politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and
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There is an alternative theory: most Eurozone countries are in dire fiscal straits and increasing spending on the military is practically impossible.MP_SE said:If Europe was really at risk of attack from Russia then you would expect most European countries to actually comply with the NATO target of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defence. Very few European countries comply with the target therefore it is safe to assume the risk is minimal.
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Remember the time when TSE was on the leave side.malcolmg said:
Who TSE or CameronTykejohnno said:
He's a laughing stock.chestnut said:
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!Tykejohnno said:0 -
So, if we forced them to pay above the market price for steel, they would be in a better position.Speedy said:Meanwhile the Car Industry appears to be under threat:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729423019945435136
Well, it's a view.0 -
Entirely OT and several years behind the curve, but The Americans is the best TV series I've binge watched since Dexter.0
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Who TSE or CameronTykejohnno said:
He's a laughing stock.chestnut said:
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!Tykejohnno said:0 -
How pathetic can you getAlastairMeeks said:
You cannot compartmentalise international relations in that way. Sanctions against Russia are undertaken at an EU level, for example.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Our NATO membership is NOT at stake on June 23rd.AlastairMeeks said:
So the correct action is to make the current generation of Western leaders weaker, more compromised and more pusillanimous? Really?Charles said:
Vladimir Putin won't be around for ever.AlastairMeeks said:
Why do you think that Vladimir Putin is keen on Britain leaving? He sees opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
Curiously enough, we managed to avoid WWIII as a member of NATO for almost 25 years prior to our membership of the EEC, and that was during the greatest flashpoint of the Cuban Missile Crisis where there over a million Soviet troops facing off against us in Eastern Europe.AlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
I think we (and Europe) will be ok.
He's an opportunistic thug, faced by a historically weak generation of compromised and pusillanimous Western leaders.
Brexit is bigger than Putin.0 -
I see the Conservative party is making itself look stupid again.
Or should that be exposing its stupidity again.
Perhaps that explains why its just been beaten by a superannuated Dave Spart and why the LibDems are reviving in southern England.
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OUT , against all Remain nutters like Cameron. How do these idiots sleep at night.GIN1138 said:
Evening Malc!malcolmg said:
Dear Dear how the mighty have fallen , now just a Tory mouthpiece spouting lies and propagandaAlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
Are you for IN or OUT? Or maybe your for shake it all about?
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Pathetic is dismissing an 8/1 bet out of hand that comes home that night.malcolmg said:
How pathetic can you getAlastairMeeks said:
You cannot compartmentalise international relations in that way. Sanctions against Russia are undertaken at an EU level, for example.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Our NATO membership is NOT at stake on June 23rd.AlastairMeeks said:
So the correct action is to make the current generation of Western leaders weaker, more compromised and more pusillanimous? Really?Charles said:
Vladimir Putin won't be around for ever.AlastairMeeks said:
Why do you think that Vladimir Putin is keen on Britain leaving? He sees opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
Curiously enough, we managed to avoid WWIII as a member of NATO for almost 25 years prior to our membership of the EEC, and that was during the greatest flashpoint of the Cuban Missile Crisis where there over a million Soviet troops facing off against us in Eastern Europe.AlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
I think we (and Europe) will be ok.
He's an opportunistic thug, faced by a historically weak generation of compromised and pusillanimous Western leaders.
Brexit is bigger than Putin.0 -
It is TSETheScreamingEagles said:
That tweet exchange is three years old.Plato_Says said:0 -
Except they wouldn't increase military spending to the levels asked for by the US even when they weren't in dire fiscal straits. Basically they want the US to protect them and aren't willing to stump up themselves to cover part of the cost.rcs1000 said:
There is an alternative theory: most Eurozone countries are in dire fiscal straits and increasing spending on the military is practically impossible.MP_SE said:If Europe was really at risk of attack from Russia then you would expect most European countries to actually comply with the NATO target of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defence. Very few European countries comply with the target therefore it is safe to assume the risk is minimal.
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Not seen that, is it on Netflix or Amazon?Mortimer said:Entirely OT and several years behind the curve, but The Americans is the best TV series I've binge watched since Dexter.
