Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
And there is still a month to go. Many of the Leavers on PB don't really have a clue what is happening on the left part of the political spectrum so they make up theories that fit their own prejudices, e.g. Plato's wonderful theory down thread that lefties will vote Leave to remove Cameron. "Vote Leave to get rid of a PM who has said he's leaving anyway and replace him with a more right wing Tory". Genius. What could possibly go wrong!
The problem is that the left at a leadership level have largely vacated the stage. This leaves the left a little rudderless, and many may not be motivated about the issue at all without a strong voice at the front to lead them to the ballot box.
Being Pro-EU is intrinsically Statist. That does not necessarily equate with right wing.
Not necessarily. It depends on your frame of reference. A small-government liberal might think that having the EU is a price worth paying if the alternative is a communist dictatorship in a major European country.
Your view would certainly be in the minority in most eastern European member states.
But there's no realistic chance of that happening in this country.
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.
Single methodology pollster who has carried out both online & phone poll and has a working hypothesis which might explain the differences.....
I think the pollsters are much more worried about 'getting it right' than promoting a particular methodology...
Having seen Stephan Shakespeare's tweet this morning, I think there's a lot of nervous people in the polling industry.
Has the spread among the polls ever been bigger than it is now, a year after they all messed up the election? There's going to be lots of egg on face at most of the pollsters five weeks today.
Instinctively, that YouGov research rings true. It doesn't feel like Remain is running away with this. How could it be the case given that immigration is such a big issue?
As the PB voice of Labour Leave, I can let you all know what is happening on the left - we haven't got a look-in against the organised weight of Labour campaigning for a Remain vote at all levels.
I thought Galloway would have been more prominent in pushing the left message for Leave, and I don't think anyone else has enough clout to be listened to. The only way for Leave to get a bigger slice of Labour voters is if Cameron and his mates manage to piss everyone off.
GPs at the LMC conference have voted to ask the BMA to ballot on industrial action, including a mass submission of undated resignation letters. Hope Jeremy enjoyed the last few days
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.
Quite so.
Sanders has largely been given a pass during much of the process just as Obama was in the first phases of 2008. The difference is that Obama as the insurgent built up a solid lead fairly early on whereas Sanders has trailed in closed primaries with heavy minority voting.
Meanwhile ....
Katie Glueck of "Politico" looks at whether Georgia and Arizona are on the table for Clinton :
Being Pro-EU is intrinsically Statist. That does not necessarily equate with right wing.
Not necessarily. It depends on your frame of reference. A small-government liberal might think that having the EU is a price worth paying if the alternative is a communist dictatorship in a major European country.
Your view would certainly be in the minority in most eastern European member states.
But there's no realistic chance of that happening in this country.
And is that all that counts? It doesn't strike be as a very global outlook. Rather little-Englander in fact.
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.
Single methodology pollster who has carried out both online & phone poll and has a working hypothesis which might explain the differences.....
I think the pollsters are much more worried about 'getting it right' than promoting a particular methodology...
Having seen Stephan Shakespeare's tweet this morning, I think there's a lot of nervous people in the polling industry.
Has the spread among the polls ever been bigger than it is now, a year after they all messed up the election? There's going to be lots of egg on face at most of the pollsters five weeks today.
The last time I can remember such a modal variation was in 2008. But that was on the scale of Tory leads. IIRC online had it around 8 to 10 point Tory leads but phone polls had it as high as 28%
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.
Single methodology pollster who has carried out both online & phone poll and has a working hypothesis which might explain the differences.....
I think the pollsters are much more worried about 'getting it right' than promoting a particular methodology...
Having seen Stephan Shakespeare's tweet this morning, I think there's a lot of nervous people in the polling industry.
Which is why I think they're more worried about getting it right than defending a particular methodology - YouGov's argument is that it comes down to sample composition - and - by chance - the online sample in this case is proving more representative where there is a big skew based on education.
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.
Single methodology pollster who has carried out both online & phone poll and has a working hypothesis which might explain the differences.....
I think the pollsters are much more worried about 'getting it right' than promoting a particular methodology...
Having seen Stephan Shakespeare's tweet this morning, I think there's a lot of nervous people in the polling industry.
Has the spread among the polls ever been bigger than it is now, a year after they all messed up the election? There's going to be lots of egg on face at most of the pollsters five weeks today.
What's 14pts between your own phone/online polling? I'm still gaping at ICM's results.
