politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum will be decided by voters who don’t feel str

anothernick said:

David_Evershed said:

IPSOS MORI in the Standard says 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the EU.

Anecdote alert

I was canvassing with the Labour In campaign in inner London last weekend - our group recorded 200 contacts, 90% remain, 10% don't know AND NO LEAVE. NOT ONE. Street properties (ie not social housing), mostly young professional residents. But NO ONE for leave.

The clue is in the two words "young" and "professional". Both strongly Remain. Go to a street of retired social class CDE workers, particularly outside London, and I think you will find the percentages reversed. The demographic indicators in this referendum are stark - unlike Scotland's independence referendum where the voters were split across almost every demographic.

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

AlastairMeeks said:

@stjohn I'd made the exact opposite decision from you at roughly the same time.

Based on the Mori tweet? You read that it would be a move to REMAIN?

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT but Un-fucking-believable.

This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.

What exactly are they doing?

@stjohn - before seeing the MORI tweet, on my assessment of fundamentals.

AlastairMeeks said:

@stjohn I'd made the exact opposite decision from you at roughly the same time.

Spend my money wisely.

chestnut said:

David_Evershed said:

David_Evershed said:

IPSOS MORI in the Standard says 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the EU.

The poll also found the Conservatives 36% are two points ahead of Labour 34 per cent, with Ukip on 10 and the Lib-Dems on eight

No way are Labour as high as 34. No sign of it all in the elections at the start of the month.

No way are Conservatives as high as 36% . No sign of it at all in the elections at the start of the month .

TheScreamingEagles said:

Where are the posters who kept on quoting the poll of polls average?

Gone quiet for some reason.

*Innocent Face*

From your post earlier in the week, we still have ComRes phone to come?

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Where are the posters who kept on quoting the poll of polls average?

Gone quiet for some reason.

*Innocent Face*

From your post earlier in the week, we still have ComRes phone to come?

Yes hopefully.

Should be getting an Opinium poll this weekend too.

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?

Mike: Maybe the BORIS factor is proving to be a negative for #LEAVE.

Morris_Dancer said:

Whilst I still think Remain will win, getting giddy over a single poll is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

It's not the spark, it's the tinder.

From ONS:

- Romanian and Bulgarian nationals working in the UK rose by 55,000 pa, from 173,000 to 228,000

- total up 131,000 from 808,000 to 939,000 and those from Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and the Czech Republic from 931,000 to 962,000.

Richard_Nabavi said:

What the Ipsos MORI subsidiary questions suggest is that Remain should increase their focus on the economy and tone down the security stuff.

Conversely, Leave need to find a better way either of neutralising the economic worries, or if they can't do that, at least find a better way of moving the debate on to more favourable ground for them (immigration, red tape).

I think the evidence is that the last couple of weeks banging on about immigration has harmed Leave.

And I think Red Tape equals Mr Tyndalls environmental and archeological protection.

JackW said:

I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.

OR by noting it will be the current Prime Minister's last....

MarkHopkins said:

PeterC said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?

Why do you think we won't be anyway?

The euro is like a black hole - you can't not be affected by it. But you do not have to travel voluntarily inside the event horizon.

PeterC said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?

I think this is the disconnect some on the remain side have, the EU is a political construct rather than an economic one. If we are going to be a major political player in it, we need to make sure we are properly in it, not have one foot out of the door. Economically it is probably a poor idea to join the EMU, but after a remain vote the political reality will be to join to make our voice properly heard. Our position doesn't give us the political clout we need to ensure we are getting our agenda through. I'm in the Leave camp, personally I want to see us out of the whole mess, but if the public vote to remain, then we have to be fully in, no more half-hearted attempts at being both in and out at the same time.

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

IPSOS is remain at an implied 60%.

Let the wailing, whinging and whining begin.....

The polls are what they are, and there isn't much we can do to change them.

If that is the result I will be giving up on politics for good.

