Did I watch the same programme? Leadsom was terrible IMHO. Amber Rudd completely outshone anyone else.
Agreed.Her take down of Boris Johnson was terrific.Amber Rudd is a far better option.
You are not the target audience, you are going to vote remain anyway. I am not sure the fence sitters will have see it as anything other than a cheap shot, especially since Boris managed to stay cool and just brush it off in that "there you go again" sort of way.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Paris): Northern Ireland v Germany – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
One has to wonder if having referendum has been scheduled in the middle of Euro 2016 in the hope that the WWC will be distracted.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
No. You are starting the revisionism early this morning Dr Fox.
The reason she lost power was because she saw the light on the EC and so was deposed by the Eurofanatics. Conflating that with her dementia which happened much later in life is particularly sordid but no more than I would expect from a Remainder like yourself.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Paris): Northern Ireland v Germany – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
One has to wonder if having the referendum in the middle of Euro 2016 is a deliberate tactic to distract the WWC.
Something went wrong if it was, there are no matches on the day votes are cast, and the student vote is going to be away at Glastonbury or backpacking around the world.
Another interesting result, in a way, is Gipsy Hill. From 19994-2010, this was a fairly safe Conservative seat. Yet now, the Conservative vote has just vanished.
I take it you dont mean the Gipsy Hill near Crystal Palace?
If it really became a "fairly safe Conservative seat" in 1994, there must have been some interesting local factors in play, since (to put it mildly) that doesn't really fit in with what was generally happening in British politics at the time.
It was won by the Conservatives in 1978, 1982, split in 1986, and won by Labour in 1990, then won by the Conservatives in 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006. The Conservative typically polled 1,500-2,000 votes. According to David Boothroyd, Labour under performed here due to Lambeth Council's bad reputation, but even so, it's a massive fall in support.
I suspect the demographic changes in that part of London will also have played a part.
Just watching the highlights. It's frightening to think Labour's leadership is so bad that some people think this rude, arrogant, hectoring and not very bright woman Angela Eagle would be better.
Not my preferred choice either, but being rude, arrogant, hectoring or not very bright are not bars to political advancement.
My opinion on the polling on this is that the difficulties in getting accurate samples and forecasting the demographics and geography of turnout very dubious indeed. RodCrosby has said more or less the same, and Jacks ARSE is sorely missed.
With online panels packed with activists from all sides, and the response rate on phone polls apparently less than 1% in many cases, I would be surprised if the polls were even close. Might as well pin the tail on the donkey.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Paris): Northern Ireland v Germany – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
One has to wonder if having the referendum in the middle of Euro 2016 is a deliberate tactic to distract the WWC.
Something went wrong if it was, there are no matches on the day votes are cast, and the student vote is going to be away at Glastonbury or backpacking around the world.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Paris): Northern Ireland v Germany – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
No big games clashing then. Unless Spain are improbably in trouble going into the last games.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
Having campaigned on significantly cutting immigration Leave has to deliver that. EEA/EFTA - an option I could happily live with - is off the table for that reason. If not, millions of Leave voters will, rightly, feel utterly betrayed.
I'm totally perplexed by what Team Remain were doing. Or what result they were after. It certainly didn't seem to be establishing a case for Stay In. It was mostly, nobble Boris.
@FaisalIslam: striking thing from debate was Remain strategIES. Aimed at 3 totally different markets - turnout Scots vote, direct Labour appeal, get Boris
I know what Remain were trying to do, but it didn't work..
Since you are neither a Scot nor a Labour voter, and are charitably forgiving of Boris, I'm not sure you were the target!
Did I watch the same programme? Leadsom was terrible IMHO. Amber Rudd completely outshone anyone else.
They were both very good in different ways
Rudd was a bit hectoring but impressively abreast of the facts.
What was so striking about Leadsom was how succinct and clear she was. She never rambled; everything she said was crystal clear and pointed. Very reminiscent of Thatcher.
Like I said last night, whether you disagree with everything she said or not isn't the point, if you have somebody who can communicate very succinctly (voters likd a clear contrast of black and white) they have the makings of a leader.
With Corbyn being that most lukewarm of EU supporters, and facing the prospect of pissing off at least 30% of his vote with a strong remain message (when they are already not that enamoured of him) I can't see Labour collectively doing any more than paying lip service to this over the next couple of weeks.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Paris): Northern Ireland v Germany – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
No big games clashing then. Unless Spain are improbably in trouble going into the last games.
Even so, a lot of voters will be more interested in watching the Germany match followed by the Spain match, rather than listening to politicians bang on about the EU like they have been for the past three months.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
No. You are starting the revisionism early this morning Dr Fox.
The reason she lost power was because she saw the light on the EC and so was deposed by the Eurofanatics. Conflating that with her dementia which happened much later in life is particularly sordid but no more than I would expect from a Remainder like yourself.
Whatever you do, Richard, never ever respect your political opponents
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
No. You are starting the revisionism early this morning Dr Fox.
The reason she lost power was because she saw the light on the EC and so was deposed by the Eurofanatics. Conflating that with her dementia which happened much later in life is particularly sordid but no more than I would expect from a Remainder like yourself.
She pushed through the single European Act in the late eighties, well towards the end of her premiership.
I don't think that she had dementia while in office, that came later, but she certainly had lost her political acumen by the 1989. Europe was part of it but the reason that her party deposed her and so much of the nation cheered when she did is that she was a spent force by 1990.
As I pointed out, the curse of female Tory Leadership candidates is to be measured against her. I disliked her politics but in her prime she was a very capable politician. She just didn't know when to quit. Third terms are pretty toxic to PMs, Dave Cameron is right not to attempt it.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
Having campaigned on significantly cutting immigration Leave has to deliver that. EEA/EFTA - an option I could happily live with - is off the table for that reason. If not, millions of Leave voters will, rightly, feel utterly betrayed.
