Still Diane likes to do dog whistle comments of her own doesn't she.
what was it about divide and rule for example.........
Or that we "would never understand the Afro-Caribbean culture of parents wanting to do the best for their children" to defend her hypocritical decision to send her children all away across London to a private school. However she had already criticised Blair and Harman for doing just that previously.
Only the best for our Dianne heh? her offspring don't have to suffer the comprehensive system that's the system she supports for everyone else children. Labour personified.
Diane went to a comprehensive school (with Portillo) and Oxbridge.
Seems like that massive hole to Australia that Ken has been digging...Dianne Abbott has decided to just straight in and give him a hand finishing it off.
New Zealand, NOT Australia. The "antipode" to London is 51.5 degrees south, 0.5 degrees east.
I think Mr Francais was alluding to the fact that Labour have never once got a major construction project correct and so would not hit the correct geographical point this time either.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
The 16% the Lib Dems scored was their local election NEV; they were polling about 11-12% in GE VI at the time. So if they're currently polling about 7-8% in GE intention, that should translate to about 12% in their local election performance given the boost they traditionally get in that arena.
Not sure that works to that extent any more. They must have something in excess of 350 seats up this time and I would not be surprised if they were around 200 by the end of the night.
Even last year the Lib Dems achieved around 5% more votes in the local elections than they did in the GE . They are defending around 270 seats . All out elections in a few councils on new boundaries will also distort the results Knowsley currently 63 Labour councillors will go down to 45 again all Labour . Is that No change or a loss of 18 Winchester 32 Con 23 Lib Dem 2 Labour goes down to 45 perhaps Con 25 Lib Dem 20 The one Labour ward is dismembered so have they lost 2 councillors or is it no change as they would have had none if previous elections had been fought on the new boundaries . Forecasts are Lab minus 150 Rallings and Thrasher minus 151 Fisher Con plus 50 R and T plus 19 Fisher LDem plus 40 R and T plus 93 Fisher UKIP plus 40 R and T no forecast Fisher Others plus 20 R and T no forecast Fisher
FWIW my forecast Lab minus 110 Con plus 20 LDem plus 50 UKIP plus 20 Others plus 20
I agree like for like is extremely difficult in LG where no one ever seems willing to leave things alone for long. But in 2012 the Lib Dems won 431 seats (according to Wiki) in the equivalent elections. Very few of these were in Scotland, some would have been in Wales but surely the vast bulk must have been in England. 270 seems very low.
I think an increased number of seats on a reduced share of the vote seems unlikely.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
This is why I think cynically peddling this anti semitism stuff is so dangerous . It gives authority for those like the Mail to peddle a seriously nasty agenda with the only real opposition neutered
The working class can kiss my ass cos I've got the union job at last.
You don't get me, I'm part of the union You don't get me, I'm part of the union You don't get me, I'm part of the union Til the day I die Til the day I die
Still Diane likes to do dog whistle comments of her own doesn't she.
what was it about divide and rule for example.........
Or that we "would never understand the Afro-Caribbean culture of parents wanting to do the best for their children" to defend her hypocritical decision to send her children all away across London to a private school. However she had already criticised Blair and Harman for doing just that previously.
Only the best for our Dianne heh? her offspring don't have to suffer the comprehensive system that's the system she supports for everyone else children. Labour personified.
Diane went to a comprehensive school (with Portillo) and Oxbridge.
Irrelevant. Apparently they went grammar. I was actually referring to her children not to her and the fact she sends her kids private while promoting comprehensive for everyone else.
She would know a smear if she saw one, you'd hope, given her use of them.
Labour, and probably others, has a problem with anti semitism is no smear, there is evidence to support it and the question is how much if one. Labour as a whole is antisemitic would count as a smear, as it is clearly false.
I don't believe it has. It's a storm being whipped up by people with an agenda mainly on the right with an appaling history of racism and anti semitism.
Except that's provably nonsense, since loads of Labour figures have been whipping up this storm, and so insisting this is about people on the right is conspiracy level thinking.
It also presumes that since people 'whipping' this up do have other factors in mind, eg damaging Corbyn, there is nothing of substance to what they are whipping up, except that too is provably nonsense as we have very clear and offensive comments from Ken and others, which some like Shah have at least acknowledged are offensive, showing there is a problem. People can quibble over if it is a big problem or if the problem is being magnified right now, but a problem there is. And no that doesn't mean there is not a problem elsewhere.
Even people with an agenda, even opponents with an agenda, can find a genuine point to raise. Such it is with this, and when it is dismissed purely on the basis that those people have an agenda, without addressing the fact of what people like Ken and his many defenders have said and believed, it is at best lazy and complacent.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Which company's tables are you refering to?
The yougov data linked from below the histogram. P2 has the voting intention certainty table.
Thank you. That is the voting intention at a GE not at the referendum.
Incidentally it also has an incredible certainty to vote amongst the 65+ year olds (at a GE) of only 70%.
It has both. The voting certainty by Remain/Leave is in another column on the right.
I agree that the stated certainty to vote are a bit implausuble, but they usually are in polls. I see very little to suggest that turnout will affect the Leave/Remain balance by much.
LOL - As she continues to delete tweets and facebook entries.
Or as her aide claimed "periodic Spring Cleaning of her timelines"
Just a shame that people take note of what she has tweeted and posted - and so deleting does no good - as someone will have noted it!
Poor Diane - she genuinely seems to believe that only white people can be racist. What must it be like to be that deluded?
I follow Deleted Tweets https://twitter.com/deletedbyMPs and got a torrent of them - most are usually for typos or whatever, but occasionally a gem turns up.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
This is why I think cynically peddling this anti semitism stuff is so dangerous . It gives authority for those like the Mail to peddle a seriously nasty agenda with the only real opposition neutered
The 16% the Lib Dems scored was their local election NEV; they were polling about 11-12% in GE VI at the time. So if they're currently polling about 7-8% in GE intention, that should translate to about 12% in their local election performance given the boost they traditionally get in that arena.
Not sure that works to that extent any more. They must have something in excess of 350 seats up this time and I would not be surprised if they were around 200 by the end of the night.
Even last year the Lib Dems achieved around 5% more votes in the local elections than they did in the GE . They are defending around 270 seats . All out elections in a few councils on new boundaries will also distort the results Knowsley currently 63 Labour councillors will go down to 45 again all Labour . Is that No change or a loss of 18 Winchester 32 Con 23 Lib Dem 2 Labour goes down to 45 perhaps Con 25 Lib Dem 20 The one Labour ward is dismembered so have they lost 2 councillors or is it no change as they would have had none if previous elections had been fought on the new boundaries . Forecasts are Lab minus 150 Rallings and Thrasher minus 151 Fisher Con plus 50 R and T plus 19 Fisher LDem plus 40 R and T plus 93 Fisher UKIP plus 40 R and T no forecast Fisher Others plus 20 R and T no forecast Fisher
FWIW my forecast Lab minus 110 Con plus 20 LDem plus 50 UKIP plus 20 Others plus 20
I agree like for like is extremely difficult in LG where no one ever seems willing to leave things alone for long. But in 2012 the Lib Dems won 431 seats (according to Wiki) in the equivalent elections. Very few of these were in Scotland, some would have been in Wales but surely the vast bulk must have been in England. 270 seems very low.
I think an increased number of seats on a reduced share of the vote seems unlikely.
Lib Dems actually won 289 seats in England in 2012 ( see BBC England results page ) . 2 or 3 councils no longer have annual elections hence my figure of 270 . They are also defending around 30 seats won in 2014/2015 in councils such as Winchester and Watford which are having all out elections this year
Astonishing that man has not been prosecuted. The Hopisen piece about him was absolutely devastating.
Labour so untouchable.
At the very least there had been a series of breaches of fiduciary duty for which he should be held to account. Enough to bankrupt him and get the slime bag out of the Commons.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Probably, but I do think while things like that have little direct impact, they can subtly help in big ways - people vote by gut instinct a lot of the time, this is shown by how people will support/oppose a policy until they hear about who is proposing it, and there may well be many people who feel more comfortable voting Tory based off a general sense of what the party is like, or what the leader is like, on those types of issues.
Cameron wasn't feared by many people as an extreme right winger, and that probably shored up quite a few votes and helped Tory messages like the threat of SNP controlled Labour be more effective.
If Labour have a night of catastrophes (3rd in Scotland, losing their majority in Wales, 300 LG losses) plus a comfortable Khan victory in London common sense suggests that Corbyn gets Khan out of the HoC sharpish. Even Corbyn is not stupid enough to keep him hanging around.
