politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old
Comments
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If the polls are accurate. Which is still a big if.OllyT said:
No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.SandyRentool said:
Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?weejonnie said:
Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlierSandyRentool said:When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.
I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
Without this rather odd methodology change Brexit are 4% ahesd.0 -
I'd agree, but it depends on what is in it.Luckyguy1983 said:
To me this has 'danger' written all over it. It seems (like much of Brexit the movie, which I liked), to be an audition for a new economically liberal Toryism rather than an attempt to win a referendum.BenedictWhite said:
According to Gove, last night they will set out their economic plans next week. I hope so, I've been emailing furiously.OllyT said:
No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.SandyRentool said:
Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?weejonnie said:
Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlierSandyRentool said:When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.
I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
If it is all about labour market deregulation then Leave is buggered.
If it is about market liberalisation and removing some daft regulations combined with projecting the effect of new trade deals then it could be good.0 -
Noble Dragon People? Who do you think you are? Daenerys Targaryen?welshowl said:
Noble thoughtful Dragon of people apparently coming to the right conclusion, you mean?TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at the Ramshaggers Welsh subsample, Pulpstar's going to win his Wales bet.
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Don't bring her into the conversation, I'll go all of a quiver.TheScreamingEagles said:
Noble Dragon People? Who do you think you are? Daenerys Targaryen?welshowl said:
Noble thoughtful Dragon of people apparently coming to the right conclusion, you mean?TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at the Ramshaggers Welsh subsample, Pulpstar's going to win his Wales bet.
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So tell me what first attracted the far right/Neo Nazis to Brexit and Leave?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yeah we LEAVERs are ALL closet goose-steppersTheScreamingEagles said:Tsk, Vote Remain to send a message to the Neo Nazis
//twitter.com/suttonnick/status/739194359296495621
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Me too. She's fab in the film Me Before You.welshowl said:
Don't bring her into the conversation, I'll go all of a quiver.TheScreamingEagles said:
Noble Dragon People? Who do you think you are? Daenerys Targaryen?welshowl said:
Noble thoughtful Dragon of people apparently coming to the right conclusion, you mean?TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at the Ramshaggers Welsh subsample, Pulpstar's going to win his Wales bet.
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Anyhoo, that's the morning thread sorted out.
*Innocent Face*0 -
Remember, like REMAIN do currently, Anti-semitic Adolf believed in a single European Superstate!TheScreamingEagles said:
So tell me what first attracted the far right/Neo Nazis to Brexit and Leave?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yeah we LEAVERs are ALL closet goose-steppersTheScreamingEagles said:Tsk, Vote Remain to send a message to the Neo Nazis
//twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7391943592964956210 -
How many different changes of methodology have there been since May 2015.. ?
Who can trust any poll? I certainly trust none.. the only thing that is certain that trust in the Tories is falling, and unsurprising too. Some of the Tory MP's are a disgrace.0 -
I'm not sure it does depend what's in it, because whatever is or isn't in it, there will be something that the other side can frame as a drawback, raise questions over, pick holes in etc.BenedictWhite said:
I'd agree, but it depends on what is in it.Luckyguy1983 said:
To me this has 'danger' written all over it. It seems (like much of Brexit the movie, which I liked), to be an audition for a new economically liberal Toryism rather than an attempt to win a referendum.BenedictWhite said:
According to Gove, last night they will set out their economic plans next week. I hope so, I've been emailing furiously.OllyT said:
No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.SandyRentool said:
Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?weejonnie said:
Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlierSandyRentool said:When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.
I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
If it is all about labour market deregulation then Leave is buggered.
If it is about market liberalisation and removing some daft regulations combined with projecting the effect of new trade deals then it could be good.
It's been such a fascinating and deeply odd campaign. Leavers who don't really want to Leave, Remainers who don't want to Remain, everyone with subtly different and very difficult to read agendas.
