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Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
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Cameron learnt the lesson extremely well. That's why he put so much effort into his succcessful policy of not allowing splits over the EU to dominate Conservative politics; it worked for an entire decade.Alanbrooke said:It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
Unlike some others, I don't think the splits will be bad once the referendum is over. What would be the point of feuding over a decision which voters will have taken? Any residual personal rancour can be diverted onto Cameron as he rides off into the sunset, and the party can unite under its new leader, Theresa May.0 -
UKIP should replace Farage with Neil Hamilton.Alanbrooke said:
Yes I'd agree with that.AlastairMeeks said:@Alanbrooke I have been predicting for a long time that the Conservatives will be hopelessly riven for a long time to come after the referendum. If UKIP weren't headed by Nigel Farage, I'd see the chances of a chunk of the Conservative right shearing off to join them as substantial.
Ironically, Douglas Carswell's experiences may well have been good for the Conservative party in the long term. What Conservative MP would rush to risk getting involved in UKIP's Game Of Thrones re-enactment?
While I regularly get accused of being a kipper, I don't vote for them as I think Farage is a prat.
If they got a half decent leader I'd seriously consider it.
That would really frighten the Tory leadership. Honest.0 -
For betting purposes they add up to 107.1% ^_~Richard_Tyndall said:
Should the Betfair numbers add up to 100%? They currently add up to 102%Richard_Nabavi said:I thought it might be interesting to look at the probabilities by band in the Number Cruncher Politics model (posted earlier):
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/euref/
I printed out the graph of the modelled probability distribution and made a rough measurement of the areas to get probability by Remain percentage band. It comes out something like this:
Under 45%: 6%
45% to 50%: 13%
[i.e 19% probability of a Remain win]
50% to 55%: 22%
55% to 60%: 25%
60% to 65%: 19%
Over 65%: 14%
Contrast with midpoint Betfair implied probabilities:
Under 45%: 5%
45% to 50%: 17%
50% to 55%: 29%
55% to 60%: 30%
60% to 65%: 15%
Over 65%: 6%
Not too inconsistent. Might be a case of garabge in, garbage out, of course. Of the two sets, the Betfair probabilities look more plausible to me, the NCP model looks too flat (i.e it gives too high a probability to the extremes of the distribution). But who knows?0 -
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I think it's about more than just the party, there are enough traditional righties voting with their feet to make a Conservative government an outside possibility.JohnO said:
Assuming (and who knows?) Remain win comfortably, say 10% or more, the vast majority (90%) of Leave MPs and members will want the party re-united, and that sentiment has to be reflected in any Ministerial reshuffle. Yes, Gove, Pritti Patel and Boris have doubtless irritated the leadership but what has surprised me (and going back to my callow youth days of 1975) is the singular absence of Tory backbench MPs, in this instance, lambasting each other on TV or social media. A splendid example of campaigning without rancour is my own MP, Dom Raab, who is a prominent leaver.Alanbrooke said:
I'm not a member of the CP, but the trend on PB seems to be tory remainers saying peace and harmony will break out and divisions will heal and the leavers say 4cough.JohnO said:
Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.david_herdson said:
If there's action about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.Scott_P said:
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffledavid_herdson said:By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
You both can't be right.
But there IS the matter of the 10% or so irreconciliable MPs - the David Davis, Philip Davies, Bernard Jenkin, Steven Baker, the Mogg, and a number of others. The Government's tiny majority does mean they can be held hostage at any time, and indeed many of these were rebels in the 2010 Parliament, so the current referendum campaign is simply an excuse for serial disloyalty. I'm afraid there's not much any mainstream leader can do to assuage them for the present.
Perhaps if the Tories are enjoying a double-digit lead in the run-up to 2020, a few of the most egregious could be ejected from the parliamentary party, and barred from standing as Conservative candidates at the election!
Thay can't rely on Jezza and the SNP for ever.0 -
Apart from Peter Lilley, Steve Baker (now, that's a shock) and Ann Marie Trevelyan, I can't find the other twenty plus who put their names to the T-TIP NHS amendment to the Queen's Speech. I've even searched Hansard but without success. I'm surprised ConHome hasn't published the list.Sean_F said:
Is there a list of the rebel MPs?AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.
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Given that I know you don't believe this rubbish and realise that the EU is primarily a political union, is winning by putting forwards false arguments such as these really going to serve the long term future of this country?TheScreamingEagles said:
The argument is that we're Better Together part of a Union that has free trade at the heart of it.Alanbrooke said:
LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.Casino_Royale said:
So they do, but there are still five weeks left.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic Betfair think this is all over.
If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.
