politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independence Day is going to be mentioned a lot in the run

Casino_Royale said:

welshowl said:

SeanT said:

The £ has just plunged

http://news.forexlive.com/!/brexit-poll-sinks-gbp-in-early-trading-as-liquidity-arrives-20160605

Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.

I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.

We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.

So does it really matter?

If you are a business whose costs are primarily in sterling but sales based on long term contracts are in foreign currencies you either have an enormous risk to currency swings or are forced to have major hedging exposure which a concomitant balance sheet issue. The entire aerospace industry, for example.

HYUFD said:

Moses_ said:

Gonna be a landslide for Remain now

Eddie Izzard Joins Calls To Reject Brexit
The comedian backs Remain during the South Bank Sky Arts Awards ceremony.

http://news.sky.com/story/1707379/eddie-izzard-joins-calls-to-reject-brexit

Well he did back the winning side in indyref!

He also backed AV.

Casino_Royale said:

welshowl said:

SeanT said:

The £ has just plunged

http://news.forexlive.com/!/brexit-poll-sinks-gbp-in-early-trading-as-liquidity-arrives-20160605

Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.

I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.

We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.

So does it really matter?

Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Moses_ said:

Gonna be a landslide for Remain now

Eddie Izzard Joins Calls To Reject Brexit
The comedian backs Remain during the South Bank Sky Arts Awards ceremony.

http://news.sky.com/story/1707379/eddie-izzard-joins-calls-to-reject-brexit

He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics

You are joking right? In 2020, it will be Eddie Izzard MP...

I rarely listen to any celebrity and take little notice of them, but he would make a good labour MP by the sounds of it

BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.

Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.

'Kin Hell the Telegraph and Eurosceptic Tories have lost it.

Dave's a bad man for criticising Boris and campaigning alongside the Greens and Labour.

But Boris is a top egg for criticising Dave whilst campaigning along side UKIP and Labour

edmundintokyo said:

SeanT said:

welshowl said:

NickPalmer said:

EPG said:

Don't laugh immediately, but Britain needs to have more referendums.

Swiss and Irish have referendums all the time about European and other topics, and they don't seem to get as bitter. Maybe people accept that they will often be on the opposite side to friends and colleagues.

There's a lot in that. And there's a well-accepted tradition that strong losers get concessions - e.g. after 40% voted to abolish the armed forces, the Government acknowledged the concern by reducing the military budget.

Presumably the equivalent would be if a Brexit government followed a narrow win by becoming closely aligned through the EEA, or Cameron won and announced a programme of robust scepticism.

The other charm of the Swiss system is that it gives small or extreme groups something constructive to do, since the tradition is that every proposal is considered on its merits, not on whether you like the proponents. For instance, the Basel Communist Party (vote share less than 0.5%) successfully got a proposal through to halt further development of inner-city car parks on environmental grounds.

By the way, enjoyed Benedict on the last thread arguing that George Galloway's motivation for supporting Leave is his passion for democracy. You sure about that?

Yes I agree. I think the lack of any kind of referendum on "Europe" for over 40 years is a major driver of Leave's passion. I think personally having one on the Lisbon treaty would've served us all well. There would be less call to have this one at all, and less "this is our only chance in a lifetime" about it for Leavers (which perversely might've helped Remain). Whatever happens it would do the winning side well to note that the other side had sincerely held views that should be taken into account in terms of maybe not leaving too far if Leave win and not integrating any further should Remain win, assuming it is pretty close either way which looks likely ( further opinion polling disasters as a caveat).

Absolutely right. All this sturm und drang could have been avoided if europhiles (like NPXMP) hadn't been such a bunch of devious shits, and had given us a referendum earlier, as they so often promised to do.

We could have kicked the Lisbon Treaty into touch and the EU might have reformed in a more democratic manner.

Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?

Not sure, but we should have got something tangible for all those vetoes we threw away in Lisbon.

