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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

This week being the third of the month has seen a glut of phone polls. We’ve had ICM, ORB, Ipsos MORI and last night ComRes all showing substantial REMAIN leads.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ARSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JackW said:

    ARSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Should that first comment REMAIN or will it LEAVE ..... the polling is contradictory.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    FPT. All the worlds a stage.....

    Luvvies against Brexit.....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/19/letters-actors-artists-and-writers-look-in-the-mirror-and-see-a/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    edited May 2016
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    ARSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Should that first comment REMAIN or will it LEAVE ..... the polling is contradictory.
    (ARSE) It's not been as volatile as in previous outings. Mercifully.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Roger said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    ARSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Should that first comment REMAIN or will it LEAVE ..... the polling is contradictory.
    (ARSE) It's not been as volatile as in previous outings. Mercifully.
    Actually @Roger the vast number of ARSE outings, in all their glorious configurations, show a level of stability, equanimity and accuracy that EU pollsters might only dream of.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2016
    I am quite suspicious of internet polling, but there is some utility in looking at trends within a particular company, provided they do not tinker with their methodology. Yougov online shows a steady drift to Remain in the table above, for example. ICM is as stationary as Jacks ARSE4EU. TNS just seems inconsistent.

    I cannot see Remain as value at current prices, just too many unknowns out there.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    edited May 2016
    JackW said:

    Roger said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    ARSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Should that first comment REMAIN or will it LEAVE ..... the polling is contradictory.
    (ARSE) It's not been as volatile as in previous outings. Mercifully.
    Actually @Roger the vast number of ARSE outings, in all their glorious configurations, show a level of stability, equanimity and accuracy that EU pollsters might only dream of.
    It certainly knows how to blow its own trumpet. At least it doesn't have to concern itself with the trivia of Phone Versus Online
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited May 2016
    @ Mike

    You state that "The big thing, of course, is confirmation bias. People, as we see so often on PB and I am as guilty as anyone, trust most the evidence that supports their position."

    I support Leave, but nonetheless, expect Remain to have a winning margin >10%. Although I hoped from afar that Scotland would vote Yes in 2014, and have far more respect for Nicola Sturgeon than any of the disreputable current leaders of the other Scottish political parties, I predicted No to have a winning margin >10% in the IndyRef, as turned out to be the case.

    On line polls are inherently suspect in predicting an actual result, as they potentially suffer from selection bias, and once chosen, the panel is fixed, as Yougov and others found to their cost in 2015. However, in repeat questioning of a selected panel, on line polls should be better at detecting trends.

    It is interesting to note Farage's comment about wanting a re-run if the vote for Remain is close, almost as if he is expecting a Remain result. He has been the most formidable campaigner for Leave over the years, and it is primarily thanks to his efforts that there has even been a referendum, but I suspect that he is expecting his fox to be shot on 23/6/16.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This is a good problem for a probability tree. If I can produce a tidy one, I will put it up for general consideration.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"

    Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."

    Arf.....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,199
    Is there any EU ref pollimg from before April?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    edited May 2016
    I fear Mike's answer may prove not to be that definitive after all. It is quite possible, unless we have the same convergence that we did at the general election (and surely the pollsters have learnt that lesson in spades, they got mullered for it) that some of the internet polling will prove to be fairly good as will some of the phone polling with outriders in both.

    What is clear is that a Leave win would be a bigger shock to the markets than a Tory majority was. Just.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MarqueeMark said:

    Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"

    Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."

    Arf.....

    Since the price moved between the writing of the two pieces, they aren't necessarily inconsistent.

    Though as it happens, I do disagree with Mike on this. It would be dull if everyone always agreed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    MarqueeMark said:

    Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"

    Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."

    Arf.....

    I think it's called balance. Both arguments have been well put (unlike the actual csmpaigns) and both seem equally valid. In the end there are no simple answers to this
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Justin Trudeau clearly taking lizard form:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/733541313392443392
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.

    Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"

    Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."

    Arf.....

    Since the price moved between the writing of the two pieces, they aren't necessarily inconsistent.

