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This is the end of all the ectoplasms0
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Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.0
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Blond old Etonians have served the Tories well in London befora snd Zac had built up good reputation as a constituency MP. His result in 2015 was really excellent.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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You certainly have a point there Mike, but as regards Richmond ..... if one were newly arrived from Mars, it would be difficult to conceive of a more Tory looking constituency than this ultra well-heeled part of SW London, other than perhaps its namesake in North Yorkshire!MikeSmithson said:
Blond old Etonians have served the Tories well in London befora snd Zac had built up good reputation as a constituency MP. His result in 2015 was really excellent.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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Poll sponsored by the London "Fairness" Commission.0
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London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
I'm also expecting some remarkable levels of vote harvesting for the Great Khan in parts of inner London, based on the expectation of the resulting, er, patronage that helping secure his tenure will bring certain "community leaders".0 -
Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown
3 hours0 -
Well given Livingstone has finally been thrown out (albeit temporarily until the dust settles) I guess that leaves Lady Colonel Thornberry
to throw out Trident on her ownform Labours defence review0 -
Ken will be back off the Naughty Step well before that document is laid in front of the public.Moses_ said:Well given Livingstone has finally been thrown out (albeit temporarily until the dust settles) I guess that leaves Lady Colonel Thornberry
to throw out Trident on her ownform Labours defence review
His mate Jeremy will see to it. No crime is so great as to get in the way of delivering unilateral nuclear disarmament...0 -
If one is allowed to stray for a moment away from the outcome of the London Mayoral election, which is very much a foregone conclusion anyway, I wonder whether it is worth considering the "Only a heartbeat away" aspect as regards the upcoming POTUS election in November.
Without wishing to become too morbid about such matters, I think it's worthwhile considering the fact that unusually the two leading candidates are both nearing their seventies, with Hillary celebrating her 69th birthday in October and The Donald reaching the big Seven-0 in a few weeks time.
Leaving aside their respective closest challengers, Bernie Sanders, himself 75 years of age come September, priced at 75 to become the next POTUS and Ted Cruz on offer at 42, neither of whom look particularly likely to succeed were circumstances to offer them such an opportunity. Look beyond this pair and the odds become really wild with the next nearest Democrat being Joe Biden on offer with Betfair at 250, with John Kasich the nearest Republican contender priced at 220.
Continue down the list of possible contenders and one quickly reaches almost four figure odds.
Of course this is all very much a very remote possibility, but purely in terms of buying very cheap insurance it might be worth considering investing a few bob in a handful of outsiders available at such crazy odds.
Thus far, based on some impressive polling match-ups against Hillary, I've limited myself to a couple of quid on Governor Kasich.
DYOR.0 -
This sums up Labours entire problem really.....MarqueeMark said:
Ken will be back off the Naughty Step well before that document is laid in front of the public.Moses_ said:Well given Livingstone has finally been thrown out (albeit temporarily until the dust settles) I guess that leaves Lady Colonel Thornberry
to throw out Trident on her ownform Labours defence review
His mate Jeremy will see to it. No crime is so great as to get in the way of delivering unilateral nuclear disarmament...
http://tinyurl.com/zebpbht0 -
FPT:
This has got so much WRONG in it I don't know where to start! I was sitting in my house here in the Philippines when the Bohol Earthquake on October 15th 2013 shook us for over a minute and did major damage to a number of buildings near me (I am 50 miles from the epicentre) and leveled quite a lot of buildings nearer to the centre, It measures 7.2 on the scale, inexplicably that one is missing from your list, maybe it doesn't fit the cycle, or perhaps people got confused by Category 5 super typhoon that arrived three weeks later.hunchman said:You may check these dates and seismic histories for yourself if you wish.
MARCH 11, 2011 - JAPAN 9.0
SEPTEMBER 15, 2011 - FIJI 7.3
MARCH 21, 2012 - OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4
SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 - BAJA CALIFORNIA 6.3
APRIL 1, 2013 - JAPAN 6.0
OCTOBER 6, 2013 - WEST CHILE RISE 6.2
APRIL 12, 2014 - SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.6
OCTOBER 17, 2014 - EL SALVADOR 7.3 (actual: OCT 14)
APRIL 23, 2015 - NEPAL 7.8 (actual: APR 25)
Future Cycle Dates:
OCTOBER 28, 2015
MAY 3, 2016
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
MAY 14, 2017
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/2013_Earthquake_Bulletins/October/2013_1015_0012_B3F.html
Look at it with a worldwide perspective, just yesterday there was 28 earthquakes of significant magnitude, including one north of Vanuatu that was a 7.0, that seems to be missing from your list as well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/0 -
Not sure Khan will win by quite as much as this, but he will win.0
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Yes, Zac is almost ideally suited as a candidate for Richmond: posh, well-heeled, polite but also very green and right-on.peter_from_putney said:
You certainly have a point there Mike, but as regards Richmond ..... if one were newly arrived from Mars, it would be difficult to conceive of a more Tory looking constituency than this ultra well-heeled part of SW London, other than perhaps its namesake in North Yorkshire!MikeSmithson said:
Blond old Etonians have served the Tories well in London befora snd Zac had built up good reputation as a constituency MP. His result in 2015 was really excellent.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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Yet it was held by the LibDems from 1979-2010.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, Zac is almost ideally suited as a candidate for Richmond: posh, well-heeled, polite but also very green and right-on.peter_from_putney said:
You certainly have a point there Mike, but as regards Richmond ..... if one were newly arrived from Mars, it would be difficult to conceive of a more Tory looking constituency than this ultra well-heeled part of SW London, other than perhaps its namesake in North Yorkshire!MikeSmithson said:
Blond old Etonians have served the Tories well in London befora snd Zac had built up good reputation as a constituency MP. His result in 2015 was really excellent.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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1997, not 1979. There were a lot of seats which were naturally Tory that fell to other parties that year.OldKingCole said:
Yet it was held by the LibDems from 1979-2010.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, Zac is almost ideally suited as a candidate for Richmond: posh, well-heeled, polite but also very green and right-on.peter_from_putney said:
You certainly have a point there Mike, but as regards Richmond ..... if one were newly arrived from Mars, it would be difficult to conceive of a more Tory looking constituency than this ultra well-heeled part of SW London, other than perhaps its namesake in North Yorkshire!MikeSmithson said:
Blond old Etonians have served the Tories well in London befora snd Zac had built up good reputation as a constituency MP. His result in 2015 was really excellent.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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By a Lib Dem that was posh, polite, right-on and green, there is a common theme here, respectably rich one would assume given her and her husband's interests although clearly not in the Goldsmith/Rothschild league.OldKingCole said:
Yet it was held by the LibDems from 1979-2010.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, Zac is almost ideally suited as a candidate for Richmond: posh, well-heeled, polite but also very green and right-on.peter_from_putney said:
You certainly have a point there Mike, but as regards Richmond ..... if one were newly arrived from Mars, it would be difficult to conceive of a more Tory looking constituency than this ultra well-heeled part of SW London, other than perhaps its namesake in North Yorkshire!MikeSmithson said:
Blond old Etonians have served the Tories well in London befora snd Zac had built up good reputation as a constituency MP. His result in 2015 was really excellent.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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Undoubtedly one of Life's great mysteries ..... but then again the Yellow team also held sway in both mega affluent Wimbledon and Guildford, although I suspect those days are now long gone.OldKingCole said:
Yet it was held by the LibDems from 1979-2010.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, Zac is almost ideally suited as a candidate for Richmond: posh, well-heeled, polite but also very green and right-on.peter_from_putney said:
You certainly have a point there Mike, but as regards Richmond ..... if one were newly arrived from Mars, it would be difficult to conceive of a more Tory looking constituency than this ultra well-heeled part of SW London, other than perhaps its namesake in North Yorkshire!MikeSmithson said:
Blond old Etonians have served the Tories well in London befora snd Zac had built up good reputation as a constituency MP. His result in 2015 was really excellent.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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Looks to me like in the absence of any overriding personality factors, the electorate is reverting to default party positions. Which means that Sadiq will win.