It will come down to presentation and fudge as ever I imagine. It would be presented as EEA/EFTA + EFTA emergency brake being immediately pulled, then letting things settle down and vote for whatever you want to follow according to the manifestos of the parties in 2020, because now you are "in control".... or some such bollocks
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
Having campaigned on significantly cutting immigration Leave has to deliver that. EEA/EFTA - an option I could happily live with - is off the table for that reason. If not, millions of Leave voters will, rightly, feel utterly betrayed.
And they'll have their chance to show that displeasure at the ballot box. Some people on here are behaving as though this is the end of democracy.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
I caught a little of PMQs, I was staggered by one remark of Cameron's -. the increased war threat if we leave. In the 1950s, the idea of a trading bloc leading to a political union was an interesting one. NATO was new, the Russians were a monolithic bloc, the US were pulling back from Europe (Suez happened), who knew what lay around the corner? A united Europe had its attractions.
But the earth rotated, the world changed. NATO is a fact of life. The wars in Europe were due to the breakup of the USSR. In Yugoslavia, it was NATO airpower that stopped it eventually. I didn't notice the Juncker Blitzkrieg at all.
If we leave, which EU country are we likely to invade? They are virtually all NATO members. Perhaps Denmark will invade us? They used to, but since we've joined the EU, they've retreated. Ah ... I've got one ... Iceland! The Cod wars! Is that what he meant?
The more I thought about it, the more juvenile it became. Yes, politics is a game of slogans not of facts. But like playground games, it shouldn't be taken seriously.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
Having campaigned on significantly cutting immigration Leave has to deliver that. EEA/EFTA - an option I could happily live with - is off the table for that reason. If not, millions of Leave voters will, rightly, feel utterly betrayed.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't form a government if they win, and hence they won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Did I watch the same programme? Leadsom was terrible IMHO. Amber Rudd completely outshone anyone else.
They were both very good in different ways
Rudd was a bit hectoring but impressively abreast of the facts.
What was so striking about Leadsom was how succinct and clear she was. She never rambled; everything she said was crystal clear and pointed. Very reminiscent of Thatcher.
Like I said last night, whether you disagree with everything she said or not isn't the point, if you have somebody who can communicate very succinctly (voters likd a clear contrast of black and white) they have the makings of a leader.
Crisp delivery - but still with warmth. I wouldn't be scared of her, but I wouldn't try to kid her either. She reminded me of the head of a very successful school. Rudd rather scared me by the end - too bossy and cold. The Dominatrix joke was rather close to the knuckle.
I never liked Thatcher, too detached for me. I did vote for her as Get Things Done leader.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Paris): Northern Ireland v Germany – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
No big games clashing then. Unless Spain are improbably in trouble going into the last games.
I would still expect the audience for the football to comfortably exceed the audience for the debate. Hell, I'm a political junkie, and I'm certainly no football fan, and I'll be watching the football.
The debate does not appear to have had any effect on the markets (although see Faisal Islam on Twitter right now for discussions on what that means and how accurate they might be), and we haven't had polling, but I think it pretty clear Leave "won" the debate, in the same way that Alex Salmond won against Alistair darling and Nigel Farage won against Nick Clegg
In essence, the snake oil salesmen have the easier sell, and blatant lies don't worry them.
Want more money? Sure, you can have that.
Shorter hospital queues? You got it.
Of course behind the shiny spin lies the black heart of the Leave campaign, "All the bad things in your life are the fault of immigrants"
Want more money? We'll stop immigrants from coming here and claiming your benefits.
Shorter hospital queues? We'll stop immigrants using your hospitals.
It would be sad, sad day for our country if this message wins, and it is not at all clear who might successfully pick up the pieces afterwards.
Boris ought to be a busted flush. If Andrea Leadsom became PM in a Brexit World, I would vote Labour.
Good summary Scott, I find it amazing that ~45-55% of voters are prepared to say a hail mary and vote for a future which has only been sketched out for them in the vaguest detail. It's unbelievable - And says much about how unimportant manifestos must be. Amber Rudd was right to highlight unicorns and rainbows, as that's how Brexit has been presented. This is a decision with direct implications on thousands of lives, not least mine, and If we leave the people who have sold this are going to have to deliver tangible benefit for the Cs Ds and Es to whom they have sold their unicorns and rainbows. Or else there will be trouble ahead.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
Having campaigned on significantly cutting immigration Leave has to deliver that. EEA/EFTA - an option I could happily live with - is off the table for that reason. If not, millions of Leave voters will, rightly, feel utterly betrayed.
While EEA/ EFTA require free movement of (migrant) labour - does that labour need to receive the in work tax credits non-migrants receive...
Question. What do people think the odds are of Britain joining the EEA following a Leave vote?
I think over 50%.
The implications for immigration levels are that a Leave vote wouldn't result in any change in immigration. I don't think a non-freedom of movement arrangement wwit the. EU ould see a very big drop in immigration either because high immigration is a facet of an open economy in a globalised world. This in turn makes the EEA option more likely IMO.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
The ECJ is there to enforce political union... Which is, of course, why the "renegotiation" was meaningless.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
Having campaigned on significantly cutting immigration Leave has to deliver that. EEA/EFTA - an option I could happily live with - is off the table for that reason. If not, millions of Leave voters will, rightly, feel utterly betrayed.
It will come down to presentation and fudge as ever I imagine. It would be presented as EEA/EFTA + EFTA emergency brake being immediately pulled, then letting things settle down and vote for whatever you want to follow according to the manifestos of the parties in 2020, because now you are "in control".... or some such bollocks
That's exactly right. Gove/Boris will immediately pull the brake, ask to be judged at GE2020, where they will hope for a demonstrable cut in numbers, and continue to work to lower it further in the long term.
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
On topic, the question is whether Leadsom will be in a position to stand. She is nowhere near being a heavyweight and would need much more momentum behind a candidacy than she currently has. If there's a leadership election in July, I simply don't see how her colleagues will consider her to have the seniority necessary to become PM. On the other hand, she is now reasonably positioned for a contest in 2018/19 but she'll need to join the cabinet in the reshuffle. 33/1 are good odds for someone who looks to have the skills necessary and who could come through in much the way that Major did in 1987-90.
