Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
snip.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
A "technical" change in visa rules isn't a fundamental change in the powers of the EU.
You mean going from (say) 90-day, no work, to indefinite and can work?
Via two or three intermediate stages over a year or two.
I can almost hear the term *regularise* - when the EU is heaving with Kurds or whatever that don't want to go home, but can't work - so they get a new status that's almost the same, but not quite. Like a civil partnership...
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
Turks are not arabs.
As they will very politely tell you if you ask :-)
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
The young don't vote though. You can't blame older people for exercising a right available to anyone over 18.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
Although, don't forget, that it will lead to an increased presence in one of the most attractive future markets, which should - provided you execute well - lead to stronger long-term growth prospects and higher remittances to the UK.
So a short term dislocation as you re-orientate, and then the gap will close.
It'll be great news for our HK office, which is already doing very well. We'll focus more in Asia and probably the US. But those based in the UK will have less to look forward to. Thus, the shareholders will be fine, but the prospects for UK employees will be less certain. That will have knock on effects.
Ultimately increasing the value of the company benefits the UK more than anything else: increased remittances will lead to increased capital formation and investment and/or personal expenditure. Meanwhile, labour resources will be allocated to more productive sectors in the UK economic base.
Of course there will be an element of personal disruption, but I have no doubt that your employee base is highly talented and will be in a position to find attractive work with relative ease.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
And who doesn't think that's a moveable feast... anyone with a slightly sceptical view of the EU would believe that could happen. Eurocrats toppled two elected governments to save the Euro and change border rules willy-willy as expediency demands.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
A "technical" change in visa rules isn't a fundamental change in the powers of the EU.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
Then the "young" should get off their arses and vote! It can't be a surprise to anyone how democracy works, I mean it has been around for a while now. Sitting at home and bitching about the government on twitter doesn't count, they actually need to go and vote! If the old, who will be vastly more likely to have mobility problems can get down to the local school, the young have no excuses, if they are too idle to vote, tough luck.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
Turks are not arabs.
Good point, I was too generic. Their borders are porous and many Arab types live there. I'm starting to sound like a Labour politician now...what I mean is...our life..their life, different strokes/folks
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Yes, just like travel to continental Europe before 1973.
The world has changed ever-so-slightly since 1973. People are a little more mobile than they were.
Your question was about vtsa free travel. I would expect nothing to change. Cars, trains and planes existed in the world before the project.
If leave wants to win they have to drum home that eventually Turkey is going to join- because if we ote to remain we won't get this vote for atleast another generation.
Also Cameron et al are Turkeys biggest supporters.
Turkey is not going to be joining any time in the conceivable future. It can be vetoed by any country, and France has a referendum on approval of Turkey too.
In addition Turkey is much further away than it was a decade or so ago. The requirements in terms of human rights, respect for minorities etc are too high of barrier.
Then there would be transitional controls. The only Turkey that could join the EU would be a very different Turkey in a very different world.
Yes, I think someone was forgetting about Greece, let alone Cyprus!
and...
Remain tell their lies about the economy
Leave tell their lies about immigration
What did you expect ?
"I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell parliament the voters" - J. Hacker.
(There is a much more likely possibility that Turkey bullies its way to 80% of the benefit of membership, without actually becoming a member.)
It's been suggested on here and elsewhere that Turkey could sign up to free movement of people within the EU as a thanks for its 'help' with Merkel's refugee problems - and that such a vote would be on a QMV basis meaning we can't veto allowing 70m Turks the right to live and work in the UK.
Not sure if there's any truth in it or whether it's just scaremongering, but it's certainly true that the EU have got a big problem that's not going away and will likely get much worse in the summer.
Wasn't that deal about visa free travel, rather than a right to work?
snip.
But then see the previous post about the veto/referenda that would be invoked.
A "technical" change in visa rules isn't a fundamental change in the powers of the EU.
You mean going from (say) 90-day, no work, to indefinite and can work?
Via two or three intermediate stages over a year or two.
I can almost hear the term *regularise* - when the EU is heaving with Kurds or whatever that don't want to go home, but can't work - so they get a new status that's almost the same, but not quite. Like a civil partnership...
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Its irrelevant. Even if there is we won't be the first safe country so Turkish origin asylum claims won't be our problem.
Umm. Calais?
Indeed. Corbyn wants all those in Calais to come to UK. As if we owned Calais. Perhaps we should take back Calais, an aggressive foreign policy. Jezza would clearly like that.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
I'm more interested in the long-term prospects for my children & see that opportunity in the US and emerging markets. The UK is fundamentally an outward-looking and internationally minded country. Being part of a closed-in, defensive, European union doesn't fit with our national character.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
If you think Turks are Arabs, don't ever go to that part of the world. Unless you want to come back inside a wooden box.
I've been banned already. Clearly for my own safety!
I haven't seen it linked to, so apologies if this has been discussed previously: Buzzfeed have gathered the views of senior officials in other European governments as to what would happen in the event of a Leave vote.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Do you expect visa-free travel between the EU and the UK post-Brexit?
Its irrelevant. Even if there is we won't be the first safe country so Turkish origin asylum claims won't be our problem. I expect visa free travel, but not visa free residency, as between most modern countries, you can travel to the USA without a visa on a British passport, staying for more than 6 months is slightly more demanding, I would hope we would be in a similar place.
So a lot more illegal immigration, below minimum wage cash-in-hand employment and a lower tax take.
Only if we are stupid. Something along the Switzerland approach would pretty much kill that problem stone dead. Huge fines for employers that employ illegal immigrants, Jail time for directors of companies that repeatedly employ illegal immigrants, and nice fat incentives (residency rights) for illegal immigrants to shop their employers.
Switzerland has a free movement agreement with the EU, doesn't it?
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
Although, don't forget, that it will lead to an increased presence in one of the most attractive future markets, which should - provided you execute well - lead to stronger long-term growth prospects and higher remittances to the UK.
