politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Age versus social class: ComRes assess the first test for t

Pulpstar said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

LewisDuckworth said:

Nate Silver got it wrong:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/?ex_cid=538twitter

“It takes a lifetime to build a good reputation, but you can lose it in a minute."

Sam Wang is enjoying Nate's pisspoor 2016 immensely:

http://election.princeton.edu/

Pulpstar said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

LewisDuckworth said:

Nate Silver got it wrong:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/?ex_cid=538twitter

“It takes a lifetime to build a good reputation, but you can lose it in a minute."

Sam Wang is enjoying Nate's pisspoor 2016 immensely:

http://election.princeton.edu/

MarqueeMark said:

MTimT said:

RodCrosby said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RodCrosby said:

Clinton in BIG trouble

5/17-5/18 Rasmussen
2016 General Election
Trump 42% Clinton 37%

Second consecutive poll showing Trump in the lead...

Take any polls when one nominee is in place but another isn't with a mammoth dollop of salt.

Supporters of Trump's opponents within the party are at the point where they're begrudgingly getting behind him. Same can not be said for Hillary.

So true....Problem is, Bernie's supporters may well get behind The Donald!

Indeed. I saw a poll suggesting up to 35% of his support in WV will go to Trump. Not that that will make one iota of difference to the make up of the Electoral College.

The thing about Trump, is that he is like a room that only holds one big, red button.

That has DO NOT PRESS on it.

You just desperately want to know what happens if you do press the button/elect him as President....whether intrigued or appalled at the possibility, it is just too tantalising to pass up!

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, women-only is the good sort of discrimination. Keep up, old bean.

Shortlists, carriages....

MonikerDiCanio said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

LewisDuckworth said:

Nate Silver got it wrong:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/?ex_cid=538twitter

“It takes a lifetime to build a good reputation, but you can lose it in a minute."

The problem for nate is he is now the top bod of a 40 person team looking at all sorts of stuff. From interviews I have heard he now spends a huge amount of his time managing / editing rather than being the baseball stats geek applying similar methods to politics.

I don't think Trump went under Nate's radar, quite the opposite. He owns this fiasco, royally.

marke09 said:

BBC PARLIAMENT
BBC PARLIAMENT

75: Not Out

Angela Rippon presents 75: Not Out. As the UK prepares to go to the polls over membership of the EU, BBC Parliament looks back to 5 June 1975 when the British public was asked to vote on being part of the European Economic Community (EEC) in the country’s first ever nationwide referendum.

Legendary BBC newsreader Angela Rippon returns to the story she covered as a young journalist, presenting an evening of programmes from the BBC archives and sharing her memories of the political turmoil of a nation - and a government - divided.

The circumstances sound familiar: A Prime Minister promises to renegotiate the country's terms of European membership and then takes the choice to the people. He makes the unprecedented decision to allow members of his cabinet to campaign to leave, despite his government urging the public to vote yes. But the Prime Minster in question was Harold Wilson, and the year was 1975.

Viewers will be treated to key moments in the 1975 campaign including the tense Panorama head-to-head between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins and the riotous Oxford Union debate between Barbara Castle, Ted Heath, Jeremy Thorpe and Peter Shore. Newly-crowned Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher pops up in her striking European flag jumper and to give her support to the ‘In’ campaign on Newsday. The night ends with a young David Dimbleby presenting his first national results programme, when 67 percent of British voters said ‘Yes’ to the UK's membership of the European Economic Community (EEC).

Join BBC Parliament on 5 June for 75: Not Out, a trip down memory lane, when no studio was too beige and no collar too large.