Another angle is that as well as promoting a Brexiter, Cameron would be promoting a woman, which would offer an opportunity to dump an underperforming women cabinet minister without too much washback from gender equality types.
I agree. I think she is about ready to be Cheif Secretary to the Treasury, with a view to considering her for Chancellor in a couple of years time, possibly as a pre-election reshuffle for that fresh new look premiers (except Dave) seem to want before going to the country. For betters the question is does CSotT could as a Ministry position, I would suggest yes since it attends cabinet.
CsofT is a full Cabinet position, not just in attendence
The debate does not appear to have had any effect on the markets (although see Faisal Islam on Twitter right now for discussions on what that means and how accurate they might be), and we haven't had polling, but I think it pretty clear Leave "won" the debate, in the same way that Alex Salmond won against Alistair darling and Nigel Farage won against Nick Clegg
In essence, the snake oil salesmen have the easier sell, and blatant lies don't worry them.
Want more money? Sure, you can have that.
Shorter hospital queues? You got it.
Of course behind the shiny spin lies the black heart of the Leave campaign, "All the bad things in your life are the fault of immigrants"
Want more money? We'll stop immigrants from coming here and claiming your benefits.
Shorter hospital queues? We'll stop immigrants using your hospitals.
It would be sad, sad day for our country if this message wins, and it is not at all clear who might successfully pick up the pieces afterwards.
Boris ought to be a busted flush. If Andrea Leadsom became PM in a Brexit World, I would vote Labour.
Good summary Scott, I find it amazing that ~45-55% of voters are prepared to say a hail mary and vote for a future which has only been sketched out for them in the vaguest detail. It's unbelievable - And says much about how unimportant manifestos must be. Amber Rudd was right to highlight unicorns and rainbows, as that's how Brexit has been presented. This is a decision with direct implications on thousands of lives, not least mine, and If we leave the people who have sold this are going to have to deliver tangible benefit for the Cs Ds and Es to whom they have sold their unicorns and rainbows. Or else there will be trouble ahead.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't form a government if they win, and hence they won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Didn't watch the debate, but from what I've read here I assumed that Andrea Leadsom was the star. Just read The Times and both the debate summary and the political sketch give it very comfortably to Amber Rudd. I know The Times is leaning to Remain, but they usually give a balanced assessment of debate performances.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Paris): Northern Ireland v Germany – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
No big games clashing then. Unless Spain are improbably in trouble going into the last games.
Might depress NI vote a bit....which is good for Leave.
On topic, the question is whether Leadsom will be in a position to stand. She is nowhere near being a heavyweight and would need much more momentum behind a candidacy than she currently has. If there's a leadership election in July, I simply don't see how her colleagues will consider her to have the seniority necessary to become PM. On the other hand, she is now reasonably positioned for a contest in 2018/19 but she'll need to join the cabinet in the reshuffle. 33/1 are good odds for someone who looks to have the skills necessary and who could come through in much the way that Major did in 1987-90.
Another angle is that as well as promoting a Brexiter, Cameron would be promoting a woman, which would offer an opportunity to dump an underperforming women cabinet minister without too much washback from gender equality types.
I agree. I think she is about ready to be Cheif Secretary to the Treasury, with a view to considering her for Chancellor in a couple of years time, possibly as a pre-election reshuffle for that fresh new look premiers (except Dave) seem to want before going to the country. For betters the question is does CSotT could as a Ministry position, I would suggest yes since it attends cabinet.
CsofT is a full Cabinet position, not just in attendence
99% true, but curiously Greg Hands is not a full Cabinet member.
The debate does not appear to have had any effect on the markets (although see Faisal Islam on Twitter right now for discussions on what that means and how accurate they might be), and we haven't had polling, but I think it pretty clear Leave "won" the debate, in the same way that Alex Salmond won against Alistair darling and Nigel Farage won against Nick Clegg
In essence, the snake oil salesmen have the easier sell, and blatant lies don't worry them.
Want more money? Sure, you can have that.
Shorter hospital queues? You got it.
Of course behind the shiny spin lies the black heart of the Leave campaign, "All the bad things in your life are the fault of immigrants"
Want more money? We'll stop immigrants from coming here and claiming your benefits.
Shorter hospital queues? We'll stop immigrants using your hospitals.
It would be sad, sad day for our country if this message wins, and it is not at all clear who might successfully pick up the pieces afterwards.
Boris ought to be a busted flush. If Andrea Leadsom became PM in a Brexit World, I would vote Labour.
Good summary Scott, I find it amazing that ~45-55% of voters are prepared to say a hail mary and vote for a future which has only been sketched out for them in the vaguest detail. It's unbelievable - And says much about how unimportant manifestos must be. Amber Rudd was right to highlight unicorns and rainbows, as that's how Brexit has been presented. This is a decision with direct implications on thousands of lives, not least mine, and If we leave the people who have sold this are going to have to deliver tangible benefit for the Cs Ds and Es to whom they have sold their unicorns and rainbows. Or else there will be trouble ahead.
The Left in Britain used to believe in planning. When I was a child in the 70s, I remember Labour leaders emphasising that Labour stood for a planned economy rather than the free-for-all of market capitalism.
To plan anything (like provision of education or number of homes or number of doctor surgeries), you need to have an idea of the population in an area over the next 5 to 10 years.
For me, the standout was Gisela Stuart, who emphasised this point and its impact on public services.
I am for immigration (and have benefitted from it enormously in my professional life), but the immigration has to be planned, otherwise absolute chaos is going to result.
The Left used to believe in planning ... what on earth happened to the Left during my life, I sometimes wonder.
This may have already been covered overnight, but John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out for Brexit.
Jim Pickard said John Cryer has come out too - not seen another mention of it though.
Mann:
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
I've read several reports of Remain Labour MPs simply not canvassing/even in their own seat as they don't want to be hurt by the Leave vote backlash.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Channel 4 news' trip to West Bromwich yesterday was a good example. 9 out of 10 people on the street had no idea that Labour was for Remain. Most were going to vote Leave. They visited one small manufacturing factory where only one worker was Remain.