If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
In order to defeat Farage, you're handing the keys to Westminster over to the federalists in Brussels. You may be able to live with that, I'm not sure I would be able to.0 -
No, because they are implied probabilities from the midpoint of the Back/Lay prices, and there's also the overround. Don't take them too literally because the market is not all that liquid (the spread on the outlying bands is quite big).Richard_Tyndall said:
Should the Betfair numbers add up to 100%? They currently add up to 102%0 -
Matthew 7 : 3CarlottaVance said:
If there's one thing the right wing of the Tories do well, its rancour......whatever the result of the REMAIN margin (assuming it is REMAIN) the Right will be in a huff that will make Heath's 'Great Sulk' seem reasonable and proportionate by comparison......Alanbrooke said:
He's still win and not have the rancour. As it is I can't see his hopes of healing a rift being remotely realistic.AlastairMeeks said:@Alanbrooke The offer to the Conservative right wing runs as follows: "You wanted a referendum, you got a referendum. Problem?"
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".0 -
Don't do anything silly!MaxPB said:
Given that I know you don't believe this rubbish and realise that the EU is primarily a political union, is winning by putting forwards false arguments such as these really going to serve the long term future of this country?TheScreamingEagles said:
The argument is that we're Better Together part of a Union that has free trade at the heart of it.Alanbrooke said:
LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.Casino_Royale said:
So they do, but there are still five weeks left.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic Betfair think this is all over.
If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.
If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
In order to defeat Farage, you're handing the keys to Westminster over to the federalists in Brussels. You may be able to live with that, I'm not sure I would be able to.0 -
of course you don't Richard, but thyen you persuaded to stop voting Conservtaive several years back, so how would you know ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Cameron learnt the lesson extremely well. That's why he put so much effort into his succcessful policy of not allowing splits over the EU to dominate Conservative politics; it worked for an entire decade.Alanbrooke said:It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
Unlike some others, I don't think the splits will be bad once the referendum is over. What would be the point of feuding over a decision which voters will have taken? Any residual personal rancour can be diverted onto Cameron as he rides off into the sunset, and the party can unite under its new leader, Theresa May.0 -
He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.
And having conned them, he has conspired to pull out every single known political stop and some unknown ones to oppose them.
David Cameron can't stand conservatives, but he needed them to get power. He knew he would never achieve it through his own political home, the liberal democrats.0 -
Not reflected in the polls though, is it, with the Tories still in the lead and only a few points down on their GE levels.Alanbrooke said:
I think it's about more than just the party, there are enough traditional righties voting with their feet to make a Conservative government an outside possibility.JohnO said:
Assuming (and who knows?) Remain win comfortably, say 10% or more, the vast majority (90%) of Leave MPs and members will want the party re-united, and that sentiment has to be reflected in any Ministerial reshuffle. Yes, Gove, Pritti Patel and Boris have doubtless irritated the leadership but what has surprised me (and going back to my callow youth days of 1975) is the singular absence of Tory backbench MPs, in this instance, lambasting each other on TV or social media. A splendid example of campaigning without rancour is my own MP, Dom Raab, who is a prominent leaver.Alanbrooke said:
I'm not a member of the CP, but the trend on PB seems to be tory remainers saying peace and harmony will break out and divisions will heal and the leavers say 4cough.JohnO said:
Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.david_herdson said:
If there's action about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.Scott_P said:
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffledavid_herdson said:By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
You both can't be right.
But there IS the matter of the 10% or so irreconciliable MPs - the David Davis, Philip Davies, Bernard Jenkin, Steven Baker, the Mogg, and a number of others. The Government's tiny majority does mean they can be held hostage at any time, and indeed many of these were rebels in the 2010 Parliament, so the current referendum campaign is simply an excuse for serial disloyalty. I'm afraid there's not much any mainstream leader can do to assuage them for the present.
Perhaps if the Tories are enjoying a double-digit lead in the run-up to 2020, a few of the most egregious could be ejected from the parliamentary party, and barred from standing as Conservative candidates at the election!
Thay can't rely on Jezza and the SNP for ever.0 -
Conned them into thinking he could win, and did.anothernick said:He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.
Conned them into thinking he would offer a referendum, and did.
Yup, I can see why they hate him for that...0 -
I am particularly proud that I helped you in your quest to find your soul! This is probably my only political achievement.Alanbrooke said:of course you don't Richard, but thyen you persuaded to stop voting Conservtaive several years back, so how would you know ?
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Given how quite a few of us have been really turned off Cameron, one would think a moment of reflection would be in order.Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.0 -
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....0 -
Did they actually get that far, or were they just threatening to do so?JohnO said:
Apart from Peter Lilley, Steve Baker (now, that's a shock) and Ann Marie Trevelyan, I can't find the other twenty plus who put their names to the T-TIP NHS amendment to the Queen's Speech. I've even searched Hansard but without success. I'm surprised ConHome hasn't published the list.Sean_F said:
Is there a list of the rebel MPs?AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.
