of UKIP in Oldham.
It sounds like a Remain GOTV story to me, bang on about how huge the Leave vote is going to be in the hopes of getting Remainers off the sofa.
Keep your eyes peeled on what the campaigns do, not what they say.
Well, on last night's debate evidence, that looks very good for Leave, giving that Remain campaign got their pitch badly wrong.
I think it is a measure of the failure of the Remain campaign to offer any positive purpose to being in the EU that this referendum feels to be moving inexorably towards answering a question not directly on the ballot paper, namely "Who do you want to control our borders, Britain or Brussels?" That only has one outcome.
The best thing about a Brexit vote will be that it will finally require a grown up discussion about what we as a country want. An economy where growth is dependent upon 300,000 a year migration? Or an economy that maybe does not grow as fast, but allows a far better planned structure to our needs for housing, for health, for education? For too long ALL parties of government have assumed the British people were too immature to have this discussion, instead just bouncing them into ever higher immigration without debate. The message of this Referendum will be that has to stop. We need to talk...
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
Hence why I adopted Mrs Duffy as my icon for the referendum. Why would the working class voters back REMAIN and more immigration?
I am very wary of all these tales of huge numbers of postal votes for Leave and excellent canvassing returns. It reminds me of UKIP in Oldham.
Me too - however the behaviour, tone and tactics of Remain don't look like a side that's winning to me.
Does anyone remember that labour chap last general election saying labour postal vote returns had been poor? We wrote him off at the time but he was spot on.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always t reall do.
Chill. You yourself have oted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
If the UK votes Leave expecting a significant drop in immigration, and we go EEA/EFTA, assuming we can, then the emergency brake can only be triggered in exceptional circumstances. Unemployment of 5.1% and the highest employment for nearly 50 years ain't exceptional. Or rather, it is but not in the way that supports using the emergency brake.
If you argue that the sheer volume of immigration should support the emergency brake, then it will be pointed out that with the corresponding sheer volume of visitors to the UK, and no entry/exit ledger, it would be virtually impossible to implement.
And then people say we can vote out the government if, after leaving the EU they re-enter it through EEA/EFTA, but as I have pointed out previously, what would the alternative then be? Lab? Cons? UKIP? The first two of these are, generally pro-EU, pro-immigration (or at least a majority in parliament would be) so the electorate would effectively have been disenfranchised.
You are wrong. EEA is not subject to the ECJ.
EEA writes EU law into the EEA agreement, EU law is subject to ECJ oversight. For example, if EU law said widgets had to be red and Norway produced them in green, it would be the ECJ which opined on the legality of it (if Norway wanted to sell them to the EU).
The EFTA Court opines on matters between EFTA states.
Question for PB'ers: If Leave do actually win how long is it likely Dave will survive and how long before we get a new PM?
Gone very quickly, and one of the value bets is on a 2016 or 2017 election.
This is not a usual change of PM in office, it requires nearly a whole new front bench and cabinet, as well as the various opposition parties to put together their Leave manifestos to the country.
We'd have a funny sort of interregnum then with nobody actually in power for a few weeks. I assume Dave would not formally cease to be PM until his successor had been to see the queen. (I hope he wouldn't do anything silly or spiteful in the meantime). Personally I find the whole prospect refreshing. Dave and Ozzy have become tired, achieving little and with ambition to achieve little. I feel we need a new start. God forbid that Corbyn should be that new start.
The flip side of that is Merkel and Hollande and Junker with a tag line "Don't let them dictate your future". Dictate being a rather loaded word, but all's fair in love and referenda.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
I've seen comments elsewhere from several men saying WTF? And a load of others who found Rudd 'scary'.
And tons referring to Team Remain as mean girls or Macbeth's three witches. Whatever the strategy - it's not winning many friends.
The views re Leadsom/Gisela seem universal. And that Boris was more measured than most of us would be after the torrent of abuse.
Does anybody have a list of what councils/areas are likely to declare first. Always feel these give a good betting opportunity as they tend to panic people. If it's going to be the likes of Basildon, Bassetlaw and Sunderland then feels like a good time to buy leave now and sell once these results are in.
Sunderland - needs leave to be 53-47 for it to be a thai on Chris Hanretty's model.
It would be a serious act of bad faith for Britain to negotiate entry into the EEA, whose core principle is free movement, and then immediately abrogate it. If it did happen, the EC Commission would immediately put the proposed measures into arbitration and they would without any doubt win it.
(Unless the purpose of Brexit is to trash our economy so comprehensively that it is a genuine emergency)
The EEA is overseen by the EFTA court, which is a special version of the ECJ.
Which as has already been pointed out concerns itself only with the very small amount of legislation that directly relates to the single market and has no remit to act on behalf of Ever Closer Union.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always t reall do.
Chill. You yourself have oted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
If the UK votes Leave expecting a significant drop in immigration, and we go EEA/EFTA, assuming we can, then the emergency brake can only be triggered in exceptional circumstances. Unemployment of 5.1% and the highest employment for nearly 50 years ain't exceptional. Or rather, it is but not in the way that supports using the emergency brake.
If you argue that the sheer volume of immigration should support the emergency brake, then it will be pointed out that with the corresponding sheer volume of visitors to the UK, and no entry/exit ledger, it would be virtually impossible to implement.
And then people say we can vote out the government if, after leaving the EU they re-enter it through EEA/EFTA, but as I have pointed out previously, what would the alternative then be? Lab? Cons? UKIP? The first two of these are, generally pro-EU, pro-immigration (or at least a majority in parliament would be) so the electorate would effectively have been disenfranchised.
You are wrong. EEA is not subject to the ECJ.
EEA writes EU law into the EEA agreement, EU law is subject to ECJ oversight. For example, if EU law said widgets had to be red and Norway produced them in green, it would be the ECJ which opined on the legality of it (if Norway wanted to sell them to the EU).
The EFTA Court opines on matters between EFTA states.
Wrong, but EFTA court tends to follow ECJ judgements on matters of trade - it is not compelled.
The flip side of that is Merkel and Hollande and Junker with a tag line "Don't let them dictate your future". Dictate being a rather loaded word, but all's fair in love and referenda.
That would be a seriously good poster.
This one above is rubbish because people don't seem to mind seeing the decision as a bit of an economic gamble if it brings back control.
Yes Scott, you might say that people consider it a price worth paying.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always t reall do.
Chill. You yourself have oted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
If the UK votes Leave expecting a significant drop in immigration, and we go EEA/EFTA, assuming we can, then the emergency brake can only be triggered in exceptional circumstances. Unemployment of 5.1% and the highest employment for nearly 50 years ain't exceptional. Or rather, it is but not in the way that supports using the emergency brake.
If you argue that the sheer volume of immigration should support the emergency brake, then it will be pointed out that with the corresponding sheer volume of visitors to the UK, and no entry/exit ledger, it would be virtually impossible to implement.
And then people say we can vote out the government if, after leaving the EU they re-enter it through EEA/EFTA, but as I have pointed out previously, what would the alternative then be? Lab? Cons? UKIP? The first two of these are, generally pro-EU, pro-immigration (or at least a majority in parliament would be) so the electorate would effectively have been disenfranchised.
You are wrong. EEA is not subject to the ECJ.
EEA writes EU law into the EEA agreement, EU law is subject to ECJ oversight. For example, if EU law said widgets had to be red and Norway produced them in green, it would be the ECJ which opined on the legality of it (if Norway wanted to sell them to the EU).