Very coherent, compelling and persuasive piece by John Mann on Today about immigration - the UK needing to plan infrastructure and that can only happen if we are in control of the numbers. Of course nothing about non-EU immigration but so what.
It was only John Humphries' experience and ability that managed to pivot him onto (local) democracy, where it all got bogged down.
I can see many people swayed by the argument. If Leave wins, as we have all agreed on here it's going to be nothing to do with any nebulous sovereignty bollocks, it's going to be immigration wot wins it.
Good summary Scott, I find it amazing that ~45-55% of voters are prepared to say a hail mary and vote for a future which has only been sketched out for them in the vaguest detail. [snip]
I started with this bit assuming you were arguing for LEAVE. In all honesty, this argument could apply equally well to either side of the argument.
Good summary Scott, I find it amazing that ~45-55% of voters are prepared to say a hail mary and vote for a future which has only been sketched out for them in the vaguest detail. [snip]
I started with this bit assuming you were arguing for LEAVE. In all honesty, this argument could apply equally well to either side of the argument.
It's not quite a mirror image - what Remain means is clearly laid out in treaties and Brussels' behaviour. But the BSE campaign won't admit it.
"The Left used to believe in planning ... what on earth happened to the Left during my life, I sometimes wonder."
It became "progressive."
You're right, it was always central planning vs the unfettered dog-eat-dog capitalist dogma.
The" intellectuals" used to pay attention to the views of their voters, but now the voters are a nuisance unless they agree with their own progressive views.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
If the UK votes Leave expecting a significant drop in immigration, and we go EEA/EFTA, assuming we can, then the emergency brake can only be triggered in exceptional circumstances. Unemployment of 5.1% and the highest employment for nearly 50 years ain't exceptional. Or rather, it is but not in the way that supports using the emergency brake.
If you argue that the sheer volume of immigration should support the emergency brake, then it will be pointed out that with the corresponding sheer volume of visitors to the UK, and no entry/exit ledger, it would be virtually impossible to implement.
And then people say we can vote out the government if, after leaving the EU they re-enter it through EEA/EFTA, but as I have pointed out previously, what would the alternative then be? Lab? Cons? UKIP? The first two of these are, generally pro-EU, pro-immigration (or at least a majority in parliament would be) so the electorate would effectively have been disenfranchised.
I am very wary of all these tales of huge numbers of postal votes for Leave and excellent canvassing returns. It reminds me of UKIP in Oldham.
Exactly what's been springing to my mind. Not just the postal votes; the general belief that LEAVE might just win. I'm a leaver, but I can't help feeling we're getting a bit over excited. I think the betfair odds are still about right.
"The Left used to believe in planning ... what on earth happened to the Left during my life, I sometimes wonder."
It became "progressive."
You're right, it was always central planning vs the unfettered dog-eat-dog capitalist dogma.
The" intellectuals" used to pay attention to the views of their voters, but now the voters are a nuisance unless they agree with their own progressive views.
And yet it was the Tories who moved power away from local Councils to the centre.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
Only on Single Market related matters, I know this comes as a shock but there are other aspects of our relationship with the EU (ie. most of them) which are not trade related, and for most Leaver those are the damn problem!
Articles 112-3 of the EEA agreement allow parties to unilaterally take “appropriate measures” if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties are liable to persist. I think a leave vote could be considered a societal difficulty with immigration in this context!
Folks, whichever side of the fence you are, it's knife-edge close!
I wonder if that is right.
The polls are close, but their measuring instruments are broken. The gap between Yes and No in the Sindy was 10 per cent, and the pollsters could not measure it accurately.
In such circs, the pollsters know that the best place to be is a statistical dead heat with both sides equal within the margin of error.
The mood music from the camps is certainly that Remain are finding it heavy going.
But, No found it heavy going in Scotland and still won reasonably comfortably in the end.
@LadPolitics: Punters seemed to like Amber Rudd's performance last night. She leapfrogs her boss into 20/1 to be next Tory leader. https://t.co/VhvXwDsLV9
Folks, whichever side of the fence you are, it's knife-edge close!
I wonder if that is right.
The polls are close, but their measuring instruments are broken. The gap between Yes and No in the Sindy was 10 per cent, and the pollsters could not measure it accurately.
In such circs, the pollsters know that the best place to be is a statistical dead heat with both sides equal within the margin of error.
The mood music from the camps is certainly that Remain are finding it heavy going.
But, No found it heavy going in Scotland and still won reasonably comfortably in the end.
Phil Collins summarises the position well in The Times today But leave is, by definition, a negative. It is predicated on the horrors of the status quo. On the pleasures of what may come after, the Leave campaign has nothing coherent to say
the Vote Leave poster on Turkey was the most blatant, desperate lie that I can recall in British politics. Shame on everyone involved.
The line leading to the status quo runs through the economy; the line leading to Brexit heads straight through immigration.
If Britain did leave the EU and Boris Johnson had to spend years renegotiating back everything he had just willingly lost, the free market leavers will wonder what they were thinking. The sovereignty-fetishists will note that every alliance — trade, defence, whatever — is a pooling of sovereignty. The immigration obsessives will complain about a points system that lets too many in, because that is what they always think.
One has to wonder if having referendum has been scheduled in the middle of Euro 2016 in the hope that the WWC will be distracted.
The timing of the referendum in the middle Euro 2016 could well prove disastrous for remain. England could qualify well out of their group leading to the usual mass national hysteria that they'll win this time. The increase in nationalistic fervour will play right into a leave vote. The knockout stages where they lose to the first decent team they play are after the vote.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a "Rooney says leave " front page of sun if England do well.
I caught a little of PMQs, I was staggered by one remark of Cameron's -. the increased war threat if we leave. In the 1950s, the idea of a trading bloc leading to a political union was an interesting one. NATO was new, the Russians were a monolithic bloc, the US were pulling back from Europe (Suez happened), who knew what lay around the corner? A united Europe had its attractions.
But the earth rotated, the world changed. NATO is a fact of life. The wars in Europe were due to the breakup of the USSR. In Yugoslavia, it was NATO airpower that stopped it eventually. I didn't notice the Juncker Blitzkrieg at all.
