We need to perhaps distinguish between private and public opinions of executives here. Here again is the YouGov poll from the FT from the other day showing a relatively even split of opinion among the 600-odd executives polled: 49 remain 42 leave
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?
Probably some will be already there.
Libya won't become what we want it to be. We really do have to man up and kick the shit out of people who are entirely innocent. Clearly that's not a good thing, but it's what we do.
The people that we don't massacre in Libya will be well placed to form a nice new shiny nation.
Excellent, then we wont be at the back of the queue any more.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
I am the epitome of the digital entrepreneur and small business person. I agree there is a lot of support for leaving the EU.
But that is not the same as support for leaving the EEA. In my fund management business, going to EEA would mean... absolutely no negative consequences whatsoever. Going CO, would almost certainly mean we'd need to open an EU office to sell product out of, or using a local agent who took a third of our revenues.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Not really.
The next 5 years is crunch time for the SNP. They won't call another referendum they can't win, and people are already starting to question the thing they are doing, or not doing.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Lol, I was rather under the impression it was HMS Conservative Party .
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.
My prediction
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.
Pathetic odds for a no hoper with Jezza as likely to PM as Donald Trump is to be President ..... of Mexico !!
Jackw. I would rather take a punt on John McDonnell. The British public like a sharp suit. He comes over well in interviews. Also he will have that ruthless streak to obtain power , if the chance comes. Unlike the nice but ineffectual Jeremy Corbyn.
McDonnell might be the "sharp suit" but he's cut from the same cloth as Jezza.
If Jezza is Aston Villa then McDonnell is Newcastle Utd - Neither vying for the honours.
Edit - Sorry for the relegation analogy given your handle !!
Yes Jack non league status was confirmed on my City yesterday. It has never really been great at football or rugby. Does have a lovely racecourse . It is a lovely city to live in, and luckily for me , I live on a hill , so no flooding problems.
Yes, then there will be a huge squealing of brakes as Scott&Paste realigns himself to his new briefing, Boris is in No10 now, so he isn't a lunatic at all any more, that was just a misunderstanding, he will now be the new messiah, with sunlight radiating through the seat of his well cut suit.
For someone you publicly claimed to ignore you sure do bang on about him.
Is it possible to avoid the pap he posts ad infinitum
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Lol, I was rather under the impression it was HMS Conservative Party .
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
Those on here supporting IN for no other reason than Cameron does are going to be very sheepish at some stage in the next 6 months. Even if IN wins he is fatally discredited.
That will be scant comfort to me, I want us to leave the EU, but careful what you wish for toadies. Remember the pics of Maggie crying in the back of the car?
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
Th economic lies from the establishment lost the referendum, they managed to scare enough old duffers that their pensions would disappear. Almost forgot the unions and ship workers who were told to vote No to save their jobs, not so Better Together now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
Th economic lies from the establishment lost the referendum, they managed to scare enough old duffers that their pensions would disappear. Almost forgot the unions and ship workers who were told to vote No to save their jobs, not so Better Together now the chickens are coming home to roost.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Not really.
The next 5 years is crunch time for the SNP. They won't call another referendum they can't win, and people are already starting to question the thing they are doing, or not doing.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Lol, I was rather under the impression it was HMS Conservative Party .
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
Those on here supporting IN for no other reason than Cameron does are going to be very sheepish at some stage in the next 6 months. Even if IN wins he is fatally discredited.
Are Labour supporters really going to back a Cameron fronted campaign? I think not.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
Sturgeon is too scared to do anything that might upset them, so she will try not to do anything.
Except the things she is already doing have already upset them.
This, on Named Persons, is written by a supporter, and printed in the Nat onal...
In this instance, when considering Named Person, I’m looking to our Nordic neighbours. Instead of a beacon of what could be, I’m seeing something I desperately don’t want. Scotland has to think hard about the implications of bringing the government into our family lives. And what could happen if that power is misused.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Not really.
The next 5 years is crunch time for the SNP. They won't call another referendum they can't win, and people are already starting to question the thing they are doing, or not doing.
LOL, yes that will be why they are over 50% in the polls. We will see who is asked the questions in a few days.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
Th economic lies from the establishment lost the referendum, they managed to scare enough old duffers that their pensions would disappear. Almost forgot the unions and ship workers who were told to vote No to save their jobs, not so Better Together now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.
My prediction
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.
Pathetic odds for a no hoper with Jezza as likely to PM as Donald Trump is to be President ..... of Mexico !!
Jackw. I would rather take a punt on John McDonnell. The British public like a sharp suit. He comes over well in interviews. Also he will have that ruthless streak to obtain power , if the chance comes. Unlike the nice but ineffectual Jeremy Corbyn.
