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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Age versus social class: ComRes assess the first test for t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Age versus social class: ComRes assess the first test for their turnout model and its implications for EURef
The polls for the London mayoral election performed strongly across the board, perhaps bringing pollsters some respite following last year’s General Election. But as pollsters, we must be careful never to rest on our laurels and make sure to review our methods and seek to improve when things go well, as well as when bigger problems occur.
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FPT: Mr. Sandpit, I agree, with a caveat. The McLaren is still unreliable, and nowhere's easier to crash than Monaco (although that can also help them if cars ahead fail to finish).
how many threads have I missed!!!
"Age Versus Social Class" ... What about "Age and Aristocracy" ? ....
Thank goodness I'm not a moderate red or really it would all be too much
Looking forward to 10pm, if this is also a 10 point remain lead do we call it now?
The only highlight has been my first telephone poll call and helping lead the blue surge to remain as a result.....
PredictIt, Hillary@1.75
Betfair, Hillary@1.45
PredictIt, Trump@2.33
Betfair, Trump@3.75
Sainz may be looking good too. He had a strong race in Spain, but, understandably, barely got a moment on the screen once he slipped to 5th.
I still wonder how similar the electorates for national/local elections are to those for 'once in a lifetime' referenda.
Interesting that the idea that demographic turnout (boosting Remain) could trump age-related turnout (boosting Leave). I'm not surprised. Leave need to try and swing AB voters over rather than just chase non-voters.
Oh to be able to bet there from the UK !
Incidentally do you have to be a US citizen or just physically in the US? Or have a US bank account?
http://news.sky.com/story/1698899/golfer-mickelson-named-in-trading-scam-case
I know which side all the big bookies are rooting for...billy Walters is a legendary sports bettor who has spent years and years beating then.
http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12280555/how-billy-walters-became-sports-most-successful-controversial-bettor
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2468/Will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-New-York-Democratic-primary-exceed-15-percentage-points#data
That is a 5% return whenever the results are certified, as sure as tommorow is a friday.
No good chasing non-voters - they are non-voters, they don't vote. The idea that non-voters will be inspired by Leave (or Corbyn's Labour) to break the non-voting habit of a lifetime is for the birds. Leave has to win over those who do vote.
Interesting that in the UK Hillary is further ahead than in the US, suggests that the UK haven't woken up yet to how close it might be. The Trump back on Betfair is probably the best value of the four bets.
Haralabos Voulgaris (nothing to do with Walters) is also super interesting guy. He is one of the top nba bettors in the world.
ABC1 in Islington is very different to ABC1 in Surrey.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/733304888839548928
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/733283679947132928
What does Dave think of Glass?
These days with dfs (daily fantasy sports), there are also sort of groups of nerds "in the lab " crunching the numbers to beat this new form of gambling.
The significance of AB social grades (who lean heavily towards Remain) actually slightly outweighed that of older voters.
May hold the key to the referendum.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTr8IVWBuPE
"Zac had leads ranging between 22% and 30% with the overs 65s, yet still lost by nearly 14%, which these polls accurately predicted."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/08/zac-goldsmith-led-by-up-to-30-with-the-over-65s-and-still-lost/
Basically no-one is winning unless they're professionals at it, with large spreadsheets and researchers.
https://youtu.be/Mq785nJ0FXQ
How many Labour WWC are going to turn out for Remain, outside London?
Rinse and repeat.
Yet there has been a trend of a narrowing gap, favourable to Leave, in the polls since February, there are five weeks to go and several online pollsters have Leave ahead.
Depends how you define elite. Being a shadow minister is a fairly elite position.
* This is not to be interpreted as a tip.
Firstly, while the Likely Electorate Model helped us produce the right result in London, this was using an online survey methodology (as it is more appropriate for contacting London’s young and transient population). We are yet to see how the model interplays with telephone polling, which we are using for polling the EU referendum
Given that we know the online and telephone polls for the referendum are so different, It's perfectly possible that the model won't be appropriate to tonight's ComRes (phone) poll - it might even make things worse to apply it.
Leave are shit.
Or at least, I think I'm not. I have just ordered a case of Léoville Barton 2015, so maybe I am. But I paid for it from my betting winnings, so maybe not. The main question is whether it's ready to drink before I pop my clogs.
whose bets were judicious and savvy
with his mountain of dosh
he began to talk posh
and called himself Doctor Nabavi :-)
Fortunately the unions have weighed in heavily and Corbyn & McDonnell have done a lot to dispel talk that they were only lukewarm about Remain.