I think it's in the lap of Providence now. Leave and Remain have given the hornet's nest a good poke, but the end result (assuming there's no significant workable plan for electoral fraud) is now almost entirely out of their hands.0 -
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Thing is that in the Purdah period they can't wheel out a treasury report to rubbish leaves manifesto which limits their movements somewhat.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure it does depend what's in it, because whatever is or isn't in it, there will be something that the other side can frame as a drawback, raise questions over, pick holes in etc.BenedictWhite said:
I'd agree, but it depends on what is in it.Luckyguy1983 said:
To me this has 'danger' written all over it. It seems (like much of Brexit the movie, which I liked), to be an audition for a new economically liberal Toryism rather than an attempt to win a referendum.BenedictWhite said:
According to Gove, last night they will set out their economic plans next week. I hope so, I've been emailing furiously.OllyT said:
No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.SandyRentool said:
Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?weejonnie said:
Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlierSandyRentool said:When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.
I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
If it is all about labour market deregulation then Leave is buggered.
If it is about market liberalisation and removing some daft regulations combined with projecting the effect of new trade deals then it could be good.
It's been such a fascinating and deeply odd campaign. Leavers who don't really want to Leave, Remainers who don't want to Remain, everyone with subtly different and very difficult to read agendas.
I think it's in the lap of Providence now. Leave and Remain have given the hornet's nest a good poke, but the end result (assuming there's no significant workable plan for electoral fraud) is now almost entirely out of their hands.
It makes it harder to pick holes in.0 -
Endgame for the Latvian homophobes.FrancisUrquhart said:
It's interesting to see how different MoS is to daily mail on BREXIT.TheScreamingEagles said:Tsk, Vote Remain to send a message to the Neo Nazis
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/739194359296495621
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Roughly what proportion of polling methodology changes result in a movement towards (as oppsed to away from) the mean of all other polls and what proportion should we expect in the absence of any herding tendency (as if....)?0
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The interesting thing about Monty Hall is that if Monty presented the game differently, but still logically the same, the vast majority of people would get it right, instead of the vast majority getting it wrong.foxinsoxuk said:
Remind me. If Monty Hall has a goat behind the second door...viewcode said:
It depends on how many goats conducted the survey.FrancisUrquhart said:So they pollster opens the door & offers you the results based on the new model, do you stick or switch?
Monty: Here's the game, three doors, two goats, one car. Now would you like to open one door, or open two?
Contestant: Well, two, obviously!
Monty: OK, pick your two doors, and I'll open the first one for you.
Contestant: [after opening the other door, not unduly surprised] Wow, I won the car!
A slight variation could be Monty saying "OK, pick a door... Now would you like to swap to picking [the other] two doors?"
Perhaps slightly fewer than in the above, but I reckon still a majority would do the logical thing.
Where the Monty Hall problem, as classically presented, throws most people is in the following areas:-
i) They've already picked a door. Once they've made a decision people don't like to change unless it's obvious they should.
ii) Why is Monty asking me to change? After all, he knows what's behind all doors. He must want me to lose.
iii) Cripes! He's just revealed a goat behind one of the other doors. Negative feelings of loss are re-inforced.
iv) The illusion of uniformity in probability. The seeming two remaining options [stick or open the remaining door] must be equiprobable in delivering the car, which takes me back to i). Except they're not!
So, emotions have overwhelmed the rational mind, leading to an incorrect decision.0 -
Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach0
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What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe0 -
The Sunday Times are reporting The Chilcot report will clear Alastair Campbell of any serious wrong doing and blame the spooks and Tony Blair.0
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I have a fairly strong feeling that if we vote to Leave it will force the rationalisation of Europe into two groups; the Union, with those in the currency, and the Free Trade Area with those who are not and who will not accept social intrusion and imposition.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure it does depend what's in it, because whatever is or isn't in it, there will be something that the other side can frame as a drawback, raise questions over, pick holes in etc.
It's been such a fascinating and deeply odd campaign. Leavers who don't really want to Leave, Remainers who don't want to Remain, everyone with subtly different and very difficult to read agendas.
I think it's in the lap of Providence now. Leave and Remain have given the hornet's nest a good poke, but the end result (assuming there's no significant workable plan for electoral fraud) is now almost entirely out of their hands.