Life's too short, and I'm tired of caring and then being let down.

There's nothing in the future of the Conservative Party that excites me.

I'd far rather quietly live out my life with my wife, family and pets in the country.

That's an interesting comment, because it mirrors my attitude to Labour politics which made me move (back) to the left. I just couldn't be bothered any more to campaign for a vacuous policy offering, mainly on the basis that the other lot were worse.

I think we both reflect a real trend out there. There is a partly-conscious belief that the status quo is not ideal but that a convincing alternative is not being offered. So people just switch off, or they embrace radical change, despite awareness that it may not quite work out. That's why Syriza won not just once but twice - Greeks could see it was difficult and perhaps impossible, but they gave them credit for trying.

OT The only Kentucky poll took place a year ago:

Chafee: 5%
Clinton: 56%
O'Malley: 3%
Sanders: 12%
Webb: 7%
Someone else/Not sure: 18%

That's an implied 62% for Hillary (If you remap others to the actual "others"). In the end barely got over 46%.

25 June 2015

We're half a year away from November.

Disappointing poll for the Brexiteers.

I recommend they get IDS on TV as much as possible for the next 4 weeks to try and reverse this trend...

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What the Ipsos MORI subsidiary questions suggest is that Remain should increase their focus on the economy and tone down the security stuff.

Conversely, Leave need to find a better way either of neutralising the economic worries, or if they can't do that, at least find a better way of moving the debate on to more favourable ground for them (immigration, red tape).

I think the evidence is that the last couple of weeks banging on about immigration has harmed Leave.

And I think Red Tape equals Mr Tyndalls environmental and archeological protection.

The one pager from the Leave campaign in the Electoral Commission leaflet sent to all households is completely silent on the economy. Their big claim is £350 million of taxpayers' money being sent each week to the EU. They repeat the claim four times. What they don't say on immigration is more interesting than what they do say. They point to the huge scale of immigration and point out it is controlled by the EU at present. They imply, but don't actually say, that we would control it on exit.

@PCollinsTimes: I suspect Leave has reached the point where its efforts are now doing nothing but increase turnout. Self-saboteurs from here on in.

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT but Un-fucking-believable.

This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.

Except on climate change and EU membership, it strikes me that we tend to agree 90% of the time. I'd seriously consider voting for you if you were a candidate (and maybe vice versa?). Time to think about voting Labour?

@NickPalmer I thought your party had banned blood sports?

‏@JosephineCumbo · 33s34 seconds ago

Sir Philip Green to appear before #BHSpensionfund inquiry on June 15, it has been confirmed.

MaxPB said:

PeterC said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

Do you really think this? Look at the state of southern Europe - the euro has squeezed the life out of their economies. Do you want to be on the receiving end of the bill if it all goes seriously pear shaped?

I think this is the disconnect some on the remain side have, the EU is a political construct rather than an economic one. If we are going to be a major political player in it, we need to make sure we are properly in it, not have one foot out of the door. Economically it is probably a poor idea to join the EMU, but after a remain vote the political reality will be to join to make our voice properly heard. Our position doesn't give us the political clout we need to ensure we are getting our agenda through. I'm in the Leave camp, personally I want to see us out of the whole mess, but if the public vote to remain, then we have to be fully in, no more half-hearted attempts at being both in and out at the same time.

I can see your point. Let's wait for the result. A REMAIN 60/40 could give some impetus to what you say; a narrow REMAIN will not settle the matter.

One of the great problems for LEAVE is that there is no clear and immediate reason to quit now. Yes, migration is a problem, ditto the eurozone. But no casus belli which would give rise to a sentiment that we really must be out of this. If we stay I think we should just keep our powder dry. There are some nasty developments brewing in Europe right now - and we need to see how they all play out.

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).

If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.

Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.

