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Comments
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Can only be a shift to leave, surely. Ergo the only question is whether it shows remain still ahead at all...TheScreamingEagles said:Has has just been pointed out the last time Ben Page trailed a poll as interesting was in late 2014 when Ipsos Mori picked up a huge shift to the SNP.
Gulp.0 -
Yes a phone poll.rcs1000 said:
This is a phone poll, right?TheScreamingEagles said:Has has just been pointed out the last time Ben Page trailed a poll as interesting was in late 2014 when Ipsos Mori picked up a huge shift to the SNP.
Gulp.0 -
If it shows a swing to Leave, it's worth checking to see if Ipsos Mori have moved from treating their all voters survey as definitive, or if they are now treating the survey as weighted by certainty to vote as being definitive.TheScreamingEagles said:Has has just been pointed out the last time Ben Page trailed a poll as interesting was in late 2014 when Ipsos Mori picked up a huge shift to the SNP.
Gulp.
Last month, their headline numbers were 49/39 Remain, but this fell to 50/44, when weighted by certainty to vote.0 -
It could be a huge shift to Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Has has just been pointed out the last time Ben Page trailed a poll as interesting was in late 2014 when Ipsos Mori picked up a huge shift to the SNP.
Gulp.
That would still qualify as a corker because it'd be at odds with the small moves to Leave recently with the online pollsters.0 -
EICIPM fans: Lucy Powell is enlightening the nation on BBC at the moment.0
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'I miss my friends, family and GREGGS': British jihadi who fled to Syria
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3595448/I-miss-friends-family-Greggs-British-jihadi-fled-Syria-fighter-reveals-went-avenge-killing-children-misses-home-comforts.html
It really is hard to work out the Daily Mash from the genuine media stories these days.0 -
Oh God, no. Not this again. It'll totally f-up Crossrail.tlg86 said:0 -
Maybe people don't care about the arguments any more and are just plain fed up of Dave's rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Has has just been pointed out the last time Ben Page trailed a poll as interesting was in late 2014 when Ipsos Mori picked up a huge shift to the SNP.
Gulp.0 -
Ta.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the past their (larger) samples a lot of the time ask the same people that they have previously polled, so you can see if there are genuine pattern shifts in the VI/supplementaries.Richard_Tyndall said:
TSETheScreamingEagles said:
It's remarkable what the Chief Executive of Ipsos Mori will tell me when I threaten to waterboard himWanderer said:
Oo-erTheScreamingEagles said:Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.
Ignoring for now what the BES study actually said yesterday, I was interested in why you set such store by it. I remember you saying a few days ago that it was the one poll you trusted. Is that simply because if the large size of the poll or is there something in their methodology you particularly like?
Are they generally more accurate than the standard polls and what sort of frequency do they have? Are we likely to see another one before the referendum?0 -
Leave 3.85/3.90
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Betfair is swinging slightly to remain0
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I'm sure I read last weekend in the papers that the top civil servant was already looking at this option. So is Khan just trying to get a little ahead of the curve?Casino_Royale said:
Oh God, no. Not this again. It'll totally f-up Crossrail.tlg86 said:0 -
In the past they have been in line with standard polls, YouGov do the fieldwork.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ta.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the past their (larger) samples a lot of the time ask the same people that they have previously polled, so you can see if there are genuine pattern shifts in the VI/supplementaries.Richard_Tyndall said:
TSETheScreamingEagles said:
It's remarkable what the Chief Executive of Ipsos Mori will tell me when I threaten to waterboard himWanderer said:
Oo-erTheScreamingEagles said:Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.
Ignoring for now what the BES study actually said yesterday, I was interested in why you set such store by it. I remember you saying a few days ago that it was the one poll you trusted. Is that simply because if the large size of the poll or is there something in their methodology you particularly like?
Are they generally more accurate than the standard polls and what sort of frequency do they have? Are we likely to see another one before the referendum?
We might see one more poll before referendum day, which might make tracking shifts easier.
