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Labour's problem is that they could get massacred everywhere except London and since most Corbyn supporters live in the capital they turn a blind eye to how badly they've done.rottenborough said:Telegraph:
Labour is on course to suffer its worst result in opposition for 34 years at the local elections, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has warned.0 -
Yeah but ... yeah but @Barnesian says Jezza will be PM in 2020 ....rottenborough said:Telegraph:
Labour is on course to suffer its worst result in opposition for 34 years at the local elections, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has warned.
x plenty 0 -
Quite right. Getting in a frightful huff about Dave's tactics, leaflets, Kinnock, Obama and the rest of it is just demeaning. If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world? The EU and the US would chew them up and spit them out.Scott_P said:If people had been paying attention during the AV referendum, they would know Cameron plays to win.
What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.
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Even if UKIP picked up 4% direct from the Tories they would still be on 33% and Labour are unlikely to be up 3%, especially if LDs also upJackW said:
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.Barnesian said:
My predictionIndigo said:
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.Stark_Dawning said:Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.0 -
I blame Disraeli and Alastair Matlock late of this parish.David_Evershed said:
Conservatives have reigned continously at the Buckinghamshire County Council longer than any political party has governed continuously anywhere else in the world - over 130 years.Philip_Thompson said:
Nah vote for me for sound governance and the other guy is crap is the entire purpose of the Conservatives. The world's oldest political party for a reason. Issues change, crap opposition is eternal.Indigo said:
Nah, "vote for me because the other guy is more crap" is just a call to stay on the sofa. I want to have a reason to vote for a party, otherwise it's just the political equivalent of high street banking, where they all offer a crap service and try to win your custom on the basis of not being quite as crap as their competitors. After a while the sliver of crapness differentiating the options is so small as to be insignificant, or they are all sufficiently crap options that you can't be bothered to vote for any of themPhilip_Thompson said:Sounds convincing to me and was convincing enough to the electorate. Can add Foot and others to the lists.
IDS-style histrionics are far less convincing.0 -
Especially since their excuse for losing (which they are already running) is "a big boy (Cameron) did it, and ran away"Stark_Dawning said:If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world?
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To you. Not to everyone else. This is the point, Hannan, Carswell, and to a certain extent yourself Richard, are content to be in a small 'right' minority. Which is why they've simply sat in their ivory tower being right, eloquent, and accumulating an encyclopaedic knowledge on EU failings, for the past 20 odd years, achieving the square root of f**k all. Hannan should be leader of the Tory party. Why isn't he? If it takes 'UKIP egos' to get something done, then so be it. BOO Tories have done nothing, and now they're buggering up this entire campaign for Leave.Richard_Tyndall said:
A party built around the principles of Hannan and Carswell but without the UKIP egos would be very attractive.Indigo said:
Hopefully Dan Hannan will throw in the Tory towel and form the "Fed Up With The EU But Not A Bunch Of Incompetent Fuckwits Party", most of the sensible Kippers and the Tory right will leave to join it, the remaining selection of fruitcakes and loons will stay in UKIP and go the way of the BNP.kle4 said:Hung parliament in 2020, Labour coalition government as 10 years of Tory rule combined with absolute failure to meet their own targets mean the fear of economic trouble from Labour is lessened and the SNP fear isn't effective enough to counter fatigue of Tory government.
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Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.0
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/Plato_Says said:Be interesting to see threads on this and Kipper prospects in those seats.
Labour is on course to suffer its worst result in opposition for 34 years at the local elections, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has warned.
The party will lose 170 councillors and control of a string of councils if people vote as the polls currently suggest, according to analysis by Prof John Curtice for The Telegraph.
Corbynism sweeping the nation.....0 -
What's Osborne going to leave in there? An IOU and a Werther's Original wrapper?JackW said:
More than the Labour party left in the treasury according to Liam Byrne .timetrompette said:The penny's dropping.
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Ports Directive.Philip_Thompson said:
Nah the EU has bigger fish to fry and reigniting "the British problem" is the last thing on their mind. Their priorities are saving Schengen, saving the Euro, Greece and resolving the migrant crisis. All of which we are absent partners from. We are the last thing on their mind.Richard_Tyndall said:
If you think the EU is suddenly going to become a non issue if we vote to Remain then you are in for a very nasty shock. And it won't be the Eurosceptics driving it, it will be the EU itself.Philip_Thompson said:
I think the economy, the deficit, tax rates, health, education etc could be challenging too ...Richard_Tyndall said:
But tomorrow's challenges will be.... the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
It's not waving it away, it's accepting the result whichever way the chips fall and moving on to something more productive. What point is there rehashing yesterday's battle when there's tomorrow's challenges to unite around instead?Indigo said:
The attempts to handwave away the views of 40%+ of the electorate never cease to amaze me.Stark_Dawning said:No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now. It's just a lot of grief for no other purpose than giving their more 'colourful' colleagues too much airtime. When Remain triumphs I can see everyone keenly moving on to something else.
Increased EU Budget
Proposals on harmonising Social Security
All on standby, pulled from votes in the European Parliament until the referendum is through. You can't see any controversy there ? The last two will be like red rags to a Eurosceptic bull.0 -
Tw@t...
