politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voters’ misconceptions could win this for Leave
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DYOR before making such stupid comments! You've never looked at companies house or any official documents relating to there have you? I rest my case.JohnO said:
I have a hunch-man that the votes are all being 'counted' in Finchley Road.RobD said:
As a fellow PB Tory, I take it you've seen the arranged vote tallies? Bet accordinglyTheScreamingEagles said:
Remain are going to win this referendum by 80% to Leave's 20%felix said:
Oh dear - it's gonna be a rough night on here CCCOOONNSSSPPPIIIRRRAAACCCYYYYYYYY!!Scott_P said:@KateEMcCann: Mahmood said he was offended by "racist" Leave announcements on Turkey and "disappointed" by Boris comments on Obama https://t.co/bdcE38UEtS
Remain are so professional with their campaign and sleeper agents.
With MI7 on their side, Dave can put his feet up for the next fortnight.
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Is this two envelope the same system everywhere and do they only open the A envelopes at the count?RobD said:
Isn't it that only the outer envelope is opened before polling day? He may be talking about number of votes rather than which way they have voted?Richard_Tyndall said:
It has to be bull. As I understand it the votes are just opened and verified at this time. They will not actually be counted until the night and that will be done at more than 300 counts around the country. I see absolutely no way on earth he could have any idea about what the postal votes are showing nationally.Sandpit said:
He can get away with it as long as he's not posting actual vote numbers.RobD said:
Bordering on illegal there!Scott_P said:@thequentinletts: Heard an intriguing rumour last night about Out/In percentages in early postal-vote returns.
@thequentinletts: Further rumours reach me of postal vote early returns. They may explain the recent acceleration in activity by Downing St.
One can well believe that a lot of Leave voters voted early, their minds already made up.
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HYUFD said:
The elderly get postal votes in the earliest so they should favour Leave for nowPulpstar said:
One would expect postal vote returns to be more "Remain" based on the fact ABs use them the most, however they tend also to be used by older people which may cancel it out.Scott_P said:@thequentinletts: Heard an intriguing rumour last night about Out/In percentages in early postal-vote returns.
@thequentinletts: Further rumours reach me of postal vote early returns. They may explain the recent acceleration in activity by Downing St.
"Remain" is f*cked if it is behind on the postal count.
Don't most postal votes get sent back the day they are received so they don't get forgotten?
Even so some postal votes never get returned - 25% from memory at the last general election.
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Netflix have apparently got even more aggressive in the past few days, stopping to ipv6 tunnelling services. Obviously their hands are being forced by the content owners, who are total muppets.Sandpit said:
Most of the good ones have stopped working recently, as far as content geoblocking (BBC, Netflix) goes.kle4 said:Unconnected to anything else, anyone know what VPNs are worth using?
The "content industry" doesn't understand that if you treat your legitimate customers like that then most of them find "other" ways to watch what they want.
The best VPN is one that's incoming to your house or office in the UK, easy to set up with a half decent router.0 -
Has Theresa Villiers had a bit of a makeover?0
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Send him to Wigan pier....TCPoliticalBetting said:Financial illiteracy from a BBC political reporter. Norman Smith on R4 PM 5 mins ago.
"Qn: What will the EU do if we LEAVE and end our payments?
Ans: I dont think it will make much difference as they will be too distracted with all the other issues.."
A £10 billion black hole in their funding is not much?0 -
Leave moving back in quite strongly on Betfair - is this poll related?0
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Rather more than a tad I would say -weejonnie said:Looks like leave coming back in a tad on betfair.
At midday LEAVE were 4.5 to back on the Betfair exchange, right now they are 3.9, that's a huge movement in just a few hours ...... I reckon that either OGH has been back in the market backing them, or there's a mighty favourable poll for them due out any time soon.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Mark, it's the heroism of Satan in Paradise Lost. Or Constantine Dragases at the fall of Byzantium. Or Leonidas at Thermopylae.
"They say Remain has so much propaganda it will blot out the sun."
"Then we shall campaign in the shade."
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For Iplayer access I use Media Hint which is 39.99 decadent American dollars a month.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what you want it for. How concerned you are about logging. If you want continued iplayer access. How cost sensitive you are.kle4 said:Unconnected to anything else, anyone know what VPNs are worth using?
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Is false indignation some sort of catnip to the right?LadyBucket said:Just listened to Sarah Wollaston on LBC. My goodness, she waffled for England. I'm not convinced and feel this story will unravel as time goes on.
I think the bigger story is Major and Blair stirring up the Northern Ireland troubles. What an insult to the Irish people after all they have been through for all those years.0 -
That is way too much for a general VPN! You can get good vpns for a 1/10 of the price that iplayer still works with.rpjs said:
For Iplayer access I use Media Hint which is 39.99 decadent American dollars a month.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what you want it for. How concerned you are about logging. If you want continued iplayer access. How cost sensitive you are.kle4 said:Unconnected to anything else, anyone know what VPNs are worth using?
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Yeah I saw that the other day. Nothing like alienating your paying customers. Did the movie industry not learn anything from the music industry and Napster way back in the '90s?FrancisUrquhart said:
Netflix have apparently got even more aggressive in the past few days, stopping to ipv6 tunnelling services. Obviously their hands are being forced by the content owners, who are total muppets.Sandpit said:
Most of the good ones have stopped working recently, as far as content geoblocking (BBC, Netflix) goes.kle4 said:Unconnected to anything else, anyone know what VPNs are worth using?