Edit: Obviously they were better at GE 2015
Mike's write up at the time
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/16/the-british-election-study-suggests-that-differential-turnout-the-most-likely-cause-of-the-ge2015-polling-failure/
Their report at the time
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/why-did-the-polls-go-wrong-by-jon-mellon-and-chris-prosser/#.Vzw_UPkrLIX0 -
I must confess that as a kid, I lived two doors from a Gregg's, and lived on hot mince/onion pies for years - and as a treat, a peach melba fancy cake - made with that nasty artificial cream.FrancisUrquhart said:'I miss my friends, family and GREGGS': British jihadi who fled to Syria
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3595448/I-miss-friends-family-Greggs-British-jihadi-fled-Syria-fighter-reveals-went-avenge-killing-children-misses-home-comforts.html
It really is hard to work out the Daily Mash from the genuine media stories these days.0 -
Old Oak Common is a primary depot for Crossrail stabling its trains. The railway opens in 2 1/2 years and it's currently in a well advanced state of construction.rottenborough said:
I'm sure I read last weekend in the papers that the top civil servant was already looking at this option. So is Khan just trying to get a little ahead of the curve?Casino_Royale said:
Oh God, no. Not this again. It'll totally f-up Crossrail.tlg86 said:
So, yes, if he wants to delay opening Crossrail and cost us hundreds of millions he can do it. Otherwise, I'd stick to plan.0 -
Moving the HS2 terminus to OOK would be a waste of everyone's time. Why bother having a train that doesn't go to where anyone wants to go. They have already ruled out New Street in Brum and now are walking away from Euston. It is going to be one of those stupid trains that goes from nowhere to nowhere.0
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Gove looking rather pleased with himself.0
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Yep, looking ridiculous.MaxPB said:Moving the HS2 terminus to OOK would be a waste of everyone's time. Why bother having a train that doesn't go to where anyone wants to go. They have already ruled out New Street in Brum and now are walking away from Euston. It is going to be one of those stupid trains that goes from nowhere to nowhere.
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Maybe he's got the Ipsos/MORI already!rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
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LOLMaxPB said:
Maybe he's got the Ipsos/MORI already!rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
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Where?rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
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State Opening. He's Lord Chancellor so he gets to prance about in stockings and so forth.Casino_Royale said:
Where?rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
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Seamus Milne declaring “Venezuela and its progressive allies in Latin America matter to the rest of the world… because they have demonstrated that there are multiple social and economic alternatives to the failed neoliberal system that still has the west and its allies in its grip.”
http://order-order.com/2016/05/18/hard-left-silent-over-venezuela-chaos/0 -
Coming to a country near you soon.FrancisUrquhart said:Seamus Milne declaring “Venezuela and its progressive allies in Latin America matter to the rest of the world… because they have demonstrated that there are multiple social and economic alternatives to the failed neoliberal system that still has the west and its allies in its grip.”
http://order-order.com/2016/05/18/hard-left-silent-over-venezuela-chaos/0 -
We know Gove likes a spot of dressing up and prancing about....rottenborough said:
State Opening. He's Lord Chancellor so he gets to prance about in stockings and so forth.Casino_Royale said:
Where?rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
http://pythagorasandthat.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/michael-gove-vicar.jpg0 -
Well, he's right, there are multiple alternatives, such as those tried out in the Soviet Union, North Korea, and most recently in Venezuela.FrancisUrquhart said:Seamus Milne declaring “Venezuela and its progressive allies in Latin America matter to the rest of the world… because they have demonstrated that there are multiple social and economic alternatives to the failed neoliberal system that still has the west and its allies in its grip.”
http://order-order.com/2016/05/18/hard-left-silent-over-venezuela-chaos/0 -
The ONS will compare the wages of the same five workers period to period to derive the percentage change. Then use the seven workers as the start point for comaprison with the same seven workers over the next period.rcs1000 said:@chestnut
I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:Worker Earnings
Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:
1 £1,000
2 £500
3 £400
4 £300
5 £200Worker Earnings
Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!
1 £1,100
2 £550
3 £440
4 £330
5 £220
6 £100
7 £100
If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.
This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.