Some idiot got on the track and was collared by security
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/sport/2016/04/24/sumgong-invader-medium_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.jpg0 -
This year' Local Govt seats were actually last fought in 2012 when Labour made 823 gains. Losing just 170 of that total would be no disaster. Labour did worse in 1959 - 1960 - 1961 -1982 - 1983 - 1987 - 1992 in Opposition.0
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Indeed. But the Tories need only play the SNP/Jezza coalition card and another raft of Labour marginals come onto the hit list.HYUFD said:
Even if UKIP picked up 4% direct from the Tories they would still be on 33% and Labour are unlikely to be up 3%, especially if LDs also upJackW said:
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.Barnesian said:
My predictionIndigo said:
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.Stark_Dawning said:Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.
English voters will not stand for Jezza as PM let alone as Nicola's puppet with her hand up his arse.0 -
Probably a few more sweeties than that .... and don't forget the paid up membership form for the EU. Hhhmmm .... perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned that ....Luckyguy1983 said:
What's Osborne going to leave in there? An IOU and a Werther's Original wrapper?JackW said:
More than the Labour party left in the treasury according to Liam Byrne .timetrompette said:The penny's dropping.
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You keep repeating that, it doesn't make it right. In the real world you move people that are important to you to the front of the queue. If you are a busy executive with limited slots in your diary, you make damn sure to fill those slots with your most important investors and customers, not the guy that spends a couple of grand a month. It was most definitely a slight, it say you are not important enough for any sort of special treatment, you are a bit player that can take their place at the back of the queue with the other tin pot banana republics.Philip_Thompson said:
Only if you view not rolling over as dirty.EICIPM said:The problem will not be that LEAVE lose, it'll be that REMAIN and Cameron in particular have made it a grudge match by playing dirty. They should have expected no less
The idea that a new entrant joining a queue at the back is viewed as a threat rather than the norm shows just how deluded some people are. Of course you join a queue at the back any one can see that, it shouldn't come as unexpected.
"First class passengers board first".0 -
But as we are seeing it may well be those UKIP type egos that lose the referendum for Leave. If we had more like Hannan, Carswell and Gove we would have a far better chanceLuckyguy1983 said:
To you. Not to everyone else. This is the point, Hannan, Carswell, and to a certain extent yourself Richard, are content to be in a small 'right' minority. Which is why they've simply sat in their ivory tower being right, eloquent, and accumulating an encyclopaedic knowledge on EU failings, for the past 20 odd years, achieving the square root of f**k all. Hannan should be leader of the Tory party. Why isn't he? If it takes 'UKIP egos' to get something done, then so be it. BOO Tories have done nothing, and now they're buggering up this entire campaign for Leave.Richard_Tyndall said:
A party built around the principles of Hannan and Carswell but without the UKIP egos would be very attractive.Indigo said:
Hopefully Dan Hannan will throw in the Tory towel and form the "Fed Up With The EU But Not A Bunch Of Incompetent Fuckwits Party", most of the sensible Kippers and the Tory right will leave to join it, the remaining selection of fruitcakes and loons will stay in UKIP and go the way of the BNP.kle4 said:Hung parliament in 2020, Labour coalition government as 10 years of Tory rule combined with absolute failure to meet their own targets mean the fear of economic trouble from Labour is lessened and the SNP fear isn't effective enough to counter fatigue of Tory government.
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Maybe some wallpaper samples too.Luckyguy1983 said:
What's Osborne going to leave in there? An IOU and a Werther's Original wrapper?JackW said:
More than the Labour party left in the treasury according to Liam Byrne .timetrompette said:The penny's dropping.
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A budget surplus, really? Love the optimism, you should come off your prescription more often.JackW said:
Probably a few more sweeties than that .... and don't forget the paid up membership form for the EU. Hhhmmm .... perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned that ....Luckyguy1983 said:
What's Osborne going to leave in there? An IOU and a Werther's Original wrapper?JackW said:
More than the Labour party left in the treasury according to Liam Byrne .timetrompette said:The penny's dropping.
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For some value of "losing" when you have 40-50 Eurosceptics and a majority of 18.williamglenn said:
The Eurosceptics made it a grudge match in the 90s. What is happening now is just a realisation that they are on the losing side.EICIPM said:The problem will not be that LEAVE lose, it'll be that REMAIN and Cameron in particular have made it a grudge match by playing dirty. They should have expected no less
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Interesting point. Arguably if it hadn't been for Dave and Nigel there wouldn't have been a referendum at all. What have the Tory eurosceptic Right ever given us? The leadership of IDS and that's about it.Luckyguy1983 said:
To you. Not to everyone else. This is the point, Hannan, Carswell, and to a certain extent yourself Richard, are content to be in a small 'right' minority. Which is why they've simply sat in their ivory tower being right, eloquent, and accumulating an encyclopaedic knowledge on EU failings, for the past 20 odd years, achieving the square root of f**k all. Hannan should be leader of the Tory party. Why isn't he? If it takes 'UKIP egos' to get something done, then so be it. BOO Tories have done nothing, and now they're buggering up this entire campaign for Leave.Richard_Tyndall said:
A party built around the principles of Hannan and Carswell but without the UKIP egos would be very attractive.Indigo said:
Hopefully Dan Hannan will throw in the Tory towel and form the "Fed Up With The EU But Not A Bunch Of Incompetent Fuckwits Party", most of the sensible Kippers and the Tory right will leave to join it, the remaining selection of fruitcakes and loons will stay in UKIP and go the way of the BNP.kle4 said:Hung parliament in 2020, Labour coalition government as 10 years of Tory rule combined with absolute failure to meet their own targets mean the fear of economic trouble from Labour is lessened and the SNP fear isn't effective enough to counter fatigue of Tory government.