With the next election due on general election day, he'll win re-election too, barring an almighty cock-up (which I don't expect), or him voluntarily standing down in order to run for parliament, which I also don't expect because to do so and to stand for parliament would be to anticipate a leadership election after a Labour defeat and so cause all sorts of PR problems.0 -
Hunchman has an obsession with clockwork cycles and tealeaf reading for human events. I'm not surprised he's carried it across to the natural world too.Indigo said:FPT:
This has got so much WRONG in it I don't know where to start! I was sitting in my house here in the Philippines when the Bohol Earthquake on October 15th 2013 shook us for over a minute and did major damage to a number of buildings near me (I am 50 miles from the epicentre) and leveled quite a lot of buildings nearer to the centre, It measures 7.2 on the scale, inexplicably that one is missing from your list, maybe it doesn't fit the cycle, or perhaps people got confused by Category 5 super typhoon that arrived three weeks later.hunchman said:You may check these dates and seismic histories for yourself if you wish.
MARCH 11, 2011 - JAPAN 9.0
SEPTEMBER 15, 2011 - FIJI 7.3
MARCH 21, 2012 - OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4
SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 - BAJA CALIFORNIA 6.3
APRIL 1, 2013 - JAPAN 6.0
OCTOBER 6, 2013 - WEST CHILE RISE 6.2
APRIL 12, 2014 - SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.6
OCTOBER 17, 2014 - EL SALVADOR 7.3 (actual: OCT 14)
APRIL 23, 2015 - NEPAL 7.8 (actual: APR 25)
Future Cycle Dates:
OCTOBER 28, 2015
MAY 3, 2016
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
MAY 14, 2017
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/2013_Earthquake_Bulletins/October/2013_1015_0012_B3F.html
Look at it with a worldwide perspective, just yesterday there was 28 earthquakes of significant magnitude, including one north of Vanuatu that was a 7.0, that seems to be missing from your list as well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/0 -
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.0 -
Either this poll is wrong or Sadiq Khan is going to win at a canter.
Yesterday's developments would not by themselves cause 10% of the electorate to change their votes.0 -
But before he gets to the general electorate, he has to appeal to (1) Tory MPs and (2) Tory members. Besides, after a decade or so of his antics, I wonder whether the appeal is waring off a little with the public, never mind the smaller electorates?RochdalePioneers said:
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.0 -
Let alone 20%!AlastairMeeks said:Either this poll is wrong or Sadiq Khan is going to win at a canter.
Yesterday's developments would not by themselves cause 10% of the electorate to change their votes.0 -
Why would 20% need to change their minds?peter_from_putney said:
Let alone 20%!AlastairMeeks said:Either this poll is wrong or Sadiq Khan is going to win at a canter.
Yesterday's developments would not by themselves cause 10% of the electorate to change their votes.0 -
Indeed a significant portion of the London electorate is not too bothered by anti-semitism, and those that are were probably going to vote Goldsmith anyway.AlastairMeeks said:Either this poll is wrong or Sadiq Khan is going to win at a canter.
Yesterday's developments would not by themselves cause 10% of the electorate to change their votes.
Sadiq being the most electorally successful Labour figure, with a London powerbase to boot, does look good as next Labour leader if he can contrive to keep his seat in Parliament.0 -
Maybe they're all thinking of switching to UKIP?AlastairMeeks said:
Why would 20% need to change their minds?peter_from_putney said:
Let alone 20%!AlastairMeeks said:Either this poll is wrong or Sadiq Khan is going to win at a canter.
Yesterday's developments would not by themselves cause 10% of the electorate to change their votes.0 -
I share your bemusement. Whatever he has I never got it.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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Whoever first put forward Boris for Mayor of London was a genius. It was a superb meshing of the man and the role.david_herdson said:
But before he gets to the general electorate, he has to appeal to (1) Tory MPs and (2) Tory members. Besides, after a decade or so of his antics, I wonder whether the appeal is waring off a little with the public, never mind the smaller electorates?RochdalePioneers said:
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.
However, Boris's presence seemed to do little or nothing in helping the Conservatives in marginal Westminster seats across London during his tenure.0 -
You're giving him more credit than he deserves. Its all conspiracy theory 101. I understand that all earthquakes are planned on a global basis from a small basement in Finchley Road by lizards disguised as David Cameron's father.david_herdson said:
Hunchman has an obsession with clockwork cycles and tealeaf reading for human events. I'm not surprised he's carried it across to the natural world too.Indigo said:FPT:
This has got so much WRONG in it I don't know where to start! I was sitting in my house here in the Philippines when the Bohol Earthquake on October 15th 2013 shook us for over a minute and did major damage to a number of buildings near me (I am 50 miles from the epicentre) and leveled quite a lot of buildings nearer to the centre, It measures 7.2 on the scale, inexplicably that one is missing from your list, maybe it doesn't fit the cycle, or perhaps people got confused by Category 5 super typhoon that arrived three weeks later.hunchman said:You may check these dates and seismic histories for yourself if you wish.