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Bothmalcolmg said:
Who TSE or CameronTykejohnno said:
He's a laughing stock.chestnut said:
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!Tykejohnno said:0 -
Good man!malcolmg said:
OUT , against all Remain nutters like Cameron. How do these idiots sleep at night.GIN1138 said:
Evening Malc!malcolmg said:
Dear Dear how the mighty have fallen , now just a Tory mouthpiece spouting lies and propagandaAlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
Are you for IN or OUT? Or maybe your for shake it all about? 0 -
Amazon. Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell play the leads - Russian Spies in deep American cover.Plato_Says said:
Not seen that, is it on Netflix or Amazon?Mortimer said:Entirely OT and several years behind the curve, but The Americans is the best TV series I've binge watched since Dexter.
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I've not read the article but wouldn't it be saying that its the absence of a local steel producer which would be damaging to British car plants ?rcs1000 said:
So, if we forced them to pay above the market price for steel, they would be in a better position.Speedy said:Meanwhile the Car Industry appears to be under threat:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729423019945435136
Well, it's a view.
Whether that's true or not I don't know.
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Jeremy Vine
The most disturbing thing I’ve yet read about journalism in the 21st century comes from one of Obama’s comms people https://t.co/Ykpm1XbqDY0 -
one swallow does not a summer make. You may have called that but to support that Cameron bilge is very silly.AlastairMeeks said:
Pathetic is dismissing an 8/1 bet out of hand that comes home that night.malcolmg said:
How pathetic can you getAlastairMeeks said:
You cannot compartmentalise international relations in that way. Sanctions against Russia are undertaken at an EU level, for example.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Our NATO membership is NOT at stake on June 23rd.AlastairMeeks said:
So the correct action is to make the current generation of Western leaders weaker, more compromised and more pusillanimous? Really?Charles said:
Vladimir Putin won't be around for ever.AlastairMeeks said:
Why do you think that Vladimir Putin is keen on Britain leaving? He sees opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
Curiously enough, we managed to avoid WWIII as a member of NATO for almost 25 years prior to our membership of the EEC, and that was during the greatest flashpoint of the Cuban Missile Crisis where there over a million Soviet troops facing off against us in Eastern Europe.AlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
I think we (and Europe) will be ok.
He's an opportunistic thug, faced by a historically weak generation of compromised and pusillanimous Western leaders.
Brexit is bigger than Putin.0 -
Thanks will give it a goMortimer said:
Amazon. Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell play the leads - Russian Spies in deep American cover.Plato_Says said:
Not seen that, is it on Netflix or Amazon?Mortimer said:Entirely OT and several years behind the curve, but The Americans is the best TV series I've binge watched since Dexter.
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Yes Alistair, when you think rationally your posts are indeed worth reading.AlastairMeeks said:
Pathetic is dismissing an 8/1 bet out of hand that comes home that night.malcolmg said:
How pathetic can you getAlastairMeeks said:
You cannot compartmentalise international relations in that way. Sanctions against Russia are undertaken at an EU level, for example.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Our NATO membership is NOT at stake on June 23rd.AlastairMeeks said:
So the correct action is to make the current generation of Western leaders weaker, more compromised and more pusillanimous? Really?Charles said:
Vladimir Putin won't be around for ever.AlastairMeeks said:
Why do you think that Vladimir Putin is keen on Britain leaving? He sees opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
Curiously enough, we managed to avoid WWIII as a member of NATO for almost 25 years prior to our membership of the EEC, and that was during the greatest flashpoint of the Cuban Missile Crisis where there over a million Soviet troops facing off against us in Eastern Europe.AlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
I think we (and Europe) will be ok.
He's an opportunistic thug, faced by a historically weak generation of compromised and pusillanimous Western leaders.
Brexit is bigger than Putin.0 -
We had already agreed at the end of WW2 that those countries were part of the Russian sphere of influence. No one in the West was going to go to war with Russia however much we might have disapproved of their actions.viewcode said:
The UK did not consent to, nor did it approve of, Czechia 68, Hungary 56, Berlin 61, or Berlin 48. We "let" the Russians do it because if we intervened they would nuke us and we would die. Sunil's contention that there were no Anglo-European wars 45-73 has to be placed in the context of the Cold WarRichard_Tyndall said:
We let the Russians do that because, for better or worse, that is the deal we did with them at the end of WW2. Its not right but it had little or nothing to do with the politicians at the time. Do you really think they should have started a world war over the Russians doing what we had already agreed they could do?viewcode said:
No. If I recall we only got off our arses when the Egyptians, Malaysians, Irish got a bit ansty or when the UN thought Korea would be a fun place to visit. But when it came to Europe we thought it was a bit forren and gave not two damns, 'cos the Russians had nukes and we thought it best not to care. So we let the Russians send secret police into Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, West Germany, et al, stood and watched when the Russians sent tanks into Hungary, and let them destroy the Prague Spring. Good old us. Yay.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Were there any Anglo-European Wars between 1945 and 1973?AlastairMeeks said:I see that the site's hardcore Leavers are of the view that Britain can waltz out of the EU without any short, medium or long term damage to relations with other countries and without in any way destabilising international relations.
