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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

SystemSystem Posts: 11,689
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

No-one has got rich betting against Donald Trump this election campaign and now is unlikely to be the time to start. He’s currently best-priced at 5/2 with Ladbrokes, which in a two-horse race implies a serious weakness on his part.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    first.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    2nd. Like Trump?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    Good article David, There's a lot to happen in the next five months but Trump is the value in a two horse race.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,310
    SeanT said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    SeanT said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    matt said:


    You rather ignore the reasons people go abroad on holiday. It's not, and has never been, something to do with the evil that is borrowing. It's to do with choice. When people were given the choice between Blackpool and Benidorm at similar prices there was only one winner.

    Quite. Blackpool grew rich because people were unable to get to the Costas. They should have evolved to give people a taste of places they still (in the main) can't get to. Namely become the 'Vegas of the North' someone keeps telling us they are.
    British seaside resorts are roaring back to life.

    http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2016/may/14/once-more-on-to-the-beach-how-britains-seaside-towns-bounced-back

    I've seen this renaissance with my own eyes. Indeed I reckon I can pinpoint when and where it started: St Ives in the early 1990s, when I noticed the first chic tapas bars (and the Tate Modern opened there), and I thought: Yes, of course, this is the way forward for UK coastal towns. Develop things like art and food: become all-year destinations. We'll never have the guaranteed sun but we do have culture and landscape, and a booming foodie obsession...

    And so it has proved.

    Also people have more money and time: they will still do their two weeks in the Med, but for that second holiday it is now very fashionable to visit our own seductive seaside. And three cheers for that.

    Really Sean, it's a lovely story, but a new cohort of affluent Londoners indulging in semi-ironic frolicking in Margate or Hastings is not a revival of the beach holiday. I don't mean to be negative, but: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/Blackpool.html - 880 commercial properties for sale in Blackpool.
    The stats don't lie. Visitor numbers are surging - in places where they are getting it right: i.e. offering art and food and good hotels, along with striking landscapes/heritage.

    http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/Oversea-tourism-boom-Dutch-Germans-head-West/story-28809240-detail/story.html

    Clearly none of these criteria are fulfilled by poor old Blackpool. Which is why Blackpool is fucked.

    I agree the only hope for the town is to go for all out BLING. Embrace its cheesiness and become a Vegas in the rain. It's not impossible.
    Blackpool? Had a long weekend there a few years back. Horrific place. Some of the pubs employed a post-office queuing system as you waited to get served, and a good proportion of the 'holiday-makers' were blasted out of their minds on chemical substances by midday. In my naivety I thought it would be like a sort of northern Brighton - an open prison by the sea more like. Never go there.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    What exactly is the attraction of Hillary? I thought much the same of her husband, but at least he had charisma .... in spades.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    If he hasn't done so 'till now, "the Donald" (Is he some sort of Scottish Laird?) should start listening to his advisers.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Very good thread leader David. One of the best I have read from you.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Stark_Dawning said:

    SeanT said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    SeanT said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    matt said:


    You rather ignore the reasons people go abroad on holiday. It's not, and has never been, something to do with the evil that is borrowing. It's to do with choice. When people were given the choice between Blackpool and Benidorm at similar prices there was only one winner.

    Quite. Blackpool grew rich because people were unable to get to the Costas. They should have evolved to give people a taste of places they still (in the main) can't get to. Namely become the 'Vegas of the North' someone keeps telling us they are.
    British seaside resorts are roaring back to life.

    http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2016/may/14/once-more-on-to-the-beach-how-britains-seaside-towns-bounced-back

    I've seen this renaissance with my own eyes. Indeed I reckon I can pinpoint when and where it started: St Ives in the early 1990s, when I noticed the first chic tapas bars (and the Tate Modern opened there), and I thought: Yes, of course, this is the way forward for UK coastal towns. Develop things like art and food: become all-year destinations. We'll never have the guaranteed sun but we do have culture and landscape, and a booming foodie obsession...

    And so it has proved.


    Really Sean, it's a lovely story, but a new cohort of affluent Londoners indulging in semi-ironic frolicking in Margate or Hastings is not a revival of the beach holiday. I don't mean to be negative, but: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/Blackpool.html - 880 commercial properties for sale in Blackpool.
    The stats don't lie. Visitor numbers are surging - in places where they are getting it right: i.e. offering art and food and good hotels, along with striking landscapes/heritage.

    http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/Oversea-tourism-boom-Dutch-Germans-head-West/story-28809240-detail/story.html

    Clearly none of these criteria are fulfilled by poor old Blackpool. Which is why Blackpool is fucked.

    I agree the only hope for the town is to go for all out BLING. Embrace its cheesiness and become a Vegas in the rain. It's not impossible.
    Blackpool? Had a long weekend there a few years back. Horrific place. Some of the pubs employed a post-office queuing system as you waited to get served, and a good proportion of the 'holiday-makers' were blasted out of their minds on chemical substances by midday. In my naivety I thought it would be like a sort of northern Brighton - an open prison by the sea more like. Never go there.
    It is perhaps no surprise the party leaderships dropped it from the conference schedule after endless moaning about having to spend a week there in the autumn
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    peter_from_putney said:

    What exactly is the attraction of Hillary? I thought much the same of her husband, but at least he had charisma .... in spades.