The Abbott interview has made things worse for Labour. Surely she has been in politics long enough to know better - but apparently not.
She lacks the basic communication skills necessary to formulate, sustain and express a clear argument without getting herself tied up in knots.
I hadn't realised that Labour currently has 12 members under suspension for antisemitic remarks. Just the tip of the iceberg, of course. But still very clear evidence that there is a significant grouping within Labour ranks who see no problem with holding and expressing such offensive and twisted beliefs.
This is why I think cynically peddling this anti semitism stuff is so dangerous . It gives authority for those like the Mail to peddle a seriously nasty agenda with the only real opposition neutered
It does look a nasty story, but not calling out antisemitism elsewhere because the motivations of some doing include political reasons is no answer to opposing it.
The Scotland and Wales point is a good one although those elections seem to promise little good news for Labour.
Not so sure about there not being another Lib Dem implosion. Their share of the vote could fall from 16% to 7 or 8%, basically half.
Do you get an incumbency bounce in LG? I suppose you might if you were a hard working councillor etc but how many people know who their local councillor is? The other way of looking at it is that Labour's exceptional results in 2008 mean that quite a lot of their seats are in what might normally be unfavourable territory.
The 16% the Lib Dems scored was their local election NEV; they were polling about 11-12% in GE VI at the time. So if they're currently polling about 7-8% in GE intention, that should translate to about 12% in their local election performance given the boost they traditionally get in that arena.
Not sure that works to that extent any more. They must have something in excess of 350 seats up this time and I would not be surprised if they were around 200 by the end of the night.
Even last year the Lib Dems achieved around 5% more votes in the local elections than they did in the GE . They are defending around 270 seats . All out elections in a few councils on new boundaries will also distort the results Knowsley currently 63 Labour councillors will go down to 45 again all Labour . Is that No change or a loss of 18 Winchester 32 Con 23 Lib Dem 2 Labour goes down to 45 perhaps Con 25 Lib Dem 20 The one Labour ward is dismembered so have they lost 2 councillors or is it no change as they would have had none if previous elections had been fought on the new boundaries . Forecasts are Lab minus 150 Rallings and Thrasher minus 151 Fisher Con plus 50 R and T plus 19 Fisher LDem plus 40 R and T plus 93 Fisher UKIP plus 40 R and T no forecast Fisher Others plus 20 R and T no forecast Fisher
FWIW my forecast Lab minus 110 Con plus 20 LDem plus 50 UKIP plus 20 Others plus 20
You're being very optimistic for the Lib Dems there. With the Conservatives up on 2012 in GE VI, and the Lib Dems down (still at only 5% with Opinium, though I think that's lowside), I really don't see where the scope for many gains is going to come from.
It's true the by-elections have been moderately successful for the Lib Dems recently but many of those are baseline 2013/14. Coming off 2012 will be the hardest round of the cycle for Team Farron. Besides, by-elections, where the Lib Dems can focus resources and where there's an (even) lower turnout favour their campaigning capacity.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a net negative for the Lib Dems.
Ken appears to handed over his shovel to Diane Abbott, - keep on digging loopy.
Diane was really very grumpy and rattled. I haven't seen her like that in a very long time. McDonnell isn't getting anywhere near this. He's marked his territory by saying they all have to be thrown out. I'm guessing he's hoping all of Jezza's and Diane's Muslim/anti-Semite mates are defenestrated - leaving his intact ... ready for a leadership takeover.
Diane annoys the hell out of me, IMHO she's just about as racist as Nick Griffin yet she is still tolerated by the Labour Party. They really need to get rid of the lot of them, but that's never happening under Corbyn and McDonnell.
The old Labour WWC trade unionists must be wondering WTF has happened to the workers' party.
Diane exploits the unwritten rule of modern Britain. Only White People Can Be Racists.
No - that is a core rule of the SJW movement and is infecting public discourse around the world.
You only have to look at a recent debate at one of the Ivy League Universities in the US - where black students were calling on a white participant to commit suicide if he wanted to prove how anti-racist he was - as his life did not matter.
It is quite terrifying when you look at how twisted things have become. And it is all coming from the regressive Left.
Astonishing that man has not been prosecuted. The Hopisen piece about him was absolutely devastating.
Labour so untouchable.
At the very least there had been a series of breaches of fiduciary duty for which he should be held to account. Enough to bankrupt him and get the slime bag out of the Commons.
The Labour party where able to pick up 800 Seats in 2012, but are only likely to loos 150-200 now for what I can see as 3 reasons:
2012 included Scotland and Wails, this time the elections in these to places have been delayed so as to not clash with the devolved election.
Also 2012 had an implosion of LibDems, I cant see many of these being recaptured.
In the remaining seats that Lab took from Con in 2012, they will have some equivalent of the 'double incumbency bounce' I don't know how effective this will be, but may have some impact on the most marginal seats.
The Scotland and Wales point is a good one although those elections seem to promise little good news for Labour.
Not so sure about there not being another Lib Dem implosion. Their share of the vote could fall from 16% to 7 or 8%, basically half.
Do you get an incumbency bounce in LG? I suppose you might if you were a hard working councillor etc but how many people know who their local councillor is? The other way of looking at it is that Labour's exceptional results in 2008 mean that quite a lot of their seats are in what might normally be unfavourable territory.
The 16% theena.
Nott.
Even last year the Lib Dems achieved around 5% more votes in the local elections than they did in the GE . They are defending around 270 seats . All out elections in a few councils on new boundaries will also distort the results Knowsley currently 63 Labour councillors will go down to 45 again all Labour . Is that No change or a loss of 18 Winchester 32 Con 23 Lib Dem 2 Labour goes down to 45 perhaps Con 25 Lib Dem 20 The one Labour ward is dismembered so have they lost 2 councillors or is it no change as they would have had none if previous elections had been fought on the new boundaries . Forecasts are Lab minus 150 Rallings and Thrasher minus 151 Fisher Con plus 50 R and T plus 19 Fisher LDem plus 40 R and T plus 93 Fisher UKIP plus 40 R and T no forecast Fisher Others plus 20 R and T no forecast Fisher
FWIW my forecast Lab minus 110 Con plus 20 LDem plus 50 UKIP plus 20 Others plus 20
Honestly, I have to applaud Labour's much bemoaned press and spin team - based off over confident tories and glum predictions from Labour, your and tne R and T prediction don't even look that bad to me at first glance. I'm sure it is bad, but they've done a good job preparing people for it at least.
The Scotland and Wales point is a good one although those elections seem to promise little good news for Labour.
Not so sure about there not being another Lib Dem implosion. Their share of the vote could fall from 16% to 7 or 8%, basically half.
Do you get an incumbency bounce in LG? I suppose you might if you were a hard working councillor etc but how many people know who their local councillor is? The other way of looking at it is that Labour's exceptional results in 2008 mean that quite a lot of their seats are in what might normally be unfavourable territory.
The 16% the Lib Dems scored was their local election NEV; they were polling about 11-12% in GE VI at the time. So if they're currently polling about 7-8% in GE intention, that should translate to about 12% in their local election performance given the boost they traditionally get in that arena.
Not sure that works to that extent any more. They must have something in excess of 350 seats up this time and I would not be surprised if they were around 200 by the end of the night.
Even last year the Lib Dems achieved around 5% more votes in the local elections than they did in the GE . They are defending around 270 seats . All out elections in a few councils on new boundaries will also distort the results Knowsley currently 63 Labour councillors will go down to 45 again all Labour . Is that No change or a loss of 18 Winchester 32 Con 23 Lib Dem 2 Labour goes down to 45 perhaps Con 25 Lib Dem 20 The one Labour ward is dismembered so have they lost 2 councillors or is it no change as they woulplus 20
You're being very optimistic for the Lib Dems there. With the Conservatives up on 2012 in GE VI, and the Lib Dems down (still at only 5% with Opinium, though I think that's lowside), I really don't see where the scope for many gains is going to come from.
It's true the by-elections have been moderately successful for the Lib Dems recently but many of those are baseline 2013/14. Coming off 2012 will be the hardest round of the cycle for Team Farron. Besides, by-elections, where the Lib Dems can focus resources and where there's an (even) lower turnout favour their campaigning capacity.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a net negative for the Lib Dems.
Was it the case that the LDs did ok in by-elections in the last parliament but the big rounds of locals in May they did poorly?