Instinctively, that YouGov research rings true. It doesn't feel like Remain is running away with this. How could it be the case given that immigration is such a big issue?
Phone polls: too many Islington Labour, too few WWC; too many Cameroon Tories, too few LMC provincial strivers. Am I right?
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.
I'm a yougov panel member and I do wonder about the methodology - huge lists of questions which are often quite difficult to answer (things like how many takeaways have you ordered in the past X months, how many charities have you donated to etc etc) and after you've got through several screens of that kind of thing you might get some political questions. And there's no back button so you can't correct something if you realise you made a mistake.
Frankly I often guess my answers to the non-political stuff - I wonder how many other panelists guess the politics bit as well....
It's not a ban on the Catalan flag, it's a ban on the Catalan independence flag. It just shows that the Spanish nationalists in Madrid are as pig-headed and stupid as the Catalan nationalists in Barcelona.
Being Pro-EU is intrinsically Statist. That does not necessarily equate with right wing.
Not necessarily. It depends on your frame of reference. A small-government liberal might think that having the EU is a price worth paying if the alternative is a communist dictatorship in a major European country.
Your view would certainly be in the minority in most eastern European member states.
But there's no realistic chance of that happening in this country.
And is that all that counts? It doesn't strike be as a very global outlook. Rather little-Englander in fact.
For me, yes, and if Putin tries to take over Eastern Europe, we can look at a NATO response with our NATO allies.
I honestly couldn't care less what happens to the EU if we do leave. So far the opinions for our report range from apocalyptic to a collective shrug of shoulders, I think it will be closer to the latter than the former.
There's the shambles over the non-negotiation, negotiation fiasco. There's flying in POTUS to threaten his own citizens in their own country (at the taxpayers expense) there's the decade of lying about being a eurosceptic, there's the claims that people who want to leave the EU are supporters of ISIS, Putin, North Korea, etc. etc. etc.
Swapping £1.7m of campaigning goodies for Remain in exchange for watered down Trade Union Bill. Makes Neil Hamilton look flawless.
Leaving the BBC as it despite the Licence Fee being rendered moot by technology and despite the massive increase in foreign language speakers in this country.
As the PB voice of Labour Leave, I can let you all know what is happening on the left - we haven't got a look-in against the organised weight of Labour campaigning for a Remain vote at all levels.
I thought Galloway would have been more prominent in pushing the left message for Leave, and I don't think anyone else has enough clout to be listened to. The only way for Leave to get a bigger slice of Labour voters is if Cameron and his mates manage to piss everyone off.
I've seen some stuff from Gisela, but Frank is invisible - to be fair, I'm struggling to think of heavyweight Labour Remainers in the media either. I'm guessing the unions and activists are making up with the groundwar.
As the PB voice of Labour Leave, I can let you all know what is happening on the left - we haven't got a look-in against the organised weight of Labour campaigning for a Remain vote at all levels.
I thought Galloway would have been more prominent in pushing the left message for Leave, and I don't think anyone else has enough clout to be listened to. The only way for Leave to get a bigger slice of Labour voters is if Cameron and his mates manage to piss everyone off.
One thing I have noticed about my fellow working class friends from all political persuasions, is that they tend to have a low bullshit threshold. When Cameron came out with the 'War' nonsense, not the one of them treated it with anything but total contempt. But I do live in East Anglia, which is apparently is the most Eurosceptic area of the country.
Instinctively, that YouGov research rings true. It doesn't feel like Remain is running away with this. How could it be the case given that immigration is such a big issue?
Phone polls: too many Islington Labour, too few WWC; too many Cameroon Tories, too few LMC provincial strivers. Am I right?
There are a lot of WWC Labour voters in Islington. But, yes, broadly speaking I suspect that YouGov may be onto something. It's not scientific, but it feels like a very close race to me. I just don't see how immigration can be such a big issue with Remain being so far ahead in the polls. And immigration really is a very big issue.
As the PB voice of Labour Leave, I can let you all know what is happening on the left - we haven't got a look-in against the organised weight of Labour campaigning for a Remain vote at all levels.
I thought Galloway would have been more prominent in pushing the left message for Leave, and I don't think anyone else has enough clout to be listened to. The only way for Leave to get a bigger slice of Labour voters is if Cameron and his mates manage to piss everyone off.