McDonnell might be the "sharp suit" but he's cut from the same cloth as Jezza.
If Jezza is Aston Villa then McDonnell is Newcastle Utd - Neither vying for the honours.
Edit - Sorry for the relegation analogy given your handle !!
Yes Jack non league status was confirmed on my City yesterday. It has never really been great at football or rugby. Does have a lovely racecourse . It is a lovely city to live in, and luckily for me , I live on a hill , so no flooding problems.
I've visited York many times over the decades but not recently. Always enjoyed the city - A jewel in England's crown.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Not really.
The next 5 years is crunch time for the SNP. They won't call another referendum they can't win, and people are already starting to question the thing they are doing, or not doing.
They'll be different people from the same duffers & serial failures that have been questioning the thing they've been doing for the last 9 years?
McTernan's taken over from Iain Martin as one of your go-to-guys, hasn't he?
Wow Austrian FPO have just had a mammoth first round vote.
Greetings from Budapest. What percentage? More of the old order collapsing in Europe. Interesting going round the Hungarian parliament yesterday. They still have a place for members to leave their long cigars outside the chamber if they wish! If I get time next week I'll have more on that address. Didn't realise that exaro news company sparta are linked to 788 790 Finchley Road. Make of that what you will.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Lol, I was rather under the impression it was HMS Conservative Party .
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
But where, Mr. Brooke, but where? UKIP once looked a hopeful resting resting place but now seems to have blown that. The Lib Dems are but a deranged Labour Light. I suspect that a majority of those Conservative supporters who have become disgusted by Cameron will simply drift into the can't be arsed to vote group.
Speaking personally, I am thinking of joining the Conservative Party simply so that I can do my bit to keep that incompetant areshole Osborne away from the the leadership.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
Like they did after gay marriage?
Then voted in a Conservative majority government?
you can pile on the straws but at some stage the camel's back breaks.
and since we are now effectively in a 2 party system the conservatives are sitting at circa 37% and not the 40+% of the 80s and 90s.
So where have those Tory voters gone ? And how many more will they need to to lose to become minority - 1% ?
Remembering of course that Dave will be gone next time.
Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.
Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.
My prediction
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.
Jezza as PM - Absolute comedy gold. A 24 carat nugget of titterness and chuckledom worthy of equality with MikeK's 120 UKIP MPs forecast for last May.
If you are so sure, you can lay Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 8.6 on Betfair. It implies about a 12% chance. Similar to Osborne's chances as next Tory leader.
Pathetic odds for a no hoper with Jezza as likely to PM as Donald Trump is to be President ..... of Mexico !!
Jackw. I would rather take a punt on John McDonnell. The British public like a sharp suit. He comes over well in interviews. Also he will have that ruthless streak to obtain power , if the chance comes. Unlike the nice but ineffectual Jeremy Corbyn.
McDonnell might be the "sharp suit" but he's cut from the same cloth as Jezza.
If Jezza is Aston Villa then McDonnell is Newcastle Utd - Neither vying for the honours.
Edit - Sorry for the relegation analogy given your handle !!
Yes Jack non league status was confirmed on my City yesterday. It has never really been great at football or rugby. Does have a lovely racecourse . It is a lovely city to live in, and luckily for me , I live on a hill , so no flooding problems.
Probably the most beautiful city in England. Who needs football anyway?
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Making the economic case was a necessary, but not sufficient reason for independence. The SNP did well on the other matters, but fell at the first fence.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Not really.
The next 5 years is crunch time for the SNP. They won't call another referendum they can't win, and people are already starting to question the thing they are doing, or not doing.
The SNP are heading for a landslide on May 5 th.
Soon as the oil price heads back over $100, bumpf.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Lol, I was rather under the impression it was HMS Conservative Party .
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
But where, Mr. Brooke, but where? UKIP once looked a hopeful resting resting place but now seems to have blown that. The Lib Dems are but a deranged Labour Light. I suspect that a majority of those Conservative supporters who have become disgusted by Cameron will simply drift into the can't be arsed to vote group.
Speaking personally, I am thinking of joining the Conservative Party simply so that I can do my bit to keep that incompetant areshole Osborne away from the the leadership.
The bits have yet to settle Mr L.
By not voting the Cons task gets harder let alone voting for other parties,
Post EUref as I say the bill has yet to be presented to Cameron and then the fun starts.
Mr. Llama, could be wrong but I think it's been said here before that you need to have been a member for X months to vote in leadership contests. Of course, the leadership vote might be some way off, but you may wish to find out for sure.
Wow Austrian FPO have just had a mammoth first round vote.