The people around the continent will force their politicians to make their minds up. No halfway in, halfway out.0 -
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe0 -
Well, if the Cameronites are toppled and a Vote Leaver does take his place (not the disappointment it's the hope etc.), I'm very pleased that an economic plan will be there. I'm just not sure I see a case for a grand unveiling at this point. The civil service will still be working overtime to rebut it, it just won't come with a Treasury stamp. I also hope it refrains from feeling like a jubilant victory lap before the game has been won.BenedictWhite said:
Thing is that in the Purdah period they can't wheel out a treasury report to rubbish leaves manifesto which limits their movements somewhat.
It makes it harder to pick holes in.0 -
At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach
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In other news, I was down at B&Q today and they said there is a nationwide shortage of whitewash. Apparently massive bulk order came in, like nothing they had every seen before.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sunday Times are reporting The Chilcot report will clear Alastair Campbell of any serious wrong doing and blame the spooks and Tony Blair.
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I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe0 -
The story is hostile to leave but the point I am making is the two papers seem to be on opposite sidestlg86 said:
At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach
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Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure there is time for any convincing now. It's GOTV time. Leave need to massively push for their angry hordes to be registered, able, and definitely voting (how they do that I don't know), and Leave need to do whatever they can to mobilise their supporters, like students.Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
I've heard and seen nothing that convinces me Leave is in the lead. I think that Remain are accepting and perhaps even encouraging this narrative, to scare the Remain-minded and to induce complacency amongst Leavers. It may or may not work, but it's worth trying.
What convinces me 'Leave' are doing well is that every vox pop you hear -and there are plenty-parrot the 'Leave' campaign. Turkey-£350 million a week-NHS going down the toilet -immigration. They're making all the connections and then the immigration figures came out. Couldn't be worse for 'Remain' which is why I think this could be 'Leave's' high water mark.0 -
My gut instinct is that shifting the debate back onto economics is a mistake for Leave.BenedictWhite said:
According to Gove, last night they will set out their economic plans next week. I hope so, I've been emailing furiously.OllyT said:
No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.SandyRentool said:
Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?weejonnie said:
Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlierSandyRentool said:When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.
I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.0 -
If you have seen the pledges, they do not amount to an economic plan.Luckyguy1983 said:Well, if the Cameronites are toppled and a Vote Leaver does take his place (not the disappointment it's the hope etc.), I'm very pleased that an economic plan will be there.
We'll spend more on stuff you like, and less on stuff you don't.
Even Ed would be embarrassed to call it a plan.0 -
If that scumbag gets off scot free it will be just as meaningful as the Hutton enquiry. A neutron star of whitewash.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sunday Times are reporting The Chilcot report will clear Alastair Campbell of any serious wrong doing and blame the spooks and Tony Blair.
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I believe that is going to happen irrespective of the result. The EU is facing big changes over the next few yearschestnut said:
I have a fairly strong feeling that if we vote to Leave it will force the rationalisation of Europe into two groups; the Union, with those in the currency, and the Free Trade Area with those who are not and who will not accept social intrusion and imposition.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure it does depend what's in it, because whatever is or isn't in it, there will be something that the other side can frame as a drawback, raise questions over, pick holes in etc.
It's been such a fascinating and deeply odd campaign. Leavers who don't really want to Leave, Remainers who don't want to Remain, everyone with subtly different and very difficult to read agendas.
I think it's in the lap of Providence now. Leave and Remain have given the hornet's nest a good poke, but the end result (assuming there's no significant workable plan for electoral fraud) is now almost entirely out of their hands.
The people around the continent will force their politicians to make their minds up. No halfway in, halfway out.0 -
Not sure why.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
We leave, we impose a Citizenship requirement on welfare to go with the visa requirement for work and the migrants would probably stay in Dublin where EU rules would compel the Irish to treat them equally on welfare and work.
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The punter who put in £10k. The Inland Revenue should check if it was taxed money.0
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I think the broad idea is to neutralise the economy issue whilst owning the media grid.Luckyguy1983 said:
Well, if the Cameronites are toppled and a Vote Leaver does take his place (not the disappointment it's the hope etc.), I'm very pleased that an economic plan will be there. I'm just not sure I see a case for a grand unveiling at this point. The civil service will still be working overtime to rebut it, it just won't come with a Treasury stamp. I also hope it refrains from feeling like a jubilant victory lap before the game has been won.BenedictWhite said:
Thing is that in the Purdah period they can't wheel out a treasury report to rubbish leaves manifesto which limits their movements somewhat.