And then they suggest that this is beyond doubt. Remarkable.
It is interesting that the only European war came about not because of any change in the EU but because of a change in the balance of power between NATO and the former Soviet Union after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The EU has done nothing to prevent war in Europe. That is all entirely down to the balance of power between East and West and the maintenance of agreed red lines.0 -
Mr Putin is making an offer for free land to settle to Brits who are fed up with life here:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/668073/Vladimir-Putin-offers-disillusioned-British-citizens-free-land-in-Russia
LondonBob must be first in the queue.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentages_agreementRichard_Tyndall said:
We let the Russians do that because, for better or worse, that is the deal we did with them at the end of WW2. Its not right but it had little or nothing to do with the politicians at the time. Do you really think they should have started a world war over the Russians doing what we had already agreed they could do?viewcode said:
No. If I recall we only got off our arses when the Egyptians, Malaysians, Irish got a bit ansty or when the UN thought Korea would be a fun place to visit. But when it came to Europe we thought it was a bit forren and gave not two damns, 'cos the Russians had nukes and we thought it best not to care. So we let the Russians send secret police into Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, West Germany, et al, stood and watched when the Russians sent tanks into Hungary, and let them destroy the Prague Spring. Good old us. Yay.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Were there any Anglo-European Wars between 1945 and 1973?AlastairMeeks said:I see that the site's hardcore Leavers are of the view that Britain can waltz out of the EU without any short, medium or long term damage to relations with other countries and without in any way destabilising international relations.
And then they suggest that this is beyond doubt. Remarkable.0 -
Goodnight all, my ribs have been thoroughly tickled.0
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Sorry you misunderstand me Big G. My animosity is in no way directed at Remainers in general. People like Alistair Meeks and yourself, although I think you are wrong, deserve to be heard and responded to with courtesy. I complimented Alistair a few days ago when he reminded us of the piece he wrote last year on his difficulty in deciding for or against Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The one thing that the headlines have done tonight is provoke fury from the leavers and really the animosity is off the scale. I am prepared to pass an opinion tomorrow when I have listened to the speech and if it is as the headlines I will express disapproval. In the meantime I wish everyone a good night's rest and hope that civility will return to all soon.Richard_Tyndall said:
You are not my enemy. You are just someone I scorn. You don't deserve to be regarded as an enemy as that would imply some respect and I certainly have none of that for you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Never hate your enemies, it effects your judgement.Richard_Tyndall said:
I have been campaigning for Leave for weeks. Once that is over I will campaign for whichever party has the best chance of defeating the Tories at whatever elections we have in the future. I will enjoy your squeals of anguish when that day comes.TheScreamingEagles said:
A typo on my part, but for the avoidance of doubt, I so hope you're campaigning for Leave.
Just saying.
It is TSE himself who is the target of my scorn. The man who railed for so long about one man leaving a political party and coined special titles for someone who he claimed quite openly was a traitor, now reduced to the same sort of behaviour. It is utterly hypocritical.0 -
Andrew Sullivan's apocalyptic vision of a Trump presidency 'To call this Fascism doesn't do justice to Fascism. Fascism had, in some measure, an ideology and occasional coherence that Trump lacks....those Republicans trying to thwart this monster deserve our passionate support, not our disdain....They should resist any temptation to loyally back the nominee or to sit this election out. They must take the fight to Trump at every opportunity, unite with Democrats and independents against him and be prepared to sacrifice one election in order to save their party and their country.
For Trump is not just a wacky politician of the far right, or a riveting television spectacle, or a Twitter phenomonon. He is not just another candidate to be analysed by TV pundits in the same breadth as all others. In terms of our liberal democracy and constitutional order, Trump is an extinction-level event. It's long past time that we started treating him as such.'
