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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After nearly a week without polls the sentiment on Betfair
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After nearly a week without polls the sentiment on Betfair is moving back to REMAIN
From a straightforward trading perspective there is a good reason to back IN at the moment. The third week of the month is when we get the phone polls which have been showing very solid IN leads. For whatever reason they all seem to come together and I’m expecting three or perhaps four this coming week.
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I have always kind of believed that you should follow the money to get a good idea of what is happening but in this case the money seems to be ignoring any kind of movement in the polling at all.
Second like remain
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/eu-referendum-more-than-300-business-leaders-back-a-brexit/
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Yes, the EU already has clear plans for dividing itself into fast and slow lanes. The latter will be called 'Associate members'.
But -
1) these Associate members will not have a looser relationship with the EU than they do now.
2) they will be expected to move towards joining the federal core, just at a slower pace.
3) they will also include the EEA countries - yes that's right, the EU wants to fold them in also.
The Prime Minister went to Iceland recently and, remarkably, was arguing to the Icelanders to join as Associate members.
Some of you think my #ProjectFear tweets about bears, orcs etc are over-the-top. But listen to these idiots.
Christopher Hope
@christopherhope
NEW Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/three-million-eu-citizens-in-the-uk-could-be-deported-if-britons/ …
That might how it pans out, status quo wins, but I can't see turnout approaching Indyref levels, and the lower the turnout, the better it is for Leave.
This is a little different .
http://www.tech.london/news/worlds-first-sky-pool-to-bridge-apartments-in-london?utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=display&utm_content=outbrain_articles&utm_campaign=outbrain-uk-traffic
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/15/labour-pro-eu-stance-brexit-is-recruitment-agent-for-ukip
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/senior-policewoman-suspended-after-spat-with-female-colleague-ov/
It reminds me of the Indyref in Scotland how the polls starting moving towards Independence in the final weeks in the face of endless Unionist bs stories. In the end, the Unionists fell back on the emotional arguments which saved the day... a problem for Remain is that there is no emotional argument for Remain.
When WW3 starts won't we just intern them in camps rather than deport?
https://twitter.com/CityAM/status/731963145044922370
...and with that I'll say goodnight.
Corbyn is quite open about the fact that he does not care about how many more migrants there are. When the debate fully focuses on immigration it could be electoral suicide for Labour.
...as the answer to a question in your pub quiz Politics round.
The Telegraph headline: "Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests "
The Telegraph article:
Lord Keen of Elie, a Government minister, said: “As set out in the Government’s White Paper: ‘The process for withdrawing from the European Union’, published on 29 February, the withdrawal process is unprecedented.
“No country has ever used Article 50 – it is untested. There is a great deal of uncertainty about how it would work.
“UK citizens get the right to live and work in the other 27 member states from our membership of the EU.
“If the UK voted to leave the EU, the Government would do all it could to secure a positive outcome for the country, but there would be no requirement under EU law for these rights to be maintained.”
i.e. the Home Office suggested nothing of the sort (and was actually talking about UK citizens in other EU countries, but that's by the by). What the minister actually said is exactly what the Leavers tout as an advantage of Brexit - namely that it would be up to the government of the day (and for other EU governments, in respect of UK citizens) to decide, since EU law would no longer apply. That's kinda the idea of Brexit, isn't it?
Bob did you make sure you picked up all those fake bombs after the training exercise as we wouldn't want a security alert...Yes boss...sits down to watch the man utd game on sky...did I pick that one up out the bogs...Can't remember....yeah sure I did...oh look security alert at old Trafford wonder what has gone on there then....ooohhhhhhh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015#Voter_demographics
Ok I'm free on the 16th would that suit? Would you prefer a Morning or afternoon declaration of nuclear holocaust or can we just take that as read?
I know you have some wild and fanciful ideas but that really is beyond belief. You have become a parody of yourself.
The wild and fanciful idea here is that Cameron would make such an obviously counter-productive claim. which is completely unsupported by his actual speech. I mean, for heaven's sake, get a grip!
I managed to go through my entire time at school studying history with barely a mention of Hitler, there being many many period of fascinating history to learn about, and now you can barely read the paper or switch on the radio without some idiot politician referring to him. Is there something in the water at Westminster?
This referendum is beginning to make me lose the will to live. Both campaigns are utter shite. If only they could both lose.
O/T HMQ's Birthday celebrations on ITV from Windsor is well worth watching. Some superb horsemanship and some bizarrely entrancing acts: Switzerland's Top Secret Drummers, for instance......
Also O/T the roses in my garden - I have 16 varieties - are full of buds and beginning to flower. It is going to be a wonderful year for them........
Meanwhile in the real world the Labour paper the Mirror is running an article from Cameron to encourage Labour people to vote for REMAIN. Cameron is trusted by just 11% of Labour voters. (Yougov). Great news for LEAVE.
Between you and Mr Tyndall it's making the diary arrangements for WW3 increasingly difficult. I guess you must think nuclear holocaust's can just be arranged at a drop of a hat. Not to worry, will check with Dave and get back to you
Laters.
Scots referendum. The No (IN) campaign recognised that Labour voters were key and appointed Labour's Alistair Darling as its front man. Darling had a 56% trust rating with SLAB voters in the week before the vote.
European referendum. The biggest group of voters for REMAIN (IN) is going to come from Labour voters. REMAIN has had Cameron fronting REMAIN for 11 weeks. Cameron has an 11% trust rating with Labour voters.
Anyone explain the logic?
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/731937712152907776
I'm a simpler sort of chap. Given the opportunity, as here, to read the actual words he said, I rely on that, not on third-party accounts of what he allegedly might have been about to say.
This is a good approach, I recommend it. If more people followed it, they wouldn't get so excited over nonsense.
It contains a chapter called 'Why England loses'. It can be summed up as 'you overvalue your football heritage and undervalue the benefits of innovation'.
Is that a fair assessment?
Edit: Sorry, 21 years.
Were I to describe my roses - and indeed my garden more generally - the thread would be more interesting (to me, anyway!) but would have morphed into Gardener's World.
Mind you, I'm prettier than Monty Don, have just as nice a dog, a garden much more like that of most ordinary people .... And can talk the hind legs off a donkey!
Why I haven't been called by the BBC is a mystery! Tips on gardening, interspersed with comments on City crooks and politics and advice on public etiquette and shoes. What's not to love?!
Maybe SLAB voters just liked his surname?
My hayfever precludes me from being a gardener.
Some of the regression analysis is flawed.
We try our very best but we're not very good at football.
Sunil jokingly called me a Racist Remainer because of my White Rose post, and I replied in kind.
Try reading and before opening your gob, and sticking your feet in there, and deciding to shoot said feet.
The woman in question couldn't act to save her life, in any event...