politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After nearly a week without polls the sentiment on Betfair

The problem is that the betfair percentages haven't changed in response to any polling really. Even if you accept Mike's claims about phone polls being more accurate (which I don't think has any validity) then the phone polls have shown the Remain lead almost halving over the last few months with no apparent response from the betting fraternity.

I have always kind of believed that you should follow the money to get a good idea of what is happening but in this case the money seems to be ignoring any kind of movement in the polling at all.

EU referendum: More than 300 business leaders back a Brexit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/eu-referendum-more-than-300-business-leaders-back-a-brexit/

Very puzzling. This referendum feels to me like it is Leave's to lose. In reducing immigration they have by far the most accessible argument and one that Remain just cannot counter.

I think punters are in danger of seeing this referendum as being a re-run of the Indyref.

That might how it pans out, status quo wins, but I can't see turnout approaching Indyref levels, and the lower the turnout, the better it is for Leave.

O/T in order to have a momentary relief from the EU

This is a little different .

http://www.tech.london/news/worlds-first-sky-pool-to-bridge-apartments-in-london?utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=display&utm_content=outbrain_articles&utm_campaign=outbrain-uk-traffic

Are Labour going to repeat the Scottish Indy Ref mistake all over again - being on the wrong side of the argument, painted as stooges of a disliked establishment, and unable to recover afterwards?


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/15/labour-pro-eu-stance-brexit-is-recruitment-agent-for-ukip

Who would volunteer to be on a jury to decide this?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/senior-policewoman-suspended-after-spat-with-female-colleague-ov/

Sean_F said:

Most people bet on the basis of what they want to see happen, rather than what they think will happen. That's how bookies make their money.

For the second time this weekend (tho' to a different person): if you genuinely think that...why are you on a betting site?

SouthamObserver said:

Very puzzling. This referendum feels to me like it is Leave's to lose. In reducing immigration they have by far the most accessible argument and one that Remain just cannot counter.

and there has been so little focus on it so far....

viewcode said:

Sean_F said:

Most people bet on the basis of what they want to see happen, rather than what they think will happen. That's how bookies make their money.

For the second time this weekend (tho' to a different person): if you genuinely think that...why are you on a betting site?

Well if what Sean says is true, it would mean markets are often badly mispriced so lots of opportunities to make money.

Mortimer said:

Are Labour going to repeat the Scottish Indy Ref mistake all over again - being on the wrong side of the argument, painted as stooges of a disliked establishment, and unable to recover afterwards?


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/15/labour-pro-eu-stance-brexit-is-recruitment-agent-for-ukip

Except on EU ref Labour is on the side of most of its voters, it is the Tory leadership which is not

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

HYUFD said:

Yes I know you did not include Denmark in your list but that does not mean their opt-out can be ignored. In reality the others will effectively reject their Treaty commitments, none of their governments have shown the slightest inclination to join the Euro and given its recent history I doubt they ever will!

You do understand what happens legally if you reject treaty commitments don't you? It means that the treaty falls. So you are suggesting that the treaty that forms the basis for the whole of the EU should now be ignored or rejected by several of its signatories?

They will not explicitly reject it, just never bring it into force, they cannot, the Swedish voters for example are overwhelmingly opposed to the Euro

GeoffM said:

Moses_ said:

Tykejohnno said:

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP
Some of you think my #ProjectFear tweets about bears, orcs etc are over-the-top. But listen to these idiots.


Christopher Hope
‏@christopherhope
NEW Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/three-million-eu-citizens-in-the-uk-could-be-deported-if-britons/ …

That's utter bullshit, I mean come on deportation???

When WW3 starts won't we just intern them in camps rather than deport?

...in battery farms. We'll need to eat them when the food shortages start.

Arbeit macht Fry-ups?

More hilarity, I see!

The Telegraph headline: "Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests "

The Telegraph article:

Lord Keen of Elie, a Government minister, said: “As set out in the Government’s White Paper: ‘The process for withdrawing from the European Union’, published on 29 February, the withdrawal process is unprecedented.

“No country has ever used Article 50 – it is untested. There is a great deal of uncertainty about how it would work.

“UK citizens get the right to live and work in the other 27 member states from our membership of the EU.