75: Not Out Schedule
19:05 The National Referendum Campaign ‘Out Into The World’ party political broadcast

19:15 Part I: Debate from the Oxford Union featuring Peter Shore & Jeremy Thorpe

20:05 ‘Britain In Europe’ party political broadcast with Jim Callaghan, Shirley Williams, David Steel, Willie Whitelaw and Roy Jenkins

20:15 The Rock and Roll Years 1975

20:45 Newsday: Angela Rippon reads the news, Michael Charlton interviews Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher

21:00 Panorama: David Dimbleby presents a head to head debate between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins

21:50 Nationwide: Bernard Falk talks to ex-pat Brits living in Brussels

22:00 Part II: Debate from the Oxford Union featuring Barbara Castle and Ted Heath

23:00 News: Pro-marketeers celebrate victory and Tony Benn is graceful in defeat

23:05 Referendum results programme presented by David Dimbleby with David Butler

Sunday 5 June

7.00pm-1.05am

BBC PARLIAMENT

dr_spyn said:

Corbyn has been interviewed by Joey Essex, but only one of them is trying to boost a flagging career.

RobD said:

I think Silver has a way overinflated ego. When it comes down to it the presidency is won or lost on a handful of states, but yet people make him out to be some sort of soothsayer.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bedfordshire, time to implement the Miliband Protocol and immediately state respect for white vans.

JackW said:

RobD said:

I think Silver has a way overinflated ego. When it comes down to it the presidency is won or lost on a handful of states, but yet people make him out to be some sort of soothsayer.

Way over inflated ego .. POTUS elections .. Outstanding prior performance .. soothsayer ..

I mean .. really .. if only PB might count a few among its number ..

RobD said:

Naughty... I never said outstanding performance

Tim_B said:

Egyptair VP confirms that wreckage has been found. It is a now officially a search and recovery mission, so it looks like no survivors.

Investigations are being stepped up on who had airside access to the plane at CDG, and also regarding the plane's itinerary in the previous 24 hours.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OllyT said:

blackburn63 said:

OllyT said:

anothernick said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

Another weasel-worded non apology from an elite Labour MP. Lady Bucket Mk II.

Calling Pat Glass one of the elite is stretching the term rather far!

Elite in her attitudes, if not in her upbringing.

How many Labour WWC are going to turn out for Remain, outside London?

I think a lot, I've been surprised how many WWC and youthful campaigners in Sheffield Remain have.

Interesting. A few weeks ago there was some nervousness amongst the metropolitan Labour elite that WWC Labour voters outside London might not be motivated to turn out or even tempted to vote leave by the siren calls of UKIP.

Fortunately the unions have weighed in heavily and Corbyn & McDonnell have done a lot to dispel talk that they were only lukewarm about Remain.

I find it amusing when people like Blackburn63 confidently assert there will be "very few" WWC voters backing Remain outside of London. I doubt they they have a clue what campaigning the unions are doing.

Who can forget how well UKIP were going to do in last years' s Oldham by-election?

I am expecting very substantial numbers of WWC Remain voters, particularly in the big cities.

Do you live in London?

No I live in the North-West and I can assure you there are dozens of WWC voters involved in our Remain campaign

Unfortunately, there are millions of voters in the North-West, not "dozens".

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tim_B said:

Egyptair VP confirms that wreckage has been found. It is a now officially a search and recovery mission, so it looks like no survivors.

Investigations are being stepped up on who had airside access to the plane at CDG, and also regarding the plane's itinerary in the previous 24 hours.

It came from Tunisia prior to cdg apparently.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tim_B said:

Egyptair VP confirms that wreckage has been found. It is a now officially a search and recovery mission, so it looks like no survivors.

Investigations are being stepped up on who had airside access to the plane at CDG, and also regarding the plane's itinerary in the previous 24 hours.

It came from Tunisia prior to cdg apparently.

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, women-only is the good sort of discrimination. Keep up, old bean.

Shortlists, carriages....

If only everyone took a leaf out of Ruth (PBUH) Davidson's book, things would even up of their own accord.

Eventually..

twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/733303484540424192

I wonder what the gender ratio isn for the Tory cohort as a whole. If selected entirely based on merit, it should reflect that.