It makes it harder to pick holes in.0 -
Why? Both the UK and Republic are outside Schengen.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe0 -
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe0 -
You cannot possibly believe Campbell started the Iraq War. You can be as critical as you like that he loyally stood by that evil Bliar but surely that is not the same as being responsible for the war.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that scumbag gets off scot free it will be just as meaningful as the Hutton enquiry. A neutron star of whitewash.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sunday Times are reporting The Chilcot report will clear Alastair Campbell of any serious wrong doing and blame the spooks and Tony Blair.
If I remember correctly the Chair of the JIC was later promoted to head MI5 or MI6. Great !
The Intelligence that could not distinguish between an Ice Cream van and a mobile biological factory.
I wonder Colin Powell is today with his UNSC speech.0 -
And then you might like to ask why the medical reports of David Kelly have been closed for 70 years by the Hutton report:Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that scumbag gets off scot free it will be just as meaningful as the Hutton enquiry. A neutron star of whitewash.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sunday Times are reporting The Chilcot report will clear Alastair Campbell of any serious wrong doing and blame the spooks and Tony Blair.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/jan/25/david-kelly-suicide-hutton-inquiry
Nothing to hide there, surely not! Its utterly pathetic. And to think when the Chilcott report started off its work in 2009, it was going to report in 18 months. Not to mention the all too convenient reporting after the EU referendum is out of the way on the 23rd June. The establishment, as on so many other things are taking us for fools. Its time to send them a bloody nose after all their economic bull$hit fearmongering during the course of this campaign.0 -
I genuinely believe that the best hope of getting the unenthusiastic Remainers out on polling day and getting a good turnout is the possibility that Leave could win.BenedictWhite said:
If I were in Leave HQ I would agree, I'd also keep hammering away to get the biggest lead I could.TheScreamingEagles said:
I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.Sean_F said:
It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.Mortimer said:
Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
However my experience is that remainers are very unenthusiastic. That will hit remain on the day as well.0 -
And at the Grauniad it seems.BenedictWhite said:
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
There is also the slight matter of how millions of undesirables without paperwork are going to get into RoI in the furst place given it is about 150 miles by sea from mainland Europe and sirlines and ferries take a dim view of stowaways since PIRA days never mind the modern terrorist nutjobs.0 -
Why do you think it is a high water mark? Do you think leave is going to tail off?Roger said:Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure there is time for any convincing now. It's GOTV time. Leave need to massively push for their angry hordes to be registered, able, and definitely voting (how they do that I don't know), and Leave need to do whatever they can to mobilise their supporters, like students.Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
I've heard and seen nothing that convinces me Leave is in the lead. I think that Remain are accepting and perhaps even encouraging this narrative, to scare the Remain-minded and to induce complacency amongst Leavers. It may or may not work, but it's worth trying.
What convinces me 'Leave' are doing well is that every vox pop you hear -and there are plenty-parrot the 'Leave' campaign. Turkey-£350 million a week-NHS going down the toilet -immigration. They're making all the connections and then the immigration figures came out. Couldn't be worse for 'Remain' which is why I think this could be 'Leave's' high water mark.0 -
Indeed; the Common Travel Area is far older than Schengen.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Why? Both the UK and Republic are outside Schengen.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe0 -
Not if they can neutralise it or look like they have a plan.OllyT said:
My gut instinct is that shifting the debate back onto economics is a mistake for Leave.BenedictWhite said:
According to Gove, last night they will set out their economic plans next week. I hope so, I've been emailing furiously.OllyT said:
No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.SandyRentool said:
Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?weejonnie said:
Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlierSandyRentool said:When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.
I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
It does have to be one that unions will accept though.0 -
Because it is the only thing giving them hopeBenedictWhite said:
Why do you think it is a high water mark? Do you think leave is going to tail off?Roger said:Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure there is time for any convincing now. It's GOTV time. Leave need to massively push for their angry hordes to be registered, able, and definitely voting (how they do that I don't know), and Leave need to do whatever they can to mobilise their supporters, like students.Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
I've heard and seen nothing that convinces me Leave is in the lead. I think that Remain are accepting and perhaps even encouraging this narrative, to scare the Remain-minded and to induce complacency amongst Leavers. It may or may not work, but it's worth trying.
