politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different
This week being the third of the month has seen a glut of phone polls. We’ve had ICM, ORB, Ipsos MORI and last night ComRes all showing substantial REMAIN leads.
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ARSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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FPT. All the worlds a stage.....
Luvvies against Brexit.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/19/letters-actors-artists-and-writers-look-in-the-mirror-and-see-a/0 -
I am quite suspicious of internet polling, but there is some utility in looking at trends within a particular company, provided they do not tinker with their methodology. Yougov online shows a steady drift to Remain in the table above, for example. ICM is as stationary as Jacks ARSE4EU. TNS just seems inconsistent.
I cannot see Remain as value at current prices, just too many unknowns out there.
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It certainly knows how to blow its own trumpet. At least it doesn't have to concern itself with the trivia of Phone Versus OnlineJackW said:0 -
@ Mike
You state that "The big thing, of course, is confirmation bias. People, as we see so often on PB and I am as guilty as anyone, trust most the evidence that supports their position."
I support Leave, but nonetheless, expect Remain to have a winning margin >10%. Although I hoped from afar that Scotland would vote Yes in 2014, and have far more respect for Nicola Sturgeon than any of the disreputable current leaders of the other Scottish political parties, I predicted No to have a winning margin >10% in the IndyRef, as turned out to be the case.
On line polls are inherently suspect in predicting an actual result, as they potentially suffer from selection bias, and once chosen, the panel is fixed, as Yougov and others found to their cost in 2015. However, in repeat questioning of a selected panel, on line polls should be better at detecting trends.
It is interesting to note Farage's comment about wanting a re-run if the vote for Remain is close, almost as if he is expecting a Remain result. He has been the most formidable campaigner for Leave over the years, and it is primarily thanks to his efforts that there has even been a referendum, but I suspect that he is expecting his fox to be shot on 23/6/16.0 -
This is a good problem for a probability tree. If I can produce a tidy one, I will put it up for general consideration.0
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Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"
Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."
Arf.....0 -
Is there any EU ref pollimg from before April?0
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I fear Mike's answer may prove not to be that definitive after all. It is quite possible, unless we have the same convergence that we did at the general election (and surely the pollsters have learnt that lesson in spades, they got mullered for it) that some of the internet polling will prove to be fairly good as will some of the phone polling with outriders in both.
What is clear is that a Leave win would be a bigger shock to the markets than a Tory majority was. Just.0 -
Since the price moved between the writing of the two pieces, they aren't necessarily inconsistent.MarqueeMark said:Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"
Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."
Arf.....
Though as it happens, I do disagree with Mike on this. It would be dull if everyone always agreed.0 -
I think it's called balance. Both arguments have been well put (unlike the actual csmpaigns) and both seem equally valid. In the end there are no simple answers to thisMarqueeMark said:Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"
Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."
Arf.....
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Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.
Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?0 -
Value isn't a definitive thing, it is subjective, as I wrote yesterday the vast majority of people don't understand it. The price move since yesterday is so negligible its irrelevant, Meeks thinks Remain is longer than it should be, MS disagrees. Every bet is about opinion and judgement, some losing wagers are cracking bets the layer regrets taking.AlastairMeeks said:
Since the price moved between the writing of the two pieces, they aren't necessarily inconsistent.MarqueeMark said:Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"
Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."
Arf.....
Though as it happens, I do disagree with Mike on this. It would be dull if everyone always agreed.0 -
Yes lotsLuckyguy1983 said:Is there any EU ref pollimg from before April?
Wikipedia has poll results going back to 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum0 -
In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.
Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.
Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.
What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)0 -
Trudeau, eh? Clearly a Brussels place - man with a name like that.AlastairMeeks said:Justin Trudeau clearly taking lizard form:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/7335413133924433920 -
RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w0
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He's looking like another empty suit - took him a week to visit Fort McMurray.SandyRentool said:
Trudeau, eh? Clearly a Brussels place - man with a name like that.AlastairMeeks said:Justin Trudeau clearly taking lizard form:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/7335413133924433920 -
"Justin Pierre James Trudeau PC MP (born December 25, 1971) is a Canadian politician who is the 23rd Prime Minister of Canada, and the leader of the Liberal Party. The second-youngest Canadian prime minister after Joe Clark, he is also, as the eldest son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, the first child of a previous prime minister to hold the position. "
Hereditary Liberal Party Prime Ministers, who would have thought it?