Dear god if your relying on Galloway to energize the left LEAVE message then you might just as well go out canvassing and offer to meow at the voters in a prone position, which might be ok Chez Plato but unlikely to get the majority of the electorate purring at the prospect.
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
Instinctively, that YouGov research rings true. It doesn't feel like Remain is running away with this. How could it be the case given that immigration is such a big issue?
Phone polls: too many Islington Labour, too few WWC; too many Cameroon Tories, too few LMC provincial strivers. Am I right?
There are a lot of WWC Labour voters in Islington. But, yes, broadly speaking I suspect that YouGov may be onto something. It's not scientific, but it feels like a very close race to me. I just don't see how immigration can be such a big issue with Remain being so far ahead in the polls. And immigration really is a very big issue.
I think a lot more people are genuinely drawn to the idea of leaving, and then they see the 'Official' leave campaigners. And they think, how can they want the same thing that I want, they're obnoxious and stupid and the economics is just fairytale nonsense.
As the PB voice of Labour Leave, I can let you all know what is happening on the left - we haven't got a look-in against the organised weight of Labour campaigning for a Remain vote at all levels.
I thought Galloway would have been more prominent in pushing the left message for Leave, and I don't think anyone else has enough clout to be listened to. The only way for Leave to get a bigger slice of Labour voters is if Cameron and his mates manage to piss everyone off.
But Galloway is seen as a divisive demagogue by the Corbynite left - and, indeed, almost everyone else in the Labour Party. The fact that he appeared at the opening Leave rally clasping the hands of Farage says it all really. He has no credibility.
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
What matters is that people think she's moderate and she'll be very difficult for Labour to handle as a daughter of a migrant.
That Yougov poll really could hold the key to the referendum. If it is a very narrow "Remain" victory, or a leave one then they will have had a redemption from the GE.
Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Putting personalities aside, where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree? * They want to leave the EU. * They are climate change sceptics. * They want to substantially reduce immigration. * They want to fundamentally change the NHS. * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. * They want to restructure the BBC.
As the PB voice of Labour Leave, I can let you all know what is happening on the left - we haven't got a look-in against the organised weight of Labour campaigning for a Remain vote at all levels.
I thought Galloway would have been more prominent in pushing the left message for Leave, and I don't think anyone else has enough clout to be listened to. The only way for Leave to get a bigger slice of Labour voters is if Cameron and his mates manage to piss everyone off.
Dear god if your relying on Galloway to energize the left LEAVE message then you might just as well go out canvassing and offer to meow at the voters in a prone position, which might be ok Chez Plato but unlikely to get the majority of the electorate purring at the prospect.
To be fair Jack, I didn't have you in mind as the target of a Galloway campaign message!
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
And there is still a month to go. Many of the Leavers on PB don't really have a clue what is happening on the left part of the political spectrum so they make up theories that fit their own prejudices, e.g. Plato's wonderful theory down thread that lefties will vote Leave to remove Cameron. "Vote Leave to get rid of a PM who has said he's leaving anyway and replace him with a more right wing Tory". Genius. What could possibly go wrong!
But predicting how precisely the working class are going to vote is a key element in all this. One recent pollster had the Labour vote splitting 80% to REMAIN and 20% to LEAVE.... A ratio that seems barely credible when we watch and hear in the media people that are working class raise time and time again their concerns on immigration. Or is the Labour party down to having just a small % of its vote from the working class? Maybe in Scotland, but England and Wales? Frank Field is certainly concerned about the schism that is developing between Labour and working class voters.
Many working class voters are not left of centre.
What I am saying is that Leave has remained largely a right-wing campaign and its failure to convince many left of centre voters (be they Labour, Lib Dem, Green,or SNP) will be their undoing IMO
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
What matters is that people think she's moderate and she'll be very difficult for Labour to handle as a daughter of a migrant.
Maggie mk.II
I, for one, look forward to PM Priti.
They only have to look at what she has said to know that she is not a moderate.
Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.
Maybe quite a few ex-pats will take advantage of the offer to fly home to vote Leave.
Two pieces currently running on Telegraph Money section -
One saying that UK pensions could be frozen in EU if we Brexit (as they are in Canada and Australia now)
One saying that the European EHIC Health card would cease if we Brexit and leave EEA (which I believe is Leave's current preferred option)
Don't there will be many EU expats rushing back to vote Leave.
If it freezes any one of Mandlesons pensions then fine. In practice next to impossible to carry out.