What convinces me 'Leave' are doing well is that every vox pop you hear -and there are plenty-parrot the 'Leave' campaign. Turkey-£350 million a week-NHS going down the toilet -immigration. They're making all the connections and then the immigration figures came out. Couldn't be worse for 'Remain' which is why I think this could be 'Leave's' high water mark.0 -
The pledge card is not what Gove was talking about. Pledge cards are always in the eye of the beholder. They are somewhat more practical than a pledge tablet though...Scott_P said:
If you have seen the pledges, they do not amount to an economic plan.Luckyguy1983 said:Well, if the Cameronites are toppled and a Vote Leaver does take his place (not the disappointment it's the hope etc.), I'm very pleased that an economic plan will be there.
We'll spend more on stuff you like, and less on stuff you don't.
Even Ed would be embarrassed to call it a plan. 0 -
All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?BenedictWhite said:
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?
0 -
Even a friend of Campbell is calling it 'The Campbell whitewash'Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that scumbag gets off scot free it will be just as meaningful as the Hutton enquiry. A neutron star of whitewash.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sunday Times are reporting The Chilcot report will clear Alastair Campbell of any serious wrong doing and blame the spooks and Tony Blair.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7392004557508485130 -
Might be something in this.OllyT said:
I genuinely believe that the best hope of getting the unenthusiastic Remainers out on polling day and getting a good turnout is the possibility that Leave could win.BenedictWhite said:
If I were in Leave HQ I would agree, I'd also keep hammering away to get the biggest lead I could.TheScreamingEagles said:
I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.Sean_F said:
It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.Mortimer said:
Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
However my experience is that remainers are very unenthusiastic. That will hit remain on the day as well.
Literally everything else doesn't seem to be working for Remain.0 -
@newsundayherald: Scottish Labour consulting on becoming an 'independent' party
Full story in tomorrow's paper0 -
I know, but I wouldn't assume the papers are on opposite sides. I can imagine Mail/MoS readers getting annoyed to see Leave being smeared with association with the Far Right.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The story is hostile to leave but the point I am making is the two papers seem to be on opposite sidestlg86 said:
At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach
0 -
Unenthusiastic Remainers are surely by definition not too bothered by LEAVE.Mortimer said:
Might be something in this.OllyT said:
I genuinely believe that the best hope of getting the unenthusiastic Remainers out on polling day and getting a good turnout is the possibility that Leave could win.BenedictWhite said:
If I were in Leave HQ I would agree, I'd also keep hammering away to get the biggest lead I could.TheScreamingEagles said:
I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.Sean_F said:
It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.Mortimer said:
Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
However my experience is that remainers are very unenthusiastic. That will hit remain on the day as well.
Literally everything else doesn't seem to be working for Remain.0 -
Look, if we seal the Inner Irish border and impose trade tariffs on them their economy would collapse we are not planning to do it and they are not stupid enough to goad us into doing it.williamglenn said:
All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?BenedictWhite said:
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?0 -
Corbynism sweeping the nation..Scott_P said:@newsundayherald: Scottish Labour consulting on becoming an 'independent' party
Full story in tomorrow's paper0 -
AgreedOllyT said:
I genuinely believe that the best hope of getting the unenthusiastic Remainers out on polling day and getting a good turnout is the possibility that Leave could win.BenedictWhite said:
If I were in Leave HQ I would agree, I'd also keep hammering away to get the biggest lead I could.TheScreamingEagles said:
I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.Sean_F said:
It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.Mortimer said:
Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
However my experience is that remainers are very unenthusiastic. That will hit remain on the day as well.0 -
I wonder what they'd call themselves.Scott_P said:@newsundayherald: Scottish Labour consulting on becoming an 'independent' party
Full story in tomorrow's paper0 -
I haven't seen them. Lists of pledges are utterly cringe-worthy, especially when those making them have no guaranteed ability to implement them even in the event of winning.Scott_P said:
If you have seen the pledges, they do not amount to an economic plan.Luckyguy1983 said:Well, if the Cameronites are toppled and a Vote Leaver does take his place (not the disappointment it's the hope etc.), I'm very pleased that an economic plan will be there.