Casino_Royale said:

MarkSenior said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

welshowl said:

SeanT said:

The £ has just plunged

http://news.forexlive.com/!/brexit-poll-sinks-gbp-in-early-trading-as-liquidity-arrives-20160605

Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.

I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.

We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.

So does it really matter?

Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.

It would make the cost of your Thai whores go up .

Senior moment.

Yes wrong Sean

MarkSenior said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

welshowl said:

SeanT said:

The £ has just plunged

http://news.forexlive.com/!/brexit-poll-sinks-gbp-in-early-trading-as-liquidity-arrives-20160605

Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.

I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.

We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.

So does it really matter?

Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.

Should change your name to "Mark Senile".

SeanT said:

PlatoSaid said:

Boris

You must Vote to leave the EU or wake up with the worst hangover in history

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/you-must-vote-to-leave-the-eu-or-wake-up-with-the-worst-hangover/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

REMAIN will narrowly win, then the EU will carry on grinding our democracy into dust, and the people will feel ashamed and remorseful, and they will take their revenge on Cameron and Osborne. It will be like the Scots post indyref, but much much worse, as the Scots, at least, got more powers following NO. We will have more powers taken away from us following IN.
I do not see how REMAINIANS can possibly avoid this. The only hope for them - as career politicians - is that they lose.

If REMAIN win, there will however be so many red lines drawn up which the EU will break and the LEAVE newspapers will point out each and every minor breech with the cry "you promised us this would not happen". Buckets of smelly stuff chucked over which ever unfortunate politician was in office at that time. REMAINers think that life will return back to what it was, but it will not.

Did someone mention Independence Day?

https://twitter.com/andyparmo/status/590567719789015040

SeanT said:

The £ has just plunged

http://news.forexlive.com/!/brexit-poll-sinks-gbp-in-early-trading-as-liquidity-arrives-20160605

"Plunged" is a bit strong ..... I would suggest instead slipped ..... by less than one third of one per cent.

welshowl said:

Yes I agree. I think the lack of any kind of referendum on "Europe" for over 40 years is a major driver of Leave's passion. I think personally having one on the Lisbon treaty would've served us all well. There would be less call to have this one at all, and less "this is our only chance in a lifetime" about it for Leavers (which perversely might've helped Remain). Whatever happens it would do the winning side well to note that the other side had sincerely held views that should be taken into account in terms of maybe not leaving too far if Leave win and not integrating any further should Remain win, assuming it is pretty close either way which looks likely ( further opinion polling disasters as a caveat).

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

The lack of passion on the remain side is quite telling when it comes to judging sincerity, when people are left pitching staying as the least worst option or because they don't want the Tory party to possibly fall into the hands of IDS or something stupid like that then it's not exactly difficult to see why people don't believe them to be sincere in their belief that the EU is and should remain as part of our future. It's also quite telling that the true passionate EUphiles have been told to keep their mouths shut because their federalism argument is extremely toxic for remain, if the remain side gave even a hint that they are in favour of the UK becoming part of the European state then leave would seize on any comments and win the referendum with it.

Finally, on sincerity, the main argument that is being put across by the remain side is that we should avoid a possible 2-4 point GDP drop that may come with a leave vote, given that in 2008 we suffered a 7 point GDP drop and we're still here and still standing tall and still one of the strongest developed economies in the world the idea that leaving the EU and the 2-4 point GDP drop will cause our nation to become a third world backwater comes across as complete fantasy let alone having any kind of sincerity.

They look, sound like and probably are insincere, for the most part. Those who do sincerely believe in the EU are being kept quiet because the public have no appetite for any further integration.

Barbara Castle and Ted Heath now on at the Union debate

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SeanT said:

PlatoSaid said:

Boris

You must Vote to leave the EU or wake up with the worst hangover in history

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/you-must-vote-to-leave-the-eu-or-wake-up-with-the-worst-hangover/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

REMAIN will narrowly win, then the EU will carry on grinding our democracy into dust, and the people will feel ashamed and remorseful, and they will take their revenge on Cameron and Osborne. It will be like the Scots post indyref, but much much worse, as the Scots, at least, got more powers following NO. We will have more powers taken away from us following IN.
I do not see how REMAINIANS can possibly avoid this. The only hope for them - as career politicians - is that they lose.