    Though as it happens, I do disagree with Mike on this. It would be dull if everyone always agreed.
    Value isn't a definitive thing, it is subjective, as I wrote yesterday the vast majority of people don't understand it. The price move since yesterday is so negligible its irrelevant, Meeks thinks Remain is longer than it should be, MS disagrees. Every bet is about opinion and judgement, some losing wagers are cracking bets the layer regrets taking.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Is there any EU ref pollimg from before April?

    Yes lots

    Wikipedia has poll results going back to 2010

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.

    Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.

    Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.

    What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,194
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Justin Trudeau clearly taking lizard form:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/733541313392443392

    Trudeau, eh? Clearly a Brussels place - man with a name like that.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    SandyRentool said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Justin Trudeau clearly taking lizard form:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/733541313392443392

    Trudeau, eh? Clearly a Brussels place - man with a name like that.
    He's looking like another empty suit - took him a week to visit Fort McMurray.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016
    "Justin Pierre James Trudeau PC MP (born December 25, 1971) is a Canadian politician who is the 23rd Prime Minister of Canada, and the leader of the Liberal Party. The second-youngest Canadian prime minister after Joe Clark, he is also, as the eldest son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, the first child of a previous prime minister to hold the position. "

    Hereditary Liberal Party Prime Ministers, who would have thought it?

    Altogether now.

    LLOYD GEORGE KNEW MY FATHER, FATHER KNEW LLOYD GEORGE
    LLOYD GEORGE KNEW MY FATHER, FATHER KNEW LLOYD GEORGE

    Anyway now to his views:

    "Two years later, he defended Canadian federalism at a student event at the Collège Jean-de-Brébeuf, an elite high school which he attended

    In October 2006, Trudeau criticized Quebec nationalism by describing political nationalism generally as an "old idea from the 19th century", "based on a smallness of thought" and not relevant to modern Quebec. This comment was seen as a criticism of Michael Ignatieff, then a candidate in the 2006 Liberal Party leadership election, who was promoting recognition of Quebec as a nation. Trudeau later wrote a public letter on the subject, describing the idea of Quebec nationhood as "against everything my father ever believed

    (source for Italics - wikipedia

    Federalist supports federalism, who'd a thought it?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2016
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.

    Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.

    Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.

    What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)

    Leave is not doing this , they are telling as many lies as Remain. It would be most interesting to find out what % of people are actually listening to in out arguments, or like me are so sick of the lies that they just switch off or retune.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    One for Leave campaigners - ECJ ruling yesterday said EU passports holders suspected of terrorism must have access to the evidence against them, if they're to be barred from the UK/can appeal against it.

    So we can't even deny them entry, if we think they're a threat to national security - without showing how we know...

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/terror-curbs-undermined-by-eu-ruling-8vb35p5sh
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.

    Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?

    Yougov say the lead would have been 3% on the old basis.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,194
    I see Kelly Hoppen is part of the 'luvvies for Remain' crowd. Does that mean that the ballot papers will be coloured taupe?

    Laters...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    AlastairMeeks said:

    So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.

    Next POTUS :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    SquareRoot said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.

    Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.

    Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.

    What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)

    Leave is not doing this , they are telling as many lies as remain. It would be most interesting to find out what % of people are actually listening to in out arguments, or like me are so sick of the lies that they just switch off or retune.
    Both campaigns have been completely dire so far, full of scaremongering and exaggeration. Please can we have some more honest debate along the lines of the Spectator debate that was posted the other day, with people making a positive case for their view rather than talking about war and famine?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    Roger said:

    FPT. All the worlds a stage.....

    Luvvies against Brexit.....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/19/letters-actors-artists-and-writers-look-in-the-mirror-and-see-a/

    I'm surprised it's taken them this long.

    It'll probably move a few votes into the Leave camp.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    DavidL said:

    I fear Mike's answer may prove not to be that definitive after all. It is quite possible, unless we have the same convergence that we did at the general election (and surely the pollsters have learnt that lesson in spades, they got mullered for it) that some of the internet polling will prove to be fairly good as will some of the phone polling with outriders in both.