Altogether now.
LLOYD GEORGE KNEW MY FATHER, FATHER KNEW LLOYD GEORGE
LLOYD GEORGE KNEW MY FATHER, FATHER KNEW LLOYD GEORGE
Anyway now to his views:
"Two years later, he defended Canadian federalism at a student event at the Collège Jean-de-Brébeuf, an elite high school which he attended
In October 2006, Trudeau criticized Quebec nationalism by describing political nationalism generally as an "old idea from the 19th century", "based on a smallness of thought" and not relevant to modern Quebec. This comment was seen as a criticism of Michael Ignatieff, then a candidate in the 2006 Liberal Party leadership election, who was promoting recognition of Quebec as a nation. Trudeau later wrote a public letter on the subject, describing the idea of Quebec nationhood as "against everything my father ever believed
(source for Italics - wikipedia
Federalist supports federalism, who'd a thought it?
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Leave is not doing this , they are telling as many lies as Remain. It would be most interesting to find out what % of people are actually listening to in out arguments, or like me are so sick of the lies that they just switch off or retune.Paul_Bedfordshire said:In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.
Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.
Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.
What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)0 -
Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.0
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One for Leave campaigners - ECJ ruling yesterday said EU passports holders suspected of terrorism must have access to the evidence against them, if they're to be barred from the UK/can appeal against it.
So we can't even deny them entry, if we think they're a threat to national security - without showing how we know...
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/terror-curbs-undermined-by-eu-ruling-8vb35p5sh0 -
Yougov say the lead would have been 3% on the old basis.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.
Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?0 -
I see Kelly Hoppen is part of the 'luvvies for Remain' crowd. Does that mean that the ballot papers will be coloured taupe?
Laters...0 -
Next POTUSAlastairMeeks said:So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.
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Both campaigns have been completely dire so far, full of scaremongering and exaggeration. Please can we have some more honest debate along the lines of the Spectator debate that was posted the other day, with people making a positive case for their view rather than talking about war and famine?SquareRoot said:
Leave is not doing this , they are telling as many lies as remain. It would be most interesting to find out what % of people are actually listening to in out arguments, or like me are so sick of the lies that they just switch off or retune.Paul_Bedfordshire said:In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.
Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.
Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.
What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)0 -
I'm surprised it's taken them this long.Roger said:FPT. All the worlds a stage.....
Luvvies against Brexit.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/19/letters-actors-artists-and-writers-look-in-the-mirror-and-see-a/
It'll probably move a few votes into the Leave camp.0 -
if, say, Remain won 51/49, polling companies that gave a big lead to Remain would probably still be rated higher than those that gave a narrow lead to Leave, despite the latter being closer to the result.DavidL said:I fear Mike's answer may prove not to be that definitive after all. It is quite possible, unless we have the same convergence that we did at the general election (and surely the pollsters have learnt that lesson in spades, they got mullered for it) that some of the internet polling will prove to be fairly good as will some of the phone polling with outriders in both.
What is clear is that a Leave win would be a bigger shock to the markets than a Tory majority was. Just.0 -
Bit like the question of whether we are better in or out really. Anyone who thinks the answer is straightforward has either not understood or not thought about the question.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it's called balance. Both arguments have been well put (unlike the actual csmpaigns) and both seem equally valid. In the end there are no simple answers to thisMarqueeMark said:Yesterday's thread- Alastair Meeks "Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet"
Today's thread - OGH - "I don’t regard the REMAIN price as value."
Arf.....0 -
What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.AlastairMeeks said:So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.
Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.0 -
I think they said it would have been a 3% lead without the change, which was to do with weighting for party affiliation.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.
Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?0 -
Maybe quite a few ex-pats will take advantage of the offer to fly home to vote Leave.Sandpit said:
Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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What I think will do for the "leave " case is that Leave cannot tell voters what exactly will happen if we leave. Its just a guess, and a guess isn't best for decision making. Better the devil you know will win the day IMHO.0
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The out case: Parliament should be sovereign and No Foreign Prince-Person-Prelate-State or Potentate Hath…..Any Bloody Right To Rule Here Except We Ourselves.Sandpit said:
Both campaigns have been completely dire so far, full of scaremongering and exaggeration. Please can we have some more honest debate along the lines of the Spectator debate that was posted the other day, with people making a positive case for their view rather than talking about war and famine?SquareRoot said:
Leave is not doing this , they are telling as many lies as remain. It would be most interesting to find out what % of people are actually listening to in out arguments, or like me are so sick of the lies that they just switch off or retune.Paul_Bedfordshire said:In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.
Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.
Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.
What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)
The In Case: We are incapable of running ourselves and our politicians are numpties so we would be better off being run by a gaggle of Belgian Ticket Inspectors
Anything else campaigned on is flannel.
Verdict: We can change our politicians every five years, we can't change the Belgian Ticket Inpectors if we let them run the country so OUT.
PS - the Belgian ticket inspectors are just as incompetent as our politicans and more corrupt so OUT.0 -
Provided there is no actual pressure on passengers to vote one way or the other (and how can there be) I can't see the issue.Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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Yep, Mike's response is witty but probably not true.Sean_F said:
if, say, Remain won 51/49, polling companies that gave a big lead to Remain would probably still be rated higher than those that gave a narrow lead to Leave, despite the latter being closer to the result.DavidL said:I fear Mike's answer may prove not to be that definitive after all. It is quite possible, unless we have the same convergence that we did at the general election (and surely the pollsters have learnt that lesson in spades, they got mullered for it) that some of the internet polling will prove to be fairly good as will some of the phone polling with outriders in both.
What is clear is that a Leave win would be a bigger shock to the markets than a Tory majority was. Just.0 -
There was a fantastic letter in the times recently which went along the lines of:Roger said:FPT. All the worlds a stage.....
Luvvies against Brexit.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/19/letters-actors-artists-and-writers-look-in-the-mirror-and-see-a/
"I am grateful to Emma Thompson who has come out against X. I have found, when I am considering issues, that long and careful analysis invariably leads me to take exactly the opposite position to her and therefore that she has declared her thoughts now saves me much time in coming to the opposite conclusion..."0 -
Presumably Leave will not be driving any of their supporters to the polling station.Wanderer said:
Provided there is no actual pressure on passengers to vote one way or the other (and how can there be) I can't see the issue.Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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Can you tell me what the EU will do over the next ten years in terms of greater centralisation, abolition of QMV and letting more eastern Europe and Asia minor states with lots of people and poverty in please?SquareRoot said:What I think will do for the "leave " case is that Leave cannot tell voters what exactly will happen if we leave. Its just a guess, and a guess isn't best for decision making. Better the devil you know will win the day IMHO.
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If this is sustained in future polls then it is significant in that it marks a shift to remain from previous comparable polls.Wanderer said:
I think they said it would have been a 3% lead without the change, which was to do with weighting for party affiliation.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.
Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?
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Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.0
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Expats who can't be arsed to register for a postal ballot are unlikely to fly halfway across Europe to vote!Casino_Royale said:
Maybe quite a few ex-pats will take advantage of the offer to fly home to vote Leave.Sandpit said:
Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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One might in fact dismiss what the leaders of nations say before the referendum as vapid bilge.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.AlastairMeeks said:So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.
Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.0 -
What a short sighted argument.Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
What will he do if after a Remain vote the likes of Johnson and Gove, or Haider and Wilders get control of the EU?0 -
Gillian on Sky just enjoyed reading out a stream of rude texts/emails to Tessa Jowell - viewers highly irritated by luvvies. Tessa first accused her of being selective, then babbled an octave above normal. Not her finest intv.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised it's taken them this long.Roger said:FPT. All the worlds a stage.....
Luvvies against Brexit.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/19/letters-actors-artists-and-writers-look-in-the-mirror-and-see-a/
It'll probably move a few votes into the Leave camp.0 -
Because there is a fine line between observing, opinionating and prosletysing and it is frequently crossed by political campaigners?Mortimer said:
On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.