If REMAIN win, there will however be so many red lines drawn up which the EU will break and the LEAVE newspapers will point out each and every minor breech with the cry "you promised us this would not happen". Buckets of smelly stuff chucked over which ever unfortunate politician was in office at that time. REMAINers think that life will return back to what it was, but it will not.

Problem is it will be a gradual chipping away at our sovereignty. This is done deliberately to make the case for another referendum weaker. For example, finding out that we don't have a complete opt out from the European Public Prosecutor's Office will not trigger another referendum. There will be some grumbling but noone is going to call a referendum over it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

'Kin Hell the Telegraph and Eurosceptic Tories have lost it.

Dave's a bad man for criticising Boris and campaigning alongside the Greens and Labour.

But Boris is a top egg for criticising Dave whilst campaigning along side UKIP and Labour

Did you expect a fair fight from the Eurosceptic press?

weejonnie said:

BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.

Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.

Operation Bagration was destroying German Army Group Centre as the D day landings went on. After that it was seemingly inevitable that Germany would collapse.

Though the Brusilov offensive nearly exactly 100 years ago today was also an extraordinary feat of Generalship. Hard to believe how the Tsarist Russian forces would collapse just 6 months later. Reverses in war soon happen.

edmundintokyo said:

SeanT said:

welshowl said:

NickPalmer said:

EPG said:

Don't laugh immediately, but Britain needs to have more referendums.

Swiss and Irish have referendums all the time about European and other topics, and they don't seem to get as bitter. Maybe people accept that they will often be on the opposite side to friends and colleagues.

There's a lot in that. And there's a well-accepted tradition that strong losers get concessions - e.g. after 40% voted to abolish the armed forces, the Government acknowledged the concern by reducing the military budget.

Presumably the equivalent would be if a Brexit government followed a narrow win by becoming closely aligned through the EEA, or Cameron won and announced a programme of robust scepticism.

The other charm of the Swiss system is that it gives small or extreme groups something constructive to do, since the tradition is that every proposal is considered on its merits, not on whether you like the proponents. For instance, the Basel Communist Party (vote share less than 0.5%) successfully got a proposal through to halt further development of inner-city car parks on environmental grounds.

By the way, enjoyed Benedict on the last thread arguing that George Galloway's motivation for supporting Leave is his passion for democracy. You sure about that?

Yes I agree. I think the lack of any kind of referendum on "Europe" for over 40 years is a major driver of Leave's passion. I think personally having one on the Lisbon treaty would've served us all well. There would be less call to have this one at all, and less "this is our only chance in a lifetime" about it for Leavers (which perversely might've helped Remain). Whatever happens it would do the winning side well to note that the other side had sincerely held views that should be taken into account in terms of maybe not leaving too far if Leave win and not integrating any further should Remain win, assuming it is pretty close either way which looks likely ( further opinion polling disasters as a caveat).

Absolutely right. All this sturm und drang could have been avoided if europhiles (like NPXMP) hadn't been such a bunch of devious shits, and had given us a referendum earlier, as they so often promised to do.

We could have kicked the Lisbon Treaty into touch and the EU might have reformed in a more democratic manner.

Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?

Keeping our veto on internal markets for one.

69% of Telegraph readers back Brexit. The way they have been reporting the campaign surprised it is not 100%

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Moses_ said:

Gonna be a landslide for Remain now

Eddie Izzard Joins Calls To Reject Brexit
The comedian backs Remain during the South Bank Sky Arts Awards ceremony.

http://news.sky.com/story/1707379/eddie-izzard-joins-calls-to-reject-brexit

He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics

You are joking right? In 2020, it will be Eddie Izzard MP...