    What is clear is that a Leave win would be a bigger shock to the markets than a Tory majority was. Just.

    if, say, Remain won 51/49, polling companies that gave a big lead to Remain would probably still be rated higher than those that gave a narrow lead to Leave, despite the latter being closer to the result.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"

    Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."

    Arf.....

    I think it's called balance. Both arguments have been well put (unlike the actual csmpaigns) and both seem equally valid. In the end there are no simple answers to this
    Bit like the question of whether we are better in or out really. Anyone who thinks the answer is straightforward has either not understood or not thought about the question.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    AlastairMeeks said:

    So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.

    What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.

    Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.

    Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?

    I think they said it would have been a 3% lead without the change, which was to do with weighting for party affiliation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    Sandpit said:

    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.
    Maybe quite a few ex-pats will take advantage of the offer to fly home to vote Leave.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    What I think will do for the "leave " case is that Leave cannot tell voters what exactly will happen if we leave. Its just a guess, and a guess isn't best for decision making. Better the devil you know will win the day IMHO.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016
    Sandpit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.

    Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.

    Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.

    What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)

    Leave is not doing this , they are telling as many lies as remain. It would be most interesting to find out what % of people are actually listening to in out arguments, or like me are so sick of the lies that they just switch off or retune.
    Both campaigns have been completely dire so far, full of scaremongering and exaggeration. Please can we have some more honest debate along the lines of the Spectator debate that was posted the other day, with people making a positive case for their view rather than talking about war and famine?
    The out case: Parliament should be sovereign and No Foreign Prince-Person-Prelate-State or Potentate Hath…..Any Bloody Right To Rule Here Except We Ourselves.

    The In Case: We are incapable of running ourselves and our politicians are numpties so we would be better off being run by a gaggle of Belgian Ticket Inspectors

    Anything else campaigned on is flannel.

    Verdict: We can change our politicians every five years, we can't change the Belgian Ticket Inpectors if we let them run the country so OUT.

    PS - the Belgian ticket inspectors are just as incompetent as our politicans and more corrupt so OUT.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Provided there is no actual pressure on passengers to vote one way or the other (and how can there be) I can't see the issue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I fear Mike's answer may prove not to be that definitive after all. It is quite possible, unless we have the same convergence that we did at the general election (and surely the pollsters have learnt that lesson in spades, they got mullered for it) that some of the internet polling will prove to be fairly good as will some of the phone polling with outriders in both.

    What is clear is that a Leave win would be a bigger shock to the markets than a Tory majority was. Just.

    if, say, Remain won 51/49, polling companies that gave a big lead to Remain would probably still be rated higher than those that gave a narrow lead to Leave, despite the latter being closer to the result.
    Yep, Mike's response is witty but probably not true.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,135
    Roger said:

    FPT. All the worlds a stage.....

    Luvvies against Brexit.....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/19/letters-actors-artists-and-writers-look-in-the-mirror-and-see-a/

    There was a fantastic letter in the times recently which went along the lines of:

    "I am grateful to Emma Thompson who has come out against X. I have found, when I am considering issues, that long and careful analysis invariably leads me to take exactly the opposite position to her and therefore that she has declared her thoughts now saves me much time in coming to the opposite conclusion..."
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Wanderer said:

    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Provided there is no actual pressure on passengers to vote one way or the other (and how can there be) I can't see the issue.
    Presumably Leave will not be driving any of their supporters to the polling station.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    SquareRoot said:

    What I think will do for the "leave " case is that Leave cannot tell voters what exactly will happen if we leave. Its just a guess, and a guess isn't best for decision making. Better the devil you know will win the day IMHO.

    Can you tell me what the EU will do over the next ten years in terms of greater centralisation, abolition of QMV and letting more eastern Europe and Asia minor states with lots of people and poverty in please?
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Wanderer said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.

    Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?