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Paul Mason has some bizarre views. Read the guardian review of his book on 'post-capitalism'.Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
He is probably more political than most politicians.0 -
I refer you to my thread last Friday. Leave seem incapable of receiving an unwelcome intervention from an outsider without impugning the intervener's good faith.Mortimer said:
One might in fact dismiss what the leaders of nations say before the referendum as vapid bilge.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.AlastairMeeks said:So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.
Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.
The idea that they may simply be saying what they think is discounted as too unlikely to be worth contemplation.0 -
That may be slightly overstated (I don't have access to the full article). There is a summary of the decision here: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_CJE-13-70_en.htmPlato_Says said:One for Leave campaigners - ECJ ruling yesterday said EU passports holders suspected of terrorism must have access to the evidence against them, if they're to be barred from the UK/can appeal against it.
So we can't even deny them entry, if we think they're a threat to national security - without showing how we know...
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/terror-curbs-undermined-by-eu-ruling-8vb35p5sh
Basically, the UK or any other Member State, have to give a reason for the refusal. They can claim national security on the information and the Court (probably SIAC in our case) can determine whether that is properly done. If so fine. If not and the State refuses to disclose then the court must make the decision on the public information alone.
The most worrying bit is "there is no presumption that the reasons invoked by a national authority in order to refuse disclosure of those grounds exist and are valid." It may be that they are simply emphasising that it is for the Court to make the decision, not the Minister, but that will be hooked on to by defence counsel.0 -
That's not going to happen. They're desperate to open more shops and there's no way they'll want to close them to get the merger through. All about the machines.dr_spyn said:merger of bookmakers being looked at.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-363397820 -
They think UKIP are over-represented because UKIP underperformed their polls this month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Serious Pollster Question: Does anyone know what the change in Methodology was that led to the recent 4% lead in Yougovs latest poll and did Yougov publish what the figures were on the old methodology.
Otherwise we are trying to compare apples and pears?
Last May UKIP overperformed their polls.
All these headline numbers are after they, and all polling companies, have taken a set of raw data and applied their assumption of the month to them.
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Game theory.AlastairMeeks said:
I refer you to my thread last Friday. Leave seem incapable of receiving an unwelcome intervention from an outsider without impugning the intervener's good faith.Mortimer said:
One might in fact dismiss what the leaders of nations say before the referendum as vapid bilge.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.AlastairMeeks said:So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.
Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.
The idea that they may simply be saying what they think is discounted as too unlikely to be worth contemplation.0 -
Is VoteLeave staffed by complete idiots?Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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The expats that are voting Leave already have postal votes, or maybe that's just me!Casino_Royale said:
Maybe quite a few ex-pats will take advantage of the offer to fly home to vote Leave.Sandpit said:
Morning. Yes that did look like it was one stunt too far for Ryanair, someone could be in hot water for tying a discount on a service to a vote for a specific outcome.Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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It does seem to be an illustration of Conquest's Third Law at times.Pong said:
Is VoteLeave staffed by complete idiots?Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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The tweets about his QT remarks were a mix of WTF and WTF. I'm hoping someone will clip the most outrageous bits.Mortimer said:
Paul Mason has some bizarre views. Read the guardian review of his book on 'post-capitalism'.Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
He is probably more political than most politicians.0 -
The In case is that a glass half full is better than no glass at all. It's better to be half baked than no-baked. It's not an inspiring message but it will probably carry the day unless the Out people can convince people that leaving the EU is an idea that is even half baked.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The out case: Parliament should be sovereign and No Foreign Prince-Person-Prelate-State or Potentate Hath…..Any Bloody Right To Rule Here Except We Ourselves.Sandpit said:
Both campaigns have been completely dire so far, full of scaremongering and exaggeration. Please can we have some more honest debate along the lines of the Spectator debate that was posted the other day, with people making a positive case for their view rather than talking about war and famine?SquareRoot said:
Leave is not doing this , they are telling as many lies as remain. It would be most interesting to find out what % of people are actually listening to in out arguments, or like me are so sick of the lies that they just switch off or retune.Paul_Bedfordshire said:In terms of what Leave should be doing my thoughts are this.