Bod on Sky just revealed just how seriously Team Corbyn takes this stuff....They called in Naz Shah, said sit there we will be in a mo we have something more important to deal with, 40 minutes later they had forgotten about here and she had to go and find them.
She would know a smear if she saw one, you'd hope, given her use of them.
Labour, and probably others, has a problem with anti semitism is no smear, there is evidence to support it and the question is how much if one. Labour as a whole is antisemitic would count as a smear, as it is clearly false.
I don't believe it has. It's a storm being whipped up by people with an agenda mainly on the right with an appaling history of racism and anti semitism.
Except that's provably nonsense, since loads of Labour figures have been whipping up this storm, and so insisting this is about people on the right is conspiracy level thinking.
It also presumes that since people 'whipping' this up do have other factors in mind, eg damaging Corbyn, there is nothing of substance to what they are whipping up, except that too is provably nonsense as we have very clear and offensive comments from Ken and others, which some like Shah have at least acknowledged are offensive, showing there is a problem. People can quibble over if it is a big problem or if the problem is being magnified right now, but a problem there is. And no that doesn't mean there is not a problem elsewhere.
Even people with an agenda, even opponents with an agenda, can find a genuine point to raise. Such it is with this, and when it is dismissed purely on the basis that those people have an agenda, without addressing the fact of what people like Ken and his many defenders have said and believed, it is at best lazy and complacent.
After the Charlie Hebdo affair where every nation on earth walked arm in arm in defense of everyone's right to offend are we really losing our heads over Ken Livingtone and Naz Shah?
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
The 16% the Lib Dems scored was their local election NEV; they were polling about 11-12% in GE VI at the time. So if they're currently polling about 7-8% in GE intention, that should translate to about 12% in their local election performance given the boost they traditionally get in that arena.
Not sure that works to that extent any more. They must have something in excess of 350 seats up this time and I would not be surprised if they were around 200 by the end of the night.
Even last year the Lib Dems achieved around 5% more votes in the local elections than they did in the GE . They are defending around 270 seats . All out elections in a few councils on new boundaries will also distort the results Knowsley currently 63 Labour councillors will go down to 45 again all Labour . Is that No change or a loss of 18 Winchester 32 Con 23 Lib Dem 2 Labour goes down to 45 perhaps Con 25 Lib Dem 20 The one Labour ward is dismembered so have they lost 2 councillors or is it no change as they would have had none if previous elections had been fought on the new boundaries . Forecasts are Lab minus 150 Rallings and Thrasher minus 151 Fisher Con plus 50 R and T plus 19 Fisher LDem plus 40 R and T plus 93 Fisher UKIP plus 40 R and T no forecast Fisher Others plus 20 R and T no forecast Fisher
FWIW my forecast Lab minus 110 Con plus 20 LDem plus 50 UKIP plus 20 Others plus 20
You're being very optimistic for the Lib Dems there. With the Conservatives up on 2012 in GE VI, and the Lib Dems down (still at only 5% with Opinium, though I think that's lowside), I really don't see where the scope for many gains is going to come from.
It's true the by-elections have been moderately successful for the Lib Dems recently but many of those are baseline 2013/14. Coming off 2012 will be the hardest round of the cycle for Team Farron. Besides, by-elections, where the Lib Dems can focus resources and where there's an (even) lower turnout favour their campaigning capacity.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a net negative for the Lib Dems.
Fisher whose methodology is completely different to R and T and not based on local by elections is more optimistic in his Lib Dem forecast than mine . some of my forecast gains are seats last fought in 2014/2015 in councils with all out elections so the full base line is not 2012 only mostly so . 50 net gains is only 1 gain roughly in half the councils with elections .
If Labour have a night of catastrophes (3rd in Scotland, losing their majority in Wales, 300 LG losses) plus a comfortable Khan victory in London common sense suggests that Corbyn gets Khan out of the HoC sharpish. Even Corbyn is not stupid enough to keep him hanging around.
Tooting 2015 general election
Labour Sadiq Khan 47.2% +3.7%
Conservative Dan Watkins 41.9% +3.4%
Green Party Esther Obiri-Darko 4.1% +2.9%
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling 3.9% -10.9%
UKIP Przemek De Skuba Skwirczynski 2.9% +1.6%
Who cares if they lose the seat? Corbyn will be worrying about losing his job. And Khan will be the closest thing to a winner around. Get rid. Sharpish.
Ken appears to handed over his shovel to Diane Abbott, - keep on digging loopy.
Diane was really very grumpy and rattled. I haven't seen her like that in a very long time. McDonnell isn't getting anywhere near this. He's marked his territory by saying they all have to be thrown out. I'm guessing he's hoping all of Jezza's and Diane's Muslim/anti-Semite mates are defenestrated - leaving his intact ... ready for a leadership takeover.
Diane annoys the hell out of me, IMHO she's just about as racist as Nick Griffin yet she is still tolerated by the Labour Party. They really need to get rid of the lot of them, but that's never happening under Corbyn and McDonnell.
The old Labour WWC trade unionists must be wondering WTF has happened to the workers' party.
Diane exploits the unwritten rule of modern Britain. Only White People Can Be Racists.
No - that is a core rule of the SJW movement and is infecting public discourse around the world.
You only have to look at a recent debate at one of the Ivy League Universities in the US - where black students were calling on a white participant to commit suicide if he wanted to prove how anti-racist he was - as his life did not matter.
It is quite terrifying when you look at how twisted things have become. And it is all coming from the regressive Left.
He is a truly unpleasant and intellectually dishonest young man - and Oxford should have sent him down as he is clearly not up to the demands of an Oxford Law degree.
This is a clip from the Harvard debate: it shows how awful things have got
Ken appears to handed over his shovel to Diane Abbott, - keep on digging loopy.
Diane was really very grumpy and rattled. I haven't seen her like that in a very long time. McDonnell isn't getting anywhere near this. He's marked his territory by saying they all have to be thrown out. I'm guessing he's hoping all of Jezza's and Diane's Muslim/anti-Semite mates are defenestrated - leaving his intact ... ready for a leadership takeover.
Diane annoys the hell out of me, IMHO she's just about as racist as Nick Griffin yet she is still tolerated by the Labour Party. They really need to get rid of the lot of them, but that's never happening under Corbyn and McDonnell.
The old Labour WWC trade unionists must be wondering WTF has happened to the workers' party.
Diane exploits the unwritten rule of modern Britain. Only White People Can Be Racists.
No - that is a core rule of the SJW movement and is infecting public discourse around the world.
You only have to look at a recent debate at one of the Ivy League Universities in the US - where black students were calling on a white participant to commit suicide if he wanted to prove how anti-racist he was - as his life did not matter.
It is quite terrifying when you look at how twisted things have become. And it is all coming from the regressive Left.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
England didn't want those 'foreigners' up in Scotland telling them what to do.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
I think too much is made of the Tory surge in Lib Dem seats. In almost all cases the Lib Dem vote fell by far more than the Tory vote rose.
It may all be relative when dealing with a gargantuan clusterfuck, but the Sunday Times reports that Tom Watson's handling of the fall-out from Ken's Hug-a-Hitler fiasco got good reviews within Labour circles.
May have betting implications... Although, for the life of me, I don't see how you would sell a guy with 99.76% slug DNA as our next prime Minister...
Astonishing that man has not been prosecuted. The Hopisen piece about him was absolutely devastating.
Labour so untouchable.
At the very least there had been a series of breaches of fiduciary duty for which he should be held to account. Enough to bankrupt him and get the slime bag out of the Commons.
I missed the town in question, but journalist on Sky panel just said SLAB candidate in [somewhere with the biggest majority] had to go to the local synagogue to say he wasn't anti-Semetic. She was gobsmacked by it all - it was terrible messaging for Labour/worse possible associations.
I tried. The phrase "In denial" came to mind and I had enough after a few minutes.
But I think Andrew Neil was somewhat in denial too. This started with social media activity by Muslim party activists, but he said nothing about Labour's involvement with, some might say dependence on, communities where support for such views is common, preferring to focus on Ken Livingston and the 80's. It was an elephant in the room.
Ken appears to handed over his shovel to Diane Abbott, - keep on digging loopy.
Diane was really very grumpy and rattled. I haven't seen her like that in a very long time. McDonnell isn't getting anywhere near this. He's marked his territory by saying they all have to be thrown out. I'm guessing he's hoping all of Jezza's and Diane's Muslim/anti-Semite mates are defenestrated - leaving his intact ... ready for a leadership takeover.