We'll spend more on stuff you like, and less on stuff you don't.
Even Ed would be embarrassed to call it a plan.
0 -
The Scottish Un-national PartyRobD said:
I wonder what they'd call themselves.Scott_P said:@newsundayherald: Scottish Labour consulting on becoming an 'independent' party
Full story in tomorrow's paper0 -
'Little' Ireland would not be alone and you're not seeing this in the context of the broader negotiations with the EU. Your attitude towards the Irish seems to be they they are little more than a colonial possession that got away.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Look, if we seal the Inner Irish border and impose trade tariffs on them their economy would collapse we are not planning to do it and they are not stupid enough to goad us into doing it.williamglenn said:
All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?BenedictWhite said:
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?0 -
Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics0 -
Looks like they rounded DOWN the % for LEAVE?TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics0 -
-
Am I psychic or what - Left-wing thugs will promote violence and then blame the victims - happening right now at a County in the USA.tlg86 said:
At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach
0 -
The Observer being a Remain sympathising paper; I can only interpret that as adding weight to the theory that Leave complacency and Remain fear are being fostered deliberately by a largely imagined polling rally.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
0 -
OT.. while the jumper is nice, I think this is all round a better pictureTheScreamingEagles said:Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
0 -
Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If the polls are accurate. Which is still a big if.OllyT said:
No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.SandyRentool said:
Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?weejonnie said:
Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlierSandyRentool said:When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.
I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
Without this rather odd methodology change Brexit are 4% ahesd.
You didn't seem too bothered about the accuracy of the polls when you were making your "You're not singing any more" comments recently.
Pollsters have their reputations and future business on the line so if they have changed their methodology then they clearly believe that the old methodology showing Brexit 4 points ahead is wrong.
The reasons for changing it seem pretty sound to me, perhaps you could expand on what you find is "odd" about it.0 -
Don't know about that. There is no residual love of the union for the EU (like there may well have been for the UK). Besides I know some unenthusiastic remainers who've already voted. Leave.OllyT said:
I genuinely believe that the best hope of getting the unenthusiastic Remainers out on polling day and getting a good turnout is the possibility that Leave could win.BenedictWhite said:
If I were in Leave HQ I would agree, I'd also keep hammering away to get the biggest lead I could.TheScreamingEagles said:
I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.Sean_F said:
It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.Mortimer said:
Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
However my experience is that remainers are very unenthusiastic. That will hit remain on the day as well.
0 -
I watched Captain America today.
A real Rorschach test for the EU ref.0 -
"There is no such thing as EU Money. There is only taxpayers' money!"RobD said:
OT.. while the jumper is nice, I think this is all round a better pictureTheScreamingEagles said:Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics 0 -
Was it any good?Pulpstar said:I watched Captain America today.
A real Rorschach test for the EU ref.0 -
How about "Red Tories"...Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Scottish Un-national PartyRobD said:
I wonder what they'd call themselves.Scott_P said:@newsundayherald: Scottish Labour consulting on becoming an 'independent' party
Full story in tomorrow's paper 0 -
Ireland are as independent of tbe UK as Lesotho are of South Africa. De Jure yes, de facto sort of. Like it or not their fate is bound up inextricably with ours.williamglenn said:
'Little' Ireland would not be alone and you're not seeing this in the context of the broader negotiations with the EU. Your attitude towards the Irish seems to be they they are little more than a colonial possession that got away.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Look, if we seal the Inner Irish border and impose trade tariffs on them their economy would collapse we are not planning to do it and they are not stupid enough to goad us into doing it.williamglenn said:
All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?BenedictWhite said:
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?0 -
The trouble with enquiries on well-known issues is that everyone already has an opinion and judges the enquiry by whether it comes to the same conclusion. I think they're largely a waste of time - fine for something like a train crash, where we don't really know whatt happened, but how many people still have an open mind on Iraq?surbiton said:
You cannot possibly believe Campbell started the Iraq War. You can be as critical as you like that he loyally stood by that evil Bliar but surely that is not the same as being responsible for the war.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that scumbag gets off scot free it will be just as meaningful as the Hutton enquiry. A neutron star of whitewash.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sunday Times are reporting The Chilcot report will clear Alastair Campbell of any serious wrong doing and blame the spooks and Tony Blair.