If one holds to the optimistic view that candidates are selected entirely based on merit, it would appear the SCons are pisspoor at attracting talented women to their ranks.

'Yet while the SNP and Labour’s use of quotas has made a difference, the overall figures have stagnated due in large part to an unexpectedly strong Tory performance across Scotland. Only around 19 per cent of Scottish Conservative candidates were women – and one of their regional lists, Highlands and Islands, was men-only. Top list places were also predominantly taken by men – with the party’s North East Scotland list returning four male MSPs, while West Scotland included more candidates named ‘Maurice’ (two, both elected), than it did women (one, in tenth position). The same number of Conservative women were elected as in 2011 – six – but this is set in the context of the party more than doubling its seats, which means that only 19 per cent of Conservative MSPs are women.'

http://tinyurl.com/h8c2v7m

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

David ginola has had a heart attack & in a bad way in hospital.

Bloody hell. He's no age.

FrancisUrquhart said:

David ginola has had a heart attack & in a bad way in hospital.

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, women-only is the good sort of discrimination. Keep up, old bean.

Shortlists, carriages....

If only everyone took a leaf out of Ruth (PBUH) Davidson's book, things would even up of their own accord.

Eventually..

twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/733303484540424192

I wonder what the gender ratio isn for the Tory cohort as a whole. If selected entirely based on merit, it should reflect that.

If one holds to the optimistic view that candidates are selected entirely based on merit, it would appear the SCons are pisspoor at attracting talented women to their ranks.

'Yet while the SNP and Labour’s use of quotas has made a difference, the overall figures have stagnated due in large part to an unexpectedly strong Tory performance across Scotland. Only around 19 per cent of Scottish Conservative candidates were women – and one of their regional lists, Highlands and Islands, was men-only. Top list places were also predominantly taken by men – with the party’s North East Scotland list returning four male MSPs, while West Scotland included more candidates named ‘Maurice’ (two, both elected), than it did women (one, in tenth position). The same number of Conservative women were elected as in 2011 – six – but this is set in the context of the party more than doubling its seats, which means that only 19 per cent of Conservative MSPs are women.'

http://tinyurl.com/h8c2v7m

So it is actually the local associations whose book we should be taking a leaf from Saying that, I do agree that more should be done to make being a Tory MSP an attractive prospect for both genders.

Edited to add - I hadn't realised that the SNP used all-women shortlists. That may flatter their position somewhat given the Tories' ideological oppositions such things.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tim_B said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tim_B said:

Egyptair VP confirms that wreckage has been found. It is a now officially a search and recovery mission, so it looks like no survivors.

Investigations are being stepped up on who had airside access to the plane at CDG, and also regarding the plane's itinerary in the previous 24 hours.

It came from Tunisia prior to cdg apparently.

It had 4 flights yesterday. Including Southern Egypt, Tunisia, Cairo and up to Paris.

It's amazing how hard these planes work.

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Football League wants new five-league, 100-club system
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36335384

And what are they going to change the name of the top tier to THIS time?

The Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious League?

The La Liga Best In Europe - My Arse League?

Hint: how about League Division One?

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like Cameron has folded:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332415

Gaius said:

RodCrosby said:

Clinton in BIG trouble

5/17-5/18 Rasmussen
2016 General Election
Trump 42% Clinton 37%

Second consecutive poll showing Trump in the lead...

Trump is going to beat Clinton like a baby seal. Good.

Where is Cromwell, btw.

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: John Swinney told to rethink SNP state guardian plan on first full day in new job https://t.co/6WDD3BYEMH https://t.co/5sRfqACKhW

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Football League wants new five-league, 100-club system
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36335384

And what are they going to change the name of the top tier to THIS time?

The Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious League?

The La Liga Best In Europe - My Arse League?

Hint: how about League Division One?

OllyT said:

Casino_Royale said:

OllyT said:

anothernick said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

Another weasel-worded non apology from an elite Labour MP. Lady Bucket Mk II.

