politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum will be decided by voters who don’t feel str

Slackbladder said:

Ben Page, Ipsos MORI ‏@benatipsosmori 1 min1 minute ago

Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!

'Interesting' poll klazon!!!

They are usually good polls for remain so I'm guessing a goodish poll for Leave.

If it turns out to be a sub MOE change I'm going to publicly waterboard him.

anothernick said:

stjohn said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-outcome-on-a-knife-edge-according-to-new-data-from-british-election-survey-a7034751.html

PB may be waiting for detailed figures before responding to this huge poll. I'm not!

At 3.8-3.85 Leave's price is as big as it's been for quite a while - at the same time that they are ahead in this huge poll after the "very likely to vote" filter is applied. The current Leave price looks great value to me.

I'm on!

If the "very likely to vote" data is based only on voters' answers it is likely to be unreliable. People always overstate their likelihood to vote, and those most likely to overstate are in groups C2DE, which are also, of course, those groups more likely to back leave. Turnout is always higher amongst ABC1 - this has been true in every election and referendum for decades, and was a key factor in the No victory in the Indyref.

May be the BES is large enough that someone can do a cross tab analysis of the AB/Elderly split. I recall this was discussed previously [i.e. where does the AB vote come from and will that be affected by an old/young split]?

I think it could be a good angle for a thread, but beyond my expertise to write.

MaxPB said:

There are also 1.7m underemployed people who are either temporarily employed or doing part time work that want full time permanent positions, this is down from 1.85m a year ago.

Still, no denying that this is a great set of figures again, so much for "brexit hits employment" like last month. I wonder how the chancellor will try to use these figures against the leave campaign. Alastair's response gives some insight, but when over half of all jobs created are going to EU migrants I'm not sure how well it would go down.

Yes, no doubt had unemployment been up, this would have been a pro-EU story as well. Just a different one.

In fact, whatever the numbers were, Osborne and the amateur spinners on here would have called it a pro-EU story.

Slackbladder said:

Ben Page, Ipsos MORI ‏@benatipsosmori 1 min1 minute ago

Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!

'Interesting' poll klazon!!!

You would think an "interesting" phone poll has a move to Leave? But more likely just poll hype and it's as-you-were (and an interesting supplemental about the EU and cat food).

Alastair's excellent article is being misunderstood (what a surprise). The point is that floating voters - the voters whom either campaign might have a chance of persuading to vote for them - are interested in different aspects of the question of EU membership than committed Leavers and Remainers.

Many of those passionate about what they see as the absolute need to leave the EU seem to find this rather simple point extremely difficult to understand. That's why they bang on about an 'EU Superstate', sovereignty, a possible Bill of Rights, the ECJ, and so on. These are of course crucially important issues to many of those who are already certain to vote Leave, but they are (almost be definition) of little salience to those who might yet be won over.

Trump will almost certainly beat Dubya's 12,034,676 votes in 2000 now (CA should do it on it's own with ~ 1 million Trump votes) currently on 11,230,677

AlastairMeeks said:

@Alanbrooke But wages are rising well ahead of inflation too.

I appreciate that you have a very truthy vision of the world, but try letting it collide with reality once in a while.

well ahead ? Over the last 10 years wages haven't risen that much, we are experiencing a period of catch back and the analysis has yet to be seen, but if there is a lump of annualised wages having to reflect the living wage, then it isn't true wage growth but legal fiat driving wages.

I've already had my first price increases from suppliers based on the living wage.

And as I keep pointing out your reality in London is very different from mine in the Midlands. Try broadening your horizons occasionally.

AlastairMeeks said:

@MaxPB And the rest of the jobs created? Who did the rest of the jobs go to?

The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.

So half of all new jobs going to 5% of the population is proportionally balanced?

Slackbladder said:

Ben Page, Ipsos MORI ‏@benatipsosmori 1 min1 minute ago

Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!

'Interesting' poll klazon!!!

It would be news and worthy of klaxonmania if a pollster said deadly dull poll en route. Strangely this never happens.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.

Oo-er

I see that Guido has an expose on Lab's Cat Smith over her election returns. This could easily turn into expenses part 2 with all parties having problems.