    She is not Trump and she is a woman, could be enough for 50%+1. Were Kasich or Rubio her opponent she would likely be done
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    I would also add Arizona to vulnerable GOP states
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2016
    After watching Trump's interview with Hannity from a couple of days ago, one thing for certain this is going to get really really dirty....

    New York Times already ran a 20 page hit piece on Trump that blew up in their face (and looks like they will have to make a big pay out)*...and Trump was firing with two barrels about Clinton's dodgy pasts. I don't think anything is off the table.

    * no idea who is in charge of that paper these days..innocent face.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    peter_from_putney said:

    What exactly is the attraction of Hillary? I thought much the same of her husband, but at least he had charisma .... in spades.

    Me, I'm more interested in competence than charisma. Generally speaking, in a broad sense the US runs itself. If you get a monkey like GW Bush, however, bad things can happen.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    peter_from_putney said:

    What exactly is the attraction of Hillary? I thought much the same of her husband, but at least he had charisma .... in spades.

    Steadiness under fire, professionalism. A serious adult, which Trump (who I don't hate as some do) is really not.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I stuck £50 on Trump. I will cash out the day after the Republican Convention.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    After watching Trump's interview with Hannity from a couple of days ago, one thing for certain this is going to get really really dirty....

    New York Times already ran a 20 page hit piece on Trump that blew up in their face (and looks like they will have to make a big pay out)*...and Trump was firing with two barrels about Clinton's dodgy pasts. I don't think anything is off the table.

    * no idea who is in charge of that paper these days..innocent face.

    How has it blown up in their face? As I understand it they published the story, Trump has demanded a retraction otherwise he starts legal action, they stand by the story.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and Notting Hill are all in London and near the centre of arguably the greatest city on earth. Hastings is at the bottom end of East Sussex and the poor relation of Brighton, I expect even Blackpool has a few period properties some may like but that does not comprise the majority of the housing, the average house price in Hastings is £193,817, ie at or slightly below the national average, nowhere near London prices
    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Hastings.html
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    A good thread header David, but unfortunately three and a half weeks too late.
    As recently as 26 April, the betting brains here were pointing out that Trump was then available on Betfair at 6.4, equivalent to 5.1/1 net of commission. Tonight the best available odds from the same outfit have almost exactly halved to 3.7 or 2.56/1 net of commission.
    In betting, timing is everything.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    We have to remember that Merkel too was hardly liked when she became Chancellor. And then she became adored.

    I'm like you Nick. I don't hate Trump. He is entertaining. I'm quite looking forward to the campaign in full.
    NickPalmer said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    What exactly is the attraction of Hillary? I thought much the same of her husband, but at least he had charisma .... in spades.

    Steadiness under fire, professionalism. A serious adult, which Trump (who I don't hate as some do) is really not.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    You are right. A few weeks ago I thought that Federer presented a good value bet at 30's in the French. And now a hundred quid poorer, I have to eat my words.
    peter_from_putney said:

    A good thread header David, but unfortunately three and a half weeks too late.
    As recently as 26 April, the betting brains here were pointing out that Trump was then available on Betfair at 6.4, equivalent to 5.1/1 net of commission. Tonight the best available odds from the same outfit have almost exactly halved to 3.7 or 2.56/1 net of commission.
    In betting, timing is everything.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    NickPalmer said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    What exactly is the attraction of Hillary? I thought much the same of her husband, but at least he had charisma .... in spades.

    Steadiness under fire, professionalism. A serious adult, which Trump (who I don't hate as some do) is really not.
    Lol.

    She can read an autocue, and is lost without one...

    Oh yeah, she can cough. And bark.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Yeah, covered that on my other article today:

    https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-why-did-cameron-call-referendum-if-brexit-poses-so-many-risks
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Osborne is seriously deluded if he thinks he can lead the Tories after spending a referendum campaign churning out made up numbers. Europhiles have always been incredibly devious so this is not exactly surprising.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Which properties have not doubled since 2000? That equates to an extremely modest compound increase of 4.5% p.a. over the intervening 16 years.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Is that the same Osborne who promised to rebalance the economy away from debt fuelled consumption 'funded' by rising property prices ?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    HYUFD said:

    I would also add Arizona to vulnerable GOP states

    Generally trending democrat, and very high proportion of Hispanics. I'd reckon it likely to go for Clinton.

    But - and it's a big but - Trump brings a bunch of rust belt states into play, and has to be clear favourite in Ohio. (Although I'd reckon Trump will be out of luck in Florida.)

    Clinton should be favourite. But only a narrow one.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    The following HMRC table https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/percentile-points-from-1-to-99-for-total-income-before-and-after-tax is useful for reference on income distributions by percentage before and after income tax.

    It is a couple of years out of date, so the most recent year is 2014.

    It show that anyone with income over £50,600 is in the top 90%. Income over £110,000 is in the top 98% and income over £159,000 is in the top 99%.