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He conned them into thinking he was genuinely on the fence about the EU and he might recommend a Leave vote.Scott_P said:
Conned them into thinking he could win, and did.anothernick said:He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.
Conned them into thinking he would offer a referendum, and did.
Yup, I can see why they hate him for that...0 -
Much like how Tony hijacked Labour for his own ends... And left them a broken, ruined, wreckage... The same fate await the Tories post Cameron.taffys said:He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.
And having conned them, he has conspired to pull out every single known political stop and some unknown ones to oppose them.
David Cameron can't stand conservatives, but he needed them to get power. He knew he would never achieve it through his own political home, the liberal democrats.0 -
In the event of Remain winning, I think every word that Cameron has uttered about the benefits of staying in will be thrown in his face when Brussels does what it normally does0
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Perhaps Brookie might compose a limerick on his eccentric political trajectory. (As long as it ends with Nookie).Richard_Nabavi said:
I am particularly proud that I helped you in your quest to find your soul! This is probably my only political achievement.Alanbrooke said:of course you don't Richard, but thyen you persuaded to stop voting Conservtaive several years back, so how would you know ?
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John 8 : 7Alanbrooke said:
Matthew 7 : 3CarlottaVance said:
If there's one thing the right wing of the Tories do well, its rancour......whatever the result of the REMAIN margin (assuming it is REMAIN) the Right will be in a huff that will make Heath's 'Great Sulk' seem reasonable and proportionate by comparison......Alanbrooke said:
He's still win and not have the rancour. As it is I can't see his hopes of healing a rift being remotely realistic.AlastairMeeks said:@Alanbrooke The offer to the Conservative right wing runs as follows: "You wanted a referendum, you got a referendum. Problem?"
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".0 -
Mr O the point was made last night that ABC1s are very heavily in favour of Remain, and I wondered if that was your experience in your recent canvassing. Elmbridge must be as ABC1 as it gets, and yet I got the impression from your posts it wasn;t quite as remain as might be expected.JohnO said:
Perhaps Brookie might compose a limerick on his eccentric political trajectory. (As long as it ends with Nookie).Richard_Nabavi said:
I am particularly proud that I helped you in your quest to find your soul! This is probably my only political achievement.Alanbrooke said:of course you don't Richard, but thyen you persuaded to stop voting Conservtaive several years back, so how would you know ?
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Swapping £1.7m of campaigning goodies for Remain in exchange for watered down Trade Union Bill. Makes Neil Hamilton look flawless.GIN1138 said:
Let's see.midwinter said:Whats up with the hate for Dave?
There's the shambles over the non-negotiation, negotiation fiasco. There's flying in POTUS to threaten his own citizens in their own country (at the taxpayers expense) there's the decade of lying about being a eurosceptic, there's the claims that people who want to leave the EU are supporters of ISIS, Putin, North Korea, etc. etc. etc.0 -
Data was collected over a significantly longer fieldwork period than typical telephone polls (two weeks). Phone calls were made between 9am and 9pm Monday to Sunday. Feedback Market Research generated numbers to call based on the standard procedure of taking a number from the phone directory and then randomising the final digit. Respondents were called back up to three times if they could not be reached on the first call.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
They are edging towards methodology and field practice used by social research organisations undertaking government research.
Call attempts should be between six and twelve attempts for the same respondent.
Chase them like the Mounties - always get your man.0 -
So Owen Jones and various hard-left luminaries are now for Leave, damning the EU as a neo-liberal capitalist tool of oppression. Fantastic stuff! Nothing could convince me further that I've been right all along.Plato_Says said:0 -
Thatcher won 1979 from the right even if therafter she populated her cabinet with "wets." Mind you it is not clear why a desire to leave the EU should necessarily be equated with being on the right.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....0 -
I suspect he'll be off to a life of luxury long before his words can catch up with him. Osborne on the other hand...Blue_rog said:In the event of Remain winning, I think every word that Cameron has uttered about the benefits of staying in will be thrown in his face when Brussels does what it normally does
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What bliss it was to be alive to relive those Tory landslides of 2001 and 2005.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....0 -
Well, if Hamilton is destined to lead UKIP, Nigel won't be voting for him:
To Farage’s horror, the disgraced former Tory MP [Neil Hamilton] was elected to the Welsh Assembly earlier this month, and promptly usurped the party’s Welsh group leader. “Douglas has always advocated new politics, probity, transparency – this is his public image. And then he’s chosen to be the champion of someone like Neil Hamilton! I really don’t understand that.” He consoles himself with the prediction that Hamilton’s political resurrection won’t last long before he disgraces himself again. “He’ll do it to himself, it’s alright.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/20/nigel-farage-ukip-eu-referendum-interview-vote-leave-brief-every-day0 -
*cough* Boris *cough*anothernick said:He conned them into thinking he was genuinely on the fence about the EU
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The Govt has said that if Bercow were to choose the amendment, it would be accepted.Richard_Nabavi said:
Did they actually get that far, or were they just threatening to do so?JohnO said:
Apart from Peter Lilley, Steve Baker (now, that's a shock) and Ann Marie Trevelyan, I can't find the other twenty plus who put their names to the T-TIP NHS amendment to the Queen's Speech. I've even searched Hansard but without success. I'm surprised ConHome hasn't published the list.Sean_F said:
Is there a list of the rebel MPs?AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.