Greetings from Budapest. What percentage? More of the old order collapsing in Europe. Interesting going round the Hungarian parliament yesterday. They still have a place for members to leave their long cigars outside the chamber if they wish! If I get time next week I'll have more on that address. Didn't realise that exaro news company sparta are linked to 788 790 Finchley Road. Make of that what you will.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
Th economic lies from the establishment lost the referendum, they managed to scare enough old duffers that their pensions would disappear. Almost forgot the unions and ship workers who were told to vote No to save their jobs, not so Better Together now the chickens are coming home to roost.
This year' Local Govt seats were actually last fought in 2012 when Labour made 823 gains. Losing just 170 of that total would be no disaster. Labour did worse in 1959 - 1960 - 1961 -1982 - 1983 - 1987 - 1992 in Opposition.
The article did state within 34 years, so the early ones don't really matter, although someone clearly made a mistake since the 1992 result was a loss of 402 seats.
Perhaps they mean worst in 34 years in a non-general election year.
The fact that the article failed to mention them does not mean that the earlier years'don't really matter'. It is simply a case that Local Govt was reorganised in the early 1970s and the former 3 year cycle became the 4 year cycle we still have today. The fact is that Labour made gains in 1956 , 1957 & 1958 which were at least partially reversed in 1959,1960 & 1961. Poor results in the latter two years did not prevent Labour winning the 1964 election.
"Are Labour supporters really going to back a Cameron fronted campaign? I think not" TCP
My brother is and all my friends are. Everyone I know who are Labour Supporter are in the remain camp. Even at work last week the only leave , were Conservative Supporters and me. I know its only anedoctal and York City centric but when my father who reads the Daily Mail everyday was wavering , I thought this game is up. My brother got him wavering about workers rights and permanent conservative rule. So Corbyn does have an influence, when they know you are out of power for a long time.
Sturgeon is too scared to do anything that might upset them, so she will try not to do anything.
Except the things she is already doing have already upset them.
This, on Named Persons, is written by a supporter, and printed in the Nat onal...
In this instance, when considering Named Person, I’m looking to our Nordic neighbours. Instead of a beacon of what could be, I’m seeing something I desperately don’t want. Scotland has to think hard about the implications of bringing the government into our family lives. And what could happen if that power is misused.
One person is not them having trouble. Most people realise that a simple policy where a child can get help if they really need help is not an issue but a great idea.
The problem will not be that LEAVE lose, it'll be that REMAIN and Cameron in particular have made it a grudge match by playing dirty. They should have expected no less
Only if you view not rolling over as dirty.
The idea that a new entrant joining a queue at the back is viewed as a threat rather than the norm shows just how deluded some people are. Of course you join a queue at the back any one can see that, it shouldn't come as unexpected.
You keep repeating that, it doesn't make it right. In the real world you move people that are important to you to the front of the queue. If you are a busy executive with limited slots in your diary, you make damn sure to fill those slots with your most important investors and customers, not the guy that spends a couple of grand a month. It was most definitely a slight, it say you are not important enough for any sort of special treatment, you are a bit player that can take their place at the back of the queue with the other tin pot banana republics.
"First class passengers board first".
No it says that we are a less valued customer than their existing priority which is TTIP. that a market of 444 million customers is less valued than 64 million. That a half negotiated deal that has been getting negotiated for years already is higher priority than one that hasn't started negotiations yet.
Again that should come as a shock to the square root of zero people.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Not really.
The next 5 years is crunch time for the SNP. They won't call another referendum they can't win, and people are already starting to question the thing they are doing, or not doing.
They'll be different people from the same duffers & serial failures that have been questioning the thing they've been doing for the last 9 years?
McTernan's taken over from Iain Martin as one of your go-to-guys, hasn't he?
It is hard to find someone having a better referendum campaign than Dominic Raab. The man is a hidden gem. Why have the Tories not put him in a better ministerial role before now? He shows all the knowledge and substance that people like Sajid Javid have lacked.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Making the economic case was a necessary, but not sufficient reason for independence. The SNP did well on the other matters, but fell at the first fence.
I see Hammond is now saying we may have to send troops to Libya.
Is the price for Obama's speech for Dave ?
Probably some will be already there.
Libya won't become what we want it to be. We really do have to man up and kick the shit out of people who are entirely innocent. Clearly that's not a good thing, but it's what we do.
The people that we don't massacre in Libya will be well placed to form a nice new shiny nation.
Excellent, then we wont be at the back of the queue any more.
I really don't mind being at the back of a queue. The big things in the world just are, and the small things can wait.
Sturgeon is too scared to do anything that might upset them, so she will try not to do anything.
cept the things she is already doing have already upset them.
This, on Named Persons, is written by a supporter, and printed in the Nat onal...