So aggregation would not affect the percentage change.0 -
Seamus Milne is an out-and-out Maoist, so China circa 1959, is probably his preferred alternative.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, he's right, there are multiple alternatives, such as those tried out in the Soviet Union, North Korea, and most recently in Venezuela.FrancisUrquhart said:Seamus Milne declaring “Venezuela and its progressive allies in Latin America matter to the rest of the world… because they have demonstrated that there are multiple social and economic alternatives to the failed neoliberal system that still has the west and its allies in its grip.”
http://order-order.com/2016/05/18/hard-left-silent-over-venezuela-chaos/0 -
I think Brazil should get an honourable mention. It's turned into a basket case.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, he's right, there are multiple alternatives, such as those tried out in the Soviet Union, North Korea, and most recently in Venezuela.FrancisUrquhart said:Seamus Milne declaring “Venezuela and its progressive allies in Latin America matter to the rest of the world… because they have demonstrated that there are multiple social and economic alternatives to the failed neoliberal system that still has the west and its allies in its grip.”
http://order-order.com/2016/05/18/hard-left-silent-over-venezuela-chaos/0 -
Scottish unemployment rises again = perhaps they need more refugees..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-36321056
"Unemployment in Scotland has risen for the third time in a row, according to official figures.
The jobless total went up by 8,000 between January and March to stand at 169,000.
UK unemployment fell by 2,000 over the same period to 1.69m, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.
The jobless rate north of the border is now 6.2%, compared with 5.1% for the whole of the UK.
Employment in Scotland fell by 53,000 over the three months to March to stand at 2,578,000.
The rate is now 73.1% - below the UK average of 74.2%."0 -
Maybe he's secretly dropped 'Vote Leave' into it?Wanderer said:
LOLMaxPB said:
Maybe he's got the Ipsos/MORI already!rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
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What a plonker
@faisalislam: IDS come live on @skynews as the Queen's carriage arrives at HoC to suggest these symbols of UK democracy are under threat from EU....0 -
No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.0
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I'm sorry, but I don't think you're correct.David_Evershed said:
The ONS will compare the wages of the same five workers period to period to derive the percentage change. Then use the seven workers as the start point for comaprison with the same seven workers over the next period.rcs1000 said:@chestnut
I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:Worker Earnings
Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:
1 £1,000
2 £500
3 £400
4 £300
5 £200Worker Earnings
Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!
1 £1,100
2 £550
3 £440
4 £330
5 £220
6 £100
7 £100
If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.
This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.
So aggregation would not affect the percentage change.0 -
Do you know I was thinking the other day, media coverage of local elections for so many years spent a lot of time talking to be all about how well the Lib Dem were doing and if they would make the breakthrough at a GE that their local performances indicated....that then turned to how much are Lib Dems being affected by being in government....this year pretty much radio silence about anything Lib Dem related, good or bad.rottenborough said:No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.
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Is there a EU Directive mandating carriages must travel in pairs or something?Scott_P said:What a plonker
@faisalislam: IDS come live on @skynews as the Queen's carriage arrives at HoC to suggest these symbols of UK democracy are under threat from EU....0 -
That'll be the impact of the lower oil price on employment in Scotland.TGOHF said:Scottish unemployment rises again = perhaps they need more refugees..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-36321056
"Unemployment in Scotland has risen for the third time in a row, according to official figures.
The jobless total went up by 8,000 between January and March to stand at 169,000.
UK unemployment fell by 2,000 over the same period to 1.69m, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.
The jobless rate north of the border is now 6.2%, compared with 5.1% for the whole of the UK.
Employment in Scotland fell by 53,000 over the three months to March to stand at 2,578,000.
The rate is now 73.1% - below the UK average of 74.2%."0 -
Really?!? ... I regret IDS is really doing himself and LEAVE no favours.Scott_P said:What a plonker
@faisalislam: IDS come live on @skynews as the Queen's carriage arrives at HoC to suggest these symbols of UK democracy are under threat from EU....0 -
Farron got a question at PMQs last week and used it to defend the Labour Mayor of London.FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you know I was thinking the other day, media coverage of local elections for so many years spent a lot of time talking to be all about how well the Lib Dem were doing and if they would make the breakthrough at a GE that their local performances indicated....that then turned to how much are Lib Dems being affected by being in government....this year pretty much radio silence about anything Lib Dem related, good or bad.rottenborough said:No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.