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-tyrant-in-the-making-wnl7clrs50 -
Is this the sort of forensic analysis your clients depend on you for? 'Disunited' 'Putin sees opportunities'AlastairMeeks said:
Why do you think that Vladimir Putin is keen on Britain leaving? He sees opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
Curiously enough, we managed to avoid WWIII as a member of NATO for almost 25 years prior to our membership of the EEC, and that was during the greatest flashpoint of the Cuban Missile Crisis where there over a million Soviet troops facing off against us in Eastern Europe.AlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
I think we (and Europe) will be ok.
Cretintastic.0 -
Niall Ferguson in similar vein
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-will-find-it-hard-to-wreck-the-us-the-rest-of-the-world-is-his-oyster-w6ts0592c0 -
Obama must be at the back of the queue.foxinsoxuk said:Mr Putin is making an offer for free land to settle to Brits who are fed up with life here:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/668073/Vladimir-Putin-offers-disillusioned-British-citizens-free-land-in-Russia
LondonBob must be first in the queue. 0 -
He is already there...foxinsoxuk said:Mr Putin is making an offer for free land to settle to Brits who are fed up with life here:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/668073/Vladimir-Putin-offers-disillusioned-British-citizens-free-land-in-Russia
LondonBob must be first in the queue.0 -
I'm not sure becoming a national laughing stock was entirely the idea from Downing St.Plato_Says said:Goodnight all, my ribs have been thoroughly tickled.
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#BackOfTheNetSunil_Prasannan said:
Obama must be at the back of the queue.foxinsoxuk said:Mr Putin is making an offer for free land to settle to Brits who are fed up with life here:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/668073/Vladimir-Putin-offers-disillusioned-British-citizens-free-land-in-Russia
LondonBob must be first in the queue.0 -
He'll either confirm his wild-eyed claims, or look like a coward if he tones it down from the briefed version.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The telegraph, mail and times have made an issue of this before David Cameron has spoken but one thing it has done is to put the spotlight on him tomorrow and diminish Boris's big speech. We will see how this pans outRichard_Tyndall said:
More chance of accuracy and honesty from the Telegraph than there is from Cameron.matt said:
It's the telegraph. The chances of honesty or accuracy are limited.GIN1138 said:
David Cameron - From Mad To Worse!Plato_Says said:
I wonder if this is his jumping the shark moment.0 -
Based on the real life case of the Illegals programme.Mortimer said:
Amazon. Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell play the leads - Russian Spies in deep American cover.Plato_Says said:
Not seen that, is it on Netflix or Amazon?Mortimer said:Entirely OT and several years behind the curve, but The Americans is the best TV series I've binge watched since Dexter.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/07/discovered-our-parents-were-russian-spies-tim-alex-foley0 -
It's too late even if he does back-peddle. The narrative is set and Brexit = WWIII is what people will remember from Cameron's speech even if he doesn't say it,Luckyguy1983 said:
He'll either confirm his wild-eyed claims, or look like a coward if he tones it down from the briefed version.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The telegraph, mail and times have made an issue of this before David Cameron has spoken but one thing it has done is to put the spotlight on him tomorrow and diminish Boris's big speech. We will see how this pans outRichard_Tyndall said:
More chance of accuracy and honesty from the Telegraph than there is from Cameron.matt said:
It's the telegraph. The chances of honesty or accuracy are limited.GIN1138 said:
David Cameron - From Mad To Worse!Plato_Says said:
I wonder if this is his jumping the shark moment.0 -
So: Port Talbot will close because the Government can't support loss-making industries.rcs1000 said:
So, if we forced them to pay above the market price for steel, they would be in a better position.Speedy said:Meanwhile the Car Industry appears to be under threat:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729423019945435136
Well, it's a view.
The EU makes the rule about supporting loss-making industries
Therefore the EU is going to close down ALL UK car production.
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They performed far worse than Harold Macmillan in 1960 and 1961.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives didn't do especially badly for a governing party. They performed, relative to the Opposition, as well as they did in 1984, and as Labour did in 2002. Nobody thought Neil Kinnock or Iain Duncan Smith would go on to win the subsequent general election.surbiton said:Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?0 -
Bristol local elections — popular vote totals (using highest vote method)
Lab: 51,520 (35.60%)
Con: 30,544 (21.10%)
Greens: 30,009 (20.73%)
LD 24,130 (16.67%)
UKIP 4,273 (2.95%)
Ind 1,566 (1.08%)
Others 2,695 (1.86%)0 -
'One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections.'