    Of course this is personal income, so household income distribution is likely to be quite different.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    tyson said:

    You are right. A few weeks ago I thought that Federer presented a good value bet at 30's in the French. And now a hundred quid poorer, I have to eat my words.

    peter_from_putney said:

    A good thread header David, but unfortunately three and a half weeks too late.
    As recently as 26 April, the betting brains here were pointing out that Trump was then available on Betfair at 6.4, equivalent to 5.1/1 net of commission. Tonight the best available odds from the same outfit have almost exactly halved to 3.7 or 2.56/1 net of commission.
    In betting, timing is everything.

    You're not wrong there Tyson - I followed you in by backing Ferderer at 38 for the French Open, but fortunately for only a few quid.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    I made money on his nomination but I just can't bet on him here. I recognise that a primary is not a general election. The electorate is about five to six times as large, even though fewer votes are really contestable.

    One example is the tactical motives in primaries which are not reflective of popularity. Essentially, the base wants to keep its nominee close for a while, to stop her running to win those contestable voters. Is a vote for Sanders really a vote for the former mayor of Burlington and current independent senator as President of the United States? Or is it a warning to Clinton that she can't just expect to appeal to centrists and sell out leftists the way her husband did during his presidency? I lean to the latter explanation. In the Republican case, Trump won primaries as one of the least-popular candidates in approval terms, down there with Chris Christie. This showed through in moments of real weakness and scepticism of his ability to win the primaries outright, right up to election night in Indiana. Yet he evidently was good enough to win. So approval is not everything.

    The second reason for my pure scepticism - not pessimism but I just don't know the right range of odds - is that while Hillary has already been castigated since stepping foot in the White House, Trump has not yet endured a proper strafing of his character by political rivals even during the primaries, though a great many voters are already wary of him. Again, the tactics mattered. Bush/Rubio/Kasich didn't think it was worth hurting Trump if it didn't help them get ahead of Kasich/Bush/Rubio. (Actually, it's the logic of any electoral system without a clear two-party dichotomy.)
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,452
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and Notting Hill are all in London and near the centre of arguably the greatest city on earth. Hastings is at the bottom end of East Sussex and the poor relation of Brighton, I expect even Blackpool has a few period properties some may like but that does not comprise the majority of the housing, the average house price in Hastings is £193,817, ie at or slightly below the national average, nowhere near London prices
    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Hastings.html
    Sean and HYUFD: I have no idea what the conversation was that led to this exchange, but can I butt into your conversation with the tangential observation that the inner Manchester district of Ancoats is now seeing property prices per square foot equivalent to those in Castlefield, with three-bedroomed properties selling for in excess of £400,000. Not much in London terms, but absolutely staggering for anyone with any memory of Manchester prior to 1996. This was one of the districts that inspired Engels to his views and has been horrible - basically falling down - since at least WW2. Yet as a result of a ripple-out from the Northern Quarter it is suddenly very desirable and seeing vast amounts of development. I went for a walk through it the other day. It's lovely. Quirky, historic, modern, fun, lively without being shouty. Admittedly it was a glorious sunny day; it may be different in the drizzle.

    I know this may be nothing to do with what you are talking about and I don't know whose views these support. But as a 41-yearold Mancunian I remain astonished and delighted by it all.

    Almost unbelievably, some think the same may happen next to Collyhurst.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    peter_from_putney said:

    What exactly is the attraction of Hillary? I thought much the same of her husband, but at least he had charisma .... in spades.

    Bill Clinton also had excellent timing - challenging a third term Republican at the end of a recession in 1992 and then having four years of economic growth to ride before being challenged by an unpopular has-been.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited May 2016
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and Notting Hill are all in London and near the centre of arguably the greatest city on earth. Hastings is at the bottom end of East Sussex and the poor relation of Brighton, I expect even Blackpool has a few period properties some may like but that does not comprise the majority of the housing, the average house price in Hastings is £193,817, ie at or slightly below the national average, nowhere near London prices
    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Hastings.html
    Which means that Hastings is a bargain. Which it is, by the standards of SE England. Investors should be heading for the old, down-at-heel coastal towns of Kent and Sussex. And period properties.

    There are no more bargains in London. Anywhere.
    There may be a few period properties with a bargain but the average house in Hastings I cannot see being much to write home about, either in terms of facade or potential growth. Whitstable or Rye (technically in the Hastings constituency) might be better bets
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,264
    another_richard said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Is that the same Osborne who promised to rebalance the economy away from debt fuelled consumption 'funded' by rising property prices ?
    Osborne is displaying poor tactics on this one. Remain need young voters to turn out. Telling them house prices would fall on Leave is not going to get them out to vote Remain.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    peter_from_putney said:

    A good thread header David, but unfortunately three and a half weeks too late.
    As recently as 26 April, the betting brains here were pointing out that Trump was then available on Betfair at 6.4, equivalent to 5.1/1 net of commission. Tonight the best available odds from the same outfit have almost exactly halved to 3.7 or 2.56/1 net of commission.
    In betting, timing is everything.

    True. I have, with one wobble a little over a month ago, been pretty consistent in advocating Trump's value ever since last October when I tipped him for the nomination (along with Cruz and Rubio - though out of a field of a dozen, they weren't bad selections). You're right that there was more value three weeks ago but then while the odds were better, the polls were worse.