Utter irrelevance.0 -
AIUI they just add all the wages together and then divide it by the number of people in work for their sample group.rcs1000 said:
I'm sorry, but I don't think you're correct.David_Evershed said:
The ONS will compare the wages of the same five workers period to period to derive the percentage change. Then use the seven workers as the start point for comaprison with the same seven workers over the next period.rcs1000 said:@chestnut
I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:Worker Earnings
Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:
1 £1,000
2 £500
3 £400
4 £300
5 £200Worker Earnings
Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!
1 £1,100
2 £550
3 £440
4 £330
5 £220
6 £100
7 £100
If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.
This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.
So aggregation would not affect the percentage change.0 -
It's actually quite gobsmacking that a modern day (adviser to a) politician can bandy around the term "failed neoliberal system" in all seriousness.rottenborough said:
Seamus Milne is an out-and-out Maoist, so China circa 1959, is probably his preferred alternative.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, he's right, there are multiple alternatives, such as those tried out in the Soviet Union, North Korea, and most recently in Venezuela.FrancisUrquhart said:Seamus Milne declaring “Venezuela and its progressive allies in Latin America matter to the rest of the world… because they have demonstrated that there are multiple social and economic alternatives to the failed neoliberal system that still has the west and its allies in its grip.”
http://order-order.com/2016/05/18/hard-left-silent-over-venezuela-chaos/0 -
Their local election results were quite good - no echo effect as you state though.FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you know I was thinking the other day, media coverage of local elections for so many years spent a lot of time talking to be all about how well the Lib Dem were doing and if they would make the breakthrough at a GE that their local performances indicated....that then turned to how much are Lib Dems being affected by being in government....this year pretty much radio silence about anything Lib Dem related, good or bad.rottenborough said:No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.
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This is a comment about the media rather than the Lib Dems of course.rottenborough said:No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.
Note: On proportional representation Lib Dems would have 50 MPs in the House of Commons.0 -
Not really, 8 MPs doesn't warrant inclusion in all major televised events any more.David_Evershed said:
This is a comment about the media rather than the Lib Dems of course.rottenborough said:No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.
Note: On proportional representation Lib Dems would have 50 MPs in the House of Commons.0 -
They'll be working target seats hard though, I guess - Westmoreland, Orkney, Eastleigh and south west London do not a nation make though...Pulpstar said:
Their local election results were quite good - no echo effect as you state though.FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you know I was thinking the other day, media coverage of local elections for so many years spent a lot of time talking to be all about how well the Lib Dem were doing and if they would make the breakthrough at a GE that their local performances indicated....that then turned to how much are Lib Dems being affected by being in government....this year pretty much radio silence about anything Lib Dem related, good or bad.rottenborough said:No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.
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I'm starting to feel more frightened by the prospect of a Remain vote than a Leave one. We've already had Leave posters saying that they're coming round to the idea of a military coup and that Tories in favour of EU membership will be 'hunted like rats'. The atmosphere is turning ugly. What's astonishing is that we've all managed to live in relative peace and amity for nearly half a century under the EU's benign gaze. Now the mob is sniffing the wind. Who will come for whom first?TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if we'll see a Kristallnacht against Remainers?Scott_P said:
With prominent Brexiteers calling for people to be sacked, and threatening civil unrest, it does not feel like a campaign imbued with winning confidence...TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, Alastair wins the internet today with this line
With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich over the weekend
Frightening times.0 -
"Hands off BBC" yells Skinner in his traditional moment.0
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On PR, UKIP would have about 80. Not watching but I'm guessing that they're not there either?David_Evershed said:
This is a comment about the media rather than the Lib Dems of course.rottenborough said:No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.