Diane annoys the hell out of me, IMHO she's just about as racist as Nick Griffin yet she is still tolerated by the Labour Party. They really need to get rid of the lot of them, but that's never happening under Corbyn and McDonnell.
The old Labour WWC trade unionists must be wondering WTF has happened to the workers' party.
Diane exploits the unwritten rule of modern Britain. Only White People Can Be Racists.
No - that is a core rule of the SJW movement and is infecting public discourse around the world.
You only have to look at a recent debate at one of the Ivy League Universities in the US - where black students were calling on a white participant to commit suicide if he wanted to prove how anti-racist he was - as his life did not matter.
It is quite terrifying when you look at how twisted things have become. And it is all coming from the regressive Left.
He is a truly unpleasant and intellectually dishonest young man - and Oxford should have sent him down as he is clearly not up to the demands of an Oxford Law degree.
This is a clip from the Harvard debate: it shows how awful things have got
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
England didn't want those 'foreigners' up in Scotland telling them what to do.
Certainly what I heard solidly on the doorsteps of Torbay, formerly a LibDem seat...
Re Abbott...You know it is a terrible interview when Marr "You have close family members who are Labour Party members*" starts to really lose it at a fellow Labourite and basically shouts "YOU ARE WRONG" at you.
If Labour have a night of catastrophes (3rd in Scotland, losing their majority in Wales, 300 LG losses) plus a comfortable Khan victory in London common sense suggests that Corbyn gets Khan out of the HoC sharpish. Even Corbyn is not stupid enough to keep him hanging around.
Tooting 2015 general election
Labour Sadiq Khan 47.2% +3.7%
Conservative Dan Watkins 41.9% +3.4%
Green Party Esther Obiri-Darko 4.1% +2.9%
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling 3.9% -10.9%
UKIP Przemek De Skuba Skwirczynski 2.9% +1.6%
Who cares if they lose the seat? Corbyn will be worrying about losing his job. And Khan will be the closest thing to a winner around. Get rid. Sharpish.
Tooting is an inner city London seat, I can't see Labour losing it and certainly not pre EU ref
Of course it is Khan who controls the Tooting byelection timetable. The writ cannot be moved until he resigns. He may well want to dawdle over handing in his resignation until his local party is ready for a byelection.
Astonishing that man has not been prosecuted. The Hopisen piece about him was absolutely devastating.
It has similar tones to the BHS scandal...
Actually much worse. Green took cash out of a business that he (or his wife) owned. It was their cash and there was no reason not to at the time. A decade later in a very different world that cash would have come in handy.
This was never Lavery's money. The trustees had it for the benefit of others, many of whom were facing real hardship. It's disgusting and shameful.
She would know a smear if she saw one, you'd hope, given her use of them.
Labour, and probably others, has a problem with anti semitism is no smear, there is evidence to support it and the question is how much if one. Labour as a whole is antisemitic would count as a smear, as it is clearly false.
I don't believe it has. It's a storm being whipped up by people with an agenda mainly on the right with an appaling history of racism and anti semitism.
Except that's provably nonsense, since loads of Labour figures have been whipping up this storm, and so insisting this is about people on the right is conspiracy level thinking.
It also presumes that since people 'whipping' this up do have other factors in mind, eg damaging Corbyn, there is nothing of substance to what they are whipping up, except that too is provably nonsense as we have very clear and offensive comments from Ken and others, which some like Shah have at least acknowledged are offensive, showing there is a problem. People can quibble over if it is a big problem or if the problem is being magnified right now, but a problem there is. And no that doesn't mean there is not a problem elsewhere.
Even people with an agenda, even opponents with an agenda, can find a genuine point to raise. Such it is with this, and when it is dismissed purely on the basis that those people have an agenda, without addressing the fact of what people like Ken and his many defenders have said and believed, it is at best lazy and complacent.
After the Charlie Hebdo affair where every nation on earth walked arm in arm in defense of everyone's right to offend are we really losing our heads over Ken Livingtone and Naz Shah?
The attacks in Paris were, in part, directed at a Jewish business. Antisemitism was absolutely part of the motivations of the perpetrators of those murderous incidents. It is at the core of Islamist thinking. Sadly it is all-too-prevalent in more mainstream Islamic thinking.
Livingstone and Shah have not engaged in violent acts - but they are, in their own ways, promoting an agenda which has links to those who do regard violence as a way forward.
It is absolutely right that we are losing our heads over their behaviour. We cannot and must not tolerate it. The fact that many on the Left are trying to explain away what has happened is scary.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
I think too much is made of the Tory surge in Lib Dem seats. In almost all cases the Lib Dem vote fell by far more than the Tory vote rose.
Agree; I think far too many of us weren’t motivated as a result of the coalition, the many illiberal things that were done and the duplicity of Cameron and his allies, particularly over electoral reform.
If Labour have a night of catastrophes (3rd in Scotland, losing their majority in Wales, 300 LG losses) plus a comfortable Khan victory in London common sense suggests that Corbyn gets Khan out of the HoC sharpish. Even Corbyn is not stupid enough to keep him hanging around.
Tooting 2015 general election
Labour Sadiq Khan 47.2% +3.7%
Conservative Dan Watkins 41.9% +3.4%
Green Party Esther Obiri-Darko 4.1% +2.9%
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling 3.9% -10.9%
UKIP Przemek De Skuba Skwirczynski 2.9% +1.6%
Who cares if they lose the seat? Corbyn will be worrying about losing his job. And Khan will be the closest thing to a winner around. Get rid. Sharpish.
Tooting is an inner city London seat, I can't see Labour losing it and certainly not pre EU ref
A large part of the Tooting constituency is Earlsfield, Wandsworth and Balham, and can be quite leafy. Wandsworth Borough has a very Tory local council. It will not be a Labour walkover. Not natural kipper territory either.
If Labour have a night of catastrophes (3rd in Scotland, losing their majority in Wales, 300 LG losses) plus a comfortable Khan victory in London common sense suggests that Corbyn gets Khan out of the HoC sharpish. Even Corbyn is not stupid enough to keep him hanging around.
Tooting 2015 general election
Labour Sadiq Khan 47.2% +3.7%
Conservative Dan Watkins 41.9% +3.4%
Green Party Esther Obiri-Darko 4.1% +2.9%
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling 3.9% -10.9%
UKIP Przemek De Skuba Skwirczynski 2.9% +1.6%
Who cares if they lose the seat? Corbyn will be worrying about losing his job. And Khan will be the closest thing to a winner around. Get rid. Sharpish.
Tooting is an inner city London seat, I can't see Labour losing it and certainly not pre EU ref
A large part of the Tooting constituency is Earlsfield, Wandsworth and Balham, and can be quite leafy. Wandsworth Borough has a very Tory local council. It will not be a Labour walkover. Not natural kipper territory either.
It will be a comfortable hold, especially if it will only be held if Khan has already won the Mayoralty
Matt Forde Today is the 19th anniversary of Labour's greatest ever election victory. The party has gone from Blair and Brown to Livingstone and Hitler.
She would know a smear if she saw one, you'd hope, given her use of them.
Labour, and probably others, has a problem with anti semitism is no smear, there is evidence to support it and the question is how much if one. Labour as a whole is antisemitic would count as a smear, as it is clearly false.
I don't believe it has. It's a storm being whipped up by people with an agenda mainly on the right with an appaling history of racism and anti semitism.
Except that's provably nonsense, since loads of Labour figures have been whipping up this storm, and so insisting this is about people on the right is conspiracy level thinking.
It also presumes that since people 'whipping' this up do have other factors in mind, eg damaging Corbyn, there is nothing of substance to what they are whipping up, except that too is provably nonsense as we have very clear and offensive comments from Ken and others, which some like Shah have at least acknowledged are offensive, showing there is a problem. People can quibble over if it is a big problem or if the problem is being magnified right now, but a problem there is. And no that doesn't mean there is not a problem elsewhere.
Even people with an agenda, even opponents with an agenda, can find a genuine point to raise. Such it is with this, and when it is dismissed purely on the basis that those people have an agenda, without addressing the fact of what people like Ken and his many defenders have said and believed, it is at best lazy and complacent.
After the Charlie Hebdo affair where every nation on earth walked arm in arm in defense of everyone's right to offend are we really losing our heads over Ken Livingtone and Naz Shah?
People don't deserve to be killed or prosecuted merely for giving offence - that is not the same as being politically punished for saying racist things.