The "content industry" doesn't understand that if you treat your legitimate customers like that then most of them find "other" ways to watch what they want.
The best VPN is one that's incoming to your house or office in the UK, easy to set up with a half decent router.0 -
Depends how he does tonight and on 21st.RobD said:
Will Boris get the votes required to put him to the membership?TGOHF said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/09/look-out-boris-johnson--downing-streets-assassins-are-out-to-get/
"It’s quite plausible: the next Prime Minister will be chosen by Tory party members and they’ll probably back Brexit by a margin of two-to-one.
They’re unlikely to forget being told by George Osborne that they are “economically illiterate” or that they are saboteurs who seek to “place a bomb” under their country.
It’s hard to see the Chancellor, or anyone else, beating Boris in a leadership election. But if Remain wins, there may be enough time to stop Boris getting to the starting line."0 -
Hi all. I am a Leave supporter and thought Sarah Wollaston's comments were tricky for the Leave campaign, albeit I don't agree with her. That said, it hardly got a mention on the 6 o'clock news and we must remember most voters aren't sat on politicalbetting.com reading about the referendum all day.
My thought about Major and Blair heading to NI is that Major's comments on the news about Scotland is potentially creating a real hostage to fortune for the UK government in the future. The line from the UK government has been there is no case for a second referendum, yet Major said that if there is popular demand for one a government couldn't refuse. I know he means post-Brexit, but the principle is set potentially. Isn't that actually destabilising to the UK too!!0 -
Well done Jonny Bairstow, gets his name on the board in the Long Room. A good day's batting from England.0
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Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Agent Corbyn strikes again! Has slammed "utterly exaggerated claims" on both sides for "drowning out" the messages.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
On "utterly exaggerated" EU claims, Corbyn said: "I don't join in with that." On Monday he said paid holiday would be abolished after Brexit0 -
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.0 -
LadyBucket said:I think the bigger story is Major and Blair stirring up the Northern Ireland troubles. What an insult to the Irish people after all they have been through for all those years.
I hope that this does not create some unfortunate incidents in Northern Ireland as we move into the marching season. English politicians need to be very careful about unforeseen consequences of inflammatory language.0 -
Perhaps BBC bias rather than financial illiteracy?TCPoliticalBetting said:Financial illiteracy from a BBC political reporter. Norman Smith on R4 PM 5 mins ago.
"Qn: What will the EU do if we LEAVE and end our payments?
Ans: I dont think it will make much difference as they will be too distracted with all the other issues.."
A £10 billion black hole in their funding is not much?0 -
It was certainly my understanding that they don't open the vote envelope until the day. In Shropshire you had to fold the vote so they could read your validation code through the window. Every election these days people claim to have inside knowledge of the early postsl voting but afaiu it's bullshit.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Is this two envelope the same system everywhere and do they only open the A envelopes at the count?RobD said:
Isn't it that only the outer envelope is opened before polling day? He may be talking about number of votes rather than which way they have voted?Richard_Tyndall said:
It has to be bull. As I understand it the votes are just opened and verified at this time. They will not actually be counted until the night and that will be done at more than 300 counts around the country. I see absolutely no way on earth he could have any idea about what the postal votes are showing nationally.Sandpit said:
He can get away with it as long as he's not posting actual vote numbers.RobD said:
Bordering on illegal there!Scott_P said:@thequentinletts: Heard an intriguing rumour last night about Out/In percentages in early postal-vote returns.
@thequentinletts: Further rumours reach me of postal vote early returns. They may explain the recent acceleration in activity by Downing St.
One can well believe that a lot of Leave voters voted early, their minds already made up.0 -
No. The attackers are not EU citizens.RobD said:0 -
I know it is like that never happened. Also has nobody showed them (insert something I won't mention) which is like Netflix on steroids*. The only.way to beat free is to make it great, make it idiot proof, make it cheap, make it work everywhere.Sandpit said:
Yeah I saw that the other day. Nothing like alienating your paying customers. Did the movie industry not learn anything from the music industry and Napster way back in the '90s?FrancisUrquhart said:
Netflix have apparently got even more aggressive in the past few days, stopping to ipv6 tunnelling services. Obviously their hands are being forced by the content owners, who are total muppets.Sandpit said:
Most of the good ones have stopped working recently, as far as content geoblocking (BBC, Netflix) goes.kle4 said:Unconnected to anything else, anyone know what VPNs are worth using?
The "content industry" doesn't understand that if you treat your legitimate customers like that then most of them find "other" ways to watch what they want.
The best VPN is one that's incoming to your house or office in the UK, easy to set up with a half decent router.
* of course the content creators know about this but just sticking head in the sand.0 -
"Too many campaigners have failed to integrate into Vote Leave and speak the Vote Leave message..."Luckyguy1983 said:
Utter rubbish. Vote Leave and their utterly sh*t campaign (sorry Plato, but it is) have only themselves to blame. It was utterly stupid to imagine that they could sweep Nigel under the carpet, and that the other kids would play nice with them if they did. Instead, they should have done everything in their power to integrate him into their campaign, so everyone could at least have attempted to sing from the same hymn sheet. They were always going to lump him in with the Leave campaign regardless of official status.LadyBucket said:VoteLeave must be absolutely incandescent with rage at Nigel Farage. They had a good week last week, with immigration and a "points based" system and one inappropriate comment from Farage has completely changed the debate.