Note: On proportional representation Lib Dems would have 50 MPs in the House of Commons.0 -
Britons don’t believe Brexit risks peace, poll shows - but Remain pulls ahead
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/britons-don-t-believe-brexit-risks-peace-poll-shows-but-remain-pulls-ahead-a3251021.html0 -
In a world where the LDs had survived and entered a second coalition it is interesting to spectulate just what difference that would have made on both the parameters of the EU referendum act, and on the dynamics of the campaign.David_Evershed said:
This is a comment about the media rather than the Lib Dems of course.rottenborough said:No LibDem in the studio for Queen's. How the mighty are fallen.
Note: On proportional representation Lib Dems would have 50 MPs in the House of Commons.
Clegg could have taken far more of the fire, rather than Cameron, and be pinned for the result. Also, assuming Corbyn had still been elected, there'd have been a third option for centre-left voters to rally around who were turned off by Cameron but not enamoured by Corbyn's "meh" approach to the EU either.0 -
When my mentor was Lord Chancellor, he was crossing Westminster Great Hall fully robed, bewigged, etc with a mace carrier and assorted flunkies to carry his train, gloves, etc.rottenborough said:
State Opening. He's Lord Chancellor so he gets to prance about in stockings and so forth.Casino_Royale said:
Where?rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
He saw a friend of his, Neil Marten, across the hall, shepherding a group of American tourists around the Palace.
He paused, raised one hand in the air in greeting and bellowed "Neil!"
And they all did.0 -
Bill re powers of Lords could impact result of next GE.
Method of implementing boundary changes is Statutory Instrument.
Bill may prevent Lords blocking Statutory Instruments - or at least prevent them striking them down.0 -
It's a median rather than mean, and given the sample size it should be fairly reflective of what's happening. It's something like 200,000.MaxPB said:
AIUI they just add all the wages together and then divide it by the number of people in work for their sample group.rcs1000 said:
I'm sorry, but I don't think you're correct.David_Evershed said:
The ONS will compare the wages of the same five workers period to period to derive the percentage change. Then use the seven workers as the start point for comaprison with the same seven workers over the next period.rcs1000 said:@chestnut
I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:Worker Earnings
Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:
1 £1,000
2 £500
3 £400
4 £300
5 £200Worker Earnings
Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!
1 £1,100
2 £550
3 £440
4 £330
5 £220
6 £100
7 £100
If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.
This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.
So aggregation would not affect the percentage change.0 -
Despite the doubts, today’s survey reveals the Remain campaign has pulled ahead to its biggest lead in the past three months — with 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the Eu
This is mainly due to a marked shift among Conservative supporters. The Tory swing suggests the Prime Minister’s intense campaigning is having a significant impact on his party’s followers.0 -
Not quite as dramatic as trailed...TheScreamingEagles said:Britons don’t believe Brexit risks peace, poll shows - but Remain pulls ahead
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/britons-don-t-believe-brexit-risks-peace-poll-shows-but-remain-pulls-ahead-a3251021.html0 -
Ha!Charles said:
When my mentor was Lord Chancellor, he was crossing Westminster Great Hall fully robed, bewigged, etc with a mace carrier and assorted flunkies to carry his train, gloves, etc.rottenborough said:
State Opening. He's Lord Chancellor so he gets to prance about in stockings and so forth.Casino_Royale said:
Where?rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
He saw a friend of his, Neil Marten, across the hall, shepherding a group of American tourists around the Palace.
He paused, raised one hand in the air in greeting and bellowed "Neil!"
And they all did.0 -
Excellent post. I think the same aggregation effect effect is at work when the composition of the workforce is changing from high paid full time jobs to low paid part time shelf fillers etc. The productivity of the individual jobs may be increasing but the mix effect shows a declining productivity overall.rcs1000 said:@chestnut
I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:Worker Earnings
Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:
1 £1,000
2 £500
3 £400
4 £300
5 £200Worker Earnings
Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!
1 £1,100
2 £550
3 £440
4 £330
5 £220
6 £100
7 £100
If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.
This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.
I never see this mentioned in discussions of the issue of declining productivity even though it may be a major part of the explanation.