In this instance, when considering Named Person, I’m looking to our Nordic neighbours. Instead of a beacon of what could be, I’m seeing something I desperately don’t want. Scotland has to think hard about the implications of bringing the government into our family lives. And what could happen if that power is misused.
One person is not them having trouble. Most people realise that a simple policy where a child can get help if they really need help is not an issue but a great idea.
"Most people" as in 24%?
Asked if "it is right for every child to be assigned a named person to monitor their well-being", a total of 24% of respondents agreed
It is hard to find someone having a better referendum campaign than Dominic Raab. The man is a hidden gem. Why have the Tories not put him in a better ministerial role before now? He shows all the knowledge and substance that people like Sajid Javid have lacked.
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
Like they did after gay marriage?
Then voted in a Conservative majority government?
you can pile on the straws but at some stage the camel's back breaks.
and since we are now effectively in a 2 party system the conservatives are sitting at circa 37% and not the 40+% of the 80s and 90s.
So where have those Tory voters gone ? And how many more will they need to to lose to become minority - 1% ?
Remembering of course that Dave will be gone next time.
If the outcome is similar to this week's MORI poll, then centre right voters will have split 2:1 for Leave, while left of centre voters will have split 3:1 for Remain. The government will have won a victory over its own supporters. Maybe its supporters will just think "no hard feelings" but I wouldn't count on it.
Sturgeon is too scared to do anything that might upset them, so she will try not to do anything.
cept the things she is already doing have already upset them.
This, on Named Persons, is written by a supporter, and printed in the Nat onal...
In this instance, when considering Named Person, I’m looking to our Nordic neighbours. Instead of a beacon of what could be, I’m seeing something I desperately don’t want. Scotland has to think hard about the implications of bringing the government into our family lives. And what could happen if that power is misused.
One person is not them having trouble. Most people realise that a simple policy where a child can get help if they really need help is not an issue but a great idea.
"Most people" as in 24%?
Asked if "it is right for every child to be assigned a named person to monitor their well-being", a total of 24% of respondents agreed
I bet less than 5% would be able to tell you what it was. Easy to get that kind of answer. It will be of no concern to anyone apart from the London losers parties.
The problem will not be that LEAVE lose, it'll be that REMAIN and Cameron in particular have made it a grudge match by playing dirty. They should have expected no less
Only if you view not rolling over as dirty.
The idea that a new entrant joining a queue at the back is viewed as a threat rather than the norm shows just how deluded some people are. Of course you join a queue at the back any one can see that, it shouldn't come as unexpected.
You keep repeating that, it doesn't make it right. In the real world you move people that are important to you to the front of the queue. If you are a busy executive with limited slots in your diary, you make damn sure to fill those slots with your most important investors and customers, not the guy that spends a couple of grand a month. It was most definitely a slight, it say you are not important enough for any sort of special treatment, you are a bit player that can take their place at the back of the queue with the other tin pot banana republics.
"First class passengers board first".
No it says that we are a less valued customer than their existing priority which is TTIP. that a market of 444 million customers is less valued than 64 million. That a half negotiated deal that has been getting negotiated for years already is higher priority than one that hasn't started negotiations yet.
Again that should come as a shock to the square root of zero people.
Behind TTIP and Behind every banana republic looking for a deal are not quite the same thing.
One person is not them having trouble. Most people realise that a simple policy where a child can get help if they really need help is not an issue but a great idea.
Also a policy that has been in place in some council areas for years.
The 'Ruth Davidson for 2nd' party found the NP policy such a grievous assault on liberty that when it passed through Holyrood, they..wait for it..abstained.
Farage said today that the US negotiated a trade deal with Australia in ten months, I don't know if that's correct but Gove needs to come out and counter Obama's claims with facts and figures.
It's not: U.S. first proposed a free trade agreement with Australia as far back as 1945. In more recent times, the prospect of an Australia-U.S. FTA was raised in the 1980s by the Hawke Government, and in 1992 U.S. president George H. W. Bush offered to begin FTA negotiations with Australia, but was turned down by Australian Labor Party Prime Minister Paul Keating.[1]
It was not until early 2001, after the election of George W. Bush in the U.S. and with John Howard in power in Australia, that an Australia-U.S. FTA finally began to take shape. In April 2001, President Bush signalled his interest in pursuing an FTA with Australia provided "everything is on the table". Following this, in 2004, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade commissioned a private consultancy – the Centre for International Economics (CIE) – to model the economic impacts of such an agreement. Negotiations for the FTA began in April 2003 and after five rounds of negotiations held in Canberra, Hawaii and Washington, D.C., the text was finally agreed to in February 2004, and signed off on by Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick in Washington in May 2004.
