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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old

SystemSystem Posts: 12,267
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old methodology Leave would be ahead

Like the ORB and ICM phone polls, there appears to have been a marked shift towards Leave before the methodology change, what will also delight Leave is this, Opinium say ‘In our last poll, 47% leaned towards Remaining while 32% leaned the other way. In this latest poll, undecideds are nearly evenly split with 36% leaning towards staying in the EU and 33% towards Leave.’

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    Oh...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Second? Something for all in this poll, it would seem.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Second like Leave
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,164
    Glorious fourth!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Second like Leave

    Actually third... Like Osborne in the next Con leadership race?
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited June 2016
    FPT
    TOPPING said:

    williamglenn said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    williamglenn said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Scott_P said:

    weejonnie said:

    liberalisation of business from stifling EU conditions will soon recover it.

    "We will continue to sell to Europe!"

    liberalisation of business from stifling EU conditions

    These 2 statements are contradictory
    No it is not 90% of uk businesses trade only within the UK. Liberating them from all the single market ce nonsense will reduce costs. Exports to EU will still need to jump through the ce hoops - if the companiesnthink it worth the candle and dont export to somewhere else we to a trade deal with instead.
    So which 'CE nonsense' will we abolish on day one? Oh, none of it... And in fact we'll probably never abolish any of it at all as there isn't any reason to.
    Oh yes there damn well is (unless you are a large corporation that benefits from a system that makes you do all sort of expensive tests before you place something on the market, locking out smaller competitors
    "Vote Leave for untested products with no safety standards!"
    "Vote Leave for untested products with no safety standards for sale in the UK. Those products that we want to sell to the EU will have to be tested and safe."
    Yeah like the rules that prohibit sales of seeds that have been around hundreds of years unless you psy an expensive euro registration fee which makes it uneconomic for heritage varieties of vegetsbles becsuse agri busuness use F1 hybrids, wrecking seed diversity meaning risk of disease is higher and making it impossible tp get true breeding plants in some cases
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    The last Opinium survey would probably have shown Remain ahead by 7-8% ahead on this methodology. Online pollsters are constantly adjusting their methodology in ways that favour Remain, but the race is still tightening.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Sean_F said:

    The last Opinium survey would probably have shown Remain ahead by 7-8% ahead on this methodology. Online pollsters are constantly adjusting their methodology in ways that favour Remain, but the race is still tightening.

    It all seems a bit rum.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited June 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Second? Something for all in this poll, it would seem.

    What on earth is good for Remain? The last Opinium was 44-40 in Favour of Remain. This suggests a 2.5 - 3% swing to Leave. (With most fieldwork before the interviews)
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Sean_F said:

    The last Opinium survey would probably have shown Remain ahead by 7-8% ahead on this methodology. Online pollsters are constantly adjusting their methodology in ways that favour Remain, but the race is still tightening.

    So are we seeing convergence of the on-line and phone polls as a result?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Alas poor Remain, I knew him well.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    weejonnie said:

    Mortimer said:

    Second? Something for all in this poll, it would seem.

    What on earth is good for Remain? The last Opinium was 44-40 in Favour of Remain. This suggests a 2.5 - 3% swing to Leave. (With most fieldwork before the interviews)
    Still ahead? Just? I'm trying to be impartial!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    Broken, sleazy REMAIN on the slide :)
  • ViceroyViceroy Posts: 128
    The more I hear people talking about how they're voting and when I think of turnout/demographics I am very hopeful. British independence is within our grasp.

    Ordering #VoteLeave placards to put in the front garden tomorrow. More leafleting soon - c'mon all you pro-sovereignty campaigners let's make this happen in the next 19 days!!!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Very encouraging news for the leave campaign. Lets see a few phone polls now to show they back up ORB and ICM.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Making up as they go along...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,811
    MTimT said:

    Sean_F said:

    The last Opinium survey would probably have shown Remain ahead by 7-8% ahead on this methodology. Online pollsters are constantly adjusting their methodology in ways that favour Remain, but the race is still tightening.

    So are we seeing convergence of the on-line and phone polls as a result?
    Intelligent question (what are you doing here?.. :) ) . The phone polls have been converging to the online polls gradually for, what, six months now? I assume this trend will continue until they are about the same te night before.