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IPSOS is remain at an implied 60%.0
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RottenboRough..How much per annum does that simpleton get paid to do that..it is his onlY contribution to the HOC....decades of doing nothing and paid for it..0
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Oh dear - maybe the Tory members are out of line with the voters.TheScreamingEagles said:Britons don’t believe Brexit risks peace, poll shows - but Remain pulls ahead
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/britons-don-t-believe-brexit-risks-peace-poll-shows-but-remain-pulls-ahead-a3251021.html
"The most significant change since April is that Conservatives have gone from being marginally in favour of leaving to a clear 60 per cent saying they would vote Remain."0 -
Politcal reaction: yayTheScreamingEagles said:Britons don’t believe Brexit risks peace, poll shows - but Remain pulls ahead
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/britons-don-t-believe-brexit-risks-peace-poll-shows-but-remain-pulls-ahead-a3251021.html
Betting reaction: bollocks0 -
IPSOS MORI in the Standard says 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the EU.0
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We really do need that like button back.Charles said:
When my mentor was Lord Chancellor, he was crossing Westminster Great Hall fully robed, bewigged, etc with a mace carrier and assorted flunkies to carry his train, gloves, etc.rottenborough said:
State Opening. He's Lord Chancellor so he gets to prance about in stockings and so forth.Casino_Royale said:
Where?rottenborough said:Gove looking rather pleased with himself.
He saw a friend of his, Neil Marten, across the hall, shepherding a group of American tourists around the Palace.
He paused, raised one hand in the air in greeting and bellowed "Neil!"
And they all did.0 -
Not exactly earth shattering.0
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It's an almost universal truth that polls billed as dramatic aren't.MaxPB said:Not exactly earth shattering.
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Heh I am the oppositeWanderer said:
Politcal reaction: yayTheScreamingEagles said:Britons don’t believe Brexit risks peace, poll shows - but Remain pulls ahead
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/britons-don-t-believe-brexit-risks-peace-poll-shows-but-remain-pulls-ahead-a3251021.html
Betting reaction: bollocks
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Have they released the details behind the IPSOS poll?
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Was the last MORI 49/39?
If so, today's poll is:
Remain +6
Leave -20 -
Yes.MikeL said:Was the last MORI 49/39?
If so, today's poll is:
Remain +6
Leave -20 -
Shush you. Only PB Leavers speak for the Tory Party.felix said:
Oh dear - maybe the Tory members are out of line with the voters.TheScreamingEagles said:Britons don’t believe Brexit risks peace, poll shows - but Remain pulls ahead
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/britons-don-t-believe-brexit-risks-peace-poll-shows-but-remain-pulls-ahead-a3251021.html
"The most significant change since April is that Conservatives have gone from being marginally in favour of leaving to a clear 60 per cent saying they would vote Remain."0 -
So I was correct then: a big shift to Remain.MikeL said:Was the last MORI 49/39?
If so, today's poll is:
Remain +6
Leave -20 -
'embarrassing', 'doing Remain more harm than good', 'toxic', 'more hated than Heath', 'ratings in freefall', 'Remain need to keep him hidden', 'was supposed to be Remains great asset', 'everyone's just laughing at him', 'more hated than Blair'TheScreamingEagles said:Despite the doubts, today’s survey reveals the Remain campaign has pulled ahead to its biggest lead in the past three months — with 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the Eu
This is mainly due to a marked shift among Conservative supporters. The Tory swing suggests the Prime Minister’s intense campaigning is having a significant impact on his party’s followers.
Have I missed any?0 -
Wasn't there one that YouGov were ramping that had basically no movement from the one before last year?Richard_Nabavi said:
It's an almost universal truth that polls billed as dramatic aren't.MaxPB said:Not exactly earth shattering.
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The poll also found the Conservatives 36% are two points ahead of Labour 34 per cent, with Ukip on 10 and the Lib-Dems on eightDavid_Evershed said:IPSOS MORI in the Standard says 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the EU.