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Both sides are trying to scare people into voting for them by passing off outrageous possibilities as hard facts. People will therefore decide to vote for a number of different reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.OllyT said:Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
It is quite rational for a left of centre voter to vote Remain based on the basis that anything obsessively supported by the Mail, Express, UKIP and right-wing tories cannot be good for them. A Leave victory will inevitably herald a shift to the right in Government as prominent Leavers get promoted, including I suspect the leadership before too long.
You might not like it but a lot of left of centre voters will vote on that basis, Leave is paying the price for failing to make any real headway out of its right-wing comfort zone.0 -
With all due respect, 'Horse Feathers'Norm said:
Thatcher won 1979 from the right even if therafter she populated her cabinet with "wets." Mind you it is not clear why a desire to leave the EU should necessarily be equated with being on the right.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....
Thatcher won 1979 by being 'Not Labour' - which by then was an easy enough sell.0 -
Was it from the right [as its taken to mean today]? I thought it was won in large part based on promises like Right to Buy.Norm said:
Thatcher won 1979 from the right even if therafter she populated her cabinet with "wets." Mind you it is not clear why a desire to leave the EU should necessarily be equated with being on the right.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....0 -
The Guardian's Economics editor Larry Elliott has produced a surprisingly Eurosceptic column.Alanbrooke said:
That's not actually how righties see it. The EU ref is simply one of a variety of points on which righties disagree.AlastairMeeks said:@Alanbrooke The offer to the Conservative right wing runs as follows: "You wanted a referendum, you got a referendum. Problem?"
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".
On the EU ref specifically Cameron is playing fast and loose on pretending he negotiated anything meaningful, overplaying his hand to stay in and using givernment as the spendeing arm of remain. The Leave campaign is fairly shambolic and is unlikely to win so I never quite see why Cameron didn't leave an uncoordinated bunch to marinate in their own juices. He's still win and not have the rancour. As it is I can't see his hopes of healing a rift being remotely realistic.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/20/brexit-best-answer-to-dying-eurozone-eu-undemocratic-elite
It only reinforces the ineptitude of the Leave campaign. There are a lot of people unconvinced by our EU membership but the fact that Leave seems to consist of a grab bag of right wing Tories plus Ukip gives them little chance.0 -
Stark_Dawning said:
So Owen Jones and various hard-left luminaries are now for Leave, damning the EU as a neo-liberal capitalist tool of oppression. Fantastic stuff! Nothing could convince me further that I've been right all along.Plato_Says said:
It must have Corbyn fuming - BUT I THINK THAT TOO!!!0 -
Mr. Dawning, I think it's odd to let someone else's opinion dictate your own view.
Would you be saying that if Owen Jones said we should stay?
I may still vote Conservative at the General Election (my local MP is a sceptic), but it'll be unlikely I do so before then. If the boundaries change and the blue candidate is some pro-EU sort, I'll cast my vote elsewhere.0 -
I don't get this endless strumming that its all the right of the Party who are really pissed. I'm on the left and only remaining in the Party so I can vote in the leadership election. If one wasn't very likely, I'd cancel my subs.taffys said:He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.
And having conned them, he has conspired to pull out every single known political stop and some unknown ones to oppose them.
David Cameron can't stand conservatives, but he needed them to get power. He knew he would never achieve it through his own political home, the liberal democrats.0 -
There's always been a strong left wing argument for leaving the EU. I'm always amazed there aren't more Labour voices for leave given the way Greece has been thrown to the wolves. Spain is forced to suffer a youth unemployment crisis... All in order to keep the "EU show" on the road.Stark_Dawning said:
So Owen Jones and various hard-left luminaries are now for Leave, damning the EU as a neo-liberal capitalist tool of oppression. Fantastic stuff! Nothing could convince me further that I've been right all along.Plato_Says said:
But then Labour stopped speaking for the average working man and woman years ago.
0 -
Yikes, you're easily fooled.GIN1138 said:Let's see.
There's the shambles over the non-negotiation, negotiation fiasco. There's flying in POTUS to threaten his own citizens in their own country (at the taxpayers expense) there's the decade of lying about being a eurosceptic, there's the claims that people who want to leave the EU are supporters of ISIS, Putin, North Korea, etc. etc. etc.