If I remember correctly the Chair of the JIC was later promoted to head MI5 or MI6. Great !
The Intelligence that could not distinguish between an Ice Cream van and a mobile biological factory.
I wonder Colin Powell is today with his UNSC speech.0 -
It applies to all citizens that have settled not all that could. We would assume that works both ways.williamglenn said:
All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?BenedictWhite said:
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?0 -
Civil War?Pulpstar said:I watched Captain America today.
A real Rorschach test for the EU ref.
PS - The Opinium Welsh subsample has Wales backing Brexit0 -
Not if it is truetlg86 said:
I know, but I wouldn't assume the papers are on opposite sides. I can imagine Mail/MoS readers getting annoyed to see Leave being smeared with association with the Far Right.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The story is hostile to leave but the point I am making is the two papers seem to be on opposite sidestlg86 said:
At first sight that looks hostile to Leave, but it might make people think "so what?" Are the far right a thing any more? If the MoS were reporting that their readers might lose their jobs etc etc, then that would be much more of a problem for Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mail on Sunday front page 'Far right in plot to hijack Brexit' - Neo Nazis, violent thugs and racists infiltrating Vote Leave. Very different from the Daily Mail's approach
0 -
I've updated the thread with the Observer report of the poll0
-
I hold him equally as guilty as Blar.surbiton said:
You cannot possibly believe Campbell started the Iraq War. You can be as critical as you like that he loyally stood by that evil Bliar but surely that is not the same as being responsible for the war.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that scumbag gets off scot free it will be just as meaningful as the Hutton enquiry. A neutron star of whitewash.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sunday Times are reporting The Chilcot report will clear Alastair Campbell of any serious wrong doing and blame the spooks and Tony Blair.
If I remember correctly the Chair of the JIC was later promoted to head MI5 or MI6. Great !
The Intelligence that could not distinguish between an Ice Cream van and a mobile biological factory.
I wonder Colin Powell is today with his UNSC speech.0 -
Nah, mine is the best, I like people who wear sober, plain, and boring clothes.RobD said:
OT.. while the jumper is nice, I think this is all round a better pictureTheScreamingEagles said:Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics0 -
That's a supposition, not a fact.BenedictWhite said:
It applies to all citizens that have settled not all that could. We would assume that works both ways.williamglenn said:
All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?BenedictWhite said:
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?0 -
-
Shame the picture is cropped and you can't see her shoesTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, mine is the best, I like people who wear sober, plain, and boring clothes.RobD said:
OT.. while the jumper is nice, I think this is all round a better pictureTheScreamingEagles said:Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics 0 -
I've already gone into this issue twice on this board and do not want to go thru it again. Instead I suggest you contact the Taoiseach's Office and ask them to furnish you with an explanation.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Look, if we seal the Inner Irish border and impose trade tariffs on them their economy would collapse we are not planning to do it and they are not stupid enough to goad us into doing it.williamglenn said:
All these sensible compromises are things that would have to be negotiated and viewed from the other side might be regarded as concessions to make our life easier. What would we give in return?BenedictWhite said:
People like to make a thing of it on here.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I would have thought checks on the ferries and airports between GB and Ireland would be enough to sort that out. No need to do anything on the county boundariesBenedictWhite said:
Good question. If I was in France and wanted to get to the UK to work, I would come straight here claiming to be on holiday and overstay the visit.Scott_P said:What does he know...