I don't happen to think people should be condemned for single incidents of thoughtless or careless language, where maybe they said something that might be racist in anger one time, or when very young, and they realise that was wrong and they were a fool. Ken, at least, appears to be a different matter entirely. Being a hateful idiot does not mean he should face legal punishment, but there's nothing wrong with him facing political consequences for it.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Probably, but I do think while things like that have little direct impact, they can subtly help in big ways - people vote by gut instinct a lot of the time, this is shown by how people will support/oppose a policy until they hear about who is proposing it, and there may well be many people who feel more comfortable voting Tory based off a general sense of what the party is like, or what the leader is like, on those types of issues.
Cameron wasn't feared by many people as an extreme right winger, and that probably shored up quite a few votes and helped Tory messages like the threat of SNP controlled Labour be more effective.
But which came first - did a few people think better of the Conservatives because of gay marriage and so were more willing to vote Conservative to stop a Sturgeon controlled EdM government ?
Or did a few people vote Conservative to stop a Sturgeon controlled EdM government and they say afterwards that gay marriage was what influenced their vote ?
I'd suspect rather more in the latter category as people like to appear 'progressive' when asked about their views.
Ken appears to handed over his shovel to Diane Abbott, - keep on digging loopy.
Diane was really very grumpy and rattled. I haven't seen her like that in a very long time. McDonnell isn't getting anywhere near this. He's marked his territory by saying they all have to be thrown out. I'm guessing he's hoping all of Jezza's and Diane's Muslim/anti-Semite mates are defenestrated - leaving his intact ... ready for a leadership takeover.
Diane annoys the hell out of me, IMHO she's just about as racist as Nick Griffin yet she is still tolerated by the Labour Party. They really need to get rid of the lot of them, but that's never happening under Corbyn and McDonnell.
The old Labour WWC trade unionists must be wondering WTF has happened to the workers' party.
Diane exploits the unwritten rule of modern Britain. Only White People Can Be Racists.
No - that is a core rule of the SJW movement and is infecting public discourse around the world.
You only have to look at a recent debate at one of the Ivy League Universities in the US - where black students were calling on a white participant to commit suicide if he wanted to prove how anti-racist he was - as his life did not matter.
It is quite terrifying when you look at how twisted things have become. And it is all coming from the regressive Left.
I am not sure that refusing to tip and bad manners are yet an offence!
The incident took place in South Africa, not the UK also.
It is not an offence, but it shows that he has such a distorted set of beliefs and an inability to engage in rational intellectual debate that he is not worthy of the opportunity of studying in Oxford.
The University can't take action because they would be scared of the backlash as he would cry racism so loudly that he would not allow reality to enter into the debate. But there should be no place for any student who displays such a disregard for intellectual honesty.
If Labour have a night of catastrophes (3rd in Scotland, losing their majority in Wales, 300 LG losses) plus a comfortable Khan victory in London common sense suggests that Corbyn gets Khan out of the HoC sharpish. Even Corbyn is not stupid enough to keep him hanging around.
Tooting 2015 general election
Labour Sadiq Khan 47.2% +3.7%
Conservative Dan Watkins 41.9% +3.4%
Green Party Esther Obiri-Darko 4.1% +2.9%
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling 3.9% -10.9%
UKIP Przemek De Skuba Skwirczynski 2.9% +1.6%
Who cares if they lose the seat? Corbyn will be worrying about losing his job. And Khan will be the closest thing to a winner around. Get rid. Sharpish.
Tooting is an inner city London seat, I can't see Labour losing it and certainly not pre EU ref
I don't think they would either. But that really isn't the point. By next weekend Corbyn may well be fighting for his political life.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
I think too much is made of the Tory surge in Lib Dem seats. In almost all cases the Lib Dem vote fell by far more than the Tory vote rose.
That would still mean the fear of the Tories winning was eclipsed by other factors, and if the Tories had not improved their perception in such seats, perhaps more would have stuck with the LDs even in such a dark time in order to keep them out?
If Labour have a night of catastrophes (3rd in Scotland, losing their majority in Wales, 300 LG losses) plus a comfortable Khan victory in London common sense suggests that Corbyn gets Khan out of the HoC sharpish. Even Corbyn is not stupid enough to keep him hanging around.
Tooting 2015 general election
Labour Sadiq Khan 47.2% +3.7%
Conservative Dan Watkins 41.9% +3.4%
Green Party Esther Obiri-Darko 4.1% +2.9%
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling 3.9% -10.9%
UKIP Przemek De Skuba Skwirczynski 2.9% +1.6%
Who cares if they lose the seat? Corbyn will be worrying about losing his job. And Khan will be the closest thing to a winner around. Get rid. Sharpish.
Tooting is an inner city London seat, I can't see Labour losing it and certainly not pre EU ref
I don't think they would either. But that really isn't the point. By next weekend Corbyn may well be fighting for his political life.
The Abbott interview has made things worse for Labour. Surely she has been in politics long enough to know better - but apparently not.
She lacks the basic communication skills necessary to formulate, sustain and express a clear argument without getting herself tied up in knots.
I hadn't realised that Labour currently has 12 members under suspension for antisemitic remarks. Just the tip of the iceberg, of course. But still very clear evidence that there is a significant grouping within Labour ranks who see no problem with holding and expressing such offensive and twisted beliefs.
As Jeremy Kyle would point out "you're still in love with him, aren't you?"
Of course it is Khan who controls the Tooting byelection timetable. The writ cannot be moved until he resigns. He may well want to dawdle over handing in his resignation until his local party is ready for a byelection.
Ken appears to handed over his shovel to Diane Abbott, - keep on digging loopy.
Diane was really very grumpy and rattled. I haven't seen her like that in a very long time. McDonnell isn't getting anywhere near this. He's marked his territory by saying they all have to be thrown out. I'm guessing he's hoping all of Jezza's and Diane's Muslim/anti-Semite mates are defenestrated - leaving his intact ... ready for a leadership takeover.
Diane annoys the hell out of me, IMHO she's just about as racist as Nick Griffin yet she is still tolerated by the Labour Party. They really need to get rid of the lot of them, but that's never happening under Corbyn and McDonnell.
The old Labour WWC trade unionists must be wondering WTF has happened to the workers' party.
Diane exploits the unwritten rule of modern Britain. Only White People Can Be Racists.
No - that is a core rule of the SJW movement and is infecting public discourse around the world.
You only have to look at a recent debate at one of the Ivy League Universities in the US - where black students were calling on a white participant to commit suicide if he wanted to prove how anti-racist he was - as his life did not matter.
It is quite terrifying when you look at how twisted things have become. And it is all coming from the regressive Left.
I am not sure that refusing to tip and bad manners are yet an offence!
The incident took place in South Africa, not the UK also.
It is not an offence, but it shows that he has such a distorted set of beliefs and an inability to engage in rational intellectual debate that he is not worthy of the opportunity of studying in Oxford.
The University can't take action because they would be scared of the backlash as he would cry racism so loudly that he would not allow reality to enter into the debate. But there should be no place for any student who displays such a disregard for intellectual honesty.
Of course, if he and his friend had trashed the place they could have claimed they were members of an Oxford Uni drinking club.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Probe.
But which came first - did a few people think better of the Conservatives because of gay marriage and so were more willing to vote Conservative to stop a Sturgeon controlled EdM government ?
Or did a few people vote Conservative to stop a Sturgeon controlled EdM government and they say afterwards that gay marriage was what influenced their vote ?
I'd suspect rather more in the latter category as people like to appear 'progressive' when asked about their views.
Hard to say. I don't think it is easy to measure such a thing - I just get the impression of so called Blue Liberals who were not appalled at the general idea of the Tories winning in their current guise. Something that always bothers me is the assumption of an anti-Tory block, as though all non-Tories are united in virulently opposing the Tories, and I think under Cameron the effectivenes of that block was even less than usual, even if not entirely down to detoxification, but issues people had with Labour as well, and a general LD collapse.
I think it was a factor, but how much I could not predict.
If Labour have a night of catastrophes (3rd in Scotland, losing their majority in Wales, 300 LG losses) plus a comfortable Khan victory in London common sense suggests that Corbyn gets Khan out of the HoC sharpish. Even Corbyn is not stupid enough to keep him hanging around.
Tooting 2015 general election
Labour Sadiq Khan 47.2% +3.7%
Conservative Dan Watkins 41.9% +3.4%
Green Party Esther Obiri-Darko 4.1% +2.9%
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling 3.9% -10.9%
UKIP Przemek De Skuba Skwirczynski 2.9% +1.6%
Who cares if they lose the seat? Corbyn will be worrying about losing his job. And Khan will be the closest thing to a winner around. Get rid. Sharpish.