That might be true if the age profiles in London were the same as the rest of the UK.
The proportion of the population of inner London over 60 is 12%, outer London 17% compared with 22% outside London.0 -
Surprised people are rubbishing this thread header. It seems interesting to me. This is quite a striking fact:
"Zac had leads ranging between 22% and 30% with the overs 65s, yet still lost by nearly 14%, which these polls accurately predicted."
I think that if I were told that a poll had a 14% lead for X but that over-65s broke by a 22% margin for not-X I'd wonder if the poll was ascribing too much certainty to vote to younger people.
Well, we don't know how over-65s broke in the actual election. Heck, maybe they voted 50/50 on the day. But it's food for thought.0 -
Ah, OK. So what's the figure for London as a whole? 15%?john_zims said:'One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections.'
That might be true if the age profiles in London were the same as the rest of the UK.
The proportion of the population of inner London over 60 is 12%, outer London 17% compared with 22% outside London.0 -
I couldn't give a toss about "narratives". I'm interesting in things that might contradict the assumptions on which I bet.john_zims said:@Wanderer
'Surprised people are rubbishing this thread header. It seems interesting to me.'
Because the age profiles in London are completely different from the rest of the UK, which some very basic research would have shown, but that clearly didn't fit the narrative.0 -
Hillary Clinton received 53% of all campaign contributions from Wall Street in March. https://t.co/RHIH5IiFX80
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So the all-UK figure will be about 21%. I don't think that entirely dismisses the subject. 22-30% is a big lead.john_zims said:@Wanderer
'Ah, OK. So what's the figure for London as a whole? 15%?'
I would guess around 15% for 12% of the UK population versus 22% for 88% of the population.
Small difference !0 -
Also, one needs look at the proportion of those eligible to vote, not the population.Wanderer said:
So the all-UK figure will be about 21%. I don't think that entirely dismisses the subject. 22-30% is a big lead.john_zims said:@Wanderer
'Ah, OK. So what's the figure for London as a whole? 15%?'
I would guess around 15% for 12% of the UK population versus 22% for 88% of the population.
Small difference !0 -
At least you're consistent - against rule from both London & Brussels......Nicola, on the other hand, is strongly for FREEDOM from London, but not Brussels...malcolmg said:
OUT , against all Remain nutters like Cameron. How do these idiots sleep at night.GIN1138 said:
Evening Malc!malcolmg said:
Dear Dear how the mighty have fallen , now just a Tory mouthpiece spouting lies and propagandaAlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
Are you for IN or OUT? Or maybe your for shake it all about?0 -
This thread is the kind of meta-narrative extrapolation of which we should be wary.0
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I think we should be wary of such terms as "meta-narrative extrapolation"Estobar said:This thread is the kind of meta-narrative extrapolation of which we should be wary.
The subheading may well fall into the category QTWTAIN, however.0 -
TSE is right to flag this up. Were the oldies as certain to vote as they indicated? Or were they simply outvoted by youngsters galvinised by the campaign? As the poll was accurate overall, and in line with other polls, I suspect the latter more than the former.0
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I suspect that even the 'oldies' got fed up with the slow moving, somnolent, half dead, Zac.0
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Remain must be seeing polling that is putting Leave ahead, they wouldn't be going with this sort of thing otherwise . This is Dave shitting himself, look at the Zac campaign they thought "oh shit we are going to lose here we might as well go for broke" I think that is what is happening here.Tykejohnno said:
I am convinced now Leave is ahead with a 65% turnout llikely.0 -
People asked the wrong question, not: is Jon Snow dead?
But is Zac Goldsmith alive?0 -
The only way to ensure that Port Talbot survives is to substantially increase the tariffs on imported steel, something we could do if we left the EU.weejonnie said:
So: Port Talbot will close because the Government can't support loss-making industries.rcs1000 said:
So, if we forced them to pay above the market price for steel, they would be in a better position.Speedy said:Meanwhile the Car Industry appears to be under threat:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729423019945435136
Well, it's a view.
The EU makes the rule about supporting loss-making industries
Therefore the EU is going to close down ALL UK car production.
The consequences of raising tariffs on steel, would be that steel consumers (like the car industry) would pay more for steel.0 -
Always remember and never forget: anyone who votes REMAIN is a foul and vicious traitor. They should be tortured to death, yesterday, along with all their loved ones.