It all depends on the political will - since the UK will be the supplicant it might go very quickly: "Sign here" - but were unlikey to get a better deal than the EU - "who to piss off, a 64 million market or a 444 million market?" Difficult.
Face it, HMS Anglosphere is holed below the waterline and going down by the bow....
Negotiations started in April 2003, the thing was signed in May 2004 = 13 months.
One person is not them having trouble. Most people realise that a simple policy where a child can get help if they really need help is not an issue but a great idea.
Also a policy that has been in place in some council areas for years.
The 'Ruth Davidson for 2nd' party found the NP policy such a grievous assault on liberty that when it passed through Holyrood, they..wait for it..abstained.
I am waiting for Cut n paste to explain it to me, that should be a laugh.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
It seems that the payback is going to consist of self-harm though? They are so angry they are going to mutilate their own party.
Farage said today that the US negotiated a trade deal with Australia in ten months, I don't know if that's correct but Gove needs to come out and counter Obama's claims with facts and figures.
It's not: U.S. first proposed a free trade agreement with Australia as far back as 1945. In more recent times, the prospect of an Australia-U.S. FTA was raised in the 1980s by the Hawke Government, and in 1992 U.S. president George H. W. Bush offered to begin FTA negotiations with Australia, but was turned down by Australian Labor Party Prime Minister Paul Keating.[1]
It was not until early 2001, after the election of George W. Bush in the U.S. and with John Howard in power in Australia, that an Australia-U.S. FTA finally began to take shape. In April 2001, President Bush signalled his interest in pursuing an FTA with Australia provided "everything is on the table". Following this, in 2004, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade commissioned a private consultancy – the Centre for International Economics (CIE) – to model the economic impacts of such an agreement. Negotiations for the FTA began in April 2003 and after five rounds of negotiations held in Canberra, Hawaii and Washington, D.C., the text was finally agreed to in February 2004, and signed off on by Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick in Washington in May 2004.
It all depends on the political will - since the UK will be the supplicant it might go very quickly: "Sign here" - but were unlikey to get a better deal than the EU - "who to piss off, a 64 million market or a 444 million market?" Difficult.
Face it, HMS Anglosphere is holed below the waterline and going down by the bow....
Negotiations started in April 2003, the thing was signed in May 2004 = 13 months.
Sunil, these CCHQ employess don't care about facts , they push whatever lies they are told to.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
What are LEAVE refuseniks going to do?
Jezza .. Farage .. Farron ....
Spoiled for choice springs to mind .... if you have a sense of humour.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
It seems that the payback is going to consist of self-harm though? They are so angry they are going to mutilate their own party.
No, actually I think most will just shrug and walk away, that is what I intent to do. I used to be a member of the Conservative Party, before it became the Lib Dems in Blue Suits Party.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
What are LEAVE refuseniks going to do?
Jezza .. Farage .. Farron ....
Spoiled for choice springs to mind .... if you have a sense of humour.
Disgruntled voters aren't obliged to make any choice. They won't bother voting.
I suspect what annoys eurosceptic Tories most is the way Cameron has cavorted with the parties natural enemies in order to secure his "triumph". That picture with Pantsdown and the EU troughing Kinnock will be difficult to forget.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
It seems that the payback is going to consist of self-harm though? They are so angry they are going to mutilate their own party.
It's not exactly hard to find irrational anger in the Leave camp right now, is it?
...which is why Obama's successor also gave the same message.
Oh, wait...
HRC sees herself as Continuity Obama so it's hardly surprising what her stance is.
HRC did not use a disparaging and insulting phrase like "back of the queue" while talking to the British, on British soil, in front of our own smirking, grovelling twat of a prime minister.
She used the language you'd expect. "We want to see the UK stronger in the EU" etc etc. all that is fine. if Obama has stuck to diplomatic speech like that, this would also have been fine. US politicians are entitled to an opinion on a major geopolitical event like Brexit.
But Obama went way further, and demeaned himself, his office and D Cameron.
She did hold forth on Northern Ireland like it was her back garden a few years ago though. We need to realise as a country that the US sees us as nothing more than another sphere that they control. Perhaps they have since WW2, but recently the mask has slipped more and more. Even Mitt Romney was at it before the Olympics, and he hadn't even won.
They are so angry they are going to mutilate their own party.
200,000 a year immigration, £25bn a year plus on EU/Overseas spending whilst running never ending budget deficits, PMs who invite in foreign dignitaries to give us 'a talking to'.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
It seems that the payback is going to consist of self-harm though? They are so angry they are going to mutilate their own party.
It's not exactly hard to find irrational anger in the Leave camp right now, is it?
They are so angry they are going to mutilate their own party.