If we leave, which EU country are we likely to invade? They are virtually all NATO members. Perhaps Denmark will invade us? They used to, but since we've joined the EU, they've retreated. Ah ... I've got one ... Iceland! The Cod wars! Is that what he meant?
The more I thought about it, the more juvenile it became. Yes, politics is a game of slogans not of facts. But like playground games, it shouldn't be taken seriously.
We are not likely to invade anyone in Europe. More likely would be conflict in the Balkans but not because we left the EU!
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum and there is no certainty which way Maggie would have voted given the current set of circumstances in the EU. I, personally, think she would have been strongly for Leave but it's an opinion. Stating that Maggie was for Remain needs to be called out.
She campaigned strongly for In when she was Conservative Party Leader, and forced through the Single Market.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
We're not in political union and will have far less clout on our own. But I take it you too have accepted that free movement will effectively have to stay.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
Only on Single Market related matters, I know this comes as a shock but there are other aspects of our relationship with the EU (ie. most of them) which are not trade related, and for most Leaver those are the damn problem!
Articles 112-3 of the EEA agreement allow parties to unilaterally take “appropriate measures” if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties are liable to persist. I think a leave vote could be considered a societal difficulty with immigration in this context!
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicative of the attitude were going to see if Leave win, then the UK is going to be a very unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, the establishment elite, liars and so on. The idea that Remainers are not being attacked personally and viciously is far-fetched to say the least. This has been a deeply unpleasant few weeks.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
Having campaigned on significantly cutting immigration Leave has to deliver that. EEA/EFTA - an option I could happily live with - is off the table for that reason. If not, millions of Leave voters will, rightly, feel utterly betrayed.
It will come down to presentation and fudge as ever I imagine. It would be presented as EEA/EFTA + EFTA emergency brake being immediately pulled, then letting things settle down and vote for whatever you want to follow according to the manifestos of the parties in 2020, because now you are "in control".... or some such bollocks
That's exactly right. Gove/Boris will immediately pull the brake, ask to be judged at GE2020, where they will hope for a demonstrable cut in numbers, and continue to work to lower it further in the long term.
The debate does not appear to have had any effect on the markets (although see Faisal Islam on Twitter right now for discussions on what that means and how accurate they might be), and we haven't had polling, but I think it pretty clear Leave "won" the debate, in the same way that Alex Salmond won against Alistair darling and Nigel Farage won against Nick Clegg
In essence, the snake oil salesmen have the easier sell, and blatant lies don't worry them.
Want more money? Sure, you can have that.
Shorter hospital queues? You got it.
Of course behind the shiny spin lies the black heart of the Leave campaign, "All the bad things in your life are the fault of immigrants"
Want more money? We'll stop immigrants from coming here and claiming your benefits.
Shorter hospital queues? We'll stop immigrants using your hospitals.
It would be sad, sad day for our country if this message wins, and it is not at all clear who might successfully pick up the pieces afterwards.
Boris ought to be a busted flush. If Andrea Leadsom became PM in a Brexit World, I would vote Labour.
Good summary Scott, I find it amazing that ~45-55% of voters are prepared to say a hail mary and vote for a future which has only been sketched out for them in the vaguest detail. It's unbelievable - And says much about how unimportant manifestos must be. Amber Rudd was right to highlight unicorns and rainbows, as that's how Brexit has been presented. This is a decision with direct implications on thousands of lives, not least mine, and If we leave the people who have sold this are going to have to deliver tangible benefit for the Cs Ds and Es to whom they have sold their unicorns and rainbows. Or else there will be trouble ahead.
The Remainians are showing their weaknesses well today - various shades of Europhile governments have failed to deliver meaningful progress to CDE demographics over several decades and are surprised that the voters are tilting towards someone else.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
Only on Single Market related matters, I know this comes as a shock but there are other aspects of our relationship with the EU (ie. most of them) which are not trade related, and for most Leaver those are the damn problem!
Articles 112-3 of the EEA agreement allow parties to unilaterally take “appropriate measures” if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties are liable to persist. I think a leave vote could be considered a societal difficulty with immigration in this context!
"Societal" does not equal PB Leavers.
It probably does equal 50.1%+ of the population voting for leave ?
Very coherent, compelling and persuasive piece by John Mann on Today about immigration - the UK needing to plan infrastructure and that can only happen if we are in control of the numbers. Of course nothing about non-EU immigration but so what.
It was only John Humphries' experience and ability that managed to pivot him onto (local) democracy, where it all got bogged down.
I can see many people swayed by the argument. If Leave wins, as we have all agreed on here it's going to be nothing to do with any nebulous sovereignty bollocks, it's going to be immigration wot wins it.
I do think immigration may sometimes be used as an excuse for lack of action in the provision of services. Even without any immigration, people are still free to move from one part of the country to another, and this has to be accommodated. Some towns and cities expand and some shrink, so service provision must, to some extent, be reactive rather than minutely planned.
you can see that the variation in the change in city sizes from 1981 to 2013 is enormous. While some have seen huge growth, other (especially in the North East) have actually shrunk.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
Phil Collins summarises the position well in The Times today But leave is, by definition, a negative. It is predicated on the horrors of the status quo. On the pleasures of what may come after, the Leave campaign has nothing coherent to say
the Vote Leave poster on Turkey was the most blatant, desperate lie that I can recall in British politics. Shame on everyone involved.
The line leading to the status quo runs through the economy; the line leading to Brexit heads straight through immigration.
If Britain did leave the EU and Boris Johnson had to spend years renegotiating back everything he had just willingly lost, the free market leavers will wonder what they were thinking. The sovereignty-fetishists will note that every alliance — trade, defence, whatever — is a pooling of sovereignty. The immigration obsessives will complain about a points system that lets too many in, because that is what they always think.
" But leave is, by definition , a negative ". No it isn't. For example, if Phil Collins left The Times, that would be a positive for Times readers. Phil Collins is, by definition, an oaf.
Remain enthusiasts believe that the EU negotiates trading arrangements for all their members' benefit.