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Exactly, if Remain rack up large majorities in London, Scotland and NI they will scrape home even if Leave win the South, the Midlands and the North but do so bú a smaller marginDavid_Evershed said:
It's not First Past the Post though. Every vote counts.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
So getting NI and Scotland REMAINs up from 55% to 60% is worthwhile.0 -
in the past, agents could get a good idea how postal votes were going by watching them being opened. I think these days, only the outer envelope is opened.Richard_Tyndall said:
I agree but the intimation was that the early postal returns had either panicked or encouraged No 10. Not sure how he could reach that conclusion based solely on how many had been returned.RobD said:
Isn't it that only the outer envelope is opened before polling day? He may be talking about number of votes rather than which way they have voted?Richard_Tyndall said:
It has to be bull. As I understand it the votes are just opened and verified at this time. They will not actually be counted until the night and that will be done at more than 300 counts around the country. I see absolutely no way on earth he could have any idea about what the postal votes are showing nationally.Sandpit said:
He can get away with it as long as he's not posting actual vote numbers.RobD said:
Bordering on illegal there!Scott_P said:@thequentinletts: Heard an intriguing rumour last night about Out/In percentages in early postal-vote returns.
@thequentinletts: Further rumours reach me of postal vote early returns. They may explain the recent acceleration in activity by Downing St.
One can well believe that a lot of Leave voters voted early, their minds already made up.
Now, it may be that unusually high levels of postal votes are coming in from areas expected to vote Leave, which may be causing concern in No. 10.
But, that's only speculation.0 -
Yetnot_on_fire said:
No. The attackers are not EU citizens.RobD said:0 -
It's difficult to see that a vote for leave isn't a vote for the break up of the UK. Unless Scotland also votes for leave which seems unlikely. Wee Nicky has every right to hold a referendum and declare UDI as far as I can see.JamesM said:Hi all. I am a Leave supporter and thought Sarah Wollaston's comments were tricky for the Leave campaign, albeit I don't agree with her. That said, it hardly got a mention on the 6 o'clock news and we must remember most voters aren't sat on politicalbetting.com reading about the referendum all day.
My thought about Major and Blair heading to NI is that Major's comments on the news about Scotland is potentially creating a real hostage to fortune for the UK government in the future. The line from the UK government has been there is no case for a second referendum, yet Major said that if there is popular demand for one a government couldn't refuse. I know he means post-Brexit, but the principle is set potentially. Isn't that actually destabilising to the UK too!!0 -
Not EU citizens yet.not_on_fire said:
No. The attackers are not EU citizens.RobD said:0 -
Actually, it's still FPTP it's just there are only two horses in the race.David_Evershed said:
It's not First Past the Post though. Every vote counts.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
So getting NI and Scotland REMAINs up from 55% to 60% is worthwhile.
The evidence at the moment suggests Remain are trying to motivate their base to vote. That may change but spending money on wall to wall digital advertising at Canary Wharf is money than cannot be spent elsewhere.0 -
Double win!Monksfield said:
It's difficult to see that a vote for leave isn't a vote for the break up of the UK. Unless Scotland also votes for leave which seems unlikely. Wee Nicky has every right to hold a referendum and declare UDI as far as I can see.JamesM said:Hi all. I am a Leave supporter and thought Sarah Wollaston's comments were tricky for the Leave campaign, albeit I don't agree with her. That said, it hardly got a mention on the 6 o'clock news and we must remember most voters aren't sat on politicalbetting.com reading about the referendum all day.
My thought about Major and Blair heading to NI is that Major's comments on the news about Scotland is potentially creating a real hostage to fortune for the UK government in the future. The line from the UK government has been there is no case for a second referendum, yet Major said that if there is popular demand for one a government couldn't refuse. I know he means post-Brexit, but the principle is set potentially. Isn't that actually destabilising to the UK too!!0 -
It would be funny if the UK voted for remain and Scotland for leave.0
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Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.0 -
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.0 -
Mr. Dancer, Skyrim with a survival mod produces a totally different game, add in more realistic weight carrying and money actually having weight and the game is transformed. Strategies and tactics that used to work just no longer do so; More forward thinking is required and the game slows down a lot.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, if the rumours are true and Skyrim gets remastered for the PS4, with mod support, I might get it. If so, the Survival mode style mod could be of interest.
Have you played Fallout 4 on Survival mode yet? I was pissed off with Curie the other day. I expertly infiltrated a well-defended base, then she wandered off and got in a firefight, which led to my death.
Mr. Evershed, that's a good point.
It is no surprise that the game boxes such as PS4 are, belatedly, coming to understand and implement this, personalised, aspect of gaming. I have also no doubt that they will try and control and monetize it rather than allow the free for all one gets with PC Gaming. They will, in short, bugger it up for their customers.
Perhaps this is a metaphor for real life, game box players want safety, and the illusion of freedom (they are remainers). PC gamers are happy to accept the greater risks and greater benefits of a free world (they are leavers).