“If the UK voted to leave the EU, the Government would do all it could to secure a positive outcome for the country, but there would be no requirement under EU law for these rights to be maintained.”

i.e. the Home Office suggested nothing of the sort (and was actually talking about UK citizens in other EU countries, but that's by the by). What the minister actually said is exactly what the Leavers tout as an advantage of Brexit - namely that it would be up to the government of the day (and for other EU governments, in respect of UK citizens) to decide, since EU law would no longer apply. That's kinda the idea of Brexit, isn't it?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Mortimer said:

Are Labour going to repeat the Scottish Indy Ref mistake all over again - being on the wrong side of the argument, painted as stooges of a disliked establishment, and unable to recover afterwards?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/15/labour-pro-eu-stance-brexit-is-recruitment-agent-for-ukip

"Vote Leave chair says by taking position against Brexit the party shows voters worried about immigration that it does not care"

Corbyn is quite open about the fact that he does not care about how many more migrants there are. When the debate fully focuses on immigration it could be electoral suicide for Labour.

Most of the Labour voters who were most concerned about immigration are already in UKIP, Labour voters are now more middle class and ethnic minority than before

Richard_Nabavi said:

More hilarity, I see!

The Telegraph headline: "Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests "

The Telegraph article:

Lord Keen of Elie, a Government minister, said: “As set out in the Government’s White Paper: ‘The process for withdrawing from the European Union’, published on 29 February, the withdrawal process is unprecedented.

“No country has ever used Article 50 – it is untested. There is a great deal of uncertainty about how it would work.

“UK citizens get the right to live and work in the other 27 member states from our membership of the EU.

“If the UK voted to leave the EU, the Government would do all it could to secure a positive outcome for the country, but there would be no requirement under EU law for these rights to be maintained.”

i.e. the Home Office suggested nothing of the sort (and was actually talking about UK citizens in other EU countries, but that's by the by). What the minister actually said is exactly what the Leavers tout as an advantage of Brexit - namely that it would be up to the government of the day (and for other EU governments, in respect of UK citizens) to decide, since EU law would no longer apply. That's kinda the idea of Brexit, isn't it?

Yes,yes all very good but please can you tell us when WW3 is to start. As I've previously mentioned I'm a bit busy in early July and have a dental appointment on the 12th so anytime after mid July would be ideal.

Moses_ said:

Yes,yes all very good but please can you tell us when WW3 is to start. As I've previously mentioned I'm a bit busy in early July and have a dental appointment on the 12th so anytime after mid July would be ideal.

You need to ask the newspapers. They made up the story. Presumably they are pencilling in the mass deportation they invented first

FrancisUrquhart said:

Somebody is for the high jump after leaving a training device at man utd!

Must be a REMAIN supporter!

Did another 2 hours' leafleting for Vote Leave this morning, as I have every Saturday and Sunday for the last two months. Have most people received literature from both sides (excluding the Government pamphlet)?

Richard_Tyndall said:

No they didn't. Cameron did then dumped it when he saw the adverse reaction. Unless of course you believe that the Guardian and the Times are in secret cahoots with the Leave campaign.

So you keep saying, with zero evidence. As I said before, I go by what politicians say, not by what newspapers looking to sell copies wrongly claim they are about to say, or indeed claim they have said, such as 'Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit'' which the very same article shows is garbage.

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

HYUFD said:

Yes I know you did not include Denmark in your list but that does not mean their opt-out can be ignored. In reality the others will effectively reject their Treaty commitments, none of their governments have shown the slightest inclination to join the Euro and given its recent history I doubt they ever will!

You do understand what happens legally if you reject treaty commitments don't you? It means that the treaty falls. So you are suggesting that the treaty that forms the basis for the whole of the EU should now be ignored or rejected by several of its signatories?

They will not explicitly reject it, just never bring it into force, they cannot, the Swedish voters for example are overwhelmingly opposed to the Euro

The two problems with that scenario being that the EU cannot afford to go on ignoring it forever and that, more importantly, it only takes a case at the ECJ to bring it to a head. The Euro committed countries don't have a legal leg to stand on.

The EU is not going to bring a case to the ECJ demanding these countries join the Euro, it is not realistic, would be ignored and if anything would push them toward the exit door themselves!

Wanderer said:

RoyalBlue said:

Did another 2 hours' leafleting for Vote Leave this morning, as I have every Saturday and Sunday for the last two months. Have most people received literature from both sides (excluding the Government pamphlet)?

No

Very coy! Which side have you received leaflets from if any?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Moses_ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

More hilarity, I see!

The Telegraph headline: "Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests "

The Telegraph article:

Lord Keen of Elie, a Government minister, said: “As set out in the Government’s White Paper: ‘The process for withdrawing from the European Union’, published on 29 February, the withdrawal process is unprecedented.