Politician tells porkies shocker. Are you really telling us you didn't adjust for the "Total Bollocks" factor that all of them have ?
That's some admission.
0 -
Am surprised that Genesis 9 7 hasn't been quoted this morning.0
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If it's clear he has always supported remaining how can he have conned anyone?anothernick said:
Then they are very naive.Sandpit said:
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - have been fans of David Cameron since 2005, until the day he decided that a deal about tampons was the best thing since sliced bread and we would have WWIII if we didn't vote for it. I paraphrase only slightly.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Most Tories expected a jovial contest with Gove and Hannan on one side, Osborne and May on the other, with the PM being the PM and keeping the peace.
It has been clear from the start that Cameron has always supported the UK remaining in the EU and all his policy steps, including promising the referendum and the renegotiation process, have been taken with that aim in mind.
He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.0 -
Every single time there is a move to ever closer union that we can't avoid the referendum drum will start beating again. The people are being sold on an economic partnership while the reality is a political union. There is no way that this is sustainable in the long term.Blue_rog said:In the event of Remain winning, I think every word that Cameron has uttered about the benefits of staying in will be thrown in his face when Brussels does what it normally does
0 -
Absolutely yes. I was quite struck by the frequency and vehemence of the Leavers at least in my patch which is probably not as ABC1 as yours or elsewhere in the Borough. And there was a demonstrable anti Tory swing (sighs) and that must, in large part, have been referendum related.taffys said:
Mr O the point was made last night that ABC1s are very heavily in favour of Remain, and I wondered if that was your experience in your recent canvassing. Elmbridge must be as ABC1 as it gets, and yet I got the impression from your posts it wasn;t quite as remain as might be expected.JohnO said:
Perhaps Brookie might compose a limerick on his eccentric political trajectory. (As long as it ends with Nookie).Richard_Nabavi said:
I am particularly proud that I helped you in your quest to find your soul! This is probably my only political achievement.Alanbrooke said:of course you don't Richard, but thyen you persuaded to stop voting Conservtaive several years back, so how would you know ?
Which is why I still treat those polls showing a decisive Remain victory with caution.0 -
0
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Yes, very pertinent. Thanks Tony.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
Presumably you're assuming that Remain wins then? As if Leave wins then euroscepticism is moot.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dawning, I think it's odd to let someone else's opinion dictate your own view.
Would you be saying that if Owen Jones said we should stay?
I may still vote Conservative at the General Election (my local MP is a sceptic), but it'll be unlikely I do so before then. If the boundaries change and the blue candidate is some pro-EU sort, I'll cast my vote elsewhere.
If the referendum settles this for a generation then is how sceptic an MP or prospective MP really all that important? I care more about things like how my MP views taxes, spending etc0 -
And tackling the unions.Philip_Thompson said:
Was it from the right [as its taken to mean today]? I thought it was won in large part based on promises like Right to Buy.Norm said:
Thatcher won 1979 from the right even if therafter she populated her cabinet with "wets." Mind you it is not clear why a desire to leave the EU should necessarily be equated with being on the right.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....0 -
That article is from July last year. The left, including Corbyn & Jones, have now mostly made the Masonic bargain.Stark_Dawning said:
So Owen Jones and various hard-left luminaries are now for Leave, damning the EU as a neo-liberal capitalist tool of oppression. Fantastic stuff! Nothing could convince me further that I've been right all along.Plato_Says said:Golly
twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/7335833038071439360 -
Yes but that also shows why Tory Brexiters are unhappy. They did not care, and probably did not even notice that CCHQ had torn up the Queensbury rules against Labour or on the AV referendum. Dave and Boris both affected to be reluctantly jumping off the fence but Boris copped the flak.Scott_P said:
*cough* Boris *cough*anothernick said:He conned them into thinking he was genuinely on the fence about the EU
0 -
1979, 1983 and 1987.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....
Also 2015 if you believe what Ken Clarke said.
"Talking of the Conservatives’ failure to win an election for 23 years, he said he belongs to the party of pre-1992 that usually won. Asked what that was down to, he said: “Well, it’s become much too rightwing."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/16/ken-clarke-tory-party-is-too-rightwing-and-personal-attacks-wont-work
Elsewhere I recall him quoted on radio as saying the manifesto was too right wing and the party would not win that GE.
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It's the Kippers in their various incarnations who falsely believed they had hijacked the Tory party to achieve their end of leaving the EU and are now reeling from the discovery that they were conning themselves.GIN1138 said:
Much like how Tony hijacked Labour for his own ends... And left them a broken, ruined, wreckage... The same fate await the Tories post Cameron.taffys said:He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.
And having conned them, he has conspired to pull out every single known political stop and some unknown ones to oppose them.