@JoeyforEU: Bertie Ahern: UK would have to reimpose Irish border after Brexit https://t.co/eEK13F9ZOe
Some of the more excitable Brexiters have been quoting the Vienna Convention of 1969 to argue that acquired rights of British citizens will be protected. Again this cuts both ways. If the EU's starting position is that the UK is obliged to maintain all current EU citizens' rights to settle in the UK, what will we offer to make them change their opinion?0 -
Did 1) actually happen? I though the complaint was that it was relentlessly negative?BenedictWhite said:0 -
Well for a start the Observer seems to have ignored it but principally any question along the lines of donyou think racial equality legislation goes far enough or two far is not going to get honest answers from those who think 'too far' in the current climate if it is in any way traceable.OllyT said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If the polls are accurate. Which is still a big if.OllyT said:
No doubt things have swung towards Leave recently but by the same token in the last week Leave have played the immigration card to destruction and pushed on with the saving £350m a week line and yet they are still losing in an online poll.SandyRentool said:
Thanks. So basically Leave has had the momentum (if not the Momentum!) for some time. Have Remain got anything else to throw at the campaign to switch things back in their direction?weejonnie said:
Ipsos Mori 17th May? 49-39 ==> 55-37 - although the consensus is that it was an outlierSandyRentool said:When was the last poll to show a swing to Remain not resulting from a methodological change?
So , to reverse your question, what have Leave got left?.
I expect that in the home straight Remain will ramp up the economic risks focus and if this referendum does follow past experiences there will be a swing back to the status quo in the latter stages. I would have thought that Leave we need to be showing an across the board lead of about 5% at this stage to be feeling confident.
Without this rather odd methodology change Brexit are 4% ahesd.
You didn't seem too bothered about the accuracy of the polls when you were making your "You're not singing any more" comments recently.
Pollsters have their reputations and future business on the line so if they have changed their methodology then they clearly believe that the old methodology showing Brexit 4 points ahead is wrong.
The reasons for changing it seem pretty sound to me, perhaps you could expand on what you find is "odd" about it.0 -
The Observer have rounded DOWN the LEAVE %.TheScreamingEagles said:I've updated the thread with the Observer report of the poll
42.6 REMAIN
40.9 LEAVE0 -
I agree too. Or to put it another way, it's a minimum price of entry. They have to at least believe (not BeLeave) in the possibility to have any hope of them voting. Stands to reason. There is no point in voting only to make a Remain vote more emphatic - that's a reason not to vote. You may want the EU to win, but surely few in their right minds want to give them a ringing endorsement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
AgreedOllyT said:
I genuinely believe that the best hope of getting the unenthusiastic Remainers out on polling day and getting a good turnout is the possibility that Leave could win.BenedictWhite said:
If I were in Leave HQ I would agree, I'd also keep hammering away to get the biggest lead I could.TheScreamingEagles said:
I spoke to someone at Vote Leave on Thursday, he reckoned Leave needed to be about 7% ahead in the polls before he would feel confident about Leave winning.Sean_F said:
It's hard to tell. It may be that there will be a swing back to Remain in the last fortnight.Mortimer said:
Just when I'm feeling jittery, Rogerdamus comes up trumps and reinvigorates my faith in Leave winning!Roger said:
I think Leave is winning the negative campaign at the moment. The question is whether they've peaked too early.Mortimer said:Tricky one this - the methodology change sounds sensible. The increased DK swing to Leave is my biggest takeaway. In line with supplementaries of other polls which suggest Project Fear has not worked/is not working.
Yet Al Campbell thinks the single-track economy argument will swing it for Remain. Not what we're seeing in the polls....
I can't help but think that this is the high water mark for Leave after the immigration figures and Remain should have a stronger negative campaign for the last two weeks with any number of experts telling of the disaster Brexit would bring.
They wasted time using them when no one was listening. Now they are and we've still Saatchis research to look forward to.
Or there may now be a bandwagon for Leave.
He said the polls weren't factoring in Northern Ireland and Expats, combined with Gibraltar he thought that would be worth 2% to Remain, then about a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people back the status quo.
However my experience is that remainers are very unenthusiastic. That will hit remain on the day as well.0 -
They're journalists.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
You weren't expecting accuracy were you?0 -
3. High turnoutBenedictWhite said:0 -
Maggie saw the EC, later EU, for what it really was later in her career and after she left office.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, mine is the best, I like people who wear sober, plain, and boring clothes.RobD said:
OT.. while the jumper is nice, I think this is all round a better pictureTheScreamingEagles said:Well this is odd, The Observer are reporting the Opinium poll as a 3 point lead for LEAVE
The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics0 -
Looks OK to me...Scott_P said:0