MARCH 11, 2011 - JAPAN 9.0
SEPTEMBER 15, 2011 - FIJI 7.3
MARCH 21, 2012 - OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4
SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 - BAJA CALIFORNIA 6.3
APRIL 1, 2013 - JAPAN 6.0
OCTOBER 6, 2013 - WEST CHILE RISE 6.2
APRIL 12, 2014 - SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.6
OCTOBER 17, 2014 - EL SALVADOR 7.3 (actual: OCT 14)
APRIL 23, 2015 - NEPAL 7.8 (actual: APR 25)
Future Cycle Dates:
OCTOBER 28, 2015
MAY 3, 2016
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
MAY 14, 2017
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/2013_Earthquake_Bulletins/October/2013_1015_0012_B3F.html
Look at it with a worldwide perspective, just yesterday there was 28 earthquakes of significant magnitude, including one north of Vanuatu that was a 7.0, that seems to be missing from your list as well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/0 -
It (and chartism in investments) is really very like astrology. If you look really hard, with a bit of a squint and a generous interpretation there is a bit of a pattern, maybe. If you ignore any facts that don't fit of course.Indigo said:FPT:
This has got so much WRONG in it I don't know where to start! I was sitting in my house here in the Philippines when the Bohol Earthquake on October 15th 2013 shook us for over a minute and did major damage to a number of buildings near me (I am 50 miles from the epicentre) and leveled quite a lot of buildings nearer to the centre, It measures 7.2 on the scale, inexplicably that one is missing from your list, maybe it doesn't fit the cycle, or perhaps people got confused by Category 5 super typhoon that arrived three weeks later.hunchman said:You may check these dates and seismic histories for yourself if you wish.
MARCH 11, 2011 - JAPAN 9.0
SEPTEMBER 15, 2011 - FIJI 7.3
MARCH 21, 2012 - OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4
SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 - BAJA CALIFORNIA 6.3
APRIL 1, 2013 - JAPAN 6.0
OCTOBER 6, 2013 - WEST CHILE RISE 6.2
APRIL 12, 2014 - SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.6
OCTOBER 17, 2014 - EL SALVADOR 7.3 (actual: OCT 14)
APRIL 23, 2015 - NEPAL 7.8 (actual: APR 25)
Future Cycle Dates:
OCTOBER 28, 2015
MAY 3, 2016
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
MAY 14, 2017
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/2013_Earthquake_Bulletins/October/2013_1015_0012_B3F.html
Look at it with a worldwide perspective, just yesterday there was 28 earthquakes of significant magnitude, including one north of Vanuatu that was a 7.0, that seems to be missing from your list as well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/0 -
It will make Boris look better the worse Zac does, won't it?0
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Yes, until Zac took it. But that's not quite right: Richmond and Barnes (its predecessor) was Tory in the 80s and up until 1997.OldKingCole said:
Yet it was held by the LibDems from 1979-2010.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, Zac is almost ideally suited as a candidate for Richmond: posh, well-heeled, polite but also very green and right-on.peter_from_putney said:
You certainly have a point there Mike, but as regards Richmond ..... if one were newly arrived from Mars, it would be difficult to conceive of a more Tory looking constituency than this ultra well-heeled part of SW London, other than perhaps its namesake in North Yorkshire!MikeSmithson said:
Blond old Etonians have served the Tories well in London befora snd Zac had built up good reputation as a constituency MP. His result in 2015 was really excellent.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
Lots of wealthy urban middle-class suburbs went Lib Dem in the 1990s.0 -
@GOsborneGenius: @Maomentum_ Jeremy has bravely led the campaign for equal treatment of anti-Semites for 30 years.It is outrageous that anyone questions this
This post sponsored by NewsSense™0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: Video - What Londoners really think about Sadiq Khan and Zac Goldsmith - fascinating clips from @populuspolls
https://t.co/sA8lKxDWXs0 -
Sounds like the work of certain climatologists of email fameDavidL said:
It (and chartism in investments) is really very like astrology. If you look really hard, with a bit of a squint and a generous interpretation there is a bit of a pattern, maybe. If you ignore any facts that don't fit of course.Indigo said:FPT:
This has got so much WRONG in it I don't know where to start! I was sitting in my house here in the Philippines when the Bohol Earthquake on October 15th 2013 shook us for over a minute and did major damage to a number of buildings near me (I am 50 miles from the epicentre) and leveled quite a lot of buildings nearer to the centre, It measures 7.2 on the scale, inexplicably that one is missing from your list, maybe it doesn't fit the cycle, or perhaps people got confused by Category 5 super typhoon that arrived three weeks later.hunchman said:You may check these dates and seismic histories for yourself if you wish.
MARCH 11, 2011 - JAPAN 9.0
SEPTEMBER 15, 2011 - FIJI 7.3
MARCH 21, 2012 - OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4
SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 - BAJA CALIFORNIA 6.3
APRIL 1, 2013 - JAPAN 6.0
OCTOBER 6, 2013 - WEST CHILE RISE 6.2
APRIL 12, 2014 - SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.6
OCTOBER 17, 2014 - EL SALVADOR 7.3 (actual: OCT 14)
APRIL 23, 2015 - NEPAL 7.8 (actual: APR 25)
Future Cycle Dates:
OCTOBER 28, 2015
MAY 3, 2016
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
MAY 14, 2017
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/2013_Earthquake_Bulletins/October/2013_1015_0012_B3F.html
Look at it with a worldwide perspective, just yesterday there was 28 earthquakes of significant magnitude, including one north of Vanuatu that was a 7.0, that seems to be missing from your list as well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
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Neither did I. The alternatives were pretty piss-poor too, so best of a feeble field.DavidL said:
I share your bemusement. Whatever he has I never got it.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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Still snowing. (I know, I know, just weather). Journey to work looks so appetising that I am tempted to stay here for a while.Indigo said:
Sounds like the work of certain climatologists of email fameDavidL said:
It (and chartism in investments) is really very like astrology. If you look really hard, with a bit of a squint and a generous interpretation there is a bit of a pattern, maybe. If you ignore any facts that don't fit of course.Indigo said:FPT:
This has got so much WRONG in it I don't know where to start! I was sitting in my house here in the Philippines when the Bohol Earthquake on October 15th 2013 shook us for over a minute and did major damage to a number of buildings near me (I am 50 miles from the epicentre) and leveled quite a lot of buildings nearer to the centre, It measures 7.2 on the scale, inexplicably that one is missing from your list, maybe it doesn't fit the cycle, or perhaps people got confused by Category 5 super typhoon that arrived three weeks later.hunchman said:You may check these dates and seismic histories for yourself if you wish.
