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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,932
    edited June 2016
    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    There is however every guarantee that who ever is in charge, they can get thrown out if the people so desire. Not so with the EU.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,932
    edited June 2016

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    There is however every guarantee that who ever is in charge, they can get thrown out if the people so desire. Not so with the EU.
    Up to a point. Brexit wouldn't be the end of outside influences and constraints on what our government can do.

    It also wouldn't do anything to fix any of the long-standing constitutional issues we labour under. House of Lords reform, the West Lothian question, an English Parliament. Frankly if Brexiters are worried about the state of democracy, they're looking in the wrong place.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    There is however every guarantee that who ever is in charge, they can get thrown out if the people so desire. Not so with the EU.
    Up to a point. Brexit wouldn't be the end of outside influences and constraints on what our government can do.
    Only up to a point.

    Isn't that what a democracy is supposed to be like? We elect them to do stuff, they do it, if we don't like it we replace them?
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    There is however every guarantee that who ever is in charge, they can get thrown out if the people so desire. Not so with the EU.
    Up to a point. Brexit wouldn't be the end of outside influences and constraints on what our government can do.

    It also wouldn't do anything to fix any of the long-standing constitutional issues we labour under. House of Lords reform, the West Lothian question, an English Parliament. Frankly if Brexiters are worried about the state of democracy, they're looking in the wrong place.
    Sorry? What about the house of Lords needs reform?

    Whilst I wasn't looking, can it now pass legislation with no involvement of our elected representatives?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    It's exceedingly unlikely for the UK, which is one of the most internationalist economies in the world - and not just because of finance. We are the 8th largest exporter country in the world, despite the fall off in our manufacturing relative to services. Then there is the fact that around 10% of the citizenry actually live abroad at any given time. So the percentage of the population with overseas experience is way higher than that.

    I suspect your fear of how Little Englander post-Brexit UK could become is more a reflection of yourself than the population.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    John_N4 said:

    "In previous surveys we found that the answers to a number of questions on issues such as [...] whether respondents felt more English or British produced results that were significantly more socially conservative than comparative polls or academic studies"

    They probably mean "comparable".

    So which is more "socially conservative" for an English person - feeling more English or feeling more British? This seems to be case number 780154 of pollsters speaking out of their backsides where qualitative considerations are concerned. It simply isn't sensible to say that feeling you're more English than British is more "conservative" than the other way round.

    Personally I feel more English than British - but only slightly more.

    Many Scottish friends feel a lot more Scottish than British. Which, SNP propaganda notwithstanding, doesn't stop them from feeling both.


    I suspect that the pollsters are trying to get away from the old left-right analysis and look more at cultural cognitive issues which are more predictive of how someone will fall on any given policy issue and hence which candidate they will support in a multi-candidate race (e.g. primaries in the US) or which position they will support in a referendum. This best place AFAIK to read up about this approach in general is at Prof Kahan's web site at Yale - http://www.culturalcognition.net/kahan/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,932
    MTimT said:

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    It's exceedingly unlikely for the UK, which is one of the most internationalist economies in the world - and not just because of finance. We are the 8th largest exporter country in the world, despite the fall off in our manufacturing relative to services. Then there is the fact that around 10% of the citizenry actually live abroad at any given time. So the percentage of the population with overseas experience is way higher than that.

    I suspect your fear of how Little Englander post-Brexit UK could become is more a reflection of yourself than the population.
    Please... This is a country that treats the NHS as a religion, that within living memory had 98% tax on investment income, whose official opposition is currently led by Jeremy Corbyn. The idea that we're all congenitally free-market oriented Thatcherites is delusional.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MTimT said:

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    It's exceedingly unlikely for the UK, which is one of the most internationalist economies in the world - and not just because of finance. We are the 8th largest exporter country in the world, despite the fall off in our manufacturing relative to services. Then there is the fact that around 10% of the citizenry actually live abroad at any given time. So the percentage of the population with overseas experience is way higher than that.

    I suspect your fear of how Little Englander post-Brexit UK could become is more a reflection of yourself than the population.
    Please... This is a country that treats the NHS as a religion, that within living memory had 98% tax on investment income, whose official opposition is currently led by Jeremy Corbyn. The idea that we're all congenitally free-market oriented Thatcherites is delusional.
    So we need to fight to defeat Corbyn and his mantra at the ballot box. It's a concept called democracy are you not familiar with it? Yes we can abolish democracy and in the short term get a better alternative path but I still would rather go down the wrong path democratically than do that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,932
    edited June 2016

    MTimT said:

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    It's exceedingly unlikely for the UK, which is one of the most internationalist economies in the world - and not just because of finance. We are the 8th largest exporter country in the world, despite the fall off in our manufacturing relative to services. Then there is the fact that around 10% of the citizenry actually live abroad at any given time. So the percentage of the population with overseas experience is way higher than that.

