politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've updated the thread with the Observer report of the poll

The Observer have rounded DOWN the LEAVE %.

42.6 REMAIN
40.9 LEAVE

You need to learn to read, they haven't done that.

Opinium say Remain are ahead by 2%

The Observer say LEAVE are ahead by 3%

Um, I was checking to see if you were still awake, Exalted One.

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

MoS

Consistently a different editorial line.

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

The same MoS that demonised Farage last year and has been consistently pro Remain for weeks to the extent I know of people that have stopped buying it.

Just looks like CCHQ have released the next wheeze in project fesr to me

williamglenn said:

BenedictWhite said:

williamglenn said:

BenedictWhite said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

What does he know...

@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe

Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.

I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundaries

People like to make a thing of it on here.

All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?

Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?

It applies to all citizens that have settled not all that could. We would assume that works both ways.

That's a supposition, not a fact.

Are you saying that it applies to all that could have settled then?

williamglenn said:

BenedictWhite said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

What does he know...

@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe

Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.

I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundaries

People like to make a thing of it on here.

All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?

Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?

I think this shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the convention by those making the claims. The convention applies to the contracted parties (the countries) in the treaty not necessarily to the individual citizens of the countries. If the UK were to withdraw from the treaties (which they would be doing as part of the Leave process under Article 50) then the rights accrued under those treaties would be lost unless covered in some other way. Basically those saying British citizens would still be covered are wrong.

RobD said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

Mortimer said:

Literally everything else doesn't seem to be working for Remain.

That's what the Yes campaign said.

Then lost by 10 points

Yes. That's for two reasons.

1. A more positive campaign for the Union.

2. The vow.

I await seeing a repetition.

Did 1) actually happen? I though the complaint was that it was relentlessly negative?

At the very end a little. The relentlessly negative bit I think helped yes more than no.

BenedictWhite said:

williamglenn said:

BenedictWhite said:

williamglenn said:

BenedictWhite said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

What does he know...

@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe

Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.

I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundaries

People like to make a thing of it on here.

All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?

Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?

It applies to all citizens that have settled not all that could. We would assume that works both ways.

That's a supposition, not a fact.

Are you saying that it applies to all that could have settled then?

I'm saying that if it is the case that rights acquired by treaty must be grandfathered then it would apply to all who have the right to settle at the moment the treaty is abrogated. In other words, people citing the Vienna Convention to reassure people about the consequences of Brexit should be careful what they wish for.

Off Topic

Re: California Primary:

The Daily Telegraph reports:

"It was meant to be her proudest moment yet: a victorious march to the history books as the first woman presidential nominee of the United States.

Instead the finale of the primary election season may prove to be a day Hillary Clinton would rather forget. As the eight remaining states prepare to vote on Tuesday, California – by the biggest prize on offer with 546 delegates - is threatening to side with Bernie Sanders."

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Opinium's EU referendum poll:

New methodology:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 41%

Old methodology:
Remain: 40%
Leave: 43%

(Online, 31 May - 03 Jun)

OK, so the Grauniad on Sunday is using the Old methodology.

The Grauniad can use whatever methodolgy it likes. But the headline is wrong.

Mortimer said:

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

MoS

Consistently a different editorial line.

We have had the mail and mail on sunday delivered for years but never seen such a divergence over any issue like the EU. In fact the mail is so pro brexit it has lost all sense of balance, and that includes all the writers

Richard_Tyndall said:

I think this shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the convention by those making the claims. The convention applies to the contracted parties (the countries) in the treaty not necessarily to the individual citizens of the countries. If the UK were to withdraw from the treaties (which they would be doing as part of the Leave process under Article 50) then the rights accrued under those treaties would be lost unless covered in some other way. Basically those saying British citizens would still be covered are wrong.

Agreed. I was making the same point the other way.

Anyway I'm glad you popped up as it's just occurred to me how monumentally hypocritical you are being in recent days. You have been criticising free movement in the EU to the point of saying that it amounts to a racist immigration policy, while for years you have consistently said that you favour being in the EEA which would mean no change whatsoever to this. In addition you've explicitly said that free movement doesn't bother you at all. Why have your views suddenly shifted?