    But there's still value now.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and Notting Hill are all in London and near the centre of arguably the greatest city on earth. Hastings is at the bottom end of East Sussex and the poor relation of Brighton, I expect even Blackpool has a few period properties some may like but that does not comprise the majority of the housing, the average house price in Hastings is £193,817, ie at or slightly below the national average, nowhere near London prices
    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Hastings.html
    Sean and HYUFD: I have no idea what the conversation was that led to this exchange, but can I butt into your conversation with the tangential observation that the inner Manchester district of Ancoats is now seeing property prices per square foot equivalent to those in Castlefield, with three-bedroomed properties selling for in excess of £400,000. Not much in London terms, but absolutely staggering for anyone with any memory of Manchester prior to 1996. This was one of the districts that inspired Engels to his views and has been horrible - basically falling down - since at least WW2. Yet as a result of a ripple-out from the Northern Quarter it is suddenly very desirable and seeing vast amounts of development. I went for a walk through it the other day. It's lovely. Quirky, historic, modern, fun, lively without being shouty. Admittedly it was a glorious sunny day; it may be different in the drizzle.

    I know this may be nothing to do with what you are talking about and I don't know whose views these support. But as a 41-yearold Mancunian I remain astonished and delighted by it all.

    Almost unbelievably, some think the same may happen next to Collyhurst.
    Many inner urban areas have been gentrified across the country.

    By comparison much of middle suburbia is declining rapidly - semis built in the 1930s and 1950s are rarely fashionable and now usually well past their best.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Which properties have not doubled since 2000? That equates to an extremely modest compound increase of 4.5% p.a. over the intervening 16 years.
    OK, then try Margate:

    "Asking prices in the Kent seaside resort soared by more than 24% in 2015 to reach an average of £204,631, according to Rightmove... [making it] the hottest property market in Britain outside of London this year"

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/dec/18/hottest-property-market-outside-london-margate-rightmove


    PS look at that graph. Of the top ten towns in England for price rises in 2015, 5 of them are coastal towns in Kent and Essex
    Isn't that in part the BTL market?

    24% in a year sounds like a real bubble. Timing is everrthing, and may be time to runaway.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Verulamius said:

    The following HMRC table https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/percentile-points-from-1-to-99-for-total-income-before-and-after-tax is useful for reference on income distributions by percentage before and after income tax.

    It is a couple of years out of date, so the most recent year is 2014.

    It show that anyone with income over £50,600 is in the top 90%. Income over £110,000 is in the top 98% and income over £159,000 is in the top 99%.

    Of course this is personal income, so household income distribution is likely to be quite different.

    Presumably also the top 10%, top 2% and top 1% respectively?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    @david_herdson Thanks, am wondering how low Cameron can stoop after talking up risks of war. His decision to go for a referendum this summer without measurable gains or a clear vision of how he wants the EU isn't to his credit. Thankfully Galloway is conspicuous by his absence.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    SeanT said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Hammond has just been on TV accusing LEAVE of "plucking numbers out of thin air" (he's talking about Gove on migration)

    Do they not have self awareness? Can't they see how ridiculous they look?
    Their goal is to sow seeds of doubt. Normal people - as in those who inhabit the real world, rather than this site - worry about the cost of leaving. They hope that even if people think £4,000 is too much, then maybe it could be £2,000.

    It's like "Labour's Tax Bombshell" in 1992.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Is that the same Osborne who promised to rebalance the economy away from debt fuelled consumption 'funded' by rising property prices ?
    Osborne is displaying poor tactics on this one. Remain need young voters to turn out. Telling them house prices would fall on Leave is not going to get them out to vote Remain.
    Indeed.

    And they're the same young voters who Osborne has shafted over university tuition fees.

  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    another_richard said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    What exactly is the attraction of Hillary? I thought much the same of her husband, but at least he had charisma .... in spades.

    Bill Clinton also had excellent timing - challenging a third term Republican at the end of a recession in 1992 and then having four years of economic growth to ride before being challenged by an unpopular has-been.
    One line I cut because it was a bit of a sidetrack was that it's ironic that Bill won the nomination - and subsequently the White House - by exploiting precisely the kind of understrength field that Hillary is in.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and Notting Hill are all in London and near the centre of arguably the greatest city on earth. Hastings is at the bottom end of East Sussex and the poor relation of Brighton, I expect even Blackpool has a few period properties some may like but that does not comprise the majority of the housing, the average house price in Hastings is £193,817, ie at or slightly below the national average, nowhere near London prices
    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Hastings.html
    Sean and HYUFD: I have no idea what the conversation was that led to this exchange, but can I butt into your conversation with the tangential observation that the inner Manchester district of Ancoats is now seeing property prices per square foot equivalent to those in Castlefield, with three-bedroomed properties selling for in excess of £400,000. Not much in London terms, but absolutely staggering for anyone with any memory of Manchester prior to 1996. This was one of the districts that inspired Engels to his views and has been horrible - basically falling down - since at least WW2. Yet as a result of a ripple-out from the Northern Quarter it is suddenly very desirable and seeing vast amounts of development. I went for a walk through it the other day. It's lovely. Quirky, historic, modern, fun, lively without being shouty. Admittedly it was a glorious sunny day; it may be different in the drizzle.

    I know this may be nothing to do with what you are talking about and I don't know whose views these support. But as a 41-yearold Mancunian I remain astonished and delighted by it all.