    Polls aren't really predictive until the last week (and as we all know, not much even then).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited June 2016
    So the pollster opens the door & offers you the results based on the new model, do you stick or switch?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Project Fear clearly regarded as a joke now,Remain need a complete change of strategy..

    They need to project an optimistic upbeat image of the EU.

    Maybe they can get Junker to come to the UK and do some campaigning for them.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,811
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So they pollster opens the door & offers you the results based on the new model, do you stick or switch?

    It depends on how many goats conducted the survey.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    edited June 2016
    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    Odd you didn't make that point when Farage 'lost' £250 by choosing the wrong account.

    By your metric Leave Supporters = Thickheads
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Well the French prosecutors are well ahead of us when it comes to investigating serious fraud, namely a certain Anne Lauvergeon who was a director at Vodafone:

    http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/05/19/affaire-uramin-la-chute-d-anne-lauvergeon-vue-d-afrique_4922608_3212.html
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    viewcode said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So they pollster opens the door & offers you the results based on the new model, do you stick or switch?

    It depends on how many goats conducted the survey.

    Groats? They're worth 4 pence each you know.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Mortimer said:

    weejonnie said:

    Mortimer said:

    Second? Something for all in this poll, it would seem.

    What on earth is good for Remain? The last Opinium was 44-40 in Favour of Remain. This suggests a 2.5 - 3% swing to Leave. (With most fieldwork before the interviews)
    Still ahead? Just? I'm trying to be impartial!
    Well it is a few crumbs, I suppose, but everyone here knows the trend is your friend - and with Purdah Remain have lost their biggest guns (whether metric or imperial in measure - probably the former). They've shot their wad.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    FPT:
    williamglenn said:
    » show previous quotes
    So which 'CE nonsense' will we abolish on day one? Oh, none of it... And in fact we'll probably never abolish any of it at all as there isn't any reason to.
    Really? Quite a lot of it is unhelpful in particular to say the small PC manufacturer because building a PC out of CE tested parts is not enough you have to get the whole thing tested.

    Bit of a pain if your making a 1 or 10 off given the costs of the tests, as a result less machines are made this way.

    There isn't actually a good reason for it so it could go.

    Nothing will go on day one but there is no reason that many could go in years 1, 2 & 3.
  • ViceroyViceroy Posts: 128
    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    Warnings of Godzilla and an alien invasion. That's pretty much it.

    Maybe an intervention by Tony Blair. I hope. :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    On the basis of polling, I don't think anything higher than a 60% probability for Remain is now justified.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited June 2016
    BenedictWhite said:

    FPT:
    williamglenn said:
    » show previous quotes
    So which 'CE nonsense' will we abolish on day one? Oh, none of it... And in fact we'll probably never abolish any of it at all as there isn't any reason to.
    Really? Quite a lot of it is unhelpful in particular to say the small PC manufacturer because building a PC out of CE tested parts is not enough you have to get the whole thing tested.

    Bit of a pain if your making a 1 or 10 off given the costs of the tests, as a result less machines are made this way.

    There isn't actually a good reason for it so it could go.

    Nothing will go on day one but there is no reason that many could go in years 1, 2 & 3.

    There are several regulatory bars to export in my industry that are related to EU rules. I'm not convinced they will be (or even should be) entirely removed post Brexit, but some relaxation or change in thresholds will be much easier without EU bodies involved.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,164
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    Odd you didn't make that point when Farage 'lost' £250 by choosing the wrong account.

    By your metric Leave Supporters = Thickheads
    But 3.108 times less thick than remain supporters ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    weejonnie said:

    Mortimer said:

    weejonnie said:

    Mortimer said:

    Second? Something for all in this poll, it would seem.

    What on earth is good for Remain? The last Opinium was 44-40 in Favour of Remain. This suggests a 2.5 - 3% swing to Leave. (With most fieldwork before the interviews)
    Still ahead? Just? I'm trying to be impartial!
    Well it is a few crumbs, I suppose, but everyone here knows the trend is your friend - and with Purdah Remain have lost their biggest guns (whether metric or imperial in measure - probably the former). They've shot their wad.
    The worrying thing for Remain must be that undecideds seem to be breaking for Leave.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,811
    MarkHopkins said:

    viewcode said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So they pollster opens the door & offers you the results based on the new model, do you stick or switch?