We all have to have travel insurance anyway. Basically this will finally stop the abuse of our NHS.
Instinctively, that YouGov research rings true. It doesn't feel like Remain is running away with this. How could it be the case given that immigration is such a big issue?
Phone polls: too many Islington Labour, too few WWC; too many Cameroon Tories, too few LMC provincial strivers. Am I right?
There are a lot of WWC Labour voters in Islington. But, yes, broadly speaking I suspect that YouGov may be onto something. It's not scientific, but it feels like a very close race to me. I just don't see how immigration can be such a big issue with Remain being so far ahead in the polls. And immigration really is a very big issue.
I think a lot more people are genuinely drawn to the idea of leaving, and then they see the 'Official' leave campaigners. And they think, how can they want the same thing that I want, they're obnoxious and stupid and the economics is just fairytale nonsense.
Yep - the Leave campaign is certainly not helping its cause. It is very right wing and that would certainly put a lot of people off. But immigration is just such a huge calling card.
That Yougov poll really could hold the key to the referendum. If it is a very narrow "Remain" victory, or a leave one then they will have had a redemption from the GE.
And boy do Yougov need a redemption.
Their shares have been doing very well - up about 40% in the past year.
Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Putting personalities aside, where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree? * They want to leave the EU. * They are climate change sceptics. * They want to substantially reduce immigration. * They want to fundamentally change the NHS. * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. * They want to restructure the BBC.
What am I missing here?
1. Agee 2. Not bothered either way, think we need to move to better energy, coal, oil and gas are not the future 3. Not bothered 4. Not at all 5. Want to cut waste, happy with the current tax levels, though I think raising the 40p rate to 42p and then eliminating allowance withdrawal and the 45p rate is something to look at. 6. I'd like to set it free to compete which means no more public ownership, I'm happy for them to look at a subscription model if they don't want to deal with advertising and commercial interests. HBO does it very successfully in the US, I don't see why the BBC couldn't do it here (and expand BBC America at the same time).
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
And I'll be joining you there. Priti is many things but Tory moderate she ain't.
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.
I think that's as certain as anything in politics. If he were the Democratic nominee he'd get filleted.
I agree, he is getting an easy ride from the right because they prefer to try to hurt HRC at the moment. His "socialist" views would be portrayed as anathema to US values if he were ever the nominee. Regardless of the polls I think Clinton is significantly the better bet as far as beating Trump goes.
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
And I'll be joining you there. Priti is many things but Tory moderate she ain't.
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.
Trump v Sanders would be too anti establishment candidates battling it out and Trump's message of being an anti elite rebel would have less traction than against the establishment Hillary, he would simply be pushing an anti immigration message while Sanders bashes Wall Street
Instinctively, that YouGov research rings true. It doesn't feel like Remain is running away with this. How could it be the case given that immigration is such a big issue?
Phone polls: too many Islington Labour, too few WWC; too many Cameroon Tories, too few LMC provincial strivers. Am I right?
There are a lot of WWC Labour voters in Islington. But, yes, broadly speaking I suspect that YouGov may be onto something. It's not scientific, but it feels like a very close race to me. I just don't see how immigration can be such a big issue with Remain being so far ahead in the polls. And immigration really is a very big issue.
I think a lot more people are genuinely drawn to the idea of leaving, and then they see the 'Official' leave campaigners. And they think, how can they want the same thing that I want, they're obnoxious and stupid and the economics is just fairytale nonsense.
Yes I think there is something in that argument. I know several people in Labour who have always been sceptics but are voting Reamin because of the weight of Labour opinion and antipathy toward the leaders of Leave - Farage in particular.
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.
I think that's as certain as anything in politics. If he were the Democratic nominee he'd get filleted.
I agree, he is getting an easy ride from the right because they prefer to try to hurt HRC at the moment. His "socialist" views would be portrayed as anathema to US values if he were ever the nominee. Regardless of the polls I think Clinton is significantly the better bet as far as beating Trump goes.
The same applied in reverse a few weeks ago when people were citing polls with Kasich doing better against Clinton. She would have been far more comfortable running against Kasich, Cruz or Rubio than against Trump.
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
And I'll be joining you there. Priti is many things but Tory moderate she ain't.
I said moderate Leaver.
Do you mean compared to other leading leavers such as Jenkin or Redwood or Farage etc?
we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
One of "your people" had the top job in the Conservative Party, and was a humongous loser.