No it doesn't it creates a superstate on our doorstep, one in which we have no say in the governance of but are still going to be a part of in some manner. The status quo, even in the event that Dave's deal is somehow made binding, doesn't suit us politically or, eventually, economically. Do we really want to be Canada to the EU superstate being told by our larger neighbour exactly what to do and to like it? Or is it better to be California or New York within the superstate. Personally I'd rather not be in either position and cast our net globally, but in the event of a remain vote, that isn't going to happen. Remainers need to face up to the political reality that in order to gain 2-4% GDP you're enabling hardcore federalists and hitching the UK to that train. I've been upfront about it, the post-Brexit market turbulence is, on balance, a price worth paying for getting out of the political nightmare of the EU, the Remain side is oddly silent on the looming threat of the EU super state and what role we would have either with our current approach or when it becomes clear that the status quo just means marginalisation within the EU, all the negatives with few to none of the positives.

It appears from video doing the rounds that Corbyn just completed ignored Cameron and resisted all attempts for a little small talk on the way into Queen's talk. What's wrong with these people?

Here';s something to cheer everyone up...

If "Remain" does win 60-40, George Osborne is most likely back in the game ^_~

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.

OR by noting it will be the current Prime Minister's last....

Strange isn't it.

As a Tory activist you campaigned for a Conservative government led by PM Cameron. You got one and and now after one year you can't wait to see the back of him.

In contrast as a non Conservative I'd prefer to see Cameron serve at least four years.

Funny business politics.

I didn't realise you were a non-Conservative Jack.

SandyRentool said:

"Powers to convert under-performing schools in "unviable" local authorities to academies"

Isn't this a watering down of the watering down?

It's homeopathy policy making.

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out aken it further given our huge current account deficit.

We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).

If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.

Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.

No it doesn't it creates a superstate on our doorstep, one in which we have no say in the governance of but are still going to be a part of in some manner. The status quo, even in the event that Dave's deal is somehow made binding, doesn't suit us politically or, eventually, economically. Do we really want to be Canada to the EU superstate being told by our larger neighbour exactly what to do and to like it? Or is it better to be California or New York within the superstate. Personally I'd rather not be in either position and cast our net globally, but in the event of a remain vote, that isn't going to happen. Remainers need to face up to the political reality that in order to gain 2-4% GDP you're enabling hardcore federalists and hitching the UK to that train. I've been upfront about it, the post-Brexit market turbulence is, on balance, a price worth paying for getting out of the political nightmare of the EU, the Remain side is oddly silent on the looming threat of the EU super state and what role we would have either with our current approach or when it becomes clear that the status quo just means marginalisation within the EU, all the negatives with few to none of the positives.

How is us leaving not going to end up with a superstate on our doorstep? Do you think they will abandon all plans if we leave? Will we be less marginalised if we leave than if we stay?

For me it is a logic fail.

I think you are unduly pessimistic about our prospects if we stay in. But you know that as we have had this conversation before several times so perhaps best leave it there.

JackW said:

Pulpstar said:

JackW said:

New Hampshire - WBUR

Clinton 44 .. Trump 42
Sanders 54 .. Trump 38

http://www.wbur.org/2016/05/18/wbur-poll-clinton-trump-new-hampshire

The closest New Hampshire poll yet - where the voters are by my reckoning the most powerful in the country.

All swing states like to think themselves as the "most powerful". IMO this cycle no individual state will be.

For all the heat and precious little light the essentials of the election remain the same. Where does Trump expand his reach and the map?

Massachusetts is by my reckoning the least powerful voter.

Pulpstar said:

Here';s something to cheer everyone up...

If "Remain" does win 60-40, George Osborne is most likely back in the game ^_~

More likely the country will insist Dave continues past 2020

PeterC said:

I can see your point. Let's wait for the result. A REMAIN 60/40 could give some impetus to what you say; a narrow REMAIN will not settle the matter.

One of the great problems for LEAVE is that there is no clear and immediate reason to quit now. Yes, migration is a problem, ditto the eurozone. But no casus belli which would give rise to a sentiment that we really must be out of this. If we stay I think we should just keep our powder dry. There are some nasty developments brewing in Europe right now - and we need to see how they all play out.