    I suspect your fear of how Little Englander post-Brexit UK could become is more a reflection of yourself than the population.
    Please... This is a country that treats the NHS as a religion, that within living memory had 98% tax on investment income, whose official opposition is currently led by Jeremy Corbyn. The idea that we're all congenitally free-market oriented Thatcherites is delusional.
    So we need to fight to defeat Corbyn and his mantra at the ballot box. It's a concept called democracy are you not familiar with it? Yes we can abolish democracy and in the short term get a better alternative path but I still would rather go down the wrong path democratically than do that.
    I'm not arguing against democracy, merely against complacently assuming that the people will chose the path you think they will or that you want them to.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/04/britain-asked-for-more-cash-as-migrant-crisis-strains-eu-budget
    Britain will face demands to pay billions more into the EU budget following a vote to Remain in Europe on June 23 as Brussels looks to set to ask for more cash from national governments to pay for the unfolding migrant crisis.
    EU demands more cash because of Merkel's idiocy.

    How inconvenient.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited June 2016

    MTimT said:

    Estobar said:

    It's a big mistake to equate Brexit with dislike of globalisation though. I'm an internationalist which is why I support Brexit against the closed shop centrist unelected undemocratic decaying post-war fossil called the EU.

    How horrified would you be if Brexit led to a less internationalist, more inward looking, more protectionist government in the UK? That's a very plausible scenario in the short term. There's no guarantee that like-minded people will end up in charge.
    It's exceedingly unlikely for the UK, which is one of the most internationalist economies in the world - and not just because of finance. We are the 8th largest exporter country in the world, despite the fall off in our manufacturing relative to services. Then there is the fact that around 10% of the citizenry actually live abroad at any given time. So the percentage of the population with overseas experience is way higher than that.

    I suspect your fear of how Little Englander post-Brexit UK could become is more a reflection of yourself than the population.
    Please... This is a country that treats the NHS as a religion, that within living memory had 98% tax on investment income, whose official opposition is currently led by Jeremy Corbyn. The idea that we're all congenitally free-market oriented Thatcherites is delusional.
    No-one is suggesting that "we're all congenitally free-market oriented Thatcherites", but the centre has moved way to the right from where it was when we had the supertax, currency controls and nostalgia for Empire.

    Which of the facts I stated above do you dispute?

    PS Sounds like you have a pretty low opinion of the UK and the British. I suggest you travel a bit more, get some perspective and appreciate the UK for the wonderful place it is.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    edited June 2016
    Indigo said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/04/britain-asked-for-more-cash-as-migrant-crisis-strains-eu-budget
    "Britain will face demands to pay billions more into the EU budget following a vote to Remain in Europe on June 23 as Brussels looks to set to ask for more cash from national governments to pay for the unfolding migrant crisis."

    EU demands more cash because of Merkel's idiocy.

    How inconvenient.

    #ProtectionRacket
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,932
    MTimT said:

    No-one is suggesting that "we're all congenitally free-market oriented Thatcherites", but the centre has moved way to the right from where it was when we had the supertax, currency controls and nostalgia for Empire.

    Which of the facts I stated above do you dispute?

    PS Sounds like you have a pretty low opinion of the UK and the British. I suggest you travel a bit more, get some perspective and appreciate the UK for the wonderful place it is.

    Is it purely a coincidence that the centre of gravity shifted to the right during the period after the UK joined the Common Market? Those facts may be more connected than they appear.

    As for me, I've travelled and lived on several continents and have plenty of perspective about the UK. But I'm not complacent.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Indigo said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/04/britain-asked-for-more-cash-as-migrant-crisis-strains-eu-budget

    Britain will face demands to pay billions more into the EU budget following a vote to Remain in Europe on June 23 as Brussels looks to set to ask for more cash from national governments to pay for the unfolding migrant crisis.
    EU demands more cash because of Merkel's idiocy.

    How inconvenient.

    That's a delicious black swan event in this campaign! No economic risk from staying in the EU remain apologists?!

    Now on something we can all agree on - come on Andy Murray!
This discussion has been closed.