    Almost unbelievably, some think the same may happen next to Collyhurst.
    Manchester is trendy, Hackney is trendy, Brighton is trendy, Hastings is not
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Is that the same Osborne who promised to rebalance the economy away from debt fuelled consumption 'funded' by rising property prices ?
    Osborne is displaying poor tactics on this one. Remain need young voters to turn out. Telling them house prices would fall on Leave is not going to get them out to vote Remain.
    One hears this argument a bit, but I think prospective buyers want their future houses to be high-return investments just as much as current homeowners do. Best for Leave to Leave it alone.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Is that the same Osborne who promised to rebalance the economy away from debt fuelled consumption 'funded' by rising property prices ?
    Osborne is displaying poor tactics on this one. Remain need young voters to turn out. Telling them house prices would fall on Leave is not going to get them out to vote Remain.
    But it will scare old property owners, I.e. people who do go and vote.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    david_herdson said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    A good thread header David, but unfortunately three and a half weeks too late.
    As recently as 26 April, the betting brains here were pointing out that Trump was then available on Betfair at 6.4, equivalent to 5.1/1 net of commission. Tonight the best available odds from the same outfit have almost exactly halved to 3.7 or 2.56/1 net of commission.
    In betting, timing is everything.

    True. I have, with one wobble a little over a month ago, been pretty consistent in advocating Trump's value ever since last October when I tipped him for the nomination (along with Cruz and Rubio - though out of a field of a dozen, they weren't bad selections). You're right that there was more value three weeks ago but then while the odds were better, the polls were worse.

    But there's still value now.
    Trump's price will sutely keep falling until the convention. Then depending on how the convention goes it could drop further.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    SeanT said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Which properties have not doubled since 2000? That equates to an extremely modest compound increase of 4.5% p.a. over the intervening 16 years.
    OK, then try Margate:

    "Asking prices in the Kent seaside resort soared by more than 24% in 2015 to reach an average of £204,631, according to Rightmove... [making it] the hottest property market in Britain outside of London this year"

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/dec/18/hottest-property-market-outside-london-margate-rightmove


    PS look at that graph. Of the top ten towns in England for price rises in 2015, 5 of them are coastal towns in Kent and Essex
    Other than Altrincham (posh commuter belt for Manchester), 9/10 of those are in commuter belt territory for London that is why they are there, No 8 is Luton, No 9 is Slough and they are certainly not there for the landscape and architecture!!
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    dr_spyn said:

    @david_herdson Thanks, am wondering how low Cameron can stoop after talking up risks of war. His decision to go for a referendum this summer without measurable gains or a clear vision of how he wants the EU isn't to his credit. Thankfully Galloway is conspicuous by his absence.

    I suggested that plagues of locusts might be next on Remain's scare list in my Total Politics piece (I originally wrote 'plagues of frogs' but decided on reflection that that was open to misinterpretation).
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    david_herdson said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @david_herdson Thanks, am wondering how low Cameron can stoop after talking up risks of war. His decision to go for a referendum this summer without measurable gains or a clear vision of how he wants the EU isn't to his credit. Thankfully Galloway is conspicuous by his absence.

    I suggested that plagues of locusts might be next on Remain's scare list in my Total Politics piece (I originally wrote 'plagues of frogs' but decided on reflection that that was open to misinterpretation).
    We'll be promised the whole ten plagues before things are done.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    david_herdson said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @david_herdson Thanks, am wondering how low Cameron can stoop after talking up risks of war. His decision to go for a referendum this summer without measurable gains or a clear vision of how he wants the EU isn't to his credit. Thankfully Galloway is conspicuous by his absence.

    I suggested that plagues of locusts might be next on Remain's scare list in my Total Politics piece (I originally wrote 'plagues of frogs' but decided on reflection that that was open to misinterpretation).
    Good thoughtful piece it is too, leaving out the bit about plagues of frogs probably saved a few laptops from coffee damage.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited May 2016
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt fpr HYUFD

    You wanna bet?

    They said the same about Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and even Notting Hill (a long time back).

    The seedy southcoast is now seeing the natural ripple effect out from London. Also these old towns like Hastings are full of very desirable period properties.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41716752.html

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56366990.html

    Look at those prices. I bet they've doubled since 2000.

    https://resources.propertypartner.co/the-investment-case-for-hastings/


    *and now I am going to drink wine. Anon*

    Hackney, Brixton, Peckham and Notting Hill are all in London and near the centre of arguably the greatest city on earth. Hastings is at the bottom end of East Sussex and the poor relation of Brighton, I expect even Blackpool has a few period properties some may like but that does not comprise the majority of the housing, the average house price in Hastings is £193,817, ie at or slightly below the national average, nowhere near London prices
    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Hastings.html
    S

    I know this may be nothing to do with what you are talking about and I don't know whose views these support. But as a 41-yearold Mancunian I remain astonished and delighted by it all.