But there's the disconnect again. In order to keep our powder dry we will be marginalising ourselves even further than we currently are. If we were in the EMU and the Tories sat with the EPP, is there any doubt that Junker would have given the UK the Internal Markets commissioner role? Of course not, we would get it at a canter. The problem is that our position naturally puts us on the sideline. The other nations see the EU as a political project, we see it as an economic one. Look at the current Remain argument, it is an economic one, look at where Leave are failing, on the economics, the people see it as an economic partnership. The reality of the EU is a political partnership and eventually a complete political union. The EU has been completely up front about this goal, fair play to them, it is our politicians who naively think that we can somehow "opt-out" of the major driving force of the EU and yet still hold an influential position within the EU and ensure our interests are protected. It's like a football match where a substitute believes he can score even if the manager doesn't put him on the pitch. That's who we are in the EU right now with our status quo position, the same goes for Sweden and Denmark.

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).

If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.

Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.

Indeed, I don't see why we need to have a 'throw the baby out with the bath water' or 'burn the house down' attitude regarding our membership of the EU. Life is complicated and getting anything you want is a struggle - even more so international relations.

Although I'll vote remain, I would have liked a close result - perhaps 52% v 48% - so that the pressure is kept on the EU to make sure that the deal works and is improved over time.

My problem now is that the Tory hard right seem determined to undermine Cameron and the Tory manifesto commitments and a close result would just give them more ammunition and righteous indignation against him.

JackW said:

SandyRentool said:

"Powers to convert under-performing schools in "unviable" local authorities to academies"

Isn't this a watering down of the watering down?

It's homeopathy policy making.

And HMG will prove the success of its academisation programme by the same means as homeopaths use. Some patients and schools will get better anyway. They prove the treatment worked. Some will stay the same: they need more treatment, and we expect to see improvement within the next six months. Some will get worse and die: the treatment would have worked but the patient or failing school left it too late.

Wanderer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT but Un-fucking-believable.

This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.

What exactly are they doing?

The headline is getting rid of the requirement for archaeological or environmental assessments ahead of development.

Digitally adding hats... it's faintly tragic:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-36320123

JackW said:

Wanderer said:

I didn't realise you were a non-Conservative Jack.

As a notoriously bolshy Jacobite I find myself attempting to select the least worst option in elections. I supported the Coalition - critically at times, and would have opted for the same again.

I am happy to give this administration a fair wind.

I think we need to wait until the referendum is over before judging this administration. Whilst the first year hasn't been great (except of course the continuing progress in the economy, George be praised), that's not too surprising given the overwhelming focus on the EU.

The big question is whether, with the small majority, Cameron and/or his successor can use the last four years to achieve as much as the 2010-2015 government did. We shall see.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Wanderer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT but Un-fucking-believable.

This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.

What exactly are they doing?

The headline is getting rid of the requirement for archaeological or environmental assessments ahead of development.

Well, I agree with you. Ridiculous decision. Not even going to be popular either.

TOPPING said:

How is us leaving not going to end up with a superstate on our doorstep? Do you think they will abandon all plans if we leave? Will we be less marginalised if we leave than if we stay?

For me it is a logic fail.

I think you are unduly pessimistic about our prospects if we stay in. But you know that as we have had this conversation before several times so perhaps best leave it there.

No, we just won't be in it. That's the point of leaving. Yes we can still have some kind of relationship with the EU state but we wouldn't be governed by it. We would be a completely separate nation state with no political ties to the superstate, our companies would be bound to EU state standards when selling to the EU, but beyond that we would just live peaceably with it. Inside we would be party to harmonisation of law, economic policy and the military, but because we're on the sidelines we have very little say in how this all goes down so the ECJ reverts to it's default, "what's the French view".