    It depends on how many goats conducted the survey.

    Groats? They're worth 4 pence each you know.

    I remember thr'upenny bits. They had sides, y'know...
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Mortimer said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    FPT:
    williamglenn said:
    » show previous quotes
    So which 'CE nonsense' will we abolish on day one? Oh, none of it... And in fact we'll probably never abolish any of it at all as there isn't any reason to.
    Really? Quite a lot of it is unhelpful in particular to say the small PC manufacturer because building a PC out of CE tested parts is not enough you have to get the whole thing tested.

    Bit of a pain if your making a 1 or 10 off given the costs of the tests, as a result less machines are made this way.

    There isn't actually a good reason for it so it could go.

    Nothing will go on day one but there is no reason that many could go in years 1, 2 & 3.

    There are several regulatory bars to export in my industry that are related to EU rules. I'm not convinced they will be (or even should be) entirely removed post Brexit, but some relaxation or change in thresholds will be much easier without EU bodies involved.
    What business and what regulations on export?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    Odd you didn't make that point when Farage 'lost' £250 by choosing the wrong account.

    By your metric Leave Supporters = Thickheads
    But 3.108 times less thick than remain supporters ;)
    Comparing apples and androids, they didn't place the same level of stake.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    Odd you didn't make that point when Farage 'lost' £250 by choosing the wrong account.

    By your metric Leave Supporters = Thickheads
    Good evening, Exalted Thickhead.

    Could you post the "unadjusted Leave ahead" percentages? Ta.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,927
    hunchman said:

    Well the French prosecutors are well ahead of us when it comes to investigating serious fraud, namely a certain Anne Lauvergeon who was a director at Vodafone:

    http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/05/19/affaire-uramin-la-chute-d-anne-lauvergeon-vue-d-afrique_4922608_3212.html

    It's ironic that her husband's name is a slang word for money. Like Mr Dosh.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    With every passing poll it's looking bleaker and bleaker for Remain. Remain's only hope - and there might be something in this - it that the companies are disproportionally sampling the daytime-telly brigade - i.e. the massed ranks of the elderly and the unemployable. With luck, there are a lot of Monday Warriors who've slipped beneath the radar. Otherwise Remain, and by extension the United Kingdom, is royally up the creek.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    Odd you didn't make that point when Farage 'lost' £250 by choosing the wrong account.

    By your metric Leave Supporters = Thickheads
    Good evening, Exalted Thickhead.

    Could you post the "unadjusted Leave ahead" percentages? Ta.
    Perhaps you could learn to read.

    Opinium say "A fuller explanation of these changes and the effect they have will be posted on Monday.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,152
    MarkHopkins said:

    viewcode said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So they pollster opens the door & offers you the results based on the new model, do you stick or switch?

    It depends on how many goats conducted the survey.

    Groats? They're worth 4 pence each you know.

    4d or old pennies, isn't it? 4 pence is worth about 10d, I think. (1shilling [12d] was worth 5p)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    Odd you didn't make that point when Farage 'lost' £250 by choosing the wrong account.

    By your metric Leave Supporters = Thickheads
    Good evening, Exalted Thickhead.

    Could you post the "unadjusted Leave ahead" percentages? Ta.
    Perhaps you could learn to read.

    Opinium say "A fuller explanation of these changes and the effect they have will be posted on Monday.
    48 hours? Why the delay? They must have the "original methodology" numbers!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,164
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    Odd you didn't make that point when Farage 'lost' £250 by choosing the wrong account.

    By your metric Leave Supporters = Thickheads
    But 3.108 times less thick than remain supporters ;)
    Comparing apples and androids, they didn't place the same level of stake.
    Well that went down like a lead balloon... lol :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Hunchman, for the sake of Mike, stop talking about Finchley Road, you're making allegations that will get Mike into trouble.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    weejonnie said:

    Mortimer said:

    Second? Something for all in this poll, it would seem.

    What on earth is good for Remain? The last Opinium was 44-40 in Favour of Remain. This suggests a 2.5 - 3% swing to Leave. (With most fieldwork before the interviews)
    Winning, I presume.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited June 2016
    BenedictWhite said:

    Mortimer said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    FPT:
    williamglenn said:
    » show previous quotes
    So which 'CE nonsense' will we abolish on day one? Oh, none of it... And in fact we'll probably never abolish any of it at all as there isn't any reason to.
    Really? Quite a lot of it is unhelpful in particular to say the small PC manufacturer because building a PC out of CE tested parts is not enough you have to get the whole thing tested.

