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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

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  • Very interesting, even allowing for the fact that OGH is implacably opposed to the very idea of averaging polls.
    There is always the rule, the trend is your friend.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Wicket! Finished before lunch?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    PB has discussed the super injunction enough, directly and indirectly. So it is now off limits. The spam trap has been updated, and anyone unable to adhere to the rules will find their ability to post instantly will be removed.

    http://www.relatably.com/m/img/innocent-memes/innocent-panda_o_637246.jpg
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/733803565060345856

    Even funnier 'cos you can imagine Monty being absolutely ragin' but unable to say anything.

    LOL....I can just imagine the reaction !!!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Which got more media time? My guess would be the economy in the broadcast media.
    Does it matter? I mean, to say the polls haven't moved evidently cuts both ways.
  • Does it matter? I mean, to say the polls haven't moved evidently cuts both ways.
    Only in the sense that the economic factor does not seem (according to Prof0 have had much effect but immigration if it became the main theme, might change things. Lots of ifs and buts and worth watching out for.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,587
    Sandpit said:

    Wicket! Finished before lunch?

    The last time England enforced the follow-on the match ended as a draw. Wellington, 2014.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Wreckage definitely from the Egyptair plane now found, rumours that divers have found one of the two black boxes. Developing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    As I predicted...

    Some of the BBC's highest paid actors will avoid having to disclose their salaries even if they breach the £450,000 limit laid out in ministers' rules last week - because they are not 'full-time' staff.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3602203/BBC-s-highest-paid-actors-able-salaries-secret-Loophole-means-stars-earning-450-000-avoid-revealing-pay-aren-t-time.html

    TBH the amount they spend on "talent" is kinda of an irrelevance, when you can blow throw 100's of million on crap IT, programme rights cost a fortune and making programmes can easily cost many many millions.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Only in the sense that the economic factor does not seem (according to Prof0 have had much effect but immigration if it became the main theme, might change things. Lots of ifs and buts and worth watching out for.
    Vote Leave are squeamish about immigration, Nigel less so. Its the unmentionable elephant in the room, interesting to see how he handles it on ITV. My view is that its a big concern to plenty, the majority probably, and if handled correctly will skewer Cameron and Remain.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The last time England enforced the follow-on the match ended as a draw. Wellington, 2014.
    Yes, that got rained off. Fingers crossed for good weather today!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited May 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, that got rained off. Fingers crossed for good weather today!
    With the way the ball is swinging and seaming, I don't think even Sir Geoffrey would fancy a bat on this track.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,587
    edited May 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, that got rained off. Fingers crossed for good weather today!
    Forecast’s not good for this afternoon, is it! Much better tomorrow.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2016
    On Topic:

    I'm amazed to see Newt Gingrich as short as evens favourite with Betfair Sportsbook to become the GOP Veep nominee. How and why did he suddenly re-appear and is Trump really serious about becoming the next POTUS?

    Personally, I'm happy to invest a couple of quid on Rod Crosby's splendidly named suggestion Martha McSally at around 50/1.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    F1: Twitter rumours, but entertaining: they reckon Rosberg could go to Ferrari, and Alonso to Mercedes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Austrian presidential vote is tomorrow. Could be interesting:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36343623
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,534
    Osborne denies there is a housing boom in September 2013:

    ' Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has denied that the UK housing market is overheating.

    Answering questions at the annual meeting of the Institute of Directors he said: "Let's not pretend there's a housing boom".

    The chancellor said that he, along with the Bank of England, was "alert to the risks" of a housing boom.

    He said that the Bank of England had a responsibility to look at risks as they emerge in the economy "like asset price bubbles". '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24144844

    House prices rise 24% between September 2013 and March 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/chartimage?uri=/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2016/f20cbab1

    March 2016, Osborne claims that Brexit might slow house price rises:

    ' A UK vote to leave the European Union would cause an "immediate economic shock" that could hold back growth in house prices, the chancellor has said.

    In the event of a vote for Brexit, by 2018, houses could be worth up to 18% less than if the UK voted to remain, George Osborne told the BBC. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36344425
  • F1: Twitter rumours, but entertaining: they reckon Rosberg could go to Ferrari, and Alonso to Mercedes.

    Morris - that's presumably at the end of the season. Certainly Alonso must be desperate to leave McLaren.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    As I predicted...