The EFTA Court opines on matters between EFTA states.
Open Europe: "Crucially, the UK would no longer be subject to ECJ jurisdiction. EFTA states are not subject to monitoring and surveillance by the EU institutions but have their own Surveillance Authority and Court which monitor compliance with EEA law. EFTA infringement procedures are fairly similar to the mechanisms for monitoring compliance in EU member states but the EFTA Court does not have the same authority as the EU’s Court of Justice to issue binding decisions, only recommendations and advisory opinions."
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
I've seen comments elsewhere from several men saying WTF? And a load of others who found Rudd 'scary'.
And tons referring to Team Remain as mean girls or Macbeth's three witches. Whatever the strategy - it's not winning many friends.
The views re Leadsom/Gisela seem universal. And that Boris was more measured than most of us would be after the torrent of abuse.
Initially in the media it was a bit "wow she hammered Boris" to change on reflection into a "surprising attack by a cabinet minister" and now a "Cameron/Osborne authorised the attack". REMAIN should be suffering a hang over after that.
It would be a serious act of bad faith for Britain to negotiate entry into the EEA, whose core principle is free movement, and then immediately abrogate it. If it did happen, the EC Commission would immediately put the proposed measures into arbitration and they would without any doubt win it.
(Unless the purpose of Brexit is to trash our economy so comprehensively that it is a genuine emergency)
The EEA is overseen by the EFTA court, which is a special version of the ECJ.
Which as has already been pointed out concerns itself only with the very small amount of legislation that directly relates to the single market and has no remit to act on behalf of Ever Closer Union.
What we are talking about here is whether a post-Brexit government can abrogate from the freedom of movement principle that is enshrined in the EEA. Some have suggested invoking the safeguard measures contained in the agreement. Otherwise immigration will carry on as now.
I am very wary of all these tales of huge numbers of postal votes for Leave and excellent canvassing returns. It reminds me of UKIP in Oldham.
It sounds like a Remain GOTV story to me, bang on about how huge the Leave vote is going to be in the hopes of getting Remainers off the sofa.
Keep your eyes peeled on what the campaigns do, not what they say.
Well, on last night's debate evidence, that looks very good for Leave, giving that Remain campaign got their pitch badly wrong.
I think it is a measure of the failure of the Remain campaign to offer any positive purpose to being in the EU that this referendum feels to be moving inexorably towards answering a question not directly on the ballot paper, namely "Who do you want to control our borders, Britain or Brussels?" That only has one outcome.
The best thing about a Brexit vote will be that it will finally require a grown up discussion about what we as a country want. An economy where growth is dependent upon 300,000 a year migration? Or an economy that maybe does not grow as fast, but allows a far better planned structure to our needs for housing, for health, for education? For too long ALL parties of government have assumed the British people were too immature to have this discussion, instead just bouncing them into ever higher immigration without debate. The message of this Referendum will be that has to stop. We need to talk...
Yes, MM. And we mustn't forget that much of that is to do with the middle-class, graduate, London-centric, cross-party political class that has grown in Westminster to the extent that they are now baffled by what (might) be happening.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always t reall do.
Chill. You yourself have oted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
If the UK votes Leave expecting a significant drop in immigration, and we go EEA/EFTA, assuming we can, then the emergency brake can only be triggered in exceptional circumstances. Unemployment of 5.1% and the highest employment for nearly 50 years ain't exceptional. Or rather, it is but not in the way that supports using the emergency brake.
If you argue that the sheer volume of immigration should support the emergency brake, then it will be pointed out that with the corresponding sheer volume of visitors to the UK, and no entry/exit ledger, it would be virtually impossible to implement.
And then people say we can vote out the government if, after leaving the EU they re-enter it through EEA/EFTA, but as I have pointed out previously, what would the alternative then be? Lab? Cons? UKIP? The first two of these are, generally pro-EU, pro-immigration (or at least a majority in parliament would be) so the electorate would effectively have been disenfranchised.
You are wrong. EEA is not subject to the ECJ.
EEA writes EU law into the EEA agreement, EU law is subject to ECJ oversight. For example, if EU law said widgets had to be red and Norway produced them in green, it would be the ECJ which opined on the legality of it (if Norway wanted to sell them to the EU).
The EFTA Court opines on matters between EFTA states.
Wrong, but EFTA court tends to follow ECJ judgements on matters of trade - it is not compelled.
I am very wary of all these tales of huge numbers of postal votes for Leave and excellent canvassing returns. It reminds me of UKIP in Oldham.
Me too - however the behaviour, tone and tactics of Remain don't look like a side that's winning to me.
Does anyone remember that labour chap last general election saying labour postal vote returns had been poor? We wrote him off at the time but he was spot on.
I remember at put £20 on Con majority based on that and the desperate late night meeting with Russell Brand. I also asked four 70+ year old Conservatives if they thought a majority possible and they dismissed the chances.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
The issue over immigration in Labour's heartlands is often one of 'Fairness'. People feel that they are being undercut in the workplace, pushed down the list in public services.
At the same time, post Brexit, Freedom of Movement will not significantly alter, because we won;t leave the Single Market. So we will have to deal with the feeling that fairness has been lost somehow in the system.
Interesting Labour pitch on immigration the Leave camp have called for an Australian-style points-based system for migrants, and yet Australia has twice as many migrants per person than we do.
What’s more, the whole purpose of the Aussie system is to give businesses more control over who they bring into the country – which tends to be the cheapest workers – forcing down wages and doing absolutely nothing to address concerns about insecure employment.
EEA writes EU law into the EEA agreement, EU law is subject to ECJ oversight. For example, if EU law said widgets had to be red and Norway produced them in green, it would be the ECJ which opined on the legality of it (if Norway wanted to sell them to the EU).
The EFTA Court opines on matters between EFTA states.
Wrong, but EFTA court tends to follow ECJ judgements on matters of trade - it is not compelled.
More precisely the EFTA Court applies the EEA legislation, which is a subset of the full EU legislation, in the non EU countries - in the same way as the ECJ applies the full EU law in its jurisdiction. In principle there should be no difference in their judgments.
Numbers are crucial in the referendum. Politicians do deals and they do deals within the boundaries of both what they are electorally liable to deliver, and what is politically possible.
65/35% to Leave means a clear, clean break and probably an ambitious strike out for full independence and a bespoke trade deal.
51/49% to Leave probably means a slow and steady disengagement, through the EEA, preserving full access to the single market.
51/49 to Remain puts our EU membership on probation "one last chance"
65/35 to Remain settles our EU membership for a generation
Question for PB'ers: If Leave do actually win how long is it likely Dave will survive and how long before we get a new PM?
One day and then we get a temporary Leader such as Gove.
Cameron will remain as Leader during the campaign. But I agree that he'll resign on Friday 24th.
Depends, if he tries to invoke Article 50 straight away etc... LEAVE have to assert them selves over the Govt and sideline Osborne and his tentacles in the party. It needs a Gove type of person at top and demotion of Osborne as "first secy" or whatever title he has.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
I've seen comments elsewhere from several men saying WTF? And a load of others who found Rudd 'scary'.
And tons referring to Team Remain as mean girls or Macbeth's three witches. Whatever the strategy - it's not winning many friends.