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic

Re: California Primary:

The Daily Telegraph reports:

"It was meant to be her proudest moment yet: a victorious march to the history books as the first woman presidential nominee of the United States.

Instead the finale of the primary election season may prove to be a day Hillary Clinton would rather forget. As the eight remaining states prepare to vote on Tuesday, California – by the biggest prize on offer with 546 delegates - is threatening to side with Bernie Sanders."

Hilary is as bad a candidate as Trump and Sanders.

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

I am sure we will with some but others will be unforgiving. I would expect the French to become very uncooperative, particularly over Calais

I would hope and expect that other European countries would treat us with the contempt we deserve. A Brexit vote would be embarrassing, and an act of obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour. At least the EDL, Putin, Trump, the BNP, and Nigel Farage would be happy. Well done Britain- didn't you do well........

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

Scott_P said:

The polls can't be wrong...

@_a_y: @DPJHodges @Samfr @DPJHodges Polling in 2016 = Online & Phone, New & Old Methodology. FOUR arse covering options!

Are you going to Float like a Voter and sting like the EC?

Scott_P said:

The polls can't be wrong...

@_a_y: @DPJHodges @Samfr @DPJHodges Polling in 2016 = Online & Phone, New & Old Methodology. FOUR arse covering options!

Well no, I suppose one of them must be right.. sort of.

But which one?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

I am sure we will with some but others will be unforgiving. I would expect the French to become very uncooperative, particularly over Calais

Indeed. I'm willing to accept that we'll never again have territorial control of Calais.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

What do you think the result will be?

I have no idea

Back on topic

The Daily Telegraph also reports this evening as follows:

Voters "cannot trust" David Cameron and George Osborne to honour their promises on Europe, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson have warned in an extraordinary attack on their government colleagues.

The leaders of the Vote Leave campaign declare that the Prime Minister has put the British economy in “severe danger” by giving away the UK’s veto during talks in Brussels earlier this year.

They say Mr Cameron’s renegotiation of Britain’s European Union membership leaves Britain “dangerously and permanently exposed” to being forced to hand over more money and accept “damaging new laws”.

Wow .... strong stuff. Neither can expect to be offered Cabinet positions after making such claims. Either they are destined for the backbenches or both Cameron and Osborne themselves appear doomed.

tyson said:

I would hope and expect that other European countries would treat us with the contempt we deserve. A Brexit vote would be embarrassing, and an act of obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour. At least the EDL, Putin, Trump, the BNP, and Nigel Farage would be happy. Well done Britain- didn't you do well........

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

An opportunity to do Britain down and tyson seizes upon it....

Mortimer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/montie/status/739140707726860289

Looks OK to me...

The principles are fine - I am very distracted by the odd clip art 'x's, all in slightly different formats though. They also look like 'incorrect' symbols rather than crosses on voting forms to me. No doubt the agency had their reasons.

My thoughts exactly.

Presumably meant to draw attention?

Perhaps, but why toward the 'x's and away from the pledges?

It's a bit crap really, but then the logo is a cube with a slot.

I would hope that the French open the floodgates from Calais and give as many migrants as they could one way tickets on Eurostar with a complimentary glass of champers. That'll be for starters.....and no more than we deserve.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

I am sure we will with some but others will be unforgiving. I would expect the French to become very uncooperative, particularly over Calais

tyson said:

I would hope and expect that other European countries would treat us with the contempt we deserve. A Brexit vote would be embarrassing, and an act of obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour. At least the EDL, Putin, Trump, the BNP, and Nigel Farage would be happy. Well done Britain- didn't you do well........

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

Gosh, I'm so glad I don't hate myself like you.

Roger said:

BenedictWhite said:

Roger said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Roger said:

Mortimer said:

Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.

I'm not sure there is time for any convincing now. It's GOTV time. Leave need to massively push for their angry hordes to be registered, able, and definitely voting (how they do that I don't know), and Leave need to do whatever they can to mobilise their supporters, like students.

I've heard and seen nothing that convinces me Leave is in the lead. I think that Remain are accepting and perhaps even encouraging this narrative, to scare the Remain-minded and to induce complacency amongst Leavers. It may or may not work, but it's worth trying.