    Some of the BBC's highest paid actors will avoid having to disclose their salaries even if they breach the £450,000 limit laid out in ministers' rules last week - because they are not 'full-time' staff.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3602203/BBC-s-highest-paid-actors-able-salaries-secret-Loophole-means-stars-earning-450-000-avoid-revealing-pay-aren-t-time.html

    TBH the amount they spend on "talent" is kinda of an irrelevance, when you can blow throw 100's of million on crap IT, programme rights cost a fortune and making programmes can easily cost many many millions.

    Not full time staff is the eye opener there. This despite lots of granny's going to jail for failure to cough up to keep theses "stars" in the standard of bath robe to which they have become accustomed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Putney, indeed (to both).

    Raikkonen, Button, Palmer seem potential exits from the sport at the season end. Rosberg could shift, perhaps also Alonso/Grosjean. Hulkenberg and Bottas seem a bit less likely.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,587

    Osborne denies there is a housing boom in September 2013:

    ' Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has denied that the UK housing market is overheating.

    Answering questions at the annual meeting of the Institute of Directors he said: "Let's not pretend there's a housing boom".

    The chancellor said that he, along with the Bank of England, was "alert to the risks" of a housing boom.

    He said that the Bank of England had a responsibility to look at risks as they emerge in the economy "like asset price bubbles". '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24144844

    House prices rise 24% between September 2013 and March 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/chartimage?uri=/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2016/f20cbab1

    March 2016, Osborne claims that Brexit might slow house price rises:

    ' A UK vote to leave the European Union would cause an "immediate economic shock" that could hold back growth in house prices, the chancellor has said.

    In the event of a vote for Brexit, by 2018, houses could be worth up to 18% less than if the UK voted to remain, George Osborne told the BBC. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36344425

    I’m sure this, or something like it, has already been posted by someone else, but I’m sure I know people who would not be unhappy if house prices fell.
    And a lot of people, who aren’t using their houses as collateral, and don’t propose to move any time soon, wouldn’t worry too much.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2016
    It looks like OGH, TSE et al have decided on a good old lie-in this morning!
    Or should I say this afternoon?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited May 2016

    F1: Twitter rumours, but entertaining: they reckon Rosberg could go to Ferrari, and Alonso to Mercedes.

    Ha!

    Oddly I mentioned a potential move the other day as Rosberg is up for grabs end of this season and Hamilton not until 2018. ( unless they want to do a very expensive buyout). Moving to a lesser car though even if it is a Ferrari mmmmm. I wonder how Vettel might view that. Two bigger egos in one team?

    Personally the one they want to move out of that team is Lauda. He has turned into a jumped up self righteous dick since his employment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    2 Down......
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    It looks like OGH, TSE et al have decided on a good old lie-in this morning!
    Or should I say this afternoon?

    It's a great pity @Cyclefree's thought provoking article got a whole two hours before being replaced.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Apologies if this has already been mentioned but PB's favourite Christmas joke has today been referenced in the Daily Telegraph:

    "The people of the Midlands know there’s more to them than claiming “a kipper tie” is a hot drink with milk."

    The influence of this site and, at least some of its denizens, can no longer be doubted. A proud day for us all.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/andy-burnhams-right---its-grim-up-north---but-thats-no-bad-thing/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    edited May 2016
    Mr. Moses, Vettel will not welcome up, if only because he's genuinely friends with Raikkonen (very rare in an F1 team for drivers to get along that well).

    Mercedes are the best team right now but there are regulation changes for next year. I think they're significant but not on the scale of the hybrid introduction. Nevertheless, regulation changes do afford an opportunity for teams to make rapid gains relative to the fastest, so it *may* be a clever move if Rosberg does go to Ferrari.

    Edited extra bit: welcome it*. Impressive typo.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    On Topic:

    I'm amazed to see Newt Gingrich as short as evens favourite with Betfair Sportsbook to become the GOP Veep nominee. How and why did he suddenly re-appear and is Trump really serious about becoming the next POTUS?

    Personally, I'm happy to invest a couple of quid on Rod Crosby's splendidly named suggestion Martha McSally at around 50/1.

    If you're looking for someone who really should be the First Female POTUS, this lady is bloody impressive. No whingeing and whining about poor downtrodden wimmin'. Just quitely getting on and achieving amazing things.

    One of the most inspirational speeches I've seen in a long time. And a genuinely nice person too, it seems.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwOEycYVKqc

    She can sing real nice too... (^_-)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyIywuVHRUg
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Llama, are they claiming the Midlands are in the north? They're clearly southern.

