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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real winner of the debate last night
To overshadow Boris Johnson in a TV debate, is an achievement very few have managed. For that alone she should be worth backing. Her pre political career is something that will appeal to many, especially if the country wants someone who isn’t considered to be a career politician.
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Oh...... and good morning all.
I agree. I had two texts from friends (still on the fence) last night saying how impressed they were with her.
Maggie was for Remain, implemented the single market and was keen to expand into eastern Europe.
Andrea could learn from her.
And from last night's debate at least, you would think it was Leave that was the slick, professional, well resourced operation, and Remain the disparate rag-bag of misfiring shreiky folk. Whoever put those three forward should be fired from Remain's operation. Even on paper they would have looked wrong for an am-dram production of Macbeth. When shall we three meet again? Not until at least early July would be my suggestion...
It's very brave to short on Boris now.
I’m getting more and more depressed about the UK’s future. Don’t expect to be as bad as the Indie suggests (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-referendum-brexit-britain-in-2025-if-we-leave-eu-a7069476.html) but from where I’m sitting it doesn’t look good at all. Run on the pound and crash of investment values.
I agree that when she lost power and developed dementia she became more eurosceptic!
First, the EU is unrecognisable now from how it was back then
and
Second, I'm sorry, but to attribute euroscepticism to dementia is beneath both you and this site. Is this how low you have stooped or is it because Remain are in trouble?
http://eurofantasy.uefa.com/en
Fantasy 16
League code: 92877R24
I rather fancy Poland as a long shot, though France are rightly favourites.
I think 1 nil to the frogs tonight. Romania has a pretty solid defence.
Many of the attributes that Leavers so object to (the 4 freedoms, expansion into Eastern Europe, loss of national veto, central regulation to reduce non-tariff barriers) are a direct result of Maggie pushing through the single market.
Next.
You are losing the argument.
This is why the Inter-Governmental Conference which culminated in the SEA had a dual mandate. It was necessary to conclude, on the one hand, a Treaty relating to common foreign and security policy and, on the other hand, an act amending the EEC Treaty, notably at the level of:
the decision-making procedure within the Council;
the Commission's powers
the European Parliament's powers;
the extension of the Communities' responsibilities."
From http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:xy0027
The Single European Act was Mrs Thatcher's principle contribution to our relationship with the EU during her decade as PM.
I think the answer is simple. We need a pb séance.
I do agree, though, that Remain has lost the argument. Of course, that does not mean that Remain is wrong. Let's just hope that turns out to be the case. If it isn't a lot of ordinary people are going to pay a very heavy price.
Maggie undoubtedly pursued the membership of eastern Europe. She did so because of her long held concern about countries under the yoke of the Soviet Union, her desire to embed these countries as western style democracies and she also believed, wrongly, that it would dilute the power of a unified Germany inside the EU.
Who knows what she would have thought of the EU in its current state and frankly, who cares? She doesn't have a vote.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/741148690900000769
Another angle is that as well as promoting a Brexiter, Cameron would be promoting a woman, which would offer an opportunity to dump an underperforming women cabinet minister without too much washback from gender equality types.
Lots of "ifs" and "coulds".
"I could never have signed this treaty. I hope that that is clear to all who have heard me."
- Speech to the House of Lords rejecting the Maastricht Treaty (7 June, 1993)
Doesn't mean a damn thing for most of the public.
Immigration? Bullseye.
LibDem win with 20% increase:
Surrey Docks (Southwark) result:
LDEM: 51.7% (+20.1)
LAB: 21.3% (-0.3)
CON: 12.9% (-7.0)
GRN: 7.4% (-4.3)
UKIP: 6.3% (-8.9)
IND: 0.3% (+0.3)
Labour just hold off a huge swing to Greens:
Gipsy Hill (Lambeth) result:
LAB: 43.4% (-23.6)
GRN: 42.1% (+31.2)
CON: 7.5% (-5.6)
LDEM: 3.0% (-1.9)
UKIP: 2.6% (-1.6)
IND: 0.9%
TUSC: 0.7%
and even some rare good news for UKIP, a gain with a 7% increase:
Laindon Park and Fryerns (Essex) result:
UKIP: 42.6% (+6.8)
LAB: 33.5% (-3.2)
CON: 18.4% (+2.6)
GRN: 5.5% (+3.3)
Crumb of comfort for Labour:
South (North East Lincolnshire) result:
LAB: 47.4% (+4.9)
UKIP: 28.9% (-3.4)
CON: 19.5% (+0.8)
GRN: 2.5% (+2.5)
TUSC: 1.6% (-0.5)
Boris played his part, took all the insults on the chin and regularly deferred to his colleagues. Gisela stole the show as wise owl - I'd no idea of her background in EU law or role in negotiating previous EU rounds. Leadsom had every fact at her fingertips and a reassuring credibility. How Rudd is her boss is beyond me.
Labelling the EU as old fashioned/a noble idea past its time was a neat pivot. The audience couldn't have missed 'take back control' or 'democracy' as key messages.