Closet Kippers are not losing because they are in the wrong party, it's because they suck at politics
Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005
2001 yes - but by 2005 Blair had become a liability for Labour . The 2005 election was won in spite of Blair - not because of him . Brown would have obtained a bigger majority at that time.
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
And I'll be joining you there. Priti is many things but Tory moderate she ain't.
I said moderate Leaver.
Do you mean compared to other leading leavers such as Jenkin or Redwood or Farage etc?
Is that supposed to reassure?
When Priti becomes our new Dictatrix I don't know what she'll do to the Wets, maybe chain them up?
Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Putting personalities aside, where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree? * They want to leave the EU. * They are climate change sceptics. * They want to substantially reduce immigration. * They want to fundamentally change the NHS. * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. * They want to restructure the BBC.
What am I missing here?
Which is why UKIP will be targeting Tory Leavers if Remain will narrowly
However, some were beginning to put any warnings about what might happen if we stayed or left – however mild and well-reasoned – into the scaremongering category. Others were frustrated by this, seeing it as laziness and an excuse not to engage (“you can’t just dismiss people. He knows what he is talking about… You say the word ‘scaremongering’ but there must be some truth in it.”)
"Worst album cover ever: Cameron tries to recreate famous Abbey Road album cover with Labour’s Tessa Jowell - and then meets the luvvies who signed a letter claiming Brexit would make ‘less imaginative’
PM joins ex-Labour Culture Secretary on visit to Abbey Road studios in London Artists, actors and musicians have signed warning letter in the Guardian Letter says Britain is stronger, more imaginative and creative in Europe Among signatories are Paloma Faith, Sam Taylor-Wood and Danny Boyle Benedict Cumberbatch, Jude Law and Steve Coogan also join campaign
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.
I think that's as certain as anything in politics. If he were the Democratic nominee he'd get filleted.
I agree, he is getting an easy ride from the right because they prefer to try to hurt HRC at the moment. His "socialist" views would be portrayed as anathema to US values if he were ever the nominee. Regardless of the polls I think Clinton is significantly the better bet as far as beating Trump goes.
Sanders' message, the rich are getting richer while the average American stagnated actually has a lot of support, it would be an election on whether the average American hates Wall Street and Silicon Valley or illegal Mexican immigrants and China more
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.
I think that's as certain as anything in politics. If he were the Democratic nominee he'd get filleted.
I agree, he is getting an easy ride from the right because they prefer to try to hurt HRC at the moment. His "socialist" views would be portrayed as anathema to US values if he were ever the nominee. Regardless of the polls I think Clinton is significantly the better bet as far as beating Trump goes.
The same applied in reverse a few weeks ago when people were citing polls with Kasich doing better against Clinton. She would have been far more comfortable running against Kasich, Cruz or Rubio than against Trump.
Kasich would have comfortably beaten Hillary and probably Rubio too, Hillary had a lucky escape as Trump is beatable
we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
One of "your people" had the top job in the Conservative Party, and was a humongous loser.
Closet Kippers are not losing because they are in the wrong party, it's because they suck at politics
Well, considering the absolute wipeout of the Conservative Party in 1997 (under one of "your people", I seem to remember) anybody leading the Conservative Party was going to lose in 2001 and 2005. Cameron didn't even get a majority in the more propitious year of 2010, such was the damage Major did, who is still blaming anyone but himself after all these years.
Reading Leaver comments on here today I am struggling to see where John Major was wrong in his analysis. Putting personalities aside, where do UKIPers and Tory leavers disagree? * They want to leave the EU. * They are climate change sceptics. * They want to substantially reduce immigration. * They want to fundamentally change the NHS. * They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes. * They want to restructure the BBC.
What am I missing here?
1. Yes.
2. I'm "agnostic" on climate change (i.e climate is clearly changing and I'm open all explanations for why that should be)
3. I've always been extremely relaxed about immigration actually. I see Brexit as a sovereignty issue primarily.
4. Not at all. Have always been a big supporter of the NHS and it concerns me greatly to see the Posh Boys bankrupting it.