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No way are Labour as high as 34. No sign of it all in the elections at the start of the month.David_Evershed said:
The poll also found the Conservatives 36% are two points ahead of Labour 34 per cent, with Ukip on 10 and the Lib-Dems on eightDavid_Evershed said:IPSOS MORI in the Standard says 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the EU.
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Anecdote alertDavid_Evershed said:IPSOS MORI in the Standard says 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the EU.
I was canvassing with the Labour In campaign in inner London last weekend - our group recorded 200 contacts, 90% remain, 10% don't know AND NO LEAVE. NOT ONE. Street properties (ie not social housing), mostly young professional residents. But NO ONE for leave.
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Sounds like it is all over bar the shouting,. Outers truly stuffed.0
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Yes, I think so.MaxPB said:
Wasn't there one that YouGov were ramping that had basically no movement from the one before last year?Richard_Nabavi said:
It's an almost universal truth that polls billed as dramatic aren't.MaxPB said:Not exactly earth shattering.
This is potentially a significant shift, if confirmed by other polls, but it might just be noise.0 -
Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.0 -
I have an uncanny knack of placing my trading bets at the worst possible moment!0
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OT but Un-fucking-believable.
This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.0 -
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?CD13 said:Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.0 -
If that is the result I will be giving up on politics for good.Pulpstar said:
Life's too short, and I'm tired of caring and then being let down.
There's nothing in the future of the Conservative Party that excites me.
I'd far rather quietly live out my life with my wife, family and pets in the country.0 -
An aside on the one pagers from each campaign in the Electoral Commission leaflet sent to all households. The Remain argument is very pro-business. Remain gives businesses the freedom to compete and to invest.TheScreamingEagles said:Despite the doubts, today’s survey reveals the Remain campaign has pulled ahead to its biggest lead in the past three months — with 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the Eu
This is mainly due to a marked shift among Conservative supporters. The Tory swing suggests the Prime Minister’s intense campaigning is having a significant impact on his party’s followers.
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ORB had a 15 point lead that became 6 with turnout.0
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The huge discrepancies between the pollsters is the most entertaining bitDavid_Evershed said:
The poll also found the Conservatives 36% are two points ahead of Labour 34 per cent, with Ukip on 10 and the Lib-Dems on eightDavid_Evershed said:IPSOS MORI in the Standard says 55 per cent for staying in and 37 per cent for leaving the EU.
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So the phone/online divide continues. Ipsos-MORI has shown large Remain rises before.
Interesting, but it's far too soon to declare this the day the polls turned.0 -
Where are the posters who kept on quoting the poll of polls average?
Gone quiet for some reason.
*Innocent Face*0 -
Are the details of this online anywhere?Richard_Tyndall said:OT but Un-fucking-believable.
This Government is doing away with 30 years of environmental and archaeological protection introduced by Thatcher to make sure basic checks were done prior to development. Fucking savages. Forget the EU. This bung to their business friends is enough to make sure I never vote for the bastards again.0 -
Pulpstar said:
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?CD13 said:Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
Agreed. If we're in, we should be all the way in.
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What the Ipsos MORI subsidiary questions suggest is that Remain should increase their focus on the economy and tone down the security stuff.
Conversely, Leave need to find a better way either of neutralising the economic worries, or if they can't do that, at least find a better way of moving the debate on to more favourable ground for them (immigration, red tape).0 -
@stjohn I doubt it's any comfort but I turned green when I saw the MORI teaser tweet, for reasons that are likely to become apparent soon enough.0
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Agreed - would make my life much easierPulpstar said:
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?CD13 said:Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
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NoMarkHopkins said:Pulpstar said:
I think we should join the Euro post remain. Whats the point of being in Europe if we're going to lose money to the exchange desks every time we head off to Europe ?CD13 said:Post-referendum, I hope we get on with it.
Leave ... a new future with a few bumps in the road. Even more need to work together.
Remain ... political union, a European army, European decision-making, with one twenty seventh of the input. And hopefully no complaints from the Remainers that this wasn't what they voted for. Oh yes, it was.
Agreed. If we're in, we should be all the way in.0