    Almost unbelievably, some think the same may happen next to Collyhurst.
    Manchester is trendy, Hackney is trendy, Brighton is trendy, Hastings is not
    Hastings is trendy. The rest are passe. The essence of trendy is to be discernibly ahead of a curve, a curve which you are clearly behind.


    http://theculturetrip.com/europe/united-kingdom/england/articles/why-hastings-is-the-shoreditch-of-sussex-and-the-uk-s-new-art-hotspot/


    http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2015/feb/10/hastings-east-sussex-weekend-break

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/ShowUserReviews-g186274-d6987561-r363653983-The_Crown-Hastings_East_Sussex_England.html
    You can always find somebody to call somewhere trendy, I expect even Luton, Merthyr Tydfil and Grimsby would be found 'trendy' by someone but Hastings attracts neither the 'hip' crowd of Brighton, Hackney and Manchester nor is it close enough to London to really attract enough commuters (it takes an hour and a half to get to central London by train from Hastings)
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Added to which it takes ages to get there whether by a trundling rail service or a slow crawl down the mainly single carriageway A21 following some bloody lorry.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Having an uncle there I concur.

    Potentially it has some pretty good character properties, but for too long it has been a dumping ground for people unwanted in London. It also suffers from poor road and rail links, making commutting difficult. There are some nice spots nearby, in Rye and Battle, but Hastings has a long way to go.

    The British seaside is very patchy though. Compare Seaview or Bembridge on the IOW with Ryde or Shanklin. They are a few miles apart but worlds apart.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    Your manor is not Camden. You are on the wrong side of the tracks (literally) from Camden.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    The day Hastings is 'cool' is the day irony dies!
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Does anyone know of any property websites where you can filter properties by the amount of land they have?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    First-time buyers should vote LEAVE for lower house prices!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    The day Hastings is 'cool' is the day irony dies!
    I liked the funicular (East Cliff).
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First-time buyers should vote LEAVE for lower house prices!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    Depreciating assets are not good for first time buyers.

  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    The Sun front page apes yesterday's Mail with a touching photograph of two happily married men. One with glasses appears to be asking readers why the other is unpopular.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Talking of property prices...spare a thought for the luuvies...

    The great celebrity house price slump: Suddenly, stars can't shift their mansions - no matter how many millions they lop off the price. Hankies out!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3601681/The-great-celebrity-house-price-slump-Suddenly-stars-t-shift-mansions-no-matter-millions-lop-price-Hankies-out.html
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of London (by the oligarchs), and also priced out of nice towns like Brighton and Rye and Canterbury and Tunbridge or basically anywhere in Bucks, but who still want to live within an hour or two of London, and maybe in a period house, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    For "oligarchs" read "authors"
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    The day Hastings is 'cool' is the day irony dies!
    I liked the funicular (East Cliff).
    It is an interesting ride up the cliff but hardly the epitome of cool (the fact it is called 'Cliff' says it all)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    The day Hastings is 'cool' is the day irony dies!
    I liked the funicular (East Cliff).
    It is an interesting ride up the cliff but hardly the epitome of cool (the fact it is called 'Cliff' says it all)
    From the top you can see Beachy Head and Eastbourne.

    BTW today I did the Stockport to Buxton rail line :)
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of London (by the oligarchs), and also priced out of nice towns like Brighton and Rye and Canterbury and Tunbridge or basically anywhere in Bucks, but who still want to live within an hour or two of London, and maybe in a period house, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    For "oligarchs" read "authors"
    Read "successful authors"
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2016
    As predicted, the BBC luuvies salaries will stay secret....

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci7YPpDXEAA-GjI.jpg
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    david_herdson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of London (by the oligarchs), and also priced out of nice towns like Brighton and Rye and Canterbury and Tunbridge or basically anywhere in Bucks, but who still want to live within an hour or two of London, and maybe in a period house, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    For "oligarchs" read "authors"
    Read "successful authors"
    LOL
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of London (by the oligarchs), and also priced out of nice towns like Brighton and Rye and Canterbury and Tunbridge or basically anywhere in Bucks, but who still want to live within an hour or two of London, and maybe in a period house, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    You could say the same about Southend where the journey to London is half an hour quicker than from Hastings!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First-time buyers should vote LEAVE for lower house prices!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    Depreciating assets are not good for first time buyers.

    Out of touch REMAINER!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    dr_spyn said:

    The Sun front page apes yesterday's Mail with a touching photograph of two happily married men. One with glasses appears to be asking readers why the other is unpopular.

    LOL....
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,899
    edited May 2016
    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Osborne cranking up the random number generator, house prices to fall 10% on FT front page, 18% on ITN.

    Absolute bullshit, but he seems to be running away from any discussion about what sort of EU he actually supports.

    Is that the same Osborne who promised to rebalance the economy away from debt fuelled consumption 'funded' by rising property prices ?
    Osborne is displaying poor tactics on this one. Remain need young voters to turn out. Telling them house prices would fall on Leave is not going to get them out to vote Remain.
    Gotta agree with that.

    While it is obviously likely that house prices would take a nose-dive if, as expected, the economy took a hit after Brexit, there's very little justification for Osborne's house price figures. They're no better substantiated that Gove's 5 million immigrant claim. Osborne has made a reasonable effort to quantify figures such as the £4,300 loss per household (and most of the Remain claims made in the EU Referendum Guide are sourced, unlike those of Leave), but he is now risking what credibility he may have claimed.

    You make a good point that many people, especially the young, wouldn't actually consider a house price drop to be a bad thing. I'd suggest that quite a few older people might think that way too, especially those who own their houses outright and are watching (or financing) their kids' desperate struggles to get their own place.