5. I want sound public finances.
6. I've changed my mind on BBC reform actually. I think they should probably leave it alone.
"Worst album cover ever: Cameron tries to recreate famous Abbey Road album cover with Labour’s Tessa Jowell - and then meets the luvvies who signed a letter claiming Brexit would make ‘less imaginative’
PM joins ex-Labour Culture Secretary on visit to Abbey Road studios in London Artists, actors and musicians have signed warning letter in the Guardian Letter says Britain is stronger, more imaginative and creative in Europe Among signatories are Paloma Faith, Sam Taylor-Wood and Danny Boyle Benedict Cumberbatch, Jude Law and Steve Coogan also join campaign
However, some were beginning to put any warnings about what might happen if we stayed or left – however mild and well-reasoned – into the scaremongering category. Others were frustrated by this, seeing it as laziness and an excuse not to engage (“you can’t just dismiss people. He knows what he is talking about… You say the word ‘scaremongering’ but there must be some truth in it.”)
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
If Priti Patel is a moderate I am a fully paid up member of the Communist party. And I'm not.
What matters is that people think she's moderate and she'll be very difficult for Labour to handle as a daughter of a migrant.
Maggie mk.II
I, for one, look forward to PM Priti.
Me too. About time we had a strong woman at the top.
Today's Cameron would have lost against Blair in 2001 and 2005
IDS would have lost against Gordo, and Ed.
Let's face it, IDS makes Corbyn look like the model of intellectualism and restraint. Quite why Leave were in raptures when he decided to appoint himself as their front man is a mystery. He's basically doing the same to the Brexit cause as he did to John Major and the Middle East. Everything he gets involved with he destroys.
Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.
Maybe quite a few ex-pats will take advantage of the offer to fly home to vote Leave.
Two pieces currently running on Telegraph Money section -
One saying that UK pensions could be frozen in EU if we Brexit (as they are in Canada and Australia now)
One saying that the European EHIC Health card would cease if we Brexit and leave EEA (which I believe is Leave's current preferred option)
Don't there will be many EU expats rushing back to vote Leave.
If it freezes any one of Mandlesons pensions then fine. In practice next to impossible to carry out.
We all have to have travel insurance anyway. Basically this will finally stop the abuse of our NHS.
Next.....
In a number of countries Pensions are already frozen at the level they were at when people left the UK. Your are talking out of your rear end when you say it's "impossible to carry out" It will be a big concern to the thousands of UK pensioners living in the EU. You also appear to have completely misunderstood the significance of the EHIC card. Not quite the clever dick you think you are I'm afraid.
we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.
One of "your people" had the top job in the Conservative Party, and was a humongous loser.
Closet Kippers are not losing because they are in the wrong party, it's because they suck at politics
Well, considering the absolute wipeout of the Conservative Party in 1997 (under one of "your people", I seem to remember) anybody leading the Conservative Party was going to lose in 2001 and 2005. Cameron didn't even get a majority in the more propitious year of 2010, such was the damage Major did, who is still blaming anyone but himself after all these years.
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.
I think that's as certain as anything in politics. If he were the Democratic nominee he'd get filleted.
I agree, he is getting an easy ride from the right because they prefer to try to hurt HRC at the moment. His "socialist" views would be portrayed as anathema to US values if he were ever the nominee. Regardless of the polls I think Clinton is significantly the better bet as far as beating Trump goes.
The same applied in reverse a few weeks ago when people were citing polls with Kasich doing better against Clinton. She would have been far more comfortable running against Kasich, Cruz or Rubio than against Trump.
I think she would beat Cruz comfortable, Rubio less comfortably and lose to Katich.
Trump is definitely tears up the political rule book but I am still on a Clinton win betting wise.
Comments
I thought Galloway would have been more prominent in pushing the left message for Leave, and I don't think anyone else has enough clout to be listened to. The only way for Leave to get a bigger slice of Labour voters is if Cameron and his mates manage to piss everyone off.
Hope Jeremy enjoyed the last few days
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/may/19/barcelona-copa-del-rey-catalonia-flags
So instead they're planning on some 10,000 saltires.
http://www.elmundo.es/deportes/2016/05/20/573edf1722601d6f5c8b45dc.html
Freedom!
"Forward Brave Heart" (Robert the Bruce's, that is) was last heard in Spain after all.
Sanders has largely been given a pass during much of the process just as Obama was in the first phases of 2008. The difference is that Obama as the insurgent built up a solid lead fairly early on whereas Sanders has trailed in closed primaries with heavy minority voting.
Meanwhile ....
Katie Glueck of "Politico" looks at whether Georgia and Arizona are on the table for Clinton :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trumps-map-the-downside-223393
Closet Kippers are not losing because they are in the wrong party, it's because they suck at politics
Also can someone explain how YouGov's new weightings would effect this/these poll results?