    Miss Plato, I missed that entirely [did go back to read it].
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    2 Down......

    Another day, another crossword...

    Anyway, just to mention that Remain have a street stall in the middle of Leeds today. Probably my fellow Labourites suffering from false consciousness.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited May 2016

    It's a great pity @Cyclefree's thought provoking article got a whole two hours before being replaced.
    Obviously the running of the site is nothing to do with us.

    Given that we are often told that these headers are very difficult to write, I thought it a bit of a poor show really even though I have only ever written only one myself and can fully understand that point.

    Hope cycle is back soon to post another and allowed more "pixel time" :smile:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited May 2016

    Another day, another crossword...

    I know, its fun isn't it....nobody is allowed to provide the clues, as they are super injuncted ;-)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    On Topic:

    I'm amazed to see Newt Gingrich as short as evens favourite with Betfair Sportsbook to become the GOP Veep nominee. How and why did he suddenly re-appear and is Trump really serious about becoming the next POTUS?

    Personally, I'm happy to invest a couple of quid on Rod Crosby's splendidly named suggestion Martha McSally at around 50/1.

    Newt is right to be short odds - he's been on Team Trump from early on and he brings 'experience' without being too establishment (yes, I know he was a Washington insider for many years but only in a proto-Tea Party way). But evens is ludicrous given how many options there are, and Trump's at times unorthodox methods.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    He must be Leave, surely.

    Dave Nellist is for LEAVE.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited May 2016

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/733803565060345856

    Even funnier 'cos you can imagine Monty being absolutely ragin' but unable to say anything.

    For those who don't know, Colin Montgomerie never won a 'Major' golf tournament.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    For those who don't know, Colin Montgomerie never won a 'Major' golf tournament.
    :lol: I didn't know that
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    :lol: I didn't know that
    Monty is one of those Great British Sporting Losers...

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Moses_ said:

    Not full time staff is the eye opener there. This despite lots of granny's going to jail for failure to cough up to keep theses "stars" in the standard of bath robe to which they have become accustomed.
    Of course actors are not full-time, and as the Mail article says, the problem is that at the moment a lot of stars do cut-price work for the BBC -- their fear is not revealing how much they are paid but how little. Take Sherlock -- Hollywood pays Benedict Cumberbatch a sight more than the BBC does. The BBC could not have matched Ricky Gervais's US rates for Extras.

    If there is a problem with excessive BBC salaries, it is more likely to be lower down, in the marzipan layers, with people who do good but not exceptional work, and in management.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    Almost got 3 down...dropped.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Welsh Assembly Lib Dem member Kirsty Wlliams is inclined to take up an offer to be Secretary for Education in the Labour Cabinet.

    There is a special conference of Welsh Lib Dems today to endorse (or otherwise) the proposal.

    Kirsty Williams claims that
    "The agreement enables the implementation of key Welsh Liberal Democrat policy priorities that the party campaigned on during the recent election, ensuring that:

    - Infant class sizes are reduced to a maximum of 25;
    - There are more nurses, in more settings, through an extended nurse staffing levels law;
    - 20,000 extra affordable homes are funded;
    - A new ‘Rent to Own’ housing model is introduced; and
    - Mental Health discrimination is ended."

    Will such cimmitments get honoured?

    Should the Lib Dems agree this "coalition" arrangement with Welsh Labour?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Evershed, hard to see any downsides for the Lib Dems becoming a junior coalition partner.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    dr_spyn said:

    Almost got 3 down...dropped.

    Seven letters? Fumbled.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    Here's a crossword clue for you all.

    Team with a new owner.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    For those who don't know, Colin Montgomerie never won a 'Major' golf tournament.
    Several Ryder Cups though, often seemingly single-handed through presence alone.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Foxinsox wrote:

    "When talking about minorities at medical school admissions panels, I do like to advocate positive discrimination for white males from non selective state schools (like myself). We are about 40% of the population and 15% of medical school intake. "

    If your medical school admissions panel has listened to you, then they are in trouble.

    Positive discrimination is actually illegal in the UK.

    The only thing that is legally permitted (since 2011) is positive action -- given two equally matched candidates, it is permissible to give a job or a medical school place to the more highly disadvantaged.