    Bit of a pain if your making a 1 or 10 off given the costs of the tests, as a result less machines are made this way.

    There isn't actually a good reason for it so it could go.

    Nothing will go on day one but there is no reason that many could go in years 1, 2 & 3.

    There are several regulatory bars to export in my industry that are related to EU rules. I'm not convinced they will be (or even should be) entirely removed post Brexit, but some relaxation or change in thresholds will be much easier without EU bodies involved.
    What business and what regulations on export?
    Antiques trade - mostly relate to unwieldy licensing paperwork and expensively administered 'schemes' such as the ARR.

    Not one I'm hugely bothered about given I'm not an auctioneer, but I hear some in the auction trade dislike the creeping application of EU consumer legislation to what has always been, relatively sensibly when not exploited, 'buyer beware'.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Stark_Dawning said:

    With every passing poll it's looking bleaker and bleaker for Remain. Remain's only hope - and there might be something in this - it that the companies are disproportionally sampling the daytime-telly brigade - i.e. the massed ranks of the elderly and the unemployable. With luck, there are a lot of Monday Warriors who've slipped beneath the radar. Otherwise Remain, and by extension the United Kingdom, is royally up the creek.

    Or indeed well out of that particular creek....

    If they are wrong on this then they could've been wrong about GE 2015...

    Oh wait, they were, understating the Conservative seats including in the exit poll.

    We just have not got a clue what is going on.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited June 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Stark_Dawning said:

    With every passing poll it's looking bleaker and bleaker for Remain. Remain's only hope - and there might be something in this - it that the companies are disproportionally sampling the daytime-telly brigade - i.e. the massed ranks of the elderly and the unemployable. With luck, there are a lot of Monday Warriors who've slipped beneath the radar. Otherwise Remain, and by extension the United Kingdom, is royally up the creek.

    According to Opinium, most voters over 35 favour Leave. Lots of workers in that number.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Mortimer said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Mortimer said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    FPT:
    williamglenn said:
    » show previous quotes
    So which 'CE nonsense' will we abolish on day one? Oh, none of it... And in fact we'll probably never abolish any of it at all as there isn't any reason to.
    Really? Quite a lot of it is unhelpful in particular to say the small PC manufacturer because building a PC out of CE tested parts is not enough you have to get the whole thing tested.

    Bit of a pain if your making a 1 or 10 off given the costs of the tests, as a result less machines are made this way.

    There isn't actually a good reason for it so it could go.

    Nothing will go on day one but there is no reason that many could go in years 1, 2 & 3.

    There are several regulatory bars to export in my industry that are related to EU rules. I'm not convinced they will be (or even should be) entirely removed post Brexit, but some relaxation or change in thresholds will be much easier without EU bodies involved.
    What business and what regulations on export?
    Antiques trade - mostly relate to unwieldy licensing paperwork and expensively administered 'schemes' such as the ARR.

    Not one I'm hugely bothered about given I'm not an auctioneer, but I hear some in the auction trade dislike the creeping application of EU consumer legislation to what has always been, relatively sensibly when not exploited, 'buyer beware'.
    Ah I see. Well, I've always worked on the basis of buyer beware in the auction business.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Has anyone got an analysis on the various pollsters and compairing their implied turnout figure with the last GE?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
    Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
    Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!
    It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.

    Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    There is an IMF report coming out a few days before the poll, I think - and I suppose they could keep Cameron off-mike. But that is a re-hash of old news.

    If there is any economic news it will be spun as either 'We're doing well - don't throw it away' or 'The world economy is in danger, don't upset the applecart it would be too risky to leave' - depending on whether it is good or bad.

    There is also the big debate at Wembley, which we hope will be fair, that could be Boris and he isn't the best debater in town - so possible cock-up for Leave there.

    The problem for Remain is that they have the Cameron-Farage interviews next. If the interviewer is honest Farage will murder Cameron, if they aren't then it will be noticed as another 'establishment conspiracy'. You can't treat two candidates so differently in such a short period of time and hope the viewers don't spot it.