I rarely listen to any celebrity and take little notice of them, but he would make a good labour MP by the sounds of it

He's a bats**t crazy, champagne socialist who doesn't know the first thing about economics?

Check, check, check.

He's believed to want to stand for Mayor of London four years hence, should Khan decide for any reason (e.g. to become Prime Minister) to stand down.
God help us!

saddened said:

Moses_ said:

Gonna be a landslide for Remain now

Eddie Izzard Joins Calls To Reject Brexit
The comedian backs Remain during the South Bank Sky Arts Awards ceremony.

http://news.sky.com/story/1707379/eddie-izzard-joins-calls-to-reject-brexit

Well that's remain fecked. That man definitely has the reek of death about any campaign he's involved with.

He backed Better Together in Scotland, his referendum record is better than his general election record, even if he did back AV

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?

Not sure, but we should have got something tangible for all those vetoes we threw away in Lisbon.

If you're trying to make changes, you don't do it by preserving a veto on everything and anything by Luxembourg or Estonia.

Yes you do if you're trying to ensure that it is awkward to do anything and we are the squeeky wheel that needs more grease. That's precisely how we got the rebate. When was the last time Luxembourg was the squeeky wheel?

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Moses_ said:

Gonna be a landslide for Remain now

Eddie Izzard Joins Calls To Reject Brexit
The comedian backs Remain during the South Bank Sky Arts Awards ceremony.

http://news.sky.com/story/1707379/eddie-izzard-joins-calls-to-reject-brexit

He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics

You are joking right? In 2020, it will be Eddie Izzard MP...

I rarely listen to any celebrity and take little notice of them, but he would make a good labour MP by the sounds of it

He's a bats**t crazy, champagne socialist who doesn't know the first thing about economics?
Check, check, check.

What is it about people that label themselves as "BIG", that they are bats**t crazy, champagne socialists?

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

england win the world cup!

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

Please, please do some canvassing for Remain or help out on a street stall.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Moses_ said:

Gonna be a landslide for Remain now

Eddie Izzard Joins Calls To Reject Brexit
The comedian backs Remain during the South Bank Sky Arts Awards ceremony.

http://news.sky.com/story/1707379/eddie-izzard-joins-calls-to-reject-brexit

He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics

You are joking right? In 2020, it will be Eddie Izzard MP...

I rarely listen to any celebrity and take little notice of them, but he would make a good labour MP by the sounds of it

He's a bats**t crazy, champagne socialist who doesn't know the first thing about economics?
Check, check, check.

What is it about people that label themselves as "BIG", that they are bats**t crazy, champagne socialists?

Hope you are not referring to me. I am a conservative who has been involved directly in GE campaigns in the 70, 80, 90 and 2010, though only joined the party this year to have a vote on DC succession

SeanT said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

weejonnie said:

BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.

Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.

What I don't get is Stalin insisting on a much earlier D-Day (say summer 1943). If that happened, wouldn't the Western Allies have reached Berlin first, and maybe even Warsaw?

I think Stalin was quite worried about losing.

The Russians had suffered a severe defeat at Kharkov in Spring 1943. They weren't confident of victory till after Kursk.

HYUFD said:

saddened said:

Moses_ said:

Gonna be a landslide for Remain now

Eddie Izzard Joins Calls To Reject Brexit
The comedian backs Remain during the South Bank Sky Arts Awards ceremony.

http://news.sky.com/story/1707379/eddie-izzard-joins-calls-to-reject-brexit

Well that's remain fecked. That man definitely has the reek of death about any campaign he's involved with.

He backed Better Together in Scotland, his referendum record is better than his general election record, even if he did back AV

"man"? "his"? I thought that the person describes themselves as transgender?

'This is the baggage you have to deal with. I am transgender - it doesn't go away. But if I don't wear make-up for five years then it's my fucking life"
http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2001/may/27/features.magazine27

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

I am not a drug addled lunatic and am not expecting an economic shock. As I've said to you before.