    "positive action" lol positive discrimination by another name......
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    It takes a heart of stone:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3601681/The-great-celebrity-house-price-slump-Suddenly-stars-t-shift-mansions-no-matter-millions-lop-price-Hankies-out.html

    The ripple effect will spread through the market in time, Brexit or not.
    House price inflation in one Daily Mail photo caption: NEW PRICE £15million ...Tom Conti and his wife Kara bought their Edwardian retreat in Hampstead, North London, for £165,000 in 1985

    Let's say that was 10 or 12 times the average salary in 1985 so still out of reach for most people -- but it is a lot more now. Unless I'm seriously underpaid, the average salary is a damn sight less than £1.5 million a year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    For those who don't know, Colin Montgomerie never won a 'Major' golf tournament.
    And we all know it is his biggest bug bear.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    Mr. Evershed, hard to see any downsides for the Lib Dems becoming a junior coalition partner.

    Be fair, the Lib Dems can easily afford the odd lost seat in Wales, and it's not as if Welsh Labour is an unpopular government with a poor record of delivery on public services.
  • Many of the working poor are immigrants. For all its imprecision WWC is a distinct demographic in Britain, though like any demographic rather blurry around the edges as people are multi faceted.
    The WWC represents people who have a set of values. It is not all white and not all working class either..

    I'm reminded of a chap a South African friend knew from southern Africa. People kept referring to him as a Black Zimbabwean.

    he vented his spleen to my friend and said. I am NOT Black, I am COLOURED and I do not recognise Zimbabwe, I am RHODESIAN and then proceeded to wax lyrical on the iniquities of Mugabe
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    Be fair, the Lib Dems can easily afford the odd lost seat in Wales, and it's not as if Welsh Labour is an unpopular government with a poor record of delivery on public services.
    So you are party leader, you go into an election, get hammered, all of your colleagues lose their seats, you resign as party leader...

    ...and then you end up in government.

    Funny game, politics.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016

    The WWC represents people who have a set of values. It is not all white and not all working class either..

    I'm reminded of a chap a South African friend knew from southern Africa. People kept referring to him as a Black Zimbabwean.

    he vented his spleen to my friend and said. I am NOT Black, I am COLOURED and I do not recognise Zimbabwe, I am RHODESIAN and then proceeded to wax lyrical on the iniquities of Mugabe
    A most depressing article

    Death of the Cockney: A BBC film, Last Whites Of The East End, reveals the seismic effects of mass migration on British communities - and how it's often ethnic minorities who are most worried by it

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601730/A-BBC-film-Whites-East-End-reveals-seismic-effects-mass-migration-British-communities-s-ethnic-minorities-worried-it.html#ixzz49I76mQYU


  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    House price inflation in one Daily Mail photo caption: NEW PRICE £15million ...Tom Conti and his wife Kara bought their Edwardian retreat in Hampstead, North London, for £165,000 in 1985

    Let's say that was 10 or 12 times the average salary in 1985 so still out of reach for most people -- but it is a lot more now. Unless I'm seriously underpaid, the average salary is a damn sight less than £1.5 million a year.
    It's a little misleading to compare sale prices. For most people, the cost of a house is not the ticket price but the monthly mortgage repayment.

    There's still been an enormous increase but in 1985, mortgage rates will have been around 14-15% (the BoE base rate fluctuated a little either side of 12-13%), which means that monthly repayments would be about three times what they are now, like-for-like.
  • Interesting TV programme here.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601730/A-BBC-film-Whites-East-End-reveals-seismic-effects-mass-migration-British-communities-s-ethnic-minorities-worried-it.html

    Britain really is sleepwalking into segregation. Increasingly small town England is almost 100% white and city England majority non white.

    I used to live in Streatham/Mitcham area which was a mixture of middle class large houses and skilled / non skilled white working class who lived in private semis/terraces and council houses.

    As recently as 1991 there were few ethnic minorities (and these were mostly West Indians who were largely speaking culturally British) and the Tories Held Streatham, Croydon North and Mitcham and Morden in what were considered marginal seats. Now all three are about the safest Labour seats in the country and the area is majority ethnic by a large margin, many of them North African and Asian people who speak English as a second language.

    When I sold up, approx 9/10 people viewing were ethnic minorities. I now live in rural Bedfordshire where towns are rapidly expanding. Almost all incomers are white, the few ethnic minority people never seem to stay long.