David Cameron can't stand conservatives, but he needed them to get power. He knew he would never achieve it through his own political home, the liberal democrats.0 -
Being pro-EU is intrinsically right wing. The Tory party has never won an election on anything other than on a pro-Europe ticket. Tory Leavers are simply following the cult of Thatcher (the later Thatcher that is, when she was well past her pomp). That Owen Jones and various other hard-Left fellow travellers are now advocating Leave demonstrates that the EU is a linchpin of free enterprise. Leave have done one thing well: closing down the right-wing case for EU membership by hijacking the right-wingers' instinct for patriotism.Norm said:
Thatcher won 1979 from the right even if therafter she populated her cabinet with "wets." Mind you it is not clear why a desire to leave the EU should necessarily be equated with being on the right.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....0 -
This is important:dr_spyn said:You gov tweet.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/733612390646960128
To get such representativeness on the phone requires going back to the same numbers until they're in. This is a key feature of the gold standard BES/NatCen studies, but impossible with fast turnaround phone polls (and unnecessary in online polls that draw from a pre-understood panel).
My understanding is that first attempt contact rates are around a third to a half of a sample in many of these 'gold standard' studies.
By six-nine calls, it's up closer to 95%0 -
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
It's spoiling someone's dayCasino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
0 -
Very interesting Mr O and thanks for replying.JohnO said:
Absolutely yes. I was quite struck by the frequency and vehemence of the Leavers at least in my patch which is probably not as ABC1 as yours or elsewhere in the Borough. And there was a demonstrable anti Tory swing (sighs) and that must, in large part, have been referendum related.taffys said:
Mr O the point was made last night that ABC1s are very heavily in favour of Remain, and I wondered if that was your experience in your recent canvassing. Elmbridge must be as ABC1 as it gets, and yet I got the impression from your posts it wasn;t quite as remain as might be expected.JohnO said:
Perhaps Brookie might compose a limerick on his eccentric political trajectory. (As long as it ends with Nookie).Richard_Nabavi said:
I am particularly proud that I helped you in your quest to find your soul! This is probably my only political achievement.Alanbrooke said:of course you don't Richard, but thyen you persuaded to stop voting Conservtaive several years back, so how would you know ?
Which is why I still treat those polls showing a decisive Remain victory with caution.0 -
Typical REMAINer questioning the motivation of VoteLEAVE:
I think they’re a bit more worried about who succeeds Cameron in No 10.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/20/nigel-farage-ukip-eu-referendum-interview-vote-leave-brief-every-day0 -
Boris has been writing pro-EU articles for years, and jumped for naked political ambition.DecrepitJohnL said:Dave and Boris both affected to be reluctantly jumping off the fence but Boris copped the flak.
He deserves it.
But to claim that Dave has not "copped any flak" suggests you haven't read any of the threads for the last 2 months0 -
A repost from yesterday:Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1103178/The-Benefits-of-Random-Sampling-BSA-Report.pdf
It is well worth a read as it highlights the profiles of easy-to-contact respondents, particularly by political persuasion.0 -
If it's anything like right, a bet on Leave at the current 4.7 or so is an absolute bargain.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
For a view of hardcore Republican #NeverTrumps then redstate.com is a must read.HYUFD said:
A few Cruz and Bush And Kasich voters will not vote for Trump either, polling shows Hillary still has more Democrats backing her against Trump than Trump has RepublicansPulpstar said:
TheSFCEmpire4152 days agoMaxPB said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/
This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.
By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.
Im a Bernie supporter but ill risk a Trump presidency to wake up the DNC and let the know we never wanted her crooked ass from the beginning
60 likes0 -
I don't think Cameron has conned anyone. He always been a Blair-type politician with only a few real principles - and he'll seldom show them. He's an ardent Europhile and if you believed he intended to do any meaningful re-negotiation, you were fooling yourself. Lies are a way of getting his own way. All "good" politicians are like that.
Does anyone expect estate agents to tell the truth? If you want to be a successful political party, you should screen your candidates for sociopathy. If they show lots of signs, they're the ones you want.0 -
And there is still a month to go. Many of the Leavers on PB don't really have a clue what is happening on the left part of the political spectrum so they make up theories that fit their own prejudices, e.g. Plato's wonderful theory down thread that lefties will vote Leave to remove Cameron. "Vote Leave to get rid of a PM who has said he's leaving anyway and replace him with a more right wing Tory". Genius. What could possibly go wrong!anothernick said:
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.Casino_Royale said:
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.OllyT said:Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.0 -
No, the manifesto was anodyne - the only time the Tories tried 'Right in Tooth & Claw' were those great triumphs of 2001 & 2005......Philip_Thompson said:
Was it from the right [as its taken to mean today]? I thought it was won in large part based on promises like Right to Buy.Norm said:
Thatcher won 1979 from the right even if therafter she populated her cabinet with "wets." Mind you it is not clear why a desire to leave the EU should necessarily be equated with being on the right.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....0 -
What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.0
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Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
I'm not sure 'interesting' covers it:
Now however we can reveal a real, significant and evidence-based difference between the two methodologies that explains why they are divergent and why it is online that appears to be calling it correctly.0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov have conducted a simultaneous phone and online poll experiment.