    I suppose Remain could fly Hillary Clinton over to make an impassioned speech (if she isn't banged up), or Bernie Sanders (After all Donald Trump is coming over) - but I suspect not many of the hoi polloi know who Bernie is (isn't he the one who fries chicken?)

    Otherwise, I am struggling. Maybe Frau Merkel, Hollande et al could come over and make a VOW to the British people.

    What I am, sadly, expecting is that the left-wing groups HnH and UAF will start using their muscle - it is happening in America and would be basically a final admission of defeat. After all a Conservative MEP said that he would have taken Farage out if there hadn't been cameras around.

    FWIW - I know why Remain have lost - BSIE T-shirts (probably most attractive to the younger voter), cost £20.00 - the Vote Leave ones cost £5.00.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hunchman, for the sake of Mike, stop talking about Finchley Road, you're making allegations that will get Mike into trouble.

    TSE - could you please contact me privately about this please, and then I will say my piece there? - thankyou.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Good to know Damian has not lost his touch...

    @TelePolitics: Top Labour spin doctor's advice to Brexit campaign exposed after Twitter slip up https://t.co/wjKaPQgZlt https://t.co/RKMbbaSCib
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
    I'm not sure there is time for any convincing now. It's GOTV time. Leave need to massively push for their angry hordes to be registered, able, and definitely voting (how they do that I don't know), and Leave need to do whatever they can to mobilise their supporters, like students.

    I've heard and seen nothing that convinces me Leave is in the lead. I think that Remain are accepting and perhaps even encouraging this narrative, to scare the Remain-minded and to induce complacency amongst Leavers. It may or may not work, but it's worth trying.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    There is an IMF report coming out a few days before the poll, I think - and I suppose they could keep Cameron off-mike. But that is a re-hash of old news.

    If there is any economic news it will be spun as either 'We're doing well - don't throw it away' or 'The world economy is in danger, don't upset the applecart it would be too risky to leave' - depending on whether it is good or bad.

    There is also the big debate at Wembley, which we hope will be fair, that could be Boris and he isn't the best debater in town - so possible cock-up for Leave there.

    The problem for Remain is that they have the Cameron-Farage interviews next. If the interviewer is honest Farage will murder Cameron, if they aren't then it will be noticed as another 'establishment conspiracy'. You can't treat two candidates so differently in such a short period of time and hope the viewers don't spot it.

    I suppose Remain could fly Hillary Clinton over to make an impassioned speech (if she isn't banged up), or Bernie Sanders (After all Donald Trump is coming over) - but I suspect not many of the hoi polloi know who Bernie is (isn't he the one who fries chicken?)

    Otherwise, I am struggling. Maybe Frau Merkel, Hollande et al could come over and make a VOW to the British people.

    What I am, sadly, expecting is that the left-wing groups HnH and UAF will start using their muscle - it is happening in America and would be basically a final admission of defeat. After all a Conservative MEP said that he would have taken Farage out if there hadn't been cameras around.

    FWIW - I know why Remain have lost - BSIE T-shirts (probably most attractive to the younger voter), cost £20.00 - the Vote Leave ones cost £5.00.
    The problem for Cameron is that Farage is very good on the EU.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
    Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!
    It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.

    Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
    I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.

    He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/739184977775067136
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    Odd you didn't make that point when Farage 'lost' £250 by choosing the wrong account.

    By your metric Leave Supporters = Thickheads
    Good evening, Exalted Thickhead.

    Could you post the "unadjusted Leave ahead" percentages? Ta.
    Perhaps you could learn to read.

    Opinium say "A fuller explanation of these changes and the effect they have will be posted on Monday.
    48 hours? Why the delay? They must have the "original methodology" numbers!
    Not sure - but the original numbers are I think in the PDF - there are some interesting changes.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
    Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!
    It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.

    Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
    I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.

    He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
    TNS factor in Northern Ireland (not sure if others do).
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Leave is not going to happen. The UK is not going to vote to leave the EU.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/theeconomist/status/739184977775067136

    I thought that all EU regulations were just helpful assistance?
    What's this about "100 most expensive"?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
    Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!
    It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.

    Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
    I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.