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Yes, then there will be a huge squealing of brakes as Scott&Paste realigns himself to his new briefing, Boris is in No10 now, so he isn't a lunatic at all any more, that was just a misunderstanding, he will now be the new messiah, with sunlight radiating through the seat of his well cut suit.shiney2 said:@Scott_p
make sure your parachute is on scott
Last 100Days of Dodgy Dave..0 -
Many of which will require action that will be directly opposed to our interests. That is the point.Philip_Thompson said:
Nah the EU has bigger fish to fry and reigniting "the British problem" is the last thing on their mind. Their priorities are saving Schengen, saving the Euro, Greece and resolving the migrant crisis. All of which we are absent partners from. We are the last thing on their mind.Richard_Tyndall said:
If you think the EU is suddenly going to become a non issue if we vote to Remain then you are in for a very nasty shock. And it won't be the Eurosceptics driving it, it will be the EU itself.Philip_Thompson said:
I think the economy, the deficit, tax rates, health, education etc could be challenging too ...Richard_Tyndall said:
But tomorrow's challenges will be.... the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
It's not waving it away, it's accepting the result whichever way the chips fall and moving on to something more productive. What point is there rehashing yesterday's battle when there's tomorrow's challenges to unite around instead?Indigo said:
The attempts to handwave away the views of 40%+ of the electorate never cease to amaze me.Stark_Dawning said:No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now. It's just a lot of grief for no other purpose than giving their more 'colourful' colleagues too much airtime. When Remain triumphs I can see everyone keenly moving on to something else.
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And it was all going so well
BBC News
Austria's far-right Freedom Party comes top in first round of presidential election, projections suggest https://t.co/RKVhFljJNX0 -
Wallpaper with some Scott_P-aste ....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Maybe some wallpaper samples too.Luckyguy1983 said:
What's Osborne going to leave in there? An IOU and a Werther's Original wrapper?JackW said:
More than the Labour party left in the treasury according to Liam Byrne .timetrompette said:The penny's dropping.
I'll get my coat .... of paint.0 -
It is the Europhile lairs who stood under a false flag. Knowing they couldn't get elected if they declared their true views. That applies from Cameron in 2005 all the way down to candidates for the 2015 GE.Scott_P said:
I am not sure that is necessarily a desirable outcome. It might be better for all concerned if the closet Kippers were actually honest with their electorate and stopped standing under a false flagMorris_Dancer said:Mr. P, I'm sure that'll help restore harmony to the Conservatives
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@Philip_Thompson
'The idea that a new entrant joining a queue at the back is viewed as a threat rather than the norm shows just how deluded some people are. Of course you join a queue at the back any one can see that, it shouldn't come as unexpected.'
No the only people that were deluded were those that believed in the 'special relationship' crap.
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They have already done that to Dave.Stark_Dawning said:
Quite right. Getting in a frightful huff about Dave's tactics, leaflets, Kinnock, Obama and the rest of it is just demeaning. If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world? The EU and the US would chew them up and spit them out.Scott_P said:If people had been paying attention during the AV referendum, they would know Cameron plays to win.
What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.0 -
For someone you publicly claimed to ignore you sure do bang on about him.Indigo said:
Yes, then there will be a huge squealing of brakes as Scott&Paste realigns himself to his new briefing, Boris is in No10 now, so he isn't a lunatic at all any more, that was just a misunderstanding, he will now be the new messiah, with sunlight radiating through the seat of his well cut suit.shiney2 said:@Scott_p
make sure your parachute is on scott
Last 100Days of Dodgy Dave..0 -
Bollocks. Apart from anything else, Nigel Farage goes off message because he has no access to the message - he's completely separate from the official 'campaign' such as it is, because of their inability to put their differences aside, for which I blame Vote Leave as much as Leave.EU. Hannan never puts a foot wrong, but Gove has fallen into just as many bear traps as Farage. The same can be said, dickhead though he clearly is, of Arron Banks. You deal with these people by bringing them into the fold, not agreeing with your opponents characterisation of them as beyond the pale.Richard_Tyndall said:
But as we are seeing it may well be those UKIP type egos that lose the referendum for Leave. If we had more like Hannan, Carswell and Gove we would have a far better chanceLuckyguy1983 said:
To you. Not to everyone else. This is the point, Hannan, Carswell, and to a certain extent yourself Richard, are content to be in a small 'right' minority. Which is why they've simply sat in their ivory tower being right, eloquent, and accumulating an encyclopaedic knowledge on EU failings, for the past 20 odd years, achieving the square root of f**k all. Hannan should be leader of the Tory party. Why isn't he? If it takes 'UKIP egos' to get something done, then so be it. BOO Tories have done nothing, and now they're buggering up this entire campaign for Leave.Richard_Tyndall said:
A party built around the principles of Hannan and Carswell but without the UKIP egos would be very attractive.Indigo said:
Hopefully Dan Hannan will throw in the Tory towel and form the "Fed Up With The EU But Not A Bunch Of Incompetent Fuckwits Party", most of the sensible Kippers and the Tory right will leave to join it, the remaining selection of fruitcakes and loons will stay in UKIP and go the way of the BNP.kle4 said:Hung parliament in 2020, Labour coalition government as 10 years of Tory rule combined with absolute failure to meet their own targets mean the fear of economic trouble from Labour is lessened and the SNP fear isn't effective enough to counter fatigue of Tory government.