So a short term dislocation as you re-orientate, and then the gap will close.
It'll be great news for our HK office, which is already doing very well. We'll focus more in Asia and probably the US. But those based in the UK will have less to look forward to. Thus, the shareholders will be fine, but the prospects for UK employees will be less certain. That will have knock on effects.
Ultimately increasing the value of the company benefits the UK more than anything else: increased remittances will lead to increased capital formation and investment and/or personal expenditure. Meanwhile, labour resources will be allocated to more productive sectors in the UK economic base.
Of course there will be an element of personal disruption, but I have no doubt that your employee base is highly talented and will be in a position to find attractive work with relative ease.
The business overall will be fine and as a shareholder I will be too. The world is already open to us. All Brexit promises is fewer opportunities in Europe. So for those based in the UK that means fewer opportunities too. We will not be alone.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
I'm more interested in the long-term prospects for my children & see that opportunity in the US and emerging markets. The UK is fundamentally an outward-looking and internationally minded country. Being part of a closed-in, defensive, European union doesn't fit with our national character.
Funny. You can vote remain for the exact same reason.
F1: hmm. Reading on Twitter (from proper accounts) that Hamilton now has two reprimands. A third earns a 10 place grid penalty. And his rate of engine death means he'll have to take more before the season ends, almost certainly, which will also cause a grid penalty (probably 10 places).
Yes, he got a reprimand for reversing while parking his car after the race the other week. Assuming he got another yesterday (which is pretty harsh) then he will get a penalty next time he has to go see the stewards.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
I'm more interested in the long-term prospects for my children & see that opportunity in the US and emerging markets. The UK is fundamentally an outward-looking and internationally minded country. Being part of a closed-in, defensive, European union doesn't fit with our national character.
I agree with your last para. Time to go back to East of Suez? While China does have an abysmal human rights record, I can't see fostering good relations and trade with them as a bad thing.
- 129 members in Scottish Parly - 60 members in Welsh Assembly - 108 members in NI Assembly - 2,743 English councillors - 25 members in London Assembly - 4 mayors > London, Bristol, Liverpool, Salford - 40 PCCs - 2 by-elections - Brightside & Hillsborough and Ogmore, Wales. (Labour defences)
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
I'm more interested in the long-term prospects for my children & see that opportunity in the US and emerging markets. The UK is fundamentally an outward-looking and internationally minded country. Being part of a closed-in, defensive, European union doesn't fit with our national character.
Funny. You can vote remain for the exact same reason.
My view on the future direction that the EU is taking is clearly different to yours.
I see a continent turning on itself, understandably focused on fixing their structural issues, and with a very different set of priorities.
I wish them well, and happy to be friends, but don't to get bogged down in sorting out their mess
Morning all. Just been asked this by You Gov Do you think Ken Livingstone is or is not anti-Semitic? Is very anti-Semitic12% Is fairly anti-Semitic15% Is not really anti-Semitic20% Is not at all anti-Semitic9% Don't know44% Unweighted live results
- 129 members in Scottish Parly - 60 members in Welsh Assembly - 108 members in NI Assembly - 2,743 English councillors - 25 members in London Assembly - 4 mayors > London, Bristol, Liverpool, Salford - 40 PCCs - 2 by-elections - Brightside & Hillsborough and Ogmore, Wales. (Labour defences)
I will see that, and raise you a
President Vice President 12 seats to the Senate of the Philippines; All 297 seats to the House of Representatives of the Philippines; All governors, vice governors, and 772 seats to provincial boards for 81 provinces of the Philippines ; All mayors and vice mayors for 145 cities in the Philippines and for 1,489 municipalities of the Philippines; All members of the city councils in the Philippines and 11,924 seats on municipal councils in the Philippines; and Governor, vice governor and all 24 seats in the regional assembly of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
- 129 members in Scottish Parly - 60 members in Welsh Assembly - 108 members in NI Assembly - 2,743 English councillors - 25 members in London Assembly - 4 mayors > London, Bristol, Liverpool, Salford - 40 PCCs - 2 by-elections - Brightside & Hillsborough and Ogmore, Wales. (Labour defences)
I will see that, and raise you a
President Vice President 12 seats to the Senate of the Philippines; All 297 seats to the House of Representatives of the Philippines; All governors, vice governors, and 772 seats to provincial boards for 81 provinces of the Philippines ; All mayors and vice mayors for 145 cities in the Philippines and for 1,489 municipalities of the Philippines; All members of the city councils in the Philippines and 11,924 seats on municipal councils in the Philippines; and Governor, vice governor and all 24 seats in the regional assembly of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
I'm more interested in the long-term prospects for my children & see that opportunity in the US and emerging markets. The UK is fundamentally an outward-looking and internationally minded country. Being part of a closed-in, defensive, European union doesn't fit with our national character.
I agree with your last para. Time to go back to East of Suez? While China does have an abysmal human rights record, I can't see fostering good relations and trade with them as a bad thing.
We can do that already. Our business has grown hugely in greater China over the last five years. We meet lots of Germans, French, Swedes, Dutch and US company reps in places like Taiwan, Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing; but very few Brits.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
Turks are not arabs.
Good point, I was too generic. Their borders are porous and many Arab types live there. I'm starting to sound like a Labour politician now...what I mean is...our life..their life, different strokes/folks
Kurds are not arabs either, and are amongst the most secular of muslim peoples.
Morning all. Just been asked this by You Gov Do you think Ken Livingstone is or is not anti-Semitic? Is very anti-Semitic12% Is fairly anti-Semitic15% Is not really anti-Semitic20% Is not at all anti-Semitic9% Don't know44% Unweighted live results
They didn't offer "is a idiotic old fool who should have been put out to grass a decade ago" as an option then ?
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
OT If anyone is a fan of the dark arts of political persuasion practiced by Australian Lynton Crosby they'll be delighted to know that the new Israeli ambassador to the Uk is none other than Mark Regev. This former Australian in his work as head of the Israeli propaganda ministry during the Gaza conflict and beyond makes Crosby seem like a first year amateur.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
Turks are not arabs.