Anyway, I have still to touch FallOut4. One of my chums was much into it and I have watched him play, but it has never grabbed me. I think because I just could not see enough differnece between it and FallOut 3 and New Vegas. Certainly not enough to make we want to get out of my Sidney Cam special (aka Hawker Hurricane) and leave the multiplayer aerial battles over Kent anyway.0 -
Polling suggests that the outcome of such a Referendum would be much the same as in 2014,Monksfield said:
It's difficult to see that a vote for leave isn't a vote for the break up of the UK. Unless Scotland also votes for leave which seems unlikely. Wee Nicky has every right to hold a referendum and declare UDI as far as I can see.JamesM said:Hi all. I am a Leave supporter and thought Sarah Wollaston's comments were tricky for the Leave campaign, albeit I don't agree with her. That said, it hardly got a mention on the 6 o'clock news and we must remember most voters aren't sat on politicalbetting.com reading about the referendum all day.
My thought about Major and Blair heading to NI is that Major's comments on the news about Scotland is potentially creating a real hostage to fortune for the UK government in the future. The line from the UK government has been there is no case for a second referendum, yet Major said that if there is popular demand for one a government couldn't refuse. I know he means post-Brexit, but the principle is set potentially. Isn't that actually destabilising to the UK too!!0 -
I see the John and Tony act is leading the BBC etc with something about sarah and nothing about this obscure Laboru MP.
In the end though I can't see many people being swayed by BBC etc stories like this who are not probably going to vote remain anyway.
Large amounts of adverts in Canary Wharf ditto. The only thing it might do is get a few people to actually bother to turn up.
Meanwhile has anyone got any figures on how many people who have registered in recent times are already on the register. I gather 75% of people who registered between Christmas 2014 and election day were already on the register.
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Osborne up to his tricks again..
Vote Leave Media @Vote_LeaveMedia
Report from inside No11 bunker: GO to leak HMT preparations for dealing with 'financial panic' in order to spark ... financial panic. Genius0 -
Stumps, day 1 at Lords. England 279/6.
Betfair back prices Eng 1.5, SL 13, Draw 3.9.
Possibly some showers coming over the weekend so not too much laying the draw if you're that way inclined.
http://www.metcheck.com/UK/today.asp?zipcode=London City&locationID=57205&lat=51.5&lon=-0.1&findtype=0 -
Indeed. So have some faith in the Leave strategy. It is the one rattling, not being rattled.Casino_Royale said:
Actually, it's still FPTP it's just there are only two horses in the race.David_Evershed said:
It's not First Past the Post though. Every vote counts.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
So getting NI and Scotland REMAINs up from 55% to 60% is worthwhile.
The evidence at the moment suggests Remain are trying to motivate their base to vote. That may change but spending money on wall to wall digital advertising at Canary Wharf is money than cannot be spent elsewhere.
:-)0 -
If you could predict and back/lay all these moves you'd be a very rich man - but there is no guarantee the market will move your way at any point in time so you just have to do what you "think" is fair value.peter_from_putney said:
Rather more than a tad I would say -weejonnie said:Looks like leave coming back in a tad on betfair.
At midday LEAVE were 4.5 to back on the Betfair exchange, right now they are 3.9, that's a huge movement in just a few hours ...... I reckon that either OGH has been back in the market backing them, or there's a mighty favourable poll for them due out any time soon.
My sole bet here is "leave" £10 at 4.0, which seems more than fair to me.0 -
Do you seriously think Sindy wouldn't go through at the second iteration? I would expect Scottish Labour and SLD to join SNP in campaigning for Sindy in that circumstance and I could see it going through 60-40.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.
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Mr. Royale, sounds very Osborne.
Mr. Llama, I'm a console player and likely Leave voter. Your analogy is wrong.
I haven't played New Vegas, but Fallout 4 is a lot better than Fallout 3. Up to you, of course, but I rather like it, especially on Survival mode.0 -
I wonder how much the Farage line is because Labour's strong lead among ethnic minority voters show little or no sign of standing up for Remain?
It was mentioned by Lord Hayward yesterday and Cameron was made to look a completely out of touch fool in the TV debate by Harry Boparai.
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Yes but the elderly use them mostDavid_Evershed said:HYUFD said:
The elderly get postal votes in the earliest so they should favour Leave for nowPulpstar said:
One would expect postal vote returns to be more "Remain" based on the fact ABs use them the most, however they tend also to be used by older people which may cancel it out.Scott_P said:@thequentinletts: Heard an intriguing rumour last night about Out/In percentages in early postal-vote returns.
@thequentinletts: Further rumours reach me of postal vote early returns. They may explain the recent acceleration in activity by Downing St.
"Remain" is f*cked if it is behind on the postal count.
Don't most postal votes get sent back the day they are received so they don't get forgotten?