The views re Leadsom/Gisela seem universal. And that Boris was more measured than most of us would be after the torrent of abuse.
Initially in the media it was a bit "wow she hammered Boris" to change on reflection into a "surprising attack by a cabinet minister" and now a "Cameron/Osborne authorised the attack". REMAIN should be suffering a hang over after that.
I still can't get over Rudd being Leadsom's boss. And Eagles going all party political given Gisela was on the other side. The Barbara Castle line backfired fantastically.
Question for PB'ers: If Leave do actually win how long is it likely Dave will survive and how long before we get a new PM?
I think he'd announce the next morning that he'll depart as PM within a couple of months.
Cameron is very classy and doesn't appear to have the office-clingery of a Brown, so I suspect he would be very statesmanlike, make it clear that the British public have made an historic decision and although he fully respects that decision it would be presumptuous of him to remain as PM having campaigned against it.
The Tories tend to be more businesslike than Labour and far less visceral so there'd be less hard feelings. Therefore I suspect many of the mainstream Brexit Tories would want Cameron to stick around in some capacity. He's undeniably an electoral asset and the most impressive operator of all the big political beasts.
But this is all just opinion. I know nothing really.
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
Which is why Labour is whispering out of both sides of its mouth. Union paymasters want to Remain, many, many, many of their voters want to Leave.
The biggest miscalculation of this campaign will prove to be that Labour voters were overwhelmingly for Remain. 75:25 I've heard it said. It is going to be much closer to 50:50.
Cameron and Osborne relying on Labour to get them over the line? That's dumb planning. Then coupled with insulting your natural base as Little Englanders? Double dumb.
Question for PB'ers: If Leave do actually win how long is it likely Dave will survive and how long before we get a new PM?
Gone very quickly, and one of the value bets is on a 2016 or 2017 election.
This is not a usual change of PM in office, it requires nearly a whole new front bench and cabinet, as well as the various opposition parties to put together their Leave manifestos to the country.
We'd have a funny sort of interregnum then with nobody actually in power for a few weeks. I assume Dave would not formally cease to be PM until his successor had been to see the queen. (I hope he wouldn't do anything silly or spiteful in the meantime). Personally I find the whole prospect refreshing. Dave and Ozzy have become tired, achieving little and with ambition to achieve little. I feel we need a new start. God forbid that Corbyn should be that new start.
Corbyn may well come up with a very interesting Leave manifesto, and quite possibly one that would make PB Tories apoplectic. It may well appeal much more to the public than one written by Tory headbangers.
Remainers may also prefer Jezza to be leading the negotiations.
I am very wary of all these tales of huge numbers of postal votes for Leave and excellent canvassing returns. It reminds me of UKIP in Oldham.
It sounds like a Remain GOTV story to me, bang on about how huge the Leave vote is going to be in the hopes of getting Remainers off the sofa.
Keep your eyes peeled on what the campaigns do, not what they say.
Well, on last night's debate evidence, that looks very good for Leave, giving that Remain campaign got their pitch badly wrong.
I think it is a measure of the failure of the Remain campaign to offer any positive purpose to being in the EU that this referendum feels to be moving inexorably towards answering a question not directly on the ballot paper, namely "Who do you want to control our borders, Britain or Brussels?" That only has one outcome.
The best thing about a Brexit vote will be that it will finally require a grown up discussion about what we as a country want. An economy where growth is dependent upon 300,000 a year migration? Or an economy that maybe does not grow as fast, but allows a far better planned structure to our needs for housing, for health, for education? For too long ALL parties of government have assumed the British people were too immature to have this discussion, instead just bouncing them into ever higher immigration without debate. The message of this Referendum will be that has to stop. We need to talk...
Good morning all. Because both camps are necessarily broad churches, then who ever wins will be getting all manner of unpleasant surprises. People keep asserting that the EU has abandoned its integrationist tendencies; there's plenty of evidence suggesting that they're wrong.
My concerns about immigration (jokes about parochial racist xenophobes aside) relate to the sustained volume combined with our terrible planning laws and lack of infrastructure investment.
The EU can't be the sole bogeyman for the immigration; May has failed to control non-EU immigration, which should be well within her remit (last year's figures for net migration 184k EU, 188k non-EU).
I agree with your overall point; we need to have a sensible discussion about immigration without the usual virtue signalling wankers screaming 'waaaaacist' every five freaking minutes.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
I've seen comments elsewhere from several men saying WTF? And a load of others who found Rudd 'scary'.
And tons referring to Team Remain as mean girls or Macbeth's three witches. Whatever the strategy - it's not winning many friends.
The views re Leadsom/Gisela seem universal. And that Boris was more measured than most of us would be after the torrent of abuse.
Initially in the media it was a bit "wow she hammered Boris" to change on reflection into a "surprising attack by a cabinet minister" and now a "Cameron/Osborne authorised the attack". REMAIN should be suffering a hang over after that.
I still can't get over Rudd being Leadsom's boss. And Eagles going all party political given Gisela was on the other side. The Barbara Castle line backfired fantastically.
Wouldn't want to be in that particular ministry this morning...
Question for PB'ers: If Leave do actually win how long is it likely Dave will survive and how long before we get a new PM?
A new leader will be introduced to the Party Conference and the timetable for nominations, members' voting and the MPs' vote will be centred around that. No need for a temporary leader as the HoC breaks up for its annual 3 months holiday in about 4 weeks time.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
Does anybody have a list of what councils/areas are likely to declare first. Always feel these give a good betting opportunity as they tend to panic people. If it's going to be the likes of Basildon, Bassetlaw and Sunderland then feels like a good time to buy leave now and sell once these results are in.
Sunderland - needs leave to be 53-47 for it to be a thai on Chris Hanretty's model.
53%+ means Leave love you long time?
I worked out some figures based on the 2015 election and the forecast (based on opinion as to likelihood to vote) came out as a statistical tie. It depended on Labour voters being heavily for Remain though and from what has been reported, that seems less likely to be as heavy as previously expected.
Remain can win this in a simple statement. "Vote Remain or the price of your cigs and beer will go up a lot." - Panem et circences
Open Europe: "Crucially, the UK would no longer be subject to ECJ jurisdiction. EFTA states are not subject to monitoring and surveillance by the EU institutions but have their own Surveillance Authority and Court which monitor compliance with EEA law. EFTA infringement procedures are fairly similar to the mechanisms for monitoring compliance in EU membedvr states but the EFTA Court does not have the same authority as the EU’s Court of Justice to issue binding decisions, only recommendations and advisory opinions."
Members of the EEA are obliged by the treaty to carry out the judgments of the EFTA Court. They are not "advisory"
Off topic - do other people have a problem of the insertion point jumping to different places in your comment as you type?
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
That's what a lot of men are interpreting it as.
WOW!
But when this is all over everyone is going to come back together, hold hands and start singing kumbaya...
Numbers are crucial in the referendum. Politicians do deals and they do deals within the boundaries of both what they are electorally liable to deliver, and what is politically possible.
65/35% to Leave means a clear, clean break and probably an ambitious strike out for full independence and a bespoke trade deal.
51/49% to Leave probably means a slow and steady disengagement, through the EEA, preserving full access to the single market.
51/49 to Remain puts our EU membership on probation "one last chance"
65/35 to Remain settles our EU membership for a generation
Sorry - but ANY Remain majority will be taken as 'overwhelming evidence that the UK fully supports the EU project' - witness Hollande's - resounding victory over Sarkozy - that was 51-49 IIRC.