Furthermore, at least Leave.EU and UKIP have some sort of existing marketing activity/agency or in-house people doing it, which is more than Leave.EU appear to have managed.0 -
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.JackW said:
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.Barnesian said:
My predictionIndigo said:
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.Stark_Dawning said:Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.0 -
Leicester 1-0 Swansea
The dream is looking good...0 -
The article did state within 34 years, so the early ones don't really matter, although someone clearly made a mistake since the 1992 result was a loss of 402 seats.justin124 said:This year' Local Govt seats were actually last fought in 2012 when Labour made 823 gains. Losing just 170 of that total would be no disaster. Labour did worse in 1959 - 1960 - 1961 -1982 - 1983 - 1987 - 1992 in Opposition.
Perhaps they mean worst in 34 years in a non-general election year.0 -
Yes: the fact is that Richard and my vision for Britain outside the EU, in a reinvigorated EFTA attracts a lot more wavering Conservatives, and even a fair number of LibDems and Labour-ites.Richard_Tyndall said:
But as we are seeing it may well be those UKIP type egos that lose the referendum for Leave. If we had more like Hannan, Carswell and Gove we would have a far better chance
A great many businesses - perhaps a clear majority- prefer EEA to EU. But they daren't nail their colours to Out, because they are worried that we'll get something that looks like "Albania".
But the thing about EFTA/EEA, above all, is that it is the right thing for Britain and the right thing for Europe. It brings the benefits of the single market (and there are many), with virtually none of the costs. It minimises disruption, maximises the freedom of individuals, reduces cost, and increases sovereignty.
Unlike CO, EFTA/EEA could well have led to the non-Eurozone members of the EU (and even - potentially - a few of the Eurozone members in time) peeling off. It would have been Europe, without the commisionars, without the CAP, and with the cost.
And now we're not going to get it.
And while it's easy to blame David Cameron, I despise those on our side who've been in it for their careers over their country. (Boris Johnson, I'm looking at you.)
I hope the Conservative Party comes to its senses and realises that EFTA/EEA is the way forward. It'll never satisfy Indigo or Luckyguy; but I believe it could - just as it has in Norway and Switzerland - attract the overwhelming support of the population.0 -
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!Richard_Nabavi said:Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
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Not just the AV referendum- SINDYRef even had an Obama intervention- which Salmond skilfully brushed aside - unlike the spectacular screw up from LEAVE...Scott_P said:If people had been paying attention during the AV referendum, they would know Cameron plays to win.
What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.0 -
They were 10% ahead in the polls, so no great surprise. (See:http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Umfrage-FPOe-auf-dem-Weg-zur-Volkspartei;art385,2200421)Plato_Says said:And it was all going so well
BBC News
Austria's far-right Freedom Party comes top in first round of presidential election, projections suggest https://t.co/RKVhFljJNX0 -
Are they actually far right, or is this just the BBC?rcs1000 said:
They were 10% ahead in the polls, so no great surprise. (See:http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Umfrage-FPOe-auf-dem-Weg-zur-Volkspartei;art385,2200421)Plato_Says said:And it was all going so well
BBC News
Austria's far-right Freedom Party comes top in first round of presidential election, projections suggest https://t.co/RKVhFljJNX0 -
I think you are confusing two different things: whether something like the EEA deal would have been better than being in the EU if things had evolved down that route, and whether switching from where we are now to an EEA-style deal would be a good idea. I suspect there wouldn't be much support for the latter, even if the former, in some hypothetical parallel universe, might have suited us better.rcs1000 said:I hope the Conservative Party comes to its senses and realises that EFTA/EEA is the way forward. It'll never satisfy Indigo or Luckyguy; but I believe it could - just as it has in Norway and Switzerland - attract the overwhelming support of the population.
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I ask again - in whose mind is this a screw-up? It could be but with no polling it merely an assumption.CarlottaVance said:
Not just the AV referendum- SINDYRef even had an Obama intervention- which Salmond skilfully brushed aside - unlike the spectacular screw up from LEAVE...Scott_P said:If people had been paying attention during the AV referendum, they would know Cameron plays to win.
What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.0 -
Of course, Austria previously had Kurt Waldheim as President. So, it's not clear that even if the Freedom Party won in the second round (which they probably won't) that they'd manage to get a more right wing leader.RobD said:
Are they actually far right, or is this just the BBC?rcs1000 said:
They were 10% ahead in the polls, so no great surprise. (See:http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Umfrage-FPOe-auf-dem-Weg-zur-Volkspartei;art385,2200421)Plato_Says said:And it was all going so well
BBC News
Austria's far-right Freedom Party comes top in first round of presidential election, projections suggest https://t.co/RKVhFljJNX
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My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.Norm said:
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!Richard_Nabavi said:Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
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"We’re starting to get into the realms of political novels now. "
Well they could regurgitate the thought of putting Camerons Conservatives on the ballot paper as they did in a previous by election.
As we are told he is more popular than the conservative party.
But in Parliament if he has 40 Conservative MPs against , I am sure on important votes back channels can be arranged with the same number of like minded Labour MPs to get legislsation through.
To be honest voters however much they complain like the Bill Clinton, Anthony Blair, David Cameron look, and the third way outlook on domestic policies.
I thought this might change after 2008, but not it seems in the UK at GE.0 -
The fact the LEAVE have kept it in the news cycle reminding everyone of Obama's view when they should have shut it down. HMS Anglosphere is holed below the waterline and going down....Norm said:
I ask again - in whose mind is this a screw-up? It could be but with no polling it merely an assumption.CarlottaVance said:
Not just the AV referendum- SINDYRef even had an Obama intervention- which Salmond skilfully brushed aside - unlike the spectacular screw up from LEAVE...Scott_P said:If people had been paying attention during the AV referendum, they would know Cameron plays to win.