Good point, I was too generic. Their borders are porous and many Arab types live there. I'm starting to sound like a Labour politician now...what I mean is...our life..their life, different strokes/folks
Kurds are not arabs either, and are amongst the most secular of muslim peoples.
Neither are Iranians, which is greeted with incredulity in many places.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
Not that I believe polls, but in the latest poll, imho the Tories would be well into the 40's if it wasn't for the loony right BREXITERS causing rows. Voters don't like disunited parties..
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
That's something of a slur on pensioners.
Anyone can vote.. If you don't vote, you have no right to object to the outcome.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
I'm more interested in the long-term prospects for my children & see that opportunity in the US and emerging markets. The UK is fundamentally an outward-looking and internationally minded country. Being part of a closed-in, defensive, European union doesn't fit with our national character.
Funny. You can vote remain for the exact same reason.
My view on the future direction that the EU is taking is clearly different to yours.
I see a continent turning on itself, understandably focused on fixing their structural issues, and with a very different set of priorities.
I wish them well, and happy to be friends, but don't to get bogged down in sorting out their mess
It's that we are paying £350m a week to help sort out their mess that rather rankles....
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
Not that I believe polls, but in the latest poll, imho the Tories would be well into the 40's if it wasn't for the loony right BREXITERS causing rows. Voters don't like disunited parties..
I think you mean the loony Remainers, the PM is in the minority in his party.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
Labour voters didn't have any problem putting Boris incharge of London, I some how doubt they will be that concerned about putting him in charge of the country.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
Labour voters didn't have any problem putting Boris incharge of London, I some how doubt they will be that concerned about putting him in charge of the country.
- 129 members in Scottish Parly - 60 members in Welsh Assembly - 108 members in NI Assembly - 2,743 English councillors - 25 members in London Assembly - 4 mayors > London, Bristol, Liverpool, Salford - 40 PCCs - 2 by-elections - Brightside & Hillsborough and Ogmore, Wales. (Labour defences)
There are also around 55 council by elections on councils which have no other elections this yeat ( apart from PCC )
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
I don't think a remain vote would secure it for Osborne. While he may be the most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the realm, he may not be the most popular in the Tory leadership contest. My heart's on May.. not sure where my head is.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
Turks are not arabs.
Good point, I was too generic. Their borders are porous and many Arab types live there. I'm starting to sound like a Labour politician now...what I mean is...our life..their life, different strokes/folks
Kurds are not arabs either, and are amongst the most secular of muslim peoples.
Neither are Iranians, which is greeted with incredulity in many places.
Pisses off the Iranians especially to be called Arabs. IIRC it once almost wrecked some international discussions when someone referred to "Iran and the other Arab states”.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
That's something of a slur on pensioners.
Anyone can vote.. If you don't vote, you have no right to object to the outcome.
Many pensioners today (particularly those aged 65-70) would have been the idealistic, hippyish, "free-love" teenagers and social radicals of the Summer of Love. In the late 60s a very clear majority of the under 30s were very left-wing.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
In the other hand, a Labour voter might calculate that an unpopular Tory leader increases their chance of being ejected from office in GE2020, by which time the UK Government might have the full breadth of powers it needs to implement a fully Labour manifesto.
Delighted that PBers are coming round to my long held view about Labour voters giving Cameron and Osborne a kicking.
With the polls tight this is going to be all about motivation and turnout, Cameron is going to be pleading with Labour supporters to vote Remain. He can promise the world, they're not going to prop him up.
I was in Deal yesterday, Vote Leave had plenty of leafleteers being warmly greeted.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
I don't think a remain vote would secure it for Osborne. While he may be the most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the realm, he may not be the most popular in the Tory leadership contest. My heart's on May.. not sure where my head is.
Osborne is done for in the leadership stakes; Boris is a buffoon. May looks like the only real choice, but she's a step down from Cameron. The Tory talent pool is as shallow as Labour's, it seems.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
But in NW8 .... Oh the shame !! ....
Pity the man, it's all he could afford.
I know .... but NW8 !!
"Why Charles, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world, but for NW8 !!"
Delighted that PBers are coming round to my long held view that about Labour voters giving Cameron and Osborne a kicking.
With the polls tight this is going to be all about motivation and turnout, Cameron is going to be pleading with Labour supporters to vote Remain. He can promise the world, they're not going to prop him up.
I was in Deal yesterday, Vote Leave had plenty of leafleteers being warmly greeted.
Doesn't it make you a bit disappointed that people would vote on an issue so important to the future of our country based on their opinion of Cameron and Osborne?
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
In the other hand, a Labour voter might calculate that an unpopular Tory leader increases their chance of being ejected from office in GE2020, by which time the UK Government might have the full breadth of powers it needs to implement a fully Labour manifesto.
I doubt it. The vast majority of Labour voters know the party is screwed as well as everyone else. Members maybe not, but they are a tiny minority.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
I know. We should be propping up IDS GOVE JOHNSON FARAGE PATEL and GRAYLING.
Delighted that PBers are coming round to my long held view that about Labour voters giving Cameron and Osborne a kicking.
With the polls tight this is going to be all about motivation and turnout, Cameron is going to be pleading with Labour supporters to vote Remain. He can promise the world, they're not going to prop him up.
I was in Deal yesterday, Vote Leave had plenty of leafleteers being warmly greeted.
Doesn't it make you a bit disappointed that people would vote on an issue so important to the future of our country based on their opinion of Cameron and Osborne?
This is precisely why referendums are generally a bad idea.
Am I right in thinking that most of the English LG elections this time were last up in 2012? In those results Labour were on 38% and the Tories on 31. If you believe the Opinium poll that is completely reversed with the Tories up 7, Labour down 8, a swing of 7.5%.