    I think they said it would have been a 3% lead without the change, which was to do with weighting for party affiliation.
    If this is sustained in future polls then it is significant in that it marks a shift to remain from previous comparable polls.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sandpit said:

    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.
    Maybe quite a few ex-pats will take advantage of the offer to fly home to vote Leave.
    Expats who can't be arsed to register for a postal ballot are unlikely to fly halfway across Europe to vote!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.

    What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.

    Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
    One might in fact dismiss what the leaders of nations say before the referendum as vapid bilge.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    What a short sighted argument.

    What will he do if after a Remain vote the likes of Johnson and Gove, or Haider and Wilders get control of the EU?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. All the worlds a stage.....

    Luvvies against Brexit.....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/19/letters-actors-artists-and-writers-look-in-the-mirror-and-see-a/

    I'm surprised it's taken them this long.

    It'll probably move a few votes into the Leave camp.
    Gillian on Sky just enjoyed reading out a stream of rude texts/emails to Tessa Jowell - viewers highly irritated by luvvies. Tessa first accused her of being selective, then babbled an octave above normal. Not her finest intv.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Mortimer said:



    On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.

    Because there is a fine line between observing, opinionating and prosletysing and it is frequently crossed by political campaigners?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    merger of bookmakers being looked at.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36339782
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    Paul Mason has some bizarre views. Read the guardian review of his book on 'post-capitalism'.

    He is probably more political than most politicians.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.

    What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.

    Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
    One might in fact dismiss what the leaders of nations say before the referendum as vapid bilge.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.
    I refer you to my thread last Friday. Leave seem incapable of receiving an unwelcome intervention from an outsider without impugning the intervener's good faith.

    The idea that they may simply be saying what they think is discounted as too unlikely to be worth contemplation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    Plato_Says said:

    One for Leave campaigners - ECJ ruling yesterday said EU passports holders suspected of terrorism must have access to the evidence against them, if they're to be barred from the UK/can appeal against it.

    So we can't even deny them entry, if we think they're a threat to national security - without showing how we know...

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/terror-curbs-undermined-by-eu-ruling-8vb35p5sh

    That may be slightly overstated (I don't have access to the full article). There is a summary of the decision here: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_CJE-13-70_en.htm

    Basically, the UK or any other Member State, have to give a reason for the refusal. They can claim national security on the information and the Court (probably SIAC in our case) can determine whether that is properly done. If so fine. If not and the State refuses to disclose then the court must make the decision on the public information alone.

    The most worrying bit is "there is no presumption that the reasons invoked by a national authority in order to refuse disclosure of those grounds exist and are valid." It may be that they are simply emphasising that it is for the Court to make the decision, not the Minister, but that will be hooked on to by defence counsel.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    dr_spyn said:

    merger of bookmakers being looked at.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36339782

    That's not going to happen. They're desperate to open more shops and there's no way they'll want to close them to get the merger through. All about the machines.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.

    Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?

    They think UKIP are over-represented because UKIP underperformed their polls this month.

    Last May UKIP overperformed their polls.

    All these headline numbers are after they, and all polling companies, have taken a set of raw data and applied their assumption of the month to them.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Mortimer said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.

    What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.

    Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
    One might in fact dismiss what the leaders of nations say before the referendum as vapid bilge.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.
    I refer you to my thread last Friday. Leave seem incapable of receiving an unwelcome intervention from an outsider without impugning the intervener's good faith.

    The idea that they may simply be saying what they think is discounted as too unlikely to be worth contemplation.
    Game theory.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Is VoteLeave staffed by complete idiots?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sandpit said:

    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.
    Maybe quite a few ex-pats will take advantage of the offer to fly home to vote Leave.
    The expats that are voting Leave already have postal votes, or maybe that's just me!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pong said:

    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Is VoteLeave staffed by complete idiots?
    It does seem to be an illustration of Conquest's Third Law at times.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    Paul Mason has some bizarre views. Read the guardian review of his book on 'post-capitalism'.

    He is probably more political than most politicians.
    The tweets about his QT remarks were a mix of WTF and WTF. I'm hoping someone will clip the most outrageous bits.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Sandpit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.

    Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.

    Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.