Did I watch the same programme? Leadsom was terrible IMHO. Amber Rudd completely outshone anyone else.
Rudd looked and sounded just as overbearing and nasty as you would expect from the Tories.
Rudd was awful. I thought Gisela Stuart was very calm and measured, Leadsom seemed more hampered by having to defend the indefensible (£350m and other nonsense).
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
No it doesn't. The ECJ has no power to rule over EFTA members at all under the EEA treaty.
Numbers are crucial in the referendum. Politicians do deals and they do deals within the boundaries of both what they are electorally liable to deliver, and what is politically possible.
65/35% to Leave means a clear, clean break and probably an ambitious strike out for full independence and a bespoke trade deal.
51/49% to Leave probably means a slow and steady disengagement, through the EEA, preserving full access to the single market.
51/49 to Remain puts our EU membership on probation "one last chance"
65/35 to Remain settles our EU membership for a generation
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
Which is why Labour is whispering out of both sides of its mouth. Union paymasters want to Remain, many, many, many of their voters want to Leave.
The biggest miscalculation of this campaign will prove to be that Labour voters were overwhelmingly for Remain. 75:25 I've heard it said. It is going to be much closer to 50:50.
Cameron and Osborne relying on Labour to get them over the line? That's dumb planning. Then coupled with insulting your natural base as Little Englanders? Double dumb.
Tories breaking 55/45 to Leave and Labour 60/40 to Remain gives a result of Leave 50.7% and Remain 49.3% on my spreadsheet.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Paris): Northern Ireland v Germany – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
One has to wonder if having the referendum in the middle of Euro 2016 is a deliberate tactic to distract the WWC.
Something went wrong if it was, there are no matches on the day votes are cast, and the student vote is going to be away at Glastonbury or backpacking around the world.
I wonder how many yoof registered to vote late only to find they will be at Glasto anyway...
Wrong, but EFTA court tends to follow ECJ judgements on matters of trade - it is not compelled.
More precisely the EFTA Court applies the EEA legislation, which is a subset of the full EU legislation, in the non EU countries - in the same way as the ECJ applies the full EU law in its jurisdiction. In principle there should be no difference in their judgments.
Thank you. Much, much clearer. I think in my clumsy and non-technical way, I was trying to say that ( ).
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
Yes she said that.
She had 1 minute to roundup why we should remain in the EU, this once in a lifetime decision, and she/Osborne/Cameron/PPE Spad thought that would be the best line to take.
Down in the gutter. I hope a large proportion of the Tory party won't forgive or forget that.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
I've seen comments elsewhere from several men saying WTF? And a load of others who found Rudd 'scary'.
And tons referring to Team Remain as mean girls or Macbeth's three witches. Whatever the strategy - it's not winning many friends.
The views re Leadsom/Gisela seem universal. And that Boris was more measured than most of us would be after the torrent of abuse.
Initially in the media it was a bit "wow she hammered Boris" to change on reflection into a "surprising attack by a cabinet minister" and now a "Cameron/Osborne authorised the attack". REMAIN should be suffering a hang over after that.
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
Question for PB'ers: If Leave do actually win how long is it likely Dave will survive and how long before we get a new PM?
I think he'd announce the next morning that he'll depart as PM within a couple of months.
Cameron is very classy and doesn't appear to have the office-clingery of a Brown, so I suspect he would be very statesmanlike, make it clear that the British public have made an historic decision and although he fully respects that decision it would be presumptuous of him to remain as PM having campaigned against it.
The Tories tend to be more businesslike than Labour and far less visceral so there'd be less hard feelings. Therefore I suspect many of the mainstream Brexit Tories would want Cameron to stick around in some capacity. He's undeniably an electoral asset and the most impressive operator of all the big political beasts.
But this is all just opinion. I know nothing really.
"The Tories tend to be more businesslike than Labour and far less visceral" Maybe, but not over Europe.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
No it doesn't. The ECJ has no power to rule over EFTA members at all under the EEA treaty.
Yes I know - pls refer to @FF43 who has said very clearly what eluded me on the keyboard this morning!
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
Which is why Labour is whispering out of both sides of its mouth. Union paymasters want to Remain, many, many, many of their voters want to Leave.
The biggest miscalculation of this campaign will prove to be that Labour voters were overwhelmingly for Remain. 75:25 I've heard it said. It is going to be much closer to 50:50.
Cameron and Osborne relying on Labour to get them over the line? That's dumb planning. Then coupled with insulting your natural base as Little Englanders? Double dumb.
Does anybody have a list of what councils/areas are likely to declare first. Always feel these give a good betting opportunity as they tend to panic people. If it's going to be the likes of Basildon, Bassetlaw and Sunderland then feels like a good time to buy leave now and sell once these results are in.
Sunderland - needs leave to be 53-47 for it to be a thai on Chris Hanretty's model.
53%+ means Leave love you long time?
I worked out some figures based on the 2015 election and the forecast (based on opinion as to likelihood to vote) came out as a statistical tie. It depended on Labour voters being heavily for Remain though and from what has been reported, that seems less likely to be as heavy as previously expected.
Remain can win this in a simple statement. "Vote Remain or the price of your cigs and beer will go up a lot." - Panem et circences
I'm seeing quite a few dumb remain posts in my facebook feed alleging exactly that. Plus you'll need a visa to go on holiday and so on. However, I'm guessing that many who might be influenced by this kind of nonsense are also not registered/unlikely to turn out
The issue over immigration in Labour's heartlands is often one of 'Fairness'. People feel that they are being undercut in the workplace, pushed down the list in public services.
At the same time, post Brexit, Freedom of Movement will not significantly alter, because we won;t leave the Single Market. So we will have to deal with the feeling that fairness has been lost somehow in the system.
Interesting Labour pitch on immigration the Leave camp have called for an Australian-style points-based system for migrants, and yet Australia has twice as many migrants per person than we do.
What’s more, the whole purpose of the Aussie system is to give businesses more control over who they bring into the country – which tends to be the cheapest workers – forcing down wages and doing absolutely nothing to address concerns about insecure employment.
The Remain willful twisting of the Oz system is pathetic. Its basically saying tv remote controls are bad because Mrs Miggins in no 24 uses it to watch QVC ergo remotes are bad.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
Yes she said that.
She had 1 minute to roundup why we should remain in the EU, this once in a lifetime decision, and she/Osborne/Cameron/PPE Spad thought that would be the best line to take.
Down in the gutter. I hope a large proportion of the Tory party won't forgive or forget that.
There's only two ways to interpret it:
1. Boris would drunken drive and risk your safety 2. Boris would attempt to grope you on the way home if you were drunk
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
I've seen comments elsewhere from several men saying WTF? And a load of others who found Rudd 'scary'.
And tons referring to Team Remain as mean girls or Macbeth's three witches. Whatever the strategy - it's not winning many friends.
The views re Leadsom/Gisela seem universal. And that Boris was more measured than most of us would be after the torrent of abuse.
Initially in the media it was a bit "wow she hammered Boris" to change on reflection into a "surprising attack by a cabinet minister" and now a "Cameron/Osborne authorised the attack". REMAIN should be suffering a hang over after that.
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
I'm just so WTF about this - it's become an idee fixe. Nothing else seems to matter.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
Yes she said that.