Calling Pat Glass one of the elite is stretching the term rather far!

Elite in her attitudes, if not in her upbringing.

How many Labour WWC are going to turn out for Remain, outside London?

I think a lot, I've been surprised how many WWC and youthful campaigners in Sheffield Remain have.

Interesting. A few weeks ago there was some nervousness amongst the metropolitan Labour elite that WWC Labour voters outside London might not be motivated to turn out or even tempted to vote leave by the siren calls of UKIP.

Fortunately the unions have weighed in heavily and Corbyn & McDonnell have done a lot to dispel talk that they were only lukewarm about Remain.

I find it amusing when people like Blackburn63 confidently assert there will be "very few" WWC voters backing Remain outside of London. I doubt they they have a clue what campaigning the unions are doing.

Who can forget how well UKIP were going to do in last years' s Oldham by-election?

I am expecting very substantial numbers of WWC Remain voters, particularly in the big cities.

I think the Remain ground campaign is stronger and better coordinated than the Leave campaign but it seems to be concentrated in major cities and metropolitan areas, and that won't necessarily be decisive.

Who knows. My gut instinct is that if Remain can get the overall turnout up to 65% they will win comfortably. As it's a national referendum every vote counts and the cities are where turnout is usually lowest, which is why a lot of effort will be focussed there from the Remain camp.

MarqueeMark said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like Cameron has folded:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332415

So what happens when the TTIP deal is done and doesn't include these protections? Since the trade deal is decided by QMV there is every chance that Cameron agreeing to this in Parliament is meaningless.

We have 6 weeks to hammer home that point. Cameron has no reply.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Muirfield's members were right to block women from joining, says 'voice of golf' Peter Alliss

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/muirfields-members-were-right-to-block-women-from-joining-says-v/

Theuniondivvie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Muirfield's members were right to block women from joining, says 'voice of golf' Peter Alliss

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/muirfields-members-were-right-to-block-women-from-joining-says-v/

Surely he should have said that the 36% of members that voted to block women from joining were right to overrule the 64% that voted to accept them.

JackW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Chromebooks outsold Macs for the first time in the US

http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/19/11711714/chromebooks-outsold-macs-us-idc-figures

Wow that is incredibly surprising. I didn't think Chromebooks had gained much traction.

Mrs JackW uses the small "flip" model. She loves the versatility, different positions, size and staying power - up to 10 hours per session.

Oh er missus ...

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like Cameron has folded:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332415

So what happens when the TTIP deal is done and doesn't include these protections? Since the trade deal is decided by QMV there is every chance that Cameron agreeing to this in Parliament is meaningless.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like Cameron has folded:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332415

So what happens when the TTIP deal is done and doesn't include these protections? Since the trade deal is decided by QMV there is every chance that Cameron agreeing to this in Parliament is meaningless.

Of course it's meaningless. It's a completely silly amendment brought in for no other reason than childishness (although it's amusing enough to see that particular list of signatories pretending to support protectionism for NHS providers).

Quite how some Leavers have got themselves into the contortion of supporting protectionism is a mystery. What on earth do they think the terms of the much-vaunted trade deal with the US which they claim to want would be?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

Looks like Cameron has folded:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332415

So what happens when the TTIP deal is done and doesn't include these protections? Since the trade deal is decided by QMV there is every chance that Cameron agreeing to this in Parliament is meaningless.

Of course it's meaningless. It's a completely silly amendment brought in for no other reason than childishness (although it's amusing enough to see that particular list of signatories pretending to support protectionism for NHS providers).

Quite how some Leavers have got themselves into the contortion of supporting protectionism is a mystery. What on earth do they think the terms of the much-vaunted trade deal with the US which they claim to want would be?

Ah yes the Eurofanatic once again pops up to blindly defend Cameron and the EU.