The thing is that the forecasts I have seen for net gains and losses are significantly smaller than 2012. Those forecasts were made when the polling was closer but still involved a larger swing to the Tories (from 2012) than Labour achieved then.
Am I missing something? If the Opinium figures are even close to right, and I think they were in the field before Ken's brain fart, Labour are surely deep in dockside hooker territory facing huge losses against a government well past its honeymoon and deeply divided. Even if the swing was only half of what Opinium is indicating surely Labour are looking at losing 1,000+ councillors?
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
In the other hand, a Labour voter might calculate that an unpopular Tory leader increases their chance of being ejected from office in GE2020, by which time the UK Government might have the full breadth of powers it needs to implement a fully Labour manifesto.
I doubt it. The vast majority of Labour voters know the party is screwed as well as everyone else. Members maybe not, but they are a tiny minority.
Which makes it even more likely that, come the referendum, they either stay at home or vote to give the PM a kicking.
Differential turnout will be in Leave's favour, Labour look like they want to spend the next month talking to themselves about Jews v Muslims rather than GOTV for Remain.
On topic, I think TSE is broadly correct. Majoring on the economic risks of changing the status quo is always going to be the most profitable line of attack on a political referendum. The EU is an economic union, and we are part of it, so that is necessarily going to involve some change.
Personally, I think the long-term economic arguments are neutral to positive for Leave (global trade and the economic growth of other continents can only increase relative to Europe, with both technology and continual lowering of trade barriers making this easier each year) so I think Leave be ok on this message if they pick apart the nonsense of the 2030+ forecasts from the Treasury and FT.
What I think they need to reassure with is a 1-4 year plan to 2020 for the short-term exit costs. If they can do that they could win this.
This time 19 years ago Labour was hours away from winning over 400 seats in a general election.
One of my earliest political memories is watching the BBC results show, I think John Major got covered in a literal landslide of votes.
I was in San Antonio drinking margaritas. It was one hell of a night. But what a wasted opportunity the subsequent years represent.
It really was a bright new morning in Canvey Island, too. And, Mr S.O. how right your second sentence is; a lot done, but so much more could have been. And then came Iraq!
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs.
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
That's something of a slur on pensioners.
Anyone can vote.. If you don't vote, you have no right to object to the outcome.
Many pensioners today (particularly those aged 65-70) would have been the idealistic, hippyish, "free-love" teenagers and social radicals of the Summer of Love. In the late 60s a very clear majority of the under 30s were very left-wing.
Today, a clear majority of them are for Brexit.
Where's the contrast? Back in the day, and to an extent now (ask Jeremy Corbyn!) many on the left were anti-EU.
Delighted that PBers are coming round to my long held view that about Labour voters giving Cameron and Osborne a kicking.
With the polls tight this is going to be all about motivation and turnout, Cameron is going to be pleading with Labour supporters to vote Remain. He can promise the world, they're not going to prop him up.
I was in Deal yesterday, Vote Leave had plenty of leafleteers being warmly greeted.
Doesn't it make you a bit disappointed that people would vote on an issue so important to the future of our country based on their opinion of Cameron and Osborne?
Disappointed? More like delighted.
I've been anti EU for years, its why I got involved in politics. I've endured years of Cameron's duplicity.
My chickens are far from counted, Remain is still favourite but what I've been predicting on here for ages looks more and more likely.
Us leaving the EU and Cameron standing down is a dream scenario for me, there's no point in lying. 6 months ago if you'd predicted that people would have laughed.
Delighted that PBers are coming round to my long held view that about Labour voters giving Cameron and Osborne a kicking.
With the polls tight this is going to be all about motivation and turnout, Cameron is going to be pleading with Labour supporters to vote Remain. He can promise the world, they're not going to prop him up.
I was in Deal yesterday, Vote Leave had plenty of leafleteers being warmly greeted.
Doesn't it make you a bit disappointed that people would vote on an issue so important to the future of our country based on their opinion of Cameron and Osborne?
This is precisely why referendums are generally a bad idea.
Yeah, I'm generally opposed to them, but I can see why you'd want them for issues of such import to the country. Could you imagine doing away with the monarchy without a vote in it? (yes, one party could stand on a platform to do away with it, but can't imagine it would be the sole reason people would vote for them).
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
I'm more interested in the long-term prospects for my children & see that opportunity in the US and emerging markets. The UK is fundamentally an outward-looking and internationally minded country. Being part of a closed-in, defensive, European union doesn't fit with our national character.
Funny. You can vote remain for the exact same reason.
My view on the future direction that the EU is taking is clearly different to yours.
I see a continent turning on itself, understandably focused on fixing their structural issues, and with a very different set of priorities.
I wish them well, and happy to be friends, but don't to get bogged down in sorting out their mess
It's that we are paying £350m a week to help sort out their mess that rather rankles....
..... Or, to put it another way, "It's the economies, stupid" [from our leaving Europe].
Q 1. Why isn't Brexit shouting about these numbers from the rooftops?
Q 2. How will the rest of the EU make up this enormous shortfall after we've gone?
I haven't seen it linked to, so apologies if this has been discussed previously: Buzzfeed have gathered the views of senior officials in other European governments as to what would happen in the event of a Leave vote.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
Although, don't forget, that it will lead to an increased presence in one of the most attractive future markets, which should - provided you execute well - lead to stronger long-term growth prospects and higher remittances to the UK.
So a short term dislocation as you re-orientate, and then the gap will close.
It'll be great news for our HK office, which is already doing very well. We'll focus more in Asia and probably the US. But those based in the UK will have less to look forward to. Thus, the shareholders will be fine, but the prospects for UK employees will be less certain. That will have knock on effects.
Ultimately increasing the value of the company benefits the UK more than anything else: increased remittances will lead to increased capital formation and investment and/or personal expenditure. Meanwhile, labour resources will be allocated to more productive sectors in the UK economic base.
Of course there will be an element of personal disruption, but I have no doubt that your employee base is highly talented and will be in a position to find attractive work with relative ease.