I must admit I do have a little sympathy for the politicos as the spending limit seems very low

Plato_Says said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/neiledwardlovat/status/732811629658791936

Does that graph correlate with people getting excited with 'phone polls?

The simple truth is that nothing has changed since the start of the campaign. Whether the migration numbers, the Obama intervention, the IMF, the £8m/week loss to every family scare, or the absurd 77m Turks about overwhelm the NHS story, the polls remain absolutely and resolutely static: and they point to something around 54-46.

Remain will likely win this time. And Leave will likely win in a decade when we vote again.

God, I hope so. This is killing me.

It's a bit nihilistic, but I probably won't live long enough to experience that - so it's less personal for me. I'm looking at this as protection of our country. Like owning land, we're merely custodians of it. Handing it over so obsequiously - and lying about it in a rigged campaign makes me so irked.

You don't think you'll be around in a decade?

;-(

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@MaxPB And the rest of the jobs created? Who did the rest of the jobs go to?

The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.

So half of all new jobs going to 5% of the population is proportionally balanced?

LOL

its Meekonomics

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.

Oo-er

Haven't there been 2 polls this week that showed a above MoE shift to Leave? If confirmed by a MORI phone poll that would qualify as "interesting"!

GarethoftheVale2 said:

I see that Guido has an expose on Lab's Cat Smith over her election returns. This could easily turn into expenses part 2 with all parties having problems.

I must admit I do have a little sympathy for the politicos as the spending limit seems very low

I think there will have less of public outcry, because they aren't spending our money (well they are a bit, but not as directly as expenses). It is mostly private donations and union money.

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.

What time is it out ?

I think that the first printed editions hit the streets around 11am so presumably at or around then? Unless they hold back for a later edition (does the standard still print later editions?)

The only thing I can think of is a phone poll with Leave within the MoE of Remain, so 2-3 points behind. That or Remain pulling out a huge lead of 20 points.

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.

Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.

Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.

Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.

Its all nominal though. As long as inflation stays low, a 2% nominal increase and inflation of 0.5% feels similar to 3.5% pay with inflation at 2%.

We've also had the introduction of statutory work place pensions since 2005 which I guess has diverted some money that would have gone to pay rises into pensions. Not good for the AWE figures but good for the long term.

No loser like a sore loser.......

https://www.rt.com/news/343282-eurovision-votes-revision-petition/

I don't know if anyone else has got this but the EU referendum voting guide dropped on my doormat yesterday from the Electoral Commission.

It including a double page spread from both campaigns.

The Remain one was professional, glossy with safer, stronger and better off in backed by all the big numbers from the CBI/Treasury etc. and some pictures of a smiling family. They have also now started to link the NHS to it.

The Leave one had far more text and detail (and no picture) but did major on one chance to take control, and emphasised the cost, migration, inability to do trade deals and "power" penalties of remaining in the EU.

I don't know how much effect it will have but it should mean that most people are now starting to become aware of the arguments.

FrancisUrquhart said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

I see that Guido has an expose on Lab's Cat Smith over her election returns. This could easily turn into expenses part 2 with all parties having problems.

I must admit I do have a little sympathy for the politicos as the spending limit seems very low

I think there will have less of public outcry, because they aren't spending our money (well they are a bit, but not as directly as expenses). It is mostly private donations and union money.

Equally, if 'all parties' are at it - there is much less incentive for them to throw sh*t at each other. Galling for minor parties such as mine that are miles below the limit but take real care to include everything carefully to make sure that we're doing the right thing.

chestnut said:

runnymede said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov's methodology change

We have made a slight change in our methodology since our previous poll. While our polls at the Scottish, Welsh and London elections were generally very accurate, one consistent flaw was that we had UKIP too high. Investigating this error appears to be related to the switch from weighting by party ID to weighting by past vote. Comparing our sample to the British Election Study people in our polls who voted for "establishment" parties like the Conservatives and Labour in 2015 were not likely enough to also identify with the party, people who voted for "challenger" parties like UKIP and the Greens in 2015 were too likely to identify strongly with them.