Tooting is an inner city London seat, I can't see Labour losing it and certainly not pre EU ref
I don't think they would either. But that really isn't the point. By next weekend Corbyn may well be fighting for his political life.
If Labour have won the London mayoralty for the first time in 8 years Corbyn will certainly not be fighting for his political life, that will only happen if Goldsmith scores a shock win
It may all be relative when dealing with a gargantuan clusterfuck, but the Sunday Times reports that Tom Watson's handling of the fall-out from Ken's Hug-a-Hitler fiasco got good reviews within Labour circles.
May have betting implications... Although, for the life of me, I don't see how you would sell a guy with 99.76% slug DNA as our next prime Minister...
I gather we only share 50% with bananas. David Miliband is a shoo in
Dear oh dear, Corbyn's rallying his Trots at May Day March
Ken appears to handed over his shovel to Diane Abbott, - keep on digging loopy.
Diane was really very grumpy and rattled. I haven't seen her like that in a very long time. McDonnell isn't getting anywhere near this. He's marked his territory by saying they all have to be thrown out. I'm guessing he's hoping all of Jezza's and Diane's Muslim/anti-Semite mates are defenestrated - leaving his intact ... ready for a leadership takeover.
Diane annoys the hell out of me, IMHO she's just about as racist as Nick Griffin yet she is still tolerated by the Labour Party. They really need to get rid of the lot of them, but that's never happening under Corbyn and McDonnell.
The old Labour WWC trade unionists must be wondering WTF has happened to the workers' party.
Diane exploits the unwritten rule of modern Britain. Only White People Can Be Racists.
No - that is a core rule of the SJW movement and is infecting public discourse around the world.
You only have to look at a recent debate at one of the Ivy League Universities in the US - where black students were calling on a white participant to commit suicide if he wanted to prove how anti-racist he was - as his life did not matter.
It is quite terrifying when you look at how twisted things have become. And it is all coming from the regressive Left.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
England didn't want those 'foreigners' up in Scotland telling them what to do.
Certainly what I heard solidly on the doorsteps of Torbay, formerly a LibDem seat...
We can export to the world while retaining full, unfettered access to the single market. Giving that up for nothing in return - and there is absolutely nothing right now - makes no sense to me whatsoever.
--------------------------------
Well the government's own impact assessments suggest a regulatory cost of £33 billion per year. Other assessments are higher still.
You are also still completely focused on the 'market access' aspect of this, which are less dramatic than you imply and which is to miss important parts of the picture.
In particular, domestically-focused firms are also affected by the unnecessary EU regulatory burden and by not being able to source imports at the lowest costs due to EU trade barriers against the ROW. Consumers also suffer a loss in living standards due to the same reason - they are not getting the consumer goods they want at the lowest prices either.
There are efficiency gains to be had from 1) sourcing imports more cheaply 2) cutting away unnecessary regulation 3) diverting resources away from industries over-sized due to EU protection towards industries more competitive at world prices. These gains are potentially pretty large.
There are also efficiencies to be lost. It's a balance. What we know is that if we want Brexit to mean we gain significantly more control over immigration, we will lose our current level of access to the single market. The rest is speculation.
It may all be relative when dealing with a gargantuan clusterfuck, but the Sunday Times reports that Tom Watson's handling of the fall-out from Ken's Hug-a-Hitler fiasco got good reviews within Labour circles.
May have betting implications... Although, for the life of me, I don't see how you would sell a guy with 99.76% slug DNA as our next prime Minister...
I gather we only share 50% with bananas. David Miliband is a shoo in
Dear oh dear, Corbyn's rallying his Trots at May Day March
It really would add to the gaiety of the nation if he threw his hat in the ring for the bye election.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
It's the economy, stupid
Now where have I read those words today.
If it was gay marriage then why was the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove ?
Or are you and Lynton Crosby saying that gay marriage was a bigger issue in Morley, Telford and Gower than it was in Brighton & Hove ?
Now we all like to think that our own individual brilliance and beliefs are what bring us success.
But in reality its usually being in the right place at the right time.
The Conservatives won the 2015 by being in the right place at the right time - that being the alternative to a Sturgeon controlled EdM government.
Frank Field's speech is well worth reading in full to understand the argument for Labour Brexit voters. A thread on this by a Labour supporter outside London would be very interesting.
It is important, however, to recall just how significant the Labour haemorrhage has been to UKIP. What began as a trickle is now a mighty flood. In the 2010 general election UKIP had only managed to recruit 138,000 voters who previously had voted Labour. Compare that position now with the position in 2015. Nearly a million (931,000) Labour voters deserted their traditional party and put crosses against UKIP candidates. Almost a quarter of UKIP’s vote in 2015 came from voters who in the 2005 general election had voted Labour.
Frank Field's speech is well worth reading in full to understand the argument for Labour Brexit voters. A thread on this by a Labour supporter outside London would be very interesting.
It is important, however, to recall just how significant the Labour haemorrhage has been to UKIP. What began as a trickle is now a mighty flood. In the 2010 general election UKIP had only managed to recruit 138,000 voters who previously had voted Labour. Compare that position now with the position in 2015. Nearly a million (931,000) Labour voters deserted their traditional party and put crosses against UKIP candidates. Almost a quarter of UKIP’s vote in 2015 came from voters who in the 2005 general election had voted Labour.
If you are a UKIP voter who previously backed Labour you will already have switched, it is Tory Leave voters who are more likely to make the switch post EU ref
It may all be relative when dealing with a gargantuan clusterfuck, but the Sunday Times reports that Tom Watson's handling of the fall-out from Ken's Hug-a-Hitler fiasco got good reviews within Labour circles.
May have betting implications... Although, for the life of me, I don't see how you would sell a guy with 99.76% slug DNA as our next prime Minister...
I gather we only share 50% with bananas. David Miliband is a shoo in
Dear oh dear, Corbyn's rallying his Trots at May Day March
Ken appears to handed over his shovel to Diane Abbott, - keep on digging loopy.
Diane was really very grumpy and rattled. I haven't seen her like that in a very long time. McDonnell isn't getting anywhere near this. He's marked his territory by saying they all have to be thrown out. I'm guessing he's hoping all of Jezza's and Diane's Muslim/anti-Semite mates are defenestrated - leaving his intact ... ready for a leadership takeover.
Diane annoys the hell out of me, IMHO she's just about as racist as Nick Griffin yet she is still tolerated by the Labour Party. They really need to get rid of the lot of them, but that's never happening under Corbyn and McDonnell.
The old Labour WWC trade unionists must be wondering WTF has happened to the workers' party.
Diane exploits the unwritten rule of modern Britain. Only White People Can Be Racists.
No - that is a core rule of the SJW movement and is infecting public discourse around the world.
You only have to look at a recent debate at one of the Ivy League Universities in the US - where black students were calling on a white participant to commit suicide if he wanted to prove how anti-racist he was - as his life did not matter.
It is quite terrifying when you look at how twisted things have become. And it is all coming from the regressive Left.
I am not sure that refusing to tip and bad manners are yet an offence!
The incident took place in South Africa, not the UK also.
The University can't take action because they would be scared of the backlash as he would cry racism so loudly that he would not allow reality to enter into the debate. But there should be no place for any student who displays such a disregard for intellectual honesty.
The guy is obviously a dickhead, but in order to get a Rhodes scholarship he must be an intelligent dickhead.
There is also some truth to his criticism of the continued economic dominance of South Africa by white people more than 2 decades after apartheid ended. A waitress is clearly not part of that white elite though!
I would recommend visiting SA, it is an eyeopener, and legal segregation has largely morphed into economic segregation. I understand the anger, and can see the risk of a Zimbabwe type disintegration.
Media interviewers seem to have forgotten about Naz Shah's clear anti semitic tweets and are just talking about the historic facts claimed by Ken Livingstone which don't appear to be anti semitic.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
It's the economy, stupid
Now where have I read those words today.
If it was gay marriage then why was the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove ?
Or are you and Lynton Crosby saying that gay marriage was a bigger issue in Morley, Telford and Gower than it was in Brighton & Hove ?
Now we all like to think that our own individual brilliance and beliefs are what bring us success.
But in reality its usually being in the right place at the right time.
The Conservatives won the 2015 by being in the right place at the right time - that being the alternative to a Sturgeon controlled EdM government.