Even so some postal votes never get returned - 25% from memory at the last general election.0 -
They are - or rather, the local teams are. But sending two ex Prime Ministers to NI to scrape around for votes, and the unpopular chancellor to Scotland strikes me as desperation...HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.0 -
So much potential for anagrams with that range of letters...John_M said:
I thought we were xenophobes, not racists. Is it one of those or both? I suppose xenophobic racists has a certain cachet, though I'm sure racist xenophobes will have its adherents.Luckyguy1983 said:
Hahahaha - what did I say this morning?TGOHF said:
This guy ? He's a real asset.Scott_P said:He has been offered a job by No 10
@KateEMcCann: NEW: Khalid Mahmood, Brexit backing Labour MP, defecting to remain amid concerns abt tone on "immigration and race" https://t.co/bdcE38UEtS
Oh, wait...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186818/Labour-MP-spent-2-575-staying-riot-gold-marble-silk-hotel-girlfriend.html
"Labour MP spent £2,575 staying in 'riot of gold, marble and silk' hotel with girlfriend
Hell, what did I say at the very beginning of this campaign? I predicted the racism smears then. Same as UKIP in the GE. My only surprise is it's taken them this long.
Remain. So ugly. One day they might start selling the EU to us, though I shan't hold my breath.
Edit: Oops, I forgot, 'parochial racist xenophobes'. How silly of me.0 -
@Vote_LeaveMedia
MPs reporting that Whips are ringing round asking them to defect - No.10 must be really worried #VoteLeave
The remainer gloating on here seems to have quietened down here during the last hour. Although to be fair the whole thing was probably about as influential as a pub argument about the first round FA Cup Derby between Crystal Palace and Tooting and Mitcham United in 1975/0 -
Mr. Monksfield, that's a decision for Scots to make. I hope it wouldn't, but the idea we should submit to an unaccountable, undemocratic, bureaucratic power-grabbing monstrosity for fear of something that might happen is to be frit.
Edited extra bit: also, Quebec had two votes and didn't leave Canada.0 -
The act of a desperate man.Casino_Royale said:Osborne up to his tricks again..
Vote Leave Media @Vote_LeaveMedia
Report from inside No11 bunker: GO to leak HMT preparations for dealing with 'financial panic' in order to spark ... financial panic. Genius0 -
If YES couldn't win with the possibility of the £ and $100 a barrel , do you really think they could win at $50 a barrel and having to join the € ?Monksfield said:
Do you seriously think Sindy wouldn't go through at the second iteration? I would expect Scottish Labour and SLD to join SNP in campaigning for Sindy in that circumstance and I could see it going through 60-40.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.
Not a chance.0 -
That would be cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. RUK is a far bigger trading partner for Scotland than REU is.Monksfield said:
Do you seriously think Sindy wouldn't go through at the second iteration? I would expect Scottish Labour and SLD to join SNP in campaigning for Sindy in that circumstance and I could see it going through 60-40.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.0 -
Yes but one constituency so small rural areas are slightly less represented and big cities slightly more represented in the resultCasino_Royale said:
Actually, it's still FPTP it's just there are only two horses in the race.David_Evershed said:
It's not First Past the Post though. Every vote counts.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
So getting NI and Scotland REMAINs up from 55% to 60% is worthwhile.
The evidence at the moment suggests Remain are trying to motivate their base to vote. That may change but spending money on wall to wall digital advertising at Canary Wharf is money than cannot be spent elsewhere.0 -
The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"
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New Vegas is awesome with some very fun, colourful DLC which no doubt is super cheap now. I've put 90 hours into Fallout4 on one playthrough, and I'll play it again, but I think I prefer New Vegas.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, sounds very Osborne.
Mr. Llama, I'm a console player and likely Leave voter. Your analogy is wrong.
I haven't played New Vegas, but Fallout 4 is a lot better than Fallout 3. Up to you, of course, but I rather like it, especially on Survival mode.0 -
Recent polls show Scotland backing the Union even if BREXIT although that could change again though if England votes Leave it will effectively be saying Scotland can sod off anyway! If England votes Leave and the UK Remain that sentiment would be even more likelyMonksfield said:
Do you seriously think Sindy wouldn't go through at the second iteration? I would expect Scottish Labour and SLD to join SNP in campaigning for Sindy in that circumstance and I could see it going through 60-40.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.0 -
Yes, but as in any election there are swing areas that could go either way.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
If Remain were confident, I'd expect to see much more activity in the Home Counties.0 -
Fool me once etc! Hard to take them seriously when they have such a woeful track record on these sort of things.AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"0 -
Crude oil prices have doubled since February. Just in time for summer driving season. 'Twas ever thus. sigh0
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From HoC Report "86.0% of people who were sent a postal ballot pack voted, compared with 63.5% of those who were entitled to vote at a polling station."David_Evershed said:HYUFD said:
The elderly get postal votes in the earliest so they should favour Leave for nowPulpstar said:
One would expect postal vote returns to be more "Remain" based on the fact ABs use them the most, however they tend also to be used by older people which may cancel it out.Scott_P said:@thequentinletts: Heard an intriguing rumour last night about Out/In percentages in early postal-vote returns.
@thequentinletts: Further rumours reach me of postal vote early returns. They may explain the recent acceleration in activity by Downing St.
"Remain" is f*cked if it is behind on the postal count.
Don't most postal votes get sent back the day they are received so they don't get forgotten?
Even so some postal votes never get returned - 25% from memory at the last general election.
0 -
This is the organisation that predicted a moderate slowdown in 2008.AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"
Next.