200,000 a year immigration, £25bn a year plus on EU/Overseas spending whilst running never ending budget deficits, PMs who invite in foreign dignitaries to give us 'a talking to'.
Farage said today that the US negotiated a trade deal with Australia in ten months, I don't know if that's correct but Gove needs to come out and counter Obama's claims with facts and figures.
It's not: U.S. first proposed a free trade agreement with Australia as far back as 1945. In more recent times, the prospect of an Australia-U.S. FTA was raised in the 1980s by the Hawke Government, and in 1992 U.S. president George H. W. Bush offered to begin FTA negotiations with Australia, but was turned down by Australian Labor Party Prime Minister Paul Keating.[1]
It was not until early 2001, after the election of George W. Bush in the U.S. and with John Howard in power in Australia, that an Australia-U.S. FTA finally began to take shape. In April 2001, President Bush signalled his interest in pursuing an FTA with Australia provided "everything is on the table". Following this, in 2004, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade commissioned a private consultancy – the Centre for International Economics (CIE) – to model the economic impacts of such an agreement. Negotiations for the FTA began in April 2003 and after five rounds of negotiations held in Canberra, Hawaii and Washington, D.C., the text was finally agreed to in February 2004, and signed off on by Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick in Washington in May 2004.
It all depends on the political will - since the UK will be the supplicant it might go very quickly: "Sign here" - but were unlikey to get a better deal than the EU - "who to piss off, a 64 million market or a 444 million market?" Difficult.
Face it, HMS Anglosphere is holed below the waterline and going down by the bow....
Negotiations started in April 2003, the thing was signed in May 2004 = 13 months.
Sunil, these CCHQ employess don't care about facts , they push whatever lies they are told to.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
What are LEAVE refuseniks going to do?
Jezza .. Farage .. Farron ....
Spoiled for choice springs to mind .... if you have a sense of humour.
Disgruntled voters aren't obliged to make any choice. They won't bother voting.
Quite so.
Labour inclined voters may well not oblige Jezza with their favour in 2020.
And, if the failure to make an economic case is all that stands between victory and defeat, then that leaves the Union hanging by a thread.
Not really.
The next 5 years is crunch time for the SNP. They won't call another referendum they can't win, and people are already starting to question the thing they are doing, or not doing.
They'll be different people from the same duffers & serial failures that have been questioning the thing they've been doing for the last 9 years?
McTernan's taken over from Iain Martin as one of your go-to-guys, hasn't he?
It occurs to me that part of Cameron's problem is that europhiles like him, and REMAIN pundits and politicians in general, simply do not understand the eurosceptic mindset.
To most europhiles (apart from the craziest Federalists, who constitute about 1% of the population) the EU is generally a goodish thing, with some slight irritating aspects, but nothing to get too worked up about. Nice for trade. Good for roaming with your phone. Holidays in Dordogne mmm.
Thus they cannot comprehend how passionate and frustrated many sceptics feel about the issue of the EU. For 5 or even 10% of the population the awful EU is an overriding cause, more important than anything else. These people also tend to the perception that they have been betrayed on the EU for decades (they have) and that they are being betrayed again (we shall see).
This is why Cameron badly underestimated the number of rebels he'd have in his party, and even in his Cabinet.
It also means the europhiles are underestimating how angry and vengeful the sceptics will be, after REMAIN wins the vote. Sour grapes of course, the whining of losers perhaps, but it is the case. That 5% will want blood. And many of them are core Tory voters.
The best analogy I can think of is the problems David Trimble faced after 1998. He didn't command a majority among Unionist voters, so his position gradually deteriorated.
If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world?
Especially since their excuse for losing (which they are already running) is "a big boy (Cameron) did it, and ran away"
No, if we lose this, the reason will be because Remain got twice as much funding, at the expense of the taxpayer, in direct contravention of the views of the Electoral Commission.
I've read some rubbish on here but that really takes the biscuit.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
What are LEAVE refuseniks going to do?
Jezza .. Farage .. Farron ....
Spoiled for choice springs to mind .... if you have a sense of humour.
Well in terms of voters it just takes 10% of Tory loyalists to switch to UKIP permanently and the Tories will be denied a majority forever.
In terms of MPs, as Mr Meeks has posited, it just needs 10 MPs to block virtually all government legislation.
Cameron is acting like he has a majority of 150 and the vast support of rightwing voters, members and activists. It's nuts.
In GE terms UKIP are a spent force under FPTP and with Jezza at the helm the choice the Britisih electorate will have is stark and patently clear.
Clearly a small majority presents problems but only if all the opposition have their ducks in place and no PM is going to act as if he's in a weak position - Cameron has learnt the lesson of John Major's stumbling administration. Cameron acts accordingly - ruthless, calculating, confident and with a genial smile and sense of ease.