What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.0 -
Pennsylvania - YouGov/CBS
Trump 49 .. Cruz 26 .. Kasich 22
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 43
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-party-front-runners-lead-in-pennsylvania-indiana/0 -
'I didn’t really deserve them’: Humble D-day hero picks up war medals 72 years after refusing them
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/7101422/I-didnt-really-deserve-them-Humble-D-day-hero-picks-up-war-medals-72-years-after-refusing-them.html0 -
@Scott_P"
'When is "back of the queue" a diss?
WTF has gotten (sic) into these people?
Do you never join the back of a queue? Must make you really popular in Sainsbury's'
This is slightly different from Sainsbury's ,it's about the crap that's been spouted to us for years, about the so called 'special relationship' UK / USA but at least we now know that it is only applicable if UK voters vote the way the US president wants.
I guess the next time a US President comes asking for diplomatic / military support we can tell them where the line / queue starts.
You really don't find it a bit odd that should the UK vote to leave the UK we would join the queue behind Iran,Yemen, North Korea et al to get a trade deal with the US, although the US allegedly has a 'special relationship' with the UK.
0 -
Indiana - YouGov/CBS
Trump 40 .. Cruz 35 .. Kasich 20
Clinton 49 .. Sanders 44
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-party-front-runners-lead-in-pennsylvania-indiana/0 -
They are quite right wing.RobD said:
Are they actually far right, or is this just the BBC?rcs1000 said:
They were 10% ahead in the polls, so no great surprise. (See:http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Umfrage-FPOe-auf-dem-Weg-zur-Volkspartei;art385,2200421)Plato_Says said:And it was all going so well
BBC News
Austria's far-right Freedom Party comes top in first round of presidential election, projections suggest https://t.co/RKVhFljJNX
But, my Austrian friend (well, he's Austrian and he works in equities at Morgan Stanley) tells me there are three candidates all within 2 or 3% of each other in the low 20s: Hofer of the FPO, Griss (independent) and Van der Bellen of the Greens. Apparently, the FPO was second in 2010 behind a "sort of independent".0 -
How do you know it won't satisfy me?rcs1000 said:
I hope the Conservative Party comes to its senses and realises that EFTA/EEA is the way forward. It'll never satisfy Indigo or Luckyguy; but I believe it could - just as it has in Norway and Switzerland - attract the overwhelming support of the population.
I'm undecided about which option is my preference post-Leave, because I don't feel I know enough about the options. I'm happy with full Indy as a baseline, because I think financial success relies more upon product and positioning of that product than it does on relatively small tariffs.
My issue is with Vote Leavers who have felt the need to offer a detailed prospectus when there was no need to do so. It was inevitable it would give Remainers something to attack (check) and that it would cause arguments within Leave (check). It sounds like that should be your issue too.
0 -
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.Richard_Nabavi said:
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.Norm said:
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!Richard_Nabavi said:Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
0 -
Interesting that Cameron is messing up majority government.0
-
But it's a no win situation:Luckyguy1983 said:
How do you know it won't satisfy me?rcs1000 said:
I hope the Conservative Party comes to its senses and realises that EFTA/EEA is the way forward. It'll never satisfy Indigo or Luckyguy; but I believe it could - just as it has in Norway and Switzerland - attract the overwhelming support of the population.
I'm undecided about which option is my preference post-Leave, because I don't feel I know enough about the options. I'm happy with full Indy as a baseline, because I think financial success relies more upon product and positioning of that product than it does on relatively small tariffs.
My issue is with Vote Leavers who have felt the need to offer a detailed prospectus when there was no need to do so. It was inevitable it would give Remainers something to attack (check) and that it would cause arguments within Leave (check). It sounds like that should be your issue too.
No prospectus means that you can be constantly characterised as flip-flopping, and different people give contradictory answers.
Having a prospectus means losing either the support of business (CO), or a chunk of WWC enthusiasm (EFTA/EEA).0 -
Pennsylvania - Marist/NBC/WSJ
Trump 45 .. Cruz 27 .. Kasich 24
Clinton 55 .. Sanders 40
Clinton 54 .. Trump 39
Clinton 52 .. Cruz 41
Clinton 45 .. Kasich 48
Sanders 57 .. Trump 37
Sanders 58 .. Cruz 36
Sanders 50 .. Kasich 44
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-clinton-hold-strong-leads-pennsylvania-new-poll-shows-n5606060 -
In the short term that might well be the case with an immediate two fingered salute. But in the privacy of the booth....?Richard_Nabavi said:
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.Norm said:
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!Richard_Nabavi said:Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
0 -
Standing for election following service as Secretary General of the far right UN? Shurly shome mishtake.....rcs1000 said:
Of course, Austria previously had Kurt Waldheim as President. So, it's not clear that even if the Freedom Party won in the second round (which they probably won't) that they'd manage to get a more right wing leader.RobD said:
Are they actually far right, or is this just the BBC?rcs1000 said:
They were 10% ahead in the polls, so no great surprise. (See:http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Umfrage-FPOe-auf-dem-Weg-zur-Volkspartei;art385,2200421)Plato_Says said:And it was all going so well
BBC News
Austria's far-right Freedom Party comes top in first round of presidential election, projections suggest https://t.co/RKVhFljJNX0 -
@Luckyguy
"My issue is with Vote Leavers who have felt the need to offer a detailed prospectus when there was no need to do so. It was inevitable it would give Remainers something to attack (check) and that it would cause arguments within Leave (check). It sounds like that should be your issue too. "
Good points.