To address this we have added an extra weight by whether respondents generally identify with one of the main established parties, whether they identify with one of the smaller, newer parties, or whether they don't have any strong party identification. The impact of this is to slightly reduce the level of UKIP support in our voting intention figures and slightly increase support for Britain remaining in the European Union. In today's poll the change has increased Remain's lead by one point, from 3 points on our old weights to 4 points on our new weights.

As ever, we are keeping our methodology under constant review, and are actively looking at other areas such as how we deal with don't knows, how best to model likelihood to vote and keeping track of false recall in past vote.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/18/eu-referendum-remain-lead-four/

The herding process is starting early this year

Yougov
London Mayor FPTP: Con (-3.1) Lab (-1.2) Grn (+1.2) LD (+1.4) UKIP (+3.4) Oth (-1.6)
ScotCon: SNP(+1.5) Lab (-0.6), Con (-3) LD (-0.8) Oth (+2.9)
ScotReg: SNP (-0.7) Lab (-0.1) Con (-2.9) LD (+0.8) Grn (+2.4) UKIP (+2)
WalesCon: PC (+0.5) Lab (-1.7) Con (-2.1) LD (+0.3) UKIP (+3.5)
WalesList: PC (+0.8) Lab (-0.5) Con (+0.2) LD (+0.5) UKIP (+3.5) Oth (-6)
GE2015: Con (-3.8) Lab (+2.8) LD (+1.9) UKIP (-0.9) Grn (+1.2) Oth (-0.3)
EE2014: Con (-1.9) Lab (+0.6) LD (+2.1) UKIP (-0.5) Oth (-0.3)

They are always chasing the trend rather than ahead of it.

I can't see a trend?

Alanbrooke said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@MaxPB And the rest of the jobs created? Who did the rest of the jobs go to?

The idea that British workers are being crowded out of the workplace is lacking hard evidence. But I'm sure truthiness will trump statistics every time.

So half of all new jobs going to 5% of the population is proportionally balanced?

LOL

its Meekonomics

Along with letting our farming industry die as we can import it all, and telling everyone in rural areas to pay more or move to cities. It's an extremely metropolitan 'Let them eat quinoa' view.

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.

Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.

Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.

Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.

Lord Rose thinks it's good for us/him.

Good to see some good lines still in the cupboard for the 54th Antifrank referendum piece:

"With Leave’s condemnations of the EU having moved from forthright to Fourth Reich"

"Some of these arguments look tangential to the question of EU membership. Hell, some of these arguments are tangential to the question of EU membership." -
Yes, I don't sense a richness of practical, relevant and important bellwether examples of how the EU / ECJ binds us (or indeed much on how it helps us) that would have been an eye opener for me and actually given me some sense of the enormity they are on about.

Much of the EU debate sits very comfortably alongside Elf & Safety, bin emptying in Tunbridge Wells (or Tameside even, if you must), road cones and hotlines, plastic bag tax, the multiple daily claims of political correctness gone mad, the raging at every quango / NGO / charity, or the voicing of fears of everything going to the dogs expanded to the nth degree. I think if we look at the Brexiteers, it would probably be fair and uncontroversial to say that we find the type of people, often grumpy old men, who are highly sensitive to those little bits of grit in daily life, and would have pretty strong opinions on many of these other matters.

Sometimes the balance of wider public opinion has some empathy with grumpy old annoyance, and other times just thinks 'shut up and get over it'. And it is a 'Leave = empathy, Remain = shut up and get over it' gut feeling amongst the uncommitted that will drive quite a number of votes. For that reason, I don't think a silly, shouty, bad tempered debate, even when a fair proportion of that silliness comes from Remain, necessarily helps Leave, because it drives a 'Shut up and get over it' mentality.

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

Ben Page, Ipsos MORI ‏@benatipsosmori 1 min1 minute ago

Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!

'Interesting' poll klazon!!!

They are usually good polls for remain so I'm guessing a goodish poll for Leave.

If it turns out to be a sub MOE change I'm going to publicly waterboard him.

And we know what they say about an "interesting" poll result...

Twyman's law. If it is interesting it is usually wrong.

MaxPB said:

Another big moment for UK employment, for the first time since I can remember, private sector pay has overtaken public sector pay!