What would you have him do - Rush around shouting "Don't Panic !!"
Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago when I suggested it, right?), the dynamic is not going to be about holding Cameron to ransom, but about jockeying for position in the battle for his successor. So Alastair's last sentence is probably the key to this.
Why is it a safe assumption with two months to go? Let's at least see a few post Obama polls first!
My guess is that the post-Obama polls won't show the effect of the Obama intervention; they might conceivably even show a move towards Leave. Remember, answering an opinion poll is a nice cost-free opportunity to tell people to get stuffed. Actually voting to stuff yourself is a different matter altogether.
As we saw in SINDYREF- after Osborne's "Sermon on the Pound" support for Indy increased - yet Indy was already fatally holed below the waterline as the SNP never convincingly undid the damage Osborne had done to their case. HMS Anglosphere is in a similar position.
The way I see it, the SINDYREF was a damned close-run thing which saw the pro-Union side throw away a lead of almost two to one, and left the SNP firmly in charge in Scotland.
The failure to make a convincing economic case lost the referendum.
so on that basis are you now saying Remain will lose ?
It's HMS Anglosphere which Obama has holed below the waterline.....
Lol, I was rather under the impression it was HMS Conservative Party .
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
Those on here supporting IN for no other reason than Cameron does are going to be very sheepish at some stage in the next 6 months. Even if IN wins he is fatally discredited.
Are Labour supporters really going to back a Cameron fronted campaign? I think not.
You say this regularly, do you actually have any evidence that Labour supporters are not going to vote Remain because of Cameron? If you don't then t's just wishful thinking.
It occurs to me that part of Cameron's problem is that europhiles like him, and REMAIN pundits and politicians in general, simply do not understand the eurosceptic mindset.
I find this naive. Cameron is the ultimate political insider, and always has been. A functionary of an international system. He does as he's bidden. I seriously doubt we'll ever know what he thinks about Europe or much else.
Do you think this dismal, juvenile cat-calling is going to help the Tories, and Cameron, once the referendum is over?
The LEAVERS won't forget. And they are far too numerous to be "purged". Unless by purge you mean "life-threatening amputation".
REMAIN are going to win as I have always said. But the way REMAIN have conducted the campaign, from Cameron's craven lies right down to the petulance of the most minor players - e.g. your embarrassing little emissions - means the LEAVERS will want payback.
What are LEAVE refuseniks going to do?
Jezza .. Farage .. Farron ....
Spoiled for choice springs to mind .... if you have a sense of humour.
Disgruntled voters aren't obliged to make any choice. They won't bother voting.
Quite so.
Labour inclined voters may well not oblige Jezza with their favour in 2020.
A Tory victory built on so many maybes over which they have no control. Corbyn might be in place. Labour party leadership election rules might remain the same. The electorate might believe the scare stories about Corbyn and McDonnell.
Well, as for the last one, it's not working against Khan in London.
If these people don't have the gumption to fight a tough referendum campaign, how can they be trusted to renegotiate Britain's new place in the world?
Especially since their excuse for losing (which they are already running) is "a big boy (Cameron) did it, and ran away"
No, if we lose this, the reason will be because Remain got twice as much funding, at the expense of the taxpayer, in direct contravention of the views of the Electoral Commission.
I've read some rubbish on here
To be fair, you do give as good as you get in this regard.
I really can't remember a British politician with less class than Nigel Farage. I remember some oafish characters on the left like Derek Hatton but even he doesn't come close.
Somehow I doubt the next Tory leader will be a Europhile. The endless griping and civil wars are always down the the fact that the leader (esp Heath, Major, Dave）is not where his base is.
Comments
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/324c86ca-0705-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html#axzz4629s5rDr
But that is not the same as support for leaving the EEA. In my fund management business, going to EEA would mean... absolutely no negative consequences whatsoever. Going CO, would almost certainly mean we'd need to open an EU office to sell product out of, or using a local agent who took a third of our revenues.
The next 5 years is crunch time for the SNP. They won't call another referendum they can't win, and people are already starting to question the thing they are doing, or not doing.
Dave is really pissing off his own members. Now they will start to look for somewhere else to go.
It has never really been great at football or rugby.
Does have a lovely racecourse .
It is a lovely city to live in, and luckily for me , I live on a hill , so no flooding problems.
That will be scant comfort to me, I want us to leave the EU, but careful what you wish for toadies. Remember the pics of Maggie crying in the back of the car?
Then voted in a Conservative majority government?
A landslide of disappointed fans.
Sturgeon is too scared to do anything that might upset them, so she will try not to do anything.
Except the things she is already doing have already upset them.