(oh, and twenty years to recover to 2007 standards in 2009)0 -
I think that is just the economists shouting because no-one is listening, no?AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"
The thing that has always annoyed me about economics is that it is just history and sociology with a bit of (mostly basic) maths thrown in - it has no special insight on the unpredictable future above educated guessing and predictions.0 -
Note the 'could' - in other words bunkum.AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"0 -
Unfair. It's actually a good article and more balanced than you might think:chestnut said:
This is the organisation that predicted a moderate slowdown in 2008.AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"
Next.
" Being in the EU means that we have no control at all over immigration from the rest of the EU. Even if we avoided it, it still means being part of a club that has made mistakes as costly as introducing the euro. It means sharing some sovereignty. It means being part of the absurdly wasteful Common Agricultural Policy.
It is simply childish to suggest that there is no trade-off, that one side has all the answers. It is just untrue to say that we can control overall immigration if we stay in. It is equally untrue to say that we would have more funds to spend on the NHS if we came out — we would have less.
We are a rich country. The UK is either the fifth or ninth biggest economy in the world (depending on how you measure it). We could cope outside the EU. We can choose to accept a fall in our living standards to regain some sovereignty."
That doesn't strike me as being overly partisan, even if the headline is a tad clickbaity - let's face it, what isn't these days?
0 -
I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.0
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In your heartlands you should have a strong local presence to get your vote out. That frees you to send your 'Big Beasts' to areas that presence is lacking.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
Sending your generals to do the work of the infantry means you are simply trying to stop your front collapsing.
Example from the other side: Im campaigning for Leave in Hull / E Yorks we dont need Boris or anyone here - we the infantry are doing all the work, are advancing pretty much unopposed while mopping up pockets of Remain. We have no need for reinforcements.0 -
Of course, the Major/Blair thing is not necessarily aimed JUST at Northern Ireland. It could add to general British voters' unease about the "chaos" that might happen if we leave.0
-
I don't believe it will be as bad as they say, but the use of 'could' hardly means it must automatically be bunkum. Unless you can be 100% certain, which no one can, could is the only word you could use, surely?weejonnie said:
Note the 'could' - in other words bunkum.AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"0 -
EU funded hack sings for his supper. Sad.AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"0 -
The Home Counties will vote Leave, yougov this week had Leave ahead in the South but Remain 1% ahead overall, if there is a swing area it is the North West and maybe Wales not the Home CountiesCasino_Royale said:
Yes, but as in any election there are swing areas that could go either way.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
If Remain were confident, I'd expect to see much more activity in the Home Counties.0 -
The slavishly obedient are here as well.AlastairMeeks said:I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.
0 -
I suspect it's a sign they have more money than people.Casino_Royale said:
Actually, it's still FPTP it's just there are only two horses in the race.David_Evershed said:
It's not First Past the Post though. Every vote counts.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
So getting NI and Scotland REMAINs up from 55% to 60% is worthwhile.
The evidence at the moment suggests Remain are trying to motivate their base to vote. That may change but spending money on wall to wall digital advertising at Canary Wharf is money than cannot be spent elsewhere.0 -
Fantastic reason to Vote Leave. Giles Merritt, head of the Friends of Europe think tank in Brussels, says we have a chance to strike a blow for democracy and refound the whole EU on behalf of the peoples of Europe:
“The EU policy elites are in panic. If the British vote to leave the shock will be so ghastly that they will finally wake up and realize that they can no longer ignore demands for democratic reform,” he said.
“They may have to dissolve the EU as it is and try to reinvent it, both in order to bring the Brits back and because they fear that the whole political order will be swept away unless they do,” he said.
Mr Merritt said it is an error to suppose that the EU would carry on as a monolithic bloc able to dictate terms after a Brexit vote. “The British would have pricked the bubble. The Germans are deeply alarmed at how suddenly the mood is shifting everywhere,” he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/07/france-shuns-europe-as-brexit-revolt-spreads/
We simply MUST vote Leave. We have a chance to lead Europe and achieve the democratic reform we've always dreamed of.
Europe is relying on us.0 -
I'm sure they will be sble to set up free trade arrangements, all to their advantage of course, and with no downsidesSean_F said:
That would be cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. RUK is a far bigger trading partner for Scotland than REU is.Monksfield said:
Do you seriously think Sindy wouldn't go through at the second iteration? I would expect Scottish Labour and SLD to join SNP in campaigning for Sindy in that circumstance and I could see it going through 60-40.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.
0 -
Very few people are going to be converted this referendum. Concentrating on getting your vote out seems a sadly sensible strategy.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, but as in any election there are swing areas that could go either way.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
If Remain were confident, I'd expect to see much more activity in the Home Counties.0 -
Mr. Monksfield, I we vote leave then we would not only get the EU off our backs but also lose the Cameron Clique and Scotland as well? Sounds like a win-win-win to me,Monksfield said:
Do you seriously think Sindy wouldn't go through at the second iteration? I would expect Scottish Labour and SLD to join SNP in campaigning for Sindy in that circumstance and I could see it going through 60-40.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.
The only thing that could be better is if NI decided they would vote to join the Republic (assuming the RoI would have them, which I doubt), but I am not that optimistic. The NI political class and public servants know where their wages are paid from.