Huzzah for Dave and George.

Casino_Royale said:

I don't know if anyone else has got this but the EU referendum voting guide dropped on my doormat yesterday from the Electoral Commission.

It including a double page spread from both campaigns.

The Remain one was professional, glossy with safer, stronger and better off in backed by all the big numbers from the CBI/Treasury etc. and some pictures of a smiling family. They have also now started to link the NHS to it.

The Leave one had far more text and detail (and no picture) but did major on one chance to take control, and emphasised the cost, migration, inability to do trade deals and "power" penalties of remaining in the EU.

I don't know how much effect it will have but it should mean that most people are now starting to become aware of the arguments.

Yes, it was interesting. The Remain page definitely won in terms of appearance and punchiness - it uses colour photos, and two text colours (red and blue, with blue prominent), whereas the Leave page is dense text and (rather oddly) only uses one colour - red.

On the other hand, the Leave text was on-message in repeating the 'take control' line repeatedly.

You can see the two pages here:

http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/02868/guid-m__2868356a.jpg

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Last month's Ipsos Mori had REMAIN 10% ahead.

So my hunch is on the Remain lead down to 2%

It could also be a big swing to Remain. Or nothing.

Honestly, there's a special place in hell for pollsters that make us suffer like this.

I've been assured that is a poll that lives up to the hype.

@ScottyNational: Reshuffle: Sturgeon to announce new post of 'Scandals Minister' to consolidate daily SNP scandals into one area - 'Our busiest portfolio'

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

Ben Page, Ipsos MORI ‏@benatipsosmori 1 min1 minute ago

Our latest#euref poll out later in @standardnews - an interesting one!

'Interesting' poll klazon!!!

They are usually good polls for remain so I'm guessing a goodish poll for Leave.

If it turns out to be a sub MOE change I'm going to publicly waterboard him.

And we know what they say about an "interesting" poll result...

Twyman's law. If it is interesting it is usually wrong.

Unless it's an exit poll ?

The exit poll was wrong. Failed to predict a Tory majority.

Why didn't Ashdown and Campbell point that out? Entirely unnecessary hat/kilt-eating.

I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.

"My government is thoroughly pissed off to reveal these bogus poll numbers that indicate voters have totally lost their senses and are inviting armageddon on us all."

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mr Hosie was, after all, mooted to be leading a summer initiative targeting No voters in a drive to push the case for independence. Such a move is seen as vital to retaining the support of the many Yes voters who joined the SNP after the referendum. Whether the initiative – or Mr Hosie's leadership of it – survives remains to be seen.

Surely Hosie is the perfect candidate to lead a campaign advocating divorce...

Our Zoomer friends have been remarkably quiet about this story.

Is that because with 2 MPs shagging the same woman, it falls under the SNP policy of "not criticising group decisions"?

Only slavering cretins like you would care a jot. I personally do not care what they are doing as long as it is not criminal and they are doing their jobs properly. It has however totally f**ked them and it will be the long grass for both no doubt. Especially Hosie given his wife is Sturgeon's best pal.

I'm still dizzy from the suggestion that I might be Scotch Pee's friend.

Difficult to ascertain precisely why the tabloids considered there to have been no public interest in Spanky Whittingdale's antics but oodles of the stuff in the SNP shaggers. I'm sure it's complicated.

JackW said:

I think her majesty should open her Queens Speech by referencing this "interesting" poll.

"My government is thoroughly pissed off to reveal these bogus poll numbers that indicate voters have totally lost their senses and are inviting armageddon on us all."

Does the Queen bet on politics? What would be the constitutional position on this?

It was only yesterday that I actually watched the full video of Queenie taking about the rude Chinese...the first comment is actually the best...

"Can I present Commander Lucy D'Orsi, Gold Commander when the Chinese state visit..."

"Oh bad luck"

Legend...

tlg86 said:

Here we go.....

@OliverCooper: If Sadiq Khan has so many concerns about HS2 devastating Euston, did he air them when Labour proposed HS2 while he was Transport Minister?

tlg86 said:

Here we go.....

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/732861133720322048?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Totally bonkers to not link this directly to HS1.