If we have Brexit, we will lose TTIP. How many jobs will that cost in this country? It is a serious question, which I asked Ken Clark in public last week. He fluffed around the issue, explaining that he had helped negotiate TTIP on behalf of the EU (which I knew, and was why I asked him).
The answer, which he did not give is, 'zero, as near as dammit'.
The big point is that these trade deals add up to very little. Businesses really, really don't need them.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
If the UK votes Leave expecting a significant drop in immigration, and we go EEA/EFTA, assuming we can, then the emergency brake can only be triggered in exceptional circumstances. Unemployment of 5.1% and the highest employment for nearly 50 years ain't exceptional. Or rather, it is but not in the way that supports using the emergency brake.
If you argue that the sheer volume of immigration should support the emergency brake, then it will be pointed out that with the corresponding sheer volume of visitors to the UK, and no entry/exit ledger, it would be virtually impossible to implement.
And then people say we can vote out the government if, after leaving the EU they re-enter it through EEA/EFTA, but as I have pointed out previously, what would the alternative then be? Lab? Cons? UKIP? The first two of these are, generally pro-EU, pro-immigration (or at least a majority in parliament would be) so the electorate would effectively have been disenfranchised.
Folks, whichever side of the fence you are, it's knife-edge close!
I wonder if that is right.
The polls are close, but their measuring instruments are broken. The gap between Yes and No in the Sindy was 10 per cent, and the pollsters could not measure it accurately.
In such circs, the pollsters know that the best place to be is a statistical dead heat with both sides equal within the margin of error.
The mood music from the camps is certainly that Remain are finding it heavy going.
But, No found it heavy going in Scotland and still won reasonably comfortably in the end.
Much my thoughts.I think that the mathematical range of error in the polling is dwarfed by the potential biases in the polling. In my own assessment I would call it anywhere between 60/40 but am uncertain which way. What I do find strange is how consistent the betting exchanges have been. There is a certainty there that I do not share.
Very coherent, compelling and persuasive piece by John Mann on Today about immigration - the UK needing to plan infrastructure and that can only happen if we are in control of the numbers. Of course nothing about non-EU immigration but so what.
It was only John Humphries' experience and ability that managed to pivot him onto (local) democracy, where it all got bogged down.
I can see many people swayed by the argument. If Leave wins, as we have all agreed on here it's going to be nothing to do with any nebulous sovereignty bollocks, it's going to be immigration wot wins it.
I do think immigration may sometimes be used as an excuse for lack of action in the provision of services. Even without any immigration, people are still free to move from one part of the country to another, and this has to be accommodated. Some towns and cities expand and some shrink, so service provision must, to some extent, be reactive rather than minutely planned.
you can see that the variation in the change in city sizes from 1981 to 2013 is enormous. While some have seen huge growth, other (especially in the North East) have actually shrunk.
Indeed. I have long said that immigration is a convenient mask for the failure of successive governments to plan our infrastructure appropriately.
Someone said on here yesterday - "imagine London with an extra 1m people..." but London is a different country to the rest of the UK.
Cameron has just said Brexit would put HS2 at serious risk. Bang goes a load of AB Remain voters in the Chilterns.
I swear Cameron is campaigning for us to leave!
Perhaps the panic that is rightly sweeping No.10 is leading them to just grasp at any passing straw. Who in their right mind thought dragging HS2 into this would help?
Does anybody have a list of what councils/areas are likely to declare first. Always feel these give a good betting opportunity as they tend to panic people. If it's going to be the likes of Basildon, Bassetlaw and Sunderland then feels like a good time to buy leave now and sell once these results are in.
Very coherent, compelling and persuasive piece by John Mann on Today about immigration - the UK needing to plan infrastructure and that can only happen if we are in control of the numbers. Of course nothing about non-EU immigration but so what.
It was only John Humphries' experience and ability that managed to pivot him onto (local) democracy, where it all got bogged down.
I can see many people swayed by the argument. If Leave wins, as we have all agreed on here it's going to be nothing to do with any nebulous sovereignty bollocks, it's going to be immigration wot wins it.
I do think immigration may sometimes be used as an excuse for lack of action in the provision of services. Even without any immigration, people are still free to move from one part of the country to another, and this has to be accommodated. Some towns and cities expand and some shrink, so service provision must, to some extent, be reactive rather than minutely planned.
you can see that the variation in the change in city sizes from 1981 to 2013 is enormous. While some have seen huge growth, other (especially in the North East) have actually shrunk.
I don't want to take anything away from your point - but I'd point out, in relation to this article, that you get quite a different picture if you just go back to 1991 or 2001. The fastest growing city at the last census was Manchester, which had grown by about 30% in population in ten years.
Question for PB'ers: If Leave do actually win how long is it likely Dave will survive and how long before we get a new PM?
Gone very quickly, and one of the value bets is on a 2016 or 2017 election.
This is not a usual change of PM in office, it requires nearly a whole new front bench and cabinet, as well as the various opposition parties to put together their Leave manifestos to the country.
That's pretty awful revisionism. The term 'Remain' has come to refer to this EU referendum anded out.
She catic!
You're digging a (fox) hole for yourself here.
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then and Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
If this post is indicavery unpleasant place indeed.
The unpleasantness on here isn't from Leavers. It's the typical mad, bad, or sad labelling we are used to every day of the week.
You are losing the argument.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the going to pay a very heavy price.
Good post, although I sincerely hope that Remain will come back in the next week or so.
Can't see it myself. I've always thought Leave would win and still do. I hope I am wrong, though. Having away from the country for a week and having spent a lot of that time speaking to Europeans and Yanks, I don't think many people outside the UK seriously believe Brexit will happen. That worries me greatly as that may trigger an even more pronounced adverse reaction when it does. I am just praying that the Leave side have really seen things I genuinely can't. We really need them to be right here; we really do.
Chill. You yourself have said you could live with EEA-EFTA, and could even see yourself wanting it. MPs have made it pretty clear what they'll do in the event of a Leave vote. Hannan has made it clear that the real-politik of a narrow Leave vote would require a slow and steady disengagement through the EEA, as a lot of people will still have voted for the single market.