LOL, I have read some bollox in my time but that management speak is just. Is BHS a good example of your theory, boss makes fortune , workers in UK all dumped hey tehy will get highly paid jobs no problem. Only an obscenely rich Tory could come out with such fantasy.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
In the other hand, a Labour voter might calculate that an unpopular Tory leader increases their chance of being ejected from office in GE2020, by which time the UK Government might have the full breadth of powers it needs to implement a fully Labour manifesto.
I doubt it. The vast majority of Labour voters know the party is screwed as well as everyone else. Members maybe not, but they are a tiny minority.
Which makes it even more likely that, come the referendum, they either stay at home or vote to give the PM a kicking.
Differential turnout will be in Leave's favour, Labour look like they want to spend the next month talking to themselves about Jews v Muslims rather than GOTV for Remain.
As I pointed out below in this poll 68% of Labour voters were certain to vote vs 73% of kippers.
London and Scotland were the areas with the highest certainty to vote
ABC1 voters are far more likely to vote.
I am not convinced that there will be much effect on differential turnout.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Quite - what an interesting thread that would be.
Those GE2015 Labour voters rejected Cameron and Osborne and the economic argument did not sway them. It did sway others, but that is not the electoral group that is in play. If voters can choose Labour at GE2015 after all the economic arguments, why would the economic argument sway those voters in 2016? It is of course difficult for those who are Cameron Conservatives, or Labour metrosexuals or Lib Dems to understand. This is about Labour voters outside London. Also, voters that are not young.
In this poll Lab voters were 68% absolutely certain to vote, compared to 73% of kippers. The highest certainty to vote was in the London and Scotland. 60% of Remainers and 62% of Leavers were absolutely certain to vote.
The tables do not back up your assertions.
Young voters overstate their intention to vote. It is part of their attitude to such matters. Does anyone on here seriously believe that UKIP voters will only have a turnout 5% higher than Labour ......... Kippers are the most determined of any group to vote. Just ask them on the doorstep.
Kippers are even more working class than Labour and working-class voters vote less often
"If Leave wants to win they need to show that Brexit is the better option for the economy and the financial wellbeing of voters."
This analysis is wrong.
"We’ve been here before. We see the headline voting intention figures showing it neck and neck, yet the supplementaries on the economy show one side extending their clear lead further. (...) (T)his referendum campaign, with the supplementaries showing more and more voters saying Brexit would be bad for the economy, jobs, and their personal financial situation, with Remain being the best option, is all very reminiscent of the polling we saw at the 2015 general election, the Tories and Labour tied but the Tories significantly ahead on the economy."
The analogy doesn't hold. Try applying it to the EU election of 2014, won by UKIP. What did people think of UKIP's politics where "jobs" were concerned"? Sorry. Wrong question.
This isn't a general election. Imagine a general election. Then imagine moving towards what an EU election is like. Now imagine moving further on in the same direction. Eventually you will get to what this referendum is like.
It's easy for pollsters to separate "the economy", or "jobs", from immigration, and to charge their customers big money for gathering people's answers, but that doesn't mean that people think like that.
Here is what Remain need to do. First, they have to make people downgrade the importance of the immigration issue. That's very different from getting people to tell pollsters they consider immigration to be less important than "jobs" or "health". Basically no polls are going to give you information as to whether Reman are successful in doing this. Don't overestimate polls.
Second, they have to make a portion of Leave-preferring voters stay at home, having decided that the question of EU membership isn't as important as they thought. I wouldn't set too much stock by what pollsters report on "likelihood of voting" either.
Third, they need to scare Remain-preferring people who aren't especially likely to vote. They need to scare them into getting off their butts. They need to excite "passion".
On the third point, consider young people, aged say 18 or 19, those who may never have been to Paris or Vienna or Barcelona or Rome, but who think they may visit one or more of those places within the next year or two, assuming their bank will lend them the money. If Britain was in the euro, Remain could do well in this market. They could say hey, look at the position now. You can hop on Eurostar; you don't need to change money as your parents did back in the distant past. Ha ha - changing money! What a thought! And that's what your silly old racist parents, who don't understand stuff, that's what they want to take us all back to! Show them what's what! Vote Remain! Vote for not going back to the past!
And obviously Remain can't say that.
Not joining the euro was never ever win-win. Remain are in trouble.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
I know. We should be propping up IDS GOVE JOHNSON FARAGE PATEL and GRAYLING.
Even that is a swing of 4.5% from 2012. According to the Wiki page there should be a lot more LG elections than you listed unless some have got out of sync.
Overall your list makes it clear that Thursday will be the most important election day until the next GE. And Labour really aren't in a good place. There has to be a real chance that by the referendum Labour will be embroiled in another leadership election. Really not sure how that will play.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
I don't think a remain vote would secure it for Osborne. While he may be the most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the realm, he may not be the most popular in the Tory leadership contest. My heart's on May.. not sure where my head is.
Osborne is done for in the leadership stakes; Boris is a buffoon. May looks like the only real choice, but she's a step down from Cameron. The Tory talent pool is as shallow as Labour's, it seems.
Yesterday there was a story doing the rounds about Cameron sounding out the EU opponents in the Tory party about whether shifting/knifing Osborne would save the PM's job.
Presumably he wouldn't be doing that if he thought the referendum was in the bag.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue [snip]
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
Although, don't forget, that it will lead to an increased presence in one of the most attractive future markets, which should - provided you execute well - lead to stronger long-term growth prospects and higher remittances to the UK.
So a short term dislocation as you re-orientate, and then the gap will close.
It'll be great news for our HK office, which is already doing very well. We'll focus more in Asia and probably the US. But those based in the UK will have less to look forward to. Thus, the shareholders will be fine, but the prospects for UK employees will be less certain. That will have knock on effects.
Ultimately increasing the value of the company benefits the UK more than anything else: increased remittances will lead to increased capital formation and investment and/or personal expenditure. Meanwhile, labour resources will be allocated to more productive sectors in the UK economic base.