Remain told a pack of lies about the nature and got away with it in 1975 because there was no social media and only the pro Soviet Left and a few eccentrics supported leave.
Leaves task this time is to stop Remain doing the same. Call Remains lies out and explain what the EU is really about.
What would happen after Brexit is for the government to explain not Leave, because it is the government not leave who will do the negotiating. (one reason Wilson was so much wiser than Cameron in staying largely neutral in 1975)
The In Case: We are incapable of running ourselves and our politicians are numpties so we would be better off being run by a gaggle of Belgian Ticket Inspectors
Anything else campaigned on is flannel.
Verdict: We can change our politicians every five years, we can't change the Belgian Ticket Inpectors if we let them run the country so OUT.
PS - the Belgian ticket inspectors are just as incompetent as our politicans and more corrupt so OUT.0 -
The idea of a Gove / Johnson govt is a massive disincentive to vote Leave. A dreadful prospect.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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Voting Remain is voting Labour?Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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Evaporating leads, disintegrating party. Clinton has a few problems...
http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/05/19/report.-bernie-sanders-full-metal-jacket-burn-mode/
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/18/bernie-sanders-backers-have-nothing-to-lose-from-d/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS0 -
Ha! YesAlastairMeeks said:
It does seem to be an illustration of Conquest's Third Law at times.Pong said:
Is VoteLeave staffed by complete idiots?Plato_Says said:RyanAir reported to police over Fly Home To Vote Remain offer - breaking bribery/election law on inducements. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ryanairs-seat-sale-reported-to-police-n25w8qz6w
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No, some people on an Internet forum might do that.AlastairMeeks said:
I refer you to my thread last Friday. Leave seem incapable of receiving an unwelcome intervention from an outsider without impugning the intervener's good faith.Mortimer said:
One might in fact dismiss what the leaders of nations say before the referendum as vapid bilge.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
What politicians say before an election and what politicians do after an election are not necessarily the same thing.AlastairMeeks said:So Canada gets added to the list of countries who Leave are not going to be fwiends wiv. The list of fwiendly countries shrinks by the day.
Expecting a Liberal Prime Minister to say anything else before the referendum would be a little naive.
On a more serious note, I'm not sure why Alastair feels the need to suggest some sort of infantilism in the Leave campaign. We have perfect demonstration of infantilism from all sides; but also of seriousness on all sides.
The idea that they may simply be saying what they think is discounted as too unlikely to be worth contemplation.
But they do not make Leave, Alastair, and you know it.0 -
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It presents the EU as an obstacle to Tory government. A blocking mechanism. An over-riding authority.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
Remain = Tories against Tory government.
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It's like that scene in Citizen Kane where two newspaper front pages are shown: "Kane elected" and "fraud at poll". We can accept losing elections because we know there'll be another one in five years or less. Not so for referenda - we're all a bit like Kane with them.daodao said:@ Mike
You state that "The big thing, of course, is confirmation bias. People, as we see so often on PB and I am as guilty as anyone, trust most the evidence that supports their position."
I support Leave, but nonetheless, expect Remain to have a winning margin >10%. Although I hoped from afar that Scotland would vote Yes in 2014, and have far more respect for Nicola Sturgeon than any of the disreputable current leaders of the other Scottish political parties, I predicted No to have a winning margin >10% in the IndyRef, as turned out to be the case.
On line polls are inherently suspect in predicting an actual result, as they potentially suffer from selection bias, and once chosen, the panel is fixed, as Yougov and others found to their cost in 2015. However, in repeat questioning of a selected panel, on line polls should be better at detecting trends.
It is interesting to note Farage's comment about wanting a re-run if the vote for Remain is close, almost as if he is expecting a Remain result. He has been the most formidable campaigner for Leave over the years, and it is primarily thanks to his efforts that there has even been a referendum, but I suspect that he is expecting his fox to be shot on 23/6/16.