DOWN with reason, UP with fear and rage!0 -
Britain 'blocked' EU bid to raise China steel tariff that could have protected the industry from cheap importsrcs1000 said:
The only way to ensure that Port Talbot survives is to substantially increase the tariffs on imported steel, something we could do if we left the EU.weejonnie said:
So: Port Talbot will close because the Government can't support loss-making industries.rcs1000 said:
So, if we forced them to pay above the market price for steel, they would be in a better position.Speedy said:Meanwhile the Car Industry appears to be under threat:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729423019945435136
Well, it's a view.
The EU makes the rule about supporting loss-making industries
Therefore the EU is going to close down ALL UK car production.
The consequences of raising tariffs on steel, would be that steel consumers (like the car industry) would pay more for steel.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3518278/UK-blocked-EU-bid-raise-China-steel-tariff-protected-industry-cheap-imports.html0 -
But the proportion of the price of a new car that is attributable to the price of steel is pretty tiny.rcs1000 said:
The only way to ensure that Port Talbot survives is to substantially increase the tariffs on imported steel, something we could do if we left the EU.weejonnie said:
So: Port Talbot will close because the Government can't support loss-making industries.rcs1000 said:
So, if we forced them to pay above the market price for steel, they would be in a better position.Speedy said:Meanwhile the Car Industry appears to be under threat:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729423019945435136
Well, it's a view.
The EU makes the rule about supporting loss-making industries
Therefore the EU is going to close down ALL UK car production.
The consequences of raising tariffs on steel, would be that steel consumers (like the car industry) would pay more for steel.0 -
Yes, well even a lot of Tories think Osborne is an idiot.logical_song said:
Britain 'blocked' EU bid to raise China steel tariff that could have protected the industry from cheap importsrcs1000 said:
The only way to ensure that Port Talbot survives is to substantially increase the tariffs on imported steel, something we could do if we left the EU.weejonnie said:
So: Port Talbot will close because the Government can't support loss-making industries.rcs1000 said:
So, if we forced them to pay above the market price for steel, they would be in a better position.Speedy said:Meanwhile the Car Industry appears to be under threat:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729423019945435136
Well, it's a view.
The EU makes the rule about supporting loss-making industries
Therefore the EU is going to close down ALL UK car production.
The consequences of raising tariffs on steel, would be that steel consumers (like the car industry) would pay more for steel.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3518278/UK-blocked-EU-bid-raise-China-steel-tariff-protected-industry-cheap-imports.html0 -
It's paywall, but on the basis of the extract, Sullivan seems to feel that incoherence is worse than fascism. I wouldn't go that far. It's possible that Trump would be OK, probable that he'd just blunder around, very unlikely that he'd be an existential threat to liberal democracy.HYUFD said:Andrew Sullivan's apocalyptic vision of a Trump presidency 'To call this Fascism doesn't do justice to Fascism. Fascism had, in some measure, an ideology and occasional coherence that Trump lacks....those Republicans trying to thwart this monster deserve our passionate support, not our disdain....They should resist any temptation to loyally back the nominee or to sit this election out. They must take the fight to Trump at every opportunity, unite with Democrats and independents against him and be prepared to sacrifice one election in order to save their party and their country.
For Trump is not just a wacky politician of the far right, or a riveting television spectacle, or a Twitter phenomonon. He is not just another candidate to be analysed by TV pundits in the same breadth as all others. In terms of our liberal democracy and constitutional order, Trump is an extinction-level event. It's long past time that we started treating him as such.'
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-tyrant-in-the-making-wnl7clrs50 -
Followed by Farage.foxinsoxuk said:Mr Putin is making an offer for free land to settle to Brits who are fed up with life here:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/668073/Vladimir-Putin-offers-disillusioned-British-citizens-free-land-in-Russia
LondonBob must be first in the queue.0 -
He might even do a little better than that. He has a track record for preferring to sit back and manage, and hire experts to handle the details. A government which consisted of domain experts under the direction of a competent manager would be an interesting diversion from the usual party hacks and quid-pro-quo power broking.NickPalmer said:It's paywall, but on the basis of the extract, Sullivan seems to feel that incoherence is worse than fascism. I wouldn't go that far. It's possible that Trump would be OK, probable that he'd just blunder around, very unlikely that he'd be an existential threat to liberal democracy.