Of course there will be an element of personal disruption, but I have no doubt that your employee base is highly talented and will be in a position to find attractive work with relative ease.
LOL, I have read some bollox in my time but that management speak is just. Is BHS a good example of your theory, boss makes fortune , workers in UK all dumped hey tehy will get highly paid jobs no problem. Only an obscenely rich Tory could come out with such fantasy.
It's correct if you allow the assumption that there are "more productive sectors in the UK" where skilled employees can find jobs. If only we hadn't had 37 years of governments ideologically opposed to taking any responsibility for building that kind of economy it would all be peachy.
Clearly it isn't just the economy. It's the economy plus public services plus immigration plus British influence plus sovereignty. Anyone who would decide Leave or Remain on the basis of £25 a year is simply rationalising a choice they've made long ago.
There is a further issue. Lots of people say Brexit will make no difference in financial terms to them personally, or to the country. They have no incentive to favour Remain. At present, only a minority of voters think that Brexit would make them, or the country, worse off.
There are direct and indirect costs. Clearly a direct £25 a year is not going to move many voters. However, loss of full access to the single market may mean a lot more than that in terms of growth, tax take, job creation and job security. For our company, it risks pushing up the cost of doing business in Europe. That will have a knock-on effect for our overall plans. We either slow down expansion or we focus on doing it out of our HK office. Either way we are less likely to build our UK operation. That will have economic consequences for all of us based in the UK. And we will not be the only ones.
Although, don't forget, that it will lead to an increased presence in one of the most attractive future markets, which should - provided you execute well - lead to stronger long-term growth prospects and higher remittances to the UK.
So a short term dislocation as you re-orientate, and then the gap will close.
It'll be great news for our HK office, which is already doing very well. We'll focus more in Asia and probably the US. But those based in the UK will have less to look forward to. Thus, the shareholders will be fine, but the prospects for UK employees will be less certain. That will have knock on effects.
Ultimately increasing the value of the company benefits the UK more than anything else: increased remittances will lead to increased capital formation and investment and/or personal expenditure. Meanwhile, labour resources will be allocated to more productive sectors in the UK economic base.
Of course there will be an element of personal disruption, but I have no doubt that your employee base is highly talented and will be in a position to find attractive work with relative ease.
LOL, I have read some bollox in my time but that management speak is just. Is BHS a good example of your theory, boss makes fortune , workers in UK all dumped hey tehy will get highly paid jobs no problem. Only an obscenely rich Tory could come out with such fantasy.
What happened in Wales and the North was merely an element of personal disruption.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
Then the "young" should get off their arses and vote! It can't be a surprise to anyone how democracy works, I mean it has been around for a while now. Sitting at home and bitching about the government on twitter doesn't count, they actually need to go and vote! If the old, who will be vastly more likely to have mobility problems can get down to the local school, the young have no excuses, if they are too idle to vote, tough luck.
Yesterday there was a story doing the rounds about Cameron sounding out the EU opponents in the Tory party about whether shifting/knifing Osborne would save the PM's job.
Presumably he wouldn't be doing that if he thought the referendum was in the bag.
Good. If there is a Brexit, Cameron promotes the sensible Leavers, ditches Osborne, and stays as PM we might get both a sensible exit strategy and retain a noted election winner for the Party.
UK Plc will do well and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about within a few years.
I agree with your last para. Time to go back to East of Suez? While China does have an abysmal human rights record, I can't see fostering good relations and trade with them as a bad thing.
We can do that already. Our business has grown hugely in greater China over the last five years. We meet lots of Germans, French, Swedes, Dutch and US company reps in places like Taiwan, Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing; but very few Brits.
To be fair, I think that's in part the characteristics of the UK economy.
Germany and Sweden, for instance, are much more focused on engineering - which is a strong need of China at the moment - while Britain is more service based. Additionally, many of our most successful companies are now viewed as Asian - e.g. Hutch, Jardine Matheson, Swire Pacific - rather than British per se.
Separately, we have a much stronger focus on the US, partly because of cultural affinity and language, than many of our European compatriots.
It's simplistic to say X is doing more in Y market than us and therefore we are doing badly overall. It's just a question of priorities and opportunity.
If there is a Brexit, Cameron promotes the sensible Leavers, ditches Osborne, and stays as PM we might get both a sensible exit strategy and retain a noted election winner for the Party.
If there is a Brexit, Cameron isn't going to be promoting anybody.
Am I right in thinking that most of the English LG elections this time were last up in 2012? In those results Labour were on 38% and the Tories on 31. If you believe the Opinium poll that is completely reversed with the Tories up 7, Labour down 8, a swing of 7.5%.
The thing is that the forecasts I have seen for net gains and losses are significantly smaller than 2012. Those forecasts were made when the polling was closer but still involved a larger swing to the Tories (from 2012) than Labour achieved then.
Am I missing something? If the Opinium figures are even close to right, and I think they were in the field before Ken's brain fart, Labour are surely deep in dockside hooker territory facing huge losses against a government well past its honeymoon and deeply divided. Even if the swing was only half of what Opinium is indicating surely Labour are looking at losing 1,000+ councillors?
Yes, that's struck me too as a possibility though I've not done the maths. I suspect the spin doctors on both sides have a reason not to play it up - Labour doesn't want to issue total panic warnings, Tories want to be able to say they did far better than expected.
Certainly the Sunday Times is in full cry "Save Labour by not voting for them" (their pro-Labour concern is touching ) - they argue on one page that electing Khan won't help Corbyn, and in the editorial that it will.
I'm mostly offline at the moment due to private preoccupations (not least a fun Thursday with two extractions and five dental implants in a half-day session), so apologies for absence from the field of battle. My personal view is that Livingstone's political retirement to be a Clarkson-style shock jock/columnist is overdue, and that there are miscellaneous less prominent characters who need to be chucked out, but the idea that Corbyn can instantly expel people ignores the legal process and his actual comments are perfectly reasonable. A portion of the storm is actually about trying to get rid of Corbyn.