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/733580934629363712
Frankly I often guess my answers to the non-political stuff - I wonder how many other panelists guess the politics bit as well....
I honestly couldn't care less what happens to the EU if we do leave. So far the opinions for our report range from apocalyptic to a collective shrug of shoulders, I think it will be closer to the latter than the former.
Maggie mk.II
I, for one, look forward to PM Priti.
And boy do Yougov need a redemption.
* They want to leave the EU.
* They are climate change sceptics.
* They want to substantially reduce immigration.
* They want to fundamentally change the NHS.
* They want to significantly cut public spending and taxes.
* They want to restructure the BBC.
What am I missing here?
@GuidoFawkes: EXCLUSIVE: Losing MP Who Complained to Police About #ToryElectionFraud Broke Spending Rules https://t.co/MDTb14nwuZ https://t.co/yT7GKXc6t8
Massive £2.45bn overspend sounds NHS alarm bells http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/massive-2-45bn-overspend-sounds-nhs-alarm-bells-hbkxg0f7z
What I am saying is that Leave has remained largely a right-wing campaign and its failure to convince many left of centre voters (be they Labour, Lib Dem, Green,or SNP) will be their undoing IMO
Victory in London was Jeremy Corbyn's, not Sadiq Khan's
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/05/victory-london-was-jeremy-corbyns-not-sadiq-khans
Including: Zac Goldsmith’s campaign appears to have worked
We all have to have travel insurance anyway. Basically this will finally stop the abuse of our NHS.
Next.....
2. Not bothered either way, think we need to move to better energy, coal, oil and gas are not the future
3. Not bothered
4. Not at all
5. Want to cut waste, happy with the current tax levels, though I think raising the 40p rate to 42p and then eliminating allowance withdrawal and the 45p rate is something to look at.
6. I'd like to set it free to compete which means no more public ownership, I'm happy for them to look at a subscription model if they don't want to deal with advertising and commercial interests. HBO does it very successfully in the US, I don't see why the BBC couldn't do it here (and expand BBC America at the same time).
I agree, he is getting an easy ride from the right because they prefer to try to hurt HRC at the moment. His "socialist" views would be portrayed as anathema to US values if he were ever the nominee. Regardless of the polls I think Clinton is significantly the better bet as far as beating Trump goes.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-sanders-maybe-thats-the-ticket-1463700912
Is that supposed to reassure?
Is why you should be laying Priti Patel (calm down Sandy)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU
However, some were beginning to put any warnings about what might happen if we stayed or left – however mild and well-reasoned – into the scaremongering category. Others were frustrated by this, seeing it as laziness and an excuse not to engage (“you can’t just dismiss people. He knows what he is talking about… You say the word ‘scaremongering’ but there must be some truth in it.”)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/scaremongering-hitler-boris-again-and-the-view-from-scotland-referendum-focus-groups-with-34-days-to-go/
"Worst album cover ever: Cameron tries to recreate famous Abbey Road album cover with Labour’s Tessa Jowell - and then meets the luvvies who signed a letter claiming Brexit would make ‘less imaginative’
PM joins ex-Labour Culture Secretary on visit to Abbey Road studios in London
Artists, actors and musicians have signed warning letter in the Guardian
Letter says Britain is stronger, more imaginative and creative in Europe
Among signatories are Paloma Faith, Sam Taylor-Wood and Danny Boyle
Benedict Cumberbatch, Jude Law and Steve Coogan also join campaign
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3600818/Worst-album-cover-Cameron-tries-recreate-famous-Abbey-Road-album-cover-Labour-s-Tessa-Jowell-meets-luvvies-signed-letter-claiming-Brexit-make-imaginative.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
2. I'm "agnostic" on climate change (i.e climate is clearly changing and I'm open all explanations for why that should be)
3. I've always been extremely relaxed about immigration actually. I see Brexit as a sovereignty issue primarily.
4. Not at all. Have always been a big supporter of the NHS and it concerns me greatly to see the Posh Boys bankrupting it.
5. I want sound public finances.
6. I've changed my mind on BBC reform actually. I think they should probably leave it alone.
"Letter says Britain is stronger, more imaginative and creative in Europe "
These people need "We're not leaving Europe, just the EU" in 10 foot high flaming letters in front of them.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Trump is definitely tears up the political rule book but I am still on a Clinton win betting wise.