I'm totally perplexed by what Team Remain were doing. Or what result they were after. It certainly didn't seem to be establishing a case for Stay In. It was mostly, nobble Boris.
Sturgeon's position was all over the place, as she talked about the benefits of independence in one breath and then the EU in the other. She's a strong debater, but this was the wrong referendum. And why did she keep banging on about climate change? Eagles disappointed me the most. She can be very good in the HoC - but was wrong from the off. Grumpy/showed all her emotions, Tory bashing, using GE language. It all sounded very whiny and off the point.
Rudd was very good at the beginning - a commanding manner, then became increasingly rude and shrill. And then she played the Little Englander card. 50% of her closing remarks bashed Boris and implied he was an irresponsible drunk. Doesn't she know not to fold her arms?
Several journalists expressed real surprise at the ferocity of their Get Boris tactics. At least one of the voxpops said they felt sorry for him. 8/10 Julia Etchingham did a solid job moderating, a noticeable improvement on her earlier outing re Farage/Cameron.
http://www.brixtonbuzz.com/2016/06/lambeth-labour-limp-home-in-gipsy-hill-by-election-with-luke-murphy-winning-by-just-36-votes/
They seem to feel the local Labour party was too progressive for its voters.
She's the oddest looking thing - those staring doll eyes, it's really most unnerving.
So relax.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/741053461157023746
What was your impression?
Heath was famous for his 20 year sulk after losing power, but Mrs Thatchers undermining of the Major government from behind the scenes was far worse behaviour. John Major is a much better model of how an ex leader should behave.
In the nineties Maggie looked a shell of herself, physically as well as mentally, brooding over old disputes. In many ways a tragic figure, brought down by her own character flaws.
Did I watch the same programme? Leadsom was terrible IMHO. Amber Rudd completely outshone anyone else.
She told me but, if you don't believe me, ask her private secretary, either or her two main biographers or her close personal friends. Or look at what she said.
Who cares? Well, it doesn't matter anymore. But several europhiles *still*!seem to think she's an ace card, just because she wore a jumper with some European flags on it over 40 years ago.
Although with poety I think a major problem is to many layman the difference between a good poem and a bad one is not at all obvious.
I lived in the Streatham Vale area for most of my life until 15 years ago.
The demographics were changing when I left and the change since then has been astonishing, on much the scale of Newham.
Part of it is because those areas were Croydon Suburbs as much as London Suburbs - Mitcham was still in Surrey until 1965 and Croydon was its own county until then.
Croydon was a Northern Manufacturing Town in all but geographical locations. The Purley Way was lined with factories end to end. Rowan Road (where the south London Crematorium is) had two large factories in among the houses with a third in Meopham Rd one of the turnoffs off it. The Mullard later Philips factory in Hackbridge employed thick end of 10,000.
In the 80s and 90s they all closed and became out of town retail parks in the case of Purley Way and housing elsewhere.
As an engineer there was no future there for me so I got out. Nearly all the people who viewed my flat were african immigrants, as were the buyers. Mind you so is my wife lol.
What did you make of the debate?
I appreciate it's a bit different inside Government. But I'm not convinced it's that different. The main difference is not having the party machine and all the think tanks and papers coming to you, with all the necessary aids and advisors, and time to prepare.
But if a serious leadership bid is mounted, those will come.
The debate does not appear to have had any effect on the markets (although see Faisal Islam on Twitter right now for discussions on what that means and how accurate they might be), and we haven't had polling, but I think it pretty clear Leave "won" the debate, in the same way that Alex Salmond won against Alistair darling and Nigel Farage won against Nick Clegg
In essence, the snake oil salesmen have the easier sell, and blatant lies don't worry them.
Want more money? Sure, you can have that.
Shorter hospital queues? You got it.
Of course behind the shiny spin lies the black heart of the Leave campaign, "All the bad things in your life are the fault of immigrants"
Want more money? We'll stop immigrants from coming here and claiming your benefits.
Shorter hospital queues? We'll stop immigrants using your hospitals.
It would be sad, sad day for our country if this message wins, and it is not at all clear who might successfully pick up the pieces afterwards.
Boris ought to be a busted flush. If Andrea Leadsom became PM in a Brexit World, I would vote Labour.
I find it a turn-off. There's no hope - just demands for more money, then complaining it wasn't enough.
Fortunately for them, not many will have seen it.
Wembley is the big one.
Tuesday 21 June, 18.00 (Marseille): Ukraine v Poland – Group C
Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Bordeaux): Croatia v Spain – Group D
Tuesday 21 June, 21.00 (Lens): Czech Republic v Turkey – Group D
My opinion on the polling on this is that the difficulties in getting accurate samples and forecasting the demographics and geography of turnout very dubious indeed. RodCrosby has said more or less the same, and Jacks ARSE is sorely missed.
My hunch is that Remain will win with a percentage above 55%, but the range of possible outcomes is wide. 60/40 either way is possible. The value is on the Leave side, I am most green on Remain 40-45%.
Good post Scott. I enjoy your links, but when you sometimes hide your own light under a bushel.