I'm thinking of Turkey getting salami slices of access - all forced through as necessarily. Then it becoming impossible to undo. They've already got a bunch without being a member either.
Quite.
With another summer of migrant movement Turkey will have 4m penned up inside it's borders possibly 5m, as time goes on its negotiating hand gets stronger and stronger.
There is a feeling in German that Turkey is about to export its Kurdish 'problem' to Germany as soon as they get visa free travel, because, the thing about a Schengen Visa, often trumpeted about around here, is it is far from automatic, you need a job back home (employers reference) and three years of bank statements for one thing to even make the application. Visa free travel means ANYONE with Turkish citizenship can come to the EU, lots of which (5m kurds) are not welcome in Turkey, and German legal opinion is that they would have a strong claim for asylum on the basis of persecution if they reach the EU.
The choice could come down to 4m economic migrants, or 4m kurdish asylum seekers.
Turkey is a very, very big black hole. Essentially, Turkey = all arabs, rich and poor, terrorist or not, homophobic or...actually homophobic, sexist etc. And shit coffee. Europe will be engulfed by Arabs. A completely stupid thing top do, to let in the people that most hate our way of life.
Turks are not arabs.
Good point, I was too generic. Their borders are porous and many Arab types live there. I'm starting to sound like a Labour politician now...what I mean is...our life..their life, different strokes/folks
Kurds are not arabs either, and are amongst the most secular of muslim peoples.
Although lots of Arabs are happy to overlook the fact that An-Nasir Salah ad-Din Yusuf ibn Ayyub was Kurdish not Arab...
That may or may not be so, but I'm engaging more with the argument that economic issues will determine the outcome of this Referendum. I'm not convinced that they will (they'll be an important factor, of course). But, I think there's a grid of issues that will influence how people vote.
If Leave could convince people that Brexit would make them better off, then they'd win this Referendum handily, given the leads they enjoy on the NHS, immigration, and sovereignty. But, I don't think they have to do that. They only need to convince people it would make little difference to them financially.
The trouble is its very difficult to conclusively prove there's no financial risk to leaving. As a homeowner with a young family there's just no way it's worth taking the chance everything will turn out OK. Im no lover of what the EU stands for but I'm assuming Cameron has a reason for backing stay.
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
I'm a homeowner (well, I occupy a home with a big mortgage, so I guess the bank really owns it) and have a young family.
I wake up to ... another article that is pro REMAIN and anti LEAVE...... Does the economy matter most to the biggest group of voters that back REMAIN? That is the key question about LABOUR voters.
Labour voters split 59 to 13 (UK worse off post Brexit to better off) p6 of the tables, the split is 37 to 6 when asked if they would personally be worse off.
Labour voters also split 70/30 in the forced choice between free trade and free movement question, so it does look like economic factors are more important than immigration to them.
Turnout is by far the biggest issue with Labour voters. Those that do vote will mainly go for Remain, but a lot will just stay at home. And practically speaking, every non-voter is a Leave voter.
And every Labour Remain voter is a vote to prop up that that nice Tory Mr Cameron and that very nice Tory Mr Osborne......
As opposed to putting even more right wing Tories in charge. Dave v Boris; Osborne v Gove; May v Grayling etc. Either way it's a big lose.
In the other hand, a Labour voter might calculate that an unpopular Tory leader increases their chance of being ejected from office in GE2020, by which time the UK Government might have the full breadth of powers it needs to implement a fully Labour manifesto.
Although if they calculated that they are probably posting on here already...
Comments
It concerns me that pensioners who are more disposed to xenophobia (casual racism) are going to vote in droves and it will be immigration that sees leave home. Part of the problem of successive governments pandering to oaps and sheltering them from the worst effects of recession/cutbacks etc.
It seems sad that a group who will be largely unaffected by Brexit or otherwise will have such an influence. Particularly as the young who will feel any repercussions are predominantly in favour of staying.
Of course there will be an element of personal disruption, but I have no doubt that your employee base is highly talented and will be in a position to find attractive work with relative ease.
I'm more interested in the long-term prospects for my children & see that opportunity in the US and emerging markets. The UK is fundamentally an outward-looking and internationally minded country. Being part of a closed-in, defensive, European union doesn't fit with our national character.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/everyone-would-want-a-deal?utm_term=.ieKGAAAzx#.qqoz999yo
Lots for everyone to mull over.
Switzerland also has the above rules for illegal immigrants, hence it basically doesn't have any.
- 129 members in Scottish Parly
- 60 members in Welsh Assembly
- 108 members in NI Assembly
- 2,743 English councillors
- 25 members in London Assembly
- 4 mayors > London, Bristol, Liverpool, Salford
- 40 PCCs
- 2 by-elections - Brightside & Hillsborough and Ogmore, Wales. (Labour defences)
I see a continent turning on itself, understandably focused on fixing their structural issues, and with a very different set of priorities.
I wish them well, and happy to be friends, but don't to get bogged down in sorting out their mess
Just been asked this by You Gov
Do you think Ken Livingstone is or is not anti-Semitic?
Is very anti-Semitic12%
Is fairly anti-Semitic15%
Is not really anti-Semitic20%
Is not at all anti-Semitic9%
Don't know44%
Unweighted live results
He's on Marr this morning.
Heh
Perhaps 45 minutes away ....
Anyone can vote.. If you don't vote, you have no right to object to the outcome.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36181138
Today, a clear majority of them are for Brexit.
With the polls tight this is going to be all about motivation and turnout, Cameron is going to be pleading with Labour supporters to vote Remain. He can promise the world, they're not going to prop him up.
I was in Deal yesterday, Vote Leave had plenty of leafleteers being warmly greeted.
"Why Charles, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world, but for NW8 !!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLIsqYKDqY8
From 3.30.