MARCH 11, 2011 - JAPAN 9.0
SEPTEMBER 15, 2011 - FIJI 7.3
MARCH 21, 2012 - OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4
SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 - BAJA CALIFORNIA 6.3
APRIL 1, 2013 - JAPAN 6.0
OCTOBER 6, 2013 - WEST CHILE RISE 6.2
APRIL 12, 2014 - SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.6
OCTOBER 17, 2014 - EL SALVADOR 7.3 (actual: OCT 14)
APRIL 23, 2015 - NEPAL 7.8 (actual: APR 25)
Future Cycle Dates:
OCTOBER 28, 2015
MAY 3, 2016
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
MAY 14, 2017
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/2013_Earthquake_Bulletins/October/2013_1015_0012_B3F.html
Look at it with a worldwide perspective, just yesterday there was 28 earthquakes of significant magnitude, including one north of Vanuatu that was a 7.0, that seems to be missing from your list as well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/0 -
Always worth remembering who Boris beat. It was a bloke called Ken Livingstone. You may have seen him on the news yesterday. He is not to everyone's taste.0
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There was a post from Ipsos MORI last night which showed how striking was the degree of correlation between the proportion of White people in any given ward in London and Boris Johnson's support. I imagine that correlation will apply to Zac Goldsmith, but running about 10% below the level of support that Boris got. The only wards that buck this trend are Kenton in Brent, and a number of wards in Harrow and Barnet.MarqueeMark said:
Whoever first put forward Boris for Mayor of London was a genius. It was a superb meshing of the man and the role.david_herdson said:
But before he gets to the general electorate, he has to appeal to (1) Tory MPs and (2) Tory members. Besides, after a decade or so of his antics, I wonder whether the appeal is waring off a little with the public, never mind the smaller electorates?RochdalePioneers said:
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.
However, Boris's presence seemed to do little or nothing in helping the Conservatives in marginal Westminster seats across London during his tenure.
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The odd thing is Boris probably could have stayed as the MoL until he retired if he wanted to, and yet has a pretty small chance of being PM because he is keeping such a low profit in the EU referendum. The problem in the referendum of course is he doesn't believe in it, so he has no passion, and is not driven enough to take risks. Boris isn't a Leaver or a Remainer, he's a Boriser.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither did I. The alternatives were pretty piss-poor too, so best of a feeble field.DavidL said:
I share your bemusement. Whatever he has I never got it.peter_from_putney said:Even now, I don't understand how Zac got the Tory nomination or what he ever had going for him.
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Boris was not Ken. That's why he won.MarqueeMark said:
Whoever first put forward Boris for Mayor of London was a genius. It was a superb meshing of the man and the role.david_herdson said:
But before he gets to the general electorate, he has to appeal to (1) Tory MPs and (2) Tory members. Besides, after a decade or so of his antics, I wonder whether the appeal is waring off a little with the public, never mind the smaller electorates?RochdalePioneers said:
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.
However, Boris's presence seemed to do little or nothing in helping the Conservatives in marginal Westminster seats across London during his tenure.
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What is the pattern? All I can see is a load of dates.matt said:
You're giving him more credit than he deserves. Its all conspiracy theory 101. I understand that all earthquakes are planned on a global basis from a small basement in Finchley Road by lizards disguised as David Cameron's father.david_herdson said:
Hunchman has an obsession with clockwork cycles and tealeaf reading for human events. I'm not surprised he's carried it across to the natural world too.Indigo said:FPT:
This has got so much WRONG in it I don't know where to start! I was sitting in my house here in the Philippines when the Bohol Earthquake on October 15th 2013 shook us for over a minute and did major damage to a number of buildings near me (I am 50 miles from the epicentre) and leveled quite a lot of buildings nearer to the centre, It measures 7.2 on the scale, inexplicably that one is missing from your list, maybe it doesn't fit the cycle, or perhaps people got confused by Category 5 super typhoon that arrived three weeks later.hunchman said:You may check these dates and seismic histories for yourself if you wish.
MARCH 11, 2011 - JAPAN 9.0
SEPTEMBER 15, 2011 - FIJI 7.3
MARCH 21, 2012 - OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4
SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 - BAJA CALIFORNIA 6.3
APRIL 1, 2013 - JAPAN 6.0
OCTOBER 6, 2013 - WEST CHILE RISE 6.2
APRIL 12, 2014 - SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.6
OCTOBER 17, 2014 - EL SALVADOR 7.3 (actual: OCT 14)
APRIL 23, 2015 - NEPAL 7.8 (actual: APR 25)
Future Cycle Dates:
OCTOBER 28, 2015
MAY 3, 2016
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
MAY 14, 2017
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/2013_Earthquake_Bulletins/October/2013_1015_0012_B3F.html
Look at it with a worldwide perspective, just yesterday there was 28 earthquakes of significant magnitude, including one north of Vanuatu that was a 7.0, that seems to be missing from your list as well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/0 -
Indeed, although Livingstone unlike Boris is (or was) a natural politician, and like Boris is a natural self-publicist, although even he may have got a little more publicity than was strictly wise recently!SouthamObserver said:Always worth remembering who Boris beat. It was a bloke called Ken Livingstone. You may have seen him on the news yesterday. He is not to everyone's taste.
0 -
Earthquakes are happening on a 188 day cycle it seems with May 3rd next.Luckyguy1983 said:
What is the pattern? All I can see is a load of dates.matt said:
You're giving him more credit than he deserves. Its all conspiracy theory 101. I understand that all earthquakes are planned on a global basis from a small basement in Finchley Road by lizards disguised as David Cameron's father.david_herdson said:
Hunchman has an obsession with clockwork cycles and tealeaf reading for human events. I'm not surprised he's carried it across to the natural world too.Indigo said:FPT:
This has got so much WRONG in it I don't know where to start! I was sitting in my house here in the Philippines when the Bohol Earthquake on October 15th 2013 shook us for over a minute and did major damage to a number of buildings near me (I am 50 miles from the epicentre) and leveled quite a lot of buildings nearer to the centre, It measures 7.2 on the scale, inexplicably that one is missing from your list, maybe it doesn't fit the cycle, or perhaps people got confused by Category 5 super typhoon that arrived three weeks later.hunchman said:You may check these dates and seismic histories for yourself if you wish.