What convinces me 'Leave' are doing well is that every vox pop you hear -and there are plenty-parrot the 'Leave' campaign. Turkey-£350 million a week-NHS going down the toilet -immigration. They're making all the connections and then the immigration figures came out. Couldn't be worse for 'Remain' which is why I think this could be 'Leave's' high water mark.

Why do you think it is a high water mark? Do you think leave is going to tail off?

All 'Leaves' messages have been picked up. They couldn't have hoped for more. Now we'll wait to see Remain articulate a response and find a theme for the last few weeks. I could give them a few ideas but their researchers will already be on the case

Khan v Boris at Wembley will be box office

peter_from_putney said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/montie/status/739140707726860289

Looks OK to me...

The principles are fine - I am very distracted by the odd clip art 'x's, all in slightly different formats though. They also look like 'incorrect' symbols rather than crosses on voting forms to me. No doubt the agency had their reasons.

Diversity, innit!

I've just seen your new Picture Profile. Have you and TSE ever been seen in the same room together?

Come to think of it... have we ever been seen in the same room together?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/montie/status/739140707726860289

Looks OK to me...

The principles are fine - I am very distracted by the odd clip art 'x's, all in slightly different formats though. They also look like 'incorrect' symbols rather than crosses on voting forms to me. No doubt the agency had their reasons.

My thoughts exactly.

Presumably meant to draw attention?

Perhaps, but why toward the 'x's and away from the pledges?

It's a bit crap really, but then the logo is a cube with a slot.

Otherwise known as a ballot box

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

The same MoS that demonised Farage last year and has been consistently pro Remain for weeks to the extent I know of people that have stopped buying it.

Just looks like CCHQ have released the next wheeze in project fesr to me

Joe public does not make the distinction between the DM & MoS, one of the Mail titles headlining the number of BNP, EDL racist types involved in the Leave campaign will be an eye-opener for many. If the Guardian had produced the report it would have been dismissed as a smear.

It also makes a mockery of Plato's line earlier on today that it is an outrage to suggest that there are any racists in the Leave campaign. Hello, yes there are, plenty of them

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

I am sure we will with some but others will be unforgiving. I would expect the French to become very uncooperative, particularly over Calais

Indeed. I'm willing to accept that we'll never again have territorial control of Calais.

Mary Tudor has a lot to answer for.

Roger said:

BenedictWhite said:

Roger said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Roger said:

Mortimer said:

Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.

I'm not sure there is time for any convincing now. It's GOTV time. Leave need to massively push for their angry hordes to be registered, able, and definitely voting (how they do that I don't know), and Leave need to do whatever they can to mobilise their supporters, like students.

I've heard and seen nothing that convinces me Leave is in the lead. I think that Remain are accepting and perhaps even encouraging this narrative, to scare the Remain-minded and to induce complacency amongst Leavers. It may or may not work, but it's worth trying.

What convinces me 'Leave' are doing well is that every vox pop you hear -and there are plenty-parrot the 'Leave' campaign. Turkey-£350 million a week-NHS going down the toilet -immigration. They're making all the connections and then the immigration figures came out. Couldn't be worse for 'Remain' which is why I think this could be 'Leave's' high water mark.

Why do you think it is a high water mark? Do you think leave is going to tail off?

All 'Leaves' messages have been picked up. They couldn't have hoped for more. Now we'll wait to see Remain articulate a response and find a theme for the last few weeks. I could give them a few ideas but their researchers will already be on the case

You assume that there are no more leave messages then?

peter_from_putney said:

Back on topic

The Daily Telegraph also reports this evening as follows:

Voters "cannot trust" David Cameron and George Osborne to honour their promises on Europe, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson have warned in an extraordinary attack on their government colleagues.

The leaders of the Vote Leave campaign declare that the Prime Minister has put the British economy in “severe danger” by giving away the UK’s veto during talks in Brussels earlier this year.

They say Mr Cameron’s renegotiation of Britain’s European Union membership leaves Britain “dangerously and permanently exposed” to being forced to hand over more money and accept “damaging new laws”.

Wow .... strong stuff. Neither can expect to be offered Cabinet positions after making such claims. Either they are destined for the backbenches or both Cameron and Osborne themselves appear doomed.

I imagine anyone with deeply held Eurosceptic beliefs would find it incredibly hard to work closely with Cameron and Osborne after all the crap they have come out with. I am mainly referring to Gove. Johnson more than likely has an ulterior motive.