Online: Leave 40% Remain 38%
Phone poll: Leave 39% Remain 36%0 -
@IGcom: IG's #EURef barometer shows an 80% chance that the UK will remain in the EU #Brexit https://t.co/1WgX8JI1dE0
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The line should be "Vote Remain for Osborne", alas, Leave are too timid.OllyT said:
And there is still a month to go. Many of the Leavers on PB don't really have a clue what is happening on the left part of the political spectrum so they make up theories that fit their own prejudices, e.g. Plato's wonderful theory down thread that lefties will vote Leave to remove Cameron. "Vote Leave to get rid of a PM who has said he's leaving anyway and replace him with a more right wing Tory". Genius. What could possibly go wrong!anothernick said:
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.Casino_Royale said:
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.OllyT said:Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.0 -
I would argue with your definitions here.Stark_Dawning said:
Being pro-EU is intrinsically right wing. The Tory party has never won an election on anything other than on a pro-Europe ticket. Tory Leavers are simply following the cult of Thatcher (the later Thatcher that is, when she was well past her pomp). That Owen Jones and various other hard-Left fellow travellers are now advocating Leave demonstrates that the EU is a linchpin of free enterprise. Leave have done one thing well: closing down the right-wing case for EU membership by hijacking the right-wingers' instinct for patriotism.Norm said:
Thatcher won 1979 from the right even if therafter she populated her cabinet with "wets." Mind you it is not clear why a desire to leave the EU should necessarily be equated with being on the right.CarlottaVance said:
Which General Elections have the Tories won from the right?Alanbrooke said:
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.CarlottaVance said:
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......Alanbrooke said:
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.anothernick said:
There is no gratitude in politics.Scott_P said:
NoSandpit said:That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
And you're old enough to separate the Thatcher reality from myth.....
Being Pro-EU is intrinsically Statist. That does not necessarily equate with right wing. One can be economically very dry and almost by definition must in that case be anti.-Statist.
It is the continuing use of the Right/left divide which leafs to confusion when you get socially liberal but economically very dry politicians. Both are perfectly understandable in terms of a small state philosophy.
Of course by the same measure being strongly right wing Statist is clearly a pro-EU position. Unfortunately it also tends to be an anti-democratic position.0 -
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
National - CBS/NY Times
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 44
Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
Sanders 51 .. Trump 38
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/0 -
Not really, "online pollster says online polling the best" is hardly news.CarlottaVance said:Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
I'm not sure 'interesting' covers it:
Now however we can reveal a real, significant and evidence-based difference between the two methodologies that explains why they are divergent and why it is online that appears to be calling it correctly.0 -
Blimey, lesser mortals would be banned for such a slur....TheScreamingEagles said:
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.MaxPB said:What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
0 -
Mr. Thompson, I do think (and have for a long while) that Remain will win.
Who governs us is a serious matter, and Cameron's approach (both his campaign tactics and the deceit over his pretence he might recommend we leave if he didn't get a good enough deal) has irritated me a lot.
Other factors I'll consider is whether my potential MP remains the same, how close the national polls are (if Corbyn looks like he might actually have a chance I'd vote blue, even reluctantly, to stop that) and whether the PM, assuming we have a new one, is more trustworthy.0 -
I think YouGov take their reputation a little more seriously than 'peddler of online polls'.MaxPB said:
Not really, "online pollster says online polling the best" is hardly news.CarlottaVance said:Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
I'm not sure 'interesting' covers it:
Now however we can reveal a real, significant and evidence-based difference between the two methodologies that explains why they are divergent and why it is online that appears to be calling it correctly.