It's not pessimistic, it is realistic. Name one single time where the government set out a position which said "it's not a political union", "we won't be affected", "Britain has opted-out" that has been proved correct. Maastricht - fail, Nice - Fail, Lisbon - Fail. Every single time our government has assured us that UK interests will be protected and we wouldn't be part of the political union, every time we have been dragged into it kicking and screaming. I'd like for the political union to be abandoned as our government so clearly wants, but history and experience has taught me otherwise, it will continue unabated by our protests, if we're in, we may as well be all-in rather than sort of in.

@faisalislam: IDS come live on @skynews as the Queen's carriage arrives at HoC to suggest these symbols of UK democracy are under threat from EU....

JonathanD said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).

If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.

Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.

Indeed, I don't see why we need to have a 'throw the baby out with the bath water' or 'burn the house down' attitude regarding our membership of the EU. Life is complicated and getting anything you want is a struggle - even more so international relations.

Although I'll vote remain, I would have liked a close result - perhaps 52% v 48% - so that the pressure is kept on the EU to make sure that the deal works and is improved over time.

My problem now is that the Tory hard right seem determined to undermine Cameron and the Tory manifesto commitments and a close result would just give them more ammunition and righteous indignation against him.

The Tory hard right have always been a bunch of solipsistic tossers. They will just have to settle back down to be a bunch of ineffective solipsistic tossers, on the premise that nothing succeeds like success.

If (IF) Remain do win, then Dave will (continue to) be a winner. And even the STs might realise they want to be with him not agin' him.

I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.

TOPPING said:

JonathanD said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.

Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.

Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.

I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?

I said this at the start, I'd rather be out or in, our halfway house suits no one. If it is Remain, then I'd probably prefer to join the Eurozone and just say "fuck it" and take on the Germans and French at their own game. It would probably all end in tears, but at least no one could accuse us of not trying. The status quo doesn't help us and it doesn't help them. Additionally, we could benefit from a weaker currency like the Euro, and our addition to the EMU would probably weaken it further given our huge current account deficit.

We are in an OK place (ECJ striking down the deal nothwithstanding).

If (big if for Leavers, I grant you), the deal has teeth, we have created a 2-speed europe. Which gives us the best of both worlds, IMO.

Immigration apart, which of course for those who care will not be addressed at all.

Indeed, I don't see why we need to have a 'throw the baby out with the bath water' or 'burn the house down' attitude regarding our membership of the EU. Life is complicated and getting anything you want is a struggle - even more so international relations.

Although I'll vote remain, I would have liked a close result - perhaps 52% v 48% - so that the pressure is kept on the EU to make sure that the deal works and is improved over time.

My problem now is that the Tory hard right seem determined to undermine Cameron and the Tory manifesto commitments and a close result would just give them more ammunition and righteous indignation against him.

The Tory hard right have always been a bunch of solipsistic tossers. They will just have to settle back down to be a bunch of ineffective solipsistic tossers, on the premise that nothing succeeds like success.

If (IF) Remain do win, then Dave will (continue to) be a winner. And even the STs might realise they want to be with him not agin' him.

We live in hope. And long may IDS moulder in the well deserved obscurity of the back benches.....

CarlottaVance said:

@faisalislam: IDS come live on @skynews as the Queen's carriage arrives at HoC to suggest these symbols of UK democracy are under threat from EU....

He must be getting desperate.

Wanderer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Wanderer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT but Un-fucking-believable.

This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.

What exactly are they doing?

The headline is getting rid of the requirement for archaeological or environmental assessments ahead of development.

Well, I agree with you. Ridiculous decision. Not even going to be popular either.

How long will it be before this is dropped following another back-bench Tory revolt?

I'd give it a couple of weeks at the most.

MP_SE said:

I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.

They think they're going to win, so they don't need it.

MP_SE said:

I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.

That lying, treacherous quisling Cameron abandoned the idea after he lied to the British people to get himself elected.... How did it all go so wrong...

MP_SE said:

I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.

Presumably Michael Gove is still working on it.