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/montie/status/739140707726860289

Looks OK to me...

The principles are fine - I am very distracted by the odd clip art 'x's, all in slightly different formats though. They also look like 'incorrect' symbols rather than crosses on voting forms to me. No doubt the agency had their reasons.

Diversity, innit!

I've just seen your new Picture Profile. Have you and TSE ever been seen in the same room together?

Come to think of it... have we ever been seen in the same room together?

Shhssh!

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

The polls can't be wrong...

@_a_y: @DPJHodges @Samfr @DPJHodges Polling in 2016 = Online & Phone, New & Old Methodology. FOUR arse covering options!

With the fifth being the one and only ARSE?

Any news of Jacks ARSE4EU? I hope my proctology colleagues are treating it with due respect.

I remember his MACARSE disappeared before the Sindyref, though even his last one was closer to the result than most polls.

Wasn't the last one Remain 54% and 65% turnout?

To be fait to JackW, he has been taken ill...

...hopefully not an ARSE malfunction (get well soon Jack!)

williamglenn said:

Agreed. I was making the same point the other way.

Anyway I'm glad you popped up as it's just occurred to me how monumentally hypocritical you are being in recent days. You have been criticising free movement in the EU to the point of saying that it amounts to a racist immigration policy, while for years you have consistently said that you favour being in the EEA which would mean no change whatsoever to this. In addition you've explicitly said that free movement doesn't bother you at all. Why have your views suddenly shifted?

Not at all. I was actually waiting for someone to make that point because to add it to my comments would take too long. In fact I did allude to it yesterday in a posting on the subject where I said that in spite of my views on the UK immigration policy I would still choose the EEA option.

Basically the EEA option is the best one for Britain and for Leave in my opinion. Now it seems the polls are trying their best to prove me wrong but I said very clearly when Leave decided to go for the Complete Out option that I thought it was a mistake and had greatly diminished the chances of a Leave victory. I do still believe that if Leave had gone for the EEA option they would be much further ahead - though again the polls seems to be determined to prove me wrong.

That doesn't change the fact that I do believe the EU makes our immigration policy inherently racist. I am happy to argue that as I believe it to be true. I do strongly believe in free movement but believe that should apply to all, not just to EU citizens. But I am also sensible enough to realise that anyone standing on that platform - much like many other of my Libertarian views - is going to get absolutely nowhere. The sorts of people who view the world as I or Robert Smithson or some of the other Libertarians on here do is vanishingly small. If I was leading Leave as an ideologically pure campaign they would be in single figures.

The Britain I want is almost certainly never going to happen so I have to accept a compromise whist still being happy to argue my beliefs on here.

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/montie/status/739140707726860289

Looks OK to me...

The principles are fine - I am very distracted by the odd clip art 'x's, all in slightly different formats though. They also look like 'incorrect' symbols rather than crosses on voting forms to me. No doubt the agency had their reasons.

My thoughts exactly.

Presumably meant to draw attention?

Perhaps, but why toward the 'x's and away from the pledges?

It's a bit crap really, but then the logo is a cube with a slot.

Otherwise known as a ballot box

Indeed, but unless they feel we Leavers need an illustration in order to know what one looks like, there seems little point.

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Opinium's EU referendum poll:

New methodology:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 41%

Old methodology:
Remain: 40%
Leave: 43%

(Online, 31 May - 03 Jun)

OK, so the Grauniad on Sunday is using the Old methodology.

The Grauniad can use whatever methodolgy it likes. But the headline is wrong.

Did you manage to sell your flat, vc?

No. In the Osborne boom, the sale price of my flat rose by about 20K but the prices of the flats/houses I wanted to buy rose by about 30K (flats) or 40K (houses). I can't make the gap up. So I keep making offers but keep getting rejected. Prices have started to fall (lack of BTL buyers, possibly Brexit...I know, irony) but they're not falling fast enough. The question is what's going to happen first: my buyer pull out or a vendor cracks. It's not a good situation, and not one I'm particularly proud of.