    A poor argument indeed by Osborne.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Looks like whoever the celeb is just upped the anti somewhat

    "Now secret threesome star tries to gag TWITTER users from naming him online and is even contacting people in countries where his gagging order doesn't apply Injunction star asked Twitter to email anyone who may have named him.Message tells user to 'voluntarily' delete post or face consequences"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3600554/Now-secret-threesome-star-tries-gag-Twitter-users-naming-online-contacting-people-countries-gagging-order-doesn-t-apply.html#ixzz49EhcVfQA
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Moses_ said:

    Looks like whoever the celeb is just upped the anti somewhat

    "Now secret threesome star tries to gag TWITTER users from naming him online and is even contacting people in countries where his gagging order doesn't apply Injunction star asked Twitter to email anyone who may have named him.Message tells user to 'voluntarily' delete post or face consequences"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3600554/Now-secret-threesome-star-tries-gag-Twitter-users-naming-online-contacting-people-countries-gagging-order-doesn-t-apply.html#ixzz49EhcVfQA

    The internet never forgets....
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    edited May 2016
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    Your manor is not Camden. You are on the wrong side of the tracks (literally) from Camden.
    I'm actually right ON the tracks. The Euston line goes right underneath my property, at the top of Delancey St.
    Primrose Hill station once lay on the footbridge over the tracks. It once upon a time had platforms on the main line and went by the name of Chalk Farm (namesake of the nearby Tube).

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601689/Albanian-murderer-posed-Kosovan-refugee-gain-UK-citizenship-got-four-bed-house-benefits-dealing-cocaine-wins-legal-aid-fight-stay-proof-Britain-lost-marbles.html

    I am sure we will be hearing loads of similar cases over the next 10 years of people who aren't Syrian...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    Moses_ said:

    Looks like whoever the celeb is just upped the anti somewhat

    "Now secret threesome star tries to gag TWITTER users from naming him online and is even contacting people in countries where his gagging order doesn't apply Injunction star asked Twitter to email anyone who may have named him.Message tells user to 'voluntarily' delete post or face consequences"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3600554/Now-secret-threesome-star-tries-gag-Twitter-users-naming-online-contacting-people-countries-gagging-order-doesn-t-apply.html#ixzz49EhcVfQA

    Just for that, he deserves to be named and shamed!
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    @FrancisUrquhart The choice of words on that tag line half way down the front page of the Sun looks somewhat 'provocative', some might think it is deliberately provocative.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    Moses_ said:

    Looks like whoever the celeb is just upped the anti somewhat

    "Now secret threesome star tries to gag TWITTER users from naming him online and is even contacting people in countries where his gagging order doesn't apply Injunction star asked Twitter to email anyone who may have named him.Message tells user to 'voluntarily' delete post or face consequences"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3600554/Now-secret-threesome-star-tries-gag-Twitter-users-naming-online-contacting-people-countries-gagging-order-doesn-t-apply.html#ixzz49EhcVfQA

    Wasn't the gender of the person also under the injunction, or perhaps it was only the spouse?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    dr_spyn said:

    @FrancisUrquhart The choice of words on that tag line half way down the front page of the Sun looks somewhat 'provocative', some might think it is deliberately provocative.

    You might think that, I couldn't possibly comment
  • Options
    LewisDuckworthLewisDuckworth Posts: 379
    Economics201: Explain (Again) Why Lower House Prices Are A Good Thing



    Q: Is it good to have a Chancellor who hasn't a clue (and is plain daft on this issue)?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of London (by the oligarchs), and also priced out of nice towns like Brighton and Rye and Canterbury and Tunbridge or basically anywhere in Bucks, but who still want to live within an hour or two of London, and maybe in a period house, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    You could say the same about Southend where the journey to London is half an hour quicker than from Hastings!
    I would deffo say the same about Southend. Except it's already been spotted. The boom arrived a while ago.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2253516/Southend-longer-resort-Essex-town-revealed-UK-property-hotspot-2012.html
    Agree there, though Southend has grammar schools too which helps, Hastings is comprehensive
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited May 2016
    Elton on Graham Norton now! Other guests looking rather sheepish
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    HYUFD said:

    Elton on Graham Norton now! Other guests looking rather sheepish

    He seems to be all over the press over the past few days. Does he have a new record or musical out?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    HYUFD said:

    Elton on Graham Norton now! Other guests looking rather sheepish

    Wow! He had definitely fallen off my radar in recent months. Wonder what he's been up to.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elton on Graham Norton now! Other guests looking rather sheepish

    He seems to be all over the press over the past few days. Does he have a new record or musical out?
    I'm sure he's able to keep both on the go at once.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of Londoe use, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    You could say the same about Southend where the journey to London is half an hour quicker than from Hastings!
    I would deffo say the same about Southend. Except it's already been spotted. The boom arrived a while ago.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2253516/Southend-longer-resort-Essex-town-revealed-UK-property-hotspot-2012.html
    Agree there, though Southend has grammar schools too which helps, Hastings is comprehensive
    Even Ilford has grammar schools :)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    LewisDuckworth said:

    Economics201: Explain (Again) Why Lower House Prices Are A Good Thing



    Q: Is it good to have a Chancellor who hasn't a clue (and is plain daft on this issue)?

