And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
It's the economy, stupid
Now where have I read those words today.
If it was gay marriage then why was the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove ?
Or are you and Lynton Crosby saying that gay marriage was a bigger issue in Morley, Telford and Gower than it was in Brighton & Hove ?
Now we all like to think that our own individual brilliance and beliefs are what bring us success.
But in reality its usually being in the right place at the right time.
The Conservatives won the 2015 by being in the right place at the right time - that being the alternative to a Sturgeon controlled EdM government.
I really don’t understand about this hatred of Sturgeon. Capable, effective politician who looks after her electorate. We could do with more like her.
Its not hatred its fear.
Sturgeon's looking after her electorate is frightening to swing voters in marginal English and Welsh constituencies if its to be based on their money.
' Former Lib Dem MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, Roger Williams, says voters were "pushed" into voting for the Conservatives because they were afraid of the influence of the SNP.
"I do believe it was the fear that the people of Brecon and Radnorshire had, and right across Wales as well, that the Scottish National Party would have a big influence of the governance in the UK," Mr Williams aid.
"They were really afraid of that and were pushed into voting Conservative to have a Conservative majority government." '
It may all be relative when dealing with a gargantuan clusterfuck, but the Sunday Times reports that Tom Watson's handling of the fall-out from Ken's Hug-a-Hitler fiasco got good reviews within Labour circles.
May have betting implications... Although, for the life of me, I don't see how you would sell a guy with 99.76% slug DNA as our next prime Minister...
I gather we only share 50% with bananas. David Miliband is a shoo in
Dear oh dear, Corbyn's rallying his Trots at May Day March
Happy May Day, my fellow Comrade PBers!
Mayday, Mayday, Mayday, that is the cry of today's Labour Party.
8% of the population with 56 Seats in Parliament providing the majority can hold a government to ransom. Salmond himself said that he would be writing the budget. It may have been meant in jest, but it did not appear so in Shire England. So instead of the SNP backing up Ed Millband, they sit impotent on the opposition benches.
Once the Holyrood elections are over, and provided Remain win, there can be some serious discussions of devolution, but for it to be sustainable it has to be a good deal for both parties, not a festering sore of further grievances.
I'm giving advice to Leave how to win, it's not my fault people choose not to read, the sensible Leavers agree with me. I've just noticed, Lord Cooper, founder of Populus and David Cameron's former Director of Strategy thinks like I do. Great minds think alike
Cooper pushed Cameron into that political act of stupidity a Govt backed same sex marriage act etc etc and lost tens of thousands of members. A sensible strategist would have gone for the route of the 1967 private members bill. Cooper has form in providing stupid advice to the Conservative party.
That strategy helped in part the Tories win a majority in 2015.
Was the cherry on the parfait of the detoxification project.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
I think too much is made of the Tory surge in Lib Dem seats. In almost all cases the Lib Dem vote fell by far more than the Tory vote rose.
Agree; I think far too many of us weren’t motivated as a result of the coalition, the many illiberal things that were done and the duplicity of Cameron and his allies, particularly over electoral reform.
Not sure there was a great duplicity as you put it. Truth is the Lib Dems made a huge blunder on electoral reform. Giving people a referendum on a system they themselves didn't believe in and quite possibly putting the cause of reform back for a generation.
Am I right in thinking that most of the English LG elections this time were last up in 2012? In those results Labour were on 38% and the Tories on 31. If you believe the Opinium poll that is completely reversed with the Tories up 7, Labour down 8, a swing of 7.5%.
The thing is that the forecasts I have seen for net gains and losses are significantly smaller than 2012. Those forecasts were made when the polling was closer but still involved a larger swing to the Tories (from 2012) than Labour achieved then.
Am I missing something? If the Opinium figures are even close to right, and I think they were in the field before Ken's brain fart, Labour are surely deep in dockside hooker territory facing huge losses against a government well past its honeymoon and deeply divided. Even if the swing was only half of what Opinium is indicating surely Labour are looking at losing 1,000+ councillors?
What you're missing is that the gains / losses of the 2012 local elections were based upon the change since the 2008 local elections:
So the swing in 2012 was 13% to Labour not the 2.5% you thought.