She had 1 minute to roundup why we should remain in the EU, this once in a lifetime decision, and she/Osborne/Cameron/PPE Spad thought that would be the best line to take.
Down in the gutter. I hope a large proportion of the Tory party won't forgive or forget that.
There's only two ways to interpret it:
1. Boris would drunken drive and risk your safety 2. Boris would attempt to grope you on the way home if you were drunk
Both are awful.
I took it as:
3. Boris is fun at the party but as he's been drinking you should get a taxi.
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
Which is why Labour is whispering out of both sides of its mouth. Union paymasters want to Remain, many, many, many of their voters want to Leave.
The biggest miscalculation of this campaign will prove to be that Labour voters were overwhelmingly for Remain. 75:25 I've heard it said. It is going to be much closer to 50:50.
Cameron and Osborne relying on Labour to get them over the line? That's dumb planning. Then coupled with insulting your natural base as Little Englanders? Double dumb.
Tories breaking 55/45 to Leave and Labour 60/40 to Remain gives a result of Leave 50.7% and Remain 49.3% on my spreadsheet.
In Sunderland Central - using 2015 election results.
So in Sunderland a 46.87% Remain, 53.13% Leave vote would suggest a win for Leave - and Remain have to lose 48 - 52 or less to have a chance. (assuming Uniform Party-referendum swings)
Are the results declared by constituency or are they aggregated into regions?
My sister tells me after dining with a senior figure at the US embassy that the Trump camp already wields considerable influence there and that Trump and co are assuming Leave will win because, from their strange point of view, it's going to win with their help so how could it lose? She also says the embassy itself is planning for a Leave win (she said some of the phrases Trump will use when the result comes in are already known, but she wouldn't tell me what they were), and that the probabilities doing the rounds in the embassy, in one or two other US agencies in London, and in NATO in Brussels, are 80-20 Leave-Remain. She further reports that British military figures she meets are in even less doubt.
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
Which is why Labour is whispering out of both sides of its mouth. Union paymasters want to Remain, many, many, many of their voters want to Leave.
The biggest miscalculation of this campaign will prove to be that Labour voters were overwhelmingly for Remain. 75:25 I've heard it said. It is going to be much closer to 50:50.
Cameron and Osborne relying on Labour to get them over the line? That's dumb planning. Then coupled with insulting your natural base as Little Englanders? Double dumb.
The Labour vote under Corbyn is largely public sector workers and ethnic minorities many white working class voters are voting UKIP now anyway even if Leave narrowly win less than 40% of Labour voters will have voted Leave
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
Which is why Labour is whispering out of both sides of its mouth. Union paymasters want to Remain, many, many, many of their voters want to Leave.
The biggest miscalculation of this campaign will prove to be that Labour voters were overwhelmingly for Remain. 75:25 I've heard it said. It is going to be much closer to 50:50.
Cameron and Osborne relying on Labour to get them over the line? That's dumb planning. Then coupled with insulting your natural base as Little Englanders? Double dumb.
Tories breaking 55/45 to Leave and Labour 60/40 to Remain gives a result of Leave 50.7% and Remain 49.3% on my spreadsheet.
In Sunderland Central - using 2015 election results.
So in Sunderland a 46.87% Remain, 53.13% Leave vote would suggest a win for Leave - and Remain have to lose 48 - 52 or less to have a chance. (assuming Uniform Party-referendum swings)
Are the results declared by constituency or are they aggregated into regions?
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
Whereas Tory Brexiteers whose sole aim is to destroy the most successful leader in decades are models of sanity?
My sister tells me after dining with a senior figure at the US embassy that the Trump camp already wields considerable influence there and that Trump and co are assuming Leave will win because, from their strange point of view, it's going to win with their help so how could it lose? She also says the embassy itself is planning for a Leave win and the probabilities doing the rounds there, in one or two other US agencies in London, and in NATO in Brussels, are 80-20 Leave-Remain. She further reports that British military figures she meets are in even less doubt.
A leave is a catastrophe for US interests, and for Britain's relationship with the US as a result, so that would appear to confirm the parallel universe surrealism of the people surrounding the Trump campaign.
Numbers are crucial in the referendum. Politicians do deals and they do deals within the boundaries of both what they are electorally liable to deliver, and what is politically possible.
65/35% to Leave means a clear, clean break and probably an ambitious strike out for full independence and a bespoke trade deal.
51/49% to Leave probably means a slow and steady disengagement, through the EEA, preserving full access to the single market.
51/49 to Remain puts our EU membership on probation "one last chance"
65/35 to Remain settles our EU membership for a generation
Sorry - but ANY Remain majority will be taken as 'overwhelming evidence that the UK fully supports the EU project' - witness Hollande's - resounding victory over Sarkozy - that was 51-49 IIRC.
Hollande did not win a resounding win and Le Pen now leads in France the tighter the Remain win the better UKIP will do
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
Yes she said that.
She had 1 minute to roundup why we should remain in the EU, this once in a lifetime decision, and she/Osborne/Cameron/PPE Spad thought that would be the best line to take.
Down in the gutter. I hope a large proportion of the Tory party won't forgive or forget that.
There's only two ways to interpret it:
1. Boris would drunken drive and risk your safety 2. Boris would attempt to grope you on the way home if you were drunk
Both are awful.
Morning. These personal attacks are getting ridiculous now, from a brief look at those remarks (not seen the whole thing yet) she said exactly that.
Good to see Dave drive the Home Counties NIMBYs towards leave this morning by saying Leave will scrap HS2 though. Can add that to wages rising and house prices falling, the metropolitan elite Remain mindset is completely lost on most of the country and is showing itself to them loud and clear.
For the first time I think that not only might Leave win, but it might even be decisive. As others have said, Dave will have to announce his resignation two weeks today - he's got no more bridges left to burn.
The issue over immigration in Labour's heartlands is often one of 'Fairness'. People feel that they are being undercut in the workplace, pushed down the list in public services.
At the same time, post Brexit, Freedom of Movement will not significantly alter, because we won;t leave the Single Market. So we will have to deal with the feeling that fairness has been lost somehow in the system.
So the only way to do this is by re addressing the role of the state, and especially the welfare state, in the life of the nation. An element of this will almost certainly be a realignment around a contributory system - so that welfare becomes a social insurance policy (as I think its founders envisaged).
Labour has a particular advantage here, because it can talk about welfare in a way that the Tories can't, and also has the most to gain in terms of re aligning its own core with the post Brexit settlement, especially Leave voters who have defected to UKIP in recent years.
A system with benefits received more based on NI contributions but still a basic minimum though Corbyn us unlikely to do it
Numbers are crucial in the referendum. Politicians do deals and they do deals within the boundaries of both what they are electorally liable to deliver, and what is politically possible.
65/35% to Leave means a clear, clean break and probably an ambitious strike out for full independence and a bespoke trade deal.
51/49% to Leave probably means a slow and steady disengagement, through the EEA, preserving full access to the single market.
51/49 to Remain puts our EU membership on probation "one last chance"
65/35 to Remain settles our EU membership for a generation
Sorry - but ANY Remain majority will be taken as 'overwhelming evidence that the UK fully supports the EU project' - witness Hollande's - resounding victory over Sarkozy - that was 51-49 IIRC.