“No country has ever used Article 50 – it is untested. There is a great deal of uncertainty about how it would work.

“UK citizens get the right to live and work in the other 27 member states from our membership of the EU.

“If the UK voted to leave the EU, the Government would do all it could to secure a positive outcome for the country, but there would be no requirement under EU law for these rights to be maintained.”

i.e. the Home Office suggested nothing of the sort (and was actually talking about UK citizens in other EU countries, but that's by the by). What the minister actually said is exactly what the Leavers tout as an advantage of Brexit - namely that it would be up to the government of the day (and for other EU governments, in respect of UK citizens) to decide, since EU law would no longer apply. That's kinda the idea of Brexit, isn't it?

Yes,yes all very good but please can you tell us when WW3 is to start. As I've previously mentioned I'm a bit busy in early July and have a dental appointment on the 12th so anytime after mid July would be ideal.

You need to ask the newspapers. They made up the story.

No they didn't. Cameron did then dumped it when he saw the adverse reaction. Unless of course you believe that the Guardian and the Times are in secret cahoots with the Leave campaign.

It's not a loony conspiracy theory when it's proposed by Remainers remember.

RoyalBlue said:

Did another 2 hours' leafleting for Vote Leave this morning, as I have every Saturday and Sunday for the last two months. Have most people received literature from both sides (excluding the Government pamphlet)?

Wiltshire... Received both

RoyalBlue said:

Wanderer said:

RoyalBlue said:

Did another 2 hours' leafleting for Vote Leave this morning, as I have every Saturday and Sunday for the last two months. Have most people received literature from both sides (excluding the Government pamphlet)?

No

Very coy! Which side have you received leaflets from if any?

The only thing I've received is the Government leaflet.

Good evening all.

I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?

This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.

O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......

Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........

Viceroy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Very puzzling. This referendum feels to me like it is Leave's to lose. In reducing immigration they have by far the most accessible argument and one that Remain just cannot counter.

Isn't there talk that Leave are keeping their powder dry and that will be near the end of the campaign? I certainly would use such a tactic: at the moment simply keep rebutting and laughing at Remain's terribly over the top scare stories which are going through one ear and out of the other (as shown by the polling).

It reminds me of the Indyref in Scotland how the polls starting moving towards Independence in the final weeks in the face of endless Unionist bs stories. In the end, the Unionists fell back on the emotional arguments which saved the day... a problem for Remain is that there is no emotional argument for Remain.

And perhaps even more crucially, Better Together offered 'The Vow'; which enabled people to vote 'No' with a clear conscience. I don't see how a 'Vow' can be pulled out by Cameron - Europe can't and won't stump up any serious concessions, and anything 'homegrown' would simply beg the question of why it wasn't done before.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Mortimer said:

Are Labour going to repeat the Scottish Indy Ref mistake all over again - being on the wrong side of the argument, painted as stooges of a disliked establishment, and unable to recover afterwards?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/15/labour-pro-eu-stance-brexit-is-recruitment-agent-for-ukip

"Vote Leave chair says by taking position against Brexit the party shows voters worried about immigration that it does not care"

Corbyn is quite open about the fact that he does not care about how many more migrants there are. When the debate fully focuses on immigration it could be electoral suicide for Labour.

Most of the Labour voters who were most concerned about immigration are already in UKIP, Labour voters are now more middle class and ethnic minority than before

Not what the Yougov data from June 2015 shows. Class DE was 2 Labour for every 1 UKIP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015#Voter_demographics

Labour won 31% of the vote, UKIP 12%. Labour won 31% of C2s, so about their national voteshare. UKIP won 12% nationally and 17% of C2s so well above its national voteshare. UKIP also won 18% of DEs while Labour won 37% of DEs. DEs are more likely to be newly arrived immigrants or on welfare than C2s so less concerned by immigration so probably less room to squeeze but as I said most of those most concerned about immigration will already have moved, other Labour voters in those groups clearly put other concerns first

RoyalBlue said:

Did another 2 hours' leafleting for Vote Leave this morning, as I have every Saturday and Sunday for the last two months. Have most people received literature from both sides (excluding the Government pamphlet)?

Nothing from either side. Have yet to see any local sign at all that the referendum is happening.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Good evening all.

I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?

This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.

O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......

Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........

I hope those 16 varieties of roses are all white?

