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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost
One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections.
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Be LEAVE!
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/729397915135950848
By contrast the most recent national Yougov poll for the EU ref (42:41 to Leave): 347 of 1650 of the weighted sample (21%) and 70 of 228 absolutely certain to vote (30.7%) were over 65.
The difference was that Leave had a lead had a 30% lead with the over 65s, a 10% lead with the over 50s and were only 9% behind with the 25-49 age group.
By contrast, in London, Khan had a 4% lead with the over 50s, a 30% lead with the 25-49 age group, and a 44% lead with the 18-24s.
Put simply, the few oldies in London were just overwhelmed.
Will it be enough?
Dunno, but that's why it will be close.
Trying to equate the electoral population of the Primaries and the General Election to determine where a candidate will be strong is the quickest way to the poorhouse I could imagine.
And I say this as someone who's two Scottish Election tips were complete busts.
RCP average had
Clinton 49.4%
Trump 38.9%
Clinton +10.5% a month ago.
Today Clinton leads Trump by 6.5%
Personally, I think this might be good for getting Remain donations from europhile centrists, and the soft-Left. However, given nearly half the population back Brexit, including mainstream British politicians, it risks insulting the wider electorate, and firming up soft Leavers, if given greater air.
I think Remain are in danger of making the same mistakes Yes2AV did.
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?
For the basic reason that the EU has failed in economic and social terms, the future is out there and it's not european.
On topic.
London <> Britain.
As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.
If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
Says all that needs saying about how interesting these findings are.
As an aside, one piece from Scotland on error margins with final polls;
Yougov (net): SNP+1.5%: Lab -0.6%: Con -3.0%: LD -0.8%: Others +2.9%
Ipsos (phone): SNP+4.5%: Lab -3.6%: Con -4.0%: LD -1.8%: Others +4.9%
a) Net more accurate than phone.
b) Arrange them in left/right blocs and they suddenly become a lot more accurate;
Trump's collapse in favourables and voting share coincided with the start of the NeverTrump after the Nevada caucus. It dragged down not only Trump but the entire Republican party down in the polls.
Since the Wisconsin primary Trump is slowing recovering in both metrics, but it's a very slow recovery.
Remain were always going to have the Guardianistas, Greens, the nationalist Left, public sector unionised employees, intelligentsia, third sector, media and arts world, and the internationalists in the bank.
It's the fact that a Tory PM has come out so strongly for Remain that's made this close: he's confused his own natural support base, and taken at least a good third of them with him.
That's why this is possibly not far off a (slightly weighted) coin flip shot.
That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.
London is an outlier. An abnormality.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
https://twitter.com/Stronger_ln/status/729305749948633088
I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.
Oh, I forgot to mention that Trump also went out of his way to insult the Pope.
Anti-Catholicism is the easy, acceptable bigotry but if he wanted to win white-ethnic Democrats and mitigate damage among Hispanics, he shouldn't have taken the bait. Clever Pope.
But, BUT, I'm voting LEAVE
Irish-Americans and Italian-Americans seem to like Trump's brash character.
Before we went into the EU interest rates were about 3%
Personally, I think the Tory vote will end up splitting something like 55:45 for Brexit, but I think Tory sympathies for Brexit go much wider than that: two Tory voting friends of mine want to vote Leave, but may end up extremely reluctant Remainers (or abstaining) because they are worried. But they have both told me they really want to tell "Brussels" where to go.
Obviously, I am working on them :-)
It looks like the EU is gearing up to repeat its waterboarding of Greece of last summer, going far beyond what the IMF considers achievable. If so then in the UK attitudes towards the EU on the left could start to shift away from the Remain camp. It'll serve as a reminder that this supposedly cosy internationalist club is not quite what it's being painted to be by the Labour IN campaign. The main issue is timing and whether a lid can be kept on this until July, allowing the UK June referendum to pass out of the way first.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/08/rioters-take-to-the-streets-ahead-of-greek-austerity-vote
Please tell me this is a spoof.
UK aid to the EU (net amount), 2015: £8,500,000,000
http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html
I am sitting here with my mouth aghast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.
And they don't get to vote in the referendum anyway.