So relax.
But that means keeping free movement surely so what is the gain apart from not being involved at the table?
Being out of political union and being at more tables where we're currently "represented" by the EU.
and critically, no bloody ECJ!
EEA/EFTA = Single Market = ECJ.
Only on Single Market related matters, I know this comes as a shock but there are other aspects of our relationship with the EU (ie. most of them) which are not trade related, and for most Leaver those are the damn problem!
Articles 112-3 of the EEA agreement allow parties to unilaterally take “appropriate measures” if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties are liable to persist. I think a leave vote could be considered a societal difficulty with immigration in this context!
It would be a serious act of bad faith for Britain to negotiate entry into the EEA, whose core principle is free movement, and then immediately abrogate it. If it did happen, the EC Commission would immediately put the proposed measures into arbitration and they would without any doubt win it.
(Unless the purpose of Brexit is to trash our economy so comprehensively that it is a genuine emergency)
The EEA is overseen by the EFTA court, which is a special version of the ECJ.
Does anybody have a list of what councils/areas are likely to declare first. Always feel these give a good betting opportunity as they tend to panic people. If it's going to be the likes of Basildon, Bassetlaw and Sunderland then feels like a good time to buy leave now and sell once these results are in.
Sunderland - needs leave to be 53-47 for it to be a thai on Chris Hanretty's model.
Very coherent, compelling and persuasive piece by John Mann on Today about immigration - the UK needing to plan infrastructure and that can only happen if we are in control of the numbers. Of course nothing about non-EU immigration but so what.
It was only John Humphries' experience and ability that managed to pivot him onto (local) democracy, where it all got bogged down.
I can see many people swayed by the argument. If Leave wins, as we have all agreed on here it's going to be nothing to do with any nebulous sovereignty bollocks, it's going to be immigration wot wins it.
I do think immigration may sometimes be used as an excuse for lack of action in the provision of services. Even without any immigration, people are still free to move from one part of the country to another, and this has to be accommodated. Some towns and cities expand and some shrink, so service provision must, to some extent, be reactive rather than minutely planned.
you can see that the variation in the change in city sizes from 1981 to 2013 is enormous. While some have seen huge growth, other (especially in the North East) have actually shrunk.
Indeed. I have long said that immigration is a convenient mask for the failure of successive governments to plan our infrastructure appropriately.
Someone said on here yesterday - "imagine London with an extra 1m people..." but London is a different country to the rest of the UK.
If our politicians have a record of abysmal failure in planning our infrastructure, then that is an argument FOR controlling immigrating.
If there are fools in charge, then everything needs to be kept as easy to predict as possible.
Unless you think the quality of our politicians and planners is likely to improve,
Comments
The reason she lost power was because she saw the light on the EC and so was deposed by the Eurofanatics. Conflating that with her dementia which happened much later in life is particularly sordid but no more than I would expect from a Remainder like yourself.
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/741168637575364609
Rudd was a bit hectoring but impressively abreast of the facts.
What was so striking about Leadsom was how succinct and clear she was. She never rambled; everything she said was crystal clear and pointed. Very reminiscent of Thatcher.
Like I said last night, whether you disagree with everything she said or not isn't the point, if you have somebody who can communicate very succinctly (voters likd a clear contrast of black and white) they have the makings of a leader.
I don't think that she had dementia while in office, that came later, but she certainly had lost her political acumen by the 1989. Europe was part of it but the reason that her party deposed her and so much of the nation cheered when she did is that she was a spent force by 1990.
As I pointed out, the curse of female Tory Leadership candidates is to be measured against her. I disliked her politics but in her prime she was a very capable politician. She just didn't know when to quit. Third terms are pretty toxic to PMs, Dave Cameron is right not to attempt it.
I caught a little of PMQs, I was staggered by one remark of Cameron's -. the increased war threat if we leave. In the 1950s, the idea of a trading bloc leading to a political union was an interesting one. NATO was new, the Russians were a monolithic bloc, the US were pulling back from Europe (Suez happened), who knew what lay around the corner? A united Europe had its attractions.
But the earth rotated, the world changed. NATO is a fact of life. The wars in Europe were due to the breakup of the USSR. In Yugoslavia, it was NATO airpower that stopped it eventually. I didn't notice the Juncker Blitzkrieg at all.
If we leave, which EU country are we likely to invade? They are virtually all NATO members. Perhaps Denmark will invade us? They used to, but since we've joined the EU, they've retreated. Ah ... I've got one ... Iceland! The Cod wars! Is that what he meant?
The more I thought about it, the more juvenile it became. Yes, politics is a game of slogans not of facts. But like playground games, it shouldn't be taken seriously.
"On polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.
They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn’t come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote."
On the frontline in Bassatlaw it must be clear to him that they'll be voting Leave in droves. How many other solid Labour northern/midlands constituencies are the same? We hear reports of Labour MPs returning from canvassing with "ashen faces" as they contemplate what's happening in their patch.
Will the votes of London and Scotland be enough to overturn this potential roar of rage from once-safe Labour voters?
I don't think so.
I've just topped up my Leave bets at 3.95 on BF.
Who did Best
LEAVE Voters:
Stuart: 43
Leadsom: 38
Johnson: 17
Eagle: 1
Rudd: 0
Sturgeon: 0
REMAIN Voters:
Sturgeon: 41
Rudd: 37
Eagle: 11
Leadsom: 5
Stuart: 5
Johnson: 0
UNDECIDED voters:
Leadsom: 33
Stuart: 28
Johnson: 13
Sturgeon: 12
Rudd: 10
Eagle: 3
Interesting to see who the 'home team' preferred (not mega star Boris), but with the UNDECIDED a clear win for LEAVE
I never liked Thatcher, too detached for me. I did vote for her as Get Things Done leader.
Hell, I'm a political junkie, and I'm certainly no football fan, and I'll be watching the football.
It makes me wonder what they are hearing in their constituencies.
I think over 50%.