I'm with Hannan's plan.
In summary :Take back control by ceasing to unilaterally implement 'new' EU diktats. Play the rest to our best advantage as the situation warrants.
Nobody is going to be nasty to us with our 60Bn trade deficit..
You owe the bank £1k : its your problem; Owe them £60,000,000,000pa and its theirs..
0 -
Pathetic odds for a no hoper with Jezza as likely to PM as Donald Trump is to be President ..... of Mexico !!Barnesian said:
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.JackW said:
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.Barnesian said:
My predictionIndigo said:
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.Stark_Dawning said:Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.0 -
No, if we lose this, the reason will be because Remain got twice as much funding, at the expense of the taxpayer, in direct contravention of the views of the Electoral Commission.Scott_P said:
Especially since their excuse for losing (which they are already running) is "a big boy (Cameron) did it, and ran away"Stark_Dawning said:If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world?
0 -
Snapchat's face swap is creepy!
Keeping these skills in the UK is a strategic imperative https://t.co/Pbr7E70ClQ0 -
The pretence of the special relationship should have died with the Suez crisis.john_zims said:
You really don't find it a bit odd that should the UK vote to leave the UK we would join the queue behind Iran,Yemen, North Korea et al to get a trade deal with the US, although the US allegedly has a 'special relationship' with the UK.
As Dead Acheson said in the 60s, "Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role—that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a 'Special Relationship' with the United States, a role based on being the head of a 'Commonwealth' which has no political structure, or unity, or strength and enjoys a fragile and precarious economic relationship—this role is about played out."0 -
There was a model answer on here yesterday.rcs1000 said:
But it's a no win situation:Luckyguy1983 said:
How do you know it won't satisfy me?rcs1000 said:
I hope the Conservative Party comes to its senses and realises that EFTA/EEA is the way forward. It'll never satisfy Indigo or Luckyguy; but I believe it could - just as it has in Norway and Switzerland - attract the overwhelming support of the population.
I'm undecided about which option is my preference post-Leave, because I don't feel I know enough about the options. I'm happy with full Indy as a baseline, because I think financial success relies more upon product and positioning of that product than it does on relatively small tariffs.
My issue is with Vote Leavers who have felt the need to offer a detailed prospectus when there was no need to do so. It was inevitable it would give Remainers something to attack (check) and that it would cause arguments within Leave (check). It sounds like that should be your issue too.
No prospectus means that you can be constantly characterised as flip-flopping, and different people give contradictory answers.
Having a prospectus means losing either the support of business (CO), or a chunk of WWC enthusiasm (EFTA/EEA).
Leave could have outlined the three options, said they had looked at all of them in some detail, and would be equally happy with all of them, and much as they would like to express a preference they were not part of that decision as it was up to the government of the day to decide which was the most applicable. Thereby dropping the problem straight back on Cameron's lap.0 -
Remind me when, exactly, Cameron spent taxpayer funds on just one side of the AV referendum. I am looking for my official government recommendation leaflet on the matter but I can not find it.Stark_Dawning said:
Quite right. Getting in a frightful huff about Dave's tactics, leaflets, Kinnock, Obama and the rest of it is just demeaning. If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world? The EU and the US would chew them up and spit them out.Scott_P said:If people had been paying attention during the AV referendum, they would know Cameron plays to win.
What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.0 -
Dude: I'm on your side, but you're deluded. £7m is neither here nor there.Layne said:
No, if we lose this, the reason will be because Remain got twice as much funding, at the expense of the taxpayer, in direct contravention of the views of the Electoral Commission.Scott_P said:
Especially since their excuse for losing (which they are already running) is "a big boy (Cameron) did it, and ran away"Stark_Dawning said:If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world?
We lost this because:
1. We don't have the support of the business community
2. They have managed to wheel out a whole host of people to tell us how awful it will be outside
3. Because we don't have a coherent message
And a host of other reasons (like Boris). Frankly, the £7m probably played in our favour because we got some news cycles out of it.0 -
Do I hear the sound of towels whistling through the air ?rcs1000 said:
Dude: I'm on your side, but you're deluded. £7m is neither here nor there.Layne said:
No, if we lose this, the reason will be because Remain got twice as much funding, at the expense of the taxpayer, in direct contravention of the views of the Electoral Commission.Scott_P said:
Especially since their excuse for losing (which they are already running) is "a big boy (Cameron) did it, and ran away"Stark_Dawning said:If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world?
We lost this because:
1. We don't have the support of the business community
2. They have managed to wheel out a whole host of people to tell us how awful it will be outside
3. Because we don't have a coherent message
And a host of other reasons (like Boris). Frankly, the £7m probably played in our favour because we got some news cycles out of it.0 -
The government will certainly go for EEA-EFTA in the event of a Leave vote. The Leave campaign won't get a say in the matter.rcs1000 said:
Yes: the fact is that Richard and my vision for Britain outside the EU, in a reinvigorated EFTA attracts a lot more wavering Conservatives, and even a fair number of LibDems and Labour-ites.Richard_Tyndall said:
But as we are seeing it may well be those UKIP type egos that lose the referendum for Leave. If we had more like Hannan, Carswell and Gove we would have a far better chance
A great many businesses - perhaps a clear majority- prefer EEA to EU. But they daren't nail their colours to Out, because they are worried that we'll get something that looks like "Albania".
But the thing about EFTA/EEA, above all, is that it is the right thing for Britain and the right thing for Europe. It brings the benefits of the single market (and there are many), with virtually none of the costs. It minimises disruption, maximises the freedom of individuals, reduces cost, and increases sovereignty.