I really don’t understand about this hatred of Sturgeon. Capable, effective politician who looks after her electorate. We could do with more like her.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those s
It's the economy, stupid
Now where have I read those words today.
If it was gay marriage then why was the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove ?
Or are you and Lynton Crosby saying that gay marriage was a bigger issue in Morley, Telford and Gower than it was in Brighton & Hove ?
Now we all like to think that our own individual brilliance and beliefs are what bring us success.
But in reality its usually being in the right place at the right time.
The Conservatives won the 2015 by being in the right place at the right time - that being the alternative to a Sturgeon controlled EdM government.
I really don’t understand about this hatred of Sturgeon. Capable, effective politician who looks after her electorate. We could do with more like her.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
It's the economy, stupid
Now where have I read those words today.
If it was gay marriage then why was the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove ?
Or are you and Lynton Crosby saying that gay marriage was a bigger issue in Morley,
I really don’t understand about this hatred of Sturgeon. Capable, effective politician who looks after her electorate. We could do with more like her.
I don't think that there is English dislike of Sturgeon, or dislike for her social democratic politics. The issue was Scotland holding the UK to ransom over a devolution settlement. It got my dad voting Con in Romsey, even though he dislikes the Conservatives as a party.
The 16% the Lib Dems scored was their local election NEV; they were polling about 11-12% in GE VI at the time. So if they're currently polling about 7-8% in GE intention, that should translate to about 12% in their local election performance given the boost they traditionally get in that arena.
Not sure that works to that extent any more. They must have something in excess of 350 seats up this time and I would not be surprised if they were around 200 by the end of the night.
Even last year the Lib Dems achieved around 5% more votes in the local elections than they did in the GE . They are defending around 270 seats . All out elections in a few councils on new boundaries will also distort the results Knowsley currently 63 Labour councillors will go down to 45 again all Labour . Is that No change or a loss of 18 Winchester 32 Con 23 Lib Dem 2 Labour goes down to 45 perhaps Con 25 Lib Dem 20 The one Labour ward is dismembered so have they lost 2 councillors or is it no change as they would have had none if previous elections had been fought on the new boundaries . Forecasts are Lab minus 150 Rallings and Thrasher minus 151 Fisher Con plus 50 R and T plus 19 Fisher LDem plus 40 R and T plus 93 Fisher UKIP plus 40 R and T no forecast Fisher Others plus 20 R and T no forecast Fisher
FWIW my forecast Lab minus 110 Con plus 20 LDem plus 50 UKIP plus 20 Others plus 20
You're being very optimistic for the Lib Dems there. With the Conservatives up on 2012 in GE VI, and the Lib Dems down (still at only 5% with Opinium, though I think that's lowside), I really don't see where the scope for many gains is going to come from.
It's true the by-elections have been moderately successful for the Lib Dems recently but many of those are baseline 2013/14. Coming off 2012 will be the hardest round of the cycle for Team Farron. Besides, by-elections, where the Lib Dems can focus resources and where there's an (even) lower turnout favour their campaigning capacity.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a net negative for the Lib Dems.
Fisher whose methodology is completely different to R and T and not based on local by elections is more optimistic in his Lib Dem forecast than mine . some of my forecast gains are seats last fought in 2014/2015 in councils with all out elections so the full base line is not 2012 only mostly so . 50 net gains is only 1 gain roughly in half the councils with elections .
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
e little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microthe sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
It's the e
I really don’t understand about this hatred of Sturgeon. Capable, effective politician who looks after her electorate. We could do with more like her.
It's not the effective and capable bit that people didn't like, it was the 'looks after her electorate bit'. Non nationalist MPs are presumed, fairly or not, to reasonably have some regard to their responsibilities to the whole of the UK and not just their constituency or individual Home Nation. The SNP, quite reasonably, don't care about the UK as a whole but only about Scotland, and even if Sturgeon, who is very effective and capable, would not, one would hope, go out of her way to make things difficult for the rest of the UK, it simply doesn't factor into her priorities, even as a minor one.
We could do with more like her, it is true, but it's her priorities that were the problem in a SNP-Lab scenario.
The Scotland and Wales point is a good one although those elections seem to promise little good news for Labour.
Not so sure about there not being another Lib Dem implosion. Their share of the vote could fall from 16% to 7 or 8%, basically half.
Do you get an incumbency bounce in LG? I suppose you might if you were a hard working councillor etc but how many people know who their local councillor is? The other way of looking at it is that Labour's exceptional results in 2008 mean that quite a lot of their seats are in what might normally be unfavourable territory.
The 16% the Lib Dems scored was their local election NEV; they were polling about 11-12% in GE VI at the time. So if they're currently polling about 7-8% in GE intention, that should translate to about 12% in their local election performance given the boost they traditionally get in that arena.
Not sure that works to that extent any more. They must have something in excess of 350 seats up this time and I would not be surprised if they were around 200 by the end of the night.
Even last year the Lib Dems achieved around 5% more votes in the local elections than they did in the GE . They are defending around 270 seats . All out elections in a few councils on new boundaries will also distort the results Knowsley currently 63 Labour councillors will go down to 45 again all Labour . Is that No change or a loss of 18 Winchester 32 Con 23 Lib Dem 2 Labour goes down to 45 perhaps Con 25 Lib Dem 20 The one Labour ward is dismembered so have they lost 2 councillors or is it no change as they woulplus 20
You're being very optimistic for the Lib Dems there. With the Conservatives up on 2012 in GE VI, and the Lib Dems down (still at only 5% with Opinium, though I think that's lowside), I really don't see where the scope for many gains is going to come from.
It's true the by-elections have been moderately successful for the Lib Dems recently but many of those are baseline 2013/14. Coming off 2012 will be the hardest round of the cycle for Team Farron. Besides, by-elections, where the Lib Dems can focus resources and where there's an (even) lower turnout favour their campaigning capacity.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a net negative for the Lib Dems.
Was it the case that the LDs did ok in by-elections in the last parliament but the big rounds of locals in May they did poorly?
I don't know the comparative percentages. Gains/losses aren't that meaningful as the 'cliffedge' drop-off worked against the Lib Dems throughout the cycle apart from in 2015, which was affected by the GE turnout.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
It's the economy, stupid
Now where have I read those words today.
If it was gay marriage then why was the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove ?
Or are you and Lynton Crosby saying that gay marriage was a bigger issue in Morley, Telford and Gower than it was in Brighton & Hove ?
Now we all like to think that our own individual brilliance and beliefs are what bring us success.
But in reality its usually being in the right place at the right time.
The Conservatives won the 2015 by being in the right place at the right time - that being the alternative to a Sturgeon controlled EdM government.
I really don’t understand about this hatred of Sturgeon. Capable, effective politician who looks after her electorate. We could do with more like her.
Its not hatred its fear.
Sturgeon's looking after her electorate is frightening to swing voters in marginal English and Welsh constituencies if its to be based on their money.
' Former Lib Dem MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, Roger Williams, says voters were "pushed" into voting for the Conservatives because they were afraid of the influence of the SNP.
"I do believe it was the fear that the people of Brecon and Radnorshire had, and right across Wales as well, that the Scottish National Party would have a big influence of the governance in the UK," Mr Williams aid.
"They were really afraid of that and were pushed into voting Conservative to have a Conservative majority government." '
She would know a smear if she saw one, you'd hope, given her use of them.
I don't believe it has. It's a storm being whipped up by people with an agenda mainly on the right with an appaling history of racism and anti semitism.
Except that's provably nonsense, since loads of Labour figures have been whipping up this storm, and so insisting this is about people on the right is conspiracy level thinking.
Even people with an agenda, even opponents with an agenda, can find a genuine point to raise. Such it is with this, and when it is dismissed purely on the basis that those people have an agenda, without addressing the fact of what people like Ken and his many defenders have said and believed, it is at best lazy and complacent.
After the Charlie Hebdo affair where every nation on earth walked arm in arm in defense of everyone's right to offend are we really losing our heads over Ken Livingtone and Naz Shah?
The attacks in Paris were, in part, directed at a Jewish business. Antisemitism was absolutely part of the motivations of the perpetrators of those murderous incidents. It is at the core of Islamist thinking. Sadly it is all-too-prevalent in more mainstream Islamic thinking.
Livingstone and Shah have not engaged in violent acts - but they are, in their own ways, promoting an agenda which has links to those who do regard violence as a way forward.