It is ironic: I frequently point out that Brexit is undesirable because of multiple financial penalties (opportunity cost, uncertainty, transition costs) and am content that I am correct. But the pro-REMAIN Osborne, by preannouncing a change in taxation with four month's notice, cost me about £10-20K. It's not like it was unprecedented: Lawson did the same thing in 87/88? with the same deleritous results. Damn...

Still. I have Doritos and "Watchmen" is on Film4. So life not that bad.

tyson said:

I'm not the one siding with the thugs from the EDL, the BNP, revolutionary communists, Putin, Trump, Murdoch, Paul Dacre, Farage. Look around and see the groups who support Brexit. Lowest common denominating, populist, ugly, ugly politics.

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

I would hope and expect that other European countries would treat us with the contempt we deserve. A Brexit vote would be embarrassing, and an act of obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour. At least the EDL, Putin, Trump, the BNP, and Nigel Farage would be happy. Well done Britain- didn't you do well........

"obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour."

Something you are clearly well practiced in.

Smear, smear, smear
Ugly politics from tyson.

A truly bizarre thing to say. Technology and improvements in health are going to give the next generation a quality of life we can only imagine. And you are worried about a few migrants......

AnneJGP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

I am sure we will with some but others will be unforgiving. I would expect the French to become very uncooperative, particularly over Calais

Well, I am inclined to think we are witnessing the beginning of the end of European culture as we know it. There are just too many people from significantly different cultures who wish to come & live in Europe, and since they come (mostly) in peace there isn't any obvious way of keeping them out. They will come & settle and change the European way of life to one they are more comfortable with.

I have no ill-will towards any of these people, but I am glad I have no children.

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Opinium's EU referendum poll:

New methodology:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 41%

Old methodology:
Remain: 40%
Leave: 43%

(Online, 31 May - 03 Jun)

OK, so the Grauniad on Sunday is using the Old methodology.

The Grauniad can use whatever methodolgy it likes. But the headline is wrong.

Did you manage to sell your flat, vc?

No. In the Osborne boom, the sale price of my flat rose by about 20K but the prices of the flats/houses I wanted to buy rose by about 30K (flats) or 40K (houses). I can't make the gap up. So I keep making offers but keep getting rejected. Prices have started to fall (lack of BTL buyers, possibly Brexit...I know, irony) but they're not falling fast enough. The question is what's going to happen first: my buyer pull out or a vendor cracks. It's not a good situation, and not one I'm particularly proud of.

It is ironic: I frequently point out that Brexit is undesirable because of multiple financial penalties (opportunity cost, uncertainty, transition costs) and am content that I am correct. But the pro-REMAIN Osborne, by preannouncing a change in taxation with four month's notice, cost me about £10-20K. It's not like it was unprecedented: Lawson did the same thing in 87/88? with the same deleritous results. Damn...

Still. I have Doritos and "Watchmen" is on Film4. So life not that bad.

Sorry to hear that! Can I add you to the list of people no longer fans of Osbo?

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Opinium's EU referendum poll:

New methodology:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 41%

Old methodology:
Remain: 40%
Leave: 43%

(Online, 31 May - 03 Jun)

OK, so the Grauniad on Sunday is using the Old methodology.

The Grauniad can use whatever methodolgy it likes. But the headline is wrong.

Did you manage to sell your flat, vc?

No. In the Osborne boom, the sale price of my flat rose by about 20K but the prices of the flats/houses I wanted to buy rose by about 30K (flats) or 40K (houses). I can't make the gap up. So I keep making offers but keep getting rejected. Prices have started to fall (lack of BTL buyers, possibly Brexit...I know, irony) but they're not falling fast enough. The question is what's going to happen first: my buyer pull out or a vendor cracks. It's not a good situation, and not one I'm particularly proud of.

It is ironic: I frequently point out that Brexit is undesirable because of multiple financial penalties (opportunity cost, uncertainty, transition costs) and am content that I am correct. But the pro-REMAIN Osborne, by preannouncing a change in taxation with four month's notice, cost me about £10-20K. It's not like it was unprecedented: Lawson did the same thing in 87/88? with the same deleritous results. Damn...

Still. I have Doritos and "Watchmen" is on Film4. So life not that bad.

Die Hard with a vengance on BBC1!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OllyT said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

The same MoS that demonised Farage last year and has been consistently pro Remain for weeks to the extent I know of people that have stopped buying it.