Hollande did not win a resounding win and Le Pen now leads in France the tighter the Remain win the better UKIP will do
But his win was TRUMPETED as a massive win - that is my point.
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
Which is why Labour is whispering out of both sides of its mouth. Union paymasters want to Remain, many, many, many of their voters want to Leave.
The biggest miscalculation of this campaign will prove to be that Labour voters were overwhelmingly for Remain. 75:25 I've heard it said. It is going to be much closer to 50:50.
Cameron and Osborne relying on Labour to get them over the line? That's dumb planning. Then coupled with insulting your natural base as Little Englanders? Double dumb.
Have you seen this ? ttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0gHLfMXb0Yg Leave, real and passionate. Remain, plastic and privileged.
He's superb. And that Remain hipster was so airy-fairy "I'm a musician and comedian".
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
Whereas Tory Brexiteers whose sole aim is to destroy the most successful leader in decades are models of sanity?
Check your mote...
He hasn't needed any help from us to destroy himself.
Numbers are crucial in the referendum. Politicians do deals and they do deals within the boundaries of both what they are electorally liable to deliver, and what is politically possible.
65/35% to Leave means a clear, clean break and probably an ambitious strike out for full independence and a bespoke trade deal.
51/49% to Leave probably means a slow and steady disengagement, through the EEA, preserving full access to the single market.
51/49 to Remain puts our EU membership on probation "one last chance"
65/35 to Remain settles our EU membership for a generation
Sorry - but ANY Remain majority will be taken as 'overwhelming evidence that the UK fully supports the EU project' - witness Hollande's - resounding victory over Sarkozy - that was 51-49 IIRC.
Hollande did not win a resounding win and Le Pen now leads in France the tighter the Remain win the better UKIP will do
But his win was TRUMPETED as a massive win - that is my point.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
I've seen comments elsewhere from several men saying WTF? And a load of others who found Rudd 'scary'.
And tons referring to Team Remain as mean girls or Macbeth's three witches. Whatever the strategy - it's not winning many friends.
The views re Leadsom/Gisela seem universal. And that Boris was more measured than most of us would be after the torrent of abuse.
Initially in the media it was a bit "wow she hammered Boris" to change on reflection into a "surprising attack by a cabinet minister" and now a "Cameron/Osborne authorised the attack". REMAIN should be suffering a hang over after that.
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
We know what the personal attacks on Sadiq signified, and what result we got.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
Yes she said that.
She had 1 minute to roundup why we should remain in the EU, this once in a lifetime decision, and she/Osborne/Cameron/PPE Spad thought that would be the best line to take.
Down in the gutter. I hope a large proportion of the Tory party won't forgive or forget that.
There's only two ways to interpret it:
1. Boris would drunken drive and risk your safety 2. Boris would attempt to grope you on the way home if you were drunk
Both are awful.
Morning. These personal attacks are getting ridiculous now, from a brief look at those remarks (not seen the whole thing yet) she said exactly that.
Good to see Dave drive the Home Counties NIMBYs towards leave this morning by saying Leave will scrap HS2 though. Can add that to wages rising and house prices falling, the metropolitan elite Remain mindset is completely lost on most of the country and is showing itself to them loud and clear.
For the first time I think that not only might Leave win, but it might even be decisive. As others have said, Dave will have to announce his resignation two weeks today - he's got no more bridges left to burn.
What's also odd, is I'd heard that today was supposed to be Labour day, as in the Remain campaign would push Labour people forward and make sure they are seen. So why is Cameron doing Q&A in Yorks about HS2/3?
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
Whereas Tory Brexiteers whose sole aim is to destroy the most successful leader in decades are models of sanity?
Check your mote...
You mean voting Leave will prevent Cameron winning in the 2020 GE ?
Question for PB'ers: If Leave do actually win how long is it likely Dave will survive and how long before we get a new PM?
A new leader will be introduced to the Party Conference and the timetable for nominations, members' voting and the MPs' vote will be centred around that. No need for a temporary leader as the HoC breaks up for its annual 3 months holiday in about 4 weeks time.
Will the new leader be introduced to Conference (like Labour 2015) or would Conference be used to hold auditions for the new leader (like Tory 2005).
Having the vote after Conference in 2005 helped Cameron get the momentum to beat Davis. I imagine that's easier done in opposition than in government though.
My sister tells me after dining with a senior figure at the US embassy that the Trump camp already wields considerable influence there and that Trump and co are assuming Leave will win because, from their strange point of view, it's going to win with their help so how could it lose? She also says the embassy itself is planning for a Leave win and the probabilities doing the rounds there, in one or two other US agencies in London, and in NATO in Brussels, are 80-20 Leave-Remain. She further reports that British military figures she meets are in even less doubt.
A leave is a catastrophe for US interests, and for Britain's relationship with the US as a result, so that would appear to confirm the parallel universe surrealism of the people surrounding the Trump campaign.
In the real world, Trump has just won the Republican nomination with the greatest number of primary voters in US history. SurrealBritain would be a more accurate alias.
The issue over immigration in Labour's heartlands is often one of 'Fairness'. People feel that they are being undercut in the workplace, pushed down the list in public services.
At the same time, post Brexit, Freedom of Movement will not significantly alter, because we won;t leave the Single Market. So we will have to deal with the feeling that fairness has been lost somehow in the system.
So the only way to do this is by re addressing the role of the state, and especially the welfare state, in the life of the nation. An element of this will almost certainly be a realignment around a contributory system - so that welfare becomes a social insurance policy (as I think its founders envisaged).
Labour has a particular advantage here, because it can talk about welfare in a way that the Tories can't, and also has the most to gain in terms of re aligning its own core with the post Brexit settlement, especially Leave voters who have defected to UKIP in recent years.
A system with benefits received more based on NI contributions but still a basic minimum though Corbyn us unlikely to do it
After a Leave vote, I rather expect to see the Parliamentary Labour party shake itself down and reassert itself. Corbyn is unelectable, and 2020 will be all to play for if we Leave.
It's potentially a Clement Atlee moment - there will be an opportunity to create a political consensus around a new system that breaks across the political divide, simply because it unites enough of the middle ground thinkers.
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
Whereas Tory Brexiteers whose sole aim is to destroy the most successful leader in decades are models of sanity?
Check your mote...
He hasn't needed any help from us to destroy himself.
Dave had the choice to either stay on the sidelines, or to play with a straight bat with polite debate on the issues against mainly his own side. He decided to make it irrational and personal, which is why he's toast in two weeks' time.
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
Whereas Tory Brexiteers whose sole aim is to destroy the most successful leader in decades are models of sanity?
Check your mote...
That is not the sole aim, besides that leader has already announced his own retirement.
Remain/leave doesn't impact the US much at all - however for relations with the other EU countries it makes sense for the US to have looked like it was supportive of the Remain campaign - a fleabite on an elephant at worst.
Two work colleagues, both likely Remainers, commented on how negative Remain were in the debate highlights yesterday. They have done themselves no favours at all.
My sister tells me after dining with a senior figure at the US embassy that the Trump camp already wields considerable influence there and that Trump and co are assuming Leave will win because, from their strange point of view, it's going to win with their help so how could it lose? She also says the embassy itself is planning for a Leave win and the probabilities doing the rounds there, in one or two other US agencies in London, and in NATO in Brussels, are 80-20 Leave-Remain. She further reports that British military figures she meets are in even less doubt.