    He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
    TNS factor in Northern Ireland (not sure if others do).
    Survation sometimes do as well
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/739184977775067136

    The country has the fourth-highest per capita income in the world on the World Bank and IMF lists.[17] On the CIA's GDP (PPP) per capita list (2015 estimate), Norway ranks as number eleven.[18] From 2001 to 2006,[19] and then again from 2009 to 2014, Norway had the highest Human Development Index ranking in the world.[10][20][21][22] Norway has also topped the Legatum Prosperity Index for seven years in a row as of 2015.[23]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/739184977775067136

    So we should stay so that we can apply 100 out of 100 of the most expensive regulations? Right , got it.....


    The remain campaign is shit because the E.U is shit.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    To use a football analogy for remain this is getting very much into squeaky bum terrain.

    It'll be interesting to see how Cameron goes these next few weeks. It is clear an excruciatingly narrow victory does him no favours at all and leaves his party in chaos, so he may as well go a bit demob happy and start enjoying himself. I would in his position.

    The Labour party is fubar'ed, the Tory party is fubar'ed.

    I'm going to settle down with a nice malt and watch the full re-run of the Rumble in the Jungle- the greatest sporting spectacle this planet has ever produced...... Ali....Bumaye......
    Sean_F said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sean_F said:

    WRT the betting, rich Remainers are betting with their hearts, not their heads.

    That London Punter Mike is crowing about lost £777 by choosing the wrong account - just shows that Remain Supporters == Thickheads.
    On the basis of polling, I don't think anything higher than a 60% probability for Remain is now justified.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    viewcode said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So they pollster opens the door & offers you the results based on the new model, do you stick or switch?

    It depends on how many goats conducted the survey.
    Remind me. If Monty Hall has a goat behind the second door...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The EU isn't something worth fighting for in most minds. A lot of those arguing for it here, and elsewhere, aren't arguing for the EU - they are arguing against the Tories.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Jobabob said:

    Leave is not going to happen. The UK is not going to vote to leave the EU.

    Welcome back, Mr Last Bobajob Boy Scout.
    You've not lost any of your cutting political analysis, it seems!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    They will go hard on pensions falling off a cliff in the final few days, and the BoE IMF etc making an intervention on the day before the poll. Vote Leave better be ready, it is about to get even dirtier.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited June 2016
    If I am right the weighted numbers go from

    Remain : 856 - 821 : Leave to
    Remain : 785 - 897 : Leave - or 39 - 45 Leave (46.7 - 53.3 excluding DKs)

    Even now - the headline figure for Remain is 42.6 : 40.9 - which is better for Leave than shown.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
    Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!
    It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.

    Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
    I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.

    He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
    TNS factor in Northern Ireland (not sure if others do).
    Survation sometimes do as well
    BMG.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.

    So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.

    I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    Good to know Damian has not lost his touch...

    @TelePolitics: Top Labour spin doctor's advice to Brexit campaign exposed after Twitter slip up https://t.co/wjKaPQgZlt https://t.co/RKMbbaSCib

    oops.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Weighting by education makes the most sense to me, weighting by how "conservative" views is stupid since people are much less lokely to admit that they don't agree with reducing discrimination against minorities.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    edited June 2016
    Looking at the Ramshaggers Welsh subsample, Pulpstar's going to win his Wales bet.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.

    Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....

    I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.

    I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.

    They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
    Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!
    It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.

    Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
    I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.

    He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
    If I were in Leave HQ I would agree, I'd also keep hammering away to get the biggest lead I could.

    However my experience is that remainers are very unenthusiastic. That will hit remain on the day as well.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    I can only assume Remain is doing so well on the betting markets because people are factoring in a late swing to the 'status quo'. But this nudge question - and yes, it's just one poll - implies that the Remain campaign is repelling undecided voters. With that in mind, and the polls so close, it surprises me the betting isn't closer too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Scott_P said:

    Good to know Damian has not lost his touch...

    @TelePolitics: Top Labour spin doctor's advice to Brexit campaign exposed after Twitter slip up https://t.co/wjKaPQgZlt https://t.co/RKMbbaSCib

    Good week for the cast of the office, I mean team corbyn!
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    OllyT said:

    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.

    So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.

    I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
    According to Gove, last night they will set out their economic plans next week. I hope so, I've been emailing furiously.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    There is an IMF report coming out a few days before the poll, I think - and I suppose they could keep Cameron off-mike. But that is a re-hash of old news.

