@PickardJE: Apparently the Labour MP joining the Out campaign is none other than....John Cryer, chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Very credible.
I wonder whether the BBC will choose to describe him as a "senior" Labour MP? And give as much prominence to his declaring for Leave as they gave to the declaration of a Conservative MP for Remain today? Or even report his joining the Leave campaign at all.
@John_M It's a newspaper article not a ministerial briefing. It's trying to explain to lay readers the risks.
The IFS have already given their detailed economic analysis. For their pains Vote Leave accused them of being in the pay of the EU.
Well, given that the front page of the report acknowledged that it was funded by the ESRC through the 'UK in a changing Europe', it's at least a point.
I think we'll have to disagree; it doesn't quantify the risks in any meaningful way, lay reader or not. It just asserts there are risks.
I don't have a particular issue with the IFS report per se. My concern is that modelling has an inglorious record (to save others trawling through the report, the forecasts for Britains GDP in 2030 range from -9.5% to +0.6% compared to noBrexit, ie the opportunity cost ranges from ~.75% p.a. to very slightly positive). If financial models were better, I'd have more confidence in them.
The intro tickled me where he basically says we all got the 2008 crash wrong, but we all agree now, so listen to us this time.
Paul Johnson has spent his whole career in the civil service, think-tanks, or academia, including several big papers during the New Labour years.
I'm not saying he's been bought, or paid for, but that does breed a certain kind of thinking. And the IFS, in particular, has a real hold over Government, despite reaching questionable conclusions in the past. For example, it has came out basically saying marriage doesn't matter a few years ago.
The Spectator was right in 2011:
"There is no great conspiracy here, but a simple truth: organisations which rely on tax money will always make the case for higher taxes. The ‘institutes’ funded by research grants (which means, usually, tax money) will always argue for more expensive meddling by the state. These groups dislike the idea that society will be better and stronger if people are given greater freedom, and allowed to keep more of their money. Freedom, to the institutes, is messy and chaotic. There must be projects, judged by complicated spreadsheets, with billions in taxpayers’ money behind them.
The most striking example is the Institute for Fiscal Studies. It has tremendous influence over government life, and in the era where Gordon Brown was concealing basic facts from the people whose money he was spending, it was relied upon to give a clearer picture. But the sheer volume and quality of its reports gave it power over the government that is not, even now, understood. Its device for measuring poverty — to calculate how many millions were above and below a ‘poverty line’ — took over the entire debate. Instead of tackling poverty, Brown tried to manipulate the IFS spreadsheets, so those just beneath the poverty line could be nudged above it and described as being ‘lifted out of poverty’. Those affected would be amazed to find themselves so described."
Leave have a street by street breakdown of areas of potential support based on a star system. We are methodically working our way down the stars building support.
Remain seem stuck - their campaign has too many colonels and not enough infantry.
(Im not saying Leave will win: whilst im gaining in confidence I still think we'll lose!)
@PickardJE: Apparently the Labour MP joining the Out campaign is none other than....John Cryer, chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Very credible.
I wonder whether the BBC will choose to describe him as a "senior" Labour MP? And give as much prominence to his declaring for Leave as they gave to the declaration of a Conservative MP for Remain today? Or even report his joining the Leave campaign at all.
'if you want to know who's winning look at where they are campaigning.'
Remains efforts today in N Ireland and Scotland would be like a Tory focus in Surrey or Labour in Liverpool during a GE. Remain think they are losing. Thats todays big story.
Precisely.
NI, Canary Wharf, Scotland.
Look where Remain are campaigning and what they are doing, not what they are saying.
I would expect Leave to be campaigning in English and Welsh rural areas and market towns now above all too, this is not a FPTP election won by a few suburban marginals in the Midlands and Essex, it is a referendum decided by the winner of the popular vote so maximising turnout in your heartlands is key
In your heartlands you should have a strong local presence to get your vote out. That frees you to send your 'Big Beasts' to areas that presence is lacking.
Sending your generals to do the work of the infantry means you are simply trying to stop your front collapsing.
Example from the other side: Im campaigning for Leave in Hull / E Yorks we dont need Boris or anyone here - we the infantry are doing all the work, are advancing pretty much unopposed while mopping up pockets of Remain. We have no need for reinforcements.
Well I have not seen Boris in Islington or Scotland as yet but he has been in the West Country a lot, Kipper heartland, so am not sure that follows
Eastern England is Kipper heartland. West Country used to be Lib Dem heartland swung to the Tories and seems the perfect place for Boris to pick up votes for Leave.
In the 2014 Euro elections UKIP won 32% in ths
In 2015 GE the SW was UKIPs 2nd worse region:
2015 English regions % voting UKIP
North East 16.7 Eastern 16.2 Yorks+Hum 16.0 E Mids 15.8 W Mids 15.7 South East 14.7 North West 13.6 459 100 votes South West 13.6 384 500 votes London 8.1
Seems Leave are very confident if Boris is campaigning in UKIPs joint second worse region..
The 2015
Leave could win the South West and still lose UK wide by several percentage points, Leave has to win there, if Boris was campaigning in the NW which is a real swing region then you may have more of a point.
As I have just showed you in 2014 UKIP won 5% more in the SW than they got nationally and even in 2015 despite eurosceptics tactically voting for the Tories UKIP still got 0.7% more in the SouthWest than they did nationally so it is fair to say it clearly leans Leave
Leave have a street by street breakdown of areas of potential support based on a star system. We are methodically working our way down the stars building support.
Remain seem stuck - their campaign has too many colonels and not enough infantry.
(Im not saying Leave will win: whilst im gaining in confidence I still think we'll lose!)
Interesting. If Leave did manage to pull this off against the odds it would make Lynton's unexpected victory last year look small fry.
@PickardJE: Apparently the Labour MP joining the Out campaign is none other than....John Cryer, chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Very credible.
I wonder whether the BBC will choose to describe him as a "senior" Labour MP? And give as much prominence to his declaring for Leave as they gave to the declaration of a Conservative MP for Remain today? Or even report his joining the Leave campaign at all.
I think a defection from one side to another is more of a story than someone simply declaring they are for leave/remain.
As I have just showed you in 2014 UKIP won 5% more in the SW than they got nationally and even in 2015 despite eurosceptics tactically voting for the Tories UKIP still got 0.7% more in the SouthWest than they did nationally so it is fair to say it clearly leans Leave
I don´t think the EU had anything to do with it, I´m afraid. People were voting against the Government of the day - and at that time the Lib Dems were part of the government, thought in recent months most Tories seem to have fogotten that.
So UKIP were the obvious repository of the protest vote. Nothing to do with the EU at all.
However, we shall see whois right in a fortnight´s time.
I would point out that that is a counterfactual. Germany's economy has prospered enormously from Euro membership. It's entirely possible that the UK's economy would have benefitted enormously.
Comments
Remain seem stuck - their campaign has too many colonels and not enough infantry.
(Im not saying Leave will win: whilst im gaining in confidence I still think we'll lose!)
You expect balance?
Wrong. It's the European Union we're debating, not the continent.
Not bad at all, but his eyes wandered a lot.
Always.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1371736.stm
http://www.economist.com/node/199382
Andrea Leadsom doing the reassurance on the economics and making an appeal to women too.
So UKIP were the obvious repository of the protest vote. Nothing to do with the EU at all.
However, we shall see whois right in a fortnight´s time.
Irrespective, I'd point out that - since the beginning of the Eurozone - its job creation record has been rather better than, for example, the US or China. See: http://www.thstailwinds.com/the-labour-market-labyrinth/