The implications for immigration levels are that a Leave vote wouldn't result in any change in immigration. I don't think a non-freedom of movement arrangement wwit the. EU ould see a very big drop in immigration either because high immigration is a facet of an open economy in a globalised world. This in turn makes the EEA option more likely IMO.
There was an intriguing discussion on Twitter between several journos re postal votes - Giles Dilnot noted there wasn't just some notable heaps piling up, but 'where' they were.
Who knows which side he was alluding to - but it's very tantalising. I missed QT, but Twitter seemed to taken aback by the pro-Leave nature of the audience. Oh, and Eddie Izzard's meltdown.
Just read The Times and both the debate summary and the political sketch give it very comfortably to Amber Rudd.
I know The Times is leaning to Remain, but they usually give a balanced assessment of debate performances.
To plan anything (like provision of education or number of homes or number of doctor surgeries), you need to have an idea of the population in an area over the next 5 to 10 years.
For me, the standout was Gisela Stuart, who emphasised this point and its impact on public services.
I am for immigration (and have benefitted from it enormously in my professional life), but the immigration has to be planned, otherwise absolute chaos is going to result.
The Left used to believe in planning ... what on earth happened to the Left during my life, I sometimes wonder.
This is Tom Watson's backyard.
It was only John Humphries' experience and ability that managed to pivot him onto (local) democracy, where it all got bogged down.
I can see many people swayed by the argument. If Leave wins, as we have all agreed on here it's going to be nothing to do with any nebulous sovereignty bollocks, it's going to be immigration wot wins it.
Leave at 3.9 is surely value...
It became "progressive."
You're right, it was always central planning vs the unfettered dog-eat-dog capitalist dogma.
The" intellectuals" used to pay attention to the views of their voters, but now the voters are a nuisance unless they agree with their own progressive views.
Looks like Sarah Wollaston's political somersault has had reverse results.
If the UK votes Leave expecting a significant drop in immigration, and we go EEA/EFTA, assuming we can, then the emergency brake can only be triggered in exceptional circumstances. Unemployment of 5.1% and the highest employment for nearly 50 years ain't exceptional. Or rather, it is but not in the way that supports using the emergency brake.
If you argue that the sheer volume of immigration should support the emergency brake, then it will be pointed out that with the corresponding sheer volume of visitors to the UK, and no entry/exit ledger, it would be virtually impossible to implement.
And then people say we can vote out the government if, after leaving the EU they re-enter it through EEA/EFTA, but as I have pointed out previously, what would the alternative then be? Lab? Cons? UKIP? The first two of these are, generally pro-EU, pro-immigration (or at least a majority in parliament would be) so the electorate would effectively have been disenfranchised.
Articles 112-3 of the EEA agreement allow parties to unilaterally take “appropriate measures” if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties are liable to persist. I think a leave vote could be considered a societal difficulty with immigration in this context!
The polls are close, but their measuring instruments are broken. The gap between Yes and No in the Sindy was 10 per cent, and the pollsters could not measure it accurately.
In such circs, the pollsters know that the best place to be is a statistical dead heat with both sides equal within the margin of error.
The mood music from the camps is certainly that Remain are finding it heavy going.
But, No found it heavy going in Scotland and still won reasonably comfortably in the end.
The relative merits of planned action as opposed to a free market, free for all are best illustrated by the refugee situation.
Cameron's planned approach is helping those most in need and is creating little problem, whereas Merkel's free for all created chaos.
But leave is, by definition, a negative. It is predicated on the horrors of the status quo. On the pleasures of what may come after, the Leave campaign has nothing coherent to say
the Vote Leave poster on Turkey was the most blatant, desperate lie that I can recall in British politics. Shame on everyone involved.
The line leading to the status quo runs through the economy; the line leading to Brexit heads straight through immigration.
If Britain did leave the EU and Boris Johnson had to spend years renegotiating back everything he had just willingly lost, the free market leavers will wonder what they were thinking. The sovereignty-fetishists will note that every alliance — trade, defence, whatever — is a pooling of sovereignty. The immigration obsessives will complain about a points system that lets too many in, because that is what they always think.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-leave-camp-has-no-clue-where-its-going-237nxh2kd
@LadPolitics: @alstewitn @BorisJohnson The betting markets generally have gone against him recently and that continued after last night.
Sensible Remainers like TSE would have no problem with Andrea Leadsom as PM.
Looking here, for example:
http://www.citymetric.com/business/britains-fastest-growing-cities-are-all-south-and-its-shrinking-ones-all-north-1323
you can see that the variation in the change in city sizes from 1981 to 2013 is enormous. While some have seen huge growth, other (especially in the North East) have actually shrunk.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1
Those Amber Rudd scripted/distasteful lines on Boris - not a man to drive you home after a party - will have had Cam/Os approval. Incredible
No it isn't. For example, if Phil Collins left The Times, that would be a positive for Times readers.
Phil Collins is, by definition, an oaf.
If we have Brexit, we will lose TTIP. How many jobs will that cost in this country? It is a serious question, which I asked Ken Clark in public last week. He fluffed around the issue, explaining that he had helped negotiate TTIP on behalf of the EU (which I knew, and was why I asked him).
The answer, which he did not give is, 'zero, as near as dammit'.
The big point is that these trade deals add up to very little. Businesses really, really don't need them.
In 2 weeks we shall know for sure.
Someone said on here yesterday - "imagine London with an extra 1m people..." but London is a different country to the rest of the UK.
Brexit would see Thatcher rise from the dead. Vote REMAIN.
I wonder if Cameron and Osborne has focus grouped it?
This is not a usual change of PM in office, it requires nearly a whole new front bench and cabinet, as well as the various opposition parties to put together their Leave manifestos to the country.
"Even without any immigration, people are still free to move from one part of the country to another, and this has to be accommodated."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36389905
Where do you suggest the locals move to?
(Unless the purpose of Brexit is to trash our economy so comprehensively that it is a genuine emergency)
The EEA is overseen by the EFTA court, which is a special version of the ECJ.
If there are fools in charge, then everything needs to be kept as easy to predict as possible.
Unless you think the quality of our politicians and planners is likely to improve,
If she's good enough and appealing enough she has a shot.