(Did you get to see Eye in the Sky yet)
The swing in 2012 was 2.5% to Labour resulting in a net gain of over 800 councillors for Labour with the Tories losing over 400 and the Lib Dems over 300. Details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012
The thing is that the forecasts I have seen for net gains and losses are significantly smaller than 2012. Those forecasts were made when the polling was closer but still involved a larger swing to the Tories (from 2012) than Labour achieved then.
Am I missing something? If the Opinium figures are even close to right, and I think they were in the field before Ken's brain fart, Labour are surely deep in dockside hooker territory facing huge losses against a government well past its honeymoon and deeply divided. Even if the swing was only half of what Opinium is indicating surely Labour are looking at losing 1,000+ councillors?
Differential turnout will be in Leave's favour, Labour look like they want to spend the next month talking to themselves about Jews v Muslims rather than GOTV for Remain.
Personally, I think the long-term economic arguments are neutral to positive for Leave (global trade and the economic growth of other continents can only increase relative to Europe, with both technology and continual lowering of trade barriers making this easier each year) so I think Leave be ok on this message if they pick apart the nonsense of the 2030+ forecasts from the Treasury and FT.
What I think they need to reassure with is a 1-4 year plan to 2020 for the short-term exit costs. If they can do that they could win this.
And then came Iraq!
I've been anti EU for years, its why I got involved in politics. I've endured years of Cameron's duplicity.
My chickens are far from counted, Remain is still favourite but what I've been predicting on here for ages looks more and more likely.
Us leaving the EU and Cameron standing down is a dream scenario for me, there's no point in lying. 6 months ago if you'd predicted that people would have laughed.
Q 1. Why isn't Brexit shouting about these numbers from the rooftops?
Q 2. How will the rest of the EU make up this enormous shortfall after we've gone?
Only an obscenely rich Tory could come out with such fantasy.
Ben
ICM EU poll:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 46%
ICM poll: CON: 34%, LAB: 32%, LD: 7%, GRN: 3%, UKIP: 18%
London and Scotland were the areas with the highest certainty to vote
ABC1 voters are far more likely to vote.
I am not convinced that there will be much effect on differential turnout.
This analysis is wrong.
"We’ve been here before. We see the headline voting intention figures showing it neck and neck, yet the supplementaries on the economy show one side extending their clear lead further. (...) (T)his referendum campaign, with the supplementaries showing more and more voters saying Brexit would be bad for the economy, jobs, and their personal financial situation, with Remain being the best option, is all very reminiscent of the polling we saw at the 2015 general election, the Tories and Labour tied but the Tories significantly ahead on the economy."
The analogy doesn't hold. Try applying it to the EU election of 2014, won by UKIP. What did people think of UKIP's politics where "jobs" were concerned"? Sorry. Wrong question.
This isn't a general election. Imagine a general election. Then imagine moving towards what an EU election is like. Now imagine moving further on in the same direction. Eventually you will get to what this referendum is like.
It's easy for pollsters to separate "the economy", or "jobs", from immigration, and to charge their customers big money for gathering people's answers, but that doesn't mean that people think like that.
Here is what Remain need to do. First, they have to make people downgrade the importance of the immigration issue. That's very different from getting people to tell pollsters they consider immigration to be less important than "jobs" or "health". Basically no polls are going to give you information as to whether Reman are successful in doing this. Don't overestimate polls.
Second, they have to make a portion of Leave-preferring voters stay at home, having decided that the question of EU membership isn't as important as they thought. I wouldn't set too much stock by what pollsters report on "likelihood of voting" either.
Third, they need to scare Remain-preferring people who aren't especially likely to vote. They need to scare them into getting off their butts. They need to excite "passion".
On the third point, consider young people, aged say 18 or 19, those who may never have been to Paris or Vienna or Barcelona or Rome, but who think they may visit one or more of those places within the next year or two, assuming their bank will lend them the money. If Britain was in the euro, Remain could do well in this market. They could say hey, look at the position now. You can hop on Eurostar; you don't need to change money as your parents did back in the distant past. Ha ha - changing money! What a thought! And that's what your silly old racist parents, who don't understand stuff, that's what they want to take us all back to! Show them what's what! Vote Remain! Vote for not going back to the past!
And obviously Remain can't say that.
Not joining the euro was never ever win-win. Remain are in trouble.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/05/01/ed-miliband-knew-livingstone-was-an-anti-semitic-conspiracy-nutter-four-years-ago-but-still-backed-him-for-london-mayor/#more-20753
Overall your list makes it clear that Thursday will be the most important election day until the next GE. And Labour really aren't in a good place. There has to be a real chance that by the referendum Labour will be embroiled in another leadership election. Really not sure how that will play.
Presumably he wouldn't be doing that if he thought the referendum was in the bag.
UK Plc will do well and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about within a few years.
Germany and Sweden, for instance, are much more focused on engineering - which is a strong need of China at the moment - while Britain is more service based. Additionally, many of our most successful companies are now viewed as Asian - e.g. Hutch, Jardine Matheson, Swire Pacific - rather than British per se.
Separately, we have a much stronger focus on the US, partly because of cultural affinity and language, than many of our European compatriots.
It's simplistic to say X is doing more in Y market than us and therefore we are doing badly overall. It's just a question of priorities and opportunity.
Certainly the Sunday Times is in full cry "Save Labour by not voting for them" (their pro-Labour concern is touching
I'm mostly offline at the moment due to private preoccupations (not least a fun Thursday with two extractions and five dental implants in a half-day session), so apologies for absence from the field of battle. My personal view is that Livingstone's political retirement to be a Clarkson-style shock jock/columnist is overdue, and that there are miscellaneous less prominent characters who need to be chucked out, but the idea that Corbyn can instantly expel people ignores the legal process and his actual comments are perfectly reasonable. A portion of the storm is actually about trying to get rid of Corbyn.
Backing Livingstone for the mayoralty was a grudging neccesity for Labour.