Racist REMAINER!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Good evening all.

I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?

This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.

O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......

Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........

I hope those 16 varieties of roses are all white?

Racist REMAINER!

The White Rose of Yorkshire old bean.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Good evening all.

I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?

This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.

O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......

Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........

I hope those 16 varieties of roses are all white?

Racist REMAINER!

The White Rose of Yorkshire old bean.

Yeah, yeah - we believe you

Luckyguy1983 said:

Viceroy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Very puzzling. This referendum feels to me like it is Leave's to lose. In reducing immigration they have by far the most accessible argument and one that Remain just cannot counter.

Isn't there talk that Leave are keeping their powder dry and that will be near the end of the campaign? I certainly would use such a tactic: at the moment simply keep rebutting and laughing at Remain's terribly over the top scare stories which are going through one ear and out of the other (as shown by the polling).

It reminds me of the Indyref in Scotland how the polls starting moving towards Independence in the final weeks in the face of endless Unionist bs stories. In the end, the Unionists fell back on the emotional arguments which saved the day... a problem for Remain is that there is no emotional argument for Remain.

And perhaps even more crucially, Better Together offered 'The Vow'; which enabled people to vote 'No' with a clear conscience. I don't see how a 'Vow' can be pulled out by Cameron - Europe can't and won't stump up any serious concessions, and anything 'homegrown' would simply beg the question of why it wasn't done before.

Compare.
Scots referendum. The No (IN) campaign recognised that Labour voters were key and appointed Labour's Alistair Darling as its front man. Darling had a 56% trust rating with SLAB voters in the week before the vote.

European referendum. The biggest group of voters for REMAIN (IN) is going to come from Labour voters. REMAIN has had Cameron fronting REMAIN for 11 weeks. Cameron has an 11% trust rating with Labour voters.

Anyone explain the logic?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Why? When you consider how many.other wild and unsupportable claims he has made.

Yes, exactly. You think he must have made such a claim, because of your prejudice against him.

I'm a simpler sort of chap. Given the opportunity, as here, to read the actual words he said, I rely on that, not on third-party accounts of what he allegedly might have been about to say.

This is a good approach, I recommend it. If more people followed it, they wouldn't get so excited over nonsense.

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

HYUFD said:

Yes I know you did not include Denmark in your list but that does not mean their opt-out can be ignored. In reality the others will effectively reject their Treaty commitments, none of their governments have shown the slightest inclination to join the Euro and given its recent history I doubt they ever will!

You do understand what happens legally if you reject treaty commitments don't you? It means that the treaty falls. So you are suggesting that the treaty that forms the basis for the whole of the EU should now be ignored or rejected by several of its signatories?

They will not explicitly reject it, just never bring it into force, they cannot, the Swedish voters for example are overwhelmingly opposed to the Euro

The two problems with that scenario being that the EU cannot afford to go on ignoring it forever and that, more importantly, it only takes a case at the ECJ to bring it to a head. The Euro committed countries don't have a legal leg to stand on.

The EU is not going to bring a case to the ECJ demanding these countries join the Euro, it is not realistic, would be ignored and if anything would push them toward the exit door themselves!

Sorry HYUFD but it gets really tiring having to educate you and Richard on how the EU works. Most cases before the ECJ are not bought by the EU. They are bought by individual EU citizens. As I mentioned the other day the ECJ is not the political court it's detractors claim. But the way it is setup and the guidelines it follows give it the impression of being such because it's main aim.is to enforce the provisions if the treaties. The EU could not stop it hearing a case even if they wanted to.

I await with interest a case to be brought by an arch Federalist Swede demanding his country joins the Euro with immediate effect!

It won't be. It will be brought by a German or Belgian businessman complaining about the unfair advantage that a Swedish company is enjoying being outside the Eurozone. The pressure isn't there yet but it will come.

I'm not a soccer fan per se, but am loving a book called Soccernomics. It's similar to sabermetrics about baseball I think.

It contains a chapter called 'Why England loses'. It can be summed up as 'you overvalue your football heritage and undervalue the benefits of innovation'.

Is that a fair assessment?

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

HYUFD said:

Yes I know you did not include Denmark in your list but that does not mean their opt-out can be ignored. In reality the others will effectively reject their Treaty commitments, none of their governments have shown the slightest inclination to join the Euro and given its recent history I doubt they ever will!

You do understand what happens legally if you reject treaty commitments don't you? It means that the treaty falls. So you are suggesting that the treaty that forms the basis for the whole of the EU should now be ignored or rejected by several of its signatories?