This, on Named Persons, is written by a supporter, and printed in the Nat onal... http://www.thenational.scot/comment/vonny-moyes-where-is-the-line-between-child-protection-and-harmful-intrusion.16440
McTernan's taken over from Iain Martin as one of your go-to-guys, hasn't he?
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/441959652742664192
What percentage? More of the old order collapsing in Europe. Interesting going round the Hungarian parliament yesterday. They still have a place for members to leave their long cigars outside the chamber if they wish!
If I get time next week I'll have more on that address. Didn't realise that exaro news company sparta are linked to 788 790 Finchley Road. Make of that what you will.
Speaking personally, I am thinking of joining the Conservative Party simply so that I can do my bit to keep that incompetant areshole Osborne away from the the leadership.
and since we are now effectively in a 2 party system the conservatives are sitting at circa 37% and not the 40+% of the 80s and 90s.
So where have those Tory voters gone ? And how many more will they need to to lose to become minority - 1% ?
Remembering of course that Dave will be gone next time.
LEAVE are repeating their mistake.
By not voting the Cons task gets harder let alone voting for other parties,
Post EUref as I say the bill has yet to be presented to Cameron and then the fun starts.
Everything comes to he who waits.
Who will believe the SNP's forecasts next time?
"Are Labour supporters really going to back a Cameron fronted campaign? I think not"
TCP
My brother is and all my friends are.
Everyone I know who are Labour Supporter are in the remain camp.
Even at work last week the only leave , were Conservative Supporters and me.
I know its only anedoctal and York City centric but when my father who reads the Daily Mail everyday was wavering , I thought this game is up.
My brother got him wavering about workers rights and permanent conservative rule.
So Corbyn does have an influence, when they know you are out of power for a long time.
Trump 38 .. Kasich 25 .. Cruz 14
Clinton 43 .. Sanders 34
https://news.brown.edu/articles/2016/04/taubman-poll
One person is not them having trouble. Most people realise that a simple policy where a child can get help if they really need help is not an issue but a great idea.
It's mandatory State monitoring of every child. And it is going to bite Nicola
Again that should come as a shock to the square root of zero people.
"Most people" as in 24%?
Asked if "it is right for every child to be assigned a named person to monitor their well-being", a total of 24% of respondents agreed
http://stv.tv/news/politics/1347998-two-thirds-find-named-person-policy-unacceptable-says-poll/
...which is why Obama's successor also gave the same message.
Oh, wait...
Asked if "it is right for every child to be assigned a named person to monitor their well-being", a total of 24% of respondents agreed
http://stv.tv/news/politics/1347998-two-thirds-find-named-person-policy-unacceptable-says-poll/
I bet less than 5% would be able to tell you what it was. Easy to get that kind of answer. It will be of no concern to anyone apart from the London losers parties.
tricky to know who will win SPOTY Team of the Year.
Leicester or Scrapheap's Fantasy league team....
And then that you hadn't actually read it.
Luckily not all of the electorate are as ignorant.
PS: I have grandchildren so of course it potentially could affect my family, but then being ignorant how would I know.
http://static.kurier.at/elections/bp16/?apaactualSection=apaMap&_ga=1.123543305.321062945.1461504611
Or simply put:
"Springtime for Austria and Hofer"
And you are probably going to switch to REMAIN anyway, at least once before the vote.
5...4...3...2...1....before somebody claims "Its because of the cuts innit Bruv..."
The 'Ruth Davidson for 2nd' party found the NP policy such a grievous assault on liberty that when it passed through Holyrood, they..wait for it..abstained.
The LDs did - remember the new boundaries vote?
Oh, wait...
Jezza .. Farage .. Farron ....
Spoiled for choice springs to mind .... if you have a sense of humour.
It's embarrassing that you are perpetuating it, really.
Apparently.
Which strikes me as a reasonable stance, all told.
https://bigmart73.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/163361_144773305676566_1810553690_n.jpg
Funny, you normally post a mocking 'SAFE SPACE' when this kind of thing happens.
What exactly are the Tory Party?
Blue Lib Dems? Leftover Blairites?
Labour inclined voters may well not oblige Jezza with their favour in 2020.
@GdnPolitics: Britons may need visa to visit Europe post-Brexit, says dominic raab https://t.co/A2aIpY6Jsc
Clearly a small majority presents problems but only if all the opposition have their ducks in place and no PM is going to act as if he's in a weak position - Cameron has learnt the lesson of John Major's stumbling administration. Cameron acts accordingly - ruthless, calculating, confident and with a genial smile and sense of ease.
What would you have him do - Rush around shouting "Don't Panic !!"
Well, as for the last one, it's not working against Khan in London.
Fingers crossed eh!