Just looks like CCHQ have released the next wheeze in project fesr to me

Joe public does not make the distinction between the DM & MoS, one of the Mail titles headlining the number of BNP, EDL racist types involved in the Leave campaign will be an eye-opener for many. If the Guardian had produced the report it would have been dismissed as a smear.

It also makes a mockery of Plato's line earlier on today that it is an outrage to suggest that there are any racists in the Leave campaign. Hello, yes there are, plenty of them

The REMAIN campaign is based on racism too, against predominantly non-white non-EU people.

As a remainer I absolutely reject your assertion. As long as they integrate into the UK they are welcome irrespective of their race or colour of their skin or wherever they are from

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OllyT said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

The same MoS that demonised Farage last year and has been consistently pro Remain for weeks to the extent I know of people that have stopped buying it.

Just looks like CCHQ have released the next wheeze in project fesr to me

Joe public does not make the distinction between the DM & MoS, one of the Mail titles headlining the number of BNP, EDL racist types involved in the Leave campaign will be an eye-opener for many. If the Guardian had produced the report it would have been dismissed as a smear.

It also makes a mockery of Plato's line earlier on today that it is an outrage to suggest that there are any racists in the Leave campaign. Hello, yes there are, plenty of them

The REMAIN campaign is based on racism too, against predominantly non-white non-EU people.

As a remainer I absolutely reject your assertion. As long as they integrate into the UK they are welcome irrespective of their race or colour of their skin or wherever they are from

See? It's not nice to be accused of racism, is it?

tyson said:

I'm not the one siding with the thugs from the EDL, the BNP, revolutionary communists, Putin, Trump, Murdoch, Paul Dacre, Farage. Look around and see the groups who support Brexit. Lowest common denominating, populist, ugly, ugly politics.

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

I would hope and expect that other European countries would treat us with the contempt we deserve. A Brexit vote would be embarrassing, and an act of obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour. At least the EDL, Putin, Trump, the BNP, and Nigel Farage would be happy. Well done Britain- didn't you do well........

"obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour."

Something you are clearly well practiced in.

You've just declared that trains full of migrants would be a punishment inflicted on this country. That's a view that most if not all of these individuals and groups would agree with.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OllyT said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

The same MoS that demonised Farage last year and has been consistently pro Remain for weeks to the extent I know of people that have stopped buying it.

Just looks like CCHQ have released the next wheeze in project fesr to me

Joe public does not make the distinction between the DM & MoS, one of the Mail titles headlining the number of BNP, EDL racist types involved in the Leave campaign will be an eye-opener for many. If the Guardian had produced the report it would have been dismissed as a smear.

It also makes a mockery of Plato's line earlier on today that it is an outrage to suggest that there are any racists in the Leave campaign. Hello, yes there are, plenty of them

The REMAIN campaign is based on racism too, against predominantly non-white non-EU people.

As a remainer I absolutely reject your assertion. As long as they integrate into the UK they are welcome irrespective of their race or colour of their skin or wherever they are from

Ah - But the EU discriminates against them when offering employment - in favour of predominantly white EU people. If you can't see that then I suggest you take your blinkers off, look around you and have a whiff of the bucolic smell the EU leaves.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OllyT said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

The same MoS that demonised Farage last year and has been consistently pro Remain for weeks to the extent I know of people that have stopped buying it.

Just looks like CCHQ have released the next wheeze in project fesr to me

Joe public does not make the distinction between the DM & MoS, one of the Mail titles headlining the number of BNP, EDL racist types involved in the Leave campaign will be an eye-opener for many. If the Guardian had produced the report it would have been dismissed as a smear.

It also makes a mockery of Plato's line earlier on today that it is an outrage to suggest that there are any racists in the Leave campaign. Hello, yes there are, plenty of them

The REMAIN campaign is based on racism too, against predominantly non-white non-EU people.

As a remainer I absolutely reject your assertion. As long as they integrate into the UK they are welcome irrespective of their race or colour of their skin or wherever they are from

Indeed, while some Leavers get vehement about Poles and Lithuanians, get them on the subject of Turks or asylum seekers from Africa and the vehemence goes off the scale. Unfortunately my Dad is one of these.