    What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)

    Leave is not doing this , they are telling as many lies as remain. It would be most interesting to find out what % of people are actually listening to in out arguments, or like me are so sick of the lies that they just switch off or retune.
    Both campaigns have been completely dire so far, full of scaremongering and exaggeration. Please can we have some more honest debate along the lines of the Spectator debate that was posted the other day, with people making a positive case for their view rather than talking about war and famine?
    The out case: Parliament should be sovereign and No Foreign Prince-Person-Prelate-State or Potentate Hath…..Any Bloody Right To Rule Here Except We Ourselves.

    The In Case: We are incapable of running ourselves and our politicians are numpties so we would be better off being run by a gaggle of Belgian Ticket Inspectors

    Anything else campaigned on is flannel.

    Verdict: We can change our politicians every five years, we can't change the Belgian Ticket Inpectors if we let them run the country so OUT.

    PS - the Belgian ticket inspectors are just as incompetent as our politicans and more corrupt so OUT.
    The In case is that a glass half full is better than no glass at all. It's better to be half baked than no-baked. It's not an inspiring message but it will probably carry the day unless the Out people can convince people that leaving the EU is an idea that is even half baked.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited May 2016
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    The idea of a Gove / Johnson govt is a massive disincentive to vote Leave. A dreadful prospect.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    Voting Remain is voting Labour?


  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Evaporating leads, disintegrating party. Clinton has a few problems...

    http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/05/19/report.-bernie-sanders-full-metal-jacket-burn-mode/
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/18/bernie-sanders-backers-have-nothing-to-lose-from-d/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pong said:

    Plato_Says said:

    RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w

    Is VoteLeave staffed by complete idiots?
    It does seem to be an illustration of Conquest's Third Law at times.
    Ha! Yes
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Mortimer said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.

    What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.

    Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
    One might in fact dismiss what the leaders of nations say before the referendum as vapid bilge.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.
    I refer you to my thread last Friday. Leave seem incapable of receiving an unwelcome intervention from an outsider without impugning the intervener's good faith.

    The idea that they may simply be saying what they think is discounted as too unlikely to be worth contemplation.
    No, some people on an Internet forum might do that.

    But they do not make Leave, Alastair, and you know it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic:

    https://twitter.com/ncpoliticseu/status/733414423264530432
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    It presents the EU as an obstacle to Tory government. A blocking mechanism. An over-riding authority.

    Remain = Tories against Tory government.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    daodao said:

    @ Mike

    You state that "The big thing, of course, is confirmation bias. People, as we see so often on PB and I am as guilty as anyone, trust most the evidence that supports their position."

    I support Leave, but nonetheless, expect Remain to have a winning margin >10%. Although I hoped from afar that Scotland would vote Yes in 2014, and have far more respect for Nicola Sturgeon than any of the disreputable current leaders of the other Scottish political parties, I predicted No to have a winning margin >10% in the IndyRef, as turned out to be the case.

    On line polls are inherently suspect in predicting an actual result, as they potentially suffer from selection bias, and once chosen, the panel is fixed, as Yougov and others found to their cost in 2015. However, in repeat questioning of a selected panel, on line polls should be better at detecting trends.

    It is interesting to note Farage's comment about wanting a re-run if the vote for Remain is close, almost as if he is expecting a Remain result. He has been the most formidable campaigner for Leave over the years, and it is primarily thanks to his efforts that there has even been a referendum, but I suspect that he is expecting his fox to be shot on 23/6/16.

    It's like that scene in Citizen Kane where two newspaper front pages are shown: "Kane elected" and "fraud at poll". We can accept losing elections because we know there'll be another one in five years or less. Not so for referenda - we're all a bit like Kane with them.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,700
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    What a short sighted argument.

    What will he do if after a Remain vote the likes of Johnson and Gove, or Haider and Wilders get control of the EU?
    I thought the whole point of Brexit was frustration that the likes of Johnson or Gove couldn't "get control" of the EU and steer it in a more sceptical direction? If changing the course of the EU is now possible, why wouldn't a Eurosceptic opt to stay and do this.