So what you see as a threat is to some of us a, "Yeah? Bring it on". I doubt that it would happen though even if Wales, NI and Scotland vote remain and England votes out.0 -
I for one as a Scot by birth would have voted no first time round but would vote for independence from a post Brexit England.TGOHF said:
If YES couldn't win with the possibility of the £ and $100 a barrel , do you really think they could win at $50 a barrel and having to join the € ?Monksfield said:
Do you seriously think Sindy wouldn't go through at the second iteration? I would expect Scottish Labour and SLD to join SNP in campaigning for Sindy in that circumstance and I could see it going through 60-40.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.
Not a chance.0 -
England shouldn't need the bat again ;-)Sandpit said:Stumps, day 1 at Lords. England 279/6.
Betfair back prices Eng 1.5, SL 13, Draw 3.9.
Possibly some showers coming over the weekend so not too much laying the draw if you're that way inclined.
http://www.metcheck.com/UK/today.asp?zipcode=London City&locationID=57205&lat=51.5&lon=-0.1&findtype=0 -
Well I have not seen Boris in Islington or Scotland as yet but he has been in the West Country a lot, Kipper heartland, so am not sure that followsYossariansChild said:
In your heartlands you should have a strong local presence to get your vote out. That frees you to send your 'Big Beasts' to areas that presence is lacking.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
Sending your generals to do the work of the infantry means you are simply trying to stop your front collapsing.
Example from the other side: Im campaigning for Leave in Hull / E Yorks we dont need Boris or anyone here - we the infantry are doing all the work, are advancing pretty much unopposed while mopping up pockets of Remain. We have no need for reinforcements.0 -
Nigel Dodds, DUP, has just been on LBC and he was absolutely furious with Blair and Major. Said their rhetoric was highly dangerous and should never have been allowed to happen.
What a state British politics is in at the moment. You've got Corbyn and McDonald destroying their party, to remake it in their own image and you've got the PM and Osborne trying to destroy the Conservative party to remake it into a modern pro-European party. I wonder who will still be standing at the end?
0 -
What are they not listening to?AlastairMeeks said:I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.
-1 -
I think it is just as likely that a vote for Remain is a vote for the break-up of the UK.Sean_F said:
Polling suggests that the outcome of such a Referendum would be much the same as in 2014,Monksfield said:
It's difficult to see that a vote for leave isn't a vote for the break up of the UK. Unless Scotland also votes for leave which seems unlikely. Wee Nicky has every right to hold a referendum and declare UDI as far as I can see.JamesM said:Hi all. I am a Leave supporter and thought Sarah Wollaston's comments were tricky for the Leave campaign, albeit I don't agree with her. That said, it hardly got a mention on the 6 o'clock news and we must remember most voters aren't sat on politicalbetting.com reading about the referendum all day.
My thought about Major and Blair heading to NI is that Major's comments on the news about Scotland is potentially creating a real hostage to fortune for the UK government in the future. The line from the UK government has been there is no case for a second referendum, yet Major said that if there is popular demand for one a government couldn't refuse. I know he means post-Brexit, but the principle is set potentially. Isn't that actually destabilising to the UK too!!
Why should Scotland or Wales stay in a small federation (the UK) if we can all belong to a large federation (EU) ?
The Czech and Slovak Republics are happy to be in the EU together, but they were not happy to be in Czechoslovakia.
The EU has increased the pressure to dismantle larger nations, like Spain or the UK, because there becomes little point to them.0 -
I'm not so sure: look at the polling trend since February.rcs1000 said:
Very few people are going to be converted this referendum. Concentrating on getting your vote out seems a sadly sensible strategy.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, but as in any election there are swing areas that could go either way.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
If Remain were confident, I'd expect to see much more activity in the Home Counties.
Remain had solid 20-30% leads last year.0 -
If Scotland genuinely wanted independence they would allow a vote for the English. The Scottish really do seem to labour under the misapprehension that the English are desperate to hang on to them.Monksfield said:
I for one as a Scot by birth would have voted no first time round but would vote for independence from a post Brexit England.TGOHF said:
If YES couldn't win with the possibility of the £ and $100 a barrel , do you really think they could win at $50 a barrel and having to join the € ?Monksfield said:
Do you seriously think Sindy wouldn't go through at the second iteration? I would expect Scottish Labour and SLD to join SNP in campaigning for Sindy in that circumstance and I could see it going through 60-40.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Monksfield, disagree entirely. There's no democratic mandate for Scotland to separate because the First Minister unilaterally decides it.
A Leave success (if Scotland votes Remain) could lead to a second referendum. It would not lead to automatically breaking up the UK.
Not a chance.0 -
Mr Meeks.David_Evershed said:
What are they not listening to?AlastairMeeks said:I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.
0 -
I'm listening, dear old thing.AlastairMeeks said:I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.
I'd have liked the author of the article you shared to be a bit more specific about the "seismic" part - quibbling over 'could' is silly.
I think it almost certain that BRExit would precipitate a recession that's already overdue. What I don't know is how deep a recession it might be.
If it's based around historical norms, that would mean a contraction of between 1.6% to 4.6%. I'm assuming that we're not going to equate it with 2008, which was a whopping 7.2% contraction.
The typical recovery period is between 10 and 13 quarters, let's call it 3 years.
Unless we've collectively gone cuckoo and believe in 'no more boom or bust', then it seems to me that this isn't an excessive price to pay. Admittedly, in the worst case it puts our economy back to the terrible, famine-haunted days of 2011, but I think we might just manage.0 -
Re Economists
If an economist saw a ten pound note on the pavement he would not bother to pick it up - because if it was real someone would already have picked it up.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.