Unlike CO, EFTA/EEA could well have led to the non-Eurozone members of the EU (and even - potentially - a few of the Eurozone members in time) peeling off. It would have been Europe, without the commisionars, without the CAP, and with the cost.
And now we're not going to get it.
And while it's easy to blame David Cameron, I despise those on our side who've been in it for their careers over their country. (Boris Johnson, I'm looking at you.)
I hope the Conservative Party comes to its senses and realises that EFTA/EEA is the way forward. It'll never satisfy Indigo or Luckyguy; but I believe it could - just as it has in Norway and Switzerland - attract the overwhelming support of the population.0 -
What does CO stand for? As for business, it is split on the matter. That is why the British Chambers of Commerce are neutral.0
-
Any day now we will get an infamous cartoon of Dave servicing Obama. Guido fawkes order order - a possible provider?Plato_Says said:Yup, but grinning whilst Obama disses us was the final straw.
Cameron's conduct since this started has plumbed new depths every week. Just when I think it can't get worse - it does. I've given up on him.Norm said:I suspect what annoys eurosceptic Tories most is the way Cameron has cavorted with the parties natural enemies in order to secure his "triumph". That picture with Pantsdown and the EU troughing Kinnock will be difficult to forget.
NSFLab
https://sites.google.com/site/markandrich/suck.JPG
0 -
You can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 i.e. bet that he won't be next PM and get a tax free 12% return if he isn't.JackW said:
Pathetic odds for a no hoper with Jezza as likely to PM as Donald Trump is to be President ..... of Mexico !!Barnesian said:
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.JackW said:
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.Barnesian said:
My predictionIndigo said:
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.Stark_Dawning said:Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.
Edit: There's £6 available so if you lay that you'll make a certain 69p.0 -
I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?0 -
Dominic Raab doing a sterling job on BBC Newsat 5pm all about the USA and trade deals. He actually worked at the FO and does understand international deals. Add him to those that LEAVE need to make more use of.0
-
I don't see any need to play any kind of special world role. Being self-governing seems just fine to me.williamglenn said:
The pretence of the special relationship should have died with the Suez crisis.john_zims said:
You really don't find it a bit odd that should the UK vote to leave the UK we would join the queue behind Iran,Yemen, North Korea et al to get a trade deal with the US, although the US allegedly has a 'special relationship' with the UK.
As Dead Acheson said in the 60s, "Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role—that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a 'Special Relationship' with the United States, a role based on being the head of a 'Commonwealth' which has no political structure, or unity, or strength and enjoys a fragile and precarious economic relationship—this role is about played out."0 -
CO is Completely Out.Layne said:What does CO stand for? As for business, it is split on the matter. That is why the British Chambers of Commerce are neutral.
Business is not split on the matter. Find me one business that prefers us to have a relationship with the EU like that which Canada has with the EU.
Most businesses have the following preferences:
EEA > EU > CO
Some are:
EU > EEA > CO
Almost none are:
CO > EEA > EU
While CO is on the table, most businesses won't raise their heads above the parapit, for fear of ending up somewhere they don't want to be.0 -
Taken to its logical extreme that scenario would mean that Brussels would be dismantled and the EEA would become the de facto German Economic Area with everyone following diktats directly from Berlin.rcs1000 said:Unlike CO, EFTA/EEA could well have led to the non-Eurozone members of the EU (and even - potentially - a few of the Eurozone members in time) peeling off. It would have been Europe, without the commisionars, without the CAP, and with the cost.
EFTA/EEA only works in its present form because it consists of the behemoth of the EU plus a few hangers on.0 -
Alanbrooke said:
I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?
Let's be serious.
Dodgy Dave let him win @ golf.
Now its payback.0 -
The Lib Dems would have brought down the Govt if they did that. The LEAVE Conservatives chose not to do that. Just too loyal to the party for their own good.Layne said:
Remind me when, exactly, Cameron spent taxpayer funds on just one side of the AV referendum. I am looking for my official government recommendation leaflet on the matter but I can not find it.Stark_Dawning said:
Quite right. Getting in a frightful huff about Dave's tactics, leaflets, Kinnock, Obama and the rest of it is just demeaning. If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world? The EU and the US would chew them up and spit them out.Scott_P said:If people had been paying attention during the AV referendum, they would know Cameron plays to win.
What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.
0 -
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.CarlottaVance said:
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.Richard_Nabavi said:
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.Norm said:
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!Richard_Nabavi said:Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
0 -
well the serious bit is Obama slated Dave for taking his eye off the ball over Libya.shiney2 said:Alanbrooke said:I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?
Let's be serious.
Dodgy Dave let him win @ golf.
Now its payback.
Now Obama's done him a favour and we all expect a quid pro quo.
Obama does the deed we announce were off to Libya.0 -
Jackw.JackW said:
Pathetic odds for a no hoper with Jezza as likely to PM as Donald Trump is to be President ..... of Mexico !!Barnesian said:
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.JackW said:
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.Barnesian said:
My predictionIndigo said:
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.Stark_Dawning said:Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.
I would rather take a punt on John McDonnell.
The British public like a sharp suit.
He comes over well in interviews.
Also he will have that ruthless streak to obtain power , if the chance comes.
Unlike the nice but ineffectual Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
By 'business' we mean multinational corporations?