    You may regard Paul Mason's opinions as somewhat bizarre (though the specific point on how the Tory party might use freedom from the EU does drive a decent amount of Labour remain sentiment), but not sure you need to resort to such bizarre lines of argument to rebut them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    chestnut said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    It presents the EU as an obstacle to Tory government. A blocking mechanism. An over-riding authority.

    Remain = Tories against Tory government.
    Paul Mason isn't a Tory. Why should he want to enable a still more rightwing Tory government?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    A friend of mine (a strong Corbynite) told me last night that he's decided to abstain on the EU Referendum. He wants to vote Remain but can't bring himself to vote for Cameron under any circumstances.

    Anecdote, but I suspect he's not the only one.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    RodCrosby said:

    Evaporating leads, disintegrating party. Clinton has a few problems...

    http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/05/19/report.-bernie-sanders-full-metal-jacket-burn-mode/
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/18/bernie-sanders-backers-have-nothing-to-lose-from-d/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

    This is enormous fun - 2016 is topping 2015 for me. And I was convinced Corbyn winning was a total highpoint.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Good morning, everyone.

    How accurate were the polls in the Scottish referendum?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    I do hope that the luvvvie letter is dismissed by someone who is popular amongst the groups most likely to vote Leave - someone like Ian Botham - as people used to the limelight who don't have enough faith in the public they want to watch their shows making a good decision.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    Leavers tend to feel they have a monopoly of patriotism. They have a far deeper passion for the issue than Remainders do. If there's no value bet on the result itself, how about trying to start a book on a Leaver trying to kill a Remainder with a view to pleading "justifiable homicide" in court?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    How accurate were the polls in the Scottish referendum?

    Pretty good apart from "that poll" Had the winner nailed from the start.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    CD13 said:

    A friend of mine (a strong Corbynite) told me last night that he's decided to abstain on the EU Referendum. He wants to vote Remain but can't bring himself to vote for Cameron under any circumstances.

    Anecdote, but I suspect he's not the only one.

    I do hope so :smiley: Or as some others are doing, voting Leave to bring Cameron down.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    Leavers tend to feel they have a monopoly of patriotism. They have a far deeper passion for the issue than Remainders do. If there's no value bet on the result itself, how about trying to start a book on a Leaver trying to kill a Remainder with a view to pleading "justifiable homicide" in court?
    Where do you get this guff?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Jonathan said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    The idea of a Gove / Johnson govt is a massive disincentive to vote Leave. A dreadful prospect.

    Yep - those thinking Labour voters will vote Leave to kick out Dave and George forget that most Labour voters believe - correctly - that Labour will lose in 2020. If the current PM and Chancellor go, all it will mean is a further Tory move to the right. Why facilitate that? And wo in their right mind would want Boris anywhere near power? The referendum campaign has proved just how unsuited to it he is.

  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    CD13 said:

    A friend of mine (a strong Corbynite) told me last night that he's decided to abstain on the EU Referendum. He wants to vote Remain but can't bring himself to vote for Cameron under any circumstances.

    Anecdote, but I suspect he's not the only one.

    Does he know how tory activists feel about Cammo?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    I see that ComRes had current Tories splitting evenly for Leave/Remain, and Tory voters from 2015 favouring Leave. That does suggest that Ipsos MORI's finding that Tories favoured Remain by 60/34 is an outlier.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    edited May 2016
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    The principle he objected to was that we would have an ultra right Prime Minister (as he sees it) without ever having voted for one.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Mortimer said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    Leavers tend to feel they have a monopoly of patriotism. They have a far deeper passion for the issue than Remainders do. If there's no value bet on the result itself, how about trying to start a book on a Leaver trying to kill a Remainder with a view to pleading "justifiable homicide" in court?
    Where do you get this guff?
    Wherever it is, it's the right place :)

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2016
    AlastairMeeks said:

    chestnut said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    It presents the EU as an obstacle to Tory government. A blocking mechanism. An over-riding authority.