    If there is any economic news it will be spun as either 'We're doing well - don't throw it away' or 'The world economy is in danger, don't upset the applecart it would be too risky to leave' - depending on whether it is good or bad.

    There is also the big debate at Wembley, which we hope will be fair, that could be Boris and he isn't the best debater in town - so possible cock-up for Leave there.

    The problem for Remain is that they have the Cameron-Farage interviews next. If the interviewer is honest Farage will murder Cameron, if they aren't then it will be noticed as another 'establishment conspiracy'. You can't treat two candidates so differently in such a short period of time and hope the viewers don't spot it.

    I suppose Remain could fly Hillary Clinton over to make an impassioned speech (if she isn't banged up), or Bernie Sanders (After all Donald Trump is coming over) - but I suspect not many of the hoi polloi know who Bernie is (isn't he the one who fries chicken?)

    Otherwise, I am struggling. Maybe Frau Merkel, Hollande et al could come over and make a VOW to the British people.

    What I am, sadly, expecting is that the left-wing groups HnH and UAF will start using their muscle - it is happening in America and would be basically a final admission of defeat. After all a Conservative MEP said that he would have taken Farage out if there hadn't been cameras around.

    FWIW - I know why Remain have lost - BSIE T-shirts (probably most attractive to the younger voter), cost £20.00 - the Vote Leave ones cost £5.00.
    The problem for Cameron is that Farage is very good on the EU.
    Isn't Farage on against the opening of the football?

    I am rather hoping that the Purdah period will shift the Remain campaign from being a Tory/Cameron campaign to a more broadbased one.

    I think Remain will win, but the betting value is still on Leave.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looking at the Ramshaggers Welsh subsample, Pulpstar's going to win his Wales bet.

    What's his Welsh bet? Leave or Remain? (I would bet leave myself)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited June 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hunchman, for the sake of Mike, stop talking about Finchley Road, you're making allegations that will get Mike into trouble.

    So hunchman opens the door to 788 finchley road, do you...innocent face
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Remain on 40-45% still available at 16/1.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,152
    OllyT said:

    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.

    So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.

    I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
    I am still expecting Remain to win fairly comfortably on the day, but nevertheless i'm thankful that it isn't being a complete walk-over.

    Hopefully, even if we do vote Remain, it will have some lasting impact on the Eurocrats, however small. But I'm not that hopeful, even of that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070
    Evening all :)

    It was Derby day today - did anyone notice ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    weejonnie said:

    If I am right the weighted numbers go from

    Remain : 856 - 821 : Leave to
    Remain : 785 - 897 : Leave - or 39 - 45 Leave (46.7 - 53.3 excluding DKs)

    Even now - the headline figure for Remain is 42.6 : 40.9 - which is better for Leave than shown.

    Thanks :)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    BenedictWhite said:

    OllyT said:

    SandyRentool said:

    weejonnie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?

    Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlier
    Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?
    No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.

    So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.

    I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
    According to Gove, last night they will set out their economic plans next week. I hope so, I've been emailing furiously.
    To me this has 'danger' written all over it. It seems (like much of Brexit the movie, which I liked), to be an audition for a new economically liberal Toryism rather than an attempt to win a referendum.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looking at the Ramshaggers Welsh subsample, Pulpstar's going to win his Wales bet.

    Noble thoughtful Dragon of people apparently coming to the right conclusion, you mean?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Tsk, Vote Remain to send a message to the Neo Nazis

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/739194359296495621
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    nunu said:

    Weighting by education makes the most sense to me, weighting by how "conservative" views is stupid since people are much less lokely to admit that they don't agree with reducing discrimination against minorities.

    Indeed, there will obviously be a social desirability bias.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It was Derby day today - did anyone notice ?

    I saw a poster at my local tube station :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It was Derby day today - did anyone notice ?

    I thought it has been Postponed.

    I'll get my coat
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tsk, Vote Remain to send a message to the Neo Nazis

    //twitter.com/suttonnick/status/739194359296495621

    Yeah we LEAVERs are ALL closet goose-steppers :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tsk, Vote Remain to send a message to the Neo Nazis

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/739194359296495621

    It's interesting to see how different MoS is to daily mail on BREXIT.
This discussion has been closed.