They will not explicitly reject it, just never bring it into force, they cannot, the Swedish voters for example are overwhelmingly opposed to the Euro

The two problems with that scenario being that the EU cannot afford to go on ignoring it forever and that, more importantly, it only takes a case at the ECJ to bring it to a head. The Euro committed countries don't have a legal leg to stand on.

The EU is not going to bring a case to the ECJ demanding these countries join the Euro, it is not realistic, would be ignored and if anything would push them toward the exit door themselves!

Sorry HYUFD but it gets really tiring having to educate you and Richard on how the EU works. Most cases before the ECJ are not bought by the EU. They are bought by individual EU citizens. As I mentioned the other day the ECJ is not the political court it's detractors claim. But the way it is setup and the guidelines it follows give it the impression of being such because it's main aim.is to enforce the provisions if the treaties. The EU could not stop it hearing a case even if they wanted to.

I await with interest a case to be brought by an arch Federalist Swede demanding his country joins the Euro with immediate effect!

It won't be. It will be brought by a German or Belgian businessman complaining about the unfair advantage that a Swedish company is enjoying being outside the Eurozone. The pressure isn't there yet but it will come.

What unfair advantage? If anything the Germans are turning against the Eurozone themselves with the rise of the AfD!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Good evening all.

I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?

This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.

O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......

Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........

I hope those 16 varieties of roses are all white?

Racist REMAINER!

The White Rose of Yorkshire old bean.

Well, the main white one is that superb climber - Mme Alfred Carriere - and on the opposite trellis I have a red climber - Rosa Moyesi.

Were I to describe my roses - and indeed my garden more generally - the thread would be more interesting (to me, anyway!) but would have morphed into Gardener's World.

Mind you, I'm prettier than Monty Don, have just as nice a dog, a garden much more like that of most ordinary people .... And can talk the hind legs off a donkey!

Why I haven't been called by the BBC is a mystery! Tips on gardening, interspersed with comments on City crooks and politics and advice on public etiquette and shoes. What's not to love?!

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Good evening all.

I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?

This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.

O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......

Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........

I hope those 16 varieties of roses are all white?

Racist REMAINER!

The White Rose of Yorkshire old bean.

Well, the main white one is that superb climber - Mme Alfred Carriere - and on the opposite trellis I have a red climber - Rosa Moyesi.

Were I to describe my roses - and indeed my garden more generally - the thread would be more interesting (to me, anyway!) but would have morphed into Gardener's World.

Mind you, I'm prettier than Monty Don, have just as nice a dog, a garden much more like that of most ordinary people .... And can talk the hind legs off a donkey!

Why I haven't been called by the BBC is a mystery! Tips on gardening, interspersed with comments on City crooks and politics and advice on public etiquette and shoes. What's not to love?!

You can talk about what you want to talk about.

My hayfever precludes me from being a gardener.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Viceroy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Very puzzling. This referendum feels to me like it is Leave's to lose. In reducing immigration they have by far the most accessible argument and one that Remain just cannot counter.

Isn't there talk that Leave are keeping their powder dry and that will be near the end of the campaign? I certainly would use such a tactic: at the moment simply keep rebutting and laughing at Remain's terribly over the top scare stories which are going through one ear and out of the other (as shown by the polling).

It reminds me of the Indyref in Scotland how the polls starting moving towards Independence in the final weeks in the face of endless Unionist bs stories. In the end, the Unionists fell back on the emotional arguments which saved the day... a problem for Remain is that there is no emotional argument for Remain.

And perhaps even more crucially, Better Together offered 'The Vow'; which enabled people to vote 'No' with a clear conscience. I don't see how a 'Vow' can be pulled out by Cameron - Europe can't and won't stump up any serious concessions, and anything 'homegrown' would simply beg the question of why it wasn't done before.

Compare.
Scots referendum. The No (IN) campaign recognised that Labour voters were key and appointed Labour's Alistair Darling as its front man. Darling had a 56% trust rating with SLAB voters in the week before the vote.

European referendum. The biggest group of voters for REMAIN (IN) is going to come from Labour voters. REMAIN has had Cameron fronting REMAIN for 11 weeks. Cameron has an 11% trust rating with Labour voters.

Anyone explain the logic?