    Remain = Tories against Tory government.
    Paul Mason isn't a Tory. Why should he want to enable a still more rightwing Tory government?
    for the same reason "Conservatives" in France voted for Hollande to keep the Front Nationale out ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pong said:

    Is VoteLeave staffed by complete idiots?

    Would you kindly explain the inexplicable "?" .... :smile:

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

    44 minutes 44 seconds
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    The idea of a Gove / Johnson govt is a massive disincentive to vote Leave. A dreadful prospect.

    Yep - those thinking Labour voters will vote Leave to kick out Dave and George forget that most Labour voters believe - correctly - that Labour will lose in 2020. If the current PM and Chancellor go, all it will mean is a further Tory move to the right. Why facilitate that? And wo in their right mind would want Boris anywhere near power? The referendum campaign has proved just how unsuited to it he is.

    To be fair SO, no one has covered themselves in glory on this.

    A few have remained quiet - but those who have got involved, including our PM, have revealed many faults.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    Mortimer said:

    I do hope that the luvvvie letter is dismissed by someone who is popular amongst the groups most likely to vote Leave - someone like Ian Botham - as people used to the limelight who don't have enough faith in the public they want to watch their shows making a good decision.

    Apparently we also have Liz Hurley. TBH, I'm just glad the worst self-righteous luvvies are getting told to bugger off. The Guardian's frontpage is so awkward - a whole slab of celeb mugshots, next to a giant headline about child sex abuse.

    If that was the Mail, I could understand the piss-taking...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733404605292249089
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    The idea of a Gove / Johnson govt is a massive disincentive to vote Leave. A dreadful prospect.

    Yep - those thinking Labour voters will vote Leave to kick out Dave and George forget that most Labour voters believe - correctly - that Labour will lose in 2020. If the current PM and Chancellor go, all it will mean is a further Tory move to the right. Why facilitate that? And wo in their right mind would want Boris anywhere near power? The referendum campaign has proved just how unsuited to it he is.

    My enemy's enemy is my friend is enough for many voters. Right wingers dislike the EU so left wingers support it. In the late 1970's and early 1980's, the positions were reversed.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2016
    Sean_F said:

    I see that ComRes had current Tories splitting evenly for Leave/Remain, and Tory voters from 2015 favouring Leave. That does suggest that Ipsos MORI's finding that Tories favoured Remain by 60/34 is an outlier.

    Both samples fall into the usual telephone failing of finding an EICIPM sample. After that it's a competition to see who performs the most accurate adjustments and applies the most accurate weightings.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic:

    https://twitter.com/ncpoliticseu/status/733414423264530432

    Pamela Anderson in Baywatch?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    RodCrosby said:

    Evaporating leads, disintegrating party. Clinton has a few problems...

    http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/05/19/report.-bernie-sanders-full-metal-jacket-burn-mode/
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/18/bernie-sanders-backers-have-nothing-to-lose-from-d/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

    The 13 minutes of Hillary lying linked to here is quite funny: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3599306/13-minute-video-Hillary-Clinton-lying-goes-viral-YouTube-wizard-says-Don-t-worry-Trump-next.html?ITO=1490

    It shows the problems of a long career.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    My default position is always that when I support something it will fail. Over the years it has stood me in very good stead! I never, ever bet on something happening that I want to happen.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    How accurate were the polls in the Scottish referendum?

    If you add the don't knows to No then the eve of election polls all got it spot on
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    Roger said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

    It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).
    The principle he objected to was that we would have an ultra right Prime Minister (as he sees it) without ever having voted for one.
    Who are you suggesting is ultra right?

    Gove, who freed schools from government control and wants to introduce the most sweeping reform prisons to prisons ever suggested.

    Or Johnson, who was the first Tory in power after TONY Blair, in that liberal bastion city of London.

    If anything, Gove and Johnson are far more liberal than Cameron and Osborne.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tennessee - PRSA/Vanderbilt

    Clinton 35 .. Trump 44

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/VanderbiltTNSpring2016_FinalTopline0512.pdf
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