A leave is a catastrophe for US interests, and for Britain's relationship with the US as a result, so that would appear to confirm the parallel universe surrealism of the people surrounding the Trump campaign.
In the real world, Trump has just won the Republican nomination with the greatest number of primary voters in US history. SurrealBritain would be a more accurate alias.
That has no bearing on the consequences on the results of a Leave vote on a US-Britain relationship. A Britain outside the EU is of infinitely smaller interest to the United States diplomatic, military and financial establishment, and that would be reflected in official ties. In that respect Trump would actually be aiding the downgrading of a country he claims to feel a strong relationship with - all very odd.
Interesting Labour pitch on immigration the Leave camp have called for an Australian-style points-based system for migrants, and yet Australia has twice as many migrants per person than we do.
What’s more, the whole purpose of the Aussie system is to give businesses more control over who they bring into the country – which tends to be the cheapest workers – forcing down wages and doing absolutely nothing to address concerns about insecure employment.
So why does Australia give points for
- competence in the English language - post-secondary education - having a skilled occupation
?
Few of the Bulgarians working in British hotels, the Poles and Lithuanians doing labouring on British building sites, the Russians (those from Baltic states lucky enough to have EU passports) and Poles working in British agriculture, etc., would get many points under the Australian system. Most are without post-secondary education and don't have a skilled occupation. Probably the majority of Bulgarians here can't speak more than a handful of words of English. They'd be unlikely to get into Australia.
Labour are talking crap.
If they were concerned about wages being forced down by immigration, they would encourage the trade unions to recruit among immigrants and try to overturn the separation between native and immigrant workers which is what employers use to drive down wages. Failing that, control immigration.
The Tory Remainers seem to have lost the plot. This no longer seems to be about getting the people to vote to Remain, but for Cameron and Osborne is now solely about "STOP BORIS!". Losing their own self-respect doesn't seem to matter.
Whereas Tory Brexiteers whose sole aim is to destroy the most successful leader in decades are models of sanity?
Check your mote...
He hasn't needed any help from us to destroy himself.
Dave had the choice to either stay on the sidelines, or to play with a straight bat with polite debate on the issues against mainly his own side. He decided to make it irrational and personal, which is why he's toast in two weeks' time.
Had Dave taken a regal position and said he was focussing on running the country and would stay above the fray he could have retired in style with his reputation far higher.
He thought it was going to be an easy win - its a terrible miscalculation.
Two work colleagues, both likely Remainers, commented on how negative Remain were in the debate highlights yesterday. They have done themselves no favours at all.
Further Hearsay Couple of posters on CiF commenting that workplace colleagues have tended towards Leave over the campaign and agree with the above assesment.
As a remainer I unfortunately think Leave had a clear win last night. All three leave debaters were on good form. Boris was their best, I think he's engaging and makes it seem like a positive argument to vote for leave.
the Remain side were not up to scratch - Sturgeon was technically the best but she has to walk on too many egg-shells in this situation with english voters. Eagle was suprisingly awful, Rudd was fine but nothing special.
Leave's best debaters are Andrea Leadsom, Boris Johnson, and Daniel Hannan. They already have the Farageists onboard so no need to use him anymore. I've been distinctly underwhelmed by left wing brexiteers so far.
Remain's best debaters are Clegg (his credibility is shot but he's good in front of a camera), Cameron, and I'm struggling to think of a 3rd.
I'd love to see Ruth Davidson in one of these national debates - I think she would be a great Remain asset (I'm not a tory in case it looks like bias!).
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
She really said that?
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
Yes she said that.
She had 1 minute to roundup why we should remain in the EU, this once in a lifetime decision, and she/Osborne/Cameron/PPE Spad thought that would be the best line to take.
Down in the gutter. I hope a large proportion of the Tory party won't forgive or forget that.
There's only two ways to interpret it:
1. Boris would drunken drive and risk your safety 2. Boris would attempt to grope you on the way home if you were drunk
Both are awful.
Morning. These personal attacks are getting ridiculous now, from a brief look at those remarks (not seen the whole thing yet) she said exactly that.
Good to see Dave drive the Home Counties NIMBYs towards leave this morning by saying Leave will scrap HS2 though. Can add that to wages rising and house prices falling, the metropolitan elite Remain mindset is completely lost on most of the country and is showing itself to them loud and clear.
For the first time I think that not only might Leave win, but it might even be decisive. As others have said, Dave will have to announce his resignation two weeks today - he's got no more bridges left to burn.
What's also odd, is I'd heard that today was supposed to be Labour day, as in the Remain campaign would push Labour people forward and make sure they are seen. So why is Cameron doing Q&A in Yorks about HS2/3?
Today was meant to be Labour's day. The only one I've seen is John Mann making an excellent case for Leave.
He really impressed me, and I usually find him a bit OTT. He was straight-talking, no weasel words or dancing round the issues.
I've not heard another Labour MP express so forcefully what their voters are really saying/feeling.
Only saw snippets of the debate. Didn't see Rudd's comments until now.
They're bloody disgraceful.
In the snippets I saw, Leadsom and Sturgeon seemed most assured (although the latter may have issues about being for the EU and against the UK). Rudd was a hectoring harpy.
Comments
At the same time, post Brexit, Freedom of Movement will not significantly alter, because we won;t leave the Single Market. So we will have to deal with the feeling that fairness has been lost somehow in the system.
So the only way to do this is by re addressing the role of the state, and especially the welfare state, in the life of the nation. An element of this will almost certainly be a realignment around a contributory system - so that welfare becomes a social insurance policy (as I think its founders envisaged).
Labour has a particular advantage here, because it can talk about welfare in a way that the Tories can't, and also has the most to gain in terms of re aligning its own core with the post Brexit settlement, especially Leave voters who have defected to UKIP in recent years.
I think it is a measure of the failure of the Remain campaign to offer any positive purpose to being in the EU that this referendum feels to be moving inexorably towards answering a question not directly on the ballot paper, namely "Who do you want to control our borders, Britain or Brussels?" That only has one outcome.
The best thing about a Brexit vote will be that it will finally require a grown up discussion about what we as a country want. An economy where growth is dependent upon 300,000 a year migration? Or an economy that maybe does not grow as fast, but allows a far better planned structure to our needs for housing, for health, for education? For too long ALL parties of government have assumed the British people were too immature to have this discussion, instead just bouncing them into ever higher immigration without debate. The message of this Referendum will be that has to stop. We need to talk...
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/
The EFTA Court opines on matters between EFTA states.
And tons referring to Team Remain as mean girls or Macbeth's three witches. Whatever the strategy - it's not winning many friends.
The views re Leadsom/Gisela seem universal. And that Boris was more measured than most of us would be after the torrent of abuse.
But...but...but....Maggie would have been for Remain, surely? We keep being told it on here...
This one above is rubbish because people don't seem to mind seeing the decision as a bit of an economic gamble if it brings back control.
Yes Scott, you might say that people consider it a price worth paying.
EFTA infringement procedures are fairly similar to the mechanisms for monitoring compliance in EU member states but the EFTA Court does not have the same authority as the EU’s Court of Justice to issue binding decisions, only recommendations and advisory opinions."
REMAIN should be suffering a hang over after that.
Was she implying that Boris would attack you after a drink/party?
the Leave camp have called for an Australian-style points-based system for migrants, and yet Australia has twice as many migrants per person than we do.