MARCH 11, 2011 - JAPAN 9.0
SEPTEMBER 15, 2011 - FIJI 7.3
MARCH 21, 2012 - OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4
SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 - BAJA CALIFORNIA 6.3
APRIL 1, 2013 - JAPAN 6.0
OCTOBER 6, 2013 - WEST CHILE RISE 6.2
APRIL 12, 2014 - SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.6
OCTOBER 17, 2014 - EL SALVADOR 7.3 (actual: OCT 14)
APRIL 23, 2015 - NEPAL 7.8 (actual: APR 25)
Future Cycle Dates:
OCTOBER 28, 2015
MAY 3, 2016
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
MAY 14, 2017
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/2013_Earthquake_Bulletins/October/2013_1015_0012_B3F.html
Look at it with a worldwide perspective, just yesterday there was 28 earthquakes of significant magnitude, including one north of Vanuatu that was a 7.0, that seems to be missing from your list as well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
Except all those that don't.
0 -
This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.0 -
What's the correlation between skin colour and wealth in London? As we know, older, wealthier people tend to vote Tory. It could be that in London a large part of that demographic has white skin.Sean_F said:
There was a post from Ipsos MORI last night which showed how striking was the degree of correlation between the proportion of White people in any given ward in London and Boris Johnson's support. I imagine that correlation will apply to Zac Goldsmith, but running about 10% below the level of support that Boris got. The only wards that buck this trend are Kenton in Brent, and a number of wards in Harrow and Barnet.MarqueeMark said:
Whoever first put forward Boris for Mayor of London was a genius. It was a superb meshing of the man and the role.david_herdson said:
But before he gets to the general electorate, he has to appeal to (1) Tory MPs and (2) Tory members. Besides, after a decade or so of his antics, I wonder whether the appeal is waring off a little with the public, never mind the smaller electorates?RochdalePioneers said:
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.
However, Boris's presence seemed to do little or nothing in helping the Conservatives in marginal Westminster seats across London during his tenure.
0 -
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
0 -
Yes it will. But not that tight.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.0 -
It was 38% in 2012 when the candidates were Boris and Ken, charisma bypass operation patients Zac and Sadiq won't help turnout.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
Low turnout should help Zac but I fully expect Khan to win next week.0 -
Electorate of 5000 people.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would 20% need to change their minds?peter_from_putney said:
Let alone 20%!AlastairMeeks said:Either this poll is wrong or Sadiq Khan is going to win at a canter.
Yesterday's developments would not by themselves cause 10% of the electorate to change their votes.
Lets assume there would have been 40% turnout
Of 2000,
Assume 80% go for eventual 2nd prefs: (160)
960 go for Khan, 640 Zac (2nd prefs)
Lets assume the set 50% Khan voters stay at home , 30 % switch 2nd pref to not Zac (Green to Libs, libs to green equally on 2nd prefs){ not Khan}, 20% switch to Zac.(80-20 applicable maybe ?)
270 voters: -270 Khan, +54 Zac
690 Khan, 694 Zac
270/5000 = 5.4%
Turnout now looks like 2000 - 135 = 37.3% with the top two candidates always appearing to get ~ 74% of the vote.
So the real figure is going to be way less than 10%. Of course if you're only talking about those that voted then it is 13.5% with the above assumptions ^^;0 -
There have been 23 earthquakes of 7.0 or higher on the scale in the last year, seems like 188 days might be a touch optimistic, more like once a fortnight.foxinsoxuk said:
Earthquakes are happening on a 188 day cycle it seems with May 3rd next.Luckyguy1983 said:
What is the pattern? All I can see is a load of dates.
Except all those that don't.
0 -
There's a clear pattern with earthquakes.Indigo said:
There have been 23 earthquakes of 7.0 or higher on the scale in the last year, seems like 188 days might be a touch optimistic, more like once a fortnight.foxinsoxuk said:
Earthquakes are happening on a 188 day cycle it seems with May 3rd next.Luckyguy1983 said:
What is the pattern? All I can see is a load of dates.
Except all those that don't.
They always happen on days that end with a y.0 -
Zac's campaign may also have galvanised anti-Tory sentiment and made generic anti-Tories more likely to vote. It'll be an interesting one. You're right, though: if 2012 was 38%, it's hard to see this year going any higher.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was 38% in 2012 when the candidates were Boris and Ken, charisma bypass operation patients Zac and Sadiq won't help turnout.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
Low turnout should help Zac but I fully expect Khan to win next week.
0 -
Yeah I just saw that as well. Lots of people saying they will vote and then not bothering. I wonder, when was the last time that happened and which party's supporters were guilty of it?TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jka3nb9CGV8TheScreamingEagles said:
It was 38% in 2012 when the candidates were Boris and Ken, charisma bypass operation patients Zac and Sadiq won't help turnout.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
Low turnout should help Zac but I fully expect Khan to win next week.0 -
I think Boris fooled the powers that be that it didn't matter that you were an OE posho you could still win London Mayor and hence they went for another one.
They forgot that you also need to be Boris, which Zac certainly is not.0 -
Morning! It won't be close to 82%, more like 32%.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
I wonder what's in store for us today, after the past two rather hectic political days?0 -
Are we forgetting that Labour outperformed the polls in the last Mayoral election, when turnout was also poor?0
-
Probably a fair degree of correlation, which explains why the Conservatives still hold Harrow East, Hendon, and Finchley & Golders Green. In general though, suburban North London has gone from being a Conservative stronghold to a marginal sub-region over a generation.SouthamObserver said:
What's the correlation between skin colour and wealth in London? As we know, older, wealthier people tend to vote Tory. It could be that in London a large part of that demographic has white skin.Sean_F said:
There was a post from Ipsos MORI last night which showed how striking was the degree of correlation between the proportion of White people in any given ward in London and Boris Johnson's support. I imagine that correlation will apply to Zac Goldsmith, but running about 10% below the level of support that Boris got. The only wards that buck this trend are Kenton in Brent, and a number of wards in Harrow and Barnet.MarqueeMark said:
Whoever first put forward Boris for Mayor of London was a genius. It was a superb meshing of the man and the role.david_herdson said:
But before he gets to the general electorate, he has to appeal to (1) Tory MPs and (2) Tory members. Besides, after a decade or so of his antics, I wonder whether the appeal is waring off a little with the public, never mind the smaller electorates?RochdalePioneers said:
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.