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Nevertheless, the increase in steel costs comes directly out of the profits of the car company.Indigo said:
But the proportion of the cost of a new car that is attributable to the price of steel is pretty tiny.rcs1000 said:
The only way to ensure that Port Talbot survives is to substantially increase the tariffs on imported steel, something we could do if we left the EU.weejonnie said:
So: Port Talbot will close because the Government can't support loss-making industries.rcs1000 said:
So, if we forced them to pay above the market price for steel, they would be in a better position.Speedy said:Meanwhile the Car Industry appears to be under threat:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/729423019945435136
Well, it's a view.
The EU makes the rule about supporting loss-making industries
Therefore the EU is going to close down ALL UK car production.
The consequences of raising tariffs on steel, would be that steel consumers (like the car industry) would pay more for steel.
Of course, we could impose tariffs on cars imported into the UK, to reflect the fact that foreign cars would benefit from cheaper steel.
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Bemoaning small profit cuts for rich multinationals, while true is unlikely to find much sympathy with voters. I would guess there is plenty of price elasticity in the new car market, its very much a luxury item, putting another five hundred quid on the tag of a new Honda is going to put off almost no buyers.rcs1000 said:
Nevertheless, the increase in steel costs comes directly out of the profits of the car company.Indigo said:
But the proportion of the cost of a new car that is attributable to the price of steel is pretty tiny.
Of course, we could impose tariffs on cars imported into the UK, to reflect the fact that foreign cars would benefit from cheaper steel.
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This tune is getting a bit old, do you know any others ?Innocent_Abroad said:Always remember and never forget: anyone who votes REMAIN is a foul and vicious traitor. They should be tortured to death, yesterday, along with all their loved ones.
DOWN with reason, UP with fear and rage!
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Good luck with encouraging companies like Nissan to invest in the UK in future!Indigo said:
Bemoaning small profit cuts for rich multinationals, while true is unlikely to find much sympathy with voters. I would guess there is plenty of price elasticity in the new car market, its very much a luxury item, putting another five hundred quid on the tag of a new Honda is going to put off almost no buyers.rcs1000 said:
Nevertheless, the increase in steel costs comes directly out of the profits of the car company.Indigo said:
But the proportion of the cost of a new car that is attributable to the price of steel is pretty tiny.
Of course, we could impose tariffs on cars imported into the UK, to reflect the fact that foreign cars would benefit from cheaper steel.0 -
How does the elderly population of London compare with the population, one might expect London to be younger than average as oldies move out to quieter areas as they retire, and especially convert their two bedroom terrace into a big detached house in the west country or the north.foxinsoxuk said:TSE is right to flag this up. Were the oldies as certain to vote as they indicated? Or were they simply outvoted by youngsters galvinised by the campaign? As the poll was accurate overall, and in line with other polls, I suspect the latter more than the former.
EDIT: Ah I see this was discussed earlier.. I agree, London is younger, so the headline post is misleading, the majority of a tiny number of oldies voted for Zac, and Khan won, shocker.0 -
I seem to remember the CEO of Nissan (UK) saying pretty much the same about the Euro, and yet here we are, if they can make money they will invest, even if that money is 5-10% less than they would ideally like.rcs1000 said:
Good luck with encouraging companies like Nissan to invest in the UK in future!Indigo said:
Bemoaning small profit cuts for rich multinationals, while true is unlikely to find much sympathy with voters. I would guess there is plenty of price elasticity in the new car market, its very much a luxury item, putting another five hundred quid on the tag of a new Honda is going to put off almost no buyers.rcs1000 said:
Nevertheless, the increase in steel costs comes directly out of the profits of the car company.Indigo said:
But the proportion of the cost of a new car that is attributable to the price of steel is pretty tiny.
Of course, we could impose tariffs on cars imported into the UK, to reflect the fact that foreign cars would benefit from cheaper steel.0 -
I agree with @Wanderer that this is an interesting thread header. The consensus over the last several years is that it is smart to overweight what the oldies are thinking because they have much higher turnout and in moderate turnouts overall they are substantially overweight in the final result.
If these figures reflect how people actually voted it would suggest that this tendency can be overstated. The key word, however, is "if". My impression from several hundred miles away is that in the last week or so Zac's campaign pretty much imploded with widespread distaste at the character assassination stuff. It is not inconceivable that this distaste might have been particularly strong amongst the old.