What’s more, the whole purpose of the Aussie system is to give businesses more control over who they bring into the country – which tends to be the cheapest workers – forcing down wages and doing absolutely nothing to address concerns about insecure employment.
Read more: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/jo-cox-brexit-is-no-answer-to-real-concerns-on-immigration-1-7956822#ixzz4BAI4kFPA
More precisely the EFTA Court applies the EEA legislation, which is a subset of the full EU legislation, in the non EU countries - in the same way as the ECJ applies the full EU law in its jurisdiction. In principle there should be no difference in their judgments.
65/35% to Leave means a clear, clean break and probably an ambitious strike out for full independence and a bespoke trade deal.
51/49% to Leave probably means a slow and steady disengagement, through the EEA, preserving full access to the single market.
51/49 to Remain puts our EU membership on probation "one last chance"
65/35 to Remain settles our EU membership for a generation
Cameron is very classy and doesn't appear to have the office-clingery of a Brown, so I suspect he would be very statesmanlike, make it clear that the British public have made an historic decision and although he fully respects that decision it would be presumptuous of him to remain as PM having campaigned against it.
The Tories tend to be more businesslike than Labour and far less visceral so there'd be less hard feelings. Therefore I suspect many of the mainstream Brexit Tories would want Cameron to stick around in some capacity. He's undeniably an electoral asset and the most impressive operator of all the big political beasts.
But this is all just opinion. I know nothing really.
The biggest miscalculation of this campaign will prove to be that Labour voters were overwhelmingly for Remain. 75:25 I've heard it said. It is going to be much closer to 50:50.
Cameron and Osborne relying on Labour to get them over the line? That's dumb planning. Then coupled with insulting your natural base as Little Englanders? Double dumb.
Remainers may also prefer Jezza to be leading the negotiations.
My concerns about immigration (jokes about parochial racist xenophobes aside) relate to the sustained volume combined with our terrible planning laws and lack of infrastructure investment.
The EU can't be the sole bogeyman for the immigration; May has failed to control non-EU immigration, which should be well within her remit (last year's figures for net migration 184k EU, 188k non-EU).
I agree with your overall point; we need to have a sensible discussion about immigration without the usual virtue signalling wankers screaming 'waaaaacist' every five freaking minutes.
these 4 Boris, Andrea, Raab and Fox.
Pritti - has been iffy and got little praise,
Villiers, Grayling, Whittingdale, Paterson (who) = No
Remain can win this in a simple statement. "Vote Remain or the price of your cigs and beer will go up a lot." - Panem et circences
Off topic - do other people have a problem of the insertion point jumping to different places in your comment as you type?
But when this is all over everyone is going to come back together, hold hands and start singing kumbaya...
http://www.itv.com/hub/eu-referendum/2a4566a0002
I'll have to watch this tonight.
lol
Wrong, but EFTA court tends to follow ECJ judgements on matters of trade - it is not compelled.
More precisely the EFTA Court applies the EEA legislation, which is a subset of the full EU legislation, in the non EU countries - in the same way as the ECJ applies the full EU law in its jurisdiction. In principle there should be no difference in their judgments.
Thank you. Much, much clearer. I think in my clumsy and non-technical way, I was trying to say that (
She had 1 minute to roundup why we should remain in the EU, this once in a lifetime decision, and she/Osborne/Cameron/PPE Spad thought that would be the best line to take.
Down in the gutter. I hope a large proportion of the Tory party won't forgive or forget that.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0gHLfMXb0Yg
Leave, real and passionate.
Remain, plastic and privileged.
Take back control Scotty.
There are at least 1m non-Commonwealth/UK or Irish residents in London.
1. Boris would drunken drive and risk your safety
2. Boris would attempt to grope you on the way home if you were drunk
Both are awful.
3. Boris is fun at the party but as he's been drinking you should get a taxi.
labour 50.3 : gives 30.18 : 20.12
Conser 23.4: gives 10.53 : 12.87
UKIP 19.1% : gives 0.96 : 18.14
Green 4.1 : gives 3.00 : 1.1%
LibDems 2.6: gives 2.20 : 0.4%
So in Sunderland a 46.87% Remain, 53.13% Leave vote would suggest a win for Leave - and Remain have to lose 48 - 52 or less to have a chance. (assuming Uniform Party-referendum swings)
Are the results declared by constituency or are they aggregated into regions?
Check your mote...
Good to see Dave drive the Home Counties NIMBYs towards leave this morning by saying Leave will scrap HS2 though. Can add that to wages rising and house prices falling, the metropolitan elite Remain mindset is completely lost on most of the country and is showing itself to them loud and clear.
For the first time I think that not only might Leave win, but it might even be decisive. As others have said, Dave will have to announce his resignation two weeks today - he's got no more bridges left to burn.
Sir Ian McKellen speaks for the whole gay community
Breaking news if true..
Having the vote after Conference in 2005 helped Cameron get the momentum to beat Davis. I imagine that's easier done in opposition than in government though.
SurrealBritain would be a more accurate alias.
It's potentially a Clement Atlee moment - there will be an opportunity to create a political consensus around a new system that breaks across the political divide, simply because it unites enough of the middle ground thinkers.
So check your facts ...
OK.
Two work colleagues, both likely Remainers, commented on how negative Remain were in the debate highlights yesterday. They have done themselves no favours at all.
- competence in the English language
- post-secondary education
- having a skilled occupation
?
Few of the Bulgarians working in British hotels, the Poles and Lithuanians doing labouring on British building sites, the Russians (those from Baltic states lucky enough to have EU passports) and Poles working in British agriculture, etc., would get many points under the Australian system. Most are without post-secondary education and don't have a skilled occupation. Probably the majority of Bulgarians here can't speak more than a handful of words of English. They'd be unlikely to get into Australia.
Labour are talking crap.
If they were concerned about wages being forced down by immigration, they would encourage the trade unions to recruit among immigrants and try to overturn the separation between native and immigrant workers which is what employers use to drive down wages. Failing that, control immigration.
He thought it was going to be an easy win - its a terrible miscalculation.
When is "Le Vow" coming out ?
Further Hearsay
Couple of posters on CiF commenting that workplace colleagues have tended towards Leave over the campaign and agree with the above assesment.
the Remain side were not up to scratch - Sturgeon was technically the best but she has to walk on too many egg-shells in this situation with english voters. Eagle was suprisingly awful, Rudd was fine but nothing special.
Leave's best debaters are Andrea Leadsom, Boris Johnson, and Daniel Hannan. They already have the Farageists onboard so no need to use him anymore. I've been distinctly underwhelmed by left wing brexiteers so far.
Remain's best debaters are Clegg (his credibility is shot but he's good in front of a camera), Cameron, and I'm struggling to think of a 3rd.
I'd love to see Ruth Davidson in one of these national debates - I think she would be a great Remain asset (I'm not a tory in case it looks like bias!).
He really impressed me, and I usually find him a bit OTT. He was straight-talking, no weasel words or dancing round the issues.
I've not heard another Labour MP express so forcefully what their voters are really saying/feeling.
Only saw snippets of the debate. Didn't see Rudd's comments until now.
They're bloody disgraceful.
In the snippets I saw, Leadsom and Sturgeon seemed most assured (although the latter may have issues about being for the EU and against the UK). Rudd was a hectoring harpy.