That's my point. If Remain were on course for a solid win the stockbroker belt would be getting attention as well as the core cities.HYUFD said:
The Home Counties will vote Leave, yougov this week had Leave ahead in the South but Remain 1% ahead overall, if there is a swing area it is the North West and maybe Wales not the Home CountiesCasino_Royale said:
Yes, but as in any election there are swing areas that could go either way.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
If Remain were confident, I'd expect to see much more activity in the Home Counties.0 -
Alastair.David_Evershed said:
What are they not listening to?AlastairMeeks said:I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.
0 -
Eastern England is Kipper heartland. West Country used to be Lib Dem heartland swung to the Tories and seems the perfect place for Boris to pick up votes for Leave.HYUFD said:
Well I have not seen Boris in Islington or Scotland as yet but he has been in the West Country a lot, Kipper heartland, so am not sure that followsYossariansChild said:
In your heartlands you should have a strong local presence to get your vote out. That frees you to send your 'Big Beasts' to areas that presence is lacking.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
Sending your generals to do the work of the infantry means you are simply trying to stop your front collapsing.
Example from the other side: Im campaigning for Leave in Hull / E Yorks we dont need Boris or anyone here - we the infantry are doing all the work, are advancing pretty much unopposed while mopping up pockets of Remain. We have no need for reinforcements.0 -
I must congratulate remain on allowing.the Blair creature to lead tonights news telling us to vote in favour of staying iin.
That they have let him loose in such a prominent way shows that they are desperate, never mind where he went to pontificate0 -
I'm off. Hope the debate goes well for Leave, not sure if I'll watch, though.0
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My daughter got another email from StrongerIn today, asking for a donation. They claim that Vote Leave have £3million more to spend than they do.Casino_Royale said:
Actually, it's still FPTP it's just there are only two horses in the race.David_Evershed said:
It's not First Past the Post though. Every vote counts.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
So getting NI and Scotland REMAINs up from 55% to 60% is worthwhile.
The evidence at the moment suggests Remain are trying to motivate their base to vote. That may change but spending money on wall to wall digital advertising at Canary Wharf is money than cannot be spent elsewhere.
(Incidentally, she is unsure where they got her email address from, as she has not signed up to support any campaign given that she is not yet old enough to vote).
0 -
I think my criticism of economists was fairAlastairMeeks said:I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.
0 -
@David_Evershed The near-unanimous warnings of the professionals with the most expertise that "There is a palpable fear that something really quite grim for the British economy could follow a Brexit."
You can point to past prediction failures of economists but to airily wave away such unanimity about such a dangerous risk is quite something.0 -
The article is actually rather more nuanced about the pros and cons than the heading implies.AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"0 -
Wow. I know it takes some doing, but I have never thought anything I have read in the Telegraph or the Guardian worse than I think this Mcternan piece: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/09/if-jeremy-corbyn-had-stopped-tony-blair-invading-iraq-dictators/0
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Yes because if remain were doing well they would target these areas to try and get a big enough victory to close the issue down for a generationCasino_Royale said:AlastairMeeks said:I see the "la la la I'm not listening" brigade is out in force tonight.
That's my point. If Remain were on course for a solid win the stockbroker belt would be getting attention as well as the core cities.HYUFD said:
The Home Counties will vote Leave, yougov this week had Leave ahead in the South but Remain 1% ahead overall, if there is a swing area it is the North West and maybe Wales not the Home CountiesCasino_Royale said:
Yes, but as in any election there are swing areas that could go either way.HYUFD said:
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is keyCasino_Royale said:
Precisely.YossariansChild said:'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
If Remain were confident, I'd expect to see much more activity in the Home Counties.0 -
Strikes me as overly partisan. Even the very biased Treasury forecasts show the UK living standards going up (but slower) in the event of Brexit. Not falling.John_M said:
Unfair. It's actually a good article and more balanced than you might think:chestnut said:
This is the organisation that predicted a moderate slowdown in 2008.AlastairMeeks said:The economists strike back:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html
The heading and sub-header sum it up:
"Paul Johnson: Leavers may not like economists but we are right about Brexit
While few can predict how Britain would fare long-term, if we go it alone the immediate impact could be seismic"
Next.
" Being in the EU means that we have no control at all over immigration from the rest of the EU. Even if we avoided it, it still means being part of a club that has made mistakes as costly as introducing the euro. It means sharing some sovereignty. It means being part of the absurdly wasteful Common Agricultural Policy.
It is simply childish to suggest that there is no trade-off, that one side has all the answers. It is just untrue to say that we can control overall immigration if we stay in. It is equally untrue to say that we would have more funds to spend on the NHS if we came out — we would have less.
We are a rich country. The UK is either the fifth or ninth biggest economy in the world (depending on how you measure it). We could cope outside the EU. We can choose to accept a fall in our living standards to regain some sovereignty."
That doesn't strike me as being overly partisan, even if the headline is a tad clickbaity - let's face it, what isn't these days?
When you compare UK GDP/capita to other non EU western English speaking nations (eg Australia, Canada, New Zealand and USA) there is zero evidence the EU has overly inflated our GDP per capita.0