Even if that proves not to be the case, however, it would suggest that the watch the oldies theory can be over used and has limitations. And that is worth thinking about.0 -
I don't think they would shut down. But why would they invest more. For example, Nissan could invest in a new plant , say, near Drogheda, take skilled labour from Sunderland for a couple of years at a good pay. I am sure the Irish government would give a lot of the facilities as cheaply as possible under EU rules.Indigo said:
I seem to remember the CEO of Nissan (UK) saying pretty much the same about the Euro, and yet here we are, if they can make money they will invest, even if that money is 5-10% less than they would ideally like.rcs1000 said:
Good luck with encouraging companies like Nissan to invest in the UK in future!Indigo said:
Bemoaning small profit cuts for rich multinationals, while true is unlikely to find much sympathy with voters. I would guess there is plenty of price elasticity in the new car market, its very much a luxury item, putting another five hundred quid on the tag of a new Honda is going to put off almost no buyers.rcs1000 said:
Nevertheless, the increase in steel costs comes directly out of the profits of the car company.Indigo said:
But the proportion of the cost of a new car that is attributable to the price of steel is pretty tiny.
Of course, we could impose tariffs on cars imported into the UK, to reflect the fact that foreign cars would benefit from cheaper steel.0 -
Tales from the count in Dundee. My daughter reported that several SNP supporters present were talking about voting Leave to try and precipitate a further referendum.
This is of course beyond stupid because if Scotland votes Leave as well as rUK then there is no basis for a referendum. In any event the mood music from on high is very much that this is not the time.
It does, however, reflect the impatience and frustration in SNP ranks amongst their more ardent supporters (and you have to be pretty ardent to hang around a count for hours doing very little wondering what is going on elsewhere). Managing that frustration is going to be a difficult and tricky task for Nicola. In the meantime Leave might gain some unexpected supporters. I saw Malcolm declare himself for Leave overnight.0 -
I believe that Cameron attacked Trump as he did because he (Cammo) had word that Trump would do whatever was needed to remove Muslim Mayors and "ex-Muslim" Cabinet ministers.NickPalmer said:
It's paywall, but on the basis of the extract, Sullivan seems to feel that incoherence is worse than fascism. I wouldn't go that far. It's possible that Trump would be OK, probable that he'd just blunder around, very unlikely that he'd be an existential threat to liberal democracy.HYUFD said:Andrew Sullivan's apocalyptic vision of a Trump presidency 'To call this Fascism doesn't do justice to Fascism. Fascism had, in some measure, an ideology and occasional coherence that Trump lacks....those Republicans trying to thwart this monster deserve our passionate support, not our disdain....They should resist any temptation to loyally back the nominee or to sit this election out. They must take the fight to Trump at every opportunity, unite with Democrats and independents against him and be prepared to sacrifice one election in order to save their party and their country.
For Trump is not just a wacky politician of the far right, or a riveting television spectacle, or a Twitter phenomonon. He is not just another candidate to be analysed by TV pundits in the same breadth as all others. In terms of our liberal democracy and constitutional order, Trump is an extinction-level event. It's long past time that we started treating him as such.'
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-tyrant-in-the-making-wnl7clrs5
He is an existential threat to liberal democracy, and come November I expect at least one Peebie in three to be rejoicing that he is. After all, Tories have already started saying that Sajid Khan's election was rigged.
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NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
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But the UK could offer facilities as cheaply as possible under UK rules.surbiton said:
I don't think they would shut down. But why would they invest more. For example, Nissan could invest in a new plant , say, near Drogheda, take skilled labour from Sunderland for a couple of years at a good pay. I am sure the Irish government would give a lot of the facilities as cheaply as possible under EU rules.Indigo said:
I seem to remember the CEO of Nissan (UK) saying pretty much the same about the Euro, and yet here we are, if they can make money they will invest, even if that money is 5-10% less than they would ideally like.rcs1000 said:
Good luck with encouraging companies like Nissan to invest in the UK in future!Indigo said:
Bemoaning small profit cuts for rich multinationals, while true is unlikely to find much sympathy with voters. I would guess there is plenty of price elasticity in the new car market, its very much a luxury item, putting another five hundred quid on the tag of a new Honda is going to put off almost no buyers.rcs1000 said:
Nevertheless, the increase in steel costs comes directly out of the profits of the car company.Indigo said:
But the proportion of the cost of a new car that is attributable to the price of steel is pretty tiny.
Of course, we could impose tariffs on cars imported into the UK, to reflect the fact that foreign cars would benefit from cheaper steel.0