0 -
The problem with Cameron's victory at all cost approach is at some point the bill will turn up.Sean_F said:
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.CarlottaVance said:
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.Richard_Nabavi said:
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.Norm said:
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!Richard_Nabavi said:Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
0 -
Oh please ....Layne said:
No, if we lose this, the reason will be because Remain got twice as much funding, at the expense of the taxpayer, in direct contravention of the views of the Electoral Commission.Scott_P said:
Especially since their excuse for losing (which they are already running) is "a big boy (Cameron) did it, and ran away"Stark_Dawning said:If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world?
When LEAVE lose it wont be because two months before the vote the postman delivered a crushingly dull booklet almost directly into the nations recycling bins but essentially because LEAVE failed miserably to convince a broadly receptive and skeptical public that LEAVE had the faintest idea what post BREXIT would mean or counter Project Apocalypse in any meaningful way.
It almost a complete equation for lost opportunity.0 -
Probably some will be already there.Alanbrooke said:I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?0 -
I'm now finally all green on the Republican nomination. I don't think I've ever been so roughed up before in a political market. I'm still with Trump in other markets, and I may smash up the simple nominee price again. It's been a roller-coaster so far though.0
-
Field Marshal Johnson and Admiral Gove will be first to be dispatched.Alanbrooke said:I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
0 -
Pennsylvania is all about the Trump supporters voting for the "right" delegates.JackW said:Pennsylvania - Marist/NBC/WSJ
Trump 45 .. Cruz 27 .. Kasich 24
Clinton 55 .. Sanders 40
Clinton 54 .. Trump 39
Clinton 52 .. Cruz 41
Clinton 45 .. Kasich 48
Sanders 57 .. Trump 37
Sanders 58 .. Cruz 36
Sanders 50 .. Kasich 44
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-clinton-hold-strong-leads-pennsylvania-new-poll-shows-n5606060 -
I agree he was excellent with Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics show.TCPoliticalBetting said:Dominic Raab doing a sterling job on BBC Newsat 5pm all about the USA and trade deals. He actually worked at the FO and does understand international deals. Add him to those that LEAVE need to make more use of.
He needs to be up front, he could be the star of leave.0 -
I'll tell Mrs JackW .... "get you're glad rags on gal, we're off to MacDonald's to share a burger .... and there'll be change !!"Barnesian said:
You can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 i.e. bet that he won't be next PM and get a tax free 12% return if he isn't.JackW said:
Pathetic odds for a no hoper with Jezza as likely to PM as Donald Trump is to be President ..... of Mexico !!Barnesian said:
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.JackW said:
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.Barnesian said:
My predictionIndigo said:
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.Stark_Dawning said:Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.
Edit: There's £6 available so if you lay that you'll make a certain 69p.
I know how to show the wife a good time ....0 -
of course, but not in an official capacity, Hammond is lining us up for a bigger deploymentYorkcity said:
Probably some will be already there.Alanbrooke said:I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?0 -
No. It is the price for Cameron's stupid intervention in Libya back in 2011.Alanbrooke said:I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?0 -
harsh but fair Jack.JackW said:
Oh please ....Layne said:
No, if we lose this, the reason will be because Remain got twice as much funding, at the expense of the taxpayer, in direct contravention of the views of the Electoral Commission.Scott_P said:
Especially since their excuse for losing (which they are already running) is "a big boy (Cameron) did it, and ran away"Stark_Dawning said:If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world?
When LEAVE lose it wont be because two months before the vote the postman delivered a crushingly dull booklet almost directly into the nations recycling bins but essentially because LEAVE failed miserably to convince a broadly receptive and skeptical public that LEAVE had the faintest idea what post BREXIT would mean or counter Project Apocalypse in any meaningful way.
It almost a complete equation for lost opportunity.0 -
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.Sean_F said:
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.CarlottaVance said:
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.Richard_Nabavi said:
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.Norm said:
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!Richard_Nabavi said:Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
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Very true well they do not need parliamentary approval.Alanbrooke said:
of course, but not in an official capacity, Hammond is lining us up for a bigger deploymentYorkcity said:
Probably some will be already there.Alanbrooke said:I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?
But will need to prepare public opinion.0 -
Ah yes Mr L, but without that all those crypto jihadists wouldn't have had such exciting career prospects. Cameron creates jobs overseas as well.HurstLlama said:
No. It is the price for Cameron's stupid intervention in Libya back in 2011.Alanbrooke said:I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?0 -
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?CarlottaVance said:
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.Sean_F said:
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.CarlottaVance said:
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.Richard_Nabavi said:
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.Norm said:
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!Richard_Nabavi said:Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
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McDonnell might be the "sharp suit" but he's cut from the same cloth as Jezza.Yorkcity said:
Jackw.JackW said:
Pathetic odds for a no hoper with Jezza as likely to PM as Donald Trump is to be President ..... of Mexico !!Barnesian said:
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.JackW said:
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.Barnesian said:
My predictionIndigo said:
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.Stark_Dawning said:Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.
I would rather take a punt on John McDonnell.
The British public like a sharp suit.
He comes over well in interviews.
Also he will have that ruthless streak to obtain power , if the chance comes.
Unlike the nice but ineffectual Jeremy Corbyn.
If Jezza is Aston Villa then McDonnell is Newcastle Utd - Neither vying for the honours.
Edit - Sorry for the relegation analogy given your handle !!0 -
We need to perhaps distinguish between private and public opinions of executives here. Here again is the YouGov poll from the FT from the other day showing a relatively even split of opinion among the 600-odd executives polled: 49 remain 42 leavechestnut said:By 'business' we mean multinational corporations?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/324c86ca-0705-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html#axzz4629s5rDr0