    Bedfordshire is a very good example of this division. Two cities which are not far off majority ethnic minority with a rapidly expanding amost 100% white population in the rest giving a conservative majority (as evidenced by a Tory being elected as countywide police commissioner)

    All over England it is the same. Take Chard in the west country. Had a population stable at 6,000 for over a hundred years up to the sixties. Has since more than doubled and heading towards 20,000 (white flight newcomers may not have helped Laws chances of winning).

    The result is an increasingly culturally divided Britain and an increasingly fossilised split between left and right with fewer swing seats.


  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Several Ryder Cups though, often seemingly single-handed through presence alone.
    Unarguably the best ever Ryder Cup player.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    Now with letters.

    Team with a new owner (3)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited May 2016
    I'm sure David did a previous piece on the Donald - ah yes here it is :p

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/16/time-to-bet-against-the-donald/ !!!!!!!!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Of course actors are not full-time, and as the Mail article says, the problem is that at the moment a lot of stars do cut-price work for the BBC -- their fear is not revealing how much they are paid but how little. Take Sherlock -- Hollywood pays Benedict Cumberbatch a sight more than the BBC does. The BBC could not have matched Ricky Gervais's US rates for Extras.

    If there is a problem with excessive BBC salaries, it is more likely to be lower down, in the marzipan layers, with people who do good but not exceptional work, and in management.
    Probably....
    Meanwhile
    List of payments....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3601744/The-stars-milking-millions-TV-licence-including-125-000-episode-Gear-host-Chris-Evans.html#ixzz49IC1FOyV


    I am sure Granny will understand.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,434

    Mr. Llama, are they claiming the Midlands are in the north? They're clearly southern.

    Miss Plato, I missed that entirely [did go back to read it].

    The North starts at Brent Cross.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    rcs1000 said:

    The North starts at Brent Cross.
    Or Kings Cross. Once you are safely on the train with your fellow northerners you know that you will soon be safely back in nirvana.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    rcs1000 said:

    The North starts at Brent Cross.
    The North starts at the River.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    On the day of the FA and Scottish cup.....

    I look forward to the day Berwick Rangers win the Scottish cup. The fallout of it ever happened would be thermonuclear.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    The North starts at the River.
    The North starts at the River Tees.

    Fixed!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2016
    On topic

    Yes. Over the past few days I came to the same conclusion and have balanced my book to favour trump. He looks value at current odds - I'm really not sure I'd be prepared to lay him above 6/4.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Moses_ said:

    Probably....
    Meanwhile
    List of payments....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3601744/The-stars-milking-millions-TV-licence-including-125-000-episode-Gear-host-Chris-Evans.html#ixzz49IC1FOyV


    I am sure Granny will understand.....
    Chris Evans is loaded because he sold his company for the best part of £200 million, iirc. We should applaud him as a true entrepreneur. Morecambe and Wise "went out like lights when they moved to ITV in 1978," according to that article. Nothing to do with Eric Morecambe's heart attack in 1979 then?

    The Mail confirms what it seeks to deny. That the BBC is underpaying its stars, who could earn more elsewhere, because of "the kudos of working for the most famous broadcaster on the planet".
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    A most depressing article

    Death of the Cockney: A BBC film, Last Whites Of The East End, reveals the seismic effects of mass migration on British communities - and how it's often ethnic minorities who are most worried by it

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601730/A-BBC-film-Whites-East-End-reveals-seismic-effects-mass-migration-British-communities-s-ethnic-minorities-worried-it.html#ixzz49I76mQYU


    Complaints about change are a very common refrain among people who came to this country in 1950s and 1960s in my experience.

    I think quite a lot of people are conflicted by this.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Moses_ said:

    On the day of the FA and Scottish cup.....

    I look forward to the day Berwick Rangers win the Scottish cup. The fallout of it ever happened would be thermonuclear.

    Why?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pong said:

    On topic

    Yes. Over the past few days I came to the same conclusion and have balanced my book to favour trump.

    He looks value at current odds - I'm really not sure I'd be prepared to lay him above 6/4.

    Too early to say imo. The GOP has started to coalesce around Trump. On the other side, Hillary and Sanders are still slugging it out. We need to know what will happen to the Sanders voters once their man drops out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    Selfishly, of course, I would love United to win, so West Ham qualify for Europe, but having said that would also be great if Palace get revenge for 1990 :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VomkssQel8g
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,864

    It's a little misleading to compare sale prices. For most people, the cost of a house is not the ticket price but the monthly mortgage repayment.