Remain cannot win with Labour voters alone, it has to get at least 35-40% of Tory voters + which is why it needs Cameron. In Scotland Tory voters were overwhelmingly for the Union, it needed a majority of Labour voters too which was why Darling fronted the campaign

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/731267847037562880

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tim_B said:

I'm not a soccer fan per se, but am loving a book called Soccernomics. It's similar to sabermetrics about baseball I think.

It contains a chapter called 'Why England loses'. It can be summed up as 'you overvalue your football heritage and undervalue the benefits of innovation'.

Is that a fair assessment?

Americans playing FOOTball with their hands

You keep harping on about this - both codes of rugby football (union and league) are played with the hands, as is Aussie rules football.

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Good evening all.

I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?

This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.

O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......

Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........

I hope those 16 varieties of roses are all white?

Racist REMAINER!

The White Rose of Yorkshire old bean.

Yeah, yeah - we believe you

Is Kippers and Leavers who are the real racists. See below

https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/731937712152907776

Calling Leavers racist eh? Good luck with making friends on 24/6

Oh God, you need to read the context of my post.

Sunil jokingly called me a Racist Remainer because of my White Rose post, and I replied in kind.

Try reading and before opening your gob, and sticking your feet in there, and deciding to shoot said feet.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

kle4 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Viceroy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Very puzzling. This referendum feels to me like it is Leave's to lose. In reducing immigration they have by far the most accessible argument and one that Remain just cannot counter.

Isn't there talk that Leave are keeping their powder dry and that will be near the end of the campaign? I certainly would use such a tactic: at the moment simply keep rebutting and laughing at Remain's terribly over the top scare stories which are going through one ear and out of the other (as shown by the polling).

It reminds me of the Indyref in Scotland how the polls starting moving towards Independence in the final weeks in the face of endless Unionist bs stories. In the end, the Unionists fell back on the emotional arguments which saved the day... a problem for Remain is that there is no emotional argument for Remain.

And perhaps even more crucially, Better Together offered 'The Vow'; which enabled people to vote 'No' with a clear conscience. I don't see how a 'Vow' can be pulled out by Cameron - Europe can't and won't stump up any serious concessions, and anything 'homegrown' would simply beg the question of why it wasn't done before.

Compare.
Scots referendum. The No (IN) campaign recognised that Labour voters were key and appointed Labour's Alistair Darling as its front man. Darling had a 56% trust rating with SLAB voters in the week before the vote.

European referendum. The biggest group of voters for REMAIN (IN) is going to come from Labour voters. REMAIN has had Cameron fronting REMAIN for 11 weeks. Cameron has an 11% trust rating with Labour voters.

Anyone explain the logic?

Who from Labour is stepping up? They have their own In campaign, I believe, but I've heard nothing about it.

I do not know but compare Cameron's 11% with GB Labour voters with the 33% of SLAB voters Cameron had their trust on for his advice in the Scots referendum in 2014......

Maybe SLAB voters just liked his surname?

Khan will be playing a big role for London's Labour In campaign

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Good evening all.

I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?

This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.

O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......

Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........

I hope those 16 varieties of roses are all white?

Racist REMAINER!

The White Rose of Yorkshire old bean.

Yeah, yeah - we believe you

Is Kippers and Leavers who are the real racists. See below

https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/731937712152907776

Calling Leavers racist eh? Good luck with making friends on 24/6

Oh God, you need to read the context of my post.

Sunil jokingly called me a Racist Remainer because of my White Rose post, and I replied in kind.

Try reading and before opening your gob, and sticking your feet in there, and deciding to shoot said feet.

Yeah, I read it, you showed a tweet from a Ukip bloke and a picture of a black person and said Ukip and Leavers are racist. Oh, but it was a joke, because you've got a kooky sense of humour. You want it both ways mate, you're happy to wave the racist card about if it suits you.

Don't be an idiot, Sunil, who is a Leaver initially joked about Racist Remainers.

Tim_B said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tim_B said:

I'm not a soccer fan per se, but am loving a book called Soccernomics. It's similar to sabermetrics about baseball I think.

It contains a chapter called 'Why England loses'. It can be summed up as 'you overvalue your football heritage and undervalue the benefits of innovation'.

Is that a fair assessment?

Read the book a few years ago, deeply flawed in general.

That's not helpful - for example?

Some of the regression analysis is flawed.

It's 5 years since I read it so I can't pull an example out, but although quite an enjoyable reason most of their modelling isnt very good or thorough enough. In comparison the original freakonomics book is all tales of peer reviewed research (and even then some is debatable, but you can go & actually read the models in the academic literature).