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I thought the whole point of Brexit was frustration that the likes of Johnson or Gove couldn't "get control" of the EU and steer it in a more sceptical direction? If changing the course of the EU is now possible, why wouldn't a Eurosceptic opt to stay and do this.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
What a short sighted argument.Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
What will he do if after a Remain vote the likes of Johnson and Gove, or Haider and Wilders get control of the EU?
You may regard Paul Mason's opinions as somewhat bizarre (though the specific point on how the Tory party might use freedom from the EU does drive a decent amount of Labour remain sentiment), but not sure you need to resort to such bizarre lines of argument to rebut them.0 -
Paul Mason isn't a Tory. Why should he want to enable a still more rightwing Tory government?chestnut said:
It presents the EU as an obstacle to Tory government. A blocking mechanism. An over-riding authority.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
Remain = Tories against Tory government.0 -
A friend of mine (a strong Corbynite) told me last night that he's decided to abstain on the EU Referendum. He wants to vote Remain but can't bring himself to vote for Cameron under any circumstances.
Anecdote, but I suspect he's not the only one.0 -
This is enormous fun - 2016 is topping 2015 for me. And I was convinced Corbyn winning was a total highpoint.RodCrosby said:Evaporating leads, disintegrating party. Clinton has a few problems...
http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/05/19/report.-bernie-sanders-full-metal-jacket-burn-mode/
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/18/bernie-sanders-backers-have-nothing-to-lose-from-d/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS0 -
Good morning, everyone.
How accurate were the polls in the Scottish referendum?0 -
I do hope that the luvvvie letter is dismissed by someone who is popular amongst the groups most likely to vote Leave - someone like Ian Botham - as people used to the limelight who don't have enough faith in the public they want to watch their shows making a good decision.0
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Leavers tend to feel they have a monopoly of patriotism. They have a far deeper passion for the issue than Remainders do. If there's no value bet on the result itself, how about trying to start a book on a Leaver trying to kill a Remainder with a view to pleading "justifiable homicide" in court?AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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Pretty good apart from "that poll" Had the winner nailed from the start.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
How accurate were the polls in the Scottish referendum?0 -
I do hope soCD13 said:A friend of mine (a strong Corbynite) told me last night that he's decided to abstain on the EU Referendum. He wants to vote Remain but can't bring himself to vote for Cameron under any circumstances.
Anecdote, but I suspect he's not the only one.
Or as some others are doing, voting Leave to bring Cameron down. 0 -
Where do you get this guff?Innocent_Abroad said:
Leavers tend to feel they have a monopoly of patriotism. They have a far deeper passion for the issue than Remainders do. If there's no value bet on the result itself, how about trying to start a book on a Leaver trying to kill a Remainder with a view to pleading "justifiable homicide" in court?AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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Yep - those thinking Labour voters will vote Leave to kick out Dave and George forget that most Labour voters believe - correctly - that Labour will lose in 2020. If the current PM and Chancellor go, all it will mean is a further Tory move to the right. Why facilitate that? And wo in their right mind would want Boris anywhere near power? The referendum campaign has proved just how unsuited to it he is.Jonathan said:
The idea of a Gove / Johnson govt is a massive disincentive to vote Leave. A dreadful prospect.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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Does he know how tory activists feel about Cammo?CD13 said:A friend of mine (a strong Corbynite) told me last night that he's decided to abstain on the EU Referendum. He wants to vote Remain but can't bring himself to vote for Cameron under any circumstances.
Anecdote, but I suspect he's not the only one.