Why am I not surprised.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Keep telling yourself that. There is only one of us who blindly supports his party no matter what.

MarqueeMark said:

Is there a list anywhere of these Tory rebels who were prepared to vote against the Queen's Speech?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Keep telling yourself that. There is only one of us who blindly supports his party no matter what.

The party which I support is hardly Eurofanatic or even Europhile!

I can't think of any case, not one, where you have accepted that there is any valid argument whatsoever for remaining in the EU. Not one. You call anyone who is mildly in favour, on balance, of staying in a 'Eurofanatic' or a 'Europhile'. You accuse everyone who is unpersuaded of your case of lying.

As I said, it's quite clear who the fanatic is, and it ain't me.

Luckyguy1983 said:

OllyT said:

I find it amusing when people like Blackburn63 confidently assert there will be "very few" WWC voters backing Remain outside of London.

I think you may have a rather a low amusement threshold

FrancisUrquhart said:

JackW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Chromebooks outsold Macs for the first time in the US

http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/19/11711714/chromebooks-outsold-macs-us-idc-figures

Wow that is incredibly surprising. I didn't think Chromebooks had gained much traction.

Mrs JackW uses the small "flip" model. She loves the versatility, different positions, size and staying power - up to 10 hours per session.

Oh er missus ...

I have played with one and I quite liked it and could see how it would be attractive for those that just want to do basic tasks (no good for myself), but they don't get a huge amount of coverage

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

Is there a list anywhere of these Tory rebels who were prepared to vote against the Queen's Speech?

The PM has a list copied to the Tower of London.

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

JackW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Chromebooks outsold Macs for the first time in the US

http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/19/11711714/chromebooks-outsold-macs-us-idc-figures

Wow that is incredibly surprising. I didn't think Chromebooks had gained much traction.

Mrs JackW uses the small "flip" model. She loves the versatility, different positions, size and staying power - up to 10 hours per session.

Oh er missus ...

I have played with one and I quite liked it and could see how it would be attractive for those that just want to do basic tasks (no good for myself), but they don't get a huge amount of coverage

That could have been better phrased...

HYUFD said:

Gaius said:

MarqueeMark said:

MTimT said:

RodCrosby said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RodCrosby said:

Clinton in BIG trouble

5/17-5/18 Rasmussen
2016 General Election
Trump 42% Clinton 37%

Second consecutive poll showing Trump in the lead...

Take any polls when one nominee is in place but another isn't with a mammoth dollop of salt.

Supporters of Trump's opponents within the party are at the point where they're begrudgingly getting behind him. Same can not be said for Hillary.

So true....Problem is, Bernie's supporters may well get behind The Donald!

Indeed. I saw a poll suggesting up to 35% of his support in WV will go to Trump. Not that that will make one iota of difference to the make up of the Electoral College.

The thing about Trump, is that he is like a room that only holds one big, red button.

That has DO NOT PRESS on it.

You just desperately want to know what happens if you do press the button/elect him as President....whether intrigued or appalled at the possibility, it is just too tantalising to pass up!

What do we know a bout Trump?

He has a genius level IQ.

He built a multi billion dollar company.

He has written bestselling books.

Has had a hit TV show for years.

Has pumped and dumped numerous supermodels.

IOW he is extremely competent*.

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that he actually understands the problems facing america and he will attempt to impliment sensible policies.

*compare and contrast with Clinton, what has she ever actually achieved apart from marrying an extremely talented politician.

Hillary was listed as one of the best lawyers of her generation, has a 145 IQ, was twice elected Senator for New York and was Secretary of State. People may dislike them but Trump and Clinton are probably the most experienced and capable candidates to have run for president in years (though Trump inherited much of his wealth so his business success should not be too hyped up)

Pulpstar said:

It's obviously not their main objective (Neither is Bojo leading the Leave campaign from the blues entirely about the country...), but I'm happy the assorted shits and bastards have used their power to offer a veto over TTIP to the NHS.