    There's still been an enormous increase but in 1985, mortgage rates will have been around 14-15% (the BoE base rate fluctuated a little either side of 12-13%), which means that monthly repayments would be about three times what they are now, like-for-like.
    For the same monthly repayment you are far better off borrowing a smaller amount with a high interest rate, than a bigger amount with a low interest rate. Any overpayments you make have a proportionately bigger effect on the overall cost of the loan, inflation will reduce the real value of the principal, an interest rate shock will be far easier to absorb.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    The North starts at the River Tees.

    Fixed!
    It's Scotch Corner FFS - everyone knows that!

    Mind you many years ago there was an inter-regional sports contest and I remember the BBC commenting on an athlete representing the North - from Birmingham.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Kirsty Williams is taking a brave decision to align herself with a tired looking Labour in a constituency that is moving rightwards.

    Kirsty has a lot to answer for.

    If Kirsty had lost her seat, then the LibDems would have claimed the fourth list seat in Mid & West Wales.

    Instead, the fourth list seat went to UKIP and Neil Hamilton.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Osborne denies there is a housing boom in September 2013:

    ' Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has denied that the UK housing market is overheating.

    Answering questions at the annual meeting of the Institute of Directors he said: "Let's not pretend there's a housing boom".

    The chancellor said that he, along with the Bank of England, was "alert to the risks" of a housing boom.

    He said that the Bank of England had a responsibility to look at risks as they emerge in the economy "like asset price bubbles". '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24144844

    House prices rise 24% between September 2013 and March 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/chartimage?uri=/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2016/f20cbab1

    March 2016, Osborne claims that Brexit might slow house price rises:

    ' A UK vote to leave the European Union would cause an "immediate economic shock" that could hold back growth in house prices, the chancellor has said.

    In the event of a vote for Brexit, by 2018, houses could be worth up to 18% less than if the UK voted to remain, George Osborne told the BBC. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36344425


    "could be worth up to 18% less" - two imponderables and then setting a value correct to 1%.

    Does ANYONE on the Remain side know statistics?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    The 1990 Crystal Palace team was the last all-English team to play in an FA Cup final.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539
    Alistair said:

    Unarguably the best ever Ryder Cup player.
    By what metric? Monty is Europe's third highest scoring player on 23.5 points (behind Sir Nick on 25 and Bernhard Langer on 24). His winning percentage (65.28%) is better than that of Faldo and Langer (54.35% and 57.14%). There are, however, a number of golfers who have better win percentages than him including Olazabal (66.13% for his 20.5 points) and Poulter (72.22% for his 13 points).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,534

    A most depressing article

    Death of the Cockney: A BBC film, Last Whites Of The East End, reveals the seismic effects of mass migration on British communities - and how it's often ethnic minorities who are most worried by it

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601730/A-BBC-film-Whites-East-End-reveals-seismic-effects-mass-migration-British-communities-s-ethnic-minorities-worried-it.html#ixzz49I76mQYU


    Yet on Eastenders the demographics don't seem to have changed since the 1980s.

    Perhaps the Queen Vic has been relocated to Havering.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump in to 3.6 for POTUS on BF.

    His shortest ever, I believe...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Or Kings Cross. Once you are safely on the train with your fellow northerners you know that you will soon be safely back in nirvana.
    Coming into Central Station as you cross the bridge, the perfect homecoming moment.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,534

    I’m sure this, or something like it, has already been posted by someone else, but I’m sure I know people who would not be unhappy if house prices fell.
    And a lot of people, who aren’t using their houses as collateral, and don’t propose to move any time soon, wouldn’t worry too much.
    Indeed.

    But it does expose what a liar George Osborne is.

    It also explains why Osborne never criticized Brown's house price fuelled welfare consumption - he sees nothing wrong with it and has recreated it.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,475
    I don't think I've ever heard someone who sounds quite as stupid as Dave Nellist on 'Any Questions' and the bar is pretty low. He has issues.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Many of the current Sanders supporters will gradually move towards Clinton once the convention is over and the anger has dissipated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Amusing that Cruz is 1000-1 but Bernie is 42ish-1 for POTUS.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,475
    OT. I don't want to sound as ignorant as Dave Nellist but I've been invited to have dinner at the House of Commons next week. Are jeans Ok? Are jackets required? Ties maybe?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump in to 3.6 for POTUS on BF.

    His shortest ever, I believe...