    Lower hose prices are a good thing.

    But massively lower house prices are a bad thing, because that would reduce labour market mobility (those with negative equity cannot easily move), and likely precipitate another banking crisis.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Things have come to a pretty pass when David Herdson - Mr Level Headed, if ever there was one - says that Donald Trump has a much better than 29% chance of becoming President of the United States. David might well be right, too.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Things have come to a pretty pass when David Herdson - Mr Level Headed, if ever there was one - says that Donald Trump has a much better than 29% chance of becoming President of the United States. David might well be right, too.

    So long as he forgets his plans to default on a quarter of US government debt, I think he'd make a decent president
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of Londoe use, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    You could say the same about Southend where the journey to London is half an hour quicker than from Hastings!
    I would deffo say the same about Southend. Except it's already been spotted. The boom arrived a while ago.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2253516/Southend-longer-resort-Essex-town-revealed-UK-property-hotspot-2012.html
    Agree there, though Southend has grammar schools too which helps, Hastings is comprehensive
    Even Ilford has grammar schools :)
    Sadly, they lack children bright enough to pass the 11 plus.
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    edited May 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First-time buyers should vote LEAVE for lower house prices!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    Depreciating assets are not good for first time buyers.

    Please justify this remark.

    Falling price of something you're about to increase the consumption thereof is bad?

    Depreciating assets are not good for existing owners.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of Londoe use, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    You could say the same about Southend where the journey to London is half an hour quicker than from Hastings!
    I would deffo say the same about Southend. Except it's already been spotted. The boom arrived a while ago.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2253516/Southend-longer-resort-Essex-town-revealed-UK-property-hotspot-2012.html
    Agree there, though Southend has grammar schools too which helps, Hastings is comprehensive
    Even Ilford has grammar schools :)
    Yes but Ilford is also in London so that automatically doubles the price anyway
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elton on Graham Norton now! Other guests looking rather sheepish

    He seems to be all over the press over the past few days. Does he have a new record or musical out?
    Well he was attempting a duet so that must be it!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    VapidBilge said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First-time buyers should vote LEAVE for lower house prices!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    Depreciating assets are not good for first time buyers.

    Please justify this remark.

    Falling price of something you're about to increase the consumption thereof is bad?

    Depreciating assets are not good for existing owners.
    Mr Bilge, you used my image I Tweeted - much respec'!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elton on Graham Norton now! Other guests looking rather sheepish

    Wow! He had definitely fallen off my radar in recent months. Wonder what he's been up to.
    Probably enjoying the affection of his devoted husband!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,338
    rcs1000 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of Londoe use, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    You could say the same about Southend where the journey to London is half an hour quicker than from Hastings!
    I would deffo say the same about Southend. Except it's already been spotted. The boom arrived a while ago.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2253516/Southend-longer-resort-Essex-town-revealed-UK-property-hotspot-2012.html
    Agree there, though Southend has grammar schools too which helps, Hastings is comprehensive
    Even Ilford has grammar schools :)
    Sadly, they lack children bright enough to pass the 11 plus.
    I passed my 11-plus (I'm an Ilford County old boy, attended 1987-1994)
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,826
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First-time buyers should vote LEAVE for lower house prices!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    I'm a Belieber! :smiley:
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,010
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @SeanT

    "Which means that Hastings is a bargain. ..."

    I assume you have never been to the place. Hastings is a dump. It is just awful and always has been. The one place in Sussex that can make Crawley look good.

    Sure.

    But Peckham is also a dump. So is Brixton. And much of Hackney, Dalston, Stoke Newington. Many on here would claim my very own manor, Camden, is a total dump.

    That doesn't stop one bed flats in Camden selling for half a million quid.

    It's all about perception. Once a place is seen as cool the property price prophecy is self fulfilling.

    But Hastings isn't in inner London so rather less likely to attract City or overseas money.
    lol.

    Billionaire oligarchs are never going to buy in Hastings, that I agree.

    The people who WILL buy there (unless there is a crash) are young native Brits utterly priced out of Londoe use, with a garden, near the sea.

    There aren't many places left that tick those boxes. Hastings is one. It has a period core. An artsy scene. It also has drug addicts and horrible chavvy pubs. But people are desperate to buy anything, right now.

    You could say the same about Southend where the journey to London is half an hour quicker than from Hastings!
    I would deffo say the same about Southend. Except it's already been spotted. The boom arrived a while ago.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2253516/Southend-longer-resort-Essex-town-revealed-UK-property-hotspot-2012.html
    Agree there, though Southend has grammar schools too which helps, Hastings is comprehensive
    Even Ilford has grammar schools :)
    Sadly, they lack children bright enough to pass the 11 plus.
    I passed my 11-plus (I'm an Ilford County old boy, attended 1987-1994)
    According to Wikipedia, you were the last Ilford boy to pass
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited May 2016
    VapidBilge said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First-time buyers should vote LEAVE for lower house prices!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    Depreciating assets are not good for first time buyers.

    Please justify this remark.

    Falling price of something you're about to increase the consumption thereof is bad?

    Depreciating assets are not good for existing owners.
    Negative equity if you have just purchased with a mortgage.
This discussion has been closed.