However, Boris's presence seemed to do little or nothing in helping the Conservatives in marginal Westminster seats across London during his tenure.
0 -
(I) Fancy he's very much to the taste of the Block-Postal-Voting Community.SouthamObserver said:Always worth remembering who Boris beat. It was a bloke called Ken Livingstone. You may have seen him on the news yesterday. He is not to everyone's taste.
0 -
I think the last couple of days may end up depressing turnout from that particular group and fire up a few Tories and neutrals that were looking to sit this one out.SouthamObserver said:
Zac's campaign may also have galvanised anti-Tory sentiment and made generic anti-Tories more likely to vote. It'll be an interesting one. You're right, though: if 2012 was 38%, it's hard to see this year going any higher.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was 38% in 2012 when the candidates were Boris and Ken, charisma bypass operation patients Zac and Sadiq won't help turnout.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
Low turnout should help Zac but I fully expect Khan to win next week.0 -
Boris is a sufficiently flamboyant character that his posh background or trouser dropping antics don't count against him. Those rules do not apply to other posh boys. Zac always seems like a posh boy on an extended gap year to me.TOPPING said:I think Boris fooled the powers that be that it didn't matter that you were an OE posho you could still win London Mayor and hence they went for another one.
They forgot that you also need to be Boris, which Zac certainly is not.
0 -
The vast majority of the population have a negative view of Israel and will view this with indifference or as a Westminster bubble smear campaign.MaxPB said:
I think the last couple of days may end up depressing turnout from that particular group and fire up a few Tories and neutrals that were looking to sit this one out.SouthamObserver said:
Zac's campaign may also have galvanised anti-Tory sentiment and made generic anti-Tories more likely to vote. It'll be an interesting one. You're right, though: if 2012 was 38%, it's hard to see this year going any higher.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was 38% in 2012 when the candidates were Boris and Ken, charisma bypass operation patients Zac and Sadiq won't help turnout.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
Low turnout should help Zac but I fully expect Khan to win next week.0 -
'vote harvesting'MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
I'm also expecting some remarkable levels of vote harvesting for the Great Khan in parts of inner London, based on the expectation of the resulting, er, patronage that helping secure his tenure will bring certain "community leaders".
'patronage'
'many voters not bothered about anti-semitism' (Dr. Fox)
This is our liberal, progressive capital, right?
0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Snow, again. At least it seems to be melting fast.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, just 6 hours left on this poll [it's not an academic question, I'll use it to help me decide how to release a trilogy]:
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/723496885575671808
If you'd like to vote but you're not on Twitter [and don't want to be] just leave a comment here:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/timing-trilogy.html0 -
Presumably as much due to the rise of the milibandesque champagne socialist set as much as anything ?Sean_F said:
Probably a fair degree of correlation, which explains why the Conservatives still hold Harrow East, Hendon, and Finchley & Golders Green. In general though, suburban North London has gone from being a Conservative stronghold to a marginal sub-region over a generation.SouthamObserver said:
What's the correlation between skin colour and wealth in London? As we know, older, wealthier people tend to vote Tory. It could be that in London a large part of that demographic has white skin.Sean_F said:
There was a post from Ipsos MORI last night which showed how striking was the degree of correlation between the proportion of White people in any given ward in London and Boris Johnson's support. I imagine that correlation will apply to Zac Goldsmith, but running about 10% below the level of support that Boris got. The only wards that buck this trend are Kenton in Brent, and a number of wards in Harrow and Barnet.MarqueeMark said:
Whoever first put forward Boris for Mayor of London was a genius. It was a superb meshing of the man and the role.david_herdson said:
But before he gets to the general electorate, he has to appeal to (1) Tory MPs and (2) Tory members. Besides, after a decade or so of his antics, I wonder whether the appeal is waring off a little with the public, never mind the smaller electorates?RochdalePioneers said:
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.
However, Boris's presence seemed to do little or nothing in helping the Conservatives in marginal Westminster seats across London during his tenure.0 -
Littlejohn claims prescience:
The new, virulent strain of anti-semitism is driven by an unholy alliance between militant Islam and the Fascist Left. No, I didn’t write that yesterday, I wrote it in this newspaper nine years ago to accompany a TV documentary I made called The War On Britain’s Jews?
The question mark was at Channel 4’s insistence, but I’m not complaining. Back then it was heresy to suggest that anyone on the Left could be guilty of discriminating against any minority community. If it took a question mark to get the programme broadcast, that was fine by me.
My thesis was that self-styled ‘anti-Zionists’ were using their visceral hatred of Israel to intimidate Jews in this country. Does anybody today, outside of the lunatic fringe which now runs the modern Labour Party, doubt that I got it right?
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3564672/The-fascists-poisoned-heart-Labour-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Jew-baiting-lunatic-fringe-charge-Corbyn-s-party.html#ixzz47CEah5wc
0 -
I think that says rather more about you than the population.JWisemann said:
The vast majority of the population have a negative view of Israel and will view this with indifference or as a Westminster bubble smear campaign.MaxPB said:
I think the last couple of days may end up depressing turnout from that particular group and fire up a few Tories and neutrals that were looking to sit this one out.SouthamObserver said:
Zac's campaign may also have galvanised anti-Tory sentiment and made generic anti-Tories more likely to vote. It'll be an interesting one. You're right, though: if 2012 was 38%, it's hard to see this year going any higher.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was 38% in 2012 when the candidates were Boris and Ken, charisma bypass operation patients Zac and Sadiq won't help turnout.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
Low turnout should help Zac but I fully expect Khan to win next week.
The correct statement would be that vast majority of the population don't give a hoot about either Israel or Palestine.0 -
The BME vote in parts of London is anything but liberal and progressive. "Social Conservatism" is as much a feature of the Brick Lane Taliban as the Turnip Taliban.runnymede said:
'vote harvesting'MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
I'm also expecting some remarkable levels of vote harvesting for the Great Khan in parts of inner London, based on the expectation of the resulting, er, patronage that helping secure his tenure will bring certain "community leaders".
'patronage'
'many voters not bothered about anti-semitism' (Dr. Fox)
This is our liberal, progressive capital, right?