I sincerely believe the UK has it within our wits to be a rip roaring success whether we stay or leave and that the greatest risk to that is Labour regaining power. I certainly do not regard failure to be a matter of "when" not "if".

Alastair thinks all Leavers are lunatics.

You should know that by now.

Anyway, must sign-off for the night. Early start tomorrow.

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you not mean if?

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

"Whether we could be successful outside the European Union is not the question" David Cameron October 2015.

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?

Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.

I'm suggesting that's 2-4% lost that needs to be recovered where Leave have no clear plan other than Leaving is the right thing to do. It's the act of honking cretins to volunteer for such a drop on ideological grounds.

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?

Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.

The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers

Heath cheered as he gets up to speak

Would anyone really notice if GDP in 2030 was 129% of it's current level, as opposed to 136%.

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?

Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.

Indeed and those are rather gloomy, pessimistic projections by organisations opposing the change.

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

This may surprise you, but I have thought about this long and properly. It's not my future I am deciding, it is the future of my older daughter Lucy.

I have to compare it to the future of her sister Ruby, in Sydney. Right now I see a much brighter future for Ruby. This is partly thanks to the stagnant, non-existent democracy of the EU.

I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.

But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.

LEAVE.

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

MarkSenior said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

welshowl said:

SeanT said:

The £ has just plunged

http://news.forexlive.com/!/brexit-poll-sinks-gbp-in-early-trading-as-liquidity-arrives-20160605

Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.

I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.

We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.

So does it really matter?

Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.

How did the bridge go BTW

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

peter_from_putney said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.

Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.

Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

Ouch! ..... Chocks away.

Wealthy out of touch laywers like Meeks and TSE!

I'm a working class Northerner.

"But it's not who you are underneath. It's what you do that defines you!" - Batman Begins.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sean_F said:

Would anyone really notice if GDP in 2030 was 129% of it's current level, as opposed to 136%.

No but who can tell what it will be in 2030, that is where I agree that forward projections to 2030 have too many variables to forecast accurately

The treasury changes its forecasts between the Autumn Statement and the Budget - hence everyone with an ounce of common sense ignores any 'long range' forecasts - especially as they tend to have an asymptote of 2% p/a growth.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

And when it doesn't work?

Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?

I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?

Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?

2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?

Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.

The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers

Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.

HYUFD said:

Heath cheered as he gets up to speak

That must have been a first!

This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?

John "30%" Major, no?

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm suggesting that's 2-4% lost that needs to be recovered where Leave have no clear plan other than Leaving is the right thing to do. It's the act of honking cretins to volunteer for such a drop on ideological grounds.

So no, we wouldn't be permanently stuck in a low or zero growth environment. That's all you needed to say. You would risk the existence of this nation state or a much larger future shock in order for stability today. That's a trade-off most people in the leave camp are not willing to make. You can't seem to understand that not everyone is as short-termist and self-centred as you are, yes leave may result in a short term GDP drop (and for me some level of lesser job security given the industry I work in) but it secures our future as a nation in the long term. Your outlook is more cretinous than ours, you would give up our long term future in order for some level of short term stability (not even a gain, just stability). It's quite surprising you are able to find the courage to walk out of your house in the morning given the state of fear you seem to live in.

I don't see the existence of this nation at stake. I regard the rhetoric of Leavers as so ludicrously overblown as to be offensive rather than laughable and the active hostility to expert opinion to be the culmination of the dumbing down of public discourse that is exemplified by Big Brother. There is a rational case for Leave but as I expected it has been capsized by the fearful introverted xenophobic case.

https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/739572058649153536

Sunil_Prasannan said:

This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?

John "30%" Major, no?

Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' Major

Ted Heath saying that the real divide is between those who want to stay with the nation state and those who want to move beyond it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?

John "30%" Major, no?

Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' Major

It is amazing that he is both the most and least popular PM ever.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?

John "30%" Major, no?

Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' Major

Then within 5 years squandered that good will shown to him by the electorate