Slightly non sequitur. I am very frustrated that many of my fellow citizens do not have the same lofty aspirations for collective, global, collaboration and you deride me as self loathing.

The amount of personal abuse I get on this site isn't surprising. If you notice I usually always play the ball and never the player....I've had the odd dig at seanT and possibly and obliquely Plato for a bit of fun.

Luckyguy1983 said:

tyson said:

I would hope and expect that other European countries would treat us with the contempt we deserve. A Brexit vote would be embarrassing, and an act of obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour. At least the EDL, Putin, Trump, the BNP, and Nigel Farage would be happy. Well done Britain- didn't you do well........

AnneJGP said:

I have absolutely no expectations of what will happen if we vote Leave. All other countries will do what seems good to them. I am confident the people of this country will cope, whatever happens.

I hope & trust we will be able to maintain good relations with all other countries.

Gosh, I'm so glad I don't hate myself like you.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OllyT said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach

At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.

Believe me It doesn't look any better for Leave at second, third or fourth sight. Particularly powerful coming from the Mail.

The same MoS that demonised Farage last year and has been consistently pro Remain for weeks to the extent I know of people that have stopped buying it.

Just looks like CCHQ have released the next wheeze in project fesr to me

Joe public does not make the distinction between the DM & MoS, one of the Mail titles headlining the number of BNP, EDL racist types involved in the Leave campaign will be an eye-opener for many. If the Guardian had produced the report it would have been dismissed as a smear.

It also makes a mockery of Plato's line earlier on today that it is an outrage to suggest that there are any racists in the Leave campaign. Hello, yes there are, plenty of them

The REMAIN campaign is based on racism too, against predominantly non-white non-EU people.

As a remainer I absolutely reject your assertion. As long as they integrate into the UK they are welcome irrespective of their race or colour of their skin or wherever they are from

See? It's not nice to be accused of racism, is it?

I have never accused anyone of racism

Sunil_Prasannan said:

tyson said:

I'm not the one siding with the thugs from the EDL, the BNP, revolutionary communists, Putin, Trump, Murdoch, Paul Dacre, Farage. Look around and see the groups who support Brexit. Lowest common denominating, populist, ugly, ugly politics.

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

I would hope and expect that other European countries would treat us with the contempt we deserve. A Brexit vote would be embarrassing, and an act of obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour. At least the EDL, Putin, Trump, the BNP, and Nigel Farage would be happy. Well done Britain- didn't you do well........

"obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour."

Something you are clearly well practiced in.

Smear, smear, smear
Ugly politics from tyson.

OK but can we at least acknowledge that there are some very unsavoury BNP/EDL types involved with the Leave campaign.

I recall many comments on PB quite rightly telling Labour to sort itself out because of some anti-semitic remarks. Likewise Leave to acknowledge that they have a problem with racists and tell us what they intend to do to rectify it (assuming they do intend to do something to rectify it)

OllyT said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

tyson said:

I'm not the one siding with the thugs from the EDL, the BNP, revolutionary communists, Putin, Trump, Murdoch, Paul Dacre, Farage. Look around and see the groups who support Brexit. Lowest common denominating, populist, ugly, ugly politics.

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

I would hope and expect that other European countries would treat us with the contempt we deserve. A Brexit vote would be embarrassing, and an act of obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour. At least the EDL, Putin, Trump, the BNP, and Nigel Farage would be happy. Well done Britain- didn't you do well........

"obnoxious, yobbish and low life behaviour."

Something you are clearly well practiced in.

Smear, smear, smear
Ugly politics from tyson.

OK but can we at least acknowledge that there are some very unsavoury BNP/EDL types involved with the Leave campaign.

I recall many comments on PB quite rightly telling Labour to sort itself out because of some anti-semitic remarks. Likewise Leave to acknowledge that they have a problem with racists and tell us what they intend to do to rectify it (assuming they do intend to do something to rectify it)

The first I've heard of it was the MoS story. They can't be that big of an influence, surely?

Probably been said, but a bit late to go through all the comments: Observer reporting this as Brexit lead in order to wake up complacent left-leaning Remainers. And they need it. As I keep saying, this is utterly lost unless Remain campaign wakes up sleeping voters and gets out the vote.