It is not just that parts of our electorate are not bothered by anti-semitism, parts are positively enthusiastic about it.0 -
Almost everyone I know who lives in London is a leftie with the sole exception of my sister who is almost alarmingly right wing0
-
Nah. Adolf Hitler is not popular in this country, and if a prominent party member is debating whether he was a Zionist, that party has a problem.JWisemann said:
The vast majority of the population have a negative view of Israel and will view this with indifference or as a Westminster bubble smear campaign.MaxPB said:
I think the last couple of days may end up depressing turnout from that particular group and fire up a few Tories and neutrals that were looking to sit this one out.SouthamObserver said:
Zac's campaign may also have galvanised anti-Tory sentiment and made generic anti-Tories more likely to vote. It'll be an interesting one. You're right, though: if 2012 was 38%, it's hard to see this year going any higher.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was 38% in 2012 when the candidates were Boris and Ken, charisma bypass operation patients Zac and Sadiq won't help turnout.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
Low turnout should help Zac but I fully expect Khan to win next week.
0 -
No a reduction in home ownership rates for North London suburbs. Lots of local Tories know that until the government step in and force private landlords out of the market in London the city is lost to us within the next 2-3 electoral cycles.Indigo said:
Presumably as much due to the rise of the milibandesque champagne socialist set as much as anything ?Sean_F said:
Probably a fair degree of correlation, which explains why the Conservatives still hold Harrow East, Hendon, and Finchley & Golders Green. In general though, suburban North London has gone from being a Conservative stronghold to a marginal sub-region over a generation.SouthamObserver said:
What's the correlation between skin colour and wealth in London? As we know, older, wealthier people tend to vote Tory. It could be that in London a large part of that demographic has white skin.Sean_F said:
There was a post from Ipsos MORI last night which showed how striking was the degree of correlation between the proportion of White people in any given ward in London and Boris Johnson's support. I imagine that correlation will apply to Zac Goldsmith, but running about 10% below the level of support that Boris got. The only wards that buck this trend are Kenton in Brent, and a number of wards in Harrow and Barnet.MarqueeMark said:
Whoever first put forward Boris for Mayor of London was a genius. It was a superb meshing of the man and the role.david_herdson said:
But before he gets to the general electorate, he has to appeal to (1) Tory MPs and (2) Tory members. Besides, after a decade or so of his antics, I wonder whether the appeal is waring off a little with the public, never mind the smaller electorates?RochdalePioneers said:
Don't write off Boris as Tory leader just yet. He has appeal cross party lines, apparently a buffoon but intelligent and self deprecating. A populist with a way with words and a way with the media. And from what I can see the Tory grass roots love him.MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
Compared to some of the other viable options touted such as May (psychotic) or Hammond (like Major minus the personality) he might actually have a chance of connectino with the electorate.
However, Boris's presence seemed to do little or nothing in helping the Conservatives in marginal Westminster seats across London during his tenure.0 -
To be fair the folk that sing about gassing Jews at Stamford Bridge, Upton Park and the New Den don't tend to be Moslems. As the story posted yesterday on here demonstrated, anti-Semitism is still fairly widespread in the UK. What makes Labour unique among the mainstream parties is the way so many of its activists are happy to parade their anti-Semitism and/or to indulge it in others. Seamus Milne does not hate Jews, but he does hate America and will stand shoulder to shoulder with whoever else does. And Seamus is not alone.runnymede said:
'vote harvesting'MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
I'm also expecting some remarkable levels of vote harvesting for the Great Khan in parts of inner London, based on the expectation of the resulting, er, patronage that helping secure his tenure will bring certain "community leaders".
'patronage'
'many voters not bothered about anti-semitism' (Dr. Fox)
This is our liberal, progressive capital, right?
0 -
You are half right. Consistently those that have a view in polling are overwhelmingly negative, with huge numbers also indifferent. Those with a favourable view of Israel are in a tiny minority, except amongst our media and political elites. People are sick of this constant boy-who-cried-wolf schtick from a racist state and its followers.Indigo said:
I think that says rather more about you than the population.JWisemann said:
The vast majority of the population have a negative view of Israel and will view this with indifference or as a Westminster bubble smear campaign.MaxPB said:
I think the last couple of days may end up depressing turnout from that particular group and fire up a few Tories and neutrals that were looking to sit this one out.SouthamObserver said:
Zac's campaign may also have galvanised anti-Tory sentiment and made generic anti-Tories more likely to vote. It'll be an interesting one. You're right, though: if 2012 was 38%, it's hard to see this year going any higher.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was 38% in 2012 when the candidates were Boris and Ken, charisma bypass operation patients Zac and Sadiq won't help turnout.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be under 50%. That should make it a much tighter race.TheScreamingEagles said:This poll is expecting an 82% turnout.
I will eat my hat if it is 82% or higher.
Low turnout should help Zac but I fully expect Khan to win next week.
The correct statement would be that vast majority of the population don't give a hoot about either Israel or Palestine.0 -
Morning all.
Looks like the May Day parades this year will be led by a fleet of snow ploughs...0 -
-
The only genuine anti-semitic behaviour I have encountered in the UK has been from right-wingers.0
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MaxPB said:
No a reduction in home ownership rates for North London suburbs. Lots of local Tories know that until the government step in and force private landlords out of the market in London the city is lost to us within the next 2-3 electoral cycles.
Forcing private landlords out will not reduce prices - there's too much demand.
The only way to deal with it is to reduce immigration, but many in London don't want that.
People would own (and not rent) if they could afford to buy, but the prices are just too high with the extra demand.
0 -
London is the centre of the Corbyn project. It's the epitome of the Corbyn coalition of Respect and Green style voters. New Old Labour.
Fully expect the suburbs to be vehemently anti-Khan.0 -
six months maximumMorris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Snow, again. At least it seems to be melting fast.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, just 6 hours left on this poll [it's not an academic question, I'll use it to help me decide how to release a trilogy]:
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/723496885575671808
If you'd like to vote but you're not on Twitter [and don't want to be] just leave a comment here:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/timing-trilogy.html0 -
Michael Deacon on top form
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/28/from-hitler-to-hiding-in-the-loo-how-ken-livingstone-tackled-lab/0 -
@georgeeaton: Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones joins Sadiq Khan in refusing to campaign with Corbyn. https://t.co/WDVYU8793K0
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Tories and Labour pig sick that Mercedes will not give them a fleet at peppercorn lease rates.Scott_P said:
PS Quality says it all, Labour have Trabants , Tories have Reliant Robins, Lib Dems have trikes.0 -
Cheers, Mr. G.0
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But it is no cheaper to rent. Buy to let mortgages means the renter's are having to pay off someone's mortage.MarkHopkins said:MaxPB said:No a reduction in home ownership rates for North London suburbs. Lots of local Tories know that until the government step in and force private landlords out of the market in London the city is lost to us within the next 2-3 electoral cycles.