Right, I am not sure what the swing figures on the Wiki page for 2011 refer to but it is clearly not 2008. Possibly the 2010 election. So this will be a much smaller swing with fewer Labour losses. Still looks bad though.
It is a thought that in 2011 the Lib Dems were still on 16%. They could be in for another bad night.
Apart from in Scotland, won't 2012 be the baseline?
Sorry, according to Wiki the Lib Dem vote in 2012 was 16%. As Another_Richard has pointed out Wales does not have the LG elections either so there are fewer seats in play but it does seem to me that the Lib Dems are very likely to continue their trend of losing half to a third of all the seats they have up for grabs.
If he is right with his estimate of 60 seats a per cent then 200 losses looks very likely with more possible depending on whether or not the Tories are ahead in the popular vote or not. I suspect Labour are going to seriously struggle with differential turnout with some seriously demotivated supporters.
The LibDems always outperform at Local Elections in relation to their national poll ratings. I would expect them to be in the 11 -14% range on Thursday.
Roger..Maybe the two Lukid Ministers were saying that as rockets from the Gaza were exploding in Israeli villages..or maybe they had seen the newsreels of Hamas throwing gays off roof tops..all in the heat of the moment of course.
still does not justify it and means they cannot chastise other people for saying the same about them. What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
And it was the right thing to do. Just occasionally there is a reward for that (he said naively).
Considering the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove I doubt there was an electoral reward.
I suspect it didn't have much of an effect in Morley, Telford and Gower either.
It did. Was one of the little things that convinced Lib Dems to switch to the Tories.
Microscopically little.
Compared to the threat of a Sturgeon controlled EdM government it was like a candle compared to the sun.
Read up on how and why Sir Lynton Crosby targeted the Lib Dem held seats.
The Lib Dems in those seats preferred Cameron as PM for the following primary reasons, strong on the economy and The NHS, support for the international aid budget, and Cameron's support for same sex marriage.
It's the economy, stupid
Now where have I read those words today.
If it was gay marriage then why was the swing to Labour in Brighton & Hove ?
Or are you and Lynton Crosby saying that gay marriage was a bigger issue in Morley, Telford and Gower than it was in Brighton & Hove ?
Now we all like to think that our own individual brilliance and beliefs are what bring us success.
But in reality its usually being in the right place at the right time.
The Conservatives won the 2015 by being in the right place at the right time - that being the alternative to a Sturgeon controlled EdM government.
I really don’t understand about this hatred of Sturgeon. Capable, effective politician who looks after her electorate. We could do with more like her.
Its not hatred its fear.
Sturgeon's looking after her electorate is frightening to swing voters in marginal English and Welsh constituencies if its to be based on their money.
' Former Lib Dem MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, Roger Williams, says voters were "pushed" into voting for the Conservatives because they were afraid of the influence of the SNP.
"I do believe it was the fear that the people of Brecon and Radnorshire had, and right across Wales as well, that the Scottish National Party would have a big influence of the governance in the UK," Mr Williams aid.
"They were really afraid of that and were pushed into voting Conservative to have a Conservative majority government." '
LOL Working on putting together a culture of safety workshop for executive and lab directors. Two bullet points that made me chuckle in relation to TSE's header:
- confirmation bias - intentionally attend to data that discount your theory
They don't like to admit that on here though, too superior for that.
Scots claiming Welsh reactions are examples of English racism???! Confused face
Poor establishment dupe is confused. It was English voting because they were scared that Scot susing their right to vote may have an influence, something they cannot countenance.
Comments
Smells of English racism to me.
TBH.
8% of the population with 56 Seats in Parliament providing the majority can hold a government to ransom. Salmond himself said that he would be writing the budget. It may have been meant in jest, but it did not appear so in Shire England. So instead of the SNP backing up Ed Millband, they sit impotent on the opposition benches.
Once the Holyrood elections are over, and provided Remain win, there can be some serious discussions of devolution, but for it to be sustainable it has to be a good deal for both parties, not a festering sore of further grievances.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
- confirmation bias
- intentionally attend to data that discount your theory