    And now 3.55...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,475

    A most depressing article

    Death of the Cockney: A BBC film, Last Whites Of The East End, reveals the seismic effects of mass migration on British communities - and how it's often ethnic minorities who are most worried by it

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601730/A-BBC-film-Whites-East-End-reveals-seismic-effects-mass-migration-British-communities-s-ethnic-minorities-worried-it.html#ixzz49I76mQYU


    What's depressing is that someone should link to that pile of bilge. Pity you weren't old enough to join Mosely's Black Shirts when he tried to get rid of the Jews who by then were the biggest ethnic minority.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    surbiton said:

    Many of the current Sanders supporters will gradually move towards Clinton once the convention is over and the anger has dissipated.

    Such is the hope of all Hillary backers.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    US elections are strange. In 2012 Sam Wang was giving Obama a 92% chance of re-election, when he was still available on BF at evens!

    I made a killing, but should have bet the farm.

    This time I've bet a few acres on Trump, well in advance...

    +£3800 as of today, if I cash out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Just added in my side bets, I now estimate the US book to be worth £1640ish.

    So long as Hillary doesn't croak between now and California...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    We should just keep an eye on:

    Florida, N Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Swing needed is less than 2%.

    Thereafter, CO, PA, NH, IA at less than 3%. CO is trending more towards the Democrats with higher Hispanic votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Interesting TV programme here.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601730/A-BBC-film-Whites-East-End-reveals-seismic-effects-mass-migration-British-communities-s-ethnic-minorities-worried-it.html

    Britain really is sleepwalking into segregation. Increasingly small town England is almost 100% white and city England majority non white.

    I used to live in Streatham/Mitcham area which was a mixture of middle class large houses and skilled / non skilled white working class who lived in private semis/terraces and council houses.

    As recently as 1991 there were few ethnic minorities (and these were mostly West Indians who were largely speaking culturally British) and the Tories Held Streatham, Croydon North and Mitcham and Morden in what were considered marginal seats. Now all three are about the safest Labour seats in the country and the area is majority ethnic by a large margin, many of them North African and Asian people who speak English as a second language.

    When I sold up, approx 9/10 people viewing were ethnic minorities. I now live in rural Bedfordshire where towns are rapidly expanding. Almost all incomers are white, the few ethnic minority people never seem to stay long.

    Bedfordshire is a very good example of this division. Two cities which are not far off majority ethnic minority with a rapidly expanding amost 100% white population in the rest giving a conservative majority (as evidenced by a Tory being elected as countywide police commissioner)

    All over England it is the same. Take Chard in the west country. Had a population stable at 6,000 for over a hundred years up to the sixties. Has since more than doubled and heading towards 20,000 (white flight newcomers may not have helped Laws chances of winning).

    The result is an increasingly culturally divided Britain and an increasingly fossilised split between left and right with fewer swing seats.


    Most of the old white working class or lower middle class East End now live in Essex or Kent
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Roger said:

    Pity you weren't old enough to join Mosely's Black Shirts when he tried to get rid of the Jews

    The Labour Party are still accepting members, Roger.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    Roger said:

    What's depressing is that someone should link to that pile of bilge. Pity you weren't old enough to join Mosely's Black Shirts when he tried to get rid of the Jews who by then were the biggest ethnic minority.
    Moseley was ex-Labour, wasn't he?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36316472
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693

    NEW THREAD

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,475
    chestnut said:

    The Labour Party are still accepting members, Roger.
    Instead of spending so much time reinterpreting polls till they read as you want them to why don't you try reading up on the history of the area?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Roger said:

    Instead of spending so much time reinterpreting polls till they read as you want them to why don't you try reading up on the history of the area?
    You have no idea how amusing that is, Roger.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    The Scottish Independent Sector is smaller (4.3%) than the English (7.2%) - hence its even more scandalous that they are disproportionately filling medical degree places.

    And on what planet does a Private Scottish School in Edinburgh educating Scottish children become 'English', with English students?
    Are you trying to pretend that all the students at medical school that have private education come from Scotland, give us a break.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    LOL....I can just imagine the reaction !!!
    Donald knows how to put the boot in
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    stjohn said:

    Now with letters.

    Team with a new owner (3)

    For anyone remotely interested the answer is Xia.

    Team = XI, eleven players in a football or cricket team. XI with a = Xia, the new owner of Aston Villa.

  • gnorngnorn Posts: 14
    With the Republican race now over, Trump is solidifying his support among Republicans. We will see the same thing happen for Clinton once Sanders finally gives up.

    The same thing happens every election.
This discussion has been closed.