Forcing private landlords out will not reduce prices - there's too much demand.
The only way to deal with it is to reduce immigration, but many in London don't want that.
People would own (and not rent) if they could afford to buy, but the prices are just too high with the extra demand.0 -
Isn't turnout supposedly 80% in this poll? Sure I saw a tweet from Matt Singh about it last nightchestnut said:Poll sponsored by the London "Fairness" Commission.
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That's true of Boris when he is running for a city mayor job without huge amounts of real power. For the role of mayor during the Olympics he was absolutely the right choice. The electorate feel very different about buffoonery and trouser-dropping antics when the man in question is trying to become PM and take the UK's seat on the serious world stage.foxinsoxuk said:
Boris is a sufficiently flamboyant character that his posh background or trouser dropping antics don't count against him. Those rules do not apply to other posh boys. Zac always seems like a posh boy on an extended gap year to me.TOPPING said:I think Boris fooled the powers that be that it didn't matter that you were an OE posho you could still win London Mayor and hence they went for another one.
They forgot that you also need to be Boris, which Zac certainly is not.0 -
The football crowds singing about gassing jews are pretty repellant, but that is football rather than ethnic rivalry (just as Spurs fans singing Yid Army are often not jewish). I have never heard any such racist chanting at Leicester City BTW.SouthamObserver said:
To be fair the folk that sing about gassing Jews at Stamford Bridge, Upton Park and the New Den don't tend to be Moslems. As the story posted yesterday on here demonstrated, anti-Semitism is still fairly widespread in the UK. What makes Labour unique among the mainstream parties is the way so many of its activists are happy to parade their anti-Semitism and/or to indulge it in others. Seamus Milne does not hate Jews, but he does hate America and will stand shoulder to shoulder with whoever else does. And Seamus is not alone.runnymede said:
'vote harvesting'MarqueeMark said:London is an urban Labour bastion. You wouldn't expect a Tory Mayor of Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle. That Boris infiltrated himself in is a measure of how remarkable his personal appeal extended.
I'm also expecting some remarkable levels of vote harvesting for the Great Khan in parts of inner London, based on the expectation of the resulting, er, patronage that helping secure his tenure will bring certain "community leaders".
'patronage'
'many voters not bothered about anti-semitism' (Dr. Fox)
This is our liberal, progressive capital, right?
Residual anti-semitism in Britain is distasteful, but what is particularly is particularly worrying about the new anti-semitism of the left is that it justifies and legitimises violence and even murder. It also carries a lot of misogynistic and homophobic baggage with it.0 -
Turnout was low in 2012 when Labour outperformed the polls.Plato_Says said:
Isn't turnout supposedly 80% in this poll? Sure I saw a tweet from Matt Singh about it last nightchestnut said:Poll sponsored by the London "Fairness" Commission.
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Do you live on some remote Scottish island?JWisemann said:The only genuine anti-semitic behaviour I have encountered in the UK has been from right-wingers.
Clearly, you have no time to read any newspapers, even 'The Guardian':
CST said in 2014 there were 81 violent assaults, 81 incidents of damage and desecration of Jewish property, and 884 cases of abusive behaviour, more than double the number in 2013, several hundred of which involved social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter. CST’s logs include a letter sent to a Jewish organisation which read: “Gaza is the Auschwitz. The inmates are fighting back. The Jew wears the jackboot and armband now.”
The charity said the surge in antisemitism was fuelled by reactions to the conflict in Gaza in July and August that claimed the lives of 2,131 Palestinians and 71 Israelis, according to the UN. It appears to reflect an international trend. Last year in France and Austria the number of incidents doubled, according to reports by the Service de Protection de la Communauté Juive and the Vienna-based Forum Against Antisemitism.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/05/antisemitic-attacks-uk-community-security-trust-britain-jewish-population
Your Moniker is most misleading. Mr Wisemann.0 -
So the pollsters haven't quite got a handle on industrial-scale vote harvesting? You may well be right.JWisemann said:Are we forgetting that Labour outperformed the polls in the last Mayoral election, when turnout was also poor?
Sadiq Khan will benefit from the votes of many who will never have seen their ballot paper, will not know they voted, still less who they voted for - and may not even know they are registered in the first place. Quite a challenge for pollsters to make much sense of that.0 -
Two average candidates in a Labour city= Labour win - whodathunkit?Sean_F said:0 -
Have to say I have never seen any anti-semitic behaviour either, I am not on a remote island but in west of Scotland. Plenty of other racism and bigotry, so maybe they don't have time for it. Not everywhere is like London or big cities where the most scumbags congregate.LewisDuckworth said:
Do you live on some remote Scottish island?JWisemann said:The only genuine anti-semitic behaviour I have encountered in the UK has been from right-wingers.
Clearly, you have no time to read any newspapers, even 'The Guardian':
CST said in 2014 there were 81 violent assaults, 81 incidents of damage and desecration of Jewish property, and 884 cases of abusive behaviour, more than double the number in 2013, several hundred of which involved social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter. CST’s logs include a letter sent to a Jewish organisation which read: “Gaza is the Auschwitz. The inmates are fighting back. The Jew wears the jackboot and armband now.”
The charity said the surge in antisemitism was fuelled by reactions to the conflict in Gaza in July and August that claimed the lives of 2,131 Palestinians and 71 Israelis, according to the UN. It appears to reflect an international trend. Last year in France and Austria the number of incidents doubled, according to reports by the Service de Protection de la Communauté Juive and the Vienna-based Forum Against Antisemitism.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/05/antisemitic-attacks-uk-community-security-trust-britain-jewish-population
Your Moniker is most misleading. Mr Wisemann.
PS: you have to be pretty desperate if you read the Guardian , again for ponces in the city0 -
With average London house prices over double UK house prices you have to get a mortgage first, most young people working in London rent and if they want to buy once married move out to the home counties or outer suburbs, those who buy in London now tend to be the rich or foreigners which is why over half of Londoners now rentAlistair said:
But it is no cheaper to rent. Buy to let mortgages means the renter's are having to pay off someone's mortage.MarkHopkins said:MaxPB said:No a reduction in home ownership rates for North London suburbs. Lots of local Tories know that until the government step in and force private landlords out of the market in London the city is lost to us within the next 2-3 electoral cycles.
Forcing private landlords out will not reduce prices - there's too much demand.
The only way to deal with it is to reduce immigration, but many in London don't want that.
People would own (and not rent) if they could afford to buy, but the prices are just too high with the extra demand.0