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I see that ComRes had current Tories splitting evenly for Leave/Remain, and Tory voters from 2015 favouring Leave. That does suggest that Ipsos MORI's finding that Tories favoured Remain by 60/34 is an outlier.0
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The principle he objected to was that we would have an ultra right Prime Minister (as he sees it) without ever having voted for one.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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Wherever it is, it's the right placeMortimer said:
Where do you get this guff?Innocent_Abroad said:
Leavers tend to feel they have a monopoly of patriotism. They have a far deeper passion for the issue than Remainders do. If there's no value bet on the result itself, how about trying to start a book on a Leaver trying to kill a Remainder with a view to pleading "justifiable homicide" in court?AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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for the same reason "Conservatives" in France voted for Hollande to keep the Front Nationale out ?AlastairMeeks said:
Paul Mason isn't a Tory. Why should he want to enable a still more rightwing Tory government?chestnut said:
It presents the EU as an obstacle to Tory government. A blocking mechanism. An over-riding authority.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
Remain = Tories against Tory government.0 -
Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown
44 minutes 44 seconds0 -
To be fair SO, no one has covered themselves in glory on this.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - those thinking Labour voters will vote Leave to kick out Dave and George forget that most Labour voters believe - correctly - that Labour will lose in 2020. If the current PM and Chancellor go, all it will mean is a further Tory move to the right. Why facilitate that? And wo in their right mind would want Boris anywhere near power? The referendum campaign has proved just how unsuited to it he is.Jonathan said:
The idea of a Gove / Johnson govt is a massive disincentive to vote Leave. A dreadful prospect.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
A few have remained quiet - but those who have got involved, including our PM, have revealed many faults.0 -
Apparently we also have Liz Hurley. TBH, I'm just glad the worst self-righteous luvvies are getting told to bugger off. The Guardian's frontpage is so awkward - a whole slab of celeb mugshots, next to a giant headline about child sex abuse.Mortimer said:I do hope that the luvvvie letter is dismissed by someone who is popular amongst the groups most likely to vote Leave - someone like Ian Botham - as people used to the limelight who don't have enough faith in the public they want to watch their shows making a good decision.
If that was the Mail, I could understand the piss-taking...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7334046052922490890 -
My enemy's enemy is my friend is enough for many voters. Right wingers dislike the EU so left wingers support it. In the late 1970's and early 1980's, the positions were reversed.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - those thinking Labour voters will vote Leave to kick out Dave and George forget that most Labour voters believe - correctly - that Labour will lose in 2020. If the current PM and Chancellor go, all it will mean is a further Tory move to the right. Why facilitate that? And wo in their right mind would want Boris anywhere near power? The referendum campaign has proved just how unsuited to it he is.Jonathan said:
The idea of a Gove / Johnson govt is a massive disincentive to vote Leave. A dreadful prospect.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
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Both samples fall into the usual telephone failing of finding an EICIPM sample. After that it's a competition to see who performs the most accurate adjustments and applies the most accurate weightings.Sean_F said:I see that ComRes had current Tories splitting evenly for Leave/Remain, and Tory voters from 2015 favouring Leave. That does suggest that Ipsos MORI's finding that Tories favoured Remain by 60/34 is an outlier.
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Pamela Anderson in Baywatch?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The 13 minutes of Hillary lying linked to here is quite funny: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3599306/13-minute-video-Hillary-Clinton-lying-goes-viral-YouTube-wizard-says-Don-t-worry-Trump-next.html?ITO=1490RodCrosby said:Evaporating leads, disintegrating party. Clinton has a few problems...
http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/05/19/report.-bernie-sanders-full-metal-jacket-burn-mode/
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/18/bernie-sanders-backers-have-nothing-to-lose-from-d/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS
It shows the problems of a long career.0 -
My default position is always that when I support something it will fail. Over the years it has stood me in very good stead! I never, ever bet on something happening that I want to happen.0
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If you add the don't knows to No then the eve of election polls all got it spot onMorris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
How accurate were the polls in the Scottish referendum?0 -
Who are you suggesting is ultra right?Roger said:
The principle he objected to was that we would have an ultra right Prime Minister (as he sees it) without ever having voted for one.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a perfectly respectable argument if leaving the EU is less important to him than stopping Boris Johnson or Michael Gove becoming Prime Minister. The incredulity with which this argument has been received by many Leavers shows that they don't understand that not everyone sees the subject of the EU as the top priority (though only a small minority in fact do so).Roger said:Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
Gove, who freed schools from government control and wants to introduce the most sweeping reform prisons to prisons ever suggested.
Or Johnson, who was the first Tory in power after TONY Blair, in that liberal bastion city of London.
If anything, Gove and Johnson are far more liberal than Cameron and Osborne.0 -
Tennessee - PRSA/Vanderbilt
Clinton 35 .. Trump 44
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/VanderbiltTNSpring2016_FinalTopline0512.pdf0