Scott_P said:

tlg86 said:

Here we go.....

@OliverCooper: If Sadiq Khan has so many concerns about HS2 devastating Euston, did he air them when Labour proposed HS2 while he was Transport Minister?

Devastating ?

It would add to it, surely - As Eurostar has to St Pancras ?!

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.

Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.

Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.

Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.

Yes, but inflation was 2% in the days when UK wage growth was 3-4.5%.

I actually hate these stats; I want to see like-for-likes, and at different parts of the income spectrum.

For people earning £10-15,000 a year, the average increase was xx%
etc.

Yes, I think that's a fair point, but then again, I'm not sure the ONS have the ability to give us that level of detail and I'm not sure the government will want to point out their own policy failings for us.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well the Ipsos Mori poll isn't a below the margin of error change.

Oo-er

It's remarkable what the Chief Executive of Ipsos Mori will tell me when I threaten to waterboard him

TSE

Ignoring for now what the BES study actually said yesterday, I was interested in why you set such store by it. I remember you saying a few days ago that it was the one poll you trusted. Is that simply because if the large size of the poll or is there something in their methodology you particularly like?

In the past their (larger) samples a lot of the time ask the same people that they have previously polled, so you can see if there are genuine pattern shifts in the VI/supplementaries.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

Here we go.....

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/732861133720322048?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Totally bonkers to not link this directly to HS1.

Norman Foster produced concepts for linking everything a while back. But that would be silly...

Well I know the HS-Link required Camden Lock to be bulldozed which is why the government dropped it.

The other, easy concept is to just have an underground tunnel linking the two station concourses. People can walk for 6 minutes, they do it in airports all the time when transferring between terminals or from security to a distant departure gate.

@chestnut

I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:

Worker	Earnings
1		£1,000
2		£500
3		£400
4		£300
5		£200

Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:

Worker	Earnings
1		£1,100
2		£550
3		£440
4		£330
5		£220
6		£100
7		£100

Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!

If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.

This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.

rcs1000 said:

@chestnut

I find these statistics very misleading because they do not compare like-with-like. Let me give you an example. Imagine a country where there are 5 workers:

Worker	Earnings
1		£1,000
2		£500
3		£400
4		£300
5		£200

Said country also has two unemployed people. Now imagine that everyone gets a 10% pay-rise, and the two unemployed people get low-paying jobs. The table then becomes:

Worker	Earnings
1		£1,100
2		£550
3		£440
4		£330
5		£220
6		£100
7		£100

Despite everyone getting payrises, and unemployment disappearing, the median income has dropped by almost 20%!

If labour market participation rates increase, it tends to drag down 'productivity' and 'median income' statistics, even though every single person might have seen a pay rise.

This is why I think there should be a survey based system, and where we look at like-for-likes, rather than aggregated data.

Nice post Robert. The perils of aggregation...

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With employment rates at a new all-time high, unemployment rates at a ten year low and vacancy rates touching all-time highs, it is clear that British workers are being crowded out of the market place.

Honestly, sometimes Leavers are beyond parody.

Don't forget wages up 2% versus inflation of 0.5% shows the downward pressure on wages produced by all the nasty foreigners moving here.

Actually 2% wage growth is quite poor, historically UK wage growth has been around 3-4.5% YoY, it started to dip around 2005 and never recovered to those levels. I wonder why.

Yes, but inflation was 2% in the days when UK wage growth was 3-4.5%.

I actually hate these stats; I want to see like-for-likes, and at different parts of the income spectrum.

For people earning £10-15,000 a year, the average increase was xx%
etc.

Yes, I think that's a fair point, but then again, I'm not sure the ONS have the ability to give us that level of detail and I'm not sure the government will want to point out their own policy failings for us.

All this data is survey based. There's no reason why we - or Markit - couldn't derive this data ourselves. (Should we have the time and money to do so, of course.)

With which, I'm bowing out as I have a lot of work to do

Who has the time and wherewithal to do it though, I don't know how much utility there would be in the end.

Has has just been pointed out the last time Ben Page trailed a poll as interesting was in late 2014 when Ipsos Mori picked up a huge shift to the SNP.

Gulp.