It is absolutely right that we are losing our heads over their behaviour. We cannot and must not tolerate it. The fact that many on the Left are trying to explain away what has happened is scary.
But it wasn't about racism. It was about free speech. Why aren't the same people who were saying 'WE ARE CHARLIE not now saying "we are Ken"? It seems very selective to me.
Why are we hearing the Likud Israeli ambassador lead all the news bulletins saying 'racism in the Labour Party is very troubling' quoting something he said on Marr. Two Likud Ministers called for 'a genocide' in Gaza. Didn't Marr think it appropriate to ask why the two Israeli ministers were still ministers?
The Abbott interview has made things worse for Labour. Surely she has been in politics long enough to know better - but apparently not.
She lacks the basic communication skills necessary to formulate, sustain and express a clear argument without getting herself tied up in knots.
I hadn't realised that Labour currently has 12 members under suspension for antisemitic remarks. Just the tip of the iceberg, of course. But still very clear evidence that there is a significant grouping within Labour ranks who see no problem with holding and expressing such offensive and twisted beliefs.
As Jeremy Kyle would point out "you're still in love with him, aren't you?"
Nick Cohen writes on the depth of all this in Observer today.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
I really don’t understand about this hatred of Sturgeon. Capable, effective politician who looks after her electorate. We could do with more like her.
I don't think that there is English dislike of Sturgeon, or dislike for her social democratic politics. The issue was Scotland holding the UK to ransom over a devolution settlement. It got my dad voting Con in Romsey, even though he dislikes the Conservatives as a party.
Think you mean the paranoia of people in England thinking that 8% of population can hold anybody to ransom. More like the thought that they were going to make sure those uppity Scots had no right to a vote in a democracy. Pathetic.
It may all be relative when dealing with a gargantuan clusterfuck, but the Sunday Times reports that Tom Watson's handling of the fall-out from Ken's Hug-a-Hitler fiasco got good reviews within Labour circles.
May have betting implications... Although, for the life of me, I don't see how you would sell a guy with 99.76% slug DNA as our next prime Minister...
I gather we only share 50% with bananas. David Miliband is a shoo in
Dear oh dear, Corbyn's rallying his Trots at May Day March
Happy May Day, my fellow Comrade PBers!
Mayday, Mayday, Mayday, that is the cry of today's Labour Party.
Roger..Maybe the two Lukid Ministers were saying that as rockets from the Gaza were exploding in Israeli villages..or maybe they had seen the newsreels of Hamas throwing gays off roof tops..all in the heat of the moment of course.
Comments
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
I think an increased number of seats on a reduced share of the vote seems unlikely.
You don't get me, I'm part of the union
You don't get me, I'm part of the union
Til the day I die
Til the day I die
It also presumes that since people 'whipping' this up do have other factors in mind, eg damaging Corbyn, there is nothing of substance to what they are whipping up, except that too is provably nonsense as we have very clear and offensive comments from Ken and others, which some like Shah have at least acknowledged are offensive, showing there is a problem. People can quibble over if it is a big problem or if the problem is being magnified right now, but a problem there is. And no that doesn't mean there is not a problem elsewhere.
Even people with an agenda, even opponents with an agenda, can find a genuine point to raise. Such it is with this, and when it is dismissed purely on the basis that those people have an agenda, without addressing the fact of what people like Ken and his many defenders have said and believed, it is at best lazy and complacent.
I agree that the stated certainty to vote are a bit implausuble, but they usually are in polls. I see very little to suggest that turnout will affect the Leave/Remain balance by much.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Cameron wasn't feared by many people as an extreme right winger, and that probably shored up quite a few votes and helped Tory messages like the threat of SNP controlled Labour be more effective.
Labour
Sadiq Khan
47.2% +3.7%
Conservative
Dan Watkins
41.9% +3.4%
Green Party
Esther Obiri-Darko
4.1% +2.9%
Liberal Democrat
Philip Ling
3.9% -10.9%
UKIP
Przemek De Skuba Skwirczynski
2.9% +1.6%
She lacks the basic communication skills necessary to formulate, sustain and express a clear argument without getting herself tied up in knots.
I hadn't realised that Labour currently has 12 members under suspension for antisemitic remarks. Just the tip of the iceberg, of course. But still very clear evidence that there is a significant grouping within Labour ranks who see no problem with holding and expressing such offensive and twisted beliefs.
It's true the by-elections have been moderately successful for the Lib Dems recently but many of those are baseline 2013/14. Coming off 2012 will be the hardest round of the cycle for Team Farron. Besides, by-elections, where the Lib Dems can focus resources and where there's an (even) lower turnout favour their campaigning capacity.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a net negative for the Lib Dems.
Two thirds of people perceive either benefit or no added risk generally, and close to 80% perceive no personal risk.
Those that do perceive risk are London, Scotland, young people, LIb Lab Left etc. The same losers' coalition as last May.
Oldies (property owning, pension loaded, actually vote) overwhelmingly for Leave.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
This is a clip from the Harvard debate: it shows how awful things have got
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RC-Cqkq6zWc
The incident took place in South Africa, not the UK also.
May have betting implications... Although, for the life of me, I don't see how you would sell a guy with 99.76% slug DNA as our next prime Minister...
* Dianne's words
This was never Lavery's money. The trustees had it for the benefit of others, many of whom were facing real hardship. It's disgusting and shameful.
Livingstone and Shah have not engaged in violent acts - but they are, in their own ways, promoting an agenda which has links to those who do regard violence as a way forward.
It is absolutely right that we are losing our heads over their behaviour. We cannot and must not tolerate it. The fact that many on the Left are trying to explain away what has happened is scary.
It's a shame the Witchsmeller can't sniff out anti-semitism.
Today is the 19th anniversary of Labour's greatest ever election victory. The party has gone from Blair and Brown to Livingstone and Hitler.
I don't happen to think people should be condemned for single incidents of thoughtless or careless language, where maybe they said something that might be racist in anger one time, or when very young, and they realise that was wrong and they were a fool. Ken, at least, appears to be a different matter entirely. Being a hateful idiot does not mean he should face legal punishment, but there's nothing wrong with him facing political consequences for it.
Or did a few people vote Conservative to stop a Sturgeon controlled EdM government and they say afterwards that gay marriage was what influenced their vote ?
I'd suspect rather more in the latter category as people like to appear 'progressive' when asked about their views.
The University can't take action because they would be scared of the backlash as he would cry racism so loudly that he would not allow reality to enter into the debate. But there should be no place for any student who displays such a disregard for intellectual honesty.
I think it was a factor, but how much I could not predict.
Dear oh dear, Corbyn's rallying his Trots at May Day March
Now where have I read those words today.
If it was gay marriage then why was the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove ?
Or are you and Lynton Crosby saying that gay marriage was a bigger issue in Morley, Telford and Gower than it was in Brighton & Hove ?
Now we all like to think that our own individual brilliance and beliefs are what bring us success.
But in reality its usually being in the right place at the right time.
The Conservatives won the 2015 by being in the right place at the right time - that being the alternative to a Sturgeon controlled EdM government.
http://labourlist.org/2016/04/frank-field-the-eu-vote-immigration-low-pay-and-the-ukip-threat-to-labour/
Old Communists never let an Anti-Semite scandal get in the way of a May Day march.
There is also some truth to his criticism of the continued economic dominance of South Africa by white people more than 2 decades after apartheid ended. A waitress is clearly not part of that white elite though!
I would recommend visiting SA, it is an eyeopener, and legal segregation has largely morphed into economic segregation. I understand the anger, and can see the risk of a Zimbabwe type disintegration.
We could do with more like her, it is true, but it's her priorities that were the problem in a SNP-Lab scenario.
Sturgeon's looking after her electorate is frightening to swing voters in marginal English and Welsh constituencies if its to be based on their money.
' Former Lib Dem MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, Roger Williams, says voters were "pushed" into voting for the Conservatives because they were afraid of the influence of the SNP.
"I do believe it was the fear that the people of Brecon and Radnorshire had, and right across Wales as well, that the Scottish National Party would have a big influence of the governance in the UK," Mr Williams aid.
"They were really afraid of that and were pushed into voting Conservative to have a Conservative majority government." '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000068
Why are we hearing the Likud Israeli ambassador lead all the news bulletins saying 'racism in the Labour Party is very troubling' quoting something he said on Marr. Two Likud Ministers called for 'a genocide' in Gaza. Didn't Marr think it appropriate to ask why the two Israeli ministers were still ministers?
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/726735635369828353