IF their research findings can be replicated - and the overstatement of the more highly educated (and pro-REMAIN) in phone polls applies to other phone-pollsters too - we may have an explanation of the apparently systemic differences....0 -
What slur?tlg86 said:
Blimey, lesser mortals would be banned for such a slur....TheScreamingEagles said:
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
Hales gone...pillock.0
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Single methodology pollster who has carried out both online & phone poll and has a working hypothesis which might explain the differences.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
I think the pollsters are much more worried about 'getting it right' than promoting a particular methodology...0 -
I think it's interesting in itself and interesting that YouGov are going into bat for their approach. It's not inevitable that they do that. They could take the safer "Possible that on this occasion the truth lies somewhere in then middle" line.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.JackW said:National - CBS/NY Times
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 44
Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
Sanders 51 .. Trump 38
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/0 -
4 women have been stabbed in a Sainsbury's car park in Hampton.0
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But predicting how precisely the working class are going to vote is a key element in all this. One recent pollster had the Labour vote splitting 80% to REMAIN and 20% to LEAVE.... A ratio that seems barely credible when we watch and hear in the media people that are working class raise time and time again their concerns on immigration. Or is the Labour party down to having just a small % of its vote from the working class? Maybe in Scotland, but England and Wales? Frank Field is certainly concerned about the schism that is developing between Labour and working class voters.OllyT said:
And there is still a month to go. Many of the Leavers on PB don't really have a clue what is happening on the left part of the political spectrum so they make up theories that fit their own prejudices, e.g. Plato's wonderful theory down thread that lefties will vote Leave to remove Cameron. "Vote Leave to get rid of a PM who has said he's leaving anyway and replace him with a more right wing Tory". Genius. What could possibly go wrong!anothernick said:
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.Casino_Royale said:
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.OllyT said:Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
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I think that's as certain as anything in politics. If he were the Democratic nominee he'd get filleted.NickPalmer said:
Much though I like Sanders, I think these polls don't allow for the fact that Hillary has had endless scrutiny and constant attack for years, whereas Bernie's coverage has been remarkably gentle, apart from that one tough New York interview where he turned out not to know details about various policies. If Hillary were to fall under a bus, I think we'd see some pretty ferocious media coverage of Bernie and he'd look less like the easy anti-Trumpcandidate than he appears at the moment.JackW said:National - CBS/NY Times
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 44
Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
Sanders 51 .. Trump 38
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/0 -
Seconded.Richard_Nabavi said:
If it's anything like right, a bet on Leave at the current 4.7 or so is an absolute bargain.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
No way, in the Tories she has a chance of becoming Chancellor or even the PM, in UKIP she becomes an irrelevance. Priti Patel will eventually become the face of Leave and the Leave side will try to push her into becoming leader. That doesn't happen if she defects to UKIP. She becomes a pawn of Farage's ego, there is no way she would be insane enough to give up being a minister and probably looking at a Cabinet post after the referendum. It doesn't make any sense for moderate Leavers to join UKIP either MPs or ordinary members, we're better off enduring in the Conservative party so we can get one of our people into the top job.Plato_Says said:
Although unlikely. I do wonder if the likes of Priti would defect, if dumped career wise re Remain win. UKIP's problem is Farage - he's far too Marmite/big ego. I'd consider voting for them, if they'd a credible leader.MaxPB said:What's amazing is just how lucky Dave has got with UKIP and Labour's leadership being so toxic. I know a lot of Leave Tories and they feel like they just have nowhere else to go very much like I do. If UKIP had a more moderate leader who wasn't such a fool like Farage, the seepage of votes and members to UKIP would be massive and if Labour had a proper leader they would be looking to pounce on the current Tory splits over the EU.
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Having seen Stephan Shakespeare's tweet this morning, I think there's a lot of nervous people in the polling industry.CarlottaVance said:
Single methodology pollster who has carried out both online & phone poll and has a working hypothesis which might explain the differences.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
I think the pollsters are much more worried about 'getting it right' than promoting a particular methodology...0 -
Well taken catch. Bugger. He really didn't need to be going for shots like that on 86, should have got a sensible ton.FrancisUrquhart said:Hales gone...pillock.
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https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes
Scott P's link to Sam Coates twitter page re the YouGov polls didn't connect for me. Hopefully this link works.0 -
Thirded.Tissue_Price said:
Seconded.Richard_Nabavi said:
If it's anything like right, a bet on Leave at the current 4.7 or so is an absolute bargain.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
Not necessarily. It depends on your frame of reference. A small-government liberal might think that having the EU is a price worth paying if the alternative is a communist dictatorship in a major European country.Richard_Tyndall said:
Being Pro-EU is intrinsically Statist. That does not necessarily equate with right wing.
Your view would certainly be in the minority in most eastern European member states.0 -
Suggesting that yougov might not be entirely scrupulous when it comes to this sort of research.TheScreamingEagles said:
What slur?tlg86 said:
Blimey, lesser mortals would be banned for such a slur....TheScreamingEagles said:
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/0 -
It is for the reason that people have uncritically adopted the line that telephones are best based on looking the two central options of Conservative and Labour from last May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is it? Single methodology pollster says our polls are the best.Casino_Royale said:
Very interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.Tony said:Fascinating. YouGov phone poll has Leave +3
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/
The reality is that telephones were poorer at identifying the right wing bloc among the whole electorate and they all underscored UKIP last May.
The range of 'bloc' error was equivalent of a swing from left to right of between 3.6%-6.6%.